 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Of the Power Trading Hour. Here? Oh, on and on and on. Oh, again, huh? Okay, give it up. Thanks. And welcome to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour. And it's always the same thing. It doesn't matter where you're at. What you're doing? What position you are in. It is time to be here. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Let's put some lipstick on this pig. No, I don't think so, dude. That may be my day. I'm just guessing. Oh, I forgot to do that, too. Didn't I? Okay. And sometimes you got to remind me out there. So we'll go live with our chart out here. And the thought for the day. The swordfish has no natural predators to be afraid of except the penfish, which is thought to be mightier. I like that one. Anyway, we got a market and it's no real surprise. Is it kind of a one-note Johnny out here until we go out and test low 4100s on the S&P cash or 410 on the spies? I do not think we could possibly have a low end. A ton of earnings. Some good, some bad. And what else do we have? What are the spies at right now? 417. So not that far, much farther. Only seven points lower. And again, at that point, maybe you get it. So first thing to do, we want to do is start looking at the volume. And it's Friday a little lighter, but not light enough. If we had 5 billion here, I'd be looking for a bounce before the end of the day. Maybe we get a little one, but I don't think there's a whole lot. We've got 6.8 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated tape. If you are unfamiliar with this, I'll give you a link to it. Just email me at path at tfnn.com. And of course, what else do we have out here? The volume is a little lighter, but not light enough. As I said, you get this close to a previous low. It's kind of like a magnet. It's going to come back and get it, especially if you came down there with a lot of volume. Your odds are that much better. But I don't understand. I had a lot of folks send me some emails over the last, I don't know, four or five hours. One was, you didn't like the way that Amazon and Apple ran into earnings? You know, a long time ago, I think previous to maybe 2005 or six before they changed the laws. If you released data, there wasn't a lot of blowback. If you were the CEO, if you gave the heads up to some people in the hedge fund community that you liked and bought some favors from them, now you can end up in jail. So there aren't a lot of people that know a lot of stuff. Because if you're CEO and you're making 100 million a year, you really want to throw that away for a little bit of good faith from some fund manager? Not anymore. Back in the olden days, if you were making a million dollars a year, maybe back in 2005, maybe you could make an extra couple hundred grand on the side, giving a little nod to the head, a little thumb of the nose to somebody and let them know the jig is up or that they should be going long. That didn't happen much anymore, if at all. I remember they caught so many of those folks in the quote-quote expert game. The one guy, I guess, is back trading now. But he hired a bunch of private investigators to put out phony ads for, what was it? Oh, for job applications. And they'd interview the folks and try to suck out anything that they knew about them. I mean, that's been the brain suck has been a long time tradition in Silicon Valley. But to actually get inside information by going after folks with phony job ads with something else, I think a handful of those folks went to jail. One guy lost a lot of his cash but he's back now, wasn't out. But you put a few people behind bars and, you know, does it still happen probably a little bit? But not that much. So if everybody starts selling off, I tend to think that someone believes something that someone told them by somebody else that it didn't originate with, the old telephone trick. So I didn't like that because there aren't a lot of leaks these days. If the, now the whole market went with it, got everybody sucked in. But am I predicting the end of the world? No. Am I predicting a break of 4100? No. This is one of the times where I talk about you should drive like, you should trade like you drive in fog. And that is just assume that you can't see as far as you think you can. You see about 25% as far in fog as you can in actual clear air. The problem, everybody believes in fog that they can still see the 100% that they can in clear air. So I don't have to make a decision until we see 4100 or 410 or so in the S&P cash. You got a lot of volume there that's going to take a lot to break it. Could we exceed it very shortly? And I think the answer is true. Now, we got a lot of confluence of events. On Monday, we really have kind of the first day of fun buying. You may even see a little bit of a markup. As I said before the end of the day, that's not uncommon. I'm not thinking you get a great deal. Let's keep an eye on it here. 417.11 is what I see, which is off to an half percent. But you get this close to a low. Just think of it as magnet or gravity. Can you put enough rockets on enough motors on a rocket to get it to go to the moon? You can. It's a lot tougher than to just go into orbit. So can you get a bounce on Monday? You can. But there's a great deal of things out there that I've had in my newsletter that suggests that we probably don't find a very credible low, I mean more than 24 hours, until maybe late next week. I think, you know, last fun buying lasted one whole day and then you got crushed like a baby seal on an ice flow or a redheaded stepchild or a rented mule. I like all three allegories. But that's not it. Anyway, we've got a lot of emails here. We'll go through as many as we can. I haven't looked in the den here. Is there anything here? Sound breaking up. Hopefully sound is better now. Don't know. Nobody in the den saying much of anything. When we come back, we'll do a little history. We'll get into some charts. Look at what I've seen. That'll be when we return like a bad rat. Are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return? Or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find a path of least resistance. David White's trading newsletter, The Path of Least Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. 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He says, I took your suggestion of the Microsoft Puts this morning. What do you think they expire out today? I'm holding for 280. I think we see that's where it's going to come out. Also, thanks for your call on Apple between 160 and 165. We're sitting at 160, yeah. I think I said it in the den. I don't remember if I said it on the radio or not yesterday, but I remember during earnings I brought it up a few times. They had a very big lock on Apple between 160 and 165 going into earnings. I wasn't buying all the upside of going to 180 or something that was being pushed out before their earnings call came out. Down 2%, is that a real big deal? Are they still kind of the class in the field? Yes. Are they immune to especially what they have, and we talked about going into this, which is supply constraints and labor production constraints. Could you go below and bust 160 today? It depends on how ugly it gets, but they're going to hold it to 160, I think, as long as they can. That's on the downside. Could you see a lot of people covering their short positions? Yes, Apple probably has too many shorts in it already. One of the things I did see that made me not want to buy puts for today and not go a lot farther into something else was huge short selling in the last 15 minutes of the day yesterday. Generally, when you see that, you're going to get a bounce. The downside is, if you don't get a bounce, you're in real trouble. That means that you probably had a lot of people that were spot-on in shorting. It's going to be hard to get those folks to hop off of that anytime soon. I'm not seeing a whole lot out here until maybe Monday. Maybe you get a little bit of a tail out here into the close. You're probably going to get some kind of bounce on Monday, maybe Tuesday, but my guess is it's going to be a little bit. Then, we're going to go really attack that 410-4400 area on the S&P cash. Give me call today 877-927-6648. Did I get everything out here? Okay, hopefully we got it. Why does it say something now? I've got something really weird going. There we go. Okay, hopefully we've got everything taken care of. See anything else? Okay. Okay. Yeah, I took the 287-50 puts this morning. What else did we have here? Great call holding tight on a bear stance against the bounce in the markets. Yesterday, I'm about holding puts. Okay. Do you have any information to show this is false? Please let me know. I've seen this kind of floating around. My guess is you're going to have to wait to know whether it's true or false into next year with some congressional investigations. But yeah, China is buying a huge amount of lithium and other rare earths in Afghanistan. And of course, our friends there in the Taliban will be spending that money. How much of that is corruption in the government? I do not know. But who knows? Maybe we'll know sooner than I think. Okay. Questions about other things going on? Let's do a little bit of history and then we'll move on. Yep, it's still short the rips and cover the dips. And I think that as long as the market continues to move lower, it's doing the job of the Fed and maybe a little less chance today that the Fed comes in and does a Pearl Harbor attack with higher interest rates. In 2004, the World War II Memorial opens up in Washington, D.C. to thousands of visitors providing overdue recognition for those 16 million U.S. men and women who served in the Second World War. The memorial is located at 7.4 acres on the former side of the Rainbow Pool, the National Mall between the Washington Monument and the Lincoln Memorial. The capital zone is seen to the east. Arlington Cemetery is just across the Potomac to the west. And of course, you've got to probably give a little tip of the hat to, of course, saving Private Ryan to kind of getting everybody to remember that just what everybody gave us and how weak and worthless we are today. But still a lot of great people in the military, even though they're trying to be forced off. But okay, what else out here? Let's get to the emails. First is natural gas. Do we have a double repo pattern that would set this up for a pullback into the summer and maybe a rebuy later on? You know, you've got a pretty good indication that this could come back to 15. What you don't have today is a lot of volume. Yesterday had 7.4 million shares today. You got about five. You need to close below the three by three. We don't have it. So this is not a prediction. You want to watch, but if you do close back below it. Pretty good indication that you're going to go back where it started. And my guess is that support comes in at about 1750 across the summer. No matter how much everybody yells and screams about natural gas. There's too much of it. A little bit too less now. But I think that's probably, I'm going to say August or September. Back there at $18 is probably where the next big run could get. And that next big run could go way above that next winter. Got an amber alert here. I can't turn those off. Bringing up XOM. I looked at that earlier this morning. I didn't see a lot of stuff. 85 was kind of looking at the low. What are we at here now? 85.72. So yeah. 85 on the close. I don't see a whole lot. You had a fairly nice setup in ExxonMobil with a garly pattern. Gave it up all fairly quickly. Came right back down to a gap. Attracted to support. You've got the bounce. A garly pattern, but it's an awful amount. Quick. If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector, as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. 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Let's take a quick look at that. I hope I'm not stuck in Hope mode. It never ends well. You really want to come out, at least in the Qs, and test 317. You got it in 315, but not light enough. So you might find the Qs holding up a little bit better than the S&P or the Spies, but you do have a light volume day. Like I said, you got fun buying. You might get a little bounce out of here. A lot of times, one of the... Here's what I'm going to say is the real downside to the Qs. And that's my power law vector indicator number that tries to get the energy between the highs and the lows out here. So you got a 15 on the way up. You got an 18 on the way down. Is it the end of the world? No. But it's one of the few times we've had this in the last 10 years. Generally, the downsides have been on lighter volume if they've been on a lower amount of time. If you get a bounce, the problem you have to worry about is that it just jumps the creek and goes through and you finally get a lot of volume. What I would love is it come down, go through that number, break it, and then come back up and close above it and see some folks in there. Now, even that means that you're not going to be off to a V bottom. Generally, if you come down on any more energy or even the same energy, you probably want to hope for the best. And in that, you're thinking about maybe some consolidation and once that consolidation is in, you move higher. If this came back down on much lighter volume in this leg from March 29th into April 27th, I would be thinking a lot more of a V than a U bottom. So, yeah. I'm trying to remember what it was. Let me find it here. Because when you talk about hope, it always, there's not a day that goes by that I don't think about three or four times in trading about about Jesse Livermore's saying it's not that one. It's this one from Jesse Livermore. The successful trader must fight these two deep-seated instincts. He must reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping, he must fear. Instead of fearing, he must hope. He must fear his loss may develop into a much bigger loss and hope that his profit may become a much bigger profit. And that's kind of it. You've always got to have your emotions on the opposite side of the market to really protect yourself and be sure enough to be unsure. If you're 100% sure, you're probably on the wrong side. If you're not nervous a little bit, you're probably on the wrong side. So, just keep an eye on that. So, we've got that. Okay. A question on Disney. Is there any pie out here? The problem I'd have with Disney is the same problem I had years ago with Facebook and Google and the rest of these guys, and that is they've hitched their wagon to China and China's done the pretty much the Chinese Communists have done the same thing, which is they figure out everything these guys do and then put them on their way because at some point even though all these companies have horribly prostated themselves and done horrible things like Google and Facebook to try to stay in China eventually there is a bridge too far that even these folks won't do for the almighty dollar and that's it. So, you know what I'd love to see in Walt Disney and that is them getting kicked out of China then they probably would may find some kind of low but it doesn't matter what it is there's only a couple companies out there and I don't think Tesla is any different. These guys are all over there it is the proverbial scorpion on the back of the frog. Everybody wants to pretend that Russia is the big problem and it's not a small one but we have to know that more people are dying in slavery and everything else in China than they are in Ukraine but it's easy for us to focus on signs of war signs of evil especially in China a lot harder to see but all these companies at one time or another have covered for extreme wrongdoing and evil by China and have all eventually left China with their tail between their legs I think at least on Disney's part what I'm looking for is that everybody doesn't believe that there's some kind of huge 500 million subscriber share market that they're going to get from these guys that as soon as they got that successful China would find some way to do it and again the proverbial scorpion on the back of the frog why do you do it and it's because it's in my nature and I think a lot of people think especially smart reminds me of Die Hard remember the kind of oily guy with the beard who thought he could negotiate with the terrorists they all think that they're real smart much smarter than everybody else and the reality is you're dealing with pretty much the equivalent of the mob and just like another good movie reference out here that was good fellas they'll make you sign lots of papers for huge amounts of insurance and then fire bomb your place and make you give them money probably the best description of dealing with communists China as I can say Chinese people great people Chinese communists no different than Stalin's communists or Putin's communism or any of the rest of these places that are nothing more than thinly veiled mob hangouts across the country and and I'm more of a I'm somebody in the den brought up issues with Florida I think it's a pebble I think the big long term thing is do they have people leaving their subscription service the answer is yes and a lot of them lately there are no different than the rest of these folks that made a bunch of money in streaming during the lockdown and that's going lower they've got at least from the folks that look at this stuff which is mostly looking at internet traffic data it's fairly significantly down over the last month and it may have nothing to do with what's in the news headlines it may just be more of an issue with people seeing most of what's out there I think somebody else pointed out a pretty good they're wanting good stuff to watch and the one big thing that made Disney in streaming was of course the Mandalorian and the executives couldn't wait to get in there and screw it up and the question is is it third season we'll be back in a minute are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at tiger at tfnn.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter the Technology Insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living edge of technology his weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices, target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week you can get the Technology Insider at tfnn.com for only $37.50 Sign up for David's newsletter the Technology Insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try it risk free today with our 30-day money back guarantee tfnn educating investors Are China A shares hot or not? 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they hear 5 points away 6 points away from where I think we're going to find at least the first buyable low I do like headlines if you look at the dredge report first it went after the dollar yesterday today it's going after the markets and amazon and netflix and the rest generally we start seeing those headlines it didn't instantly I give it a couple of days but I got some other questions out here what do I think on amazon I think I said this earlier in the den I didn't like of course the way it was rolling up into earnings yesterday generally they're in the big leak out there I don't think it's a big surprise that both apple and amazon are having supply problems we've talked about it for a while generally in the stock market it doesn't matter until it matters and then it's the only thing that matters so we're probably going to see it we're also I've got a lot of stuff in my newsletter that says we're pretty close to low generally the last of the move is 20% of it it's about not quite 20% but almost double the losses in the last bit of a move than you would normally have so look for that I think we're going to have some big kind of push maybe it happens today maybe we could clean the decks off for monday which would be fine but just expect that you're going to have a big move you're going to have everybody do the wrong thing they're going to sell they're going to do everything else that's wrong and that's how you make money in the stock market by just looking at the mistakes that people have made the past because they're going to make the same mistakes in the future so that's it now another question out here about this would I be out at 280 on microsoft yes I've already got buys in for my puts to get out of them I don't want to be I'm not waiting for the last five minutes another excellent trade I know I'm always just one away from another one but as I say at the end of every show to remind myself sell when you can but that also means even when you're on the right side we're not playing chicken here you make a bunch of money take it don't be a pig as they always say there's those old chestnuts around the market are there for a reason they stand the test of time bulls make money bears make money and pigs get slaughtered so take your cash especially in the last week how many of these things have you sure that the bottom was in and that is the basis of a bear market and that is it's always offering the bulls something some little bit of scrap of hope until they get crushed in which case they lose their hope and their will and they sell and a bottom is in so let's look for that look for signs of people capitulating looking for signs of everybody wanting to go short I couldn't really get it in fact somebody brought it up in the den I couldn't find anybody or let me put it this way I couldn't find but a few people thinking about shorting and when everybody starts shorting generally it's time to reflect stop and reflect Mark Twain when everybody tends to agree with you it's time to stop and reflect but again we're probably going to have one of the first bear bottoms sounds bad we're going to have probably a bottom in a bear market for the first time and we've seen the kind of rips that you get in the top you're probably going to have a couple of opportunities to buy the low the first one is going to make you sick because it's going to go back and retest it the second one maybe on lighter volume in consolidation you're going to have your opportunity but as I've been saying for probably two or three or four weeks more than likely that first week of May comes with some level of either a lower high put into the market consolidation into the three day weekend taking you into Memorial Day is that right I always hate mixing up Memorial Day and Labor Day at the end of May anyway so we'll see that but yes we've got a bunch of questions out here yes I'd be out at 280 I'm not going to get greedy on the puts on Microsoft and no a lot of times there just isn't anything that I can do in a newsletter then tell you exactly where I'm headed before the market ever opens by the time 15 minutes goes by that's an eternity on options that expire on Friday what else do we have here I've got a couple more emails David I'm along the SQQQ and SDS would you close those now no you don't have to worry about them expiring really at the end of the day but would I close them at the close yes and I may close them I'd watch for the last 15 minutes of the day and if you kind of get in and you're real low that's probably good if you bounce before that you're probably going to get yet another sell off into the close and then I take the money at the close and neither one of those is going to give you 100% right but that's generally the way I trade it if it bounces early I stick with it if it bounces late and if it doesn't bounce until like a quarter till the close is generally well I close them out but yes I would be on the side of closing those out into fund buying on Monday you're going to get a bounce I don't know how big it's going to be and then my guess is everybody's going to reshort it but there's a long history if you go back and look in the charts of going into fund buying and getting everybody bearish right before they pop it for fund buying so yeah could we have another 100 points up on Monday in the S&Ps or Tuesday between the two yes and then I just suspect everybody's going to if we don't hit and test those lows first I think we're probably going to see everybody just reshort the market and you're going to get one more retest but you need a retest of that 4100 410 area 411 area on the S&P wise okay that got a couple more emails let's take a look wow I didn't know I can still get insurance on my 25 year old car okay bear bottom blue moon blue moon bottom the only thing you get from picking bottoms yeah yeah yeah safe nor hygienic okay lots of bear stuff in here so everybody's getting bearish and as I said at the very beginning of the show generally it's short the rips and cover the dips so a little bit different but yeah again don't get too greedy as I've said now for four weeks the market's going up three-fourths of the time so when you get a big down press like on this maybe it lasts a few days you're going to have a big rip it generally takes a lot of money and weight like another opportunity to jump on back sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure you need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's youtube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8.30am to 4pm eastern for free each host is an experienced trader the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the 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about trying to buy Amazon out here I think I covered it maybe I did earlier in the show and that is I suspect a great deal of people were chasing profits and probably hugely levered up in the hedge fund community on a dip down on a gap down like this with volume I would never consider about buying just you might be right this time but I doubt it the odds are against you that buying within three days of a big gap down is a smart idea you know if you're talking about a 15 minute chart and you're talking about getting a few bucks out of it I don't understand why you would go after Amazon there's probably easier trades out there but at the same time as I said wait for the margins to go through wait for three days I kind of always think of it as this way and that is what's a wait for it to tell tell you what to do and and I just don't touch them I don't do it I don't do it I don't do it and I paid a lot of money to learn to not do it so I'm not going to learn that lesson once again especially in a down market now another question that comes across from Sam about whether or not I would what would make me think about buying which is always a good question and that is if we come in and the Dow is down 800 or 900 points on Monday morning I think that would get me to the point of thinking that I may not go long equities I might want to buy some calls in the morning but I'm going to have to see something that makes everybody want to just throw up so sick that they don't want anything to do with it everybody telling us how the market is going to 2000 in the S&Ps get a few of those folks out there so far I've watched CNBC just a little today just to see whether or not people had started to throw the towel in and most of the normal flakes and shills are still there generally when they get negative it is the time to just go positive so I'm still thinking that there's probably some downside out here that 4,000 maybe even down to 4,000 a couple hours just to freak everybody out and maybe that's the best time to be buying some calls in the market to claim it to your risk I don't like buying that kind of stuff on Steam Monday I remember to cover building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most