 What is going on ladies and gentlemen, let me turn down the volume here before I forget on this music Welcome to another show of Let's Talk Crypto. I am your host Bitcoin Jay Today is the 31st of October 2023. So happy Halloween to all of those who celebrate it Today, we're gonna be talking about a lot of spooky and scary things Um, especially specifically tomorrow tomorrow we have We got some stuff coming up tomorrow Of course the interest rate decisions which can definitely impact prices and introduce some volatility into the markets So we're gonna be talking a little bit about that. We're gonna cover that what our predictions are on that what we might expect from that And then we're also going to be talking about or of course, we're gonna look over Prices we're gonna have an overview of the entire market. What's been going on in the last seven days since we last spoke We're gonna take a look at my analysis. Of course, we're gonna take a look at some of the headline news for this week It's been kind of a slow week for headline news and and then of course we're gonna wrap it up with a Bitcoin price analysis where I pretty much go over everything that's been going on where what the price is doing and Give you guys my Perspective on it and how I'm going to be trading it this week basically so At the end of everything, of course, we're gonna do a Q&A So if you guys have any questions about anything that is covered in today's video Drop it in the comments and and then I'll try to get to those questions at the end of the analysis So without further ado, let's go ahead and jump right in. Let me say Excuse me. Let me say hello to Yanis Happy Halloween to you as well Appreciate you tuning in and being in here. Let's uh, so let's let's jump right into it Let me switch over to the monitor here and we can see that We're currently sitting in that thirty four thousand dollar range We basically moved up here since last week Pretty much a week ago, wasn't it? It was on Monday. We had the big move So, yeah, we pretty much been as you guys can see we're just consolidating here Which is a very normal thing to happen after a such a big move like we saw over the last two weeks So and we're gonna talk a little bit more about this Later on but You can see that currently if we kind of zoom out You can see that we're at a very big area of resistance here and I think we spoke about this a little bit last week But we will touch on it again today So let's let's see what the rest of the market is looking like here Let me just kind of refresh it refresh this here And and we're gonna we're gonna be taking a look over the last seven days You can see bitcoins only up about 1% over the last week So it hasn't really moved too much has been mostly consolidating as we just saw there We do see XRP up over 7% so I had a nice move up to that 60 cent range We have Solana up over 17 and a half percent. So it's currently at 36 dollars guys This is one of those coins one of those projects that we've been talking about endlessly, right for Probably the past year or two Because we definitely believe that not only is this probably gonna hit a hundred but it should it could potentially it has a potential Would it hit 200 plus during the next two years So that was one of our favorite projects there And the next big one is chain link as well one of our favorite projects here up over 11 dollars It's up over 12 percent this week Then we have a polka dot up over five percent We have avalanche up over 10 percent finally back up over that $10 mark and then at number 25 We has we have a cosmos atom up over a 13 percent. So Let's let's take a look at the top Gainers and losers over the last in the top 100 over the last week We the top gainer right now is Thor chain up over 35 percent gala up to it up over 26 percent Bebe once again making some moves back in the top 100 and it's up over 21 percent Bit torrent up over 18 percent in Salana up over 17 percent Then the biggest losers in the last week is meetup protocol up over. I mean down over 20 percent rated radix down over 10 percent maker down over 8 percent stacks down over 8 percent as well Let's move on to the Economic calendar for this week because this is where things are going to get a little interesting here over that over the next few days Specifically tonight and tomorrow so As you can see here on the economic calendar tomorrow We have the Fed interest rate decision at 2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time Followed by the Fed press conference. All right, so let's talk a little bit about those two Hmm So the the Fed interest rate decision basically they at 2 o'clock Eastern Standard Time they release a Decision on on what they're gonna do with interest rates. So Whether they're going to hike it Cut it or pause it. So the last two it's been paused and Now for this one as you can see the consensus is that once again, there's going to be another pause And if we look over here, this is a probability chart from CME group You can see target rate probability for tomorrow 97.2 percent probability of a pause and a 2.8 percent probability of a cut So it's very unlikely that there's a cut very unlikely that there's a hike So we're most likely getting that pause And as we start moving over to December, you can see 69 percent for a pause once again and in January once again 59 percent for a pause Trying to see when when does the We have another pause expected in March another pause expected in May and of course all this can change at any given time, right? so by June is when the market is starting to expect a a cut here and July We're expected to have that cut already happening And and possibly another cut is what they're they're beginning to to put there in the probabilities So that's just kind of a look into the future But for now the main focus is this one right here and that's most likely what's going to happen there tomorrow So as long as that happens we shouldn't have We shouldn't see Anything too crazy as far as volatility in prices as long as there is a pause tomorrow Which is what the market is expecting what the market has already priced in Everything should be as you know normal right normal business going forward Now where things could get tricky is if there's anything else. So if for some reason there's a surprise hike Then you can expect the markets to definitely dump if there's a surprise cut you can expect markets to take off So the market has priced in a pause anything else That's when you can expect a lot of volatility within the market as long as it's a pause It's probably gonna be you know a non-event basically now what we do have to focus on though is after that at 230 p.m. We have the Fed press conference Now the reason this is important is because they start answering questions. That's when Jerome Powell gets on gets on there starts answering questions and potentially hinting Towards the future right potentially hinting towards the next interest rate decision and Whether and they might give a hint on if they're still planning to continue pausing or if they're planning to hike Hike interest rates or of course cut interest rates. I'm not expecting a cut anytime soon. They've said it multiple times over I'm expecting probably another pause going forward I think that's what markets are expecting as well So that's what's expected if there's any hint of anything in That that isn't a pause then the markets are going to react accordingly. So You got to be prepared for any volatility at 2 30 p.m. It's basically from 2 30 to 3 o'clock They'll be talking. There could potentially be some volatility there if there's anything, you know that we're not expecting So that's that's the main things that are on the agenda for this week Tomorrow is going to be the basically the main thing and then the last thing that I want to talk about that's on the agenda for this week is It's the close of the monthly candle So let me kind of zoom out here So this is the biggest candle that we've had since January of this year. So January we had a move up 39.98% and This month, we've had a move up of 27.6%. So you can see in March We had a move of 23% so that one is comes in at third place But yeah, this month October biggest second biggest move of the year now remember we spoke about October at the beginning of this year at the end of last month. I'm sorry at the beginning of this month at the end of Last month, right? We showed you guys the The returns Monthly and we should we spoke about October and how it's Bitcoin's most bullish month in its history As you can see compared to everything else, this has the most green and once again, it is green yet again This is one two three four five years in a row where Bitcoin is green in October right the last time that we weren't green Was in December 2018 when we were in a clear bear market But even last year when we were in a bear market, we still were in the green at 5% so again October big green month for Bitcoin now we're moving into November. So in November It's interesting to look at because if we if we look at how many years it's been green in November. We have one two three four five six and then we have one two three four Red red months red November's historically, right? So that that gives us a 60% chance basically six out of ten times It's been green So it's not anywhere as as good as October has been historically, but it is a pretty good month overall for Bitcoin Usually right according to this to how it's done historically Now one thing that I do want to want to take a look at last time We had a really big month was 2021 then in November we we did have basically a pullback of 7% In 2020 we had a big month October and another big month in November in 2019 after a green month in October we had a pullback in November minus 17% In 2018 those that was a bear market. So we had red months both times 2017 bull market. We had green months both times 2016 we had green months in both October and November and it wasn't really the bull market yet in 2016 so 2016 it was was pretty much I would say where we are right now 2016 was The year pre halving I want to say and 2017 was the halving. So that would put us What was it? Oh, no, 20. I'm sorry 2015 would be pre halving 2016 was halving and 2017 was post halving So that's how that worked out. So if we if we were looking at Trying to compare just trying to we're trying to basically put the puzzle together here on how historically Pre halving it's done. So pre halving if it would have been on 2015 We can see that We had a green month just like here and it's pretty close, right? 33% 27% and then once again in November. We had another green month 19% Pre halving in 2019 was a little bit different because we had 10% 27% and then we have minus 17% so we did have a correction there and then this was a year of the halving and this was post halving so You know, we don't really know which way it's gonna go right because we're up a lot right now and Technically speaking we are due for a some sort of pullback or correction But we've seen it in the past where you know price can Continue up for another month and you can see here in In 2015 this was pretty much the same the same spot that we're in right now pre halving We had green green green so three green months in a row and then in January the year of the halving We started with a pullback in 2016 before then going back green, right? So, yeah, I'm not sure what to expect in November, but historically speaking It is a green month overall Technically speaking we are due for a pullback and we'll jump a little bit further into that when I do the analysis So let's go ahead and look over the news over the last week or so To see what's been going on in the markets We can see the UK to regulate crypto and stablecoins with finalized stringent rules So the UK the UK government has disclosed its ultimate set of rules for the regulation of crypto Assets and stablecoins it represents a significant milestone in the nation's Approach to digital currencies this action underscores a government's commitment to developing a comprehensive regulatory framework For crypto assets aligning them with traditional financial services so The basically they're they're they're trying to put something together to of course, you know make it regulatory put some rules within that crypto space and So that there won't be some so it won't be the wow-wow West right so, you know And and that's something that that of course is gonna happen everywhere and is it bullish or bearish for Bitcoin? I think overall long-term it could be Bullish and it probably will be bullish because with the rules and Regulation then that opens the gate for You know institution money, right and institution money is billions and billions of dollars So long-term it Regulation could bring more institutions and more money over so I think it is good for crypto now where where Where it could be bad for crypto is if it starts to if there's too many rules that are that's too tight and starts to basically hinder what crypto is all about and and it's you know what people are doing with it and and being so creative and And everything that that everyone's able to do with it, right? So we have to we do have to kind of keep an eye out But but I think long-term depending on obviously the rate what the regulation is it could be bullish overall Continuing over of course SBF that case is still going and he believed taking FTX customer funds was legal I I Have no words. I honestly don't know What to say Obviously this guy is not an idiot to think this so hopefully nobody is buying that This guy was smart enough to put this massive company worth billions of dollars together But he was not smart enough to get away with it. So Yeah, this is really baffling He didn't did not intentionally commit fraud is just the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard because Like you can act stupid now like people always think they're so smart then they get caught and then they want to act stupid Right, they want to play dumb all of a sudden Yeah, hopefully nobody's Falling for this for this nonsense here and he spends the rest of his life in jail probably US lawmakers see criminal charges against Binance and Tether So the US lawmakers have called on the DOJ to investigate and issue criminal charges against Binance and Tether regarding their potential role in illicit finance activities specifically senators Cynthia Lumis of Wyoming and French Hill of Arkansas Arkansas issued a letter to the DOJ on Thursday There they asked the department to carefully evaluate the extent to which Binance and Tether are Providing material support and resources to support terrorism Through violations of applicable sanctioned laws and the Bank Secrecy Act So Yeah, that's that's that's pretty wild. I don't know what's gonna come out out of that. I don't think Anything crazy should happen based on this but just that that's what's been in the news that came out a few days out In other news we have a Gensler The SEC chairman Said he said that 8 to 10 Bitcoin ETF filings are under review So this has of course encouraged and Made people more bullish overall Because we're everyone's expecting a an approval here soon. So once we get that approval We could definitely see that that first official approval. We're definitely gonna see a spike in Bitcoin's price however Remember that a lot of a lot of this approval news is already being priced in to Bitcoin so I think a lot of it is already getting priced in and because of the constant ETF approval news and because of the looming Inevitable approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. That's why we haven't had a read or a pullback yet We haven't had a big pullback yet that you know Technically would do for so. I think that that's why price has been holding up. So well here We do expect that that approval soon And if it doesn't happen soon, we might get a a further pullback here on Bitcoin If not, if if we do if we do get the approval soon Then we could see another spike. I would say to New Yearly highs Potentially to the 38 to 42 thousand dollar level So I would say that this year's maximum if I had to and this is obviously just a prediction Based on on a historical what Bitcoin's done historically If I had to just guess right and say okay, if the approval happens this year How high could Bitcoin go? I would say Between 38 to 42 is that next range where Bitcoin could go? So I would not be surprised if Approval came through in November and Bitcoin went from 34 to about 38, right? I think that's a pretty fair movement third we're at 34,000 right now when we got the the rumors about The approval about to happen last week. We went from what 20 We opened at 27 so from 27 to 35 That was what $8,000 move basically Now we've pulled back some We're at 34 Could we get another and and like I said, I think a lot of this is already priced in so I wouldn't expect Another $8,000 move on the use of approval unless we pulled back here I think if we pulled back from where we are right now 34,000 so let's say 30,000 and then we got that that approval news. I could see it going up $8,000 Setting it, you know, I think we'll definitely we would definitely break the highs here and then 38,000 would be the high that I would think around that time if this is if we pulled back to $30,000 if we stay here at 34 in this range Then I I say be still between 38 to $40,000 is probably the top and the absolute top being 42,000 42,000 was of course a previous all-time high And if we look back on history, it's played a pivotal role here multiple multiple multiple times over So I think that would be the ultimate high here for Bitcoin If we got that approval here in the next month or two so But yeah, so so they have eight to ten Bitcoin ETF filings under under review Of course, we're waiting for something for an approval here In other news the SEC charges a black rock with failing to disclose investment. So this came basically soon after The whole news with black rock Bitcoin ET spot ETF getting about to get approved, right? The SEC charged black rock for felons of properly disclosed investments that compromise a significant portion of a publicly traded fund It advices. This is according to the SEC statement that was released So to settle the charges black rock is agreeing to pay $2.5 million in penalty The SEC's order finds that from 2015 to 2019 Black rock multi-sector income trusts the BIT made significant investments through a lending facility in Aviron Group LLC Aviron is a company that developed print and advertising plans for one to two films per year so I mean this is a nothing burger 2.5 million dollars to a company that Manages billions and billions of dollars. It's basically like us getting fined You know a hundred dollars, right or $20. Maybe maybe it's like us for them 2.5 million dollars It's probably for us a fine of $25 like, you know, if we got a when we get a parking ticket like it sucks But it's it's only 20 25 bucks, right? It's not Where it's not something we ever lose sleep about that's that's pretty much what 2.5 million is for black rock So I don't think that's there's pretty much a nothing burger here. I don't think it it changes anything in anything, right? so Now that we've looked at all that Let's let's we're gonna jump into the analysis for this week basically every week I do a market analysis report in the discord group and Let me change the camera here and so every week I do a Analysis and report in the discord group. So I'm gonna break down one of the analysis part of the analysis that I did here and With you guys basically and then I'm going to share Some potential trades that I am looking at and how I will be approaching trading Bitcoin this week So stay tuned for that if you guys have any questions about anything that either we have already covered here today Or that's going on in crypto that you want me that you might have some Thoughts about or you want answered drop it in the comments right now and at the end of the analysis I'll be more than happy to answer it for you guys so let's go ahead and jump back here to the main monitor and And and let's talk some Bitcoin. Let me grab a sip of water really quick. All right so Let's see here Let's start we're gonna start like we always like to start top-down, right? So on Monday we opened up well Start starting with last week last week we opened up below 30,000 and And you know one week later. We're now sitting at 34,000 dollars Price has price ran up over 27.7 percent or seventy five hundred dollars in a span of two weeks This has been mostly fueled by Bitcoin spot ETF news, of course So it's news based events. These are hard to kind of predict or be ready for But the market what what's been happening with bitcoins price is a market's basically trying to price it in right? I know we haven't I haven't personally taken too many trades in the last week and the reason is that right now Technically speaking Bitcoin is definitely overextended and you can see that anytime we look back in history anytime. There's been a big move there's usually a Pullback or some time some type of consolidation some pop some type of retrace that follows We have not seen anything of those sorts yet in Bitcoin After those last these last two weeks We're only down basically a thousand dollars from the yearly highs that we set last week so that's why I haven't been taking any any trades here because it's hard right now to Go long at resistance But it's also hard to take a short when we have the Bitcoin spot ETF approves approvals looming Because the market is getting right now is very greedy and sentiment is very bullish So we don't want to be on the wrong side of the move, right? So it's a dilemma that we're currently stuck at now Let's let's break down some of the opportunities that we might have here As far as chart patterns Well, let's start with supporting resistance here on the monthly timeframe. So after After this move Well, we're on the weekly no we're on the month. Okay, so after the move here We're facing of course resistance here at $35,000 which has been a very important Level historically as both support and resistance on the biggest Support that we have right now to the downside would be $30,000 But $32,000 is also a big support level because again historically it's played a part So, you know kind of zoomed out here. We can see this green box This has been a big level of supporting resistance. We can see all the way if we look all the way back to 2020 we set a new all-time high here at this level then Basically, we set another new all-time high and we had a big pullback to the same exact level Then once again, it was used for three months here as support level Once again here used as a support level for another three or four months And then once this level was breached Just look at this massive massive move to the downside that we saw there Including on June of 2022 when we dropped 37 percent so I Definitely believe that a breach above this could lead to a massive run-up but I don't think that we're there yet because It just it just we're not in this stage of the bull market yet You this is a stage back in 2020 where we had you know a month of 28 percent move up 42 percent move up 46 percent move up 14 percent move up 36 percent move up 30 percent move up We're not there yet. We're not in that stage of the bull run yet So we're more like in maybe this stage here, right? Leading up to that. So let's see in October of pre halving Let's see where we were we're right here And we actually saw a move down in November. So October we had a 10 percent move up had a move down in November December it continued down and then kind of pushed back up a little bit and then in January it opened up on 30 percent Move up in March. This was an outlier Outlier because this of course was a pandemic But right after that in April That's when we started getting this massive move up and in this basically continued throughout the the rest of the year So this was the year of the halving here April was the month of the halving I want to say or it could have been in March March April was when we had the Bitcoin halving and then Basically at the end of the year is when this massive massive rally started So we could see something similar to this next year in 2024 In October like we could we're probably gonna see like this where we're gonna have big moves up But I think the the massive rally will probably be in of course in Towards the end of 2024 probably most likely so you can see here in October of 2020 is when this massive rally began it went all the way through March of 2021 before we got a very big pullback and then we had one more push to the upside Where we topped out November 2021 and then of course that's when we got back into the bear market So, you know thinking that we could see something like that again That would probably that puts us right now. We're in this stage here. We're most likely We're gonna be consolidating here over the next few months Maybe over the next six months until until the Bitcoin halving we could be you know We could still see some moves up move up moves to the upside, but we could also see some Pullbacks and moves back to the downside just kind of consolidating here I think we probably consolidate under at some, you know, somewhere under $42,000 for the next few months and Then once we break above 42,000 I think that's when we we can really get to start that rally get that rally going up And now where we basically just leave this previous all-time high in the dust I think hundred thousand dollars is pretty much programmed in As a level that we're probably gonna hit in 20 at the either at the end of 2024 or beginning of 2025 is When I think we would be reaching this price point here. So Now let's let's we've gone a little far into the future, so let's let's zoom Let's zoom in a bit into the weekly chart here And as you guys can see here on the weekly 35 of course is that big Resistance there we can see we have a wick up Usually that means that buyers are running out of steam up here, right when you start seeing wicks like this You can see we have we have a wick there. You can see we kind of saw something similar here We saw something similar here. So that usually means that that Buyers are running out of steam for now Doesn't mean that eventually it could pick back up because you start right here, too Where you know buyers are running out of steam and then we got another push up here Right, then we got a pullback. We got to push up We got a bunch of wicks there to the upside before another pull back down So could this be the beginning of a retracement? It definitely could be But like we said earlier the issue with trying to play this resistance right now is That there's just so much bullish momentum and we have the ETF approvals looming We don't know when those will come in but they could come in soon And you don't want to be on the wrong side of this trade So if you are looking to open some shorts here I would definitely say above at around the thirty five thousand dollar area is probably where you want to be looking for the shorts But you also want to keep a tight stop because this could shoot up and Say forget technicals at any point So so just something to watch for something to look out for and and be wary of So like we spoke about $30,000 is going to be the support here 30.8 is the one that I have marks here because you can see that it's Played as a support and resistance multiple times over. So that's a spot that I'm interested in I would love to to get a pullback to either 32 or 30 and Open some build some long positions there So if if we were to pull back to 32, I would start opening up Setting up some long positions and I would probably the way I would probably set it up I might set up long positions laddered entries down to $30,000 now that is kind of high risk if you're taking a great day trade with leverage Because it is more of a swing trade But that is that might be one of the ways that I'm playing it depending on the pullback that we get here and if we even do get a pullback because Like I said the ETF approval. It's only a matter of time So if we pull back for any reason I want to build long positions down here Now let's see let's look at some chart patterns and of course we spoke about the This pattern multiple times over the double bottom here. We spoke about it for a certain since September basically And we see the end result. We got exact We hit exactly what our target was which was up here And we told you guys the same thing about the double top once we got the double top we gave you guys up this this Target down here and look at where price went. We hit that target then we set up this double bottom here and We gave you guys this target right here and look where price went to our exact target So we've hit on both of these Chart patterns here both the double top and double bottom Now we're just kind of Skim going to sit and wait for something new to develop here, right? I think this could potentially be a bull flag here But we're gonna have to give it some time to see if we consolidate within that range a bull flag We'll probably look something like this where we consolidate downwards This will create the flag and then at that point we would have a breakout You know somewhere here So it would you know, we'll get something like that to the upside and that would probably bring us to in that scenario You know if we just kind of Play out measure this out and say that we would get the breakout at some point in December for example That would put us at about 41 to 40 42,000 dollars basically So now again, this is just a scenario that I'm just kind of making up right now It this hasn't happened as you can see there's we don't have that That consolidation down right now, we don't have that channel So we there's no bull flag right now, but that could be something that we see Over the next few months so something that we're gonna be watching over the next few weeks here since this is a weekly chart But just something to keep in mind Now Let's see what else do we have here? So Let's look at some liquidity here So I always like to look at liquidity gives me an idea more or less where everything's at let's let's run this again to refresh it So this gives us an idea where there's a lot of liquidity and liquidation levels Basically, this means that there's there's People to the upside here. This would mean if price moved up People that are in short positions would get liquidated, right? So as you can see right now the majority of liquidations on the the seven-day chart Is to the upside so that that what that tells us is that there's a lot of people shorting this level, right? And we just spoke about why that's it makes sense to short that level So that's basically what people are doing right now They're shorting this 35k level and as you can see there's a lot of liquidations up here starting at 35,250 and We we have a few liquidations down here, but there's there's really not too much, right? And this starts at around that thirty three thirty two thousand dollar mark. So right now the majority is up here This is on the seven-day scale seven days. So Usually the way that things work out with liquid with liquidation levels is that price likes to is is attracted to that liquidation levels We spoke about this many times So what that means is is, you know, there's a there's a high probability that we move up here Eat up these liquidations. We set them off liquidate all these traders are a short and then we make a move to the downside So I wouldn't be surprised to see if that's something like that happened here over the next few days Maybe even this week So it's definitely something that that's interesting there to watch out for If we zoom in a little further, let's go to the 12 hour Now 12 hour could look a lot more like of a mess and You can see on the 12 hour There's the there's not too much to the upside here There but there's also not really too much to the downside. So There's it really gives us no no clues or no ideas here on the 12 hour If we zoom out to the monthly Now the monthly is taken into account where we were a month ago, which was down here at that $27,000 area so You know, there's still it's still showing liquidation levels way down here at that 27 and $26,000 areas. So This will eventually probably reset, but it's still showing those liquidation levels down here at those levels I personally don't think that we retest those levels down there Unless we get some really bearish news. I don't see any reason for price to drop what like seven eight thousand dollars So, yeah, I'm not I'm not too worried about this one right now. I think this just kind of needs to reset a bit Here within the new month So I'm not putting too much on on this All right, so Let's let's take a look at some imbalances imbalances are another way where you can find a potential Move right price likes to fill imbalances. So that's something that we always like to look at. So let me just kind of Delete all of this here Get rid of all of these all right, so What what is an imbalance? So basically an imbalances is when we have massive moves like this without price ever retesting these levels or returning to these levels, right? So one thing that you'll notice is that whenever there's a massive move like this a massive candle price usually moves back And retraces that move before continuing up You can see right now We've had two candles that price has not retraced not even a little bit. So if we look back And you know, this is I the way I always like to look at it. I like to look back, right? So looking back we can see we had this let's say this this one right here was Wasn't a massive candle, but it was pretty big and what a price do price retraced it, right? Look at this one right here. This was a pretty massive candle here What a price do? Two weeks later it retraced the majority of it at least 50% of it, right? And now obviously we've completely retraced it, but We're looking more on the on the short term, right? Massive candle, this is a massive candle to 15% candle what a price do it it basically Consolidated here over the next two months before a complete retracement of it. So Now let's look at another one. We had another one over here Massive candle 26% what a price do after that it slowly consolidated And retraced at least 50% of that candle, you know, it this did take a little bit longer But it did it And now there's there is times that it doesn't is not going to retrace the full candle So we had this massive candle here and you can see that we only got about 25% Of the way of that move so That shows you it this rule is not a set in stone rule that always happens but It happens a lot right it happens very frequently You just keep going back in history looking for these big candles and seeing price eventually Retrace those big moves. So, you know, that's just something to keep in mind here I know that people are really excited very bullish right now But there's a there's a high probability that we have some type of pullback here Probably back to around the 30,000 mark Within the next, you know a few weeks or so So again something that we're watching Um, so now now that we've kind of broken that down, you know overall The monthly and uh weekly Let's go into the daily and and kind of figure out how we can play this chart here to make some profits this week So, um, you can see on on here. We're starting to get that bull flag, right? We have this triangle here So eventually has to break up break out or break down, right? It has to make a decision Usually when there's triangles, it's a 50 50 pattern, right? Now when there's when the triangle pattern when this pattern, um happens In bullish sentiment, then it's more likely for a continuation to the upside. So that's what a A bull flag is right? But here again, I'm still I do expect some sort of pullback. So that's why it's kind of difficult to say, okay If price breaks above, you know above 35,000, let's go long because 35,000 is is a strong in the strong resistance zone But if you look at the zone, this zone could go up as high as 38,000 dollars. So, um, you know, maybe it's not a bad idea to go To go long 35,000 because you could potentially write that up to 38,000 Now that it's a very high risk play because like I said, 35,000 is a resistance So what what I'm going to be leaning towards this month the main thing I really want to do is Look for a pullback. I am dying for a pullback so I can open up and build up a long position Starting at at least 32,000 dollars. I would love to see price pull back to 32 32 I'm happy to open long positions at 30. I'm very happy to open long positions at 35 If I had to make a play if I had to choose a if I had to open up a trade, right? Then I'm looking at Short positions really So the way that I would probably do it is at 35 If we break above it, I would wait for price to start dropping back below it and then probably, uh Once I see that rejection Then open up a short position You know, it's going to be a day trade. I'm going to be looking to take profits at 250 500 750 type of type of things So, uh, it'll be a very it'll be a scout because again, I'm I'm afraid to be in in a swing position Um with that bitcoin spot ETF needs looming even though There's a big chance that if you open up a position here, you could write it down to 32 or 30 thousand dollars Um, and that would be a home run trade, right? But again, it's just it's very high risk. So that's basically What I'm doing this week, right? I'm I'm I'm waiting to see What price does I want the main trade I want to do I want to take is a long position I want to build long positions at 32 and below Up here. I want to maybe play a small Small risk small position tight stop loss short, uh play here. Um, so that's what I'll be Likely looking for um up here at that 35 000 range so pretty much, um That's that's uh, I covered everything right that that's pretty much what I've been what I wanted to to kind of share with you guys Um, as far as what's going on right now in that crypto space Um, if now if you guys have any questions of any questions about anything that we've covered here, um, or anything going on Drop it in the comments right now. If not, we'll go ahead and wrap things up here Let me take the drink of water. I've been talking non-stop basically for an hour right now So it's it's been a crazy few weeks man, but I am definitely excited um Really excited here. All right, yannis has a comment here Uh, because everybody believed that bitcoin will reach a hundred thousand dollars plus in the next bull market Do you give any possibility for bitcoin to reach only 70 000 and make a triple top? So I mean there's always that possibility, right? That that is one of the scenarios and when when we're thinking about You know potential scenarios You have to think in a problem probabilistic Uh range of outcomes instead of a black and white, right? So Will we hit a hundred thousand dollars? There's a high probability, but it doesn't mean it's 100 percent guaranteed um But I because looking back at bitcoin, uh, bitcoin's price historically It does show us that we're going to that we're we're supposed to right that there's a high probability Shot at hitting that next level a new all-time high Just because it's what it's done historically for its entire history, right? We have pre halving bitcoin's price starts moving up Halving bitcoin's price really starts moving up and then the year after halving is when we set new all-time highs Historically, that's how it's happened So because of that that's what The probabilities point to right it's it's happened 100 percent of the time So it's a very high probability that that's what's going to happen again History is once again going to repeat itself now is it going to reach a hundred thousand That part we don't know we're just kind of making predictions and trying to make our best guess Based on historical data, right now. We don't think it's going to Move just like it did last time. For example, it went from $20,000, which was its previous all-time high To uh, $69,000. So that was basically 20 40 60 it was a 2.5 x right Are we gonna do another 2.5 x this year? Um from 69 To what would that take us? uh 69 Times 2.5 that would put us at about a hundred and seventy two thousand dollars Are we gonna do I think that we're gonna hit a hundred and seventy two thousand? I don't think so. Um, That that seems very very difficult to hit So what is more realistic than that? Um, I think you know from 69 to to a hundred thousand dollars is not even a 2x right it's from from its previous all-time high So that's why it seems very reasonable because the 2x you're talking about around 140 140 thousand dollars So 140 are we gonna hit 140 thousand dollars? I mean right now it doesn't seem realistic So when you when you take the the thought from all right historically like last time we did a 2.5 x That puts us at a hundred and seventy two thousand dollars. That doesn't seem realistic Uh, if we think about a 2x all right, what's a 2x from their last all-time high? 140 thousand dollars like That seems more doable, but still it's like bitcoin hit 140 thousand. It's still again. It doesn't feel realistic So if after thinking about those two numbers if we think how about a hundred thousand dollars That seems a lot more realistic after think after looking at 172 and 140 So I think that's what a lot of people are doing then the other aspect to it is the psychological aspect of it, right? So now we're talking about a Basically the biggest whole number that there is right 100 thousand dollars This is where And this is definitely going to be a an all-time high. I can basically I'm not gonna guarantee it, but I think that there's a very very very high probability that bitcoin's price If we do get to that range It hits like 99,000 and right before hitting 100 It drops and we dropped like 10 15 thousand dollars. I think that would be really realistic Where where we have a massive correction at 100 thousand dollars just because it's so Um, you know such a huge whole number right huge psychological Barrier for the human mind and emotion. So I think that 100 thousand dollars Could that's why I think 100 thousand dollars could be that potential All-time high just because it's such a big whole number and it's such a big psychological number that Everybody's going to be selling at a hundred thousand dollars. So That's why I kind of see it in that way um, is there Uh, an event where we can hit above 100 thousand dollars 100 percent, right? There there's definitely that scenario as well The same way there's a scenario where you know, we hit less than 100 that we don't make it to 100 thousand dollars So I mean all those scenarios are Definitely in play And the thing is that we don't know where it's actually going to end up So the the best thing that we can do instead of trying to guess where it's going to be Once we start hitting all-time highs the same way you dollar cost average in during a bear market You want to start dollar cost averaging out during the bull market? So I think that's the best You know thing that I can tell you Um, it's personally what I'm going to be doing at that point because we're not going to be able to to know What the actual top is right? So like there's no way that we would have known like in hindsight now We think about the previous all-time high and we're like, yeah $69,000 in bitcoin 69 right that makes total sense in hindsight like why didn't I think That we would hit 69 thousand and that's what the top would be like everybody would set their sell orders at 69 thousand Right, that's you think about it now. You're like wow that was that was like it was so obvious in hindsight So so now what we have to try to do is using historical data try to foreshadow or try to have foresight Of what's to come and try to make our best decisions possible based on that Because at the end of it, we have to know that we're going to be wrong There's nowhere we're going to predict exactly where that top is going to be Um, so so our best bet is to just use the same strategy that we're using during the bear market except opposite Right, we're going to dollar cost average out instead of dollar cost average in So I hope uh, they gave you some sort of answer. I know it wasn't a very specific answer But you know, it's it's It's a probability type question where you know, what's the probability of us hitting 70 versus in triple topping versus, you know 100 and it's just based on on probability You know the probability right now is that we're not going to triple top and that we're going to set a another higher high another new all-time high, but Um, it's definitely a scenario that could happen. So that's what there's there. It's there. There's not Zero percent chance that it that it happens, right? So there is a chance um Also if you have a chance, can you can you do a quick check at cardano daily time frame and give your opinion? Yeah, for sure Let's take a look at cardano here I haven't looked at it in a while to be honest So let's let's look So you can see I've already set up levels here of last last time I looked at it Um, and one of the main levels that I had set you can see I already have. Oh, sorry. You can't even see my chart There we go So this is a monthly chart right now and you can see that I have these levels set up I probably set these levels up at some point after we hit that all-time high up there Because you can see I have the Fibonacci level the the Fibonacci level set up and everything Um, and then I set this three green boxes that you notice here that I set up Plus this big yellow support here. So what it looks like here And this is just from what I set up a long time ago Is that uh 25 cents is a major support level you can see that we bounced on it here Back in december of 2022 um We had we hit a high this year of 46 cents and we we retraced all the way back But you can see that the support has held this entire time So I think 25 cents looks like a really really great area for buying If you're looking to add to your positions um If not, I think right now just within this green box period is a great Time to buy so this green box is from 25 cents all the way up to about 35 cents So is that 10 cent range where I just think it's a really good opportunity to buy um And then you know the all-time high is of course at three dollars and 16 cents Um, I think you know in the next two years. We're definitely going to hit that again if we look at what exactly that looks like That's a over over a 10x. That's a thousand 1111 11144 percent move Um from where we are right now. We're actually we're here. So still about a 10x So basically what you're saying is all right any spare money that I have Let's say let's say you have a thousand dollars If you decide to put a thousand dollars into this and I say a thousand just because it's the easiest number to uh To to calculate right and I think it's a it's a pretty general number for that a lot of people can You know at least muster up right they can muster up a thousand dollars in savings um So to say at a thousand dollars put a thousand dollars Don't look at it for the next two years I do think that that thousand dollars could turn into ten thousand dollars within the next two years by 2025 so um So yeah, so that and and that's just the conservative Uh Prediction right that we get back to previous all-time highs, but again if we look at previous years Where we set all-time highs And then compare it to the next one you can see that this all the last Last all-time higher was higher than the one before that So it wasn't that much higher, but it was 126 percent higher So if we say okay, so this time maybe we get another 126 percent Right, uh another 126 percent would put us at basically seven dollars and 25 cents So and I mean 126 percent is a lot. Let's say that we're it's lower this time and I always like to be conservative Versus anything else. I think being conservative is is probably the best way to To try to make predictions. So let's say instead of 125 we hit 100 percent that puts us at about six dollars So now we take a look at where price is at now Let me where is it? It's this one right here Try to grab that one. So our price is at now To where we could potentially maybe hit In the next bull run, that's 2100 percent guys that and it sounds crazy. I know But that's the type of returns that you could potentially get in crypto Right, so now you're saying that those that $1,000 that you're putting in right now today Could potentially turn into 21,000 dollars and that's when You know it changes from just um A little bit of you know return Into okay, this could potentially be some life changing Returns so it makes sense why there's been you've seen all those those people in the news About retiring or selling their homes For bitcoin and things like that because of these potential returns because we're only talking about a thousand dollars What what if you put $10,000 in here, right? A 2000 percent a 20x on $10,000 now you're talking about A quarter million dollars Right, so for the people that you know and and again, this is not financial advice. These are I'm just thinking out loud here um And speaking about historically what price has done and about stuff that I've seen on the news, right? I would never sell my house to to buy to put it to you know, put it all in crypto Um, but there have been people that done it. So now imagine someone really really believes and they're like, you know what? I'm just going all in and if it fails if I'm wrong Then I'll just be homeless and they end up selling their house living out of a truck or a Living out of a a motor home or something like that, right a trader Um for the next two years if maybe they say, you know what? I'm gonna sacrifice the next two years of my life I'm sure that's what you know where their mind went and uh sell their home Put 100k Into this now now a move like this. We're talking about 2.1 million dollars, right? So um If it could have been someone that was broke Sold their house for $200,000. They kept 100 to live off for the next two years um, they put 100 in it And then they got a 21 100 percent return 21x That turns into 2.1 million dollars life changing money, right? So that's why we see all these life changing stories Again, not financial advice. Do not sell your house to put it in crypto. I I don't I don't recommend that um, but Just so you get an idea of some of us some of the potential that's in it. Um for those, you know, depending what type of money They're they're putting in Justin Justin said with 1k in how much extra margin are you dropping to lower liquidation price or are you using stop loss? um So justin I I need more information in order to be able to answer that um A lot of that depends on many many factors, uh, including, you know, how much money you have in your account Uh, how much money you Your position is you know, what your position size in Is and all that um, and there's calculators on like things like buybit for example There's a calculator and if you put it in I think it could tell you it gives you an idea of what that difference is um, but What i'm usually what I always recommend a stop loss don't don't um Because and I tell you this from experience because I've lost a lot of money by not using a stop loss And I did that that same thing where I started when the liquidation price was getting near I started adding to the position or adding to the account so that liquidation price could go down And man when I tell you that I lost sleep over some trades because I did that It's not fun. I don't recommend ever doing that. Um Just use a stop loss have a plan set up that plan before you ever even get into the trade So that you do not lose any sleep over it Yeah, it might suck to lose out on a trade, especially if the trade hits your stop loss and then moves up You you it sucks when that happens, but trust me. I rather take a very small loss then Be sweating over my stop my liquidation getting hit right running out of money and blowing up my account Uh, you do not want to get into that mine state. You do not want to lose sleep over that You do not want to sweat over that so don't do it. That's the best thing I could tell you So, um, I appreciate you guys, uh, yannis. Yeah, definitely don't sell your house Um, I appreciate you guys for tuning in. Thank you for the questions. Um Hopefully we have a good week. Uh, you know, I I still I think we're gonna consolidate here for a while But uh, but who knows maybe we get that that bitcoin etf approval and um And you know, uh, bitcoin continues to go up We see that those top levels that we spoke about uh in today's video $38,000 $40,000 $42,000. So those are those are the next mean resistance levels to look out for Thank you guys so much for uh For tuning in. I hope you guys also have a wonderful day. I'll see you guys next week as always peace and love