 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week one was pretty much a delight from start to finish But finish is not officially here yet because we still have the Denver Broncos at the Seattle Seahawks the Drewlock revenge game if you want to go with that the Russell Wilson revenge game if you are not as fun We're gonna break it down from a betting perspective Let you know our favorite bets across this across this game both in the traditional markets and in the player prop markets My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by Ryan Williams Check out Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan You were at the Chicago Bears game yesterday in the soaking wet. Have you dried out yet? And how was that victory for you as a Bears fan? Yeah, I dried out. I was thinking about man Do I just DM Jim last night and tell him I'm not gonna be able to make it because my voice is so hoarse I feel like Chris Collins worth here coming on right, but uh, no definitely worth it I mean we had kind of talked about how much fun It was gonna be to bet on this Bears team and kind of all the unknowns and how the pop how the public was feeling about San Fran and we were just I was just hoping for cover I mean I did you know have I think half a unit on the Bears money line, okay, which definitely felt good There's a lot to celebrate yesterday, but I mean that that's the thing about week one right Jim And that's why we're talking about this game here on Monday night is just like there's so much unknown and people Want to cling to so much stuff from last year that it makes it fun For for this year and getting bets down a week one and it could it was we saw it all throughout Sunday's sleigh. We had the Texans with their tie They were plus 270 on the money line and that game the Giants get the win-out rights with the miss field go at The end there. It was a fun play to games. I mean my cardinal stuff did not go Well, but we can ignore that we'll talk we'll talk about that tomorrow in the recap section of the week But we're gonna be here every weekday throughout this week and every other week here on covering the spread We do Monday night football previews every Monday as well to get you set for that week's Monday night football game beginning here Today with these Seahawks and the Broncos we're gonna get to all that in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Tomorrow have a first look at week number two breaking down What my numbers say about the week two spreads money lines, etc, etc Letting you know where I see value if I'm betting it or not, etc, etc We'll also have pitching ninja on break down some strikeout props Wednesday is college Thursday Ryan is back on to talk more NFL and then Friday We JJ Zacharias and talking some player props for these Sunday games as well So hit subscribe on the covering the spread wherever you get your podcast also with college football in the NFL now here It's time to get on the action early this season help get you started new fan dual sports But customers can get a no sweat first bet up to one a thousand dollars Whether it's spreads money lines or props odds for that and more are available on the fan dual sportsbook app Just sign up place your first bet and fan will give you up to one a thousand dollars back and free bets if you don't win There's no better place to get ready for the football season Then on fan dual America's number one sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select States only first online real money wager only Refundition is non withdrawal but free bets that expire 14 days after a seat Restricted supplies see terms that sportsbook dot fan dual comm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over the fan dual comm slash RG and Arizona 100 next step protects next up to five three three four two in in Connecticut one eight eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit cc pg dot org slash chat in it In Louisiana one eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in New York One eight seven seven eight open wire text open why in Tennessee call the red line at one eight hundred eighty nine nine seventy nine In Wyoming one eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred or in West Virginia one eight hundred gambler dot net Let's take a look now at this Monday night football game and Ryan I thought With the with you being a mizu guy. I thought maybe we get a drew locker is here Maybe even an albert oak wave an arm like I thought we'd get at least one of them But didn't get that so I feel like we're just you're just down in the zoo Guys I want to get your impression overall on this game before we dig into the the betting angles for this one tonight Yeah, I should have shown you my feet because I got my mizu socks on. Oh good. Okay There's a rough matchup for us on saturday going against the former big 12 rival in kansas state saturday didn't happen As as as i'm wearing my northwestern pullover here saturday didn't didn't exist. It wasn't a real thing Absolutely. No, it did not and we'd like to we'd like to right the ship there I'll turn my hat around here as we as we get into some action as we're matching here. I love not playing Yeah, this this this game is going to be fun. Jim. I mean, I'm looking at the six and a half number for plus plus side for seattle and I just got to think that this might move to the magic number of seven as we get closer closer to game time here Just so much of the public money and bets are on the denver side of the ball You're looking at 79 of the bets over 50 percent close to 58 percent of the money Coming in on denver side and this just makes me think about last year when tampa bay Goes into fox burl the brady return and how much hype was you know geared around that and this is in seattle Like the emotions Could be running high. I don't want to say should but could be running high for russell here and And really, you know, we're looking at a coach there that had the propensity when he was at his former stop in green bay To run the football. So I mean if things are kind of looking like, you know Or maybe they get out to a lead early and they're just able to establish the run Or I just feel like this isn't the let rusk cook matchup that we might see I think they're going to save that for games when they really are, you know Maybe underdogs or need to put their foot on the gas and on the seattle side. I just don't see that happening Which makes me think it's going to be lower scoring and and seattle has a chance to have it stay close If they can get into scoring range Yeah, we did see the total come down a point this morning It was 44 and a half now 43 and a half The spread has stayed pretty steady at six and a half for like a decade It seems like this one's been up for a very long time. It's been steady at six and a half thus far You are probably getting the right read on it though. It's minus 115 on the denver side of things So you are paying a bit more to buy in the denver side I it could get to seven before kickoff and I think that's interesting in terms of The way we want to bet this game because my numbers do show value in the seahawk side I I can't quite get there yet I'm looking at it though. If hypothetically they were to give me a seven that would get me because I've got it at uh Full do do do I've got it at 4.02 points So that's about a point and a half of value right now If you get it to a full almost two points and give me that key number seven I'll at least be kind of tempted and it kind of comes back to what you were talking about where if this is a low scoring game where We see things kind of slow with denver or with seattle keeping the ball on the ground That's going to increase the variance increase variance means We're it's tougher to cover a seven point spread in that scenario So for me in the traditional markets, I feel like I am monitoring that spread I am receptive to betting the seahawks if it does move But I'm not quite I'm not there enough yet. We're actually want to Put this one, you know, put some actual money on it. I am holding off for right now Monitoring the situation to see what happens. What about you? Are you feeling good enough about any of these traditional markets to actually make a bet here? Or is it a situation where it's it's still in a wait and see mode to see if more pop value pops up later on Yeah, I'm interested in the six and a half for seattle for sure getting those points But I'll just wait it out and hope because like you said this line has really not moved at all There's nothing really I think that would necessarily Move it. I mean, so Kenneth Walker, right is is questionable. We think that he's not going to play Maybe if he's officially ruled out that has the chance to move it to seven or I don't think there's any other key news That we get um that could really, you know, move it any any more heavily than that But I still think that just getting closer to game time having more bets having people settle into Monday and reaction You know reactionary week one news coming out. I think they might tend to lean on Betting betting more on the Denver side than currently is I agree and I think that the other thing too is we You typically the public tends to favor favorites So if we're going to get money on this game before The actual money starts coming in, you know, if people are holding off on the seattle side of things I would bet that it would go towards Denver So I'd hold off keep an eye on that that if we get that minus 115 to start moving on the Denver side Like if it becomes 110 that could indicate there's some seattle money coming in So keep tabs on it. The money line has been holding pretty steady at plus 240 So, you know once you see those numbers start to tick Maybe that's when you start to dive in if you are interested in the seattle side Which might not apply to very many of you because I realize I could be on an island with this one Let's talk about ross and his first game here with Denver and We haven't gotten to see this this Broncos passing offense with like I want to say upside quarterback play because teddy bridge water was competent and like I don't want to like overstate How you know make it seem like teddy's worse than he is, but this is an upside type passing offense now with rustle Wilson there throwing deep bombs. That's what he does, you know, it's touchdown or check down that kind of thing So I want to get your read. What's your read on this this the passing props in this game? Given we haven't seen rustle wilson. We haven't seen these pass catchers with a guy like rustle wilson We haven't seen rustle wilson with them yet. What's your read on the overall passing props here? Yeah, well, I think he's at uh, uh, two two fifty six two fifty eight. Um, if I'm if I'm not mistaken 253 and a half right now. So it's we've gotten some money on the under it appears Okay, so so yeah, I mean that's that's kind of where where my lean was I mean just thinking about the emotions again riding high coming into seattle This is the defense that kind of you know knows him now I will say though. There are some the injuries uh on the seattle side Uh, I think brooks the linebacker is is going to be out or he was questionable I I believe for most of that week We need to look at that news because I do like the run game for seattle for Denver. We'll talk about them Uh, but also jamal adams. It's he sounds like he's going to be playing with the cast For most if not all of the season there on his hand. So they're dealing with some injuries on that side But I still think you know just the just the allure of playing back in seattle The fans are going to be rocking. They're probably going to be booing him. He's not going to be used to that Or at least you know used to that as being the other opponent. I know they gave me some rough go Last year when he wasn't able to get it done. But but yeah, I do like The I do like the passing in the sense that I'm that's not steering me away from his weapons on the other side I just think from his overall standpoint And especially if they get out to an early lead and and we've seen, you know Kind of this mo from the seattle seahawks and gino Is he going to be able to keep drives alive? And if he can't get past the 50 Then it's like there's no point for them to have I mean they have two great running backs that they can just feed the rock to And letting it they and you'll have to get out of here with the win Which new coaches yesterday seven seven two and one against the spread So I mean like if I'm talking about taking the seattle line That's what I'm facing against but uh, but yeah, I just think that russ Won't be asked to do too much and that's why I like the under and I guess the public does as well too Yeah, uh, 253 and a half again the under there for russ on this one I think I had to lean that direction as well in terms of russell wilson I was also intrigued by unders on the actual pass catches themselves. The problem is that kj hamler is also Questionable for this game. He did get in limited practices throughout this week, but he's coming off It's foreign acl. We saw chris godwin play despite not having not being cleared for contact before last night But obviously that didn't he left the game before it was over So that's a tough situation. Coralton Sutton right now at 63 and a half yards Jerry duty at 59 and a half now what I wanted to do here was to look at the total receptions market because I was kind of thinking that this could be a spread out offense still because they still got okuebanam They got both the running backs. They've got A lot of guys who can catch passes, but I think fandom of these markets set pretty well Sutton under four and a half is minus 118 judy under four and a half is even money So I think for me if I am attacking this game and looking at the pass catchers I'm intrigued by judy under 59 and a half that is even money right now Because I just think that we'll still think see things spread out the problem having ryan is I can just envision the russell wilson beautiful deep deep ball going to jerry judy for like a 40 yard reception And kind of you know Burying me right away So I have not taken this yet, but I I think that my my strongest inclination is towards judy under 59 and a half With the pass catchers. Are you seeing anything there? Yeah, so I think so this is going to be fun to watch for me because of the the narratives all love season All summer we were talking about is it Sutton or is it judy? Who's going to be the number one guy in this offense and like everything was kind of pointing to Sutton You know coming to russell's house and they were hanging out over the summer and he's healthy now and like both very religious That's all that matters with ross, you know, we got that going for us Exactly, and then you're looking at judy and I don't believe he hit, you know now granted This was a different quarterback situation, but you're looking at last year He's had a hard time staying healthy and then also I don't believe he hit 100 yards Um in any of his uh games that he played in last season and the thing about the deep ball That people want to talk about with judy is that courtland Sutton Is is a guy who's had great air yard numbers when he's been on the field So like he does have the chance to be that deep ball threat with russell wilson and if that's the case It's like this dude might finish as a wide receiver one in the in this offense from what we're expecting and like This wasn't a regime that drafted judy. So like they could just really, you know People are expecting that and so when you're looking at like the any time touchdown Market, I think that you know courtland Sutton At plus 140. I believe is where he's coming in at. I love I love getting that action on him I think that he's you know, got a got a significant chance to be able to do that And judy's not not far behind him So I think that people might take that because he has the longer odds at plus 160 Um, so I still think there's there's value in that. Um, but also yeah I would be looking at courtland Sutton's reception Numbers to just just in the sense if you're talking yourself into this being you know Any type of competitive game or if you're betting the over that you definitely want to look at the Denver passing props there And I'd be I'd be fine to lay that money With courtland Sutton. Yeah the touchdown prop. I think that with Sutton you think back to like I think it was a rookie year or his second year whatever it was the year where he was like single-handedly Just like carrying the Broncos offense like I think about that whenever you mention any time touchdown So plus 145 the number on Sutton right now if you want to get on that one Which I think is interesting for me as well. Let's talk here about the backfield We got givante williams melvin gordon a lot of discussion around the divvying of the work here now I was hoping we get a rushing plus receiving prop here not up yet at vandal sportsbook as of right now because If melvin gordon's gonna get work, it's probably gonna be more so in the passing game than than for givante Uh, givante williams number is 60 and a half minus 113 both ways Melvin 38 and a half rushing yards minus 120 and the over minus 106 in the under any read for you on those two guys ryan Yeah, absolutely gonna be firing up melvin gordon I think he's over 38 and a half on his rushing props if I have that line corrected hasn't moved It is minus 120. So you you absolutely love that juice I might be looking at some alternate lines for him when when they get released just because Nathaniel Hackett has already said that they are going to use the hot hand at the running back position That both of these guys, you know, it's funny like you kind of see these narratives like trickle over from the previous regimes Like we were kind of getting that from the green bay packers like Aaron jones and aj dillon are the 1a 1b in this offense like they're going to be used and that's what we saw From green bay even with them trailing like these guys were both out there and like I get it They don't have that many weapons on green bay as denver has but We were looking at the touches from last year and melvin gordon was right there with givante williams as far as touches go Both of both over 500. I believe on those numbers So You got to think that especially if denver can control the pace of this game and get both of these guys involved I think that you know, he's going to be a guy that you're going to be wanting to You know get get his rushing props play them in your dfs lineups in single game and things like that It should be a fun one to see but I think that again You're talking about a guy givante williams who's the younger back who I think they might use They brought melvin gordon in for a reason. I think that he's still going to see some work in the red zone It makes for an interesting anytime touchdown Prop that uh, but as well as getting over his rushing guards if they're not going to get it over over 40 I like that number. Yeah, it's easy to forget that melvin actually played really well last year You look at like their epa splits with and without melvin Like they were a better offense of melvin gordon on the field than they were with givante williams That's not to say that melvin gordon is a better player because there's a lot of noise In epa splits and stuff like that like they are a very noisy staff, but He did play pretty well, and I think that's worth mentioning it depends on Who you were looking at in terms of like, you know the touch distribution between these two guys But it was either like 55 45. Uh, some people said 65 35. That's a really big difference So I would like more precision between the beat reporters on this this breakdown But um, I think melvin will still be involved and that impacts both my thoughts on him and on givante Let's look on the seattle side of things here right now. You mentioned kenneth walker didn't practice at all this week So i'm guessing you won't play he's questionable right now ruchad pennies rushing prop is 69 and a half any read for you on that one or any other seattle player props here Well, definitely if kenneth walker, well, I'll just say this first of all, uh, ruchad pennie Over 69 and a half rushing yards. I believe is what it's at like we're just we just are taking that number And I I try not to say locks jim I said that tampa bay two and a half was a lock with you That's the only time that I said that and I said I wasn't gonna say it again So not gonna use the not gonna use the four letter word here. Just just lock adjacent Yeah, lock adjacent. Hey drew locks on the team. So we'll take that for what it's worth Uh, but no, it's just looking at that number looking what he did last year and just what is going on with this team I mean if kenneth walker is not healthy, um, I do like, you know I do like dj dallas and travis homer from their pass catching upside. So, you know, seattle trailing in this game I think that there's some merit to kind of look at if they release any receiving props on those two guys I would be interested but as far as the rushing standpoint goes when ruchad pennies healthy He is the guy you saw last year the last six games of the season This guy was hitting 100 yards and I think five out of the six games He had won where it was under 50 yards But other than that, I mean he was getting the ball rushing the rock getting getting it in red zone Getting the red zone attempts. He had six touchdowns in those six games So I just think any any type of way that seattle is able to stay in this game And to stay afloat it would be to give ruchad pennie the rock here Now I want to talk about some other props here in a second But I do want to give you depth Uh, we're going to be talking tomorrow Our tomorrow is our recap we'll like look back at bets in the past week Your spread bets on thursday where the bucks minus two and a half Steelers plus six and a half and the texans plus seven and a half. So, uh, Let's go. I know that you're more of a prop guy, but ryan I think i'm going to nudge you towards spreads, uh as well good for because that was a pretty good, uh Pretty good little debut for you there. Okay, let's open up the board here and talk about some top props for me The thing that stands out most is I want some noa fant unders It seems like he's going to split a lot of work with will disley Will disley got brought back and actually signed a pretty big contract a weirdly big contract With the seahawks. I'm expecting a I'm expecting this game to be kind of somewhat close based on what my numbers say About this game, uh, that leads to more rush attempts for seattle, which could be good for your penny bet as well And if they're going to be run heavy They're going to push the ball to dk mech half tyler locket potentially will disley That's not going to leave a lot for noa fant now My preferred route for this is under 24 and a half receiving yards. That's minus 113 You could also look towards the reception market, uh, fant right there under two and a half minus 113 I could see like dump off type situations. So my preferred one is going with uh, fant under 24 and a half receiving yards At minus 113 is my that's my favorite property entire game to be fully honest I think that's the the way I would go first but among the markets. We have not discussed yet right any other value for you Yeah, I like, uh This sucks because I'm a mazu guy, but I always bought his name albert oak one oak when benam oak way benam I I like when during the draft process, uh, because like I Don't don't judge me. I like drew lock more than I should have it was a bad mistake We've all moved on I've been wrong a lot and that was one of the times I but I had to like figure out oak way benam's name because of that So that's like a name that I can actually I feel very confident albert oak way benam. What are my favorites to say? Albert albert. Oh, yes Three and three and a half You're getting plus money on that and we we know that rustle in the past is like to target these these tight ends Uh, the rookie that they drafted greg dulcits. He's on the ir I believe not expected to play it So albert oak could be seeing a lot of this a lot of Work here in this offense and you know, especially if they're able to get pressure Quarterback looking for tight end. I like getting that if it's going to be at plus money at this number and then uh, the other the other ones if we just talk about the quarterbacks again Geno smith anytime touchdown at plus 750 Has some I have some merit to that. I mean he did he didn't one start last year In the preseason we saw him Rushing for whatever for whatever that's worth I mean yet I just think that G knows the type of guy that will go out there and just want to make plays like he is a gamer Which is why I kind of do like the seattle side more so than if it was drew lock starting because if we're taking a Quarterback who has that ability to rush with his legs keep drives alive I do I do think there's some merit to that uh dk mech cap I'm just all over him. So first touchdown. You're getting 12 to 1 on that Why not let's take a chance and then go back to russia wilson at the quarterbacks to throw an interception plus 158 going back into seattle. We saw I think it was 10 quarterbacks yesterday through an interception that includes erin rogers That includes tom brady, uh, both on the road. I mind you so Quarterbacks when we're getting that plus number I mean this is a this is just the you know trend that i'm kind of seeing to start the year that has some merit to it Plus money it's plus 158. I believe right now in the fandall sports books So that's one that would be fun to get and you could definitely see a way that you know Russ is able to make a mistake, but dimver can still win this game And interceptions are things that occur on deep passes for the most part, you know when it's a not james quarterback and like Russ throws deep. So I think that's a totally viable bet. So, uh, russia throw a pick there very interesting dk mech cap first touchdown 12 to 1 I typically do tend to favor underdogs when I think they'll be competitive in the first touchdown market just because people don't account for The idea that you get the ball first stuff like that So I overall philosophically in line with that one as well any final thoughts for you ryan On this pretty fun money football opener for week number one Yeah, I would just I would just say you know just you go go with your go with your instincts here And don't don't go too crazy, especially if you're like me and you know You had you had a good sunday to start the day and then dallas comes out that gets hurt And they you know only put up three points against stamp of a uh, so you don't want to go too crazy Go ahead and just you know make some safe bets to close out the week have some fun with it And uh load up for load up for week two because week two is going to be uh, just as fun I think as week one was I'm excited to talk some week two tomorrow on the podcast and recap how good ryan's Bats were in week number one that'll all be tomorrow all pitching ninja on as well to talk some k props That's all we have here for today and for week number one here on the show though Once again follow ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore W ryan it was a pleasure to meet you and your wife this weekend here in chicago I hope you dried out since last night. I'll talk to you once again on thursday to pray the preview week two Sounds good jim. Thanks a lot. We'll see you guys next time. Absolutely. That is ryan williams ryan alexander underscore w on twitter i am at jim sonnis on twitter You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We are back once again tomorrow and all throughout this week. Thank you all for listening. Good luck Enjoy monday night football. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. You're uncovering the spread