 Welcome back folks a doubt Dow investors right now down 320 at the Nasdaq off 136 SAPs are off 36 Let's go over to our mammoth to Steve Rose as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks Steve has an outstanding show here every trading day one to two Eastern standard time also great newsletter mastering probability Now it's very easy to get Steve's newsletter kick the year off right folks started off right get the newsletter Come over to our website at TF and then you're gonna go right on the newsletters They're just gonna see mastering probability on the right-hand side You can get the newsletter for one month for $149 you get it for six months for 695 Which is a savings of $199 or 22% and you can get it for a year for 1195 Which is a savings of $593 or 33% now They all come folks with a 30-day money back guarantee you get them you enjoy it great something works If it doesn't work for you guess what just tell us you're gonna get your money back Check it out right in the front page of TF and and Steve Rhodes. What's going on football playoffs? I know man. I know and how about Pittsburgh, huh? I mean, yeah, yeah, you know, I was happy for Ben big time I mean that I'd I want to see Tampa win, but If I didn't have a team, I'd almost that'd be quite an ending to a you know career if you yeah, you know Basically, yeah, he's a great. He's a great player. Yeah, you know He's he is the type of guy that just never gives up, you know, which is and many athletes have that same thing Yeah, but in the case of you know in his case, he's uh, you know, I love watching him play I love seriously that's for sure. It seems like these guys just like memory. I mean three or four years ago We're talking about hockey players. Just keep getting better. These football players keep getting better, man It's like it's amazing, man. The catch is there that these receivers exactly exactly That's kind of what I'm talking about too. I know and yeah, it's like, how do you do that? Yeah, I think it's called a lot of Sticky on their on their gloves, but still even that, you know, even if the gloves are a little sticky, right? Still it's it's extraordinary, you know in in real time and in real time fast action It is amazing to see some of these places tonight's game though. That's the big game right now We've got the Georgia Alabama game. Oh, yeah, right. Oh, that's gonna be good. Okay. Good. Yeah, so that'll be a big game That's something that'll look forward to a big time. Yeah, I like it. Yeah, I play in a football pool every college football season Okay, this this is the first year that I have been I'm tied in first place with the two other guys Oh, if I get go Tiger Steve, I've won the number I've won the largest number of games So if I win tonight's game, I win I win the tiebreaker in the whole bit But the question is which of these two teams is going to win It's gonna be a close game, you know, and so who do you have? I'll be chairing. I have right now. I've got Alabama. I'll chair for Alabama. Perfect. Yeah into my football pool I chose Alabama and Georgia to make it to the finals. Okay, so You know the and during this football playoff season and with Omicron and all the COVID, you know, so many games were canceled Yeah, so many gates you had to go back and take a look at who was playing who was out You know who was I think so far I think the staffs are pretty healthy or the players are pretty healthy So so that you know, you're going up against that you're going up against, you know, just great teams I mean, these are both kind of like NFL quality teams. So sure should be a great game. I've got Alabama. I don't think I'll change it But I won't be surprised to see either team win. No, that's it. Yeah, that's the problem So in any event if we just get to the market, you real quickly One of the patterns that I've shared with you and and all of our listeners out there that I used to help identify Tops and bottoms is the TD nine count and so this morning at about 11 o'clock We had TD nine count bottoms that formed inside the es the dow equity future contract the ym and the rty The nq which stage the nice as you've mentioned is stage a nice rally that formed a by the d-point So all four of these equity future contracts had formed valid bottom patterns So that what was cool was coming and doing the one o'clock show Markets were still down and kind of pulling back was to be able to share with folks and step step by step Walk through what the markets were communicating to us. So the TD nine counts really important pattern I teach that to subscribers we use it during the radio shows and you may recall a few weeks ago Before we were coming at the end of the year I had mentioned that this is starting to look real serious that we could see a pullback of Perhaps two to three years and the reason is is because when I took a look at the yearly charts for the indices We had the dow form a TD nine count top the s&p The russell 2000 the semiconductor index the nasdaq composite and the new york stock exchange So four of these six indices that are on our charts out here show yearly TD nine topping signals and we may just get a a pullback in you know into october That's one possibility the other possibilities this turns into Something that more ominous and maybe a two to three year pullback out here So the last time if you take a look at that, I think it's the s&p 500 where I've got the blue diagonal arrow You'll see the last time we had a TD nine count. We saw that three year pullback So that's part of where this comes from. Yeah, if I take a look at tom the daily index charts out here Each of them Have topping patterns. So the dow's got a TD nine count pattern The s&p has a butterfly cell a sell the d-point pattern The NDX 100 has a roadsman to mindicator top The russell's got a sell the d-point pattern the semiconductor index as a roadsman to mindicator signal So we've got daily charts are suggesting. Okay, we've got a top in place weekly charts last week We've got confirmations inside the dow for a weekly top inside the s&p the nasdaq the russell 2000 So the whole the s the semiconductors kind of the whole kitten caboodle So and and one of the things that uh now what we should at least at a minimum anticipate here tom is the We're in the unfavorable seasonal cycle, which typically Begins right right in the middle of last week. So january 6th I don't remember if that was wednesday or thursday of last week out there I mean, but it's one of the days last week and so we should see the markets Pull back at least through the end of the month Which is typically right around the end of january from a seasonal standpoint If we do get some type of bottom towards the end of the month and that bottom eventually gets taken out That's what's going to be another signal for you and I that the markets are likely to head lower at least into the october time frame Now where I come with the october time frame There's really two time periods during the year on an annual basis when the markets make their significant bottom The first one is the end of january the second one is typically sometime around the middle of october So that's why I say if we if we fail if we even if we form a bottom and then it fails To me, that's a signal that we go down into that next bottoming time frame Which could be october or it could be more than that. So those are some of the things that i'm looking at And you had mentioned with you with your last guess, you know volatility is rising and you and I talked about this last week This is a weekly chart of the volatility index and this is at the bottom portion of the screen And going back into the 2007 top. We had a rising bottoms. That's that yellow diagonal area Well, guess what we've got a rising bottoms pattern that's been in place here since 2018 And when you put that together with those yearly td9 count tops, uh, that's what really has me concerned But the real proof in the pudding will be if we see closes below the bottom of the weekly profiles And the upper right hand corner is the es mini. Yeah in those green lines They represent the support levels. These are the bottoms of the weekly profiles the taz market profiles Now there's a new one tom that's attempting to form So I just wanted to update you and our listeners out there because the new level to be watching assuming this takes hold I won't really know till till friday, but right now we have to go with the data. We've got it's 45 49 Okay, if we see the yes mini close below 44 45 49 tom That's going to be a signal for you and I that we've got a change in trend in the market And you know, you got to take this stuff step by step We've got the daily top We've got the yearly topping signal sets caution the daily topping signals that are in there weekly topping signals that are in Rising spot volatile dicks and now we've just got these levels here the bottom of these weekly profiles That'll give us the final answer to this puzzle and folks take it seriously As steve just said because the bottom line is that you can study it right now. It's a lot easier when you study it When it comes, yeah, right? I mean, thanks man. Great education, man But there we know we've been doing this long enough. It's a lot easier Aware of where where are the signs man? Where are the signs? That's right. That's right. Have a great one steve. Have a safe one. Go Alabama