 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday, August 17th, 2022. I'm chief meteorologist John and it's worth for long long public media and sorry I need to have the camera off today. Thursday, August 18th will be our third quarter moon So if you're getting out early in the morning, you'll see it beautiful in the southeast sky The Sun right now is pretty active with a couple sunspots putting on a show Just about straight at us Looking at drought things are getting even better on the state You go look out especially along the front range and down here around Pueblo and the mountains We are drought free for some strips of Area here on Longmont. We're just in the moderate drought area Naturally things in the entire west have gotten better with this Continual plume of moisture things in Texas are worse, but rain is coming to them, too So here we go to this week. You see a lot lighter colors And that's why we've had more rain and more rain Again many places over two inches in the mountains and in the south and even some moisture making it out of the western part of the state looking at the Progression of severe weather climatology going into the second week of August and the third week of August Still have a chance still possible. It's decreasing though in Probable of severity Looking at Wednesday. We had no chance of convection within the storms north of Denver For Thursday high and dry again For Friday a chance of storms returns, but the marginal risk of severe weather is way out here on the plains For Saturday a chance of storms that nothing severe looking nationally. We've got Me do that real quick Technical problems, but I can't go back and re-record. We got to just pop through here So for Wednesday, we have dry conditions in the northern part of the state There's our dry conditions again over much of the stakes of the four corners Arizona continues to get lots of precipitation and That continues on Friday with those front draped here. We just don't have the moisture coming over Very easily. This is cooler more stable air and for Saturday same thing We still got this old front draped here slightly cooler air We do have going the ridge in the west. We're going to take a look at that moment fires up here Be sending smoke down. So you're gonna see some air quality alerts over the next few days and you'll See a haze there might even be times you can't see the mountains because of the smoke We've been largely smoke-free this year. So that's very nice All right, you're gonna get the ensemble forecast. We have temperatures below At least in the lower part of the normal range Normal has gone from a 785 and I had to put the line above the graph 85 to 55 for low. So you can see the normal nighttime temperature is dropping pretty significantly bone dry for a couple days here at the beginning of the forecast period and then Sort of the end of the weekend weekend We have a chance of showers coming back dries out a little bit more precipitation later on So we have this ridge in the west and that's bringing the smoke down and the cooler air that's stabilizing us Cool air is going to go down and settle into Texas and the southern plains and the south It's gonna be pretty interesting because they've had a very hot summer so far So a couple notable Tent poles in the forecast before we look at the animation is Thursday evening with our high almost over Colorado We don't have the north flow though on the side of the high a big ridge out west big trough in the east And the dry air is very obvious the browns here or below normal Precipitable water and the moisture continues in the southwest and the western states Looking at Monday. The highs just moved a little bit to sit over the top of this That's that next dry period and all the trough is kind of passing to our east and digging down And looking at the moisture. Yeah, it's still pretty dry in the north east part of the state So let's take a look at all this in motion Just keep an eye on this Ridge you have the ridge center up here in Montana for a little bit kind of a secondary ridge down here and big overall ridge itself just keeps Rolling around right over the top of our heads. So that makes it hard to get significant amounts of Convection especially off of the mountains. So, yeah, the ridge is still here. It's in Utah now four corners area Grand Canyon area Las Vegas Going out to next Friday Looking at temperatures. We are right on the edge of pretty warm stuff out here For night time and morning temperatures cool in the afternoon because of the moisture But look at this blob of cold sitting to our southeast and just kind of settles in over Oklahoma and then down into Texas here about Tuesday Wednesday I see the Mountain storms in the afternoon. It's this unusual cold. That's with that Northly flow around the ridge to the west And because of that we just keep getting dry air pushed in to the northeast part of the state So we have moisture not far away. Sometimes it tries to surge over. There's Sunday So we get a little more storm activity on Sunday and then the dry air is back We've got moisture even north of us in Wyoming and Montana But the dry air is not far away kind of flowing into the eastern part of the state on the plains by the end of next week So storm-wise not much to see I'm probably gonna cut this a little short But the mountains at least get a precipitation. That's good. I have heard that Water levels at Lake Mead are rising some I'm gonna have to look Deeper to see how much maybe I can bring that to you next week. But yeah, nothing here. It's just dry for the next Wednesday So over the next five days northeast is missing out on much in the way of precipitation because of all that north flow and dry air 10 days hints that things change and the plume moisture might be coming back later next week or next weekend into the state So we start pretty cool 80s on Wednesday Just get to the 90s then we hover back down to the 80s upper 70s on Saturday and then upper 80s through the beginning of next week with a small chance of Precipitation may be picking up next Tuesday. So kind of quiet kind of normal and kind of dry Frequent weather updates can be found at Longmont leader and bring filled leader a dot-com This has been chief mayor August John is worth keep looking up