 So, I'd like to acknowledge some co-authors down there and really these are the people that have actually been doing a lot of the work directly with farmer groups on this important issue of climate change as Mark has outlined. Just a quick overview. I'm going to really go through the first bit very quickly because people have covered it. Let's talk about some of the case studies on climate change, impacts we looked at on New South Wales, some of the adaptation options. And I think some of the opportunities and challenges associated with climate change really around uncertainty. So we're all aware of this, you know, basically we've got rising temperatures in Australia both in terms of ocean temperatures and land temperatures. That's been a familiar story. When we look at that in terms of probability distributions and that one on the left there is just looking at what's happening with maximum monthly temperatures. You can see there that as we've actually moved over from one period, this early period to a later period to later periods, we're not moving across to the right and so we're naturally going in up with more extreme events. So that's what the observations are telling us. We're actually getting warmer and that's actually affecting the extremes. When you look at minimum temperatures, again you've got a similar sort of story. So minimum temperatures are rising, maximum temperatures are rising. And when we sort of start to look at client projections, to some extent we're just introducing another curve that's moving out to the right. Okay, so there's nothing sort of new, it's actually just a continuation of that trend. Again, if we have a quick look at rainfall, this is from the Bureau and from Siro. You know, we've actually had reductions in rainfall, particularly in the growing season rainfall in New South Wales and large parts of South East Australia, particularly in WA. Now this is a story that really, if that's the indication of climate change, well, it won't really with us. Mark showed this graph and I think it's great that actually other groups other than Siro and Bob are actually analysing this data and saying, hey, there's actually a bit of a problem here. Some of this work is actually well reflected in earlier work that was done by Siaki, the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative, which really did show some really significant changes in rainfall, particularly declines in autumn, winter and spring. So when you look at those sort of charts, you start to think, well, okay, there's a bit of a story there and how do we actually adapt to it? Does it mean in a livestock sense we're actually after, we're going to need to actually have some tropical species developing into the central and southern New South Wales and is that feasible? So it starts to trigger some questions when you start looking at these trends. So the projections, Australian temperatures are continuing to warm, it's a straight from the Bureau and from Siro, a further increase in some of the extreme events like we showed in the observations. Average rainfall in some of Australia is projected to decrease with some increasing drought frequency. I guess we're less certain about the rainfall story. It's very clear about the temperature story. So a couple of things I really wanted to cover today was really just looking at some of the things we've actually found in our work that we've done in climate change. A couple of sites we're going to look at is just in tomorrow in Cundable and in central and southern New South Wales. Looking at three different climate models and we're only looking at the 2030 as a decision period that farmers are probably going to be more concerned with than a really longer term change. And the other focus for the day is really around mixed farming systems because mixed farming systems are a really dominant form of agricultural land use in New South Wales and lots of areas in Australia and there are a lot of complex links between copy and livestock that can be glossed over. So in terms of how we go about this sort of work, so it's basically a case study approach that we use. We've firstly the first important part of that is to actually consider what's happening with the current climate and the way we go about that is actually going out and actually talking with other farmer groups or farm advisers to actually develop a bit of baseline about what this farming system looks like. We'll actually try to represent that farming system within our model and in this case the model we're talking about is actually one that Siro has developed called Osfarm which actually picks up Apsum which most people will be aware of in terms of crop production and also grass grown in terms of livestock production. So we're really using that and trying to actually validate that farming system in that particular area and looking at whether do the yields make sense, does the production make sense, is this the right number of stock? Those are the things. This is somewhat, while I've got the Osfarm model described there as a car, as a computer, you could easily describe it as a car. Essentially Siro in their factory develops a car. We go and hire the car from Siro and we take it for a tour and we actually see how good the car is. We test it out, sometimes we find the car needs a bit more work, needs a bit more engineering. Sometimes there's some operator error, we've got a fatigue driver at the wheel that hasn't got his, got their hands on the right controls. And often the case though, there is some good collaboration and actual development of something better and so it's really been, it's been an important part of our work is to be working with Siro closely on development of Osfarm and applying that to different farming systems, particularly mixed farming systems where it's got a capacity to actually represent some of these interactions between livestock and cropping. So that's what we do all for the current and that's really around how we can actually reflect what's happening there. In terms of climate change, what we're introducing is another climate scenario. So after we've tested the car, ran it around the racetrack of climate variability, we're then actually then going to apply it to a different racetrack of climate change. A different racetrack is sometimes it's got a few bumps in it, maybe a few inclines in it but we're actually trying to test it out to how some of our farming systems perform, both under existing climate variability than under climate change. So that's the basic elements of the Osfarm model, sort of farm management components. We've got some daily climate data going into the model, temperature rain form of operation, some soil characteristics. That's actually handled all in Osfarm and the key things we're looking at in terms of livestock performance, you know, what's happening with growth rates for lambs, for example, what's happening with white condition scores, crop performance, obviously, you know, crop yield and quality of protein levels, etc. And we're also interested about what's happening to the resource base, you know, what's happening in terms of ground cover, you know, greenhouse gas emissions. And I guess the key thing as well is looking at what's happening on a farm profit side. So a couple of sites are looking at this condo in Tamora. So the condovalon wine is a sort of 4,000 hectare farm, wheat barley rotation with pasture, it's marina used, the pasture is sort of loosened and some medicine sub clover, and sort of 404 mils of annual rainfall. When we go to Tamora, it's east of condovalon, a smaller farm size, we've got canola in a rotation and we've also got slightly higher annual rainfall. In terms of the projections we're looking at, I'm just going to cover there's three GCMs and why we use different GCMs is because the different GCMs give you different outputs and we're trying to actually test how robust the system is. So it's important to look at more than one climate model. So these, the climate models we're using here are based on the ICP, the 4.5, emission scenario, and we can see from here that we've actually got both a change in temperature. So we're looking at, these models are giving a warmer annual mean temperature and also giving a different gap between rainfall and evapotranspiration. So in terms of, when we look at some of the impacts, when we run some of those climate change models with our farm system, we then actually can have a look at what the impacts are. So over here on the left, we've got condovalon, the base case is there and we've got, this is for the livestock component, this is for the cropping component and this is for the farm component. So condo is a sort of dry site, it's impacted by climate change, livestock, one of those scenarios, a Hadley model, you particularly get quite a large change in returns. Crop, you get a fairly consistent change in returns. Nose actually also get increased variability and then for a whole farm when you're putting those two together that's what the situation looks like. You know, tomorrow it's actually much, it's a far less clearer set of results. You've got another big impact there from the Hadley model. So livestock returns are particularly affected and cropping, you know, some actually, in some cases actually better off under this, under climate change and then the farm level. Then you've got to look at, once you have looked at those results, you're really looking at what's driving them. The same, just in picking up an example for the condoblin area, you know, one of the key things that's actually happening is we need to actually increase supplementation of stock. So there's more feed being fed to stock, more grain supplementation. And so you can see from that under the base cases there, we've actually had to feed the stock more often under those climate change scenarios. Down the bottom here, which we'll see, ground cover levels have actually declined under each of those scenarios. Tomorrow, again it's a similar story in terms of livestock at least. Level supplementation has had to increase under those climate change scenarios. And again, with ground cover, there's been some reduction in ground cover levels. Okay, so that's just really looking at the impacts without any adaptation and then we can go back and actually run our models again with some adaptation options. And as Mark had indicated, there's a whole range of different adaptation options that farmers can adopt, particularly in mixed farming systems. You know, they can change the ratio of crops and livestock. They can look at the length of the fallow period. They can look at some of the in-crop options in respect to fertiliser rates, varieties, sowing times, you know, sowing triggers. There's a whole range of different options. Today I'm just going to really quickly cover just a few of those. So one of the adaptation options we've looked at was rather than sowing a crop in every single year, actually, when you get to the end of the cropping window and there's insufficient soil moisture to like to have a reasonable crop, we actually then say, well, let's not sow. That's one of the options. Another option was basically selecting rams that got high genetic potential to result in a higher turn-off rate of lambs, a higher growth rate for lambs. Another one was to what would happen if we actually lower the minimum ground cover threshold. So basically running the system a bit harder, not supplementary footing as much and running it down. Just having a look at one of those options. At Condo, for example, when you do the tactical sowing, probably not surprisingly, the actual average yield increases by doing that so you're not sowing as often. In a few of those marginal years you're not putting a crop in. Again, with tomorrow it's a similar sort of thing down here where we're actually getting an improvement in average yield by not sowing. So the key thing is, and what's that mean though in terms of returns? So here again, it's just looking at the condovalent sort of results. You can see that under the base, this is our base case scenario here. With this CCSM climate scenario, we end up with worse off. With the sowing option, not actually sowing every single year, actually slightly improved returns. Again the genetics option, and these are all just looking at these ones independently so they would stack up to be a bit higher than this. The genetics option, again, you get an improvement. In the Hadley scenario, which is all the ones in blue, we do get an improvement. From the base case, going up to implementing the sowing option, and again a slight improvement over the base case when you look at the genetic option. When you look though under the in-plank scenarios, the adaptation option is not really giving you much at all. So that's one thing that had been finding is some of the adaptation options work differently in different environments. So it's very hard to make generalisations that this adaptation option is going to work in this environment. You've really got to do the analysis. So just some quick results in terms of the adaptation. So in terms of sowing, yes, overall it's positive for both the sites we looked at, for Tamara and Condoblin, and returns marginally improved. But the higher yield actually does trade off with less sowing area if you don't sow as often. The genetics was a positive adaptation option driven by faster land finishing times, and then it returned, the average returns improved. The ground cover option, no notable impact on returns at all from the ground cover or supplementary feed. It didn't really provide any bonus, and if anything could actually just run down the resource base and might raise some questions about the sustainability of the system. Okay, so just quickly, putting off a few minutes, but there's this interesting debate I guess about with adaptation, and on one side you've got, you think, okay, you could be quite optimistic about this. The ag sector's actually performed incredibly well. They haven't extended a period of time, which sort of suggests that really farmers are a fantastic managed variability and adapt quickly. And so that gives you a bit of confidence about the future. And many studies suggest, and Mark raised some of these, some of these incremental adaptation options do work. Farmers can implement it and they do make a difference. So that's on the, I guess, on the positive side. But then on your look on the challenges side, you know, so there's uncertainty, and you can have some uncertainty in the observations, and so try and actually really pick out, particularly with rainfall, is this a trend? Is this a real trend we're observing, or is this just natural noise of climate variability that creates some uncertainty? There's obviously uncertainty in the modelling. And when you look at the climate change modelling, you've got this cascading uncertainty. You're not quite sure about what the GHG emissions path, you're actually going to end up on. There's uncertainty obviously in climate models, what the regional scenarios look like, how the impact's been addressed, how they then scale down to local impacts, and then what some of the adaptation options are. So there's a lot of uncertainties, whether you're trying to actually base things off modelling or whether you're looking at some of the observations. One useful, and this is really from the economics literature, but it does line actually up quite nicely with a few things that Mark said. Going over to the left-hand side under current, there are opportunities in here that we can do now. We can try to pursue some of these low-regret options, some of these incremental adaptation options, and that'll get us part of the way. I think there's a real opportunity to actually mainstream some of the work that we're doing looking at some of these different farming systems, and how can you tweak the system to improve things? I think there are some good opportunities there, and I think there's probably even more opportunities in, particularly in state departments and other groups as well, is to actually look at some of the management practices and technologies that we're developing, and actually seeing how they perform, A, under climate variability, and B, under some climate change. Are these good options? And that requires a bit of modelling to be able to do that. And an important part, and I was pleased to hear Joel say this, I guess just in terms of the resolution in some of the client forecasts and probably also better in terms of monitoring, monitoring some of our rainfall, getting much better resolution about some of that, and being able to provide predictions that are final resolution than before. So it's a lot of things we can actually do now, and so in that screen, that's sort of the act now. As we sort of get further along, we've got to sort of, you know, do this adaptive management and respond as those risks evolve, but it really reinforces the need to actually have some of that monitoring and stuff actually in place, and so we need to invest in some of that so we can actually adapt over time. So as a quick summary, so the impact assessment, mixed farming systems, at least from what we've done in New South Wales, and I presented to, we've actually got 19 of these farming systems that we've developed, very much in collaboration with Siro and the different farming groups. They are sensitive to some of the changing climates. I think one of the great things that actually happened recently with, I guess, better data sets, increasing computer power, we can actually represent these systems far better than we ever could before, and it's much better to run experiments and actually test out these systems in a computer environment than actually obviously on the farm, but we see that as, you know, really quite important. I guess some of the results we found to date, look not only at a couple of ones I've mentioned today, but other case studies is it seems like those drier, more western sites are impacted by climate change more than some of the cooler, wetter sites. And there's probably less things you can do in some of the adaptation options further west and dry compared to back over further east, in the higher rainfall. So in terms of the adaptation options, when we look at our first run of that, let's look at the biophysical impacts, and that really sets the context of considering what changes we need in the system. The incremental adaptation options work. They help reduce the impacts, but to varying extents. There's no hard and fast rule that this adaptation option is going to work in all these different environments. I think the good thing about mixed farming systems is there's lots of levers to pull. There's lots of options you can do to actually modify the system. And with some of our modelling, we can actually look at tweaking some of those. And exploring some of the consequences of, you know, of tweaking those things, there's actually really can be quite effective in doing that in a modelling environment. So some of the future work, the last slide, is really, obviously we'd like to see improved climate model outputs. One thing that we haven't... Well, that's been not a lot of work done. I was really looking at what's the impacts of climate change on things like spread of pests, bullies and disease. That's a little bit of an unknown. And a lot of our models don't actually represent some of those challenges. Obviously there's a potential look at a whole range of different adaptation options and to do more integrated assessment of those options. I think it's a big question about how we, you know, try to better represent some of the economic effects of the options as well. Even considering things about, you know, equity levels because low equity levels suggest you're actually more exposed to change. And so that might change really what you want to do. So we need to reflect on that. And I think there is a real opportunity to mainstream some of the analysis that we actually do and apply that to sort of pose new practices. And whether we can evaluate those under recent climate variability and we can do it for sort of, you know, as Mark was suggesting about looking at some 10-year moving averages as an adaptive management. We can look at, you know, how some of those new technologies or practices are working on, how they can actually, how do they perform under those, under climate variability and also under sort of climate change. So that was, thanks very much.