 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Monday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN. A little bit stuffed up this morning, feeling good though. So we'll get through it, but I am a little stuffed up, you can hear me. Maybe I got a little something from the kids in the house, whatever it is, I'm feeling good. Just a little stuffed up. Maybe it's a little allergies. We got some cool weather in the air here in Florida, especially by our standards. But boy, these markets, what's going on over there in Israel over the weekend. Sure, we're all aware, but at this point can't overstate the seriousness and the headlines just keep coming up this morning. I was watching an interview this morning on Bloomberg, they were talking about the den as well. Boy, former ambassador to the US from Israel, member of their security council, and boy some strong words, talking about crushing the will of their enemies for generations to come. If you think about what that really means, things escalating dramatically. You have nine Americans killed over there. One of the headlines I was reading this morning, talking about a spokesman saying the US is working with Israel to locate others. The death toll, I think somewhere near 1100 at this point. Trying to just pick up some headlines as even they come out this morning. But boy, it is a dire situation. And we know one of the things that the gentleman that they were interviewing on Bloomberg this morning, who I believe I'm saying it correctly is, was one of Israel's former ambassadors to the US. Now a member of their security council, an aide to Netanyahu, a close ally to Netanyahu. Nonetheless, the verminage is pretty strong and you should probably take it for what it's worth. And I don't know how that abates anytime soon. And yeah, you go from there, man. Surprise markets actually knocked down a little bit more with the potential for how this ties into Iran and things could escalate from there. But nonetheless, you get the markets down about 25 points right now. You were down at about 4,300 and the S&Ps, we clawed that back a bit. Oil, all the focus potentially rightfully so. We get a lift in oil from 83 to about 86 this morning for some context here. Still well off the highs in 95 bucks, right? If we're talking about a Fibonacci retracement in that oil contract, you hit the 3A2 pretty much on the head last night. There, excuse me, 86, 68. If you're talking about the 618, you're talking about about $90 in the price accrued. We'll see where we go from there. The day is young, as our man Basil Chapman says. Gold contract catches a bid right now up about $15 to 1860. We jump over to notes and bonds. We catch a lift as well. You got the 10-year, up 23 ticks, the 30-year, up 24 ticks right now. We jump over, you're talking about a 10-year yield currently sitting. Excuse me. Come on, where are we? There we go. 4.8%, 4.79, almost 4.795, to be exact. So we'll call it 4.8% the yield on that 10-year. We're up to 107.16. We almost got a 105 handle last Wednesday. So you're talking about a full point and a half above where we're at right now, right then. But again, let's add some context. You can barely see the uptick when you consider the move that this thing's been in. And that's only going back five months. 117 was almost, oh no, exactly. That's easy to remember, okay. May the high was 117. We're sitting at 107 and change. Right now in the 10-year, the 30-year right now. 111.05, same conversation back in May. Look at that, nice round numbers, huh? 117 is the high on the 10-year and 133 is the high on the 30-year. We're at 111, 22 points we lost. From 133, 22 points you lost from May to October. Talk about being exposed to duration as you've had rates rip in the opposite direction than many had expected. All right, we jump over to the dollar index. We talk a little bit of currencies as we get some pretty substantial geopolitical news over the weekend, just from a humanity perspective, man. You're talking about nine Americans. You're talking about, I think, something like a thousand Israelis and the gentleman, same thing on Bloomberg this morning. He was talking about, if you make the comparison, Israel only has 9.4 million people, about 9.5, maybe it's up to 10 million people, okay? I have a number of 9.36 million people as of 2021, coming into almost 2024. So let's call it 10 million people. And you got a thousand deaths, right? The US, let's get it exactly. About 335 million, 340, something like that. The number I got with them is 332 for the 2021 year. So you're talking about 33, 34, maybe 40 times the size of the country. It would be akin on a population basis when you lose a thousand people and you only have 10 million people, it's a much smaller population. And so we lost a lot of people on 9.11. We have a lot more people. I mean, it's just a huge event going on over there, man. You can't overstate it. I know we all know it. And this is not gonna get into a discussion of war tactics or what's appropriate because that's not what this program is. Oh boy, that's a very opinionated conversation that everybody has their opinions on. And everybody gets very heated on this one. But I think we all feel like if that was America and that was happening, trying to consider how we would react if we had a ally on our border doing stuff like that with a thousand people ending up dead. You know, the conversations, they're 9.11. And boy, that persisted for a while. So I was listening to Bloomberg earlier this morning and I said, day three of a war that's continuing or something like that. I said, day three, this is gonna go on forever, man. This is not gonna stop anytime soon. So day three, and you can keep counting those days because this is not stopping anytime soon, man. It's a sad deal for the families over there. No matter what, and it is still persisting and the visuals are shocking to put it lightly, man. Waking up. I mean, we're waking up drinking coffee on Saturday morning, right? Watching the news in all hell's breaking loose in other parts of the world. So be thankful for what you have, folks, every single day. My dad says it, right? Tomorrow's not here. Yesterday's gone, tomorrow's not here. What are you doing right now? It's a perfect example. I mean, there's so many videos out there. Israel, I saw one of like a dance rave, dance concert, just living good life, man. And all of a sudden, just like that, the world changes can happen to any of us. So wish for the best over there, as always. But it's a dire situation. And the verbiage coming out of the gentleman this morning on Bloomberg, and probably rightfully so, you know? That's not how you gotta live, man. Where just all of a sudden there's a surprise attack and a thousand people are dead and people are kidnapped and the number's probably gonna go up from there. So I'm surprised the market's only down 23 points, man. Because this thing ties into Iran, it ties into Saudi Arabia, the normalization that's going on there. So it is more than just a Hamas-Israel attack. And that's really the potential here, when you look at things. Crude oil, Neil Dutta, he was out on from Renaissance, out on Bloomberg as well, somewhat before the program. And he's talking about crude, he's making a great argument though, in terms of the gas pump. Man, wholesale gas prices, you're gonna actually see a decline. And it has to do, I'm sure, with the 95 to the 81 drop that we saw, gas has gotta catch up a bit, but you're gonna see gas prices drop maybe 50 cents. So quite a dichotomy going on, right? We got the markets down, we got crude spiking, we have a war, literally breaking out that probably is gonna persist and get much worse in the near term and maybe potentially the longer term, hopefully not, but in the near term, man. You know, I'll have to get that guy's name that was out on Bloomberg. Maybe somebody has, and I saw you talking about it in there at some point, because boy, his verbiage out there, talking about destroying the will of our enemies for generations to come. That's for generations to come. Can't blame him, but boy. Stay tuned folks, we got a lot to market to talk about. October 9th, we'll be back. Three minutes, stay tuned. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee if you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today, TFNN.com, educating investors. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing at number two for the year, an amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability, is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's market newsletter, Mastering Probability, and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free. At TFNN, all our newsletters come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den. Hosted at Discord, TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den. Available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Folks, we got the S&Ps off about 22 points right now. You got the Nasdaq 100 off 99, trading just about 15,000. Dow off 161. The Russell right now, off about 16 points. Yeah, jumping back to some of the headlines. So the journal out there, this morning, quite the visuals, right? Just nonstop, man. And this is, you know, you see some of those buildings in the Gaza Strip. You're talking about high-rise buildings, man. Civilians everywhere. And, you know, that's where nobody's gonna have the perfect answer on this, man. Not to get too philosophical for a whole hour. But what do you do? There is no perfect answer here. So we'll see where we go. But boy, the visuals pretty intense to put it lately. Yeah, and you just got more. It's just not gonna stop me in the visuals. So we could spend the whole hour looking at visuals out there, but we're gonna jump to some market action. And let's kick it off with Tesla, man. Tesla this morning. Tesla, down with the market from 260 to 256. Tesla prices now rival the average US cars after billions in cuts. The latest round of price reductions brings the EVs to a new level of price parity, and they're also driving a wedge between investors. That's the interesting part of this, right? The Model 3 is at $38,990. I think these are the cuts that happened Thursday or Friday. That's $8,700 less than the average amount paid for a car or truck in the US. It's almost nine grand less than the average vehicle price. Think about that, Tesla, an electric Model 3. The starting price for a Model Y is $3,700, below the average auto price of roughly $48,000. Tesla's prices now compete with the average new car, the Model Y and the Model 3 price differential. Look where they were. That's the interesting part, okay? In July of 2018, you were paying almost 14 grand above the US average price of a car. Now, what has happened over that time, though? I wish they had this somehow. What's the average price of the car done since then? It's going up dramatically, okay? So it's not all been Tesla cuts. You've had the average price of the US vehicle go up at the same time that you've had the Model 3, the Model Y and the Teslas, especially over the last year, just get cut in dramatic fashion. This is the starting prices for every model and they reach record lows against the US benchmark, the Model S and the Model X. And as you can see, I mean, they were lofty prices September of 2022. So you're talking about with 13 months into this. Some of Tesla's price cuts is the cost of propping up demand after he bought Twitter. Yeah, I mean, that's gonna matter. It's for a lot of people that are, it's just a fact of life, man. Elon doesn't care and kudos to him for speaking his mind. If that's the deal, there's a lot that I don't agree with what he does. There's a lot I agree with what he does. Everybody should just speak their mind and not be biased by profits, but everything has, you're always speaking your own book to a certain degree, especially the richest person in the world, okay? So he wasn't too worried and that's what always would shock me that somehow Tesla investors, a public company were cool because remember folks, where was the acquisition? Was it here? I think it was. Let's see, I mean, it was pretty lofty prices that he put it out there, that he was coming after Twitter and the market punished him thoroughly and not many other people would have been able to get away with that and still retain their position because of the negative consequences of that. If you're looking at Tesla, man, you're getting quite a bargain compared to where you were at. If you're talking about Tesla profits though, they're in a different game changing scenario in terms of they're going for the masses, that's gonna result in sacrificing profits. You look at this thing longer term, okay? We're in a different stratosphere from where this thing was trading at when we came into the pandemic. Different stratosphere folks. So don't think that there's not a room for some multiple generation changes if they decide to forego profits for an extended period of time to ramp up supply. They are well behind the type of vehicles you're talking about, four GM, et cetera. Look at this market. Look at this market. Are we gonna go positive today? Is the market gonna say that on Monday after war breaks out that stocks and equities are more attractive than they were on Friday? Maybe they are. We're about to find out, man. S&P's off 18 right now. And yeah, so some of the, it's the State Department saying nine Americans killed over there. You got USS Carrier being sent over there, right? So these headlines are not going away and can't overstate it. Now, let's go to the politics of home. And I hope this does accelerate the need to have a speaker of the house because everything gets so political when we're arguing over nonsense in many occasions, okay? And now we have real war breaking outs and the U.S. carriers overseas and we don't have a speaker of our house. So we need a speaker of the house, okay? In case things need to get done, they need to get done in a timely basis. Hopefully this provides an incentive to some of the politicians out there. They see a speaker vote on track as usual adds to urgency. I would put it lightly, man. Gonna be interesting to see how the Republican caucus with the majority plays out here and who's it gonna be? But we find out, I think they're gonna have a vote on Wednesday, right? They're gonna get together for a meeting on Tuesday. Interesting to see what they have going on in that meeting. You have Jim Jordan. You have Scalise. Yeah, no real news, man. But pressure is on and they should get it done because we need a government, especially right now, right? All right, we talked about Tesla. We talked about the markets. Let's jump around to some of the equities this morning. Let's take a look at some of the airlines. See how we're trading. Yeah, drop off there, right? From 128 to 1244. You have all the big airlines, Ceasing Operations and Tel Aviv, American back and off with the market. This isn't gonna crush them, but boy, you get a breakout of war that extends in areas. And yeah, I'm sure that could hurt travel, especially over Europe or something. Delta Airlines, we're gonna be down about a dollar. So they're off well more than the market, right? What's that? Almost a 3% drop for Delta shares on the open. You jump over to United. They're down a dollar as well, 2.5% drop right there. What are you doing, United? Yeah, an American off 30 cents, 2.5%. So you get the airlines off 2.5 to 3% right now. Crude spiking, that's not gonna help them in the same key. We jump over to the big dogs. Amazon shares are lower by about a dollar from 128 to 127, the big dog, Apple. Look at these markets clawing it back, man. Apple down only a dollar right now. We jump over to Microsoft shares. Off a bit to 3.25, 25. We jump over to NVIDIA. NVIDIA trading at 4.48. This thing's been so strong, man. Just pushing all-time highs, right? I mean, look at that jump we got on their record quarter or quarter ago. We're up to 3.77. They had another remarkable quarter back in August. And you're just off of those highs. I mean, just holding on to it. No, no, no pullback of that acceleration at all. All right, let's keep our eye on the dollar index and yield to get the dollar index right now. Shorter term basis, back to a 10-minute chart. Pulling back a bit at 106.33, we keep our eye on yields. Pulling back a bit off the highs we were up at almost 107.23, excuse me. We're backing off a bit at 107.15 right now. And what is that correlating to? As we got yields rising a bit, probably just over, yeah, we're sitting 4.8% the yield on the 10-year. Let's jump over to the VIX as we come into the opening bell. We're just right back to where we were on Monday morning. Imagine that, I mean Friday morning. Right back to where we were Friday morning. Remarkable. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back for the open. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive. He just hosted Forex Strategies and Fundamentals, What is Behind the Tiger Forex report. For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the Dollar Index, the Euro Dollar, Pound Dollar, Dollar Swiss, Dollar Yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive. He just hosted forex strategies and fundamentals, what is behind the Tiger Forex report. For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis, and it's not just dry, tedious text, either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We got markets open. You got the S&P off about 18 points right now. Drifting a little bit higher as we come into that opening bell. We're at 43.10. Basically, when I started the program, we come into the opening bell at 43.23. That's basically pre-market session highs. You open last down in the futures. At just under 43.20, Weber came into the opening bell at session highs and we catch a little bit of a lift right now. Remarkable to put it lightly. All right, let's talk a little bit of Fed. Let's talk about a little bit of Fed policy. You got Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president, Lori Logan, said the recent surge in long-term yields may mean less need for the US central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate. Again, here's the quote, higher-term premiums results in higher-term interest rates for the same setting of the Fed funds rate, all else equal. That was in today in remarks prepared for a speech at the National Association of Business Economics meeting in Dallas. Thus, if term premiums rise, they could do some of the work of the cooling, the economy for us, leaving less need for additional monetary policy tightening. Now, my analysis and opinion would be that they're probably at a pretty restrictive rate and they're gonna try and keep them there if they can. If the data allows them to stay where they are, knowing it's restrictive, because they're at almost 5.5% and the R star is probably not 5.5% right now with the numbers that are coming out. Big jobs number on Friday, right? But what did the market do? The market hung on to and you can't overstate, man. You can't overstate. When I was doing the program, folks, 42.42 was where the 8.50 AM bar on Friday was at. The S&P traded up to almost 43.60. You're talking about almost 3% from where the first move was to where it was. I didn't see that one coming, man, on a hot jobs number like that. But guess what? This market I think is making the calculation that they're gonna try and stay where they are and the market can handle where they are right now and if they stay where they are and we march forward with those types of job gains and wages continue to abate, that's the kicker, wages continue to abate, which is what the market I think clawed into on Friday, then the equities will be okay where we are right now. If the Fed stays where they are and the economy's adding 350,000 jobs, 360, almost 400, 450 when you add in the net additions revisions I should say to the prior two months, you're talking about over 450,000 jobs added in the month and we had wages under what the market was looking for. So that's what the market clawed into. I think the market is taking that to mean that if we continue to see the wages declined, we continue to see inflation numbers declined. I think we have CPI out this Thursday, Wednesday or Thursday this week that the Fed won't have to hike again. And just the fact that maybe they're done hiking, even if we stay where we are for an extended period of time, the market may be okay with that, especially where equities are trading. Now, that's a little bit of a Goldilocks scenario, right? Because who's to say that if they keep rates where we are right now, then inflation will be under control. And that's the kicker and all that. So the data is gonna drive it. And I think on a longer-term basis, we're gonna be stuck at these rates for longer than people expected because the Fed is willing to wait it out at this interest rate policy that they're at. And Lori Logan, she's a voting member of the Fed this year. So, these are calculated remarks folks. This was not the off the cuff answer of a question. These were prepared remarks, okay? And the other thing I was talking about last week is they're talking about the markets doing the work for them a bit here, right? But the other thing to consider is that every time we have inflation waning a bit, rates where they are right now actually become more restrictive on the economy because as inflation cools and growth cools, which is what they're doing by hiking interest rates, right? They're cooling off the economy by making the cost of capital more expensive. Therefore, driving down growth and driving down inflation. So every time you have those numbers come down, the cost of capital is still at 5.5% the Fed rate. So what happens? Well, what happens is as that gap gets wider as inflation and growth comes down and the Fed stays where they are, it's actually more restrictive because the gap is larger from the natural growth rate to the interest rate that the Fed is charging for the overnight lending rate, okay? So as you've had that decline and it's kind of interesting that we first started with interest rates at zero and inflation at 14%, 9%, pick a number, right? You've had inflation come down, you've had interest rates come up. When you hit equal, that's where we keep it all the same. They had to get it where the interest rate was above the natural growth rate, but now as it continues, even keeping interest rates where they are becomes more restrictive. So there's greater incentive to try and not raise interest rates too far because we've seen inflation wane a bit and they know, they believe, they don't know. Shouldn't use the word no, right? They believe that they're in a restrictive policy right now, which they probably are in my opinion. So I imagine they're gonna try and stay right where they are right now. We'll see if war complicates things as it possibly could. We'll see where crude goes as that could complicate things a bit as well, but no real huge reaction, no real huge reaction when you consider the potential here. Crude, just back to where we were last Wednesday at 85, 88 right now. Yields, right? Not spiking above where we're at. You jump over to the dollar index. No, we're chopping around at 106 and changed. Basically been where we at right now. The VIX, what did I say? The VIX, just back to where we were at 11 o'clock in the morning on Friday, just back to where we were in the middle of the day of Thursday. So no spikes yet in this market as the S&P claws back a majority of those losses overnight. We're at 43, 24 right now. And to put this another way, we're 80 points off of the lows of Friday right now. But think about that, right? That's context for you, okay? We're 80 points off of the lows of Friday right now. We are 32 points above where we came into the jobs number on Friday. When we found out that we added basically 450,000 jobs. When you add, what was the headline number? 360 something, net revisions were over 100,000. So you're talking about 460,000 jobs overall, net added. 360 something of those added in the prior month. Market's like, we got no problem with that, man. War in the Middle East. So we'll see where we go, but it is relentless to say the least. All right, what else we got? We got another strike out there. Yeah, Mack truck drivers. They're joining the Detroit Auto Workers. So about 3,900 UAW members with Mack trucks will go on strike Monday after a majority of members rejected a tentative deal reached last week by the union and the company. I mean, that's always the kicker, right? They got a deal between the union and the company and the members were like, nope, voted down by 73% of UAW members who voted significantly shorter with the unions demanding and negotiations currently being held with the Detroit automakers leading some workers to vote against the potential contract. So it's on, man. Employees feeling empowered. We'll see where that goes. But yeah, every time you hear about, you know, these automakers have been making a lot of money over the last five years, man. Even putting out less cars, making a lot of money. All right, let's jump around a bit as we come into this break. Markets behaving pretty well. All things considered. You get the S&Ps down 410% and Hasdeck 100. You're off by about 810% right now. Look at the Dow. Look at this. Pushing positive gets it all back. Dow spikes 200 points from where we were trading when we came on the program. Dow only down by four. Russell off by seven right now. Crew pushing higher to 86, 20. You got the gold contract. Up $13 at 1858. Stay tuned folks, we'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. tfnn.com, educating investors. Will the S&P 500 continue to climb for bold trades on U.S. large-cap stocks in either direction, trade SPXL, SPUU, or SPXS, directions daily, S&P 500, bull and bear, leveraged ETFs. Direction leveraged ETFs. An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit DirectionInvestments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, four-side fund services, LLC. tfnn has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of tfnn.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Back folks, we got the SMPs continuing to claw back the losses. We're only off by 11 points right now. Dow pulls back a bit, they almost got positive. Dow off 21, NASDAQ 100 leading the way in losses off about six tenths percent. Right now you have the Russell, about three tenths percent in the red. Over to a Bloomberg article we go, talking about free money is gone, man. The headline out here, the free money experiment is over, carnage from the bond market where the route is worse than anything you'll find in the history books is spreading and the implications are nasty. Now here's what they say is that, excuse me, you got Bank of America, recently got their hands on US bond market data going all the way back to the founding of the nation and it shows they say that never before has there been an extended period of losses like the past three years. They also say how often could bonds have traded during the war of 1812? Are the figures as accurate as they are right now? Worth mentioning, right? The reliability of some of that data, but you don't gotta be a market wizard, man, to go over some of these charts, right? I mean, we've talked about it. It makes what the banks did like Silicon Valley even more astounding in terms of there's your 30 year. Here's where they dumped all their money into this investment, okay? And that's as far as you go back to 1996 on the 30 year, I think it is, yeah, it is. But some of the charts in here, so we'll get over the article, okay? They talk about the debt, of course, and they're talking about the supply the US government is going to markets with, okay? There's just an, it's a vicious cycle as rates rise. As rates rise, deficits grow, as deficits grow, the amount of debt we need to service goes up, of forcing us to issue more treasuries, okay? US government's marketable debt, I mean, 1983, man, 937 billion could have gotten a few, we could have gotten a few people. I mean, Trump can pay that off tomorrow, man, right? It was under a trillion dollars back in 1983. You get Bezos, you get Elon, you get Trump himself. They pay it all off America's debt-free and we owe three people that service. Can't do that anymore when we're at 25 trillion and they weren't worth that kind of money in 1983, okay? But yes, there's quite a change of the trajectory of this and it's real when you look at this market, okay? I mean, do the real math of loaning the US government some money for 30 years, do you have the reliability that you're getting paid reliably for 30 years? Cause I don't. I don't think I would make that calculation that I'm getting paid reliably for 30 years. I don't think you should. I think that would be an irresponsible assessment and I think that you would probably wanna demand a greater interest rate for talking about the reliability of a 30-year payment. Do I think the country's gonna default on their debt? I hope not for sure. But jumping through some of these charts here, okay? This is talking about the annual return of the Bloomberg US aggregate index bonds, bond benchmark index returns. Three years like nothing we've ever seen combined, minus one and a half, minus 13, and we're down again this year at probably like 2% or something like that. Yeah, check it out, right? That the 10-year got as low as 0.3%. Imagine that, man. And those poor people that pulled their money out of equities and dumped it into that 0.3% cause that is correlating to, excuse me, ZN, the 10-year. Like when the market was at lows, right? You would have been buying the 10-year at 140, 24 as rates collapsed, markets collapsed all in one. And meanwhile, rates have continued to rise as the market basically has continued to rise. Cause you back up where the S&P was at the marshmallows, you were down to 2,200. So you had people selling their equities at 2,200, you had 2,500 and you had them putting their money into fixed income at a price of 140. So what did you do? You forego a 100% acceleration in equities to lock in a 30% loss in fixed income. It's a quick lesson of fixed income, folks, if you don't hold to maturity. And a lot of people don't realize that when they're buying, whether it's bond funds, et cetera, that they're not holding to maturity and you get a move like this and boy, are you exposed. So we got three years of returns that have never happened before and yeah, what makes this moment all the more shocking? We were at 2% day after day, year after year in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. So rock bottom rates made sense, right? They don't make sense anymore. Okay, and that's why I keep going back to this 30 year. Here's 2008 on the chart. Okay, here's where we're trading at right now. We're basically where we came into the financial crisis at. Don't get misguided by the price action that's occurred over the last 12 years because that might never come back. It's not coming back anytime soon. That's for sure. Let's hope it's not, because boy, if it does, we're all in trouble in terms of what that means about growth, about potential, about everything because a financial crisis brought that upon. But yeah, you back this up any further. I bring this comparison, okay? If you think that rates can't go any higher, consider this, on a 30 year basis, I graduated college in the year of 2002. Look at where the price action was from 1996 to 2002. We're trading right now at 110. The year I graduated high school, what were we pushing? I graduated in, yeah, the middle of 1998. The 30 year was at 101, right? My junior and senior year, it was as low as 89. We're living in a different world, man. So don't get caught up in the fact that this thing traded to 190. Remember how normal things seemed during the late 90s. Can't believe I'm saying that, because it's 2023. How the heck did I get this old? But for those of you that don't know that, okay? Nobody was talking about that the world was ending because of high rates. This was not the astronomical rates that we saw in the early 80s and inflation of 18% mortgages. That's not what was happening there, okay? It was not that high. This was a more normal environment. And I feel like that might be something that we're coming back to right now. And it's just taking a little time, and I mean a little time, right? To get back to there. But you're talking about CDs in the den. Let's take a look at where we are in CDs. Excuse me, because yeah, the ladder is a good deal. We'll continue to talk about it. Where's our five year ladder right now? 5.13%, the five year ladder. You got a one year, two year, three year, four year, and a five year CD. That way you reset that rate every year. You don't expose yourself to duration as much. When you do that, and right now, when you add up the one, two, three, four and five year, you give yourself an average percentage yield and APY of 5.13%. The one year and two year are basically at 5.45 because you have the three month, six month, nine month somewhere near about 5.5%. You go out a year or two years, you're getting about 5.5% because the market knows the Fed's staying there for about a year or two, especially CD rates. You go out five years, you're still getting 5.13%. That's a remarkable risk-free rate of return right now with everything going on in this market. But guess what? Even a Middle East war cannot hold this market down. Are we gonna be positive by the time I get off the air in about seven minutes? Stay tuned, folks. We'll come back for one more segment. S&Ps only down single digits off by nine. We'll take a look at some of the other equities when we get back. Stay tuned. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com. Educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. We're gonna charge a Disney up here up about 1% this morning. So you got activist investor Nelson Peltz and his firm Tri-Infund Management. Reigniting a potential proxy war with Disney less than a year after dropping the initial battle, they got 30 million shares, $2.5 billion is their position. I think if you jump over here, I mean, what's Disney at now, 80 billion? No, 153, they've had quite an acceleration. Okay, so you're still talking about almost a 2% position of ownership in the company. We had a caller, Charlie from Frammingham last week talking about Disney on a longer-term basis. You know what I'm saying? Listen, you're getting this at prices, I think he called it some point middle of last week, right, in the 70s. Longer-term basis didn't say load up the boat, okay? Because this market, loading up the boat on anything in this market. You wanna be diversified, folks, even adding in a little risk-free rate of return of 5.13% on a five-year ladder. But boy, you're at some attractive prices when you look at this thing going back five years. You're at COVID lows when nobody was going to movie theaters and no one was going to theme parks and we didn't even know if business was gonna exist in the current form of how we had it. You come back, you test those lows, what do we do it? We test it on dramatically lighter volume. I mean, you're compared yourself to the COVID lows. That's a weekly chart we're looking at, okay? I mean, look at these numbers. COVID, we did 169 million. The last two weeks, we did 64 and 64. 64 and 64, yeah, 64 and 64, we're popping a bit. But he's back in there, again, pelts. So they got $2.5 billion. The firm plans to push from multiple seats on the board this time, including one for pelts. This is kind of what they were doing earlier, right? And then he dropped that after they made some changes. The nomination window for the new board members opens December 5th, so he's got a couple months and runs until January 4th. So keep Disney on your radar. I was also going over last week when Charlie called in Framingham, the potential movies that they got coming out. And as I was mentioning then folks, you got three Star Wars movies over like 18 months, about two, two and a half years away. But if you look at longer term, right, maybe you scale into this equity, kind of the way you scale into a CD, right? That's what a ladder is. You scale into it, one, two, three, four, five. You scale into Disney, take a position now. Take one in three months, take another in three, take another in three, you scale in over the period of nine months. Nonetheless, Disney up on a negative day. Market relentless to the upside. We are negative at only six points. Stay tuned folks, a lot of market action to come. Basil Chat is up next with the Tiger Technicians