 Hello and welcome to news clicks show mapping fault lines where we discuss major geopolitical issues from across the world Today, we're going to be talking about the United States moving the United Nations asking for Sanctions to be reimposed on Iran now the sanctions were withdrawn as part of the Iran nuclear deal in 2015 of which the US was also a member the US of course withdrew from this deal in 2018 but the other members have continued to be part of the deal But it is now insisting that Iran has violated the deal and so the sanctions the UN sanctions should be reimposed We've talked more about this. We haven't just prepared for this. Thank you so much for joining us So it's it's a bit strange right now because we have the United States Which is no longer part of the deal for almost two years now And now it is approached the United Nations demanding that everyone should follow its lead Although no one else none of the other members of the Iran nuclear deal seemed to have any issues with Since this is a show on fault lines Let's look at the fault lines one of course is the obvious fault line between the United States in Iran And nothing really has changed on that but what we are seeing is the emergence of a new fault line between the United States and all the other Members who signed the agreement along with the United States with Iran in the JCPOA now in that agreement It's United States which withdrew in 2018 in fact It said that we cannot continue with this agreement. We are withdrawing. We're no longer a party to that's his official position Now if you claim that you are not party to an agreement Can you now come back and say other parties have not fulfilled the agreement and therefore now they must Under the agreement they must do ABC. So can you in other words have your case And eat it too or rather having eaten it you really have your cake now This is the really the issue that is there now I'm not going to getting into the legal issues involved because from what the experts have said and legal experts have said the European Union representatives have said All of them seem to be saying that the original agreement as signed has no Proposition that the participating state is a participating state Irrespective of whether it withdraws or it doesn't so a participating You the state is a state which is participating in the agreement not what it was when it was founded That's only a statement of fact. So these are the participating states which have drawn up the agreement therefore US is trying to play completely different things one is agreement itself and Other is the United Nations risk security council resolution and therefore this is not a legal or a tenable Interpretation leaving that out, you know, this is the legal part of it Which you know as as you would know lawyers can spend hours discussing Splitting hairs in effect. So we don't want to get into lawyerly debates in this That's best best left to lawyers So question is really what is likely to happen? There are two things over here One is what is US really asking US is asking that though nobody else wants to sanction Iran Because I have sanctioned Iran. I have pulled out of the deal. So originally Iran was supposed to have taken a set of steps Now it's in violation of some of the steps It's in fact in rare in enriched uranium stock has now gone up after the US withdrew that it is in violation So I am bringing this violation to the notice and the snapback sanctions to take place Even though I'm no longer a party to the agreement. There's a power I have from the original agreement This none of the other countries are willing to accept now a simple issue is Nothing can be placed on the agenda of the security council without nine members Voting for it. It needs a majority for the agenda to be passed So even if not they they don't have even if they don't have a Majority that's not the issue. You don't me and there is no veto on the agenda So therefore simply put this agenda may never come up in front of the security council If there are not seven there are I think nine votes for it that would be security council Majority that would be required. So this may never come on the agenda therefore you US would declare that because there is no Resolution which stops the snapback snapback has occurred because because I have given a notice and Therefore now snapback exists as per United Nations Even if United Nations does not say so So therefore any country and pop you is on record saying this any country which does not obey my Sanctions and the United Nations sanctions, which I have declared has taken place now Will be now the subject of my sanctions. So not Iran Anybody who does not accept what I'm saying will now be subject to my sanctions It's a threat of sanctioning the whole world. So that is the point I'm making of course The United States by holding the financial levers of the world the swift transaction system Effectively has cared all the European allies in not trading with Iran on the question of why so Iran is finding it very difficult to sell oil because the transactions are generally Completed through that swift System so the swift system being in the hands of the United States This makes it extremely difficult for big companies and also for countries and more importantly for them the banking Regulations are such that it would touch us big banks or into touch banks Even in Europe and because these banks are dealing with the US if they come under sanctions, that's the risk They don't want to take So how to circumvent the US triangle hold on the financial system has been the key challenge That would continue to be the key challenge But the issue in this particular case is that I don't think us is looking that it will get its way in the United Nations It is going to go Unilaterally saying that I Consider that the snapback has taken place because a security council resolution that is a snapback proposition a security council Resolution would be required to mean that for the snapback not to occur the subsequent to a complaint being raised in the JCPOA So the snapback has occurred according to it because it considers itself for the purpose of this Maneuver it considered it's still an original member of the JCPOA so now it claims the security council resolution has not taken place and if it does not happen within 30 days that the US Interpretation is the UN sanctions are holding good even though UN's Interpretation is not going to be that doesn't like look likely It's going to be that given the fact the Western European countries Trans-Germany and UK don't seem to be going along with it Russia and China obviously not with it So given five countries are not with it. It's unlikely It's going to get a majority even on the agenda of the United Nations Security Council So given all of this, that's not the real issue. The real issue is that how much can United States Push the rest of the world in dealings with Iran already the United States sanctions have in effect Made Iran's life difficult and it's made Iran's exports really come down particularly on the issue of oil So given all of that that is really where the US is wielding its powers So I think the snapback sanction is just another Propaganda ploy by Pompeo Trump and it is Claiming a victory it will claim a victory that it has succeeded because the snapback is in place Because it gave a notice so it is increasingly going to live in this fractured world Where the reality according to Trump and Pompeo are different according to the reality of all others but the problem is the financial control that the US has and that is something that the Other countries will have to address sooner or later Except if they do not agree with the United States The question is how far are they willing to go to create a truly? Multi-polar world in terms of not only the geo strategic issues But also in terms of the financial architecture of the world and I think that's Increasingly going to become the issue. That's how can European Union and this is really about European Union It is UK. It is France. It is Germany all three have disagreed in the United States on the JCP way On the question of Iran and the value of the Iran nuclear deal So are they willing to buck the United States or not? This is another pressure that the US is putting on them. How far they're willing to stand up to it is really the question And this context we do know that The European Union launched instex which was supposed to be an alternative payment mechanism to the United States dominated Swift Mechanism and although it was not really very effective. It was basically meant only for humanitarian trade Nonetheless, it did mark a step. So do you think that the possibility of the US again? Becoming more aggressive on these sanctions might again say push back some of these initiatives or need to them being abandoned You know, I think the real issue that is Increasingly going to be faced and it's going to be faced on a number of counts is Does the European Union have an independent position? Particularly when it does not agree with the United States Now you can have an independent position, but you're ineffective in that position You don't do anything about it. You make some vague noises that you don't pursue it If that is the proposition that is there, then of course European Union will do nothing. The question is as Increasingly United States starts disagreeing with the European Union a number of issues. It's not only Iran The other breaks that are going to come on that is trading with China for example Trading with the with the Russians with the Russian That is the issue of what you know the Nord Stream pipeline oil pipeline and on that. It's a Germany Turkey countries like that which are on the crosshairs of the United States So are they willing to do something on that now all of this is I Suspect coming to a head if Trump wins the election if Trump doesn't win the election Maybe Biden will try to get something back and try to reestablish some kind of NATO unity and the moment the US position is my allies don't help me much I'm carrying the burden. They have to sing my tune. I'm I have the Military power to protect them and therefore they have to follow whatever I say now if that is a position they don't accept and Increasingly with the fact that Russia and China are now clearly On the other side, what is the European Union's position be will it become an economic power? If it is an economic power, will it play its own hand or it will still be dictated by the United States That's a real question and I think Iran as much as China as well as the issue with the Nord Stream and Russia, I think all of it brings it out now, you know for a European Union the bigger issue would be for instance Ukraine Belarus and Russia because they are still part of Europe So what do they do over there now? They have followed blindly almost On the dot the lead of the United States now UK after Brexit is going to go much closer to the United States What about the rest of the European Union that is something that we have to see already on the issue for instance of the data protection law You might be aware that on the data protection law The European Union's court has given a judgment that data cannot be taken a personal data of European Union citizens cannot be taken out to the United States servers because United States servers do not Provide the European Union citizens with the same legal protection that the European Union Provides or the question of privacy and it clearly boils down to the fact that the United States does not provide any legal protection Against intelligence agencies of the United States looking at personal data That is there stored on the service if they're non-U.S citizens if they're US citizens We know the bulk orders are issued but the fees are core So it's not much of a protection either but please there is a fig leaf of a protection There is none for non-citizens of the US that's something that should concern India as well But the European Union the highest court in the European Union has given a judgment all that and there are also issues Regarding this big for GAFA as it is being called Google, Apple Facebook and Amazon and also Microsoft if you add to that I think they are a combined Mark market capitalization is to the more than six trillion Okay, and that would make them in if it was if you take that equivalent If we take that equivalent to the GDP of countries and that would make them the third largest in the world Given that size of the market power that these Software companies or digital monopolies wheel the European Union also has certain Economic issues with the United States now. It's a Uncharted territory for the European Union which way it will go till now it has not bucked the United States. It has Said yes, we don't agree with the United States But they haven't as we have discussed they haven't really provided any concrete action in terms of Accepting Iran's oil for example So given that what is it that it is going to do you talked about the Exchange foreign exchange mechanism. They have set out with Iran Russia is also a similar exchange, but the point is whichever bank deals with it even if it's a big bank of you know Europe any of the European Union countries the French banks or the German banks and all of these Transactions will take place to the banks that themselves come under sanctions now can therefore to do that There's the same issue with State Bank of India State Bank of India was earlier taking, you know Was allowing transactions including Iran's oil it was stated with sanctions by the United States Can the State Bank of India do that and as you know US is no compunction and seizing assets of Foreign companies and foreign countries So given that everybody is scared that we have a rogue state Which is the global hegemon and how do we fight it now? I think that's the challenge European Union is facing to be Iran nothing has changed That the same strength of a facing they're still facing the real threat this time is to all other countries in the world And that too those countries which are supposed to be the US allies How far are they willing to go or how far are the willing to bend that is a question And will they continue to bend or now will they take a position? No, we have to work out What is called strategic autonomy? You know the strategic autonomy is something we have been using in our show regarding India Well, I'm it is strange But I'm beginning to see the phrase being talked off more and more in the European Union as well About what about strategic autonomy? We should be looking for strategic autonomy or will the Germany Germans the French other European Union countries accept that they have they can bark but they can't bite when it comes to the United States and Therefore all the noise they will make will be nothing So I think the real issue of this of course are twofold One is where the Trump will whether the pandemic storm in the United States and come back in in the elections At the moment these prospects don't look so bright, but neither did it look bright last time Right, so we can always be wrong on that one this time Maybe more grounds to think that he may not win the election But more important than this is a much longer issue Does the United States have the ability to bend all its allies to its will even when it is in the wrong? And that is something that we have to watch for Thank you so much for be for doctors. That's all we're time for today. Keep watching