 Happy Friday Navigation Traders. Today is May 1st. Welcome to this weekend's video update. Let's jump right into the alerts and then we'll get into thoughts on the overall market here as we go through. Starting with Monday the 27th. First trade was a closing adjusting trade in GC. So we closed out the remaining call vertical side that we had from a previous iron condor and then we've still got a full one hanging on. So let's take a look at GC. And here's the full iron condor because the price is hanging out right here. So kind of in the lower half of our range but still well within side. So just waiting for some more time to pass and theta 2 decay in our favor. Next trade opening trade in SPX. So we put on a weekly double calendar in SPX. So we had one on in SPY and then we added this one with just four days to expiration to the front week. Price had moved around. Vol had dropped. So that's always a good not always. That is typically a good opportunity to put on a new trade. And so that's what we did there. And then we actually closed that out today. So I'll get to that here just in a second. Next trade was a rolling adjusting trade in SMH. So we had a short strangle got down to 18 days to expiration. Rolled that out to June. And then adjusted the strike slightly. So let's take a look at SMH. There's our bunker. I'll get to that in a second. So prices with this big down move down almost 5% today price coming right back into center for us on that adjusted short strangle in SMH. Next trade closing trade in XRT. So we had a bunker left in XRT. We were under that 60 days expiration like we teach in the course and didn't have much of a chance of getting anywhere. So we just went ahead and close that out. Rolling adjusting trade in XLK. So one of our short delta positions. This is a long put vertical. It was down to 18 days. But more importantly price had run higher to a point where there's very little chance of getting back into range. And the theta was just decaying away from us. So when that happens, we want to we want to kind of get back to a positive theta position, extend that duration. And of course we want to keep that short delta in our portfolio. Speaking of short delta, we are at about one and a half between one and a half and two to one on our ratio. So for every $100 of theta, we've got about $200, $250 of short delta. So I like where we're at here, especially definitely helped out with these last couple of days and the down movement that we have seen in the market. So let's take a look at XLK. And you can see price is pretty close to where we where we rolled it. So not much up or down since then, although XLK is down 2.7% today. So it's a little bit higher. And it's come back down right to where we put it on, right to where we rolled it. Next trade rolling adjusting trade in DIA. So this is a short call vertical. This was down to 18 days. But more importantly, again, it was so far out of range that we just we needed to get back to a positive theta position. And so let's take a look at DIA. We've still got two positions in here, two separate short call verticals. One is with four contracts. One is with three. And so the first one is right there. Price is pretty similar to where we rolled it. And then the three contract one, we've got a little bit of profit on that piece. And so just holding these for that short delta exposure. And these are both in June. So we won't be looking to roll those out anytime soon. I did a closing trade in SPX. So we had an iron duck in SPX with the price running higher. We just booked a beak profit on that trade. So exited early. And, you know, the the call spread was five points wide, right to 2775 and 2780. We got out for 490. So we booked a little bit more than a big profit on that one. Opening trade in FXI. So we put on another bunker as we've been doing as this market has continued to climb higher in anticipation of a potential down move. We put on this FXI bunker trade. And you can see FXI is down 3% today. So make a nice work of that. We're up about 400 bucks. And so I get a lot of questions about, well, how low does it need to go before we take this off? If you look at a chart of FXI, I mean, you know, this is really nothing as it relates to this overall move that we've seen to the upside. So I'd like to see a move, you know, down to at least 35 or 34, if not lower. You know, we did this with a small underlying. So a people small accounts could take advantage as well. But also, you know, you can always scale out, you know, for the for the alerts, I don't know, we may we may scale out of part of it at a time. I don't like to do that for the alerts. I kind of like to put it on and take it off just for tracking and for simplicity and lack of confusion for our members. But obviously, when in your trades, if you've done multiple contracts like we have, you can always kind of scale out of that as it goes in your favor. Or, you know, it depends on your other positions, right? It depends on how much short delta you need. It depends on your other positions. It depends on your directional assumption. So there's a lot of factors in there. I always talk about, you know, 90% of what we do is mechanical, but there's a 10% subjectivity to these trades that, you know, you've got to, you've got to kind of make an assumption and take ownership of what you're going to do. But we will, we will probably hold it down to, like I said, at least down to 35 and if not beyond. So that's the plan. And again, it'll depend on where our short delta position, like if we still need short delta and we get down there, we'll probably leave it on a little bit longer. You know, that's kind of part of the decision you got to make. So that's FXI, rolling adjusting trading QQQ. So very similar to DIA got down to 17 days to expiration. But more importantly, just getting back this to a positive theta position. Let's take a look at QQQ. We've got two sets of short call verticals. Here's the one. Oh, no, that's both of them together. Here is one of them. And here's the other. So the strikes are very similar. Just because we rolled our one from May and at the position it was in, made them both similar. So again, just holding these for that short delta. Next trade, rolling adjusting trade in IWM. So another short delta position. This one is a long put vertical in IWM and rolled that from May to June and then adjusted those strikes up as the market had moved. So we've got two of these ones with two contracts here. Price is hanging out right here. It was out of range. Got back into range today with the Russell down over 4% big move in the Russell. And then this one, you know, we're at a point where we're, you know, could get to the point where we're, you know, potentially even taking profits or rolling our strikes closer. We're going to go ahead and let this thing run for now. Next trade, closing adjusting trade in SPY. So we closed out the put vertical side of our iron condor in SPY. Price breached our breakeven. There's very little value left in those puts. And so we closed it out. So if we go to SPY, take a look. It's this one right here in May. And so now price has made all the way back into range here. So if we get a little bit more down movement, you know, even Monday morning, we may take this off and book a profit on our May piece overall. And then today, I'll get to this alert here in a second, but I might as well just show you now, this is, we put on a new iron condor in June. So you can see price is pretty dead centered in this one because we just put it on. The other thing, I mentioned this in the alert, but I guess sometimes I get questions about this on SPY, SPX, you know, when you put these on there, there's such a heavy put skew. I mean, the puts trade so much richer than the calls that if you were to put these wings on equidistant. So, you know, three on this side and three on this side, what happens is your P and L curve, you know, it basically looks very similar as it does on this side. But then when it gets to the upper end, it really just drops off, falls off a cliff. And so what we do is on the call side, we keep these three points wide. And on a put side, we make those five points wide. And what that does is give us a much nicer, evenly distributed balance on our P and L curve. And so I just want to make sure I've talked about that before, but I just want to clarify that as well. While I'm on SPY, I've also got a bunker here. Now we put this on and price moved higher on us. So now we're coming back. And so now we're just starting to get to our upward curve. So we need some more down movement to get into a positive profit on our spy bunker. Opening trade in Facebook. So we did a post earning, haven't done one of these in a while, but did a post earnings, short put vertical in Facebook. And if you remember from the course, if not go back and review it because there's more detail that I'll talk about here. But basically is anytime a stock announces earnings and their price opens above the expected move. Okay. So the expected move in Facebook was like 11 or 12 bucks. And price opened above that it opened more than $12 higher the next morning. And so what when that happens, typically you're going to get kind of steady to higher prices in that stock. So we like to sell puts or sell a put vertical or do some type of bullish strategy. And so that's what we did here. Now, obviously everything is down today. And so our Facebook is not getting the upward movement that it normally would. But this is, so what I like to do, and I talked about this in the community as well, is people are asking, okay, we see you have a profit target, but what's your exit point on a losing trade? And it's defined risk. So you've got to define your risk at order entry. And so we don't have an exit point. We're not exiting for a certain percentage or multiple of max profit or credit or anything like that. We're really just holding this to see if it works. And yeah, I haven't, I'll have to look to verify for sure. But especially in the alerts, I don't think we've had a losing one of these trades, you know, in several years. I mean, they just, they're so, they work so well. And obviously with the, with the market down, you know, two, three, four percent, everything's getting, getting dragged down with it. So you see Facebook is down today, but definitely not down as much as the rest of the market. I mean, it's only down a little over 1% as, whereas the rest of the market is down three, four plus percent. So, you know, so we're getting a little pullback here. But what I said in the community was, you know, if we get back to down in this area, the, about the 197 level, which is kind of the top of the, the day right before earnings, sometimes, sometimes the price likes to bounce off that as well after these earnings. So either if it opens above the expected move, which I've indicated by this red line here, a lot of times it'll grind higher, or sometimes it'll come back down to yesterday's, to the day before's day, and then it'll, it'll climb. So we may actually add to this. If we get another huge down move in the market and it pulls Facebook down, we may add to that right here. We've got plenty of short delta. So no issue adding a little long delta in, just to, just to kind of balance the portfolio anyway. So that is the plan. And then, you know, obviously we look to take a percentage of max profit once the thing starts going in our favor. So that's the plan in Facebook. Next trade closing trade in SPY. So we had a weekly double calendar in SPY and we booked a small profit. I did, if you, if you missed the video, one of the trade hacker updates, I think it was yesterday, Thursday, or it could have been Wednesday, but I think it was yesterday. I discussed the risk versus reward of holding onto the position. So I posted here in the alert, and then I got a couple questions about this in the community. You know, can you explain the risk versus reward of holding until tomorrow? And basically what I was looking at is, okay, here's the amount of profit we have today. What's the potential of profit that we could have tomorrow? And in just a very slight movement of the underlying stock, it would have put us in a worse position than if we took it off on Thursday. And so looking at that scenario, it just made sense to take it off with one day's expiration. And remember, with these, you know, taking it off anywhere from one days to zero days to expiration is what we will always do. We never take it off at a percentage of profit or a percentage of debit paid or anything like that. That just over time, that is not the most profitable way to do this. The most profitable way to do is put it on and take it off at zero or one days to expiration or exit if you get to a certain loss point like we talked about. But taking it off at a percent of debit paid or, you know, I'm up a couple hundred bucks, I'm just going to take it. We don't do that. And it's just, you know, it may work out for you one time, it may work out for you a couple of times. But over time, the amount of risk you're taking for taking those small profits is going to bite you because you've got to take, you've got to try to maximize as much profit as you can. And by holding it to one day or zero days to expiration, that's how you're going to maximize profits over time, not by taking small profits. So that's what we did in SPY. Next we had closing trade in SPX. So this is today, so we had a very similar position on in SPX. And we closed that one out, booked a real nice profit over 800 bucks on this one. And of course, a lot of that has to do with the A, we could have used a little bit of down movement like we got to get back into the center. And B, with the down movement comes a pop in volatility. So both of those things working together, you know, we could have taken it off yesterday for a few hundred bucks, but today we took it off for 800. So, you know, that's why if it's in good shape, we will hold it. If it's kind of on the edge, and you know, if one little move can kind of bring us to a loss, we'll take it off with one date expiration. But that's kind of how we look at that. And so that's, and again, it's a little bit of flexibility between one day and zero days. So you got to kind of make that decision, but ended up working out very well for us on this one. Next trade, opening adjusting trade in SPY. So I already showed you that we added an iron condor in SPY in the June cycle. And then lastly, opening trade in SPX. So we did an iron duck. We've been waiting for a little bit of down movement to throw on some ducks. And we've been a little bit light on the ducks on this big rally that we've had. So jumping back in, and now of course, we would have wished that we did it later in the day because of the big price movement that's happened since this morning. But you can see, so we're just down about 40 bucks. So it's not a big deal. But we've got this huge buffer to the downside all the way down to about 26.38, 26.37. So all the way down here in this area, until we hit our break even point, max profit in this area, and of course, no risk to the upside. So that is the value of the duck. So those are all the trade alerts. Let's take a look at all the positions that we didn't talk about starting with 6E. So 6E has come back into range nicely. We're up about 1,100 bucks since we did the roll, obviously still down on the trade overall, working our way back to profits, but making a nice move in our favor here. ES, we've got two long put verticals, one's way out of range here. And I was going to roll this today, but decided to wait until next week. We already did several rolls today. And then this one here is pretty close to where we put it on or pretty close to where we rolled it. So just holding these for that short delta exposure. I mentioned GC, Natty Gas. We've got this, was a strangle adjusted into a straddle. We're up about 530 bucks since we did that roll, just working our way back to profits in Natty. ZB, oh yeah. Okay. So I wanted to spend a couple minutes on this. So ZB price is hanging out right here. We're right at 21 days to expiration. So we wanted to roll this today, but take a look at this. And I've actually got a question into TOS about this. And I haven't heard back yet. They are super slow on the chat. In fact, maybe they'll chime in while we're doing the video here, but 21 days to expiration. And so the goal would be to roll this out to the next expiration cycle, which would be the one with 56 days. But if you open that up and take a look, the problem is, look at the open interest. It's basically non-existent. You've got 40 contracts here and nothing anywhere else. And then look at the bid ask spreads. We've got $2 by 226, 142 by 2. And these bid ask spreads are just astronomical. If you compare that to the cycle that we're currently in with 21 days to expiration, we've got thousands of contracts of open interest at every strike. We've got three tick wide, two tick wide bid ask spreads. So something's a little goofy. I'm not sure exactly what it is in that next cycle. So I'm waiting to get some confirmation from TOS, but we're just going to hold this over the weekend. Obviously, if we get a little bit of down movement in ZB, that'll make it even better for us. So that's the plan. Wheat, I think I already mentioned this one. Yeah, we've got an iron condor in wheat. Price is hanging out right here. Apple, we've got a long put vertical price just inside range right here. So just waiting for some more downside to benefit that. DE, we've got two different pieces on DE down big today. John Deere taking a little beaten down 4.82%. And price on this one is hanging out outside. It was way down here. I was going to roll it earlier this week and I just held on and it's made a nice move back for us. Still not back into range yet, but much better when we do go to roll this one. And then this one here is inside the range. So looking for some downside in DE. I mentioned DIA, I mentioned Facebook, I mentioned FXI, IWM, QQQ, SMA, just PX, XBI. We've got this inverted strangle. We've made up about $546 since we did our last roll here. And so just playing the waiting game in XBI. And then lastly XLK. I can't remember if I mentioned this one. XLK, we've got this long put vertical just holding on for that short delta exposure. So those are all the positions. Those are all the alerts. If we get some more downside next week. I mean, that's the question, where's this thing going to go? Is this a buy the dip opportunity? Is this just a tiny little dip and we're going to continue to rip higher? Or is this thing going to fall apart on the back of unemployment and the economic issues caused by the coronavirus and all that stuff? So that's the magic question. Nobody knows. Obviously, we are positioned with some short delta for that downside, but we will also stay mechanical and continue to add additional positions, maybe add another duck if it goes down, sell some more premium, all that good stuff. So everybody have a great weekend. Talk to you next week.