 Hello everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug. Streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the general disclosure. All bookmap limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk disclosure. Creating futures equities and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The focus of my presentation and the focus of the Options-Doug chat channel in Discord is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning and I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned to the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day as well as a directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. And I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow in Spot Gamma Hero to confirm my thesis and for setups for entries and exits. And when I talk about setups I will be talking about an underlying asset and those setups can be taken any number of ways with futures, shares of stock, or options. And let me just address one thing. My approach, my audience is not well my approach is not necessarily is not really scalping futures. There are plenty of other traders in Bookmap that have presentations daily. Bruce for example that looks at a smaller zoomed-in view more than I do. So I'm looking at a bigger picture trying to again focusing on the big picture and looking at setups that are appropriate again for trading, buying and selling options or shares of stock. Not necessarily again scalping futures. So that's my approach looking at a larger time frame, larger timeframe, bigger picture view. Questions and comments are welcome and I will be watching both the options dash Doug chat channel and discord as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. So please feel free to post your questions and comments. I'll keep an eye out for them and Karm FX. Hello. Happy Friday to you as well. Glad you're here. All right. Let's get started. My agenda for today. I want to go over news items, events and earnings for today and just briefly cover next week. And then next week I'll talk about that more in detail on Monday. It's a big week next week. And then I'll go through my positional analysis for today. Then I'll review some setups and then we'll take a look at the live market. And when we get to live market, if anybody has any stocks they want me to take a look at, please let me know. And Bull X traders asked, do Wall Street professional traders use Bookmap or other platforms? Well, I'm, you know, I don't know specifically, but I would imagine that there are many professional traders that use Bookmap and a few of them they're not Wall Street professionals speak on the Bookmap YouTube channel on a regular basis. All right. Karm FX. Thank you for your kind words. All right. So let's talk about today. First of all, the there are a couple of things going on today. First of all is the monthly options expiration. And this is was a call dominated or is a call dominated expiration as I've spoken about this week. We'll just take a quick look at SPX. This is delta notional for the July expiration. Pretty similar chart actually these delta notional is higher for SPX and QQQ. But what this is showing is call delta with the orange line and blue delta with the blue bar. So positive gamma environment call dominated expiration. And as that call gamma positive gamma that has been supporting the market expires that can tend to lead to weakness after a call dominated expiration. So that is what spot gamma is looking for next week. And that has started somewhat this week, perhaps with the the catalyst of the Tesla and Netflix earnings. All right. So call dominated expiration today. There was a PM AM settlement for SPX and there's also also a PM settlement. So AM settlement has already happened. PM settlement this afternoon. So the next thing is the NASDAQ rebalance. And apparently that that will take place at the close today. This is an article on Tasty Live. So you know if anybody wants more details on this, I urge you to just go to Tasty Live. This is free. You can take a look at this. So what this is showing is the the weighting index weights as of July 14. And then the new weights. And it's really impacting mostly the magnificent seven. And it looks like Nvidia and Microsoft are taking the largest hits at just around minus 3%. So that takes place this weekend. The NASDAQ rebalance. All right. Next week, big week. I will cover this on Monday. But before I my presentation on Monday, PMI data does come out Monday morning. And of course, the biggest event for the week is the FOMC meeting and announcement on Wednesday. That will be during my session. Then also durable goods, GDP, PCE and consumer sentiment come out later on in the week. And then also next week, Google, Microsoft and meta report earnings. So again, more detail on that next week, next Monday. Let's get started with the positional analysis now. This is the S&P 500 in Bookmap ES Futures. And before I take a closer look at this chart, I'm going to take a look at a larger time frame. This is SPX in a 30 day one hour chart. This is showing the uptrend that began around 4,400 last Monday has finally found some weakness as the call dominated July expiration approaches. And trading, it looks like it's we'll take a closer look at SPX in just a minute. So let me point out some levels on this chart. First of all, the lower and upper weekly expected move shown with the dash purple lines. And the reason this upper line is a little lighter is because the upper daily expected move is just about at the same level. So that is the lower and upper weekly expected move. And so far, SPX is trading within that range. And also the lower and upper daily expected move shown with the dash blue lines. And SPX is now trading within that range. And just below the upper daily expected move. Let me point out some spot gamma levels on this chart. These are proprietary spot gamma levels. The first is the put wall at 4,300. That's a strike with the largest net negative gamma. And they can be expected to act as support. And the next level up is the volatility trigger at 45 20 that a spot gammas gamma flip level below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative in a negative gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to subdue volatility. And then above that level like SPX is trading now, market makers position on the gamma curve is positive in a positive gamma environment, market makers have to trade against price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to subdue volatility. And then the next level up is the 45 50. And that is the call wall and the absolute gamma strike. The absolute gamma strike was is the strike with the largest absolute gamma positive and negative. And then the call wall is the strike with the largest net positive gamma. And that can be expected to act as resistance. And right now it looks like SPX is trading above that level. So those are the key daily levels and note that the volatility trigger shifted higher slightly. And the call wall shifted lower from 4600 to 4550 today. So that is a significant, significant shift lower. And that is bearish. And that plays into the bearish thesis of the post expiration consolidation. Alright, so that's a 30 day one hour chart. And then let's take a look at a at a shorter time frame here. This is SPX in a one day one minute chart. Zoom in on this just a bit. Alright, so here's today. Let me point out the levels on this chart. So this is why this is the upper daily and weekly expected move just about on top of each other. And the primary spot gamma levels in play for today. This 444548 combo l one level that did act as resistance earlier today. And now the call wall at 4550 and prices trading above that. Alright, let's take a look at book map now. So in book map, I have the same spot gamma levels on my ES chart. There is a point difference between ES and SPX. And the last time I looked it was about 29 points. So for example, the SPX 4550 absolute gamma strike call wall is actually at the ES 4579 level. And then I also have spy levels on this chart. This is the spy 454 large gamma two level that did act as resistance today. And that was a good entry point for a short entry. And then here's the spy 453 level. That's the volatility trigger. And note the spy call wall is at 455. And that level did shift lower from 460 to 455. So for the SB 500, the call wall, call walls for SPX and spy both shifted lower. And that is that is bearish. The ceiling potential ceiling for price action for the SB 500 has shifted lower. Let's just see where that scroll up just a little bit. And right here it is. It's a little bit obscured. But right here this is the this is the spy 455 call wall, this white line right here. Alright, so those are the levels on play for today, both SPX and spy levels in play for today. And the setups that I'll talk about later again, the the ETF levels were good entry points for shorts. And actually, that's the 4548 ESPX level. Alright, so that's the SP 500. I've talked about shifts and levels. One other shift for the for spy, the absolute gamma strike also shifted lower from 455 to 450. So significant shifts lower in the SMB 500 call walls for SPX and spy, and then the absolute gamma strike for spy. Alright, let's take a look at NASDAQ. And this is the NQ futures. Before I take a closer look at this chart, I'm going to take a look at QQQ, just so we can isolate the levels. So this is QQQ and a one day one minute chart showing the spot gamma levels, also the round number levels. Here's the spy, the QQQQ, I'm sorry QQQ 379 volatility trigger. And that was a good entry point for a short good for good for two points. And QQQ. And then also the 378 level here. That's not a spot gamma level, but that was a good entry point for another another two points. And we'll take a closer look at set ups in a few minutes. But just to point out these round number levels, many of them spot gamma levels have been key for price action. Good entry points for shorts or longs. You know, my thesis for the day was definitely bearish. So 378, there's another 378 to 376 trade. And now it looks like NASDAQ may be finding resistance at 378 once again. Alright, let's take a look at NQ now. So for NQ, I have the QQQ levels shown on my chart. So here's the 380 absolute gamma strike. And that did shift lower as well from 385 yesterday to 380. So that is bearish. Also for also for NDX, the absolute gamma strike also shifted lower. And that is the 15,500. I've got the wrong label on there. That should be AGS for absolute gamma strike. And then there's the 379 volatility trigger, and then the 378 and 376 levels. So the two QQQ levels, round number levels are definitely in play for today for the NASDAQ. Alright, so bull X traders ask, if you don't mind me asking what values are your SMA and EMA set at? Alright, so I'm not sure what you're talking about on book map. I don't have any moving averages there. I don't really use moving averages. When I do look at a candlestick chart, I do have a nine period EMA on the chart. And I also have VWAP. So if you're thinking about this line right here, that's VWAP. Alright, so those of the levels are in play for today. I've talked about shifts and levels. Let's take a look at one other thing. Take a look at gamma notional. So this is market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day for SPX, SPY, NDX, and QQQ. And note gamma notional is still positive for SPX, but shifted to negative for SPY and QQQ. So these numbers all shifted lower for SPX, less positive, and for SPY and QQQ now shifted to negative. So what this leads me to develop a thesis looking for a little bit higher trading range, a little bit more volatility than the previous day, with the shift to negative for SPY and QQQ, and the shift to less positive for SPX. Alright, so my thesis for the day, again looking for higher volatility and also bearish thesis on the day based on the shifts lower and the call dominated expiration dynamic as well as the call gamma unwind in many stocks. And when we, when I take a look at setups for stocks, I'll talk more about that. Alright, let's take a look at setups now. So that's my positional analysis. That was my thesis for the day. Let's start with setups and I'm going to start with the S&P 500. What this chart is showing, this is spot gamma hero, this is from spot gamma. And this chart is showing price for SPX and a combined signal of options trades and market maker hedging activity for SPX, SPY, XSP, and ES futures. So the white line is price for SPX and the purple line is the hero signal, again showing options trades for all those instruments and market maker hedging activity. And a rising line and a positive number here indicates a positive delta, positive notional value. And I'm going to, before I zoom in on this chart, I want to take a look at the individual components. And we'll do that for NASDAQ as well. There's something very interesting going on in the index products. So first of all, here's SPY and notice the downtrend in the hero signal for SPY up until about 1245. Now we'll look at ES futures. Really not a lot of clarity there. It looks like there's some, there was a large block order that came in and then the signal shifted lower again about one o'clock. Now let's take a look at SPX and this is, this is pretty unusual and it is an NDX and I posted this in Discord. Kind of a stark difference. So what this is, and let's just show puts and calls. So what this is about 1030, some large trader or traders started to buy SPX calls that shown by this just steady rising orange line. And it looks like that has finally leveled off about 145 or so. And let's see, these were, I'm showing zero DTE options. And that's shown with the green line here. These are put lines down here. So they're pretty insignificant compared to calls. The green line is showing zero DTE calls. So that's a little bit more than half of this total number here. So interesting, very steady uptrend up until about 145 of call accumulation for about, again, half zero DTE. All right, let's take a look at the total signal. Let's go back to that and we'll look at setups from this morning. So I'm going to go back to the total signal here. We'll zoom in. All right, so there were really, really two setups here. The first was that reversal at the 454 level, the spy 454. Let me zoom in a little bit more so we can see this a little bit more clearly. So that was the first short setup right there. A confirmation, traders taking negative delta positions and market makers selling futures to hedge their delta exposure. And you could have traded that with spy share, spy options, or ES futures. So that was the first setup. And then the second setup was that at that SPX level, I believe the 4548. And this was more of a divergent setup. Note that heroes started to fall, price continued to rise and then leveled off and move lower at that potential resistance level. So let's go to bookmap and take a look at those two setups. Go back to ES. One thing to keep in mind, this is the time frame that I'm generally trading. I'm trading in the morning. And then at a certain point, I have to start to prepare for my presentation. My thesis was bullish in the morning. And these were the setups for the SMB 500 that I saw. This reversal right at the spy 454 level shown here. And then the second setup, that was a confirmation setup. And the second setup was the reversal at the 4548 level. And note that sell stop orders shown by the falling yellow line, we're helping to fuel that move lower. So setups at levels that I expected to act as resistance in line with my thesis for the day. Now it looks like the SMB 500 has started to move higher as traders are buying those SPX calls, market makers sell the calls and they have to buy futures to hedge their delta exposure. So the SMB 500 is back up to the spy 454 level and trading above the 4550 call wall. All right, so that is the SMB 500. And here's NASDAQ. All right, let's take a look. And I have the setups marked, marked here on the chart. Let's take a look at Hero for NASDAQ. And we'll get to live market and see what's going on right now in a few minutes. So let's take a look at NASDAQ. So this is a combined signal for NASDAQ. And this is, this is very unusual. And so I did some investigation. We'll get to the setup in a minute. So I did some investigation. And it turns out this is NDX. And we can look further. I'm going to zoom in on this chart. You know, keep in mind, NDX is a huge, huge index. So let's take a look and see what traders are doing. So this is, I'm showing now the next expiration. That would be the zero DTE options that expire today that's shown by the green line. So that is not, not a factor that is flat. So these are options that expire at some time other than today. So we'll turn that off. Let's go to puts and calls. And we can see that someone, some trader or traders institution have been accumulating NDX calls that's shown by the steady rising orange line. And it looks like that shut off right before 130. All right. So I went to, went to think or swim just to figure out what that was. So I came down to this NDX call volume. This may be hard to see, but I can point at this. You can see this little block here is way above everything else. So this is volume at this particular strike at this particular expiration. And it shows with that little pop up. Again, that may be difficult to read. That is 18 August, the 1547, 475 strike and the volume is 5,862. So that's what that, that's showing. So we can go to go to 18 August. And the time that I looked at this, when I got back from lunch, this number was about 4700, something like that. So right now that's the volume for today and know that is in stark contrast to the open interest, which is 11. So those are positions at that current positions at that strike 11. And then the volume today for 18 August, that's not zero DTE 5,862. So that is that's interesting. So anyway, for what we're going to do for the NASDAQ, so we don't have this distortion. And I want to look at setups before this time. So I'm just going to go to go to QQQ. So a little bit choppy signal for hero for NASDAQ. And that's been pretty typical this week. The hero signal for the SMB 500 has been been more clear. And this is showing setups. Let me just go back and check the the times on book map. So the first around 945 and the next at 1015 and then 1130. So let's check those on hero. So here's the first setup at 945 and just a very slight divergence there with hero making a lower high. And as it starts to fall, price starts to fall. Let's scroll over here a little bit. So here was the second right around 1015. That was at the 378 level. And note that hero starts to fall and then price responds a few minutes later. And that was at the 378 level. So that was the second setup. More of a hero divergence just like just like the SMB 500. The first setup in the SMB 500 was more of a confirmation. And then the second setup in the SMB 500 was more of a divergence setup. The same as this one. And then the next at 1130. Next at 1130 just right around the 378 level again. Hero falls, price falls. All setups in line with my thesis, bearish thesis for the day. Alright, let's take a look at some setups for stocks. Need to speed this up a little bit. So what I want to focus on today is the call gamma unwind. So what I mean by that is traders have been buying calls and single stocks pretty substantially driving price higher. So when traders buy calls, market makers sell the calls and they have to buy stock to hedge their delta exposure. And they're buying a lot of calls that expire tomorrow or today. I'm sorry. So Friday expiration, they're buying calls that expire today. So those calls are quickly losing value as as expiration approaches. They may be out of the money if traders do not continue to buy calls if they don't keep their foot on the gas. Those calls that are on the books have are losing value. Market makers can sell their long stock edges. And that's a call gamma unwind. And note, we can tell how much of that gamma is expiring today for each of these stocks. So what I can look at here is the next gamma expiry. This is my watch list in spot gamma equity hub. And this is all today's expiration. Anything over 30% according to spot gamma is significant. So notice all these stocks I have just sorted in alphabetical order all are showing over 30% gamma expiring today. Right. So let's go take a look at some setups. Now we'll start with apple. So note apple. We'll see in bookmapper versus just short of the 195 call wall. So traders are selling calls and buying puts both the orange number and the blue number are negative negative delta negative notional value. Let's go take a look at book map. So remember 195 is the call wall and price or versus lower just below that level. And that was good for almost a three point move lower in apple so far. And apple had 29.5% gamma expiring today. Amazon 32% gamma expiring. So let's go back to hero now. You know one thing I forgot to point out on apple. Sorry about the scrolling. I don't know why it does that is this divergent setup. Notice the drop in hero right here and price follows just a minute or two later. So a good short set up in apple in Amazon. Another divergent short big drop in hero continues to make lower highs price looks like makes it a double top and then starts to move lower. Let's go take a look at book map. So there's Amazon couple of short entry points at V WAP. That's that light blue line back to hero. So for Amazon traders are selling calls shown by the falling orange line. They're also selling puts shown by the positive number for the blue line. All right. The next is meta. All right. Amazon again hit 32% gamma expiring today meta 37% and note 297 is the put wall and price moved through that level and traded lower. Now it looks like it may be up to that level again. That's the put wall and the hedge wall at 297. Traders are buying puts and selling calls. Both numbers negative. Let's go take a look at book map. Nice downtrend of the morning. Good for almost 13 points. Nice move lower in meta. Remember 297 is the put wall. Price did initially find some support there but then moved lower. Third test and it moved lower. All right. The next is Netflix. Now I don't have that in book map but I want to take a look at it in hero. So here's Netflix and hero. Netflix has 49% gamma expiring today. That's a pretty significant number and traders are buying puts and selling calls shown by the falling orange and blue lines and the negative numbers for both of those and Nvidia and here the key gamma strikes are the key daily levels for for Nvidia 452 put wall 450 key gamma strike and then the 447 hedge wall. Let's zoom in on this a little bit here just so we get to this. Just focus on the move down. So traders were selling calls and buying puts. Let's take a look at one other thing for Nvidia. We'll go back to to Equity Hub. Get some more information so we know that I'm looking at history up here. For the last three days the key gamma strike has dropped from 500 to 475 to 450. That's bearish. Call wall shifted lower from 500 to 470. Put wall remains the same at 452. Let's take a look at this composite view. So this is showing call domination above the 470 call wall level and put domination below that level. And these are lighter colors not indicating a very strong options position but again call domination. So all these calls that are out of the money are quickly losing value as expiration approaches. Nvidia has 43 percent gamma expiring today is today 721. So just a little less than half of this call gamma shown by the orange bars is expiring 43 percent. This calls for losing value. Market makers can sell their long stock edges. Let's go back to hero. Then go back to book map. Take a look at Nvidia. So remember for Nvidia the call wall is up above at 470. That did move down. 452 is the put wall. 450 is the key gamma strike. And then 447 is the hedge wall. And it looks like that was around that level. And also the liquidity at the 445 level finally acted as support. Alright so this behavior in these stocks. All these shorts this was was expected today given the large amount of gamma expiring today call domination with all of these stocks. Alright let's go back and take a look at it hero. So it looks like traders all around 1230 started maybe a 12 o'clock started to buy calls helping to lift price higher as they started to sell puts. Alright does anyone have any stocks they want me to take a look at? Otherwise we'll just take a look at that SMB500 and NASDAQ. Alright let's get to SMB500 first. And remember this line here is pretty strongly influenced by that rising line in SPX. The call buyers in SPX. So it looks like price did respond higher right around 1245 and then leveled off as traders took their foot off the gas for the positive delta positions. Price chopped around and then about two o'clock started to move lower. Let's just check SPX. So we know that this line levels off right around 140. We'll go to SPX and pretty similar chart right around 140. Traders stop buying calls. Hero line levels off. And then maybe 20 minutes later price starts to move lower. And let's just check the level and see where that happened. So we'll go back to ES. So back to the SPY 454 level large gamma 2 and then that's just below the SPX 4555 that was noted as resistance in the SPOT gamma AM founders note. And those two levels acting as resistance as options traders take their foot off the gas. Stop buying, start, stop taking positive delta positions. And price starts to move lower finding resistance at those levels. And again that 454 level was the resistance level just after the cash open. And again right around two o'clock. Let's take a look at NASDAQ. So NASDAQ the 378 level was in play again. Let's go take a look at hero for NASDAQ. First of all we'll take a look at NDX. So we know that traders stopped buying those NDX 18 August NDX calls right around 130. Let's take a look at the total signal and that may that will probably look just about the same. Still rising a little bit it looks like traders may be you know they're taking positive delta positions in QQQ again. Let's go back and take a look at NASDAQ. So it looks like order flow though has shifted bearish. Order flow in NASDAQ is usually pretty easy to read. You can see the shift in for example here green dots market buy orders aggressive buyers up to the 378 level and this time the next move up to the 15,650 that is the NQ 15,650 order flow shifts bearish. You can tell why the cumulative volume delta shifting lower that's shown by the dark blue line and then traders are continue to sell with iceberg orders that's shown by the following light blue line. So so far for the day iceberg orders cumulative value negative as well as stop orders sell stop orders. Cumulative volume delta slightly positive. So now NASDAQ may be finding support at the 377 level. Let's go back and see what options traders are doing. I'm just gonna have to look at QQQ. This is well we'll see. Alright so that's leveled off for QQQ. So we'll go back to the total signal. Maybe we can get a little bit more clarity if we look at a shorter look back period. Let's go to 30 minutes so that that helps quite a bit. So I'm instead of looking at the cumulative value for the entire day for the hero signal I'm just looking at the last 30 minutes and as one minute passes that that first minute rolls off. So kind of like changing from a longer term moving average to a shorter term 30 period moving average and this is showing that traders started taking negative delta positions and then price responded lower a few minutes later. So so far the the trend for hero for the NASDAQ is lower. Let's take a look at the SAP 500. Again remember we have a 30 minute look back period here. So just looking at the last 30 minutes of data and this is clearly showing a downtrend hero making series of lower highs continues to move lower and then price responded later. Go back and take a look at the SAP 500. So so far to me the order flow still looks bearish. Alright my time is up. I want to thank everyone for watching. If you have any final questions now's the time to post otherwise I'm gonna gonna wrap it up. So everyone again thank you for watching. Remember PMI data comes out on Monday morning and then I'll talk about the rest of the data coming out for the rest of the week next week a big week. Talk about that on Monday. Everyone have a great weekend. Thanks for watching and I will see you on Monday.