 Hi everyone, it's MJ and in this video we're going to try and do an actuarial prediction for the Formula 1 results this season. Now when it comes to actuarial models, you always want to apply actuarial judgment which means knowing when to use what model and being aware of the weaknesses of every model. So for example in financial models, actuaries are well aware that Gaussian assumptions are favored over more realistic leptochertic ones in order that the model is more tractable and what this results in or the weakness of financial models is that they do tend to underestimate risk. So when it comes to sports models which is what we want to do with regards to Formula 1, we are aware that there's lots and lots of data. I mean especially with Formula 1 there's pre-season testing, there's a million various data points that you can go into but what you want to know is that the most relevant is the past results especially when the regulations haven't really changed that much. So you want to basically base your model on last year's results and then make a bit of a qualitative adjustment or an expert opinion to just tweak a little bit of the results. Talking about tweaking, if we had to look at the past results we do want to make a few adjustments. For example you'll see these adjusted results, they have no Hülkenberg. Hülkenberg was a reserve driver who came in because some of the drivers got COVID and also I took away Russell's points because he drove for Mercedes when Hamilton had COVID and so he was scoring points for Mercedes which is an affair reflection on the Williams team where he spent most of the season. Also for 2021 we do want to have some considerations for example some drivers have changed teams, there are some new drivers and various teams have changed their engine and also racing points has now become Aston Martin and Renault has become Alpine or Alpine. With that said here is the actuarial model for the Formula 1 2021 results and as you can see we want to avoid certainty statements you know we don't want to say oh Mercedes are guaranteed to come first instead we want to say that there's a high probability that they're going to come first you know anything can happen in these seasons so there is still a low possibility that they don't come first although it's highly unlikely that they'll fall lower than second. Red Bull I mean there is always the possibility that they could win but they most likely going to come second there could be some issues with Honda or they could just be unlucky and so we could see them dip into third and we could even see McLaren sneak into that second place because remember McLaren are now getting the Mercedes engine and they've got Riccardo so there's there's some high possibilities that they might do the best of all the teams and what I call the uncertainties and this is McLaren, Aston Martin, Alpine, Ferrari and Alphatori. I think all of these teams are going to be battling each other and this is where a lot of the excitement in Formula 1 is going to be. Also a lot of awesome team rivalries between the two drivers in each of these teams so this is the exciting part to watch from McLaren all the way to Alphatori and you can see I've represented that in the model by saying you know there's no high chance that any one of these teams are going to have any certain position rather there's a medium chance that they might come across a variety with maybe a little low possibility that they might be you know a little bit high or a little bit lower. Then towards the end of the grid it is a little bit more predictable where we're expecting Alfa Romeo and to be followed by Haas and then Williams to continue you know staying at the back. However Haas through pre-season testing and if you've been looking at them they've got two brand new drivers we could see Williams overtake them or they could be saying all of this to try to lower expectations and we might see them you know take eighth place away from from Alfa. So a little bit of a battle towards the end of the grid but yeah there's essentially three fields of Formula 1 there's the top tier with Mercedes and Red Bull where McLaren might be getting in you then have the big uncertainty zone or the big mid-pack McLaren, Asimov and Alpine Ferrari Alfa Tori and then you have Alfa, Haas and Williams at the kind of like the third-rate class for Formula 1. So this is what an actuarial model would look like for a sports like Formula 1 before the season has started. What you don't want to do but we're going to do it anyway is try and be superiously accurate by making crazy predictions as in trying to rank exactly where each of these trials are going to come and that's where we're doing this for fun so and actually wouldn't put a list like this but I thought to make the video a little bit fun and to see how well we do we've created the following table and we've got yes Hamilton most likely to win then we've got Fistappen in second, Bottas in third then Perez and then you can see from fifth to fourteenth again it's this huge uncertainty zone where we don't know what's going to happen. I mean Yuki Shinoda could come fifth and Ricardo could come fourteenth. Anything might happen but we're going with Ricardo fifth, Alonso sixth, Leclac seventh, Vettel eighth, Norris ninth, Sainz tenth, Gasti eleventh, Stroll twelfth, Ocon thirteenth and Shinoda fourteenth and then I think we're going to see Raikkonen, Juvenalzi and I'm expecting Russell to beat the Haas drivers of Schumacher and Mazepin and then you're expecting Latifi to come in last and then what you really don't want to do as an actuary is make even more you know point predictions but again for the fun of this video we're going to do that so like I said no actuary would do this in in a commercial setting but because it's sports we're going to have a little bit of fun with it. So yeah the first point predictions is that you know Perez is going to win the first race and I think that could introduce a lot of drama and a lot of excitement into the season. I think Vettel will maybe get a podium maybe under some extreme conditions but it will be something that I think the fans would just love to see. Also think we're going to see Williams ending their point drought you know with them sneaking in a point and yeah and I think Russell's going to be the driver who does that. Ricardo I mean I'm not the biggest fan of him but there's no way to doubt that he is quick he is lucky and we might see him win a race for McLaren. He's really got a good package this year. Then I think Okon is going to get fired at the end of the season just because in comparison to Alonso he's not going to do that well and we might even see Gasly taking his place because he's also French and the Alpine group has got a lot of French connections. Then I don't think this is too much of a tall prediction to make but there's going to be drama for Rory either some engineer or the head of the department is going to get fired or they're going to be caught with the regulators for cheating. I don't know but there's just going to be some sort of drama happening at Ferrari this year. I think Alonso will get only two podiums where though we'll be on the podium it might be a second might be a third. I don't really think he's going to win a race but we will see but I do think he will be visiting the podium more than once. Norris I think will out qualify Riccardo so at the end of the season when you look at the qualifying tallies I think Norris on lap for lap is you know quicker however Riccardo has just got a little bit more of a wise head and will keep out of trouble and will make sure that the car crosses the finishing line so we'll out score Norris I think at the end of the day but in qualifying we'll see Norris beating Riccardo and then the last one is probably the most boring or the most predictable of them all is that Hamilton will complain over the team radio most likely about his tyres and it's just something that the world champion tends to do every single season. So yes these are my 2021 predicted results like I say the actuarial model is more the one where you build in uncertainty you have in your confidence intervals and you know you allow for a lot of wiggle room but hey if you wanted to have you know from first to to 20th this is what I think is going to happen of course the probability of this actually happening you know two T is is incredibly small but yeah those are my predictions let me know if you've got any of your own in the comment section below keep well cheers