 here's what our goal should be, right? We should stick to stuff that's worthwhile and we should quit everything else. So that should be our goal. And the question is, how do we tell what's worthwhile? And you just mentioned it. It's something positive expected value or not, meaning for every bit of effort or every dollar that I invest, am I gonna get a positive return on it? Not just on its own, but in comparison to other things that I might be doing, right? So I could have my money in an investment that's earning 1%, but there's another investment over here that's earning 5%. And if I don't switch, that's really bad, right? So we wanna be thinking about expected value relative to other opportunities that are available to us. So we can sort of set that stage. I think that we also really have a very strong intuition that when the world delivers us a message that the thing we're doing isn't working, that we will pay attention and we will walk away, right? Because here's the thing, when you decide to start something, you're doing that under conditions of uncertainty. There's a whole bunch of stuff you don't know and then luck is also gonna have an influence on the outcome. And we certainly have had all that feeling of I wish I knew then what I know now. That's that sort of, oh gosh, I had to start under conditions of uncertainty and then it was information discovery afterwards and it would have been nice to have that information in the first place, but we don't. Okay, so that's fine. Quitting allows you to react to the information. So, and we think not only does quitting allow us to react to that information, but we think we'll pay attention when we see it. And that kind of leads us to the cab drivers, which I think is a good way to set the stage to start talking about this. So Colin Cameron along with a variety of collaborators, including Richard Thaler, who's a Nobel laureate in economic sciences, we're looking at trip sheets of cab drivers from the 1980s. So this is obviously before Uber. And the way that cabs work is that the cab has a medallion. It's basically like a license from the municipality. It's quite expensive. So most people don't actually own their own medallion. Instead, they're renting the cab from somebody who does own the medallion. And the rentals work that they have to rent the cab for 12 hours. So they're paying for the use of the cab for 12 hours, but like Johnny, you can decide when you want to drive within that 12 hours, that's your choice. Now, I think that we can also agree that it seems like optimal behavior for a cab driver would be when there's lots of fares, they should be driving. And when there aren't any fares, they should just stop because why, why waste your time? And you can tell that from the trip sheets because you can see the timestamps on the trip sheets. So you can see how quickly the fares are coming in. And so that's what they wanted to see, right? These people are driving in the cab. When they're getting lots and lots of fares, are they staying in the cab and continuing to drive? And when there's very few fares and they're very far between, are they actually quitting and deciding not to drive? So that's what they looked at. And what they found is that the cab drivers actually had the opposite behavior of what would be optimal. Meaning when there were lots of fares around, they were quitting really quickly, like really early into the 12 hours that they had the cab for. And when there were very few fares around, they were just driving until forever. And this was so bad that they were earning 15% less, 15%, 15% less than they would have had they actually been doing what you can sort of tell from the outside looking in would have been optimal behavior. In fact, it was such a bad choice that if they had just been random, like, all right, I'm gonna drive six hours a day, they would have made 8% more than they actually were. Right, so that's pretty bad. So the question is what's going on because they're obviously not listening to the signals in the world. And AJU alluded to this. It turns out that what they're doing is they set an earnings goal. So I'm gonna rent the cab and my goal is to make $300 today. When they hit the earnings goal, they're done. So what does that mean? When there's lots of fares around, they get to their earnings goal really quickly and they stop. And when there aren't very many fares around, they drive around forever trying to reach the goal. And this obviously is just terrible, right? So I think that when you look at something like that where it's so clear that the incentives are there for them to have rational behavior, all the information is available to them, for them to behave in a much more rational way. And they're not, you can start seeing how bad we are at this particular decision about when do you stick to things and when do you walk away from them. And that, by the way, that research that was done on in the 80s was replicated with a huge data set of cab drivers in Singapore who were doing the exact same thing. So it's not like something particularly American even. Like it's, this is just something that humans do.