 Okay very good morning. It is Friday the 9th of August. I hope you are feeling better than I am not feeling Amazing this morning and just before you ask. I know it's a Friday. It's not a hangover not been feeling great all week a bit under the weather, so I'm going to keep my part particularly quick and I'll let Sam come on and he can talk over the markets in more detail, but As you can see to the side of me some Chinese dates are overnight, but before we get on to that Let's just have a quick review of the charts and how things reside at the moment and I was just looking at the S&P 500 and You know another really strong rally yesterday I mean this is a daily continuation chart, but I guess if I put it on a 30 minute I mean that was effectively yesterday's session Just up and up and up and kind of like what I was discussing with some of the Market speculative positions that we were looking in the future space about the fact that it's more short Outweighing long positions the most in multiple years and this is the kind of price activity I was kind of referring to is that when the market does start to ramp up then well then If everyone's overtly short and some of those trades have got a buckle and therefore the price kind of Springs up and you get these days where I think the NASDAQ was up over 2% The other indices a little bit shy of that but a really strong recovery after what was a you know a very aggressive dip that we had The beginning of the week of course, so yeah another case of Buying the dip so to speak very reminiscent of the price activity We had right at the beginning of June that actually took us back up to all-time highs So are we gonna get there again? I guess we've got a way to see certainly not gonna happen any time today But over the course of the next few days, I guess I think to the count for so good good recovery on in US equities But again underlying it you'd say are some question marks, but nonetheless a positive close the US 10 year pretty flat overall Marginally positive about four ticks similar price dollygain in gold up about four bucks still holding that 1500 level obviously that's just such a Psychological level nowadays and having broken above 1500 you can see that really that area of consolidation was the 1500 Broke above there earlier this week and that was really powerful when it did added about a good 23 4 dollars to the price activity come back down and just found some support of that those previous highs To then move back up again and then playing the range I guess looking at the price activity of what was that initial move this week We've now kind of defined this range I guess to watch for the session ahead between pivot on the downside and the R1 being also the weekly high here It's the other level to look out for so Other than that currency markets are pretty quiet dollar index is basically flat And so that's really mimicked in the major currency pairs European stock indices not really doing anything at all There is one particular product that is moving Substantially this morning, and that is the Italian BTP, which we're gonna have a look at In the next few minutes first off. Let's start with the headlines. So for China Well, one thing is overnight in Asia despite the kind of ramp up on Wall Street Asia Pacific session was a little bit more Little bit more downbeat The White House Reported yesterday that they're holding off on a decision about licenses for American companies to restart business with Huawei Technology, so right back to where we were it almost feels a couple of months ago So renewed trade tensions, of course just taking some of the steam out of the sale of the All the wind out of sale. I should say of the equity rise on Wall Street Obviously from China has been quite interesting this week. We had some export data We were talking about yesterday that exceeded expectations and was that by product of The weakening of their currency, but what we've had overnight is inflation readings So this is PPI in particular where producer prices in China fall for the first time in three years There's deflation worries have resurfaced and obviously this puts added pressure on the idea that perhaps then China needs to step in and Start to prop up the market with additional stimulus now Slowing demand not only seen at home just given domestic Rebecushion that we're having on the trade war but also from abroad with global growth and consequently demand decreasing all leading to lower Demand essentially and so therefore decreasing PPI Chinese manufacturers is reading some of the articles this morning They've been cutting prices and that's been effectively squeezing their profit margins So you can see how the domino starts to fall and then this starts to lead to more company defaults Credit spreads start widening in these Chinese firms and XYZ and the whole thing kind of can blow up quite quickly The other thing of course is don't forget about raw material prices Oil obviously has seen a pretty dramatic Repricing over the course of the last couple of weeks and then things like copper as well has been under considerable pressure So that's also playing a bit of a part as well CPI because whenever the PPI data comes out It comes alongside the CPI data and the CPI data actually rose 2.8 percent from a year earlier So this is the consumer Rather than the producer and that was actually higher than expected But predominantly based on food inflation the food inflation component accelerated at its fastest pace in basically seven years food price index So the actual CPI year-on-year in China was 2.8 percent, but the food Component was up 9.1 percent year-on-year quite quite phenomenal. So obviously chiefly led by Extreme pricing and pork and other proteins the prolonged outbreak of African swine fever and also reportedly dry weather and a lot of fruit growing regions has led to a big kind of Isolated shock to food prices and therefore hence you've got a very clear divergence here But again one that's been apparent for the last couple of months Definitely a story of underlying this trade war is Chinese economic activity from its kind of lifeblood this manufacturing is decreasing Very evident in the PPI And if that starts to feed through and make consumers unconfident well prices are going up Particularly in the food sector. So that's kind of China. That's where we are at the moment Obviously usual rules apply. I'd keep an eye out for how the China respond through the proxy of that Chinese state media journalist on Twitter He tends to have a pattern of tweeting not really at this time But more so when the US come into market because ultimately that's who they're trying to convey the message to so if you are looking at Twitter For any Chinese response, I'd say probably from around 11 a.m. Onwards is when I'd be Kind of more vigilant and then obviously Trump tweeting tends to kick off at around 11 40 This is the big story though. This is the one about Italy because yesterday Italy's ruling League Party the deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini After spending weeks and weeks saying we're gonna work this through we can work the coalition He's basically just had enough thrown in a town declared this government is unworkable. I want a snap election Not unusual in Italy if Tomasso is here. I don't know if he can recall for me how many elections Italy have had in the last several years Pretty much at least one every other year. I think pretty much summarizes it the point being is that they've had a lot of political Uncertainty and change over recent times. So seems like we're back into that situation again Couple points to be aware of though here Parliament actually in Italy is in recess So kind of like our own to some degree the month of August tends to be Holiday shut down so to speak and so all the parliamentary members go away So actually they're looking to reconvene next week to potentially carry out the next steps now How this works in Italy is that the president? Sergio Mattarella is the only person with the power so the president of Italy remember Demaio is the prime minister the deputy of Salvini the president is Mattarella And he's the only one that can dissolve Parliament as far as the Constitutionist consult concerned in Italy He's probably unwilling to do so because his goal of course is trying to appease the European bureaucrats to try and get a budget over the line which he needs to do prep work In September in order to give to them in the coming weeks Otherwise they run the risk again of being fined heavily for not You know for breaching rules on the jet debt to GDP deficit and so on so the other thing is there's never been an election I think I'm right in saying this in the month of August in the post-war era in Italy So it'd be particularly unusual. There's not a lot of people around It's not particularly a good time to call an election people on holiday and so on so Yeah Point being is if you look at the euro there's really not too much movement, but if you look at Italian assets Yields obviously have spiked aggressively this morning at the reopening of trade. So what I'm looking at here this is the BTP future and You can see we've had a substantial gap down. Let me transition my screen. So this is the BTP future You can see yesterday actually in fact well not yesterday the day before we were retesting up at this double top Right here what we had on the 25th. This was on Wednesday And then yeah, look at the move here 141 60 down to a 137 handle. You know, that's that's sizable. So You know definitely concerns are due to return Italy it's almost like Italy Flares up when we have these types of situation it Jumps up the hierarchy of the most pressing macro factors and it's not like the Italian situation has ever gone away It's just that we've been so focused on, you know, the looming deadline for Brexit the trade war and so on You know in Italy is is never really kind of resolved its issues and so we're back here again So actually I'd say updates on Italy now could well have some read across Into the general European assets that we're trading you do now need to keep an eye on this situation Going forward obviously technically you can see there's a little kind of area of support here Where the BTP has been trading throughout the month of July and we've kind of tested that first top end of that That band any break of there then certainly starts to open up potentially deeper moves to the downside so definitely worth keeping on the BTP for a Barometer of sentiment I would say dramatic break of those downside levels Acceleration and yields in Italy could well consequently then start to lead to some risk-off trade if that was the case Okay, other things Just to wrap up my part German exports slump most in three years emit trade uncertainty I must admit I'm getting a little bit tired of sounding so doom and gloom these days But unfortunately, this is the news and and German exports are in fact at their worst in three years now Exports fell an annual 8% in June imports dropped 4.4 percent Really two points. I want to stress here one is that yes This chart looks pretty dramatic this takes into account basically the financial crisis where obviously Conditions were way worse than they are at the moment But we're getting right back to that period of basically we had a one-off Anomaly in the summer of 2016 That was when German exports dramatically dropped after the UK voted to leave the EU in the referendum Obviously that very short-term created a massive amount of uncertainty because no one really knew or had even contemplated The country voting to leave so that's what that was We're kind of coming back down to that that extremity and that of the sovereign European crisis that we had in 2012 2013 When Greece Island Portugal were getting bailed out so down here the point I wanted to make was a This isn't really that surprising. We've seen German PMI the soft-looking forward indicators have been weakening consistently over the last 12 months So the fact that this is now translating into the official trade data I don't think to me comes as a surprise at all And also if you look at the month-a-month reading for the German export number was minus 0.1 percent Expectations were minus 0.1 percent. So, you know as much as and dramatic as this headline headline Sounds this is the importance of your interpretation of the news. This really isn't unexpected. This is just performing to the trend of which We would have thought and so as such DAX bureau Bund no real movements Final things to talk about. This is very brief Boris Johnson says there's bags of time left to renegotiate Brexit with the EU I think how many days it would be to October 31st, but Let's say roughly 89 something like that He's basically playing this game of brinksmanship at the moment. Is he gonna get 83 sorry, I stand corrected. Thank you Sam 83 days until Brexit is delivered by Sam Norse Boris Johnson Excuse me, but yeah, he seems to be a game of brinksmanship No one's really backing down. He's saying he's not willing to talk unless they drop the fact stop Europe saying that's not gonna happen So at this point I would say I Would anticipate we remain largely at the status quo Boris continues to say we will not call an election But if you actually read his wording, I was reading one of these articles this morning He's basically doing a little bit of central banker tactics where he's he's phrasing it in a way that if he did Then it could be well, I didn't actually say definitively that we wouldn't have an election I just said that the people don't really want another election because we had one in 2015 We had a referendum in 16. We had an election in 17 and the people don't deserve this. So What they say Bottom line politicians, it doesn't mean anything It can change very rapidly and secondly from a market point of view I really don't think the pounds gonna really get that reactive now to what Boris is saying I think we've kind of priced in the status quo Actually think it's gonna wait until that clock gets down to say 30 days 20 days Then you're gonna start seeing the the vol kind of return to sterling talking of the pound later on today We have UK GDP coming out Quite hard to see I know but actually there's a little blue Box there on the far right now. This is UK GDP quarter-on-quarter going back to 2011 So quite a large time frame and you can see here. We've had these little blips We're in Never actually going to a technical recession Because we were covered quite sharply here, but 2012 2013 But we're expecting basically flat growth today after what had been a very surprisingly strong Q1 on the back of this infantry building Story head of the March deadline. So The range I would say is what's important because the media is gonna make a massive deal about the fact that UK growth is stagnating but from a trader's point of view that really is of zero consequence What the market cares about is I think if we had a negative reading Now that flat quarter-on-quarter reading the range here is minus 0.1 percent To plus 0.3 percent now I'd say you really want to be you'll be breaking the realm of that expectation So I think if you get a minus 0.2 minus 0.3 Sure, we start to retest the lows that we that we printed yesterday If we get a high print then yes Subject to some movement to test the top end of the range around the R1 lines up quite nicely with the Wednesday high in the cable chart That'd be looking for like a point four point five reading So, yeah, just don't get too spooked by the fact that we're not growing the UK. That's not a surprise Other data points other than that we've had the German You've got the IEA monthly report. So that's for oil traders coming out nine to do be aware of that apart from the cluster of Growth data industrial manufacturing output from the UK moving further on this afternoon you get the PPI numbers But these are final from the US. So we'll be looking for too much here if you're trading loony you're in for a Volatile afternoon the currency always very responsive to the employment data and building permits and if all the all traders You've got the bake use recount later. All right, that is it from me. I wish you a good day ahead and have a fantastic weekend Thanks very much guys Hi guys. Good morning. I have a quick look over some of the charts We're just seeing a touch of dollar weakness has come into the euro which I mean really like we were saying yesterday in the Briefing and you see some of these lines are still on it's not doing much. So just a few Few attempts trying to get above the pivot this morning So we're keeping us here and I watch on on that level, but we're gonna make this chart Smaller you can see this the importance of well where we haven't actually got down to it today or yesterday But the the low that we had back on the 6th was the highs that we had back on the end of the month Previously as well. So and with a potential trend line coming in the mix there one 12 handle as well It's somewhere. I would have marked up and you know, there could be the opportunity above the pivot or it could be that You know the the short, you know And the sort of the false break of that level in an area of resistance is is a trade that you're looking at But unless we really were to get down to this trend line or up towards The higher points where we you know again being squeezed to the downside as well I wouldn't say there's necessarily the greatest trade opportunities. You can see Really this market way well may well move we were to really come to it to those points if not I don't think we'll see too much Yes, there was quite a choppy day There was a few comments that came out that made a spike higher to only come back lower pretty Instantly and it's the same with the the pound really By bringing the pound I know a couple people were short yesterday from the R1 That kind of area and you we also had a a decent break of a Trend which we did have the false break previously But we finally got the you know a clean break of that and it did make its way back down towards And almost reaching the lower part of the year To the upside as well similar to the euro in that you we were getting squeezed from from both ways And while it wasn't the cleanest trade and the volume was was low You can see we have broken out of that However, I would still have the the top end of that that trend on If we were to push higher You know following any of the data that comes out in 930 just keeping a close watch on on that point we are you know more Shorter term trending lower got an area of support from yesterday evening more of a zone I would say from yesterday as well around 121 48 and then the trend line to the upside so shorter term keeping a closer eye on that But it might well be worth waiting for 930 and of course seeing where we close the week as well Have no look over at oil and it's gonna put this on to the daily chart Remove that and I was just having a look. I'll put it actually in a weekly And I was just having a look at the the trend line that had broken from that to thousand 19 Hi, let me just Bring that on Well, she has an 18 low, I should say I don't know what I said hi there Just having a look back to see what happens around these levels if we were to retrace back and you know That would be you know fair whack away, but we know oil can get there Pretty quick shot So we're keeping a close watch on that and if we lower that time frame down into more Intra day look you can just see how well it respected in the in the sessions leading up to that break that we had Overnight on the sick That will come in around 54 above the R2 so you would need a pretty big move to get up there You'd also have to get through the low that we had overnight on the 6th as well before a big breakdown on the On the 7th in the morning But you know, certainly medium term would be looking at at that area as a pretty key point to have You know marked up on the chart and this trend line from the top would also today come in at the same point Not saying we get in there, but if we do really key to you know for a short-term price of oil What happens around that that point to the downside you've got a nice? Area yesterday of support and trend line. We just couldn't break through. I'd still have that on and You can see just on the 15 minute if I just that trend line there moving You can see just how well that was respected And it might well be come later in the session that will come into play and again works the same way as the one For the upside becomes important a break below and we can start looking at yesterday's lows or if it holds Up towards the higher points As well S&P worth having a look as we come to not just for the S&P But also all the markets we come to the end of the week and and start looking at where we're going to finish And how that could impact the coming days or weeks as well just above where we were trading yesterday You can see we have the previous all-time high back on the 1st of May What happened just after the 1st of May we had some negative trade headlines, and then it got better Are we happy are we seeing that again, but in a lot more quick fashion? You can see how we drifted lower came back in the same sort Same sort of pace happening again now one Level just to keep an eye on there that previous high just because of how well it was respected again before the breakthrough and the Retest and then once we have broken down so 29 61 and a quarter while we're 40 points away from that Obviously a day like yesterday. We get there very quickly Be keeping a close eye on that and then to the downside You know if you want your area to be aware of or where we close the week and you know Could absolutely close within these 50 points, but 29 10 Which was also, you know an important point previously and again before the further breakdown on the 5th on the Monday As well, which could act as a bit of support so 29 10 to the downside 29 61 to the upside would be the real key levels that I'd be looking at Going forward. Also if we drop it down to it's a 60 minute Put the pivots on you can see how close we are to those points or far away depending which way you want to look at it But there's a trend on that. I'd like you to have marked up Which is starting from some of the highs that we had it of this week And it was just really respected all the way through the sessions before we got that break post-cash open yesterday so be interested to see what could happen on a retest of that and While of course we're About 14 points away from with trading. I'm just seeing that the corner of my eye the Dax is printing a low for the session Obviously half hour into that open last one of the week while keeping a Watchful eye on what the Dax does but that trend line certainly something I would have up speaking of trend lines gold broke it finally yesterday I don't know if anyone was around to take advantage of this. It was just you know, so so textbook of gold and the only Guess issue was it didn't happen during European trade Just how many times we tested that trend I get the breakthrough Targeting up towards those highs and again like the S&P worth keeping an eye should we have any retracement to see what happens On a retest of that area, which would also be 1500 Which would also be yesterday's low and the high of the morning of Wednesday as well So those would be the the main points to keep an eye on of course our one matches up with the Multi-year and this year high of gold So perhaps a new little range coming in. I think you still got a favor The upside for this market all things considered but trend line to the downside s1 1500 looks a really important point And of course you could always favor the break of the levels to the upside as well for that continuation quick look over the Dax just to reiterate that point that we are just pushing to Low just the pivot has broken on the third time of asking Obviously a retest of that is it worth keeping on to the downside a couple of levels to be aware of from yesterday While we didn't really move into the back end of the session for the deck So I'd say that's likely to to happen again as we just drift into the week Closing quick Overview again of that data just to form the morning 8 30 now Really 9 30 with that UK data is going to be the main driver before we have the US numbers Into the afternoon with the Canadian employment Dataset as well. No speakers of note Obviously Trump is more than likely to be on the wires tweeting a fair bit yesterday As well any questions, please do let us know and for everyone who I imagine is very worried about Anthony I will be looking after him today making sure he gets through Okay, but I hope you will have a great great day and even better weekend The football is back Arsenal have signed very well There I say we're getting that that top four again