 Good day fellow investors. The electrical vehicle trend is strengthening. There is more and more government involvement. China is thinking about banning internal combustion engines so going totally electric. And that's logical because China has no oil so they have to shift from foreign dependence. So those are all great positives. Germany also has no oil so they are also focused on electric vehicles. So those are all positives that are shaping the trend is getting faster and we might see electric vehicles sooner than we predicted. In this video we'll discuss the trend, what's going on and we'll discuss various investments and how you can profit. Lithium, Cobalt, Copper, Graphite, Carmakers, whatever is in the industry that you can invest and see how to go about it. Let me first show you a warning chart. This is Amazon's stock price since the IPO. In March 1999 the stock price was 86 dollars. It took more than 10 years for Amazon's stock price to surpass the initial hype. So those investors that invested in 1999 in Amazon waited more than 10 years to make a profit and this is what you have to be very careful when investing in a hype trend. It can take a long long time for it to succeed and in this case Amazon really became the leader in the industry. However many many investors bailed out after 10 years of losses. So really think about how investing is different than the trend and it all bears down to the price you pay and the competition in the sector that leads to profit margins. So let's start discussing first the sector and then the individual investment opportunity. The electrical vehicle forecast sales curve is deepening up especially from 2020. That's especially in China. The UBS electrical vehicle forecast shows 30% growth in the next three years and then 46% growth later. We can expect the environment to increase 25 fold in the next 13 years. That's huge. That's a huge market and then that will have huge repercussions on a lot of things even on oil. So when you see the chart 25 fold increase I think every growth investor's heart starts pumping harder. Let's see the investment. Lithium prices have really spiked lately. However as everybody seeing what's going to happen everybody is also investing in the new lithium projects. There are currently 16 operating lithium mines in the world and from 2019 onwards the number of is expected to quickly double. A recent research from the U.S. Geological Survey showed that the reserves that current lithium miners have at current productions are enough for 400 years of lithium usage. Yes 400 years of lithium usage. So even if the trend is there even if they meant for lithium will be huge there is plenty of it. So don't bet on making a lot of money by investing in lithium. Speculating investing in trends in hypes short term yes but be careful of investing in the long term because then you really have to pick the lowest cost miner so you're not investing in lithium you're investing in individual miners and that's a completely different story. So be careful with lithium. Now what about electrical vehicle manufacturers? There it's all about competition and margins. These are Tesla's net losses year by year. You can see that in the last 10 years Tesla never made a profit. So great business some would say. Nevertheless the stock price is keeping it alive the potential yes yes yes blah blah blah. The problem is that every car manufacturer is coming out with electrical vehicles. The competition will be huge everybody will fight for market share and when everybody fights for market share margins get squeezed. This is what happened to Tesla in the last 10 years. This is what will happen to everybody else so the complete auto industry will heavily invest in the electrical trend to get market share. However I'm really really wary about investing in it because I think profits could be zero for a very very long time. So again be very careful there. Even if Tesla hits the expected production and hits the expected sale the company is already highly highly overvalued because at 50 billion in market capitalization they have to make five billion in profit to have a price earnings ratio of 10 which is something normal and then to keep it sustainable over at least 10 15 20 years. So yes it's exciting but don't count on profit so try again to trade those if you are invested in. Be careful with long-term investment. It can be the same issue as it was with 3d printing a few years ago or with amazon a long time ago. Here is the 3d printing investment scenario hype hype hype and then you see the result. So let's see what are other electrical vehicle investments what are the options. Of course what do you need to make a car what do you need to make a battery. Graphite will explode nickel demand will hugely increase aluminum which is lighter than steel will be used to increase range copper will also increase lithium as we already said cobalt is there to explode and manganese also. Let's check the graphite market the graphite even if demand is expected to explode graphite prices are at multi-year lows. This is because a you can make graphite synthetically b there is a lot of graphite in the world and c a new company is expected to bring 25 percent of graphite supply on the market at very low costs. CIRA resources has the Balama project in Mozambique and is expected to cover 30 percent of global graphite production so if you want to invest in graphite you have to really check this company out see again individual mining investment not really a trend to invest in graphite so focus on individual companies not on graphite producers because graphite prices can be very low for a very long time we already discussed the nickel market so you can find the link in the description below so alongside nickel one of my favorite markets to invest in is the copper market copper prices have been really cheap a year ago now they have increased almost 50 percent however i think there is still plenty of room in the long term so the balance price of copper i think it's much higher and this is because from 2020-2019 a big supply gap is opening. Data from Wood McKenzie shows that copper prices need to be at least at four dollars per pound to cover the increased copper needs and as time goes on prices will skyrocket even higher we can see copper at six dollars per pound in order to cover the 2025 onwards supply gap however the fundamentals of the copper industry are very very positive looking at the copper cost curve you can see that producers are already above three dollars per share and that's cash cost plus sustaining capex not even adding the depth the cost the mine development and all those costs that add to copper mining so at this level it's still not unprofitable for everybody therefore you can expect a spike somewhere the way to invest in copper is of course copper miners if you find those with low costs at the lowest quartile production and huge production expected growth then you can really have a low risk because it's already profitable investment that has lots of upside in the long term and won't won't go bankrupt a lot of lithium cobalt miners graphite miners car producers will go bankrupt in the next five years and then you lose everything and you miss out of the trend so it's very important to think about limiting your risk and then leave the upside to the upside if you're already investing a good investment with a good return you can enjoy that and when the upside happens then you make real profits cobalt prices have also spiked up in the last year also everybody expects a deficit in cobalt as production increases however you have to be very careful there this is the rare element chart from a few years so everybody was expected the booming rare elements you can see here what happened the market boomed when the hype cooled down when there was more production the prices got very very low and if you still want to invest in cobalt again it's a fact of individual miners and here you have a list of individual miners where to look many of those will go bankrupt so be careful out there so to conclude how to invest in a trend that we know that's strengthening if you find an investment that's already profitable now that whatever happens will continue to be profitable then you have a low risk investment and that's first one you have to think how not to lose money and if there is upside if there is a spike in copper prices great then you expose yourself to higher upside however if it's a low cost producer it will be remain profitable at whatever prices and that's what important you protect your capital from permanent capital losses a company that we discussed here norilsk nickel russian companies so geopolitical risks but however it represents a company that has low risk in production in production costs and huge upside if nickel copper prices palladium platinum prices increase keep watching the channel we'll discuss plenty more investments we'll discuss car companies we'll discuss copper miners we'll discuss nickel miners everywhere where we can find low risk high return investments i'll see you in the next video