 Hey guys, it's MJ the student act tree and in this video. We're going to be speaking about politics and I'm going to show you how actuarial science can help you win the political campaign in America Now statistics plays a key role in democracy After all it is the candidate with the most votes that becomes president and the statistic used is called the mode But where statistics can be used to analyze results like we see here Actuarial science can be used to influence the results But before we go into that very quickly, I want to I want to introduce you guys to American politics Basically, you have two main parties the Democrats who are liberals and the Republicans who are conservatives generally generally And I'm just going to be reading up a little bit from Wikipedia on what these two different ideologies are so for the Democrats Modern American liberalism is the dominant version of liberalism in the United States It combines liberal ideas of civil liberty and equality with support for social justice and a mixed economy The modern liberal philosophy strongly endorses government spending on programs such as education health care and welfare or more simply tax the rich to feed the poor and In the case of the Republicans Historically the central themes in American Conservatism have included respect for American traditions Supportful Republicanism and the rule of Judeo-Christian values anti-communism advocacy of American Exceptionalism and a defense of Western civilization from perceived threats posed by moral relativism Multiculturalism and post-modern ridicule of traditional culture Liberty is a core value with a particular emphasis on strengthening the free market and the opposition to higher taxes and government or labor union encroachment on the entrepreneur Or more simply don't tax the rich that heavily and hopefully this encourages them to do more business Which then results in the poor being employed Okay, and now how does the system work? Well each party will select a candidate and then on voting day you choose either the Republicans or the Democrats and I'm an expert on American politics because I have watched Kevin Spacey in the Netflix original series House of Cards But now where does actuarial science come into the game? Well, I'm going to show you very quickly Already political commentators have used diagrams like this to understand the political environment so what we have here is a scale from left liberalism to right conservatism and The more extreme your view means the less tolerant you are of the opposing view So now also plotted on this graph is the population percentage on how people identify themselves with the two ideologies and What this curve is showing is that most people are moderate and they are just a few at the extremes And I know they they try to call this curve the normal But it doesn't really look that normal. Let me just show you sorry a little bit OCD when it comes to these distributions this is what the normal curve looks like and There's problems with this curve because let's use more frequency problems lead than it should be and the reason being is that it's very easy to work with mathematically You know calculations are quite easy to do with it And it does look reasonable But using the assumption of normal distributions in finance was one of the key causes of the financial crisis So it's very dangerous to just assume that things are distributed normally, but to start our discussion We're gonna hold on to it I just made my own diagram with a more accurate looking normal distribution. So Let's bring in our candidates. So the Democrats are gonna be slightly To the left so they're gonna be in the middle But just slightly to the left and the Republicans are gonna be slightly to the right and then you have Donald Trump who is to the far right and Now the reason why these guys are crowding in the middle Is for this reason Okay, you want to be close to the center so that you can capture more votes because remember only one Candidate goes from each party Which means everyone to the right of that candidate or right of the Republican candidate will vote for him and everyone to the left of the Democrat candidate will vote for her and the deciding fact will be you know Who do the people in between the candidates vote for now sometimes they split sometimes it gets a little bit swayed But you want to position yourself as close as you can to the center and so much so while I was doing my research for this There were some things that were saying that Obama was actually Position slightly right on the spectrum and that might have been the reason why you know one of the contributing factors for him winning So if this is the case, I mean what is Donald Trump doing so far to the right? well, remember we were talking about The problems with using the normal distribution or turns out in politics It's also the wrong distribution to use. I know it's shocking. It's shocking that they could do this But what what is the right distribution to use? Well for 2016 we don't know yet what it's going to be but I was finding this some research on the internet and it's been plotting the curve Throughout time and we can see that from this distribution, you know back in the day like 12 years ago It was kind of normal, but slowly There's been a split of the curves and they've become more polarized So this means people are becoming more extreme in the ideologies Okay, and maybe this trend is going to continue up into 2016 So we might be dealing with the population distribution like this Now these are two skewed fat-tail distributions one skewed to the left for the Democrats and one skewed to the right for the Republicans and This makes things very interesting because let's look at the Republicans Okay, with a polar distribution it means that there are far more extreme conservatives than previously thought and Donald Trump has got an uncontested claim on these voters and what's worse it means all the other candidates are fighting for a much smaller slice than previously thought and This is what Donald Trump is leading the polls the Republicans have too many other candidates fighting in the middle and So when it comes to who's gonna be the candidate the Republicans have to nominate Trump as their as their chosen one because also he has Strategically threatened to run as an independent if not chosen and this can be disaster for the Republican Party Because it means that the right would be split and it would be a very easy win for the Democrats So I'm really am Expecting Donald Trump to be the candidate for the Republicans and He's either been very lucky that it just happened by chance that the population shares his views or he has been very Intelligent he's seen the change in the population distributions and positioned himself to take the gap Now with all this uncertainty in the Republican Party, it has led the bookies to back the Democrats But yeah, that's right You can bet on politicians and you can make money from it if you're smart and if you're over the age of 18 so also it's not going to be looking good for the Republicans as it means if Donald Trump is elected the mortal voters are Gonna maybe sway towards the Democrat candidate So this is what I'm guessing I'm guessing that Trump Trump is gonna win the the Republican Candid candidate thing and then he's gonna change his tune When it comes to the general election, he's gonna move more to the middle, you know and possibly Drop his you know extreme ideas of building a massive wall around America This is what I think is gonna happen but all comes down to these future distributions and Actuarial science has some impressive mathematical tools to construct these distributions with just a little bit of information and this can be used to aid Donald Trump in how he should position himself on the political spectrum after he becomes the Republican candidate and I do think Trump will be the next President if we see distributions like this So ideal conditions would be a skewed to the right distribution for the conservators and a close to symmetrical distribution for the liberals So just to to recap how to become president well first you want to get as much information as you can You know you can do these online surveys send them out to people pay people to do them get your information Then what you want to do is use those graduating techniques that you learned in subject CT for You know model construction and all that and you're gonna build your distribution Then you want to plot your opponents and see what areas that they have covered in their campaign Next you're gonna want to pick your spot develop your campaign around those ideas, you know find the gap and Then yeah, finally you just need to make America great again So that's how easy it is to become president in America South African politics the country we are from and it's another story altogether It's it's not very smart to make comments on politics. So I just like to make art around the topic But just speaking of South Africa Why don't you guys join the Facebook group that I've made for the South African students? In it. We just discuss the various videos. We throw up news and various stuff in the insurance and actuarial industry Also, it's a great place for you to message me. I should get notifications. I don't get that notifications for YouTube So just tell me what videos you want to see and all that type of stuff So even if you're not South African, please feel free to join the Facebook group I am gonna put a link in the description below Otherwise, don't forget to subscribe. I will be posting more tutorials and more fun videos like these Thanks guys for watching and enjoy the rest of your day. Cheers