 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hello, my pleasure to be here. We're looking at the E-mini. The 10-minute chart made a peak E and a nice spiral to the upside and then pull back very sharply, but it's still up 28. It's nice to hear 28 points up over the last week. It hasn't been much of the upside. But day is young and we need to get this. This is kind of if it wasn't ideal situation right now. The ideal situation that I would be looking at is exactly what we're seeing at this very moment. But it's happening in the first 30-35 minutes of the session. That means all of the negativity needs to get out of the way over my show, over the next 45 minutes, 50 minutes or so. And by 11.30, there needs to be a very fresh look at the upside. That's the way I'm looking at it. Let's get on with the show. The show says that that's not the time to call me. Sorry about that. Overseas call it and often get those. Sorry about that. Can't take it. Yeah, so the TYX. I wanted to show you this. This is the 30-year T1 interest rate monthly. There was a high made. Of course, the price changes as a continuous contract. So the price back in December of 2013 was 39.76, 3.976. The high today is 38.06. It's a leg E in the monthly chart with a target of that high that was made in 2013. It can go higher. There's a question about that. Of course, it can go high. It can go right into the 5.5 area. But at this particular point, we're looking at the monthly chart in leg E. This is yields. The weekly chart in G slash C with very good technicals, the stochastics at 92%. Remember, this is the opposite of, say, 7% as we saw just now in the stochastic of some of the indices. Excuse me. But what we are looking at here is that it's a leg D in the daily chart. MACD is strong. Stochastics at 86%. 9 period moving average way over the 14. The price way over both the 9 and the 14 at 3.804. Now, let me put this into context. So I want you to show you this chart. I want to do this quickly to get it out of the way. I don't want to overload my charts here. This is a leg, as I say, G slash C in the weekly chart. This is the cyan one is the 5 year. The brown is the 10 year. And the white, let me see if I can click on white to show you where it is. White is way down. In other words, it's been a complete overtaking of the 3 by the 10 and the 5. And that's saying that we've got a breakout here in the cup and handle pattern. Is this a G or is it the only other wave count I can give it as an A? A brand new A. That says yields in the weekly chart could still go to B, higher B, and then the highest C, and then a peak D. I don't know. I'm keeping it right now as a G and we'll see what happens. The effect has been with the global timber and forestry ETF of the rise in interest rates, the rise in many other things, plus the slow down economically around the world. You've got this going more than a one to one to the downside from the 200 period exponential moving average as the wood is the ETF for the global timber and forestry ETF. And look, the Philadelphia housing index has come almost all the way back in the arch formation, the dreaded H. That's 331.20. That was back in June 18, the week of the 18th, the week of the 17th, 321.20, 331.20, and it gets smoothed. Yeah, 331.20. And the low so far today, middle of the week, is 347.50. So it's still nicely above, but it's making the arch formation. So you can see that if you're looking at these charts alone, it's telling you, years are impacting the market number one. Number two, the global slow down is measured very well here. 98.98 was the high back in somewhere on April of this year. And we're trading now at a 64.71. That's a 30 point difference, 30%, right? Around about there. And look at the Philadelphia housing index, 538.36. And I think that was back in April of last year. I think it was last year, last year in 2021. May the week of the 14th, 538.36. And here we are in the 340s, 331 was the recent one. So there's just no question that the selling has been intense. And what I'm talking about, close workspace, when I'm talking about a rebound, I'm talking about, first we call it a balance, because that's all we can do. So far it's not even technically a balance. But let's just go back to the Dow INDU. It's given back a chunk, it's up 153. It was up at 29659, it's now 29413. But this is exactly where, this is kind of what I would, if we didn't get that reshape turned around yesterday, remember there was a second scenario that said, there's still some weakness. But then there will be, someone asked me about my, when I talk about the, an earthquake and then the residual effect, the aftershock. Well, how does that fit in? And what I've been saying is that, I don't believe we're talking about a crash phase at this particular point. What I think we're talking about is just a relentless lower highs and lower lows selling pervades. And that's the reason why for subscribers to the opening call. We are still assured from via the DOG, from 33,300 in the Dow, but absolutely we're trying to do some buying here to see if there is enough of a reflex rally. And the reflex rally is 30128, that's the pink nine-period moving average resistance. And 30518 and all that does is it gets back to this time last week, actually not even this time last week. Today is Tuesday. So that's Tuesday, Monday, Friday, Thursday, not even to Wednesday. We aren't even close yet to Thursday, the candle, the Roman candle from Thursday. So this is just an attempt to, in a small way, take, having a big cash position but trying to get a maximized, some kind of a bounce as we did in April. But I don't think that this can be a rally, anything close to what we saw in April. This is more like a rebound from a very oversold level. And unless we get the QQQ, the NDX100, trading at 277 right now to close, I can give it until tomorrow, but it has to hold 274 today. But if it's able at 277.15 to summer have another burst of strength a little later on and make a new recovery high today, that august well at least for some rebound this week. So what are we looking at? So here's the other thing we were looking at, VX, VIX.X, the volatility index, and I'll get to many of the questions that we had. You remember I've been talking about this, I spoke about it on Friday, about it yesterday. You look at the declining chapwave inside fact, repellent zone. I'll talk about it when we return because that can be the clue to say, well, watch this closely. If you get repelled, the VIX gets repelled. That'll help the market. That's what it needs. I'll be back in a moment. Tows up 165 S&P 29. We'll be right back. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve. Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC Capital Market Assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive transaction. Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC. Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at tfnn.com TFNN Educating Investors Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day 20-bet guarantee. If you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com Educating Investors Tfnn has launched the Tiger's Den Hosted at Discord, Tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den is available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com Toll Free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-873-7618 I was a shopper and yeah we're opening we're looking at now up 175 S&P up 31. If you look at the e-mini let's just go there right now this is starting a leg B this right here should be the first real attempt at some kind of follow through having had a big balance a pretty decent pullback and now we're going to see is there going to be some kind of an arch formation right here like this I'm going to stretch it out a little and make it too narrow like that and that using Chapman methodology let's just say at about 10 what are we doing now we're at 10.19am in the morning somewhere around 10 I would put it at 10.43 to 10.52 there's a balance that tries to tackle the 37.11 200 period exponential moving average in the e-mini it's a 36.98 right now it's not good enough it actually has to close there and then sometime by 11.30 to noon time today it has to get to the 37.23 area and then start to treat the whole area of 37.10s as a springboard to the upside a break under this is uh oh still not quite ready for prime time let's go back to the VIX index so the high that was made back in January at 38.94 in the weekly chart of the VIX then the high that was made round about February the 26th or so of this year at 37.79 then the high that was made at 35.64 round about May May the 3rd or so I always ask the question how does the price that you're following know about the diagonal lines I can understand a horizontal line yeah something hits 200 or hits 150 it's down to 110 you say oh well the old high was 150 it should go back but how do you make up something that says 37 36 35 32.88 yesterday look at that beautiful inside track diagonal uh look at this the two parallel lines narrow channel and you've got this inside track and it cannot close above the pink resistance line and it's certainly can't close and hold above the blue line how does the price know to do this to hit exactly over a year I it's just my theory is that if you think of it as a tide that the tide is going down and every bit of exuberance that's an exuberance in the volatility index and negativity that is increases but it can only increase to a certain second elastic band it can only or so whether you start off with is going to go that distance and then stall well if that's the case this is a really important moment it's an important moment for the dollar if you're looking at the vix index having made a big be a peak D today. So this is the exact moment that I was looking at to say if there is a chance for a rally, that rally starts either Monday with a V-shaped recovery so that the latter part of the session starts to see 152 or more rally, not a pullback that's what we had, but a rally that will give you that V-shaped turnaround or it has to be this aftershock that says it isn't an immediate aftershock it's this kind of messy aftershock that sort of stumbles around and just it's not one impact it's just a bunch of impacts and that's what I think we're looking at so the chances are, unless I'm wrong, that we've made a low not the low but a low and not a J-low but an A-low. Yesterday probably on Friday at the low there but yesterday some of the indices went to a low low and that by the end of the day going into Wednesday going into Thursday is going to be the real test of strength so I've taken a little time to talk about it in terms of chap and wave methodology in terms of subscribers how we've what we've done why we're still holding a very big cash position excuse me and why I would rather be aggressive with less money then spread it out and get too many positions and that's the position we've got right now. Alright questions came in, could I look at oil, USO? Excuse me, let me just have another tea, doesn't go away does it? So oh and thank you very much Gator this is really a good information I missed it by a fraction I used to get these things I missed it yes you're absolutely correct I'm calling this a leg after the downside right now the IWM daily chart so now let's go back to Russia. This is the USO. The USO is the United States Oil Fund LP. It's gone to a leg each of the downside this is another reason why I think there's a chance to rally at this particular point because if you look at the commodities oil is a commodity it is broken the most important sideways horizontal support level is trading at six the USO is trading at 64 it's underneath the 68 level if you look at crude oil itself this is a continuous contract where did I type that I'll type it back over here as broken underneath remember I said the 83 level if it ever gets under 83 and holes under 83 that is a negative so crude oil under all the conditions that we're looking at now where you've got a heating crisis coming up in Europe it's just all around the world in fact we are looking at crude oil breaking down you're looking at my DBA DBA agricultural fund breaking down that is wheat just look at this does wheat made a peak G at the 200 period moving average is pulling back a little bit look at soybeans made a peak eat pulling back some look at corn holding quite nicely but still pulling back from the G C at the top there look at soy be a soy I always say soybeans but it's not it's sugar I just got to keep liquefying my throat sugar number 11 continuous contract holding okay but underneath the 200 period moving average so if I'm looking at the commodities at the most soft and hard commodities there is a really oh let's look at natural gas natural gas look at this natural gas down on the 200 period moving average of 6.92 this is essentially saying to me yeah this is essentially saying to me within the context of any kind of rally it behooves the market to see something come off the commodities to allow some kind of a rally in the market we'll be back in a moment let's look at our chart see if we got there very close if you want to take advantage of this sector now is a time to subscribe to my gold report the gold report is a comprehensive look at the metals sector as well as the markets that move gold which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to lose every Monday morning I published a gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the XAU HUI JDX as well as more than 30 different mining equities to see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report sign up now by visiting TFNN dot com don't miss out on the next great gold trade sign up today TFNN is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts in collaboration with Tom O'Brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David White has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardleaf ABC's butterflies and much more the art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charted software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN dot com sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN dot com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN dot com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN dot com. Now going to the NG natural gas didn't realize that the throat would still be quite so scratchy 6.894. This is the arch formation in the daily chart now I have said that there's no other way I can count the weekly chart other than a peak B in that last move up now this almost reminds me of the S&P which made a peak B in the monthly only want to do it in the monthly all the rest did anything from a D up to a G which is exactly what you look for in a monthly chart to start pulling back well this big G as sorry this big G right here back in June then the pullback in the V shape recovery going to a slightly higher high over 10 now it's at 6.89 I can't call it anything else but a B that could fail it fails if natural gas doesn't have to close it just has to pop under if it slides under 5.355 in the continuous contract that was the low of the week the eighth of July that negates it that says it's a B minus to failure pet very unusual but it can happen but it says I'm gonna take some water oh this is terrible okay there are what it is saying is that within the context of this rally it is still natural gas it is a peak D if this don't you hide this month I don't know I can do by it by Friday you're going above 10 again but it is in play natural gas the winter is coming it should be rallying so we're gonna be watching this closely I don't we don't have a trade we didn't have a trade in natural gas stock itself or is a stock that also has natural gas we're out of that I'm quite prepared to get back in but I haven't done that yet we'll be watching this closely as well as the multinationals why let's go to MRO which is marathon oil look at that pullback from 33-24 back the week of June the third oh yeah yeah going from a peak C and pulling back monthly charge marathon oil independent exploration and energy refining company peak e-top and what I said is these should still be in play I personally wouldn't be putting money into it right now any of these because I want to see a higher highs and higher lows because something's happening here and probably has to do with natural gas and it has to do at this moment with oil so they are pulling back and that goes with the XL E you remember did on Friday I did the XL E and so look at this it's right on the chapter wait inside track support level in the weekly chart if it starts to trade in the 68 or lower area it says even the XL E the S&P select energy spider fund is having trouble in this dreaded H pattern so let's keep that in mind so that was cut some questions came in about oil could I just be looking at a sector very specifically that was MRO which we just did yes another question so first of all I must say GT thank you for all those choices hit me over the weekend one all those headlines around the country very interesting and very broad more significantly is that there are cultural changes that are going on that we won't know until October November December whether or not these are I wouldn't say one offs but I would say that they are less effective then one would think or whether that's very important we won't know but yes there are some things going on that are very important and we'll talk about that later but the question came in could I look where was it Goldman Sachs oh this is terrible I apologize for this it sounded I was okay last night but evidently the voice is still very very scratching now within the context of a Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs I considered that when the next big phase of the move to the upside look at this chart of Goldman Sachs look at this monthly chart peak E Goldman Sachs trading today at 295 up a dollar it's at a smash over the last a week from the 330 level down to 295 I'd say that this there's a really good chance in the next big move to the upside whenever it occurs that'll be the time that Goldman Sachs probably has pretty much got all its eggs together and it becomes a trading company once again like it was remember when it made all those fantastic moves way back let me show you this Goldman Sachs right I once did a webinar on Goldman Sachs from the 1920s when there became an IPO that became a public company so this move going to the high of 2007 at 250.07 October of 2007 and then a little bit of a plunge down to 4741 March of 2000 and now actually this was 2008 and that was November of 2008 and then it went to 275 in 2018 March and then pulled back to December to 151 ran up to peak D went to 130.85 in March of 2020 and ran to the most recent high of you know November of this past year 426.16 and here it is at 296 UGG can't get away from that scratchiness that little irritation that dryness so we'll see what happens because if at any point in 2022 it starts to trade at 278 that would be a very very negative thing but if in the meantime it has a decent rally that rally has to go all the way to 360 I don't see I don't see yet what's going to take into 360 so the question was when do we look at the brokers when do we look at at the IAA what when do we look at Schwab when do we look at Goldman Sachs and my answer is they're all doing different things the IAI has pulled back but it looks a little bit better than Goldman Sachs Charles Schwab Charles Schwab also has not such a bad chart pattern but this at 7215 right now it needs to hold 65 anytime in September October if it starts to trade under 65 look at this chart Chapman weighs 40x formation hasn't be able to break above it if it's able to get to 76 it's a 72 right now then then it could test the double top the 77 41 so all of the says keep cash speak for about two seconds and cough for three seconds child so keep cash because it's really important in this time frame to have a kitty to be able to say I'm ready for when I finally see that that's the person talking that low that says to me now I can put a lot more money to work I can start slowly and then just keep adding because the market should make higher highs at this particular point you're looking for balance I believe the best way to trade it is to put this money to you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating in the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology his weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks as well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week you can get the technology insider at tfnn.com for only $37.50 sign up for David's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer try it risk-free today with our 30 day money back guarantee tfnn educating investors biotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade lab you or labd directions daily S&P biotech three times bull and bear ETFs visit Direction Investments.com biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ Basel Chapman we're back the S&P is up the E-minus up 34 and 3,007 or it did hit that Georgia been moving average I hate to say it but I'm gonna say it if the market keeps acting like this with all these kind of skeptical pullbacks and skeptical rallies but making new recovery highs all day that to me is the perfect situation for at least a rebound that can have the the the the bears reluctantly start to cover and they're gonna wait and they're gonna wait and the bulls are not going to come in right away you can see how scary it is I mean it was scary oh very scary yesterday was scary every every other day this past week so the ideal situation is to break above a what level and I would say 3742 ish somewhere around there on the E-mini if it's able to get to that level I think at least in the very near term you will have some people start to say hey hey hey maybe we're so oversold that we can rally that's kind of what I'm looking at that's the reason why for subscribers of opening call I said over the weekend when I did my 50-minute video overview I said you know we don't have to put much money to work we're just gonna step in we'll step into the singles of the ETFs on Monday if possible and if it works we'll add double or triples but we'll still keep our cash a big cash position and just try to go on as we've done before a percentage a really nice percentage gain and just take it off and we can keep doing that and one of the reasons why I feel strongly that this this phase of the bear bear market I think we're getting closer and closer to the area where suddenly the word recession starts to be discussed a lot more as if we're in a recession I know what the reason is for them not calling this a recession because technically they've always done that after two quarters of negative earnings I just don't understand what's going on here or just negative projections all together you can see every one of these things because they are semiconductors trying to rally to their 291 and 193.04 are not it look this is a terrible little pattern right at the bottom here but the day is young if we can close into that bar in the semis it says great finally the semis are showing a little bit of strength so this is all very selective and what I'm saying is the monthly charts are suggesting very strongly that we aren't quite done on the downside I say quite meaning in time in price what happens next is going to be so important the higher you can go Jimmy says election year basil messaging redefine anything that doesn't fit the script yeah but that's politics I mean that's been around long enough to see that most importantly what I am looking for is how does gold react so the semiconductors is one thing that's part of the general market but gold you see the whole influence of the dollar in terms of the overall currencies all the different currencies is suggesting that the dollar is still the place to be international we also know look at this chart from eighty nine point twenty one back in I yeah yeah back in uh twenty twenty one from eighty nine to the hundred fourteen hundred I mean this is incredible you know currencies don't just change on the dime look at this EUR USD look at the euro dollar look at this just trying to get off the load today look at that monthly chart it looks like a swan dive right oh now why do they call it a swan dive I've never seen a swan dive like that anyway but look at the USD JPY and this has been the clue to me to say there's a chance of the dollars just getting a little bit toppy here and therefore we've got to watch this counter trend things that's what I assume before if we've got to watch the TLT we've got to watch the dollar we've got to watch the Japanese yen currency pay with the US dollar Japanese yen why because it has this inside rectangle formation with the long-legged doji can not quite a doji but a long-legged candle it gives you very clear parameters and unlike the dollar it hasn't made a new recovery high just a little bit off at 144.67 the high was just under 146 it was 145.94 sessions ago but you see the long-legged doji in the week and that's just saying to me just keep an eye on a shorter term because if the dollar which is secret still make a leg deep but I think it's getting a little bit toppy here all the technicals are fantastic only the on-balance volume and you'll only see that if you go to the UUP look the on-balance volume is extremely overboard but the stochastic said 95% that's fantastic so I'm saying don't get carried away I'm only treating this as a potential balance that could become a little bit more it could be actually become a rally a counter-trade rally in the market but let's just go step by step because stepping in front of a train especially when you're in the tunnel and there's a light coming that isn't the light at the end of the tunnel that is the train coming so you've got to be very very nimble very careful so I'm saying that we're going to be watching this because you remember silver was acting so much better than gold today it's acting very nicely it's up 20 cents at 18.75 but look at this made a peak c1 c2 double top in the daily weekly charts making lower lows and lower highs the monthly chart has got this one-to-one to the downside which is already extended so even though the chart pattern is a little bit better price-wise and I looked at cde which is Kerr mining ink looked great made a peak d the other day at about in the 340s plummets down to the 260s and here it is at 291 not a bad session today so we're watching this some stocks that we will be watching closely so if you're for subscribers to my opening call and what I would love to do is once again just look at the maybe either go to the to the to the lead stock in a sector or go to a stock that follows like cde it has a little bit of a chart pattern like silver not quite as good as silver in terms of patterns themselves but I just try to find a very low price stock that can move in a nice percentage without putting too much money to work that's really to be the most important thing so uh question is again t calls got that got that got that did the tlt did that did that yeah so yeah another question came in um where was it is catapult is catapult is still on your list of the cyclicals yeah is catapult is still on the list of cyclicals you would look at if it was a big market turn around no not at this point it's there for a balance but catapult is too deep a cyclical i'm looking for a counter trend balance now and in fact we will know today at the end of the day whether or not this is a balance that's impacting stocks in the Dow itself that are economically sensitive your home depot is up 5.78 to 272 but that's not a leg d trough d this is not a great looking chart so what i'm saying is that even if there was a best of intentions in this market that to move up very sharply there are so many stocks that are very very important that are acting so weekly like the xlf what's with that look at this xlf almost a full dreaded age pattern in the weekly chart going from the week of the 15th of july at 30.37 running to 36 very nice almost a 20 percent move and then giving almost all of it back it's at 30.74 right now so the the question has has been for me what rally would it take for you to switch from being a bear to stop coughing and become a bull and i have to say it's a whole series of things that again has to have to happen but most importantly it'll be this major thing where at some point you will get the volatility index yeah let's look at that so you see this way see the you see this trend line you see the way the volatility index out today is down $1.33 look at that 30.93 with a potential pd right here when i see the volatility i don't know the price because each one's so different look back in march of 2020 at that really major low the the vixen went to 85.44 that's coronavirus business the Fed everything was again against the market i don't know if we've had so many tests of this trend line that we've used up a lot of the downside energy meaning the upside energy in the vix index but if i see the big start to go into the 43.44 area that's where i'll be looking at all these different sectors very very closely because that's where we might get a rally that actually lost maybe six to eight weeks and that'll be really important how it comes about i don't know but this is different this is just uh with the wear and tear of the downside is run its course and now you're going to get a countertrend rally if it works and it will see so let's just go back to the e-mini we want to look at over here so this is now either a this is e slash b f slash c i'm going to call it a c for now because they're holding so nicely and it's walking above the 200-period moving average just walking above also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up subscribe to the fibonacci 247 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com what i was saying is that this is the one-minute chart f slash c we've got right over here but it's it's doing what we were discussing before very quiet moving a little bit higher the pullbacks are modest uh we'll see what happens will there be another sudden uh pullbacks of the down net which is up 275 is actually only up 120 points that's that'll be a big difference that'll say to me uh you're you're early and any rally now has to it has to be you need some fundamentals and i don't hear any fundamentals that are actually helping so uh within that within that context let's just do this as we're about to wrap up today and of course everyone in Florida we really we're praying for you we're hoping that everything just works out the best it possibly can tfnn might have to close shop today we'll see it's up to them uh we'll we'll certainly be on standby we'll be ready to go tomorrow but in the meantime safe safety for everyone in Florida and especially for tfnn let's see what happens if the Dow is able to get to the 29 690s today at the the close that'll be really important and a follow-through day tomorrow and with that i'm listening to okay so we've just got a moment to go and the volatility index which is now 31.07 if instead of going up into the 31 50s or higher starts to pull back and actually gets to 29 65 or 29 45 as the market is moving higher that'll say great finally we can have a decent up close and a potential follow-through tomorrow we'll see what happens i'm watching this chaplain with inside track in the vixx index uh weekly chart and i want to see it pull back sharply as it has done almost every other time the best music what i can say is i'm sorry for the throat action today i thought it was going to be good this morning but we'll be fine but we'll see what happens have a wonderful rest of the day hope to see you tomorrow hope everyone's safe down in Florida any one of with the storm coming up