 Welcome to Tickmail Weekly Market Outlook for a week commencing the 26th of October with me, Patrick Mundley. In the US, there was a sense last week with the dollar selling off across the board that traders had already concluded that Joe Biden would win the election on November the 3rd, and we're already positioning for the expected dollar decline into 2021. Pulse do still give Biden a commanding lead but in the week ahead the Trump team will be hoping that what should be a huge 35% quarter-on-quarter annualised bands back in the third quarter 2020 GDP on Friday should remind voters of the White House's growth credentials. The week should also see US consumer confidence, which is likely to still be strong, and durable goods orders. In short, the data will not be supporting double-dip fears just yet. Away from the US, the dollar decline has also been driven by positive news out of Asia, and the extension of the dollar decline, whether China wants a stronger reminbi as it seeks to meet its agri-buying commitments under the phase 1 US trade deal remains to be seen. It's a good story. However, there will be much interest in China's 14-5-year plan. Leaders meet on October 26-29, which could prompt more flows into Chinese asset markets from a technical perspective of the dollar index, still holding below the descending trend-channel resistance area. I thought we might get a move higher last week, but selling early in the week saw the dollar decline for much of the week. But we have a pivot in place here now at 92.44. If we can hold this, there is still a last gasp attempt here for the dollar to make an equality objective up to this potential C level at the 95.40-95.60 area. However, if we take out the pivot at 92.44, then look for a quick test of the prior lows at 91.76 on route to a test of the psychological 90 level and a potential fifth wave low in place. In the euro zone, the euro has weathered the European and October PMI releases relatively well, which is probably a testament to the conviction levels held over the structural dollar decline. The euro faces further challenges this week in the form of Thursday's ECB meeting, and further confidence releases, including the German EFO on Monday and Friday's 3rd quarter GDP and CPI figures. With regard to the ECB, expect a strongly dovage message from President Lagarde and plenty of hints about more QE in December. Incidentally, ECB research has recently concluded that 10% increase in the size of the ECB's balance sheet relative to the Fed could knock about 3.5% off the euro dollar. 3rd quarter 2020 eurozone GDP data should show a strong bounce back, a 9.5% quarter-recovery after the 2nd quarter's 11.8% decline. But with lockdowns in Europe broadening by the day, it looks increasingly as though the eurozone won't be able to show similar growth in the fourth quarter. The technical perspective of the euro dollar, we have key pivot here now at 116.89 whilst we hold there, look for a test initially of 1903. If sellers don't emerge here, then we're likely on route to test the ascending trend channel resistance up towards 122. However, if we do hold 119, there is still the potential that the euro dollar itself could see another leg of corrective downside, holding that 119 to set up a test of the 115. So the 119 area is going to be pivotal this week. If we fail there, we get some bearish reversals, then we could see a shorting opportunity to trade down to 115. But through 119, on a closing basis, look for 121, 122 as the next upside objective. In the UK, as the restart of UK EU trade negotiations is fully in the price and little progress is likely this week, negotiations probably continue now until mid-November, suggest the relatively stable sterling price action from the point of view of sterling domestic drivers. As has been the case during the past weeks, sterling dollar price action should be primarily determined by the swings in the euro given that the sterling should in the absence of Brexit news remain fairly stable. Markets continue to see the sterling reaction to the outcome of the UK EU trade negotiations as asymmetric, skewed to larger losses should the trade negotiations fail versus limited gains should the light trade deal be agreed. This is because market estimates suggest no risk premium is currently built into the pound based on short-term financial fair value models. It will be a very quiet week on the data front, but the UK data has been playing second fiddle to the EU trade negotiations in terms of sterling price action. Once we continue to hold the 132 as resistance, still see a potential for a test of projected sending trend channel support down towards 127.30 for the next level of upside looking for a test of 136 on route to 138.80 in Japan. New Japanese Prime Minister Suga makes his first major address to Parliament on Monday. It's not clear what he will have to say about any fresh growth initiatives, so instead Leeds suggests he will focus on carbon neutrality by 2050. This week also sees the BOJ meeting on Thursday. No change is expected in the BOJ's policy. With the BOJ, like many concerned that the recovery will be very weak and pledging to keep financial conditions very aggressive. Obviously we have dolly yen below 105, Japan's Ministry of Finance could be concerned over yen strength. However, with major trading partners in China and Korea allowing their currencies to strengthen, Japanese officials may be a little more tolerant of yen strength. Also the non-correlated yen remains a good way to hedge any narrowing in US opinion polls threatening a contested election result in the US. From a technical perspective, as the dolly yen holds this 104.34 level and the ascending trend line support here, I'm actually looking for a move back through 105.30, 105.50, the pivots to get a test of descending trend line resistance and the equality objective at 106.49. However, if we do fail at 104.30, then I've been looking for a move down to test 103.50 as the next downside objective. In Australia, the Aussie dollar has recovered towards the end of the week, but the idiosyncratic downside risks to the currency remain rather significant. 10 days away from the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, markets are retaining a very bearish stance which may put a further ceiling on Aussie dollar gains. Most of the downside risk, however, appears to be somewhat related to China. The sign of Australian relations have neither improved nor deteriorated and the risk of another protectionist move by Beijing may keep appetite for the Aussie somewhat limited. Next week, Chinese leaders will meet to set out their five-year plan, which is set to be focused on improving self-sufficiency. I will get more details on the plan to shift to carbon free by 2060. There's quite a lot of stake for Australian exports, coal once again at the centre and the Aussie may face some pressure on the back of this and the data calendar. The key releases next week are the inflation report for the third quarter. Consensus is centred around a 0.7% year over year, but barring any major surprises, doubt that's really going to impact the Aussie. The RVA appears mostly focused on jobs numbers for now, and it does not look likely that November decision will be heavily influenced by the next week's CPI. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar, whilst holding below the 72.47% pivot, have a downside objective at 68.65%, Watch for this potential retest here of the descending trend line resistance at 71.80%. Any bearish reversal patterns in there will be an opportunity to add short positions looking for that test of 68.65%. The only way that that downside target will be negated is with a close back through 72.47%, which would open a retest of cycle highs to 74.10%. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 26th of October. Be sure to join me on Thursday at 1pm UK time for weekly live market analysis. It's always traders, plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manager risk. Have a great week. Thanks very much.