 Great pleasure to be here again. Thanks very much for HPR, Polska and Ikan to bring me again You really are Glutton's for punishment to ask me to come again. I really appreciate it It's always a great pleasure to be here. I was in Krakow last week at a conference So I actually saw another part of Poland, which was nice I've been doing quite a bit of research on what's happening in Poland and countries around Poland It's really quite interesting. What's happening is that all of the concepts that we're dealing with in You know in Central Europe or Western Europe in America, you know They really seem to be picking up very very quickly here. So it's really quite interesting to see this. So first I'm obviously I'm on Twitter. I'm big on Twitter Who here is on Twitter who is Twitter ring or who is using Twitter and it's okay. You can admit it It's there's no penalty Okay, well We'll talk about that in a second, but I'm g Leonhard on Twitter This presentation will be made available for downloading through Twitter this afternoon So if you're not on Twitter yet now, you have a reason you follow g Leonhard to get my PDFs And of course also through the organization later, and I'm sure we'll also have a video So first of all, I always do this because people are confused about what a futurist does Some people think of futurists like Ray Kurzweil or Paul Sappho or Alvin Toffler who are you know real futurists Talking about 20 years from now. Most of my work is about the immediate future, which I call today I would call myself a presentist if I could but that term is taken. So it's basically about four sides It's not about predictions. Okay, you will not hear predictions except for the really obvious ones I That I will share with you today, but it's all about four sides And I think four sides is part of all of our work now Because the speed the sheer speed of society Technology changes politics. I mean imagine there's not a single politician Probably in the world We'll try to run for office without the use of Facebook or Twitter or YouTube even in Switzerland while Which is conservative country, you know, we're not the first to do things Every politician is using social media as a way of communicating every company is now going online even Swiss air One of the biggest brands in Switzerland has finally gotten around to selling stuff to Facebook So these are some of my clients in the future stage to my company our motto is it wasn't raining when Noah built the Ark in other words We have to do something before the bad stuff happens and that's what we try to do with our clients I have a hashtag if you are on Twitter, you know what a hashtag is you can use this on Twitter to write Hashtag ask good you can ask questions while I'm speaking if you are distracted with their mobile phone As most people like to do you can ask me while I'm speaking and I will be distracted by your tweet If the internet works here So you're welcome to use that Okay, here's some topics I want to talk about today I used the logo from the conference because I really find it very interesting to think about smarter commerce In a larger and a global story and here are some of my topics. I want to cover today As you can see will be here in midnight if I go through all of these things But I will try to maybe jump a few times You know if it's time is getting too tight if you have any particular Things you would like to talk about more than others than please tweet or just say something in in real life It's also okay so Technology is leaping, right? This is the iPhone 10 You know, it's very large Let me just pull this over here somewhere getting excited about the iPhones I need to take my jacket up, but even more exciting. I think it's the iPhone 20, which is even larger But suffice to say despite of the iPhone's your technology is absolutely mind-boggling, right? Last week I climbed Mount Everest. No, just joking But you can go a Mount Everest and you can make a YouTube video and send it from Mount Everest You could be a company in Vietnam and make software for people in Brazil to use through the Internet You can be a designer in Greenland and work for company in New York You could be in a telepresence Conference call with 14 people using Cisco HP or so telepresence and feel like you're actually in the room And you can stick a piece of paper into the screen comes out in Hong Kong Mean technology is mind-boggling and it's real and real challenge for humans, right? Because the noise is increasing and of course the amount of things that we could be doing is increasing and competition is increasing choice So technology like this, you know it forces us like this cartoon says, you know You look just like your Facebook profile, you know, she's a cat, of course It's easy to look like a cat when you are a cat, right? But It's time to go beyond the obvious so in your business today the question is Is not only what is your customer telling you that they want? But also what are they not telling you that you think they're going to want after what they told you I? Said last year in the conference that if Henry Ford the inventor of Ford automobiles had asked people what they wanted They would have said faster horses Right if you're in a telecom business today, what are people are going to tell you when you asked them They're going to say I wanted to be cheaper and faster. Oh Big surprise But what is beyond the obvious? What do they really want? What is something that they don't know that they want that's our job to figure out if we're going to be smarter than them So to speak or ahead of the curve right so going beyond the obvious is crucial And I think what's happening now is because in this phase of digital technology. We're jumping from the water glass Which was the internet for the privileged for the rich for those that had the money for those that were geeks You know we're jumping into the internet where it's basically a much larger fishbowl Very cheap devices in India a tablet cost you $30 The alakash tablet is $30 for the Android a good tablet of course not Apple but Very soon you can buy a really good smartphone for $10 or you can already do that, but it's it's a knockoff, you know other brands So cheaper and that fishbowl also means that it's a global thing now very soon We'll have five billion people connected to the internet Every single business in Poland that deals with software and services will have competition from as far away as an island in Bali and vice versa So think about what that means that big fish jumping is What the founder and the lead investor and what they found about the lead investor in Facebook called? Solomo, I hope this is not new to you But it's becoming a very boring phrase in fact everybody's talking about like data is the new oil You know I said that already like five years ago, but social local mobile is where everything is going The future of retail the future of money the future of travel the future of health Education is all going in this direction So this is actually really a huge leap and if we're looking in this direction We can see that the internet is now being centered on those companies except for Nokia here as it says The internet is now being centered on those companies that do this The internet is contracting around those companies that are based on social local mobile And all the other companies that were sort of behind the wall like business to business You know chemical companies banks insurances. They've been dragged very quickly over the wall So many of my clients are now big international companies like Rodea and others That have very little connection the consumer space But all the people that are working there and that are working other companies and their partners are Experiencing the same thing as consumers and drag that into the company for example the the idea of bring your own device right employees Bring their own device to work It's called Boyd right bring your own device And this creates a huge amount of conflict for many companies Facebook is not allowed I'm sure you have some of those companies here You can't get on Facebook on your company's internet because you're wasting your time. That's the theory Guess what people do now they have the iPad. They just use that the whole time. They don't need your company network Completely sidestepping what's happening there and of course the cloud Because IBM the speaker before me Is a leader in this right? I mean clearly the cloud is taken over everything our music our films our Television program our health records our education our books are moving into the cloud I mean think about what that means when you are a technology company But also what that means for cultural things the music industry is essentially bankrupt as a consequence Well the cloud the illegal cloud and the legal cloud both right they make in seventy four percent less than they did ten years ago And it's not reversible anybody here in the newspaper business anyone Lucky you then because that's next Value reduction of 90% You're going to sell an ad for a hundred thousand euros in the biggest Polish newspaper Maybe maybe I think it's about 50,000 euros here 150,000 for the New York Times if you take that in newspaper to the internet how much you're going to get 5,000 right one-tenth So you have to you have to reinvent that business and the cloud is a huge opportunity here and of course Also the good thing as Siri, you know the iPhone tool says us What do you look like the cloud in the cloud? No one cares what you look like that's that's a benefit I think so social media Not for kids Actually the kids have already moved on to other cool things Maybe the new my space that's coming up But the main growth in social media is business to business actually business to business social media 87% of top 1,000 companies in the world are engaged in social media in one way or the other and about 50% of the CEOs are blogging and writing about what they do So I would call this The social OS the social operating system Not social media. I think we should in fact forget about the word social media Because it leads us to believe there's some sort of magic secret, you know We can make a Facebook page and sell quicker You know or you built a better mousetrap like I like we talked about in November, right? This is Facebook users in Poland this graph 25% roughly of Polish people are on Facebook and 42% or what is it what's the number there 42% roughly of all of the internet users So you can say what you want about Facebook stock performance, right? But Facebook is a highway Ignoring Facebook will be just like ignoring ignoring Google I mean there's a business model that's waiting to be formed on Facebook of selling direct Airlines are already on Facebook selling tickets directly on Facebook So clearly a shift towards the social ass here are the leading Facebook pages in Poland and congratulations to play Which was one of my clients now that has anything to do with that But play an orange and you know plus and a Lego are the top companies and the first one I don't even know you probably do But they have the most popular Facebook page I mean, it's interesting to see what's happening here. This is my good friend Charlie Rose who's a brilliant moderator and A great guy not a personal friend just a spiritual good friend, right? He's interviewing Mark Anderson who I'm sure you know Anderson the founder of Netscape Lead investor in Facebook and board member of Facebook and see what he says about the social local mobile evolution of smart phones the convergence of social networks the convergence of online video like these are the things these things are happening right now marketers most companies most agencies are not yet Are not yet taking advantage of our not yet all over the kids The next three years will see more transformation than we've seen the last ten years and I think that's nowhere more true Than in Poland and companies like and a country's like Poland Because there's so many things happening at the same time next three years will be absolutely mind-boggling so What we have here is a revolution and technology innovation and habit changes Now when you go to the bar in the evening guys used to talk about cars or women or women talked about guys Maybe I suppose I don't know but know what that what they do now is they're checking out which app do you have? You're talking to each other about what apps you have on your smart phones I mean this is a complete habit change and also a commercial evolution a Polish guy I think found this company Odesk and I think they're now based in California, but this was a Polish company Odesk Okay, Odesk is a way of finding engineers That has taken the world by storm. It's like an eBay for engineers and technical talent Millions of people are hired through Odesk remotely to do jobs for companies This has absolutely exploded air B&B anybody know air B&B If you're traveling anywhere, this is the alternative to hotels now It's people renting out their castles houses apartments and small hotels directly to the web and This place has exploded that in Paris every single street in Paris in the central Places in Paris has an apartment available on air B&B every single street So that business model is only possible because of social of course you have a rating there It's a question of trust right we have a commerce revolution there So the question I have for you is you are you and it's your company ready for a really a network business What Eriksson calls a network society? Cars will be connected to the internet my scale If I want to lose weight I can compete with others and publish my weight I mean I'm not doing that, but I do want to lose weight, but I don't connect the scale And of course people right I mean mind-boggling what we're seeing with a network society And really the trend is that it used to be one too many like MTV Now it's also many too many MTV is still pretty big I think in Poland But in many countries MTV has lost out completely to YouTube I mean just ask your kids and why is that because YouTube they make the program It's many too many there is no guy in New York who runs the program for YouTube like it is an MTV Or a bunch of guys One too many many too many so Airbnb compared to Hilton right they have zero cost They're renting out other people's places And of course, you know, it's not a question of either or Hilton will not go bankrupt because of Airbnb It's a parallel process But basically we're seeing our entire society moving into this direction of becoming networked and this does not mean Network in the sense of equal That part of that meaning is that right but to be connected and interconnected with other companies Look at all the successful business models in the last decade in Some way or the other they're all borrowing from this idea of a networked society Not just tech companies Corrental companies airlines So in this system, we really have this trend towards network brands connected brands Connected to their users connected to partners and connected to competitors Which is of course a hard part Here's a great video from a Polish newspaper. I think it's called the Gazeta V Boca, so if I don't know about this, but They actually are showing what's happening in that shift in this really interesting sort of cartoon commercial So what's the message here said we don't care how you read our newspaper? Whether it's on the computer or on devices because what we do goes beyond how you get it The value isn't the fact that you have curation you have different embodiments You have different ways of looking at this I mean, it's a great example of how to become a network organization, but let's be aware that network business Is not business as usual. I mean the disruption here is Quite strong and the longer we wait. I think the stronger the disruption is disruption is I mean look what's happening to newspapers This is us Newspaper advertising revenues if you're in that business, you're worried And this will happen here in Poland as well right now. It's still not like this But the question is not if but when and look at these numbers Global study of digital news surpasses newspaper and radio more people are consuming news on Digital devices and there are on radio or printed news. I look at the graph. That's a red line at the bottom Today 60% of CEOs are using social media to talk about what they do in the future will be 57% in a few years It's a projection CEOs talking not about their company secrets, but about the business The new iPhone allows you to use a thing called passbook Which is the bridge between the digital world and the real world so you can get a coupon from Starbucks You can log into when you go into a store to receive communication directly from the store using different kinds of technologies Including of course Wi-Fi and GPS, but also others. I think also using magnetic fields and so on Look at the explosion and telecom services how people will be connecting Target using coupons already is a widespread as part of the iPhone in the US doctors going online Sharing their information sharing that the patient's data with other doctors and even remotely operating through it through a data channel. I Mean the idea of network business Walmart for example has embraced the idea of Scanning bars in the store and comparing with other stores and products while you're shopping Complete overlap of physical and digital We'll talk about that later. And of course here's the play page on on Facebook, but Network business is not business as usual. What is the difference? All the difference is you're connected with others All right, so it's more of a conversation Rather than a monologue It's more of an interaction before the transaction which I also talked about last year And this is kind of painful because many of us are saying you know what I don't want to talk to all those people about what they Think about my company or me. They should just buy my ticket or just buy the software or whatever I but now it's all part of this interactive environment to where people are expecting you to have conversation now Here's the chief of Tesco. I found this two nights ago when I was looking for examples Tesco, of course, one of the biggest Grocery chains in the world starting in the UK Having complete mobile access to all of the ordering and tracking where the food is and stuff and that CEO of Tesco Philip Clark. He says the choice we face is a stark one a tough one Do we lead the revolution or do we become victims of the evolution? And this is a guy who runs. I don't know how many employees have like a hundred thousand employees or something huge He's basically saying that apps applications on phones are the new high street. I wouldn't quite go that far But clearly he's showing that you know people what people do in shopping is now dramatically changing I mean all the stuff he says in this article, which was on retail week last week But he says in the new world retail will not be about buying large swathes of new real estate But about how we relate to our customers That answers the question that Magdalena was mentioning when she introduced me about what is first, right? Clearly It's first the interaction and then the transaction We want to skip that, you know, it's quicker if we skip get right to it, right? But that's unlikely and I think this guy is realizing what's happening here and the final word he says, right? He says I don't want us to be part of the future. I want us to help to shape the future And Tesco, I think also has operations in in Poland as well But clearly is expanding with this idea across the world. So let's capture this for a second. This is a lot of impetus of course easy for them to say they're a huge company with lots of revenues but Lead the revolution or be the victim of evolution I happen to be every single day, you know through my clients and directly through us I mean, if you want to listen to a smart guy talk, you can just go to ted.com, right? There's what? I don't know 50,000 videos of smart talks. Do you need me for that? So every day there's a challenge of evolution, you know something that we have to talk about and this is I think in many ways What we're going to see in the next three years money being sucked out of the system because We're not a connected company. We're not we're sort of disconnected from what people are doing So kind of shocking to me that many of you are not on twitter I'm not going to ask who's on facebook because most people don't lift the hand for this But in many countries asking whether somebody's on facebook is like asking if you're going to go to the bathroom later Of course, it's like saying I don't use google, you know, whatever the reason would be But if you're trying to do business with the clients of tomorrow Which are social local and mobile and connected, but you're not doing it yourself How can you possibly expect to know what they may want? That would be like saying the pope is going to make a law About things that he's never looked at or done Which we of course we have that challenge, right? It's a disparity of position So that's something that we have to look at I do actually do this ourselves And this is of course great news in poland that we do have huge growth in the it sector I mean this article shows growth from 24 percent in 2012 And this graph here a little bit hard to see I shows that poland is actually doing very well in this regard So I would encourage you to go a little bit further and actually do what the customers are doing Ericsson has some pretty mind-boggling research Saying that 85 of the world's population will be covered by high-speed mobile broadband in 2017 Here in poland, of course in many cases, it's at least something to be desired, right? It's it's coming But it's it's definitely not all here yet a mobile internet services Broadband is still needs to grow a lot but has gone already a lot But the numbers here pretty mind-boggling at 85 percent of the population will have 3g 50 percent of the world's population have 4g And smartphones subscriptions to be over 3 billion Now Cisco is projecting that 80 percent of the entire internet traffic Will be on mobile devices In five years 80 percent Complete switch from the desktop To the mobile environment so if your company doesn't have a mobile website if you're not mobile optimized at all that stuff I mean we discussed last year right that should be tomorrow's work Clearly that's where all of the things are happening. So we have this challenge Where we have the old order, you know the way that things used to be And then we have the new order which is starting in parallel. We sort of have to try to do both And this is quite hard We have to continue to do the old business for example, if you're a book publisher You're still going to sell books and print But amazon already sells more books in the kindle electronically than they sell in print, right? So what are you going to do? You're going to stop printing? Can't really stop printing so you have to do both at the same time right this real challenge In it's in the way sort of schizophrenic. You have to be somewhat dualistic to do both This is quite a challenge I think especially for larger companies But I work a lot with people in the print space and this is clearly the innovation space if you're If you're dealing with this kind of challenge is the overlap between paper and print and digital And I think that goes for a lot of companies that the innovation is actually somewhere in the middle For example, now you can go to a bookstore and you can use apple passbook and very soon also of course from android and other Oasis including Nokia. I think a way of looking at the books and pulling up information about the book while you're looking at it And also of course compare prices which you can already do with shopkick But you can be send a coupon while you're there from the publisher that knows that you're looking for that book So you have a choice to buy digital or in print or both So you can be in the store. Look at the book get a coupon that gives you 30 off the book and at the same time Get a download of the kindle book for free Right because completely mashed between digital and physical Now that is promising to me And the reason it's promising not is because it makes life easier for us. It does not right? We have to there's a lot of organization involved Because it's totally addicted to the customer as Jeffrey. I think from IBM was saying earlier It's all about that You're going to delight the customer then you win And this is what the assistance will do this conversion. I work a lot in Brazil And there's a leading newspaper called folha And folha has an interesting ad campaign They run this ad everywhere and they're saying, you know what we don't care how you consume our newspaper It could be print it could be the ipad the iphone even the blackberry or even a nokia phone Doesn't matter. I mean a dumb phone not a nokia phone, but just a low tech phone Print is just another screen Well say that to a publisher now they're going to faint Because print for them is The money is the imprint The money is not a digital the money is moving to digital, but it's not quite here So there's a challenge of overlap, but that's where we're going, right? So the the the keyword here is It's taken from the IBM curiosity shop and flicker, which I found Googling around is that the keyword is to be interconnected Interconnected with others. I mean there's this plumbing of the city shows You know city doesn't operate with one company running all the pipes right interacts with lots and lots of moving parts And unfortunately, I think that in the past we've had lots of industries that were ego systems, you know Microsoft Not to say that that's a bad thing. It's just that basically they dominated it Today we have system businesses that are ecosystem that are interconnected There's a lot more collaboration going on which I'll talk about in a second Take banks for example Ever since a financial crisis, you don't want to say that you work at a bank Or that you're an investment advisor I'm sure there's some banks in this room What's happening right now is that every single bank wants to be social Connected with their customers in these social networks right and and through linked in and others They want to create an appearance of conversation And the same goes for banks that are looking for example to add value like a property guide So this bank for example is is offering an app that has nothing to do with banking. It's a free property guide Hospitals are connecting and in the u.s. Price Waterhouse Coopers has said that over what's the number 57% of people ask They choose a hospital based on what they do in social media What other people are saying about the hospital? This is of course americans, you know americans are very quick with this It's not quite the same in europe yet hospitals don't tweet in europe or don't have facebook pages to a large degree That's just now coming banking with friends like in germany the feed or bank Boring from from strangers on the internet and shell using a system called yammer Which is like an internal twitter to talk to each other about stuff that happens on the daily basis 90% of all b2b marketers This is us uk are engaged in some form of social media outreach Social media is simply crm And crm is social media So simple as that It becomes part of a conversation that you have with your client your providers your vendors and so on and right now Linked in seems like the preferred platform follow these conversations to happen But I think that will probably go a little bit broader in the future Let's talk about money for a second a minor topic That's quite clear that we probably won't be having cash in 10 years in many countries It's also quite clear that we probably won't be having credit cards. I mean think about that for a second The code of your account and the permission is embedded in that card that you carry around with you There's absolutely no reason why that couldn't be anywhere else like on your mobile phone Except for of course privacy and other reasons and habits But clearly what's happening here, right the future of money. This is a great report right and the bottom line is this is uk 65 degree that by 2020 most people have embraced and fully adopted The use of a smart device swiping for purchases they make Well, that's already true in finland. I can buy a coke can I can buy my ticket, you know, that's already true in many countries But that's a huge opportunity right here And I think that of course the telcos are looking at this and saying, you know, we should be looking at stuff like This app of things called square where you can pay with your credit card using an iphone plug and like a piece of plastic that swipes it The mobile money revolution is absolutely huge in africa for example It's most of the transactions are done through the mobile And as this article says that you can't wait on the mobile payment strategy So whatever you're doing if you're selling stuff Payment has to be done sooner or later through mobile devices Not just credit cards or PayPal And whoever the telecom provider is that does this or or PayPal or whatever, right? This is of course a crucial thing that we need for that to really work and for people to trust it So this is africa service called mpesa In nigeria and tansania I think as well Most of the payments that people make to each other for work of small transactions I handle direct on the dumb phone through sms It's a huge cultural shift. Just give it five years. I think in most countries we'll be using a mobile phone in this way Biggest obstacle of course is that I don't want to necessarily always be tracked with what I'm paying What I'm paying for So that that is something that we have to solve this problem But clearly, you know the the outlook there goes in an direction that internet companies will mostly do that for us Internet companies technology companies and credit card companies, but mostly internet companies So if your bank or financial institution If 34 percent of financial transactions will be handled by internet companies Using the web as a backbone over the top Where does your money go from the credit cards transactions and from the banking? I mean, that's that's a huge challenge right there and that's Somewhat easy money at this time location Again, if you haven't tried this You need to download four square or use facebook and then go to a big city. I think it actually works in barshow And log into when you're in the mall log into Facebook or four square and tell them where you are And you will get offers from participating retailers I already purchased like 10 gap jeans for free. You know gap is a jeans brand in america, right? So the way you do this is you you like gap on facebook You go to the store you you tell facebook that you're in the mall And then the gap realizes that you're there and they can send you a promotion to pick up a pair of jeans for five dollars or for free I mean the jeans only cost them 60 cents or whatever. So it's not a big loss for them but What happens here is that they breed lots of loyalty, right? They make me think they're my friend And next time I want to buy a jeans. I I don't get a coupon. I still go to the gap All right, that's how it works Location-based services are a goldmine for retailing Of course, you know for all kinds of services if you're looking at what's happening With store detail Stuff or trip advisor all these kind of things Asia of course is the leader in this Finding like-minded people I mean this works for dating this works for people who are at a conference Now there's apps when you're in a football game. You can find your friends in the crowd So you can meet up later those kind of applications coupons we talked about that earlier location stuff like this and the best is suri Have you tried suri on the iphone or speaking to your phone? I'm sure you have tried it Asked suri. I'm going to jump off a bridge and die It will actually tell you where the nearest bridge is Which is extremely useful I mean, you know, I didn't jump off as you can see the bridge was 26 miles away. So anyway, uh mobile first Eric Schmidt the CEO of google said this years ago and we didn't really believe it because you know it was clumsy And but now it's really all about mobile and here in poland Yes here in poland is going to happen even quicker once we have the infrastructure on place Which I think many telcos are currently working on and the biggest drivers of growth in content Is mobile devices smartphones tablets and of course, you know improving broadband is right number two So if you're in a telco business here, some of you Clearly that is a requirement for that to happen that it actually works google has a great series of slideshows on multi-screen and multi mobile first I think the the one is called the new multi-screen world. You can download it from just google for it It's like 80 slides that you have to read. It's free, of course They're talking about this, you know, basically the majority of our interactions are screen based Now this is becoming a reality Smartphones are where people starting for their com commerce activities And in some case you could say well, it's not quite that case here yet But I think it's coming very quickly. This is of course u.s. Uh, nothing actually global numbers, man but there is a An interesting trend happening is that we are starting to use whatever the nearest of the best screen is So when we're in the taxi, we use the iphone at home We use the iphone to command the television or any other smartphone for that matter, right? We read the news on paper But then if we're on the airplane, we read it on a on a tablet where we have saved it Right, we switched back and forth Whatever screen is available and this is I think becoming a very big trend because it influences how we buy All right, if you're not ready for multi-screen buying you're making a huge problem Multi-screen means whatever the user is using at that moment whether it's a wristwatch That's connected to the internet or a smartphone or the television There's a technology called chazam that you may have heard about Chazam basically does audio fingerprinting and what they do in america and this is I think is already a global thing as well You can use chazam to listen to the tv show that you're watching And chazam will identify the tv show based on the audio fingerprint And it will show you on your tablet or your smartphone the actors the rating What people are saying about the show the products used in the tv show Synchronized live stream as you're watching what other people are saying and what your friends are thinking about the show if you want that too Called the second screen Imagine what this does for buying there's an ebay app That you can download I think currently only works in america ebay will monitor what you're watching on tv And it will show you the products in the tv show to buy on ebay in real time while you're watching This is one of one of the biggest innovations i mean i would i could care less because you know i want to See tv i don't want to buy anything but but a lot of people do care about that so What is the estimated time of arrival of the eti in poland for this I don't know you have to tell me i could not find out last night just googling, you know Google doesn't have the answer for everything, but i think it's sooner than we think Much sooner than we think We have explosions and disruptive technologies like augmented reality Google glass all sound science like science fiction But it's around the corner And having the mobile phone be like our external brain I mean think about this for a second You're having an argument with your wife About what the capital of x y z is of they collapse down Where you're going to go to find the answer while you're talking then she pulls up wikipedia and the question is answered, right? That has become our external brain Mobile phones have become our external brain our external shopping bag Our external Fins directory That's actually kind of scary when you think about it And that's going to get much much more elaborate, right? Here's an example from samsung Now here's something to worry about Integrated camera on the tv right, so This television. This is not just samsung. This television a you can speak to Which is going to be a standard in the next few years You can control with gestures so you can sit like this and you can pull data out like a minority report like this It can translate languages But the worst part of course or the best part depends who we're talking to Is that it can see your face and see if you're happy or not All right, and it'll change the ads as a consequence Actually intel and samsung are coming up with the plan Where they recognize your face not the person that's not legal But whether you're male or female and how old you are and changes the ad in the tv show to be synchronized with who you are But that's a little bit science fiction. Let's stick with the first two gestures and speaking to devices I mean the stuff that siri does today on the iphone and google and so on that that's kind of basic Right, but the future clearly will have that interface change of talking to devices You know asking you device what the best deal is for an airline ticket That is clearly not very not very far away. I tried this out in the google labs myself Language recognition and translation you can speak in german it comes out in chinese on the other side in real time That's about three years away for commercial applications Imagine what that will do to customer support All right, you can actually speak in polish and to anyone in the world It will come out maybe not in finnish, which would be hard right, but many many other languages Computing right moving to a place to where you can have this is a device called the leap Where you can control the computer with the hands in front of the computer? This works for anything a tablet or a laptop and even a mobile device where you can draw You can do all that stuff that we know from science fiction movies That will change commerce of course forever if we're looking at what's actually happened there the cultural ships, of course They're not all positive and i'll make you think a little bit with this short clip here Okay, so This guy has a Contact lens That is receiving internet data. This is not far fetched. It actually works quite nicely already This is the next step from google glass, right? So there will be lots of social things that we will find very very strange the next few years I mean already of course having a smartphone and constantly looking at it is already anti-social really So you can talk to people better through the mobile phone then when they're sitting right next to you in many cases So there'll be quite a few challenges in this direction. I think that we have to master in the next few years But let's look at some of the examples of what happens in smart business The huffington post which has taken over aol one of the biggest internet companies in the world Arianne huffington has taken over aol as a result of inventing this thing called social news Social news means I log in and I see the news for my friends who are qualified to tell me what's happening in the filtered system And also of course using my friends to write for the same publication. They have about 5000 writers They have reinvented the concept of news And I think in a way that's not so easy to actually copy But this is to me definitely an application of smart or commerce There's a great report out by the economists in ryco Called a disruption in the in the future of business It's also available on the web for free you should download it But they basically list all that stuff that seems a little bit Off for us, but that's here today Holographics augmented reality Artificial intelligence computers that compare data for us all these kind of things but going back to what I said in the beginning This is our choice and I said this already last year. It's good to repeat We can either be disrupted by those things or we can disrupt using those things We don't have a choice of saying we're not participating Worst example, of course my favorite example is the music business That in 1999 experienced Napster, you know free trading of music And they realized that people really do want the music to live in the cloud And then get to it quickly and maybe download and not buy physical products. That was 14 years ago 13 years ago But they said we don't want to be disrupted in this way. So we'll cover it legally and we'll destroy it Result being that the industry has shrunk 72 Today we have Napster and it's called Spotify Or SimFi is the same idea basically we have it anyway So the question is when you see all these trends in your business people going on social networks people going on linked in check And you are before the meeting Competitors using mobile apps and stuff the question is not Whether that is the future because clearly it is whether you're going to allow that kind of disruption or be part of it Because today as as this picture with Robert Downey shows is that information today flows it doesn't download In other words things are moving so quickly that the way that we learn and change things today is by Basically tipping our hand into the flow of what's happening and then react rather than digesting it all And this is one of the fundamentally flawed principles of You know mba business studying is the idea of ROI calculation Calculating you know what happens when I download all these things I make a plan I react and then I carry out the plan by the time time you've done this there's been 5,000 rivers of flow of data and competitors already by your screen So how do you do that? I mean how do you actually change in real time? Fundamental changes lots of great stuff on the hbr blog about this From umair hake and many others about how to do real-time business innovation I think fundamentally a lot of the things that we used to do are totally flawed here Because they require this download process, you know the download and Digestion and the planning process that in many cases is too too wide and too far You've seen this in every single country around the world the total conversions of internet and television In fact television is now becoming part of the internet And by this is the saving grace of television unlike the music business It works together very nicely In less than five years The polish television and all the major stations in in in poland will be an app on your screen But just one of the apps An important app A state funded app I paid for taxes. I'm not sure if you pay tv taxes in poland I think you do right we do in switzerland. It's like 200 euros a year But what happens here is when television becomes just an app Then the state television in poland or rtl or bbc is one of my 40 or 50 choices of tv channels on my on my tablet I have ted.com. I have I have big think I have fora. I have whatever right these are apps that I use to watch tv Think about what that means for marketing also Where you're going to put your marketing money? Chances are very little you're going to put all your marketing money into television or radio in five years Because the audience goes like this fragments So lots of thinking about what the future of marketing there is you know We're clearly going from a scenario of broadcasting to what I call broad banding I mean just us of a 16 year old what broad banding is of course, I don't know the term right But for them it's the mobile social lifestyle. That's connected to the internet at all times I mean it's like having water Electricity I mean it's not all good. I'm not saying it's you know, it's Obviously a lot of destruction involved with that as well right, but we have this interchange between the television And the consumers themselves who also publish things For example ford ford cards had one of the most amazing promotions about two and a half years ago in the u.s Where ford said we have we've been out the fort fiesta again in america I didn't really know how to market it and what they said is that if you're a video maker If you promise to make one video a month Where you're driving the fort and you're doing something that could be good or bad doesn't matter You make one video a month with the car will give you a fort fiesta for free All right, I think they gave away 400 or so fort fiestas to 400 people And they made videos and put it on the uh, it's called the fiesta experience And guess how many of those videos were bad and the car is truly bad by the way Guess how many of those videos were really like bad about the car too For more than 10,000 videos Not just because it was free because it was a fun thing to do and and you know when you're driving you don't necessarily want to be negative So this art and this involving of people has become a major trend in marketing and Now that every screen is becoming a connected television A radio or a reader basically every screen Think about that if you make a mistake as a bank as an insurance company as a politician as a Government as a futurist whatever you make a mistake the next connected screen talks about it This is why you can't afford to lie in a long one. This is a very very big problem Is that in in commerce and business there's many things that we would prefer for our customers not to know You know, they maybe something didn't quite work right Or maybe this customer is getting a different kind of loan than that customer for no reason whatsoever I mean imagine yourself living in a world of perpetual wiki leaks A world that's more or less Transparent I believe that some things of course have to be secret clearly You know military banking and so on and so on company secrets But in general, you know the the trend toward being transparent is huge People want to know what you look like They want to know your rating Does any of you still book a hotel outside of poland maybe With not going and checking out what people say about the hotel I'd be surprised And you travel somewhere. I mean my mother who's 77 years old She doesn't use the internet of course not yet She calls me up and says i'm going to take this trip with this old people's club, you know Somewhere in austria. Could you google the hotel? To see how good it is because she knows what it does All right So this is the effect of transparency that goes for banks for politicians for insurance companies for artists for writers This is a rapid trend towards being transparent So we're moving from a paper culture to a screen culture And in many ways that's too bad, you know, I love paper. I write books I would much prefer people to buy my my real book and give me real money for my real book or Or rather the publisher the money so to speak But it's all about screens now We have to figure out how we're going to get onto people's screens And that the way to do that is not to say that there's no other way but us to get on the screen The way is to have an offering where people are saying this is so great. I got to have this I mean to attract the customer to get our app So if you're an insurance company, how do you do this? Well, you add value you give people something that goes beyond Calculating how they're how their rate is You give them a service and there's many many examples. I show you some of those in the future But we're clearly going to a world of Access not ownership a world of where we're clearly seeing that most of what we do has to do with being able to find stuff Access not ownership So going back to what I said in the beginning, right? We're jumping in this new fishbowl And I would definitely encourage you not to have the illusion that you can stay in the water glass There isn't going to be any water glass in a couple years Everybody is moving in this direction And I think really what that means is I think for the future of business the connected business crm marketing advertising r&d communications distribution all moving in this direction Most large companies like procter and gamble and unilever finding already up to 20 of the new product ideas from their customers I asked from their customers to invent the next product To tell them what the soap should look like to build a new car It's called crowdsourcing and we discussed last year Quickly, there's a great book that just came out Uh, well actually about three years ago from Jeff Ho called crowdsourcing. You should definitely take a look at that And I think to me that sort of symbolizes smarter commerce for me going forward. There's one crucial requirement I think that we keep coming up against especially uh, when we are talking about Making money and monetizing stuff that we used to all be in these silos, you know, we have product people and marketing people and they don't They hate each other usually Sales and biz dev and the branding guys, you know, this is all in separate universes Well, guess what the future is basically game over for this If your company is run like this Then look for another job Because what happens here is that as things move quicker and quicker We don't have time to check for the sensibilities of the other guys. We're building this together, right? It's actually the product is the marketing In many cases, you know the ipad, of course, being the perfect example, right? It itself itself, so to speak I mean the cult of apple is a perfect example So that idea of being in silos is game over So now we're coming to a world like this and this is uh, let me tell you this is a painful place Until you get used to this Because just until a few years ago We were the wheel in the middle But there weren't any other wheels This was our brain our company Our intellectual property Our distribution, you know, you you can own the ecosystem Ownership of ecosystems swiss com right until just a few years ago the only Provider in switzerland if you want to make a mobile phone call you have you have to go with them Right, they have a monopoly there the only one system microsoft Not in a bad way, but clearly that was a sort of a hegemony for a long time Many companies that were built on this kind of idea and now we have this idea that technology is forcing us to invent an ecosystem To actually figure out how we can connect with the other wheels So I think the future is about hyper collaboration One mission for you tonight when you come home after this event When you lie in bed with your iphone x2 or your samsung phone whatever you're using black pray for a bit Think about who can you collaborate with that you've always thought was your prime competition The people who are looking to kill your company To take you over from underneath Using this approach saying okay, how can we join together with those pieces? great example is um petagonia The company that makes clothes petagonia has known for a long time That many of their customers are collecting petagonia jackets, but not actually burying them very much and essentially wasting resources And Environmental companies have been shooting at petagonia for a long time about how they say that they are green But they're not really green right so petagonia said what we're going to do is we're going to run an ad Huge ad campaign all over the world. It says don't buy this jacket At the name there was the top line was a jacket on top of it was Don't buy this jacket to tell people that they don't need a new jacket if they already have four Or at the very least they can buy a used one from ebay, which they used to not want to sell through So they were essentially jumping into the pool of competing With their with their toughest competitors, which were the ones people saying that this is all wasteful economy And they sold 12 percent more jackets that year Which of course grant you that wouldn't work for everyone It's just an example right so hyper collaboration And I think to me that requires leadership And my good friend albert einstein That I visited in the vax museum Uh, he said creativity is a residue of time wasted This is a very un german thing to say of course But if we don't waste time to experiment with what our clients or customers and the population at large is doing We're not going to innovate I mean how are we possibly going to move forward if we don't do what everybody else is doing Facebook used to be considered a time waste and remember that Just about 12 years ago google was considered a time waster Yeah, you can search for things big deal YouTube was considered a time waster twitter is considered the ultimate time waster and it can be But guess what if you don't have time wasted you're not going to create the thing of tomorrow The mission in every country and every company has to be and that's what I usually propose Three to five percent of every employee's time Has to be allocated towards inventing and creating something new that can help the company to be different At google the rule is 10 percent for non engineers and 20 percent for engineers Every engineer at google has to spend 20 percent of their time on new projects To which they can get instant funding from the department up to I think $20,000 or $50,000 in the second level And if you don't come forward with ideas you get fired If you don't waste time you get fired think about that Efficiency and productivity isn't the same as inventing the future I'm happy to discuss with you later if you if you think different, but you know angstein said that so you must be right Another thing This is a kiwi map a new zealand map Of the world And you can see of course, it's the wrong way around It's the right way around for the kiwis for the new zealand people Seeing things in new ways becomes a crucial skill Which people at your company can see things differently should promote them To be the chief see things different officer I mean, that's the kind of people you need to invent what your company is going to be tomorrow You know what the car companies all of the major car brands bmw, Audi, Mercedes and so on are working on right now at high speed Guess what? Guess what any guess What everybody says electric cars, right? True, but you know what they're really working on? self-driving cars Cars who drive themselves And you know what they're working on after that? Transportation in a larger sense Tubes that shoot people under the ground. I'm not kidding I mean why in the world would a car company work on a self-driving car when it's clearly not a status symbol to have a car that drives itself That's a utility So car companies are using this approach and saying today we're about cars Tomorrow we are about transportation so Whatever business you're in, you know, if you're in a bank today you're about money financial services. What are you about tomorrow? What is the step beyond the office? Great example of smarter commerce is also this company called sonas If you're a high-fi and through the est And you're streaming music from the internet through Spotify or other services, whatever itunes also, of course Sonas is the speaker system where you can put speakers all over the house and have different music and different volumes all over the house in different places wirelessly It's a great system. I've been using it for a long time. Now sonas had this box on the left up there This box cost 300 dollars and it was the sonas controller You had to use this box to tell which room had what music Now when the mobile phone and apps came along three years ago or so and it became popular to control stuff with their mobile phone Sonas said well now we have a problem because people who are using this box for 300 dollars They're controlling their music. They are telling us That why in the world do we need this box? This could be an app I mean could be controlled with software with the with the mobile phone, right an app And then sonas said this is not a good idea, you know, we have about 600 000 people giving us 300 dollars for this box And then the user said you know what we don't care about your calculations Make it an app And then sonas said well, I'm going to charge 200 dollars for an app Good luck with that, right? So what did they do? made the app free And ate a loss of 20 million dollars If they hadn't done this, I swear they'd be dead today Instead they're the market leader in streaming music around the world in high-end high-fi systems for streaming music because Be bold, but don't be stupid I think I ended with this last year At the conference. I think this is very very important that this is forcing us to make bold moves to make the right decisions newspapers And poland is not looking quite so grim, but clearly the world is transitioning to digital news So what are newspapers doing? They're saying well, you know People are not so happy to pay for news and the the likelihood people actually paying for digital news is very very difficult Does anyone here pay for news on the internet? Yes, I'm paying Oh boy, this is pretty dark Okay, but you have newspapers subscribe I suppose Now what newspapers are doing is they're saying you know what we're not really selling the news in the past We've sold the paper The paper had the ads that paid for the reporters And what people were buying was not the news. It was the packaging of the news the print And that's why we were able to sell the advertising So my friend Ross Dawson who's a futurist from Australia came up with this beautiful chart that basically says there is 150 reasons What people would pay for They would pay for the interface the relevance the timeliness the design the curation the reputation Now you're in a very similar position even if you're not in the newspaper business, this is your future Because guess what people are not paying for your software not paying for your banking services. They're not even buying your car They're paying for everything around it the value around the core People stick with banks banks because of trust People buy from telecom providers not because they're sent cheaper for the sim card Well, that's sometimes one of the reasons of course But because of added values So one of the key questions I think for smarter business in the future is to figure out Let's not go too heavy on the pitch of saying that people should be paying for x y z like Newspapers are doing with paywalls so-called paywalls, right? You may be familiar with the new york times, which is the world's most Reputable supposedly newspaper and I'm a great fan of the new york times and many of their writers When you go to new yorktimes.com and you're reading the newspaper after 10 times It will find out by putting a cookie a software cookie That you've been there 10 times and will put up a gate and say well, you like us so much You want to come back and read but now Hold on it's 300 dollars 300 dollars And if i'm lucky it will give me a grace period to say You can have six weeks for 50 dollars or whatever the trick would be And they call this the paywall Forcing people to pay Now the new york times who is the oldest the most reputable the largest organization in the world for news really for newspapers 320 million people in the u.s. Guess how many people Love the new york times so much that they're doing this 950,000 and the new york times says this is a huge success And of course the advertising is dropping like a rock because the traffic is decreasing because people can't get in So the logic of forcing people to pay on the internet is totally flawed The logic of making people do something that they're not ready to do will just won't work We've seen that in music business. We've seen it in the airline business We've seen it all over the place And so basically our strategy has to be this and this goes for every brand to build value around the core If you're a bank you offer services about financial Discussion you offer content you offer things that people can tap into and give you some examples You know you create a market Facebook Again, I hope you didn't buy facebook stock and I I advise people to wait. So it was a good idea, I suppose But I have high hopes for their stock for the future. So maybe it's a good time now I don't want to predict anything though So facebook just came up with this three days ago You know what it is facebook gift Now imagine this if you have thousand friends on facebook And they're really our friends not just fake friends Imagine that facebook tells you it's xyz birthday. You know that you know really well next week And from their profile, which is very deep on facebook facebook knows this guy likes mountain bikes So I can get a bunch of my friends together And buy a mountain bike through facebook The person gets a digital gift on facebook a digital wrapped gift with music and everything And they can type in when when and where they want to deliver it to be ready for their birthday Using all of the cool data that facebook has About our friends and this could be for flowers. It could be for jets. I don't know, you know That business didn't even exist but facebook just crossed last week one billion users Facebook is the biggest country in the world apart from china maybe india And yesterday there were 27 billion minutes spent on facebook every fourth minute on the internet So if you're still thinking this is an aberration, I can't help you because you know clearly this is a highway And this is a highway for commerce I mean think about that don't you want to be if you're selling stuff, right? Don't you want to be part of this gifting thing on facebook? This will be a no-brainer All right, as a retailer in poland you would want people to buy gifts through facebook from you All right, and that all that stuff is being set up So facebook created a market with this And pace are created a market for mobile money And linked in let me see uh Let me see your hands who is on linked in I think everyone is on linked in right Linked in for some reason has been becoming more professional or has been viewed as more professional I was number 7000 on linked in when I signed up And that was like 50 years ago Whatever In when I did this and invite people to join me on linked in I think this was 2003 or something like that When raid Hoffman started it Um when I signed up I invited about a hundred people. You know what they said to me So what in the world are you doing given these people my email address? I don't want to connect with strangers if I want to do business with you I already know you or somebody is going to introduce me to you in real life. I don't need this stuff Today I'm getting over 400 invitations a day on linked in Because people have realized that having being networked Even if you're the ceo of a company Being networked is what it's all about. So today when you go to a meeting I mean all of us do this right before you come to this conference You went to my linked in profile It's okay to admit To see what the hell is this guy You're going to have a meeting with play or with any other mobile operator. You check out the vp of whatever on linked in To see what he's like takes you about 40 seconds. You can do it in the taxi And you can say oh you went to harvard. I went to harvard too or I tried so This is what's happening and linked in has built on this networked business idea They've built this business absolutely mind boggling right no wonder the ipo went so well And look what has taken the biggest leap there is hiring solutions That doesn't even exist when linked in started. I mean look at the pillow over there, right? I mean in the very beginning linked in Didn't even know what a hiring solution would be they set out to connect people like facebook but business So the lesson here is sometimes You have to create a market that doesn't really exist yet And you'll find out as you're creating it what the opportunities are of what you have created And this can be very risky I mean clearly linked in has Found a winning formula with marketing solutions, but you know many age our departments today We don't need them. We have linked in I mean if you're in the age of our business, you know people are looking at each other for hiring all the time on linked in That has become the prime resource How much more time do I have five five hours? It's 115 right Five minutes oh that I have to hurry up then okay All right, so this is a actually a very fitting picture for the hurry up here Okay, so we're living in this tunnel right we are now in this tunnel this tunnel is completely multi-leveled multi-reality And In a way, it's it's a parallel challenge of what we have today what we had yesterday And what we're going to have next week and what we're going to happen three years These are all happening in parallel ways So I think what needs to happen is that the old order of how stuff used to work Continues because it still makes money All right, and we can't just drop that with it Can't stop printing can't stop with will money can't stop with credit cards that can't stop with cars Right, but let me ask you a question. Who in this room believes that 10 years from now Most of us will be driving around in gasoline fueled cars Very unlikely Very very unlikely and this is something that we have to face so there's a new order coming up Right and that new order is tomorrow. So what we have to do is we have to parallelize the two Right, we have to work on the new order to take over the old order while we're doing the old order And this is not easy to be done. I think it's basically a dualistic approach Many of my clients are using this for innovation And some of my clients are saying we can't do this in-house because it will kill us We'll fund an entity that will try to to take us over From the outside, but we own it So that's one approach of a dualistic approach to the future um I talked about this already last year, but Clearly data has become in the key source of e-commerce Knowing what people are Who they are what they want to do what intentions they have where they come from Companies that deal with data like twitter facebook google amazon skype ebay and so on Other ones who are prospering the most. I mean look at the amount of data that's being collected on a daily basis Many people have said this before and I think it was originally from the american marketing association A guy named clive humby who said 2006 data is the new oil All of you are generating data in your business. You need to harvest it Process it right as as we heard over from IBM Find ways to make sense of it identify it. I mean look at this slide. It's a little bit hard to see You could see it better on the pdf later, right? But 52 of CEOs are saying they have to make decisions without having good data available I mean clearly on what we have today If you just go to search dot twitter.com And you put in the name of your company You know if it's not really small bakery here in russia, you know, then you can find people talking about your company In real time I mean monitoring people's conversations Looking at how we are already paying with data. I mean clear. This is a future In many business models are based on this. You know, it's uh As the cartoon says it's free, but they sell you information Very powerful mode. This is the facebook model, of course Selling information So if you if you're in business Collecting data from your customer. This is very very important is to get the data to be able to use it to get permission To monitor it to move forward based on things From this data. I don't have time to get into all the details here, but uh, you're welcome to download the pdf later Maybe you can formulate some questions while i'm you're fishing for my finishing slides here Okay, this is how we used to do business lots of phone calls Connecting with people, but the future of what we're doing here in and smart commerce Is basically this right is the cloud Which is content is our business is data Connecting with devices and with the people behind it. Of course connecting the cloud and the crowd content marketing earned media And what are what are called return on involvement? So Basically the ROI calculation the return on investment gets turned around to say how involved are we with our customers? And what can we get back from this? And that's how it turns into money connecting the crowd and the cloud I think this is a crucial thing that we're seeing in the future and one of the challenges is this You know, we're all sort of little plastic men, but we're not the same Our fragmentation is going to absolutely explode Every customer wants something different This goes for all kinds of industries for example in the travel industry where I do a lot of work The number of people who go to unknown locations Not las vegas Not saapala not religion error or wherever right to places that haven't been gone to before very much Has increased from like four percent to over 30 percent People are going like this Fragmentation of habits of choices. This is clearly going to be a challenge Um, it's really only five minutes, right? Really, okay All right, okay, uh, hopefully you get to see the slideshow later so that we can come back to this, okay Um As you can see I had lots of choices and I didn't want to deprive you of this Um So the future of brands I think this is a very important part of the conversation today There's a great book that just came out by Roy Bagua called likeonomics And this may strike you as a very American view of the world Maybe it is But the idea of your users and your customers, especially b2b, right especially b2b Liking you as a company liking your offering and expressing that for example not through facebook, but to many other means right and Craft foods had a great commercial that they put up Where people that like craft were asked to join a band watch this clip here So this is an interesting phenomenon, right brands want to be liked And so craft foods which make really boring stuff macaroni and ketchup and stuff like that, right They made a movie out of being liked I think two million times in facebook And they used people from the movie to actually from the from the liking crowd to actually do this So likeonomics is now very real and I think this is something that you should keep in mind Um as a sort of a rapper of this topic is that really it's all about trust When you're talking about social local mobile now Let's skip ahead one more time and then we will indeed move towards lunch. I don't want to keep you from eating That would be terrible How many people are using dropbox here anybody dropbox? Okay Dropbox just as a final example Is really good at this and this is the amazon motor, right the lighting your customers. This is an email I got from dropbox About six weeks ago Usually when you get emails from companies it says, you know, we're very sorry to tell you that as of now you have to pay twice as much as before But dropbox sent me an email said congratulations. We've doubled your space on dropbox I don't know why but it was a present just a present Amazon sent me an email nine months ago saying if you live in the u.s As of now you have five thousand free movies You can watch on the amazon movie service just because you're a premium customer. It's a present That's a really really key point for the future is to think about you know, how do we connect with people by the lighting them? so a quick summary and then Some questions if we have time Four sides, okay Clearly going beyond the obvious we touched on that in the beginning If we have nobody in your company looking beyond the obvious The obvious will catch up with you before you're ready for it So that is I think is a job really for everyone Shaping the future rather than waiting for the future as the tesco chief tells us Dive into big data. What can you do with the data that you're collecting? Who is allowed to use it? Can you create apis? application platform interfaces to swap data with other people and generate value from it I mean clearly that's a trend that we're seeing on the web everywhere Integrate social local mobile today And if you don't live in this world, you have to I mean this is clearly the world that we're going to see people with tablets Doing these things and they're going to be anywhere from 15 to 75 years old So integrating social local mobile connecting the crowd in the cloud crowd sourcing we didn't have time to talk about Rebuild your company to be truly network and interconnected This is a very large mission, of course Companies are not connected with very few exceptions like apple Apple is sort of the a social company you could say even though they have a large developer group They will be there for a while, but by and large a disconnected company will be disconnected I'm with probably fatal results Focus on human-centric technologies, right? This is not about tech. This is not about geeks This is not about cool software is about what it does for people It's not about all the other stuff that it could be doing All right, but about the stuff that it actually does for people And do you have a product that can make you the market maker? My theory is that most companies like car companies Transportation companies airlines and so they're all now in the process of making a new market And not just getting a new plane, but actually make it a new product Adopting open strategies. We didn't really get into this But if you want to be trusted you have to be open Now clearly nobody's going to trust you if you keep secrets of everything that you do and what you're thinking The last is the most important Imagine some company would do what you do for one tenth of the money And would do it instantly that is the future that is going to happen to almost all of us So our choice at this point is to take what people are going to use that has rubbed us and make it ours I mean again I think there we're going into erection where it's all about having foresight and getting that quicker And I think the the idea of doing smarter commerce is exactly that because in the future there won't be anything except for smart commerce There won't be any dumb commerce In practices if that even exists today, there won't be any commerce left. That's not smart So I think that's the direction of we're going to finish us off with a quote from the Tesco CEO Lead the revolution Or be a victim of the evolution. Thanks very much for your time Thank you very much for this insightful presentation. I think we have Yeah, we are very punctual But we will find some time for questions I have a twitter question. We'll take this one first. There's somebody here is actually twittering Petra see Get off of it. No, no, how do you see the future for apple? Let me take a look We're closed environments survive Obviously, I'm an apple fan and I use all the apple stuff, but I think the likelihood that you can survive with a closed controlled strategy that's based on genius Is very little. I think apple will survive because it did that well or at least for the next three to five years Because it has done that well, but I think this is like buying a lottery ticket I think basically what we're seeing here is that most companies are going the opposite They're trying to connect with others to build a system that sustains Which by definition is open Like in software clearly if your software doesn't talk to other softwares If you don't have apis if you don't feed from the information river, then you disconnected your debt So you're looking what's happening with amazon or with cisco intel or IBM or many others, right? It's all about connecting with others Not actually owning all of the pieces of the connection And I think it's basically a whole evolution of business that we're seeing that is moving to a situation to where It's about building a common product, for example Or something that's dependent on others. There's a great movie you should watch. It's called connected the movie by Tiffany schlain I think you can get it on itunes or so it's talking about how we're becoming more interdependent And we're actually becoming dependent on others to create new business models that that's nowhere more obvious than in banking financial services The complete I mean the information that that people have available now you can go to american express open forum You can find out all there is about money and and buying stocks and all that stuff. You don't need your bank It's like a record label So what is the bank then going to do? To take a new space and their food chain to add more value. I have to connect with others And there is a role of course for that in the future not saying there's no role for banks. There is clearly In many ways if you see for example, what happens in newspapers 10 years ago The art pool the average revenue per user For newspaper in america was was 300 dollars a year for each reader The art pool of google per user was five dollars The music industry made billions of dollars about 40 billion a year from selling CDs From records that they had purchased the rights for 30 years ago So we had this expectation of huge business for very little effort And then the web comes along and says now you have to reinvent a lot And get very little back in the beginning right it's like a total flip So therefore if we take from what we did yesterday and we superimpose into the future We tend to want to say it has to be as good as least as good as it was until now Well, that is a fatal flaw right because there's no such thing There's no thing that keeps us in the same business without inventing a new one So the question I think is very good because basically it shows the way forward In my view is the co-creation of interesting new business models And as I was saying earlier the hyper competition Think of your fiercest competitor Is there something you can do together to actually create a new product that will benefit everyone in that chain? Any other questions? Keep tweeting Is there anything else we can slow down this this digital trends? I fear there are some New consumer trends that the people got tired and want to be locked out There are even some travel agencies when you can book the trip they Pick you up all your mobile devices for one or two weeks and you are totally disconnected You forget about the social media and all the things and From the other side I work for insurance insurance sector where there is a lot of about privacy and well Many digital projects failed because of the privacy and the Let's say need from the customers to to be connected to the human being and not to the Device let's say. Yeah. Well, of course, that's that's a huge societal change that we're willing to accept More a little bit less privacy for more services For example, when google launched gmail, you know, all of the i'm sure one or the other using gmail, right when gmail came along Everybody said this is terrible because google is reading my email I mean and they have people reading it to learn right not not just machines, right because google is putting ads I mean I have about 350 000 emails on gmail, right? So google is putting the ads that they've learned from 350 000 males in conversations Into the sidebar of my google and it's so close to what I am It's scary So people said this is bad because google reads my email And it looks like they actually looked at it. It's very scary and nobody wanted to use it Turns out gmail was the best thing ever that happened to email for a lot of people Right today you have 220 million users and people are saying well, so what they read my email I mean, I'm I'm not surprised that they know me for my email But I've kind of gotten used to it But there is a limit to that I think people will get used to some of these things that depends very much on cultural things, you know, where we are We're not the same as people in Korea or even in America So clearly it's a culture question. I think the other thing is that clearly also offline is becoming the new luxury And this is actually quite good. I mean in many ways now Being offline or not being connected is important and it's becoming sort of the detox In many ways, you know, it's a little bit like, you know, when you are in really powerful devices a little bit like a drug In fact, there's about 46 clinics in Korea for internet addiction And this is this is happening on a global level That will that will normalize. I mean remember folks out when the telephone came along People were afraid that people were not going to visit each other anymore because they could make a phone call Not true When the video recorder came along people said people won't go to the theater to watch a show Not true So I'm not that worried about I think that privacy is the number one issue clearly And I think in the future we'll be paying for privacy We'll we'll find a mechanism. For example, google I have offers that we can buy our privacy back from google That will be quite an interesting business, but clearly the number one threat To a lot of these things social local mobile is the concern about privacy So that that has to be solved and people are working on that As I was saying in my last slide Most important about technology is not What the machine likes or what the database likes Is about what people like So if you're using technology it always has to have a human purpose Bringing the human of the customer closer to you creating a bond creating value All right, that is the really the value of technology and sometimes that that actually means using less technology So I'm not entirely 100 percent on everything is good that we have here But having said that I think the connectivity that we're becoming network is absolutely inevitable I mean that It's a little bit like, you know, you've seen the matrix or minority report. I think it's matrix Where you can be on the grid or you can be off the grid I think very few of us will be off that grid of connectivity If we are in business, you know, this is going to be also quite a challenge because sometimes we become a little bit naked So to speak But I think there's no need for regulation on this I think that basically is a question of our own responsibility For example on my facebook or linkedin pages or so you will not see my wife or my kids You know, you can find out about me pretty well on the internet But you can't find out You know what my kids have been doing or what my birthday party looked like or whatever, right? That's where I draw the line So I think all of us have to draw that line And this can be quite difficult I mean we have In this country and in Europe in general, we have more concerns about Showing ourselves in Switzerland, for example, it's completely not You know being exhibitionist about who you are That's a cultural question. I think that needs to be maintained also But the long-winded answer is You know, if you want to look for a future business Keeping privacy and safeguarding it while you can still use the data. That's a huge business And that's definitely going to be a challenge for a lot of business models But as I said in the beginning with the with the gmail example people get used To different services at different times and it becomes part of normal and parenthesis I'm not sure that's good or bad, but that is also a trend Thanks for the question Any other on twitter Oh, yes, we have oh, yeah, okay It's actually working. Thanks. It's tato Okay, I have to read this before I read it to you That is a bit of a filter now What would be the advised way to develop for the music industry in your opinion? That's a short answer go away No, just kidding I worked in music business for a long time and The way to develop for those legacy industries that made lots of money doing very little Is to essentially have a reboot. I mean, it's quite clear people love music. There's great artists People are willing to pay People are willing to pay for content. They pay for netflix. They pay for spotify. They pay for farm will They pay for linked in So who here pays for linked in let me see people pay for premium linked in No, I am too ashamed to admit it. I pay for linked in but anyway There's no such problem that people don't want to pay that they hate music All not true, right? So all the arguments are barking out the wrong tree So the recreation of that for example and music would be clearly to adopt a fully digital model That's based on access not an ownership granted this of course the music industry is the worst case because The only four companies in the world really that ran the music business that that means four guys, right? literally guys too bmg owner sonia four guys running the whole thing So if in that kind of industry is extremely hard because they'll all agree that they shouldn't be doing it and then the world changes, right? But it didn't So that's kind of hard. I think the more open the industry is publishing maybe television The more open you are the more quicker you are to move with where things are going so music industry is kind of a tough case but Anyway, uh, don't have a standard solution final question. Do you agree that when you don't pay for service? You're not a customer Only a product being sold Lawrence coaster that's interesting I think what's happening is that In this service, we are the content, right? We are the show of facebook In fact, many people saying that facebook is a perpetual virtual tv show and we are the actors I mean, we are the content of facebook What are we getting and what is facebook getting right now? It's a deal, right? I say to facebook you give me this way of talking to people And communicating and doing stuff and promoting myself also, right? And I give you my data So you can sell advertising Is that a bad deal? I think it could be But if it's carefully handled not really, I mean that's kind of okay deal. I think If we watch it on both sides And you know, we are the currency of this of this network So in many ways a customer that's what I call this paying with attention When you pay with attention, that's worth real money. I mean, we're paying with attention in many different ways You know, everything that we do on google is paying. We're paying with attention and with data I'm not sure that's a bad model. I think that's also pretty much an ever the model As long as we can make sure that we are in control of what we're giving and when Which seems to be the major problem behind facebook, right? But anyway, I think the future for that is uh quite bright here because these business models are being generated right now Before facebook nobody had to invent anything like this And it's this is a tough job for Zuckerberg and his people They have to invent all of this right advertising on facebook that we used to have on the internet won't work You're going to see the complete reinvention of advertising as part of this model Anyway, thanks very much And you can download my slideshow in about two hours from twitter g leonhardt and of course from the website Thanks very much for having me again