 Okay folks, welcome to a quick commentary with regard to which stock I believe Pfizer or Moderna is going to be the best pure play COVID-19 vaccine stock. What we're going to talk about are the orders that are already known by each company. Then we'll talk a bit about the impact of these orders and future orders on each individual stock. Then we'll talk a little bit about the fundamentals of each company and of course we will go over the charts to discuss my opinion with regard to the technical analysis of each stock and at the end I'm going to leave you off with my opinion of which stock is the best pure play on COVID-19. Let's get to it. So let's begin with this chart in front of you and we're going to segment out only Canada, the United States, Japan and the EU because each company has a measurable footprint in each one of these markets and the total orders at current in each one of these markets is at total 745 million doses of the vaccine. 37% of that goes to Moderna which is in pink and 63% of those orders go to Pfizer. Now you might be saying well Bob the the obvious question here about who benefits the most from the COVID-19 vaccine is obviously Pfizer. No it's not and I'll share with you why. When you take a look at the revenue of Pfizer in the year 2019 the revenue for Pfizer was 51 spot 75 billion dollars whereas for Moderna in 2019 revenue is only 60 spot 2 million dollars for the year. So the impact on sales by far will have a far greater influence on Moderna's stock rather than Pfizer's. Now when you take a look at the fundamentals of Pfizer let's face it it's a good company it's a safe company when you take a look at the annual return on equity it's a 26 spot 5 huge outstanding probably one of the best in the industry. If you're looking for a dividend yield it's sporting a 4.1% yield very respectable. Now when you take a look at the sector of each they're both competitors however they're in different industry groups whereas Pfizer is a larger medical ethical drug group stock it's ranked number 11 in that group with Bristol Myers Squibb being number one. Its accumulation distribution rating is at a D meaning it's been under some distribution of late it's earning per share rating not wonderful. The EPS rating on investors.com goes from a scale of 1 to 99 whereas when you take a look at a stock like Moderna it's in the medical biomed biotech group basically biotech it's ranked number 30 out of a group of 30 so not wonderful. Its EPS score is very weak weaker than that of Pfizer its relative strength score meaning the strength of its overall stock as rated by IBD we're going to talk more about this in a moment is far stronger than that of Pfizer and whereas the accumulation distribution rating of Pfizer was at a D Moderna is far more favored by the market with a score of a minus. Now we spoke earlier about Pfizer's outstanding return on equity Moderna has no return on equity what it does have that Pfizer does not is an incredible 826% quarter on quarter growth rate that's massive whereas with Pfizer sales last quarter were actually down so you can see that while you have two stocks that are leaders in the COVID vaccine race they are two completely different companies with Pfizer being a far more diversified company and Moderna being a far more pure play on the COVID-19 vaccine. Now let's talk about technicals we're going to begin with a weekly chart of Pfizer and last week you can see that it spiked up higher on the news that its vaccine had a 90 success rate here's the problem technically is that we had broken out last week we were unable to hold those gains and we have given all of those gains back this week that is a concern. Now you might be saying you know Bob you're the guy that's always complaining about don't buy a stock or chase a stock once it's trading above its third standard deviation Bollinger Band here in red where it pierced last week and yes you're absolutely right very astute to bring up that point the problem is is that I do not like when stocks break out and then fall back down into a trading range that's what you call a bull trap or a breakout point failure does that mean that Pfizer is not going to break out it's not going to do well of course it's going to do well it's going to probably break out fairly soon because when you pull back to a monthly chart things become a little bit brighter assuming that we don't lose much more ground on the month we're very close to a major breakout on Pfizer we have been in a multi-year consolidation we're very close to a breakout but we're not there yet now looking at a monthly chart of Moderna well things become a lot more interesting and a lot more bullish let's update this we have far less data on Moderna so that's why the charts look different so you can see here that assuming that we close above this line in blue we have a breakout this month a very very strong chart now we could drill down to a weekly chart and you could see here's our gap up we actually even gapped up last week in sympathy with Pfizer and we broke out last week now this week what are we doing we're trading above the two standard deviation Bollinger Band in green and we're kissing the three standard deviation Bollinger Band in red that doesn't give me the warm and fuzzies to be honest with you if i wanted to go opening up a position here the time to have really done that was you could have nibbled back here on this higher low office support and then added more in a breakout last week right now to me the horse has left the barn short term anyway and when you drill down to a now a daily chart things get a little bit worse we have rsi at 78 spots 75 it can go higher but when you take a look at the share price it's very extended relative to the third standard deviation Bollinger Band in short we're not supposed to be there when you look back in history in case you're questioning my rationale here when you go back in history take a look at prior times where we've been up at these levels it didn't end well back here as well may have 20 it didn't end well back here as well right does that mean that Moderna is going to crash no of course not so let's talk about which stock i believe is the best pure play on the COVID-19 vaccine hands down Moderna is the number one stock in the ring why well Pfizer is a massive company and they have dozens of other drugs and whatever value that the COVID vaccine brings to its bottom line it'll be minuscule relative to the impact that any profits from the COVID-19 vaccine will have on Moderna and keep in mind of those sales of 745 million units that we know of already and only growing Moderna which is a significantly smaller company than Pfizer already has 37 percent of those sales that's in the books now we can't argue that Moderna is a significantly more volatile stock than Pfizer and to that Moderna does not pay a dividend whereas Pfizer does pay a dividend so if you're a retired investor or one that doesn't want the volatility that a stock like Moderna could bring Pfizer's your stock it gives you the exposure to COVID however you're not exposed to the volatility that Moderna could bring now me personally i'll be looking for a pullback on Moderna i'll be talking about this with members in the coming days of as to where we want to enter right now to be honest with you Moderna is setting up as a short term short only because it's becoming a little bit overbought and i just don't feel comfortable with buying it at these extreme levels however we're going to get a pullback if it's a nice orderly pullback down to a support level then it'd be more than happy to step up and then begin to accumulate shares we send out alerts to members and in closing folks if i could ask you to smash that like button i truly appreciate it down below a gift to you is my video tutorial course on my five top most favorite candlestick patterns join us live each sunday night and thursday night on youtube there's a link below enter your email address get alerted 15 minutes prior to us going live and remember trade the charts not the hype