 And we also did not look at soil carbon or agroforestry because these models did not include, as I said before, carbon sequestration. They only include the non-CO2 gases. And we then calculated using two different global data sets. One is a bottom-up technology by technology estimate. In other words, we added up, if you mitigated in rice, if you mitigated in livestock, if you mitigated in grasslands, and you added up all of the different impacts of different technologies, what would that be? At very low prices, 20 tons of CO2. And then $20 per ton of CO2. And then we took another model, which is an integrated assessment model, and we looked at what happened if you increased production efficiency also at low prices. And what did these two different data sets tell us? You can see here, except that there's no laser, you can see at the top the three different initial estimates of the target and the one gigaton goal that we're trying to reach. And then you can see technical practices only get us 40% of the way there, and production efficiency only gets us 21% of the way there. In other words, we have a huge gap between the mitigation we need to achieve in the agriculture sector and the mitigation we could achieve, and these are already extremely aspirational estimates because they assume global scale changes and global levels of technology change. So we have a real problem. And I should say that we can consider these to be the plausible interventions in contrast to the aspirational target. So again, only 21% to 40% of the plausible mitigation interventions would achieve the plausible interventions only achieve 21% to 40% of the target. So that means we need to think beyond current practices. The Global Research Alliance for Agricultural Greenhouse Gases has created this race track of technology options in the livestock sector. You can see at the bottom the practices that we already have, and you can see at the top the more blue sky options for the future, and then they've divided them into everything from animal health and breeding to grassland management, manure management. So what we need to do if we're trying to achieve this two degree target is obviously get more of the practices in the pipeline, like vaccines for livestock or genetic traits for reducing emissions, get those into our current best practices. Now I haven't explicitly talked about other options that are related in the agriculture sector, whether that's soil carbon or the impact of agriculture on deforestation, shifting dietary patterns, so changing consumption patterns, decreasing food waste or other aspects in specific livestock or in specific supply chains like livestock. And here we've just summarized numbers, especially from the IPCC, of the minimum and the maximum that have been shown to be possible in each of these sectors. These do not represent a target. So while you might say, oh, we only need to meet one gigaton of CO2 equivalents in order to achieve our target, and you can get four from the forestry sector, if you included all of these options, the target would be somewhere between probably four and six gigatons. So the target depends on what you decide to include. And I would suggest that we really need to start developing targets in each of these areas. So just to conclude, I think we all need to keep in mind what is our aspirational target in order to achieve the two-degree goal and in agriculture for the non-CO2 gases, that's one gigaton. Not mitigating in agriculture is either going to increase the cost of mitigation or it's going to mean that we don't meet our two-degree target. So we have to be really serious about trying to achieve something in agriculture, it's going to cost us more or we're not going to reach our target. And in the end, we have to think about some radical technological and policy changes in order to achieve the two-degree target, whether that's breeding, and we have to really think out of the box, low methane rice, low methane livestock, putting biological nitrification inhibitors into our cereal crops or thinking about really different policies than what we have now. And I'm very excited to say that we have a number of options that the panelists are now going to present to you to help us think about some of these options. Thank you. Thank you. If you're just joining, again, my name is Daniel, and I'm here as a youth with SustainUs and just want to call up our next... So we're now going to have four different folks present about kind of different elements of what was just spoken about. So first up is going to be Rosa Roman, who is an all-star scientist and associate researcher at... how do you pronounce the name of the university? Wageningen. Wageningen University. Thank you. So, again, I'm going to sit... I'm going to give this to you. I'm going to sit in this chair and hold up a card. Good. Hello, everyone. I'm back on the stage. Please. Thanks, everyone. Sorry about this technical confusion. We're right back. So I'm going to try to convince you why it is important to invest on climate mitigation through restoration and conservation of peatlands. There are several reasons why, if I were investor, I would consider important into preserving and conserving and restoring peatlands. One would be that we are talking about coven dense ecosystems, so we would receive higher mitigation returns per unit area. There is very few other ecosystems that clearly have higher synergies with adaptation and also that would respect and would promote ecosystem services providing as wetlands and peatlands to and therefore by promoting mitigation in these ecosystems we're also benefiting and promoting co-benefits. I would also be interested if I were an investor in looking at areas that are also participating highly in global emission budgets. We're talking about peatlands and wetlands participating up to 10% of the global affluent greenhouse gas emissions in the decade of 2000-2009. Then the trends. What are the future trends? I want to protect something that I know is going to be at risk so that additionality can be higher and peatlands are heavily under risk through increased drought, increased fire and increased agricultural expansion through global commodity demand. Also an interesting point from investors is that even though restoration is certainly an option, we do need to regret degraded peatlands. Conservation and no action on this high carbon density ecosystems would be our choice. We're talking about something that would be cheaper than restoring. Also on the opportunity windows, we're talking about political momentum. The things are heavily promoted under the Paris Agreement, the conservation, the restoration, the enhancement and also social momentum. There is on the news for the last several years we have seen the health impacts of peatlands burning in Indonesia. So there is a momentum in terms of peatlands having reached the public opinion. People are severely concerned about it. Also we count right now on interesting transformative transparency initiatives such as TRACE, which has been presented today here, which is Transparency for Sustainable Economies, which is basically disentangling the spider web of commodity contributor, supply change commodity contributors. So from the producers to the distributors to the consumers. And this is not only helping us understand who is participating and who is who, so that we can disentangle the mitigation needs from these different stakeholders, but also puts consumer into the right platform of climate change mitigation. It's not only supply side mitigation, but demand side mitigation. And most importantly we're counting of new data. And new data is extremely important for wetland and peatland restoration and conservation because one of the main reasons countries are not including peatland into their national targets is because they are lacking data. We don't have enough data so far to establish peatland baselines and to establish MRV systems that will contribute to TRACEs on the future, the trends of the missions, but also to produce robust greenhouse gas inventories. So there is a technical issue around it. Where are the peatlands? How dense they are? What is the carbon stocks? What are the carbon contents, the bulk densities? And we will see how new data is appearing and why it is an opportunity to invest right now. Of course the technical barriers are also related to political, social and financial frameworks. This is the new data that we have produced. This is Goomburg Hadal, this is right now under review. And it's showing us a very different panorama of the peatland, it's particularly in the tropics and subtropics which are the regions that have less data and that are the ones that will be suffering from higher impacts of climate change. Right now our understanding is that Southeast Asia is the country with the highest amount of peats, with the highest contribution of peat to the global, sorry, to the tropical domain. What we see now is that this is biased and this is biased by research and this is biased by accessibility. We are discovering or putting into publications, discovering is a big word, large extent peat deposits, both in Africa, like the Kuwait Central Congolese, in the border between Cogon and Congo DRC, up to seven meters of peat, very extensive, more than 100,000 square kilometers. The same for the Pastatha Maranian region in the northern jungles of the Loretto Peruvian jungles, up to nine meters of peat deposits, very unmapped yet. And also what is exciting from our map is that we are finding a lot of under reported peatland hotspots that are mainly concentrating and shifting the importance of peat out of Southeast Asia and into Latin America. In our data, the main contributor of peat in volumes and stocks is not Southeast Asia, it's Latin America, the Brazilian, Amazon and particularly Brazil. So with the examples of under reported peatlands in the Amazon Basin, in the Rio de la Plata, Paraguay, Paraná, Argentina contributed strongly. Then we also see other peatlands in Asia, not yet reported like Bangladesh, the river deltas in Cambodia, sorry, Cambodia, Indom, Vietnam, et cetera, and some other areas in Africa. So just to finish, what is this important? It is important because some of these under reported peat areas are just now suffering from intensified drought effects. They are on the borders of frontier and then we have a lot to learn about what's happening in Southeast Asia. So we don't want to repeat the same mistakes that we have now done in Southeast Asia of peat conversion and peat degradation. And basically the numbers are huge. So the potential for mitigation is also huge. Basically we're talking about three fault increases in area of peatlands in the tropics. There is much more peatland than before reported, much higher volumes and much higher stocks. So we're talking about a global phenomenon and I hope this is a topic that would interest investors. Thanks very much. Thank you so much, Rosa. Whose slides are next here? So can you pull up anyone's slides? Great. So let's give Rosa another hand for all that awesome research and info you've been doing. Thank you. So next up we're going to call up Debra Bosio, who's the lead soil scientist for the Nature Conservancy. And again you're going to have about six and a half minutes to kind of pitch your idea. And if you're just joining the frame is imagining as if these are like pitches to people who would invest money in those policies. And so that's sort of like a pitch. So that's the framing. Hi. Thank you all for coming. Welcome to the session. We're here to talk about soil organic carbon, soil carbon sequestration. It was one of the items already mentioned by Linnea is sort of not yet included in how we're looking at agricultural mitigation. And that's why it's so important for us to think about it today. It's a topic close to my heart. I've been working in soil science for decades. But it's not just me that's excited about soil carbon. Last year the Cap Pro-Mill initiative was launched at the COP last year. 150 governments and organizations have signed on. And this initiative's primary goal is to raise the profile of the importance of soil for both food security and for climate change mitigation. So a lot of people are talking about this and the question now is how do we move forward? And why are we talking about this? First because the stock of carbon in soil is two or three times larger than that in the atmosphere. Meaning that the possible for putting carbon into the atmosphere from soil as a source or putting it back into the soil as a sink is very, very large. So that's why people are suddenly getting much more excited about this underappreciated aspect. The other thing that's very important is that soil organic carbon has multiple benefits. Food production, water, clean water, creating resilience and adaptation of farming systems and also the climate mitigation potential of it. And what the Cap Pro-Mill is promoting is the idea that if we halt land use change emissions that soil could absorb the remaining fossil fuel emissions that are not yet absorbed by land and ocean sources so that it is quite big potential with an aspirational, completely aspirational target of 3.5 gigatons carbon per year. Now we need to go much further beyond this kind of aspirational talk and see but one of the really big questions in science was okay but what really could we do? What could we achieve and where would we achieve it? Because agricultural lands are the ones that we're actively managing that's going to be the area where we can most quickly start to make changes in what's happening in the soil carbon pool. So we did a recent analysis to sort of look at this scenario that if you blanketed all agricultural lands, so the colored parts you hear are only farmed agricultural lands not pasture lands even. If you blanketed agricultural lands with practices that would enhance carbon sequestration what could we really get and where would you maybe see it? You see here the big numbers we get if we use what people know about known practices now so this is based on realistic numbers of known practices you could get between 0.9 and 1.8 pedograms of carbon per year in the top 30 centimeters of the soil and you see some real hot spots for example in North America in the corn belt in Europe in India and this is primarily because it's a combination between where we're doing intensive agriculture where there's going to be 60, 70, 80% agricultural use of those lands that's where we're also going to be having the most potential to sequester the carbon. Now you might ask okay after this but what would we be doing what are the actual practices that would be contributing to this and one message I want to convey here is this really isn't business as usual because we do have these practices and we know that they can sequester carbon agroforestry we're going to be talking about agroecological practices like using cover crops and crop rotations, rangeland management, conservation tillage but to actually achieve the kind of targets we're talking about first you're going to have to get large scale rollout of these practices, very large scale and you might also be having to push the envelope on what practices can achieve by combining practices and one that I really like to point out that we're not doing very much yet is this recycling of organic materials working much more at this rural-urban interface where we have so much pollution and so much organic materials and nutrients polluting our systems from the cities we need to bring that back to the land as part of our strategies. There are some caveats I'd like to mention right up front before anyone brings it up large scale rollout will take time that means we can't achieve the possible benefits immediately it will take time as we implement practices over the landscape so you can see another analysis we did a couple years ago which show that there's a phased implementation of rollout before you achieve the actual goal that we would like to see and then because soils have finite capacities to store carbon within about 20 years we would also start to see a decrease in the annual sequestration but we would still need to maintain the practices to maintain what's in the ground in the ground so permanence is a big concern here and monitoring is also a question but this is where I see soil carbon as a very important entry point because it is a single point that you can monitor as opposed to some of the other more broad based practice changes so what I want to pitch is how would we get here so we have the idea of what we want we want to change agricultural practices and then we have an idea of what we can get we can come up with these global numbers all the time it's actually quite easy how much we want to get the one giga or pedigram of carbon per year but how are we going to actually get there I think that's where we need to put our investment money and this is one example of what the nature conservancy is doing we're looking at transforming half of North America's agricultural lands into soil conserving and soil carbon enhancing practices and the way we plan to get there is to address the issues in science which has to do with how do you monitor and understand soil health an entry point that's interesting to the farmers who manage the land which is soil health and productivity not climate change is the main entry point we look at the economic aspects including really interesting ones like even in the US it's tenant farmers who are forming 60% of the land how do you get to align the interests of even the land holder with the tenant farmers who are in short-term thinkers about how they manage land towards these long-term goals so this is a major thing that will be addressed in this roadmap as well as providing agricultural services that support carbon enhancing practices which today they do not and then also the policy aspects I think that this type of roadmap would be equally relevant in other countries and would be a way that we could think about going about achieving the goals in soil carbon sequestration thank you thank you so much Debra so next up we're going to call up Louis Versho who is the director of soils research at CIAT which is the Centro Internacional Centro de Agricultura I'm messing it up I wanted to do it in Spanish the International Center on Tropical Agriculture thanks thank you this seems tricky so maybe I need some training that's the forward button the one that goes backwards turn it around and the pointer is there I got it so I'm going to talk to you today about the livestock sector is this the wrong one I just forgot to change the front slide I have another presentation by Board of Trustees this evening so I want to talk a bit about the livestock sector and the potential for mitigation in the livestock sector and let's start with the magnitude of the problem there's 17 billion livestock worldwide this is everything from cattle to guinea pigs or camels to guinea pigs if we go by size so there's a huge number of animals that humans are keeping to maintain their food system about 67% or about 5 billion hectares of agricultural land is used to feed these animals this includes 3.4 billion hectares of grazing land so it's huge it's much larger than crop lands much of this land has been severely degraded by over grazing and unsustainable production particularly in the tropics and livestock generate about 7.1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent annually this includes deforestation for the expansion of grazing lands and pastures and it's about 15% of all human greenhouse gas emissions so we've been working on an initiative at SEAT called Livestock Plus Livestock Plus involves a number of things good... it says laser alright doesn't work so good policies and strong institutions integrated with well managed tropical forage based systems and access to markets is working to improve livelihoods through profitable livestock production and this Livestock Plus initiative is really about how do we change management to improve people's livelihoods and to reduce the environmental hoof print of the livestock isn't that cute? hoof print right? of livestock so we have the technical innovations and intensification process is genetic it's ecological and socio-economic and this works to create benefits in terms of products but also services the ecosystem services as well as the livestock based products through the integration of crop and livestock for example in the Yanos in Colombia on some of these asset soils if we go from a native savanna to an improved pasture we can significantly increase live weight gain from about 27 kilograms per hectare per year in the natural range land systems to over a thousand kilograms per hectare per year in intensively managed pasture systems and there's a whole range of intermediates along the way including crop and livestock crop and pasture rotations the outcomes that this produces are several first of all on the lower part of the lower panel over here there are a whole series of brachiaria humidicola varieties that Seat has been developing that actually inhibit nitrification there is a chemical produced in the root system that inhibits nitrification and we're currently working in breeding this trait into other varieties of brachiaria something specific in the genetics it probably can't go to other varieties like Panicum or other species like Panicum or other species but within the brachiarias we should be able to breed this trait and on the right hand side since I don't have a pointer I will point like this this is a biological nitrification inhibition variety and you can see it significantly reduces nitrous oxide production which is one of the major pollutants from agriculture this is compared to a control compared to some crops and compared to several other types of pasture systems so through proper variety selection and breeding we can probably reduce the nitrous oxide emissions from these systems and it's not just the nitrification of nitrous oxide produced in the soil but also the nitrous oxide produced in the dung and urine patches and so this is a significant source in the tropics we can increase carbon stocks in these soils so if we're going from a native grazing land or a degraded range land we can significantly increase the carbon stored in the soils on the order of going from say like 74 to around 100 under almost 150 in the intensive systems and it's really through these root systems which can be quite dense in Brachiaria the final point is that introducing legumes into these pastures which improves the nutrition of the livestock and it accelerates live weight gain we can do this without increasing methane production by enteric fermentation we don't reduce it the animal produces the same we can reduce the intensity the methane intensity of the crop so we're hitting all the three major gases associated with agriculture we're improving the carbon situation in these landscapes we're reducing the nitrous oxide and we're reducing the methane intensity of the livestock and that is the reason to consider investing in this technology and this approach and I insist it's a holistic approach to the system that we're trying to promote thank you thank you so our fourth presenter is going to be Henry Neufelt who is the head of Climate Change, the Climate Change Unit of the World Agroforestry Center thanks Henry okay so let's see if I can manipulate this I'll be talking about trees on farms um trees on farms or agroforestry in a more general term is a technology it's a it's a practice agricultural practice that includes trees in agricultural landscapes and there are multiple ways in which this happens now a couple of years past Leni was referring to this paper that she wrote in assessing the mitigation potential of different technologies in agriculture and in that context I estimated for this work based on a paper that Bob Zomer and a friend and colleagues had done recently oops that's wrong um what the mitigation potential of agroforestry might be globally and then based on these numbers Bob and I talked about it and then we developed this paper that was recently published here in Science Reports that shows that um agroforestry trees on farms globally we looked at the overall distribution of agriculture and the coverage of trees on these landscapes and estimated that with the biomass that different landscapes produce and based on these numbers we came up with the estimate that over the past 10 years agroforestry or trees on farms or biomass on agricultural lands have produced 0.7 gigatons of CO2 equivalent mitigation right that's huge that's like two thirds of what Leni was talking about this is only agriculture carbon dioxide which means it's finite greenhouse gas it will be renewed that is when trees are felled of course we lose this potential but if we continue expanding what we can see agroforestry being possible of doing then this provides a huge mitigation potential that contributes to addressing agriculture's role in the production of greenhouse gases and what we also saw in this fine scale analysis based on a one by one kilometer grid is that in different regions we see different dynamics, trends so this is Latin America and you can see in the Serato region there is a massive increase in biomass on agricultural soils over the past 10 years whereas in Argentina we see the reverse or let's look at Africa I'm not sure you can see it there are several countries like Sierra Leone, Guinea, Cameroon Nigeria, Tanzania Equatorial Guinea that are losing massive amounts of tree biomass in the landscape whereas Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana and Madagascar are increasing or let's look at Southeast Asia massive increase in Indonesia and some countries like Myanmar are losing very strongly these examples just here to show you that we need to look closer we can't use these analyses which give us an indication of what is possible to define policies and to invert trends where we see a decline in carbon stocks which then leads to the contribution of greenhouse gases and climate change so we know that agroforestry contributes to mitigation but actually as a system it's much much more than that it's a system that provides massive amounts of ecosystem services soil fertility insulation water protection erosion control and in higher densities biodiversity increase it improves farmers livelihoods through diversification of products it provides income in the context of market accessibility and it also increases the resilience to climate shocks because we've seen in research that by planting trees on farms farmers are able to reduce their climate risks food insecurity by around a quarter of the region where we saw that during a drought and flooding farmers were losing over a month extra in addition to their food insecurity and agroforestry was contributing to that so we can see that this system is able to improve farmers livelihoods and we need to scale it up we need to find out what the drivers are to large scale degradation and we need to do that through regionally more looking more closely at the regional scale diversity and then identifying these changes look at what are the policy drivers what are the market drivers that are leading to either positive trend or negative trends and then we need to measure the social economic political and environmental dimensions of these changes in these regions and that's the pitch I want to use the money that this that this panel of dragons has to find out in six different hotspot regions what we're going to do and how we're going to do it over the next 10 years thank you very much alright let's give it up again for our four panelists who have just given so much time and energy in their lives to researching these solutions as scientists thank you all just speaking as a young American I have more hope in you all than in really anyone in our government this time really so I'm going to call up Nate now to facilitate the next part of this cool thanks very much Den that was great so now we have the dragons den part and we have four very prestigious powerful dragons who have been saving up dragon fire for the last half an hour so I will begin by calling them up Nazir Fouad who is leading the Indonesian peatland restoration program it's initiated by the president of Indonesia he is working across 13 million hectares of land with a target to restore at least 2.5 million hectares in this area and with a commitment of over 125 million dollars Nazir, please join us thank you these dragons are very powerful so I have to make sure I get my notes right Sonja Vermoula who is an international scientist with the climate change, agriculture and food security sea calves and Sonja is representing research into practical solutions for smallholder farmers under climate change aiming to reach at least 10 million farmers in the next 10 years Sonja, thank you we have Anna Lehmann who is the vice president of policy at climate markets and investment association she's representing investors and project developers in mitigation and adaptation with approximately 400 million dollars under asset management of which 200 million is in sustainable land use and policy thank you and we have Evan Girats who is a senior scientist with SEAT the international center for tropical agriculture and Evan is working with investment planning and development partners such as the World Bank and he also sits on the steering committee of the African climate smart agricultural alliance to scaling up climate smart agricultural solutions to 6 million farming families so how this next session will work each of the dragons will provide some dragon fire some critical feedback to the four pitches that you've just heard we will then hear if there's any positive feedback the questions the dragons will if there's anything positive they may or may not have they will then they'll also talk along the lines of the most promising in terms of their context they can think and I'll help them with this the trade-offs what might be missing and how to take these forward and scale them out and then they will also decide they've promised me that this money is waiting just outside of the gates here in trucks which they will then deliver to whichever of the four they think is the most promising of these four pitches then we'll go to the audience for some questions and then we'll actually ask the audience we actually have arranged $50 million for each of the audience members to invest here as well and we'll ask you where we'll do a vote to see where you would put your money so Nazir can I start with you? Thank you, Nat Good morning everybody Yes How many minutes do we have? Nat? Maybe about 2 minutes, 2-3 minutes Well, first of course there is no single solution we have to look on the various paths that would strengthen each other of these four concepts for example I would look on social issues of the farmers I would look on the consumption in this case for example beef or another food chain and also look on the potentials of the carbon that can be reduced on the pit land I agree that it has a great potential but we don't know on the situation because now on earth we see some pit land which are still intact in many countries but also we see a lot of pit lands you have been drained drained and managed to some degree because they have legitimate land owners and managers trying their best but also they are drained area which is very badly managed and they are areas which land owners A, B and C is going down the drain so what would be the strategy of those different scenarios on the drain areas that improvement can be made of course it would be great to link it with the agroforestry practices of Pallodi culture on how the farmers, the land owners on that area can engage in restoring the pit land so reducing the greenhouse gas emissions while also producing food and so on now I would like to also have a great link with the agroforestry the Trison Fund and I would like to also look on the increased beef intake in the world with a lot of new emerging countries I think that is the scenario we cannot avoid the beef consumption in many countries increasing greatly like in China also some countries in Africa are coming up and that is the issue we have to deal with but I would like to know, I would like to get more information from you Louis on the scale that can be done in different also geographics and what kind of a policy will be coming out of that exercise of which government and investment communities can also adapt themselves so with only seven minutes I have from the pictures it is quite hard to make the decisions but I would like to have another session to go with every one of them like half an hour to talk more so at this stage well I have to say that I have great interest to talk more in the details with you Louis on the beef and the strategy with Rosa on the different scenarios of the intake pit, badly degraded and some land managers who are on top of it and with Henry particularly on the agri forestry that can go with that maybe at the lower parity with Debbie thank you thank you Nazir, thank you very much excellent and we will give each of the panels a minute to respond sort of at the end before we go back as well just in case they have any comments for the dragons Sonja, your dragon fire I assume the panelists have their armor ready at the beginning of the session I was planning to be Puff the friendly dragon but I do feel that as an investor I need to know what I'm going to get from my investment and I really didn't get that from any of the four pictures at all so for me the burning issue with mitigation in the land and agriculture sectors mitigation benefit is a global public good but what we're trying to do is harness private action to deliver that so really what I was hoping for from the pictures were some strong arguments around the kinds of incentives that we could be providing for individual farmers for companies within their supply chains to kind of drive delivery of that public good so to go through one by one Rosa, sorry, definitely at the bottom you presented the problem there's, you know, Pete stocks around the world are immense they're incredibly valuable to us as humanity you didn't tell me anything that we could really do to improve that in the future I didn't even find out technically what we might be doing let alone how you then bring in the economics and the incentives around that moving next to Louie, I thought you had some great technical pictures in there I also really did like the way that you looked beyond the purely mitigation benefits to thinking about how livestock operates holistically both at the farm level but also for us as society but nonetheless I didn't feel that I was getting the sense of you know, why would farmers now be wanting to expand their Brachiaria plantings and their pasture or something like that so my feedback to you would be to be taking that to the next level around some of those incentives there Henry, you were next you definitely went much further when you were presenting for example in the evergreen agriculture you didn't talk about it but it was up there on the screen about some of the actual models that you'd get for you gave, there were examples from across West Africa of the actual institutional ways that farmers have been encouraged to scale up this massive tree planting, that's great it's kind of getting to where we wanted at the end you did say you wanted to spend my 50 million dollars on finding out what to do which was a bit of a disappointment so that takes me on to Debbie who is definitely getting my 50 million bucks Debbie so you did have a good roadmap there you were really thinking about the incentives for the individual landowners you weren't necessarily saying what they were yet but you were drawing attention to the use of the whole market to provide the kind of market signals and enabled by policy that we're going to need at a global level so your pitch didn't go as far but definitely was going more in that direction of how do we incentivize large scale private action to create global public goods, thank you thank you Sonia, wow there's some smoke in the room I feel we may need to open up a window fantastic and Anna, please that made me shiver I don't want to pitch anything over to you we've scared the dragons scared you pointed it all out if we talk about leveraging private sector capital we need to think about revenue streams how are you going to pay back that loan whether that's coming through a bond we've heard lots about forest bonds and these kind of things coming up it's just a way to package that ultimately somebody gives you money and you've got to pay it back so how are you going to do that that's one of the key questions everybody will have to answer but I think for certain products we do have a problem because we can't value we can't assign a value to peatlands for example if I'm starting now with Rosa we all sense and know that they're extremely relevant for us and we do know we should keep them in the ground and we should keep growing them again but how help us to assign a value to those so that also at a decentralized level that local governments and national governments understand what is the value of the ecosystem services that those peatlands deliver so that they can include that in their you know potentially natural capital accounting methods that they might be thinking about that they can also start assigning costs to certain activities that reduce the delivery of those services extremely important for us to start working with moving over to Deborah I can't stress enough this is really I think it's you really hit the nail on the head there it's so important to start speaking about mainstreaming of soil conservation practices especially in high intensity agricultural production systems and by targeting the US and especially the Midwest you're going where you have to go so the ambition if you succeed we will succeed on the planet because you've got a warm coat because people you'll have to start talking to is the fertilizer industry you've got to break that myth that nitrogen fertilizer is the solution to save the planet and to produce the food of the world there's lots of people in the world that do believe that it's a back offer especially after the financial crisis in 2007-2008 when land became a much more traded asset the fertilizer industry capitalized on that and started building new plants they haven't been written off those guys want to still make money and they're still going to keep telling you honey this is not going to feed our world and you need to be ready for that and if you need friends then come talk to us but it's a tough one although but the link to recycling extremely important and I think there are technologies out there and there is business cases is hard in Germany we have a relatively good recycling infrastructure where we try to do that to take organic waste from households and bring them back on to lands they're publicly funded so the investment case I'm not seeing it very clearly but I do see and I do sense that we need to address that speak about true costs to fertilizer that might be the way to go forward though because it's highly subsidized as we all know it's highly energy intensive natural nitrogen fertilizer reservoirs in Chile are running out so you know those products should actually have a the true price should be allocated to those and that might also create a more level playing field for composting and recycling technologies so yeah spot on there not investable yet but you know we'll follow you meet of course you know is one of those products that we'll have to start looking at so it's extremely relevant I think what you do I'd be interested to hear more about you know at what scale is the research what lengths you know what time series timelines do you actually have and what scale in terms of rolling out do you have sort of is that already in an investable phase that you can take this forward any other economic criteria we should take into consideration is it a really is it a new crop is it genetically modified is it something that actually fits into the cropping cycles any other impact really important for us to understand because we're quite nervous about introducing something somewhere else that might not be working on the long run so haven't bought into yet entirely but of course protein demand is very high and we need to think of more sustainable ways of producing meat really Henry agroforestry yes and all those you know diversifying production systems generally speak in very important but I think so far we still need to you know there's much to do in getting the investment environment right for those kind of production systems so we need very basic things we spoke you know land use it's uncertainty on the fact that or for the fact that those little investments will be actually also well will be directed to areas where communities and where people have rights to their land and will be able to able to produce their continuously that's extremely important at building market infrastructure and also when you look at markets look at domestic markets don't just look at the world market you know world markets can be quite hostile things but how do you produce something how do you store something where do you store where do you get the energy storage the energy to keep that product cool and to transport it to the nearest markets give us some ideas around that and maybe you know the infrastructure investment around that will actually deliver then the revenue rather than the product itself and yeah that's it I'll leave it there and sorry last question I'll push you where would you put your money where I put my money right dear you know as yeah as a very bad investor it's got to go with the meat well okay great thank you Evan okay I'll say that from a high level I was very excited by everything that I saw that was presented feeling like there's a lot of potential opportunity a lot that can be done but then I think everything that the dragon so far the smoke that's been blown I completely agree with and to me it's about as an investor where is the return on what I would get and how does this really work on the ground again at the high level I think the numbers are there and in most cases I think there's some maybe Lou in particular with the livestock seeing what Brachiaria what kind of forages could do at the global level which I saw in the others kind of putting the scale of the solution out there would be nice to see but then feeling like how do the communities come in how do the people who are actually going to be implementing this on the ground come in what's the business model that really works to get them the incentives there to really get them to implement what needs to be implemented on the ground and then the accountability so that as an investor I get my money back in the end going through each quickly the peatlands it seems like a very important issue certainly it clearly is but then what is that business model one of the things that came up to me was it seemed like some of these areas I don't know all of them from the global map but there can be conflict there there's how do you know really what's going on on the ground how do you monitor this how do you ensure that what you're promoting is actually going to happen and engaging the communities there I think is very important with the livestock plus the forages brachiaria the delivery mechanism of the forages to the farmer the adoption of the farmer getting them to actually want to plant that how do you turn that into a market itself in terms of the value chain of the forage itself Deborah I really like the roadmap I think to me of everything that I saw I think that was the most compelling as far as at least all the pieces I think were there in terms of what needs to be done not that it's ready necessarily right now bankable but I like the pieces and I think the others could come there but I think there's a lot of questions in terms of even in the U.S. getting large farmers to change what they do they're already doing they have the money it's not like they presume with other minds to be able to do what's profitable to them so it's about turning the incentives to get them to do what we want them to do and Henry with agroforestry I think a lot of opportunity there but again I think of the discount rate in terms of when you plant something when you get the the value back the return on the investment from both the farmer and the investor again what are the business models there that would work for an investor and seeing some more about that but I think certainly more to be pursued there and to me if I were to end I would say what I was saying about what Debra and the soils carbon perspective presented in terms of that roadmap that could be brought into all of these and in some ways I would like to put my money into developing that in all of these and then seeing keeping the rest in some safe bonds and when I see the business model then I'll invest but I think right now I'll go with what was proposed great thank you very much so now we have approximately 15 minutes where we'd like to do some participation from the audience really get your feedback and thoughts and questions so we'll open questions up to of course the dragons but also to the panelists I don't know would the panelists like a minute to respond or do you think we're okay to jump to questions I think we'll just jump to questions because otherwise I think we'll get in too much of a back and forth so we'll save that for lunch so some questions from the audience do we have anybody with some questions great we've got one somebody could help me run a mic would you mind great thank you so much just give us your name and organization please as an investor I'm just bit worried about the risk of my investment so I'm sort of wondering like what the climate risks would be for instance if investing in agroforestry it works in the present climate but what does the future climate hold for it if I'm looking at a 10, 15, 20 year timeline and in that geography is there going to be increased temperature or what changes are predicted and how risky is my investment in those contexts and that probably apply to some of the other examples as well so we'll take a couple questions at once so I've got over here I'll give you that one so Henry if you could bank that one for agroforestry and we'll pass that around as well thank you Jason Fung from center for carbon removal sort of piggybacking on that topic I think I mean this is a super interesting and fun exercise and I appreciate this approach to thinking about how we can stimulate investment and it struck me that I mean and all of these initiatives I thought were amazing and worth supporting one of the things that occurred to me during the event was that you know we have these different perspectives on the risks I think their investors are going to have a different risk tolerance and profile than the people were asking to actually do these practices and particularly when we're thinking about small holder farmers and ones who are the most vulnerable they really can't afford to take on very much risk so this is their livelihood these are their families that disconnect and risk tolerance is something that I think is an area worth looking into and figuring out how can we manage that risk and not put more of the risk onto the people who are asking to do these particular practices and that might be itself a thing to think about for financial instruments to try to address great thank you and I think him next and then I'll come over to this side and I'll do this first three Tim Tenekite from Unique Forest in Lentiers I have first a question what kind of investment we are talking about is it public, private what is the risk return profile expected so this is one question we have to keep in mind secondly I feel all these propositions are not mutually exclusive and when you think about an investment you make either an investment in an organization a person so they deliver because they have a track record or you have to see the project on the ground the investment type where all these things can come together then if we are talking about the on the ground activities it's always a question again if it's smallholder how are they brought together how they're linked through the value chain are they linked through community organizations and if it's large investors or land owners to see what long term sustainability possibilities perspective they have so my gut feeling is at the moment it would be very difficult to decide where to put the money but I thought the responses were very clear and straight and I think this is very helpful for the discussion what are the open points that need to be addressed great thank you I'm going to stop there and then we'll capture the other two questions that I've got over here and maybe some more and I see some more hands going up and I'm just cognizant of time so I'm going to direct those instead of asking everybody to respond but just to some key people here so Henry could you fill the first one thank you so thanks for raising that issue and I believe that it's not only relevant for agroforestry the fact that changing climates in the future will affect the crops the pastures the trees that we're working in I presume that trees might be more sustainable or resilient to climate shocks in their own right because they to a lesser degree depend on irrigation and so I think the answer here would be that we need to look at every case situation and find the right trees for the right place or the right crop pasture for the right place and to see how that plays out in the future and our expectations around climate change but I'd like to also sort of say a few words about the investor risk and I appreciate in particular Sonya's rebuff of not having spoken about the institutional and the policy frameworks for time reasons I must admit that it's we do need to look at every place in a specific way and if we want to see the change that we were envisaging we can't just come across with a one size fits all approach and that's the main message here and that's why I think it's important that we go to the ground and find these hotspots of change and identify what needs to be done there and that's what we're talking about the small older farmers what are their risks what how can we ensure that they adopt these measures and that's not an easy answer we don't have a single answer for that right away and certainly not in seven minutes thank you great thanks very much Debbie did you want to say something about this investor topic because the roadmap that I presented actually there's the more complete cover so many of the details you guys were asking for but it's a very elaborate roadmap developed with dozens of stakeholders in that particular place and in the U.S. we're looking at private company investors General Mills invested in developing the roadmap in the first place and we're looking at incentive structures switched through changing the insurance regime so that would be sort of that would also be the private sector changing the way it incentivized farmers changing the way insurance farm insurance was produced and that's very much a U.S. sort of a model through that type of investment and through legal frameworks that would help farmers you know the land users who are not the land owners actually get some benefit through changing their practices so this is much more of a private investment sort of an entry point for the U.S. and that may not be appropriate at all for small older farmers in Kenya or Tanzania so I think it really does depend on the situation but the elements of a roadmap understanding the incentives for farmers and understanding what science is totally lacking and the policy that's lacking to support those incentives I think that's sort of a more generic roadmap that could be used regardless of who's investing great thanks I know we've got some other questions you wanted to briefly great and just if you could just be quick as possible I'll be very quick so I mean there was the question about the long-term sustainability of a lot of these solutions as we were confronted with climate change and that's certainly an issue we need to take into account if you're talking about the 10 to 15 to 20 year time horizon we actually need a different type of analysis than what science is routinely producing which is you know horizon 2070 or horizon 2100 and we're only now starting to get to this medium-term variability for example the western Amazon is probably 10 years into a 30 year drying cycle right now these things have not been really worked out well even in the IPCC reports we have different approaches coming on from the downscaling of GCMs and we're now getting to the point where science can actually begin to provide some of those insights and hopefully investors will be now approaching the scientists and trying to understand what we're doing on those aspects to be able to factor that in you know this whole thing is I think asking scientists to produce the whole business case and dealing with some of Tim's comments on the different perspectives is really important we are probably not the best people to make the business case because we're not investors we don't have the eye of an investor in the types of analysis we're doing the return on investment depends upon where you are in the Amazon in Colombia or the Yanos in Colombia the returns on investment are going to be different and so I think we need more of a partnership with our colleagues in the financial industry to put these issues together we can bring in that you know when you want to know about climate variability and how science can tell us we can help you reduce your uncertainty at this level you know tell us where the highest uncertainty is to make this an investable program and then we can go back and work on our data and try and develop those knowledge products this is where I think we need the partnership and that's where we're going to make this connection on the points that Tim raised with the difference in perspectives intolerance for risk is being able to reduce that risk across the board for the different types of people who are asking to do things differently fantastic thanks I've got three more questions which probably doesn't more here but I'll go to Michael first hi Michael Hovel from Marchman Communications a scientist I imagine you're mostly concerned about sort of learning and keeping up with a changing context so I was wondering if you had any insights any of you about how you handle the constant learning versus the doing what we already know so the sort of the feedback from what we know versus how you actually do it and how you balance that and as scientists is that your job or is it your job to just inform other groups to do it and how that works great so if you guys could bank that and I'll ask for a volunteer in a moment thank you I'm Lawrence from Uganda a member of parliament and also chairperson of the Parliamentary Forum on Climate Change should we focus on soil carbon in peatland or we should focus on pollinators because most farmers are getting discouraged because of your low yield because of lack of pollinators because we are promoting more of crop farming I need that answer number two is what role do you think the policymakers can play because they're involved in legislation, budgeting and also oversight thank you great thank you and I've got one over here I have more of a quick comment than a question while I think this is really fun to have this sort of format for a session and much more exciting than any other sessions I've attended I just want us to be aware that investment is only one way to change landscapes and that looking through the investment lens for me I also pose certain challenges because it puts a big pressure big profit pressure on any kind of project in order to be able to repay and that might not be the best approach for all sorts of all kind of measures that can be taken on that so I just want us to all be aware that that also has some sort of threats related to it absolutely thank you okay maybe I'll let everyone think for a second Anna do you want to just speak on that profit pressure just that one the last one absolutely yeah I couldn't agree more you know I mean this is where my heart is I wish we just wouldn't speak about money but you know the value of landscape for all of us but sadly the world does not work like that at the moment you know and if we just I mean I don't really know where to start but for example just looking at how fast land acquisitions are taking place and not just foreign but also domestic larger companies come into countries just purchase land you know and governments issue concessions and that goes tremendously you know mainly driven by you know revenue expectations on the basis of you know agriculture commodity prices and this so we're dealing at a you know at a micro economic level we're dealing with a situation where a farmer can get that's my latest number four to five thousand US dollars gross margin profit net profit from a rubber plantation in Southeast Asia compared to an agroforestry system you know I mean if you go to feed your family if I would have to feed my family on the basis of that hector you know I'd need to have a lot of convincing and a lot of support to not go there I'm not saying we you know this is the only way but I think we need to have you guys doing your signs and deliver us the data and the argument so that at least we can show what the value is of these other services and how we can then also just cost other products services the right way you know because I do think that they do come at a tremendous cost to society but before been living on you know on those distorting subsidies that made sugar very cheap for us that made meat cheap for us and they affected our diets you know so we need to think about that as well what do we eat and how do we eat yeah I'll just leave with them thank you and Sonia did you come on please just bring us back to real landscapes and real places as a way of addressing several of the points that have been raised I'm really strongly with Henry here I think that for example as scientists Michael we're often asked by organizations such as the World Bank you know what's the big winner idea that can be implemented everywhere in the world it doesn't actually work like that that real progress and real investment is in terms of landscapes going to be about places that are facing multiple problems and have multiple groups of people with a stake in that which then draws me into thinking about what are some of the investment models that are emerging let's think about opportunity here investment models that are emerging to actually deal with the kinds of risks around landscapes better and what I'm seeing all over the place and I'm finding really encouraging are these very strong partnership models so for example the round table and sustainable palm oil now is experimenting in Sabah in Malaysia with a jurisdictional approach to certification so that you have multiple suppliers working together in the area so you can actually deal with some of the landscape level biodiversity water management and so on issues rather than and that allows small holders to have some kind of a greater access and sharing of the risk associated similarly I was in a conversation yesterday being told about the the surge and blended finance models so for example in resolving dairy issues in Kenya bringing together finance from the off-taker to support progress by the small holders and public money also going into that to achieve this mix of more efficient supply chain with for example greenhouse gas mitigation benefits there are a lot more of those but they happen with real places and real value chains it's not like let's do brilliant dairy everywhere and finally there are a lot of opportunities with business at the global scale so World Business Council and Sustainable Development is doing this it's having new landscape initiatives trying to bring different companies together around shared landscape level problems we've also just come out of a World Economic Forum meeting where they're talking about doing the a hundred sustainable landscapes initiative of showcasing a hundred examples around the world of this kind of concerted shared partnership effort around investment so just want to talk here and end up my my spiel with the opportunity as opposed to just the problems and the challenges thanks great thank you Nazir did you have any about the investment and financing I think there are a lot of thoughts out there to combine public financing to combine commercial financing and also impact financing and also partly grants for developing countries more and more donors talking to us for some Indonesia that please use our grants as part of the financing scheme of course with no interest with actually even if there is no return at all fine is it becomes like a guarantee of certain percentage of loss of the investment so I think this is go beyond I mean we're not talking about what specific finance is only commercial is only I think we have to go beyond that now the investors are fine to have different financing come together and also with the public financing which are very low interest rate as well as the grant thank you Nazir thank you very much we do have one hanging question an important one about pollinators and so I will ask Debbie to take care of that yeah thanks that's a great great question I'm glad you brought it up like why is nature conservancy working with corn growers anyway I mean we're interested in preserving natural ecosystems but one reason we are is that soil and investing in productivity including carbon sequestration is one of the key entry points we see for conserving nature also by halting the the spread of agricultural production into our natural areas so that's that's one of the major global challenges that the whole world is facing how do we actually halt the spread of tilled agriculture into natural areas which is what the pollinators are depending on and we think one of the important entry points is soil health and improving productivity of our systems and before we go to thanks as we promised we have 50 million dollars set up for each of you to invest and the room is wired with a new technology that as soon as you raise your hand international wire transfer goes right into the the panelists bank accounts exactly yes of course they're institutional bank accounts so I will ask first for a raise of hands where would you or who would in peatlands and wetlands three four okay so we've got about four 200 million going in there it's not bad okay for soil organic carbon okay I'm going to say about 15 or 16 excellent thank you very much trees on farms agroforestry okay one two yeah trees great and uh grasslands livestock okay that's good yes you invest in yourself great and oh yeah okay and a diversified portfolio across all of them oh there we go that's the easy one okay the soft question okay very good okay I'd like you to please join me in thanking all the speakers and the panelists the dragons thank you very much very stimulating session and I hope you have a great day and I look forward to seeing you all thanks