 Welcome, everybody, to U.S. Institute of Peace's event, Pakistan's Post-Pandemic Economic Outlook. My name is the Manas Al-Kadine. I'm director of our South Asia programs at USIP. And it's a pleasure for you all to join us here virtually. The United States Institute of Peace is a national, nonpartisan, independent institute founded by Congress and dedicated to the proposition that a world without violent conflict is possible, practical, and essential for U.S. and global security. We're very excited that you all can join us today for this event, looking at Pakistan's economic outlook. The COVID-19 pandemic, as you all know, has been a blow to many economies around the world. And in particular, it is a very difficult time for Pakistan, which had already slowed down in terms of economic growth considerably after experiencing a twin deficit crisis in 2018. It's also an interesting time, because with the new Biden administration coming in the United States, Pakistan is also seeking to redefine its bilateral relationship with the United States on geo-economic terms, trying to shift away from what is largely geo-strategic terms over the last several decades. So we have an exciting panel today who will be discussing what's going on in Pakistan in terms of the economic outlook, how they're trying to restart the economy, change things around, work with the IMF, and rebuild relationships with the United States. So on our panel, we have Khurram Hussain is going to kick off. He is probably the most knowledgeable and famous economic journalist in Pakistan today. He works for the prominent newspaper, Dawn. He's written for a host of publications. We're very happy to have him and his insights here today. We look forward to hearing from him. We also have Safiyah Gori Ahmad, who's currently director for the South Asia practice at McLarty and Associates. And she has spent a lot of time in business development in South Asia, Southeast Asia, East Asia, but previously served both on Senate Foreign Relations Committee and in the State Department, working on Pakistan and other countries in the region. And we also are joined by Naila Nakhvi, the founder and CEO of Pi in the Sky. It's a renowned cafe in Karachi. If any of you are in Karachi, you should definitely check it out. She founded it in 2001 and after several years of working in the hotel management industry. And today Pi in the Sky has 20 branches across Karachi and Hatharab and employees over 200 people. And from Naila, we're really excited to actually hear the on the ground, small business story in terms of Pakistan's economic growth. I'm also very happy to welcome today Uzair Yunus as our moderator. He has recently joined USIP as a visiting senior policy analyst. Uzair is a, we're very happy to have him join our team and he himself is very knowledgeable on the Pakistani economy. And so without further ado, I'd like to turn it over to Uzair to moderate this interesting discussion on what we see going forward in Pakistan. Thanks so much. Thank you for that introduction, Taman. And I think we should just jump right in. I'll start with Khurram and then go to Naila and then Safia for an international perspective on what's going on and what the outlook is. But Khurram, starting with you, we've really had an action pack seven to 10 days in Pakistan. The IMF program is resuming. We had a change of guard at the finance ministry. Then a signal that Pakistan was going to resume trade ties with India and then a signal that it was not going to move forward on that. And then the upcoming budget issues related to taxation and tax to GDP targets. But also on the flip side, you have the government saying that the economy is coming back strongly and that indicators like cement production, seed production, et cetera are on their way up. So how do you see things developing in Pakistan and what's your take on overall macro outlook for Pakistan and its economy? Thanks for that, Uzair. And thank you also for that very generous introduction that I've received over here. Let me just start off by saying I'm especially pleased to be on a panel with Naila Latvi because high in the skies, brown bread and croissants have been a fixture in my house for many, many years now. So thanks for that, Naila. And regarding the economic crossroads that Pakistan is currently standing on, I'll say all the items that you mentioned are next, as you well know. And the actual moment, as you said, Pakistan is the past seven days have been action packed over here because it seems as if we are at a pivotal moment but there is a spoiler at play during that pivotal moment. If you just look at the sequence of events over the past, let's say one week or 10 days, basically from about March 24th, 23rd till today, Pakistan's IELF program one board approval in March 25th on the back of the commitments that were made in this IELF program. Pakistan approached the private capital markets and floated a Euro bond on March 30th, I think it was. And one day before the bond floatation, the finance minister who had signed the document was in fact fired. And the finance minister who had done the road shows for the Euro bonds were fired. And on the day of the Euro bond, the first batch of IELF agreement arrived, $500 million. So $3 billion were lifted from the creditors after the board agreement at the board for the IELF program. And right after that, or at pretty much the same time, the person, the key person who had made those commitments was fired and replaced by somebody else, some others who in his maiden press conference actually said that these commitments that have been made to the IELF can be reviewed. And went on to say that the government's economic direction going forward is going to be pro-poor, not necessarily deficit fighting, which is what the IELF program aims at, which tends to hurt the poor rather than pro-poor. And then even went on to say to Dalute, the commitments that the government might put behind the critical state bank commitment bill by saying, well, we've introduced it to parliament, we have met our commitment to the IELF because the commitment only extended to introducing that bill. From here onwards, we will let parliament have its way, which means that at least I read those words to mean that they're not going to put a particularly strong push behind that bill. And it could stand to be watered down significantly as it moves through public. So what's going on? The way I see this is that the government is now getting full seats about implementing the very stiff conditions that have been agreed to in the IELF, with the IELF in the latest program, and has decided very, very abruptly to switch forces in the middle of the state, right after the commitment summit, and the new finance minister starts pointing in an altogether different direction from the 1.2 and the fund. Number one. Number two, shortly after the finance minister, shortly after Hamad Azhar said this, suddenly word began to circulate from very strong quarters that Hamad Azhar himself may be replaced by Shaukatari, somebody who's not known for implementing pro-poor policy. In fact, the last time he was brought in as finance advisor with the ministerial power back in, I think, 2009, it was. Incidentally, back then he had also replaced Hafeez Sher. No, sorry, Hafeez Sher had replaced him right after. But that was also when Pakistan was about to implement a very, very stiff IMS program. And Shaukatari basically saw the implementation of that program. So it seems as if some kind of a tussle is taking place within the government of Pakistan about the future economic direction the country must follow. And it would be very interesting to drill a little bit deeper into this tussle to find out who are the competing factions and what is the advice that they are tendering. But at the moment, it appears that at the highest levels in the government of Pakistan, there are more than, there are at least two opinions about which direction to take. One of them leads towards the elections that are now in view for many of the MNAs of the PTI. And the other direction leads towards a resumption of the fund program and seeing it through to completion along with relevant structural reforms. The two of these cannot go hand in hand for very long. They can to a certain extent, we dovetail together but a point will come that they've been necessarily diverged. We can discuss that later as well if you wish. But that crossroads is where we stand right now and how this whole tussle dissolves itself is what we will be looking for in the days to come. So very quickly, we'll just take one minute to tell you what I will be looking for in the days to come. I have three things on my mind. Number one, I'm waiting to see when the IMF uploads the memorandum on economic and financial policy. The document that contains the details on the commitments that Pakistan has given to the IMF. That document will tell us about the fiscal deficit target that has been set, the revenue measures and the incremental revenue effort that needs to be mounted the next international reserve targets that have been set, the public debt reduction path that has been committed to and all that. It will give us an idea of how steep these commitments really are and how far the commitments on the structural reforms go. And power tariffs, the automaticity of power tariffs envisioned in the Amendment to the NEPRA Act as well as the state bank's amendment bill. How far is the government committed to seeing these through or to what extent is it the government's commitment to only introduce these in parliament and then let the will of the parliament decide what to do? That document will tell us. Joseb, you might notice it's been March 24th, I think, since board approval happened. In normal times, the document is uploaded within days after the board approval. It has been well over 10 days now and we have not yet seen the document. So I'm curious as to the delay. Is the IMF also sitting back and waiting to see how things resolve themselves here at home in Pakistan before uploading those commitments and making them public? Last I asked them directly, their answer was no, it's just like COVID and the spin meetings have delayed things a little bit, but we'll get them up as soon as possible. But I've never, I can't remember the last time I saw a 10-day long delay in making those documents public after board approval, after the release of the project. Number two, I'll be looking to see who is really going to be the finance minister. Who will be in the driving seat? Will it be Hamad or will it be Shaukatari instead? And the third thing then obviously is once the dust has settled on that front and we know who is in the driving seat going forward, who's the captain of the ship going forward? Is to ask them, how strongly do they stand behind the commitments that have been given to the IMF or to what extent do they envision a change of course? Once all three of these things have been addressed, then we will have a clearer picture of what direction Pakistan's economic outlook is heading to. Ozer. Thank you for that Khurram and for that overall macro view. I have some questions on all these three things that you mentioned. And I think those are the things that we should watch out for. Before we do that, I would love some input from Naila here who's joining us as well from a micro perspective. Naila, from, you know, on the economic front, things were not that great before the pandemic began a little over a year ago. Small businesses were hurt tremendously. And of course, now with these commitments that have been made, particularly on the taxation side, things will, and on the electricity side, it is expected that businesses will struggle. So help us understand what it was like on your side as an entrepreneur, as an employer of over 200 people, what it was like to go through the pandemic and even now with a third wave coming in. And what would you like to see as a business owner, the government of Pakistan and its policies to go towards in order to have a recovery that is not only sustainable, but equitable as well? Azair, thank you for having me. Just one clarification. Pine the sky actually employs over 400 people. So, you know, so the impact is even greater. I think the majority, obviously worldwide, the majority of medium-sized businesses were and in some cases remain badly affected by the measures put in place to try and contain the pandemic. You know, most SMEs in Pakistan work in a very competitive environment and find it difficult to build up reserves. You know, it's very difficult to build up reserves while also growing the business at the same time. So consequently, we do rely very heavily on, you know, our cash flows to meet expenses. So, you know, it has been extremely, extremely difficult. It's been extremely tough. And you know, Pine the sky, as I said, operates primarily in the food retail sector, which worldwide has been one of the hardest hit by the complete shutdown that has happened, you know, globally and especially also in Pakistan in sort of March of last year. So it's been extremely, it's been extremely trying. It's been extremely difficult. As a business owner, I think it's probably one of the most challenging phases that I think anybody obviously has had to go through. You know, the government did come up with a few sort of schemes. The state bank did come up with a few schemes initially, whereby they gave sort of, you know, loans to, you know, sort of help to retain staff on, you know, sort of easy repayment terms and also with sort of no interest rates. So I didn't avail that. I preferred not to, but I know of a lot of companies that did and I know that did help them sort of, you know, ride the wave a little bit. So that was very useful. The other thing which the government again with the sort of state bank did was the, you know, a temporary economic relief financing scheme that they initiated again with easy repayment terms, which I think a lot of has helped people sort of, you know, even despite the pandemic, sort of invest back in their businesses because, you know, the interest rates again have been very low. So, you know, I think overall, yeah, it is a third wave. It's going to be tough, you know, but the food in Pakistan at least, you know, the only sort of one of the main sources of entertainment that people have is food, you know. So, you know, in that way, I'm sort of relatively lucky also, you know, that I am part of that sector, but it's been extremely, extremely difficult as well. Yes, when you talked about taxation and the sort of, you know, the rates, your energy rates that have gone up and all that is something that is extremely worrying. It's been extremely tough. I think, you know, I don't know what to be worried about right now, whether to be worried about sort of just sort of riding the pandemic and seeing it through or what we're going to be hit with at, you know, when the government decides to implement whatever, you know, is deemed necessary by them. So it's, you know, it's not been an easy year and I don't foresee it easing up anytime soon, depending on what, you know, policies or what is put in place based on what the government decides quite honestly, you know. But I mean, I will say though that, you know, obviously, you know, the pandemic was a shock to all businesses, but I think the way, you know, that we have kind of bounced back to a great extent also highlights the resilience of Pakistan's retail sector to a great extent. You know, it depends on, I suppose, which sector we're looking at, but you know, I think, you know, it's sometimes I think Pakistan's economy is quite an anomaly. It's sort of, you know, you see sort of, if you go out, you sort of see it's almost as business as usual, even though there is a global pandemic. So, you know, it's sometimes, you know, you really wonder how it works. It's quite, it's fascinating. It's very fascinating actually, you know. Thank you for that and I agree with you that it is fascinating and in many ways, the Pakistani consumer at least remains able to, at least on the upper middle class level, remains able to spend a lot of money and we're seeing some of that even reflected in, for example, vehicle sales and things like that. So I would love to dive deeper into, you know, some of the stuff you mentioned, particularly around not availing the financing schemes by the state bank, but before I do that, I would love to bring in Safiya into this conversation as well. And Safiya, over the last few weeks now, I mentioned at the outset the last few days have been action-packed, but from an international point of view, the last few weeks have been action-packed in terms of this pivot towards your economics that has been communicated by the Pakistani government. The Islamabad Security Dialogue obviously was sort of the roadshow to bring that perspective out to the rest of the world. We've seen the Pakistani stock more and more about connectivity, including regional connectivity. And I would love to hear your thoughts on, given that you work with international companies and given that you're plugged into the DC circuit here, how has this narrative shift been received and what is it that international companies and even from your point of view, Pakistan needs to do more off to not only just have this narrative be a narrative, but actually be something tangible that changes the course of the Pakistani economy. Thanks, Azair. And thanks, Thamannaa and Nyla, and Khurram, it's a pleasure to participate on this panel with you all. So, Azair, like you mentioned, I'll start off with just sort of talking a little bit about the dynamics of the US-Pakson economic relationship, but also maybe the sort of shift towards geo-economics and maybe away from the geo-strategic geopolitical lens that the US-Pakson relationship has been in. And then maybe sort of delve into what I call my list of issues that we hear over and over again from US companies and investors, multinational investors that we hear over and over again who either are interested in doing business in Pakistan but face hurdles or are actively doing business in Pakistan and face hurdles. So I'll share sort of my compilation of the best, a list of the best that with you as well. So I'll start off a bit on the US-Pakson economic relationship. And I think there's been ongoing dialogue about strengthening the economic relationship over the years. And I think many of us who've watched the government to government relationship can attest that it's the same sort of we want to expand trade and we want to do more between the US and Pakistan. And maybe we've seen a little bit more in the recent months. There was recently a call between Secretary Blinken and Foreign Minister Shaman Mugreshi which referenced you expanding trade and commercial ties. And both Secretary Blinken and President Biden are no strangers to Pakistan, but they do see Pakistan from that sort of national security geopolitical geostrategic lens. So it will be sort of an obstacle for Pakistan to make that shift away. And on the economic side, we can't sort of talk about this without noting that China is the elephant in the room and US officials have repeatedly spoken about how Pakistan would benefit more by cooperating with the US than depending solely on China. And the pitfalls of CPAC are that China-Pakistan economic corridor projects have been highlighted on a number of these sort of bilateral exchanges by US officials. And I think on the US side, there is growing concern about China's influence in the region. So I think that's sort of the broader lens of the US-Pakistan relationship and China being a little bit of the spoiler there. But Pakistan has publicly reiterated its support for CPAC, but it hasn't really declined that there is this important US-Pakistan economic relationship and that it seeks important economic ties with US companies. So I think that's there. And I think that should definitely be reiterated, but there's still this conversation which is very much at a higher level of yes, these sectors should be prioritized and we should begin to identify the areas of cooperation. And I think having worked in government maybe 10, 15 years ago that conversation is still happening. And sometimes I'm wondering if maybe that conversation is better served for not in the government to government space, but rather from the private sector to be pushing for those conversations. So like you mentioned, is there a lot has been in the recent months spoken about this sort of shift towards geoeconomics and Pakistan's focus from geopolitics. And I think that the real issue there is that Pakistan really has to reach some sort of understanding with Washington on the strategic and security issues. And I don't, I really do hope that there's not this conversation taking place that is totally misguided where you've got US officials coming in and talking about sort of Afghanistan and the counter-terrorism issues. And Pakistan's legitimate desire to have the economic conversations but they're going completely sideways and across from each other. And I think there sometimes may be a clash from Washington's own objectives and Islamabad's objectives and it could be on what this shift looks like. And for that to happen, for Pakistan really to talk about geoeconomics and emphasize economic cooperation, they have to enhance the value, their value as an economic partner, which means they have to strengthen their economy. And I'll get to sort of the nuts and bolts of sort of the issues that US investors see. So I do want to highlight just a little bit on, Pakistan is currently the US's 56th largest goods trading partner with 6.6 billion in total two-way trade last year. And I just want to, just as comparison, just for comparison's sake, India is currently the US's ninth largest trading partner. So when Pakistan talks about, why aren't we given the same level of importance or why is USTR not paying attention to us on trade agreements or trade policies or PACs? It actually has to do with the numbers. It has to do with how much there's a flow of goods across borders. It has to do about what the trade deficit looks like. And when you compare apples to oranges, it's a different comparison between the two. So maybe I'll shift a little bit to some of the issues that we see from US investors. And despite sort of a relatively foreign investment regime and what do I mean when I say a relatively open foreign investment regime, Pakistan's FDI laws in terms of how foreign investors can actually invest in different sectors is relatively open compared to other regions. So in India, there's FDI caps on all kinds of sectors which is shifting, but Pakistan doesn't have that. But despite that, there's still all kinds of barriers for companies who are looking to do business. And the businesses that I work with, the US companies, what comes up over and over is, and when we present to them, hey, there's this opportunity in Pakistan which we think you should take a look at is the risk. And companies don't like taking risks. They want to mitigate risk and they calculate the risk as much as possible. And what are these risks that we're talking about? One is Pakistan is still on the fat of gray list. This comes up quite often. And Pakistan was originally based on the fat of gray list in 2018 due to failure to comply with requirements such as regulating money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism. The last thing a US company wants is to be on the front page of the Washington Post or the New York Times because they were operating in a country that their funds were misappropriated or laundered in some way or were financing terrorism in some way. And so they're very concerned about the fat of gray list. So that becomes the immediate red flag. And I know that Pakistan has been taking legislative measures to sort of ensure that they're able to get off the gray list and I think that's all great progress. But this continues to come up and industries which rely on online payment systems and online money transfers and e-commerce platforms and financial payment platforms are really hesitant to invest in Pakistan because of the fat of gray list. So that's sort of one issue that comes up. The second issue that we hear over and over again is the high tariff and tax rates but at the import stage but also overall inconsistent tax policies at the provincial level to the federal level inconsistencies and how taxes and tariffs are collected at this stage of import and then how they're collected later at the time of sale and how those taxes and tariffs are difficult to recoup because a lot of these times businesses are unable to recoup those taxes at the point of sale. And so they're losing money sometimes 35 to 40% on goods that are imported into Pakistan because of the high tariff rates. So that's another big obstacle. The third thing I wanted to mention is the importance of a stronger manufacturing sector. Now, why do I mention this? Is because for Pakistan to be a part of a diversified supply chain it really must, the missing piece of the puzzle is that they must get more goods out to markets. That's just plain and simple. And when we talk about major e-commerce platforms the Amazons, all of these companies when they think about the role of that Pakistan can play and how integral Pakistan can be as a part of their supply chain this came up actually maybe a year or two ago when the 301 tariffs were impacting US businesses who were bringing in goods from China. And so many US companies were looking at alternative markets in South and Southeast Asia to diversify their supply chains. And they were looking at Vietnam. They were looking at Malaysia. They were looking at India. They were looking at markets that where we have free trade agreements. They were looking at markets that were easy to get goods in and out. And Pakistan was not one of those. And I think in order to really integrate itself into a growing manufacturing sector in the global value chain it has to be a part of this manufacturing sector. And it still lags behind way behind other countries in the region. So that's sort of my third point. The fourth point is the sort of delays and lengthy dispute resolution processes that we see in Pakistan. So India had the same issue and they've sort of started these fast track special commercial courts whether it's for bankruptcy and those sorts of resolving a speedy dissolution of companies or whether it's for sort of resolving issues that are IP issues or commercial issues companies don't wanna be stuck in court for years and years on end which oftentimes happens in Pakistan just because of long delays in the judicial system. And then the last two issues is the repatriation of funds. We've heard over and over again from US companies that have their money stuck literally stuck in Pakistan. So they've invested it. They've been working on a project and then they try to pull their money back and for some reason whether it's an archaic law or they're unable to get the release from the state bank the money ends up being stuck in Pakistan. And this is sort of a big red flag for other companies who if they are unable to move their assets in and out of the country really see Pakistan as a red flag for investing. And then finally what I'll say is they don't see enough investment and incentivization for R&D. And I think in order for Pakistan to evolve into a self-reliant economy the way you've seen, when we hear Modi talk about making India when we hear a self-reliant India and even India doesn't do enough investment in research and development but research and development is critical. And this ties into the ecosystem for startups because essentially the quickest way to develop a product and deliver it to market is through startups and how do you develop that ecosystem for startups? It's by innovative tax policies, it's for incentives for R&D and I think that's really where we've seen Pakistan lacking both from the private sector in Pakistan from the government and investing in their own research and development. So I have talked long enough, Uzair and that is my sort of list of issues and I'm happy to answer any questions. Thank you Safiya and thanks for those. And I think that list of issues is great to press particularly for everyone and see what he thinks about the appetite for some of these reforms that are needed. Before I do that for the audience tuning in on Twitter our hashtag is econoutlookpk if you want to comment, share, ask questions. If you're on the YouTube page feel free to chat in your questions on the chat box and we will ask those questions from our panelists here. Naila, I'll switch, I'll bring you in here because Safiya had a laundry list of sort of the big picture international investor issues that need resolution or how Pakistan can integrate into global value chains. As an entrepreneur, what are some of the top of mind issues that you think Pakistan's policymaker should resolve in the near term? Particularly, let me phrase it this way if pay in the sky has to go from 400 employees to a thousand employees in the next two to three years what are the things you would like the government of Pakistan to do in order to make that possible or in order to accelerate the pace at which you hire another 600, 700 people. And the second question I have is why did you not choose to take in the SPP financing scheme were there issues with the process or was it just a business decision? Okay, well I'll answer the financing one first is that that was a business decision. I chose not to. This was for covering employee salaries for three months but I chose not to. That way we were very lucky that our employees also sort of cooperated and we sort of worked out a deferred payment scheme for them. So that worked in our favor. I will though say that I did avail the temporary economic financing scheme and I did avail that and I have to say that we were facilitated very easily and very fast. It was extremely fast. And I just had that beginning of this year. I didn't do that in 2020. Coming back to what as an entrepreneur what I think everybody here knows that the tax structure in Pakistan it requires a lot of work. I'm talking from a very sort of basic level is that there is a lot of undocumented economy. There is a great undocumented economy in Pakistan. And I just feel that till we sort of are all on a level playing field it's very difficult for businesses to progress. I do pay a lot of tax because that's the way I decided to operate. I felt that that was the way to operate. Now I know that others may not be as forthcoming with their taxes. And then sort of it's very difficult. You're not competitive in the market. You're not able to price your product accordingly. So there's a lot that goes in. And anything sort of imports. I do try and rely like on a lot of local products so that I don't have to face that issue. But our customs duties have just gone through the roof. Things that were easily available are now not easily available. Stuff gets stuck at the port for a long time. Sometimes even if it's sort of refrigerated containers but we've had issues with, there has been a lot. There has been a lot. And I think the ease of doing business in Pakistan needs to change. It's not easy. It's not a very inviting or very hospitable business environment unfortunately. It's a daily struggle. It's a daily struggle with different layers of different things that come in. So it's not an easy situation. So taxation definitely is something that really does need to be regulated. It needs to be, sometimes you feel that your tax to the point where it's just not profitable anymore to run a business. There's certain sales tax and certain duties that you really hold your head at the end of the day. Sometimes I come home from work and I'm like, why do I do this? Because it's just, they're more obstacles and hindrances in your way than people sort of clearing the way and saying, okay, you're sort of an SME or SMEs are, I would like to think the backbone of any economy and instead of making it easier for a lot of us to operate, it's very difficult. It's very difficult in the current environment. And unfortunately, like I said earlier, I'm sort of worried about how much tougher it's going to become with new taxation or sort of energy rates having to go up or anything. So I'd like to be optimistic, but I'm so cautiously optimistic, cautiously optimistic, but like I said, I don't know what the government can do to sort of, I'm not an expert on this, but I just sort of when things are thrown at me, I'm like, oh my God, now this, now we have to deal with this issue or this taxation or somebody tells me, oh wait, we couldn't receive because we also actually have a chocolate shop. So we import Belgian chocolates. So it's like, sometimes you have, it's a very sensitive item and sometimes, it's been stuck at the airport rather for weeks because they can't agree on which, and though you've been importing it for years, they can't agree on which customs duty or which bracket you fall into. And it's like, each time you do it, you're having to sort of go through the whole issues all over again. So it's like, we did this last sort of six months ago and sort of we're having to redo it again. So it's difficult. It's frustrating at times and difficult, but sort of what can one do? Yeah, thanks for that. And so Kodam, I'll bring you in here because we've heard from both Naila and Safiya the sort of issues both small businesses as well as international investors face. And to Naila's point, SMEs are the backbone of an economy. Let's assume that are a million SMEs in a country like Pakistan. If you remove obstacles in their way to the extent that they can hire even two more people in the next year, that's two million new jobs that are created in the economy and that impact, no foreign investor, no Amazon, no anybody else can bring that in besides SMEs because they have the scale across the country and it's equitable growth across the length and breadth of the country. But Kodam, then you have the IMF's commitments and the commitments that on paper are commitments for reform, but in reality, they translate into this obsession over the current account deficit or raising the electricity tariff by five rupees at a time or six rupees at a time. From your vantage point and knowing some of the intrigue that's been going on in terms of who will drive the finance ministry, et cetera and the election mode that is going to, the government is going to go into election mode soon. Do you see any sort of reforms coming on the horizon in terms of improving the ease of doing business in the country and making sure that not only foreign investors, but also small businesses like NILAS are able to grow and thrive in the Pakistan economy? You know, then listening to both Satya and NILAS right now, I'm struck, in fact, by how disparate the challenges to investors in Pakistan really are. Those who are already operating in Pakistan, such as NILAS, those who have been invited to come and acquire a state such as the one that Satya has spoken to. And yet on the other hand, how utterly rudimentary the state of our economic conversation is in this country. Because as you rightly pointed out, it tends to revolve basically around a few deficits, a couple of high frequency indicators like large scale manufacturing, a handful of vested interests, very powerful vested interests tend to dominate the voice with which one can speak. I don't think people such as NILAS could speak above the powerful textile and cement industries of this country. Although one wonders how much innovation is going to come from the textile and cement magnets or the auto sector. On the one hand, we hear the government say we want to promote digital Pakistan. And on the other hand, the banning TikTok, one of the most popular apps among which viewed in this country every other month or so. If it's not the government, it's a port and now we wait to see who it might be next. On the one hand, they say we want to promote digital payments and a digital payment ecosystem because without that you're not really going to move into and have the kind of innovations you need to become a 21st century economy. And on the other hand, we see the FDR one day proudly announcing how it's a massive tax notices to all people using one particular digital payment platform, the only one available to freelancers who operate in the tech sector over here. Not that those people are necessarily tax cheats or something and not that there's a massive treasure trove of revenue to be unearthed by the FDR's own accounts that was only a handful of billion rupees which isn't going to be a drop in the ocean. Given the scale of the system deficit part, I'm heading towards, but nevertheless a pride and joy with which that was announced. And then the numerous other obstacles. So you just talk to somebody working in the high tech sector and listen to them explain all the problems they face in a simple act of receiving a payment from their clients abroad. And the obstacles are not only policy level or regulatory level from the state bank or the government, but at the banking level itself, it seems at least my impression is the banks are particularly keen to put a lot of their capital behind expanding their business in this area regardless of how they may talk. They would prefer to continue just lending to government. Borrowing, taking funds of 5% from the borrower and talking about returns on savings accounts not even current. And then they want to government at 7, 8, 9% instead and just leave it at that. This level of risk averse behavior which is so deeply rooted among the banks as well. So it's so basic, the rudimentary nature of parts of economic conversation the kind of economic directions that emerged from within this conversation don't wear or barely ever go much beyond the demands of particular vested interests which basically revolve around gas price subsidies power subsidies and another few taxes here and then few customs duties here and there. Incidentally another good example of the rudimentary nature of this conversation is the recent attempt to try and bring about a shift in geoeconomics by moving two proposals. One for sugar and one for cotton imports from India. And we saw what happened. We all saw what happened with that. It passed one committee of the cabinet it reached the full cabinet and over there it was suddenly shot down saying we have known that our foreign policy implications involved in this and the language that was used if you look at the public language for this they said we are not ready for trade normalization with India. And one feels like using words of one syllable to explain to these people that two commodity specific summaries do not amount to trade normalization. These are commodity specific. They are only opening sugar and cotton imports into India allowing their transfer across one or border. How is that trade normalization for God's sake? But you can see the level of the whole or the level to which geopolitics have a hold over the past economic conversation right here and in what happened over there. But across the board when I talk to trade industry associations you only talk to government the kind of representations that they get I don't think the voice of people such as Naila and other investors in high tech in the high tech side or those who are actually innovating and to move out of the traditional cement auto textile sector industries. I don't think their voice even reaches the policy makers. I don't see much of an organized voice first of all coming from them and whatever there is it doesn't get much play or much traction up at the top. The conversation remains wedded to very, very old fashioned brick and mortar issues. So I think something's got to change over there. And I don't think the IMF is the right player to look to try and change this conversation. It has to come from within. And I suppose to some extent these people who are working in innovative industries whether in retail or in services need to organize perhaps a little bit better network with each other a little bit better figure out what are the common problems that they are all facing where the government can play a role to help alleviate those issues and then figure out how to advance those that voice so it can reach them the years of policy makers engage perhaps a little bit more with the media but all of that by itself again will not bring about the kind of change that you sort of implicitly pointing towards to say if I understand you correctly that changes more than it has to be there has to be a high level of realization I think in this country that business as usual isn't working and until more is done to actually promote innovation to unlock the potential of the youth in this country to value and understand the new arenas that are opening up with the high tech economy coming in bringing in Tanya Andrews was a great move in that direction and the manner in which she led left was a lousy move away from that direction we need more people like her I think coming into Pakistan and contributing to not just the policy as well but also the conversation the policy and economic conversation in this country until that happens you know I think it will remain business as usual so it's very deeply rooted otherwise for there Thanks for that Forum and to the audience that is tuning in you can send in your questions both on the YouTube page now as well as on the USIP page in the chat box so keep those questions coming Safiya we actually have a question from the audience that I would love your thoughts on and the question is what is the future of economic relations with Afghanistan following the US withdrawal considering especially that India is looking to also increase its investment and maintain its influence in the country as well Yeah I think that's a tough one I think that's a tough one was there given that having traveled to Afghanistan and sort of in during my time in government the conversation was so security focused that I think you know there's been little to no conversation about economic development in Afghanistan and I think that's a longer term conversation for the country you know I think it's going to have to be a regional conversation about how you know the neighborhood comes together in support of Afghanistan's you know economic development how do they develop their own sort of indigenous economic platforms their own payment platforms their own banking system their own infrastructure and I think all of that is going to be it is going to be sort of a tough call and I think it's going to be a sort of territorial one given the sort of regional interests from India and others in Afghanistan and so so I think you know I think that's sort of much more further on the minds of at least US government officials at this point then I think as it should be it should definitely be sort of a huge part of the conversation but unfortunately I don't think it is I think you know just yesterday Jen Psaki mentioned that President Biden is still not made any decision and wants to take his time on you know the true policy and the decision on on that's element talks and so I think I think that is very much on the forefront of US policymakers minds and you know unfortunately that still is very much the forefront of the conversation of the US-Pakistan relationship and you know and so I think it will be for the upcoming months and for the near future so the economic one is a much tougher conversation in Afghanistan particularly for the private sector as well so but it's definitely one that needs to be had is there Thanks for that and Huda there's a question from Ambassador Eric Olson here that would love your thoughts and Safia if you want to chime in let me know as well on this one because it is a big issue it's been a big issue for a long period of time which is the Rekordic arbitration case it's been going on for a long time it has had an impact and the question essentially is in terms of investor confidence how much of an impact or does Rekordic continue to have in terms of you know creating this aura that Pakistan is not investor friendly destination and that you should shy away from it because of the fact that things agreements like Rekordic can go into arbitration for years and nothing can come out of it for a long, long period of time so Huda, what are your thoughts on that? Well, it's not just Rekordic although that's probably one of the biggest examples of the kind of policy uncertainty the uncertainty that investors face coming into Pakistan but this overall tendency to seek to renew or review agreements after having entered into them whenever government changes or even court intervention if investors cannot get a secure 20-25 year horizon of some level of policy certainty or you know whatever the gestation sees or whatever the horizon of the particular project is if you're putting down a billion dollars or whatever very large amount of money and you aim to recover that money over two, two and a half decades you need some kind of certainty you know that's the calculations under which I'm putting this money down will hold five years, ten years down the road and then new tax will not suddenly come in now there's a number of times or some other reversion will not take this so other than Rekordic what happened with the rental power projects for example a case that was launched back in 2011 I believe I'm not mistaken and once and all the people accused in it were exonerated only in July 2020 and even then NAB went and took the matter into appeal so it's still continuing right, from 2011 even though Pakistan has lost that case in international arbitration had to approach the government of Turkey at a foreign policy level at the head of state level and asked the Prime Minister of Turkey to do something to get that liability off them they are continuing to appeal the matter over here but there are so many other examples the recent attempt to try and renegotiate the tariffs with the independent power producers you can rest assured every future investor is looking at you and saying well you know if whatever agreement we come into under today is going to be reversed tomorrow I'll give you another example from special economic zones where people were told that your incomes will be tax free up until a certain point in time I forget the time would I assume but it was quite long over the decade or two decades your incomes will be tax free and then one day they decided to impose a turnover tax this is after the people had set up their plans made the investment and started running and they imposed a turnover tax and these guys went to the government and said you know as for your own policy it changed its tax exempt and the government said well that's income tax right this is turnover tax because you don't do the things you don't see anything about turnover tax that's clearly manifestly sounds like an acrobatics and so this does debt investment foreign investors particularly so but also domestic investors and it definitely makes people averse to acquiring long term stakes putting down large amounts of capital and whenever they do it encourages them to basically get their returns as fast as possible before the wind changes direction and I've had people tell me this directly I said carefully in this country you know you're putting down some money get your money, get your returns and your money back within two years because you don't know what's going to happen fast then so this policy uncertainty in fact promotes rent seeking behavior it promotes the kind of behavior that is very inhibited of growth and innovation for example over invoicing of capital equipment that you import so if you've taken a large loan you set up a large plant let's say a massive billion dollar fertilizer plant you will have an incentive to quickly recover that billion dollars or whatever it is you put down before the government changes its mind of the allocations of gas or before the government changes its mind on tax issues or pricing of fertilizer or subsidies or any of the other things that are critical components of your cost so it's not only dense investor sentiment it actually promotes rent seeking behavior and it increases people's reliance on immigrant kinds of investment behavior to seek outlandish returns in the short term while the sun shines it's a very damaging thing there's repeated policy of us Thank you so we've had a good sort of discussion on the issues that are there the economy related to rent seeking related to policy volatility international investors having concerns around record day Naila you also said that on certain days you think about the fact that it gives you a headache all these issues with the FPR and electricity tariffs and customs issues etc then why are you doing this but you are still doing this you're a successful entrepreneur so I would love to hear your thoughts on what is it that keeps you going in the Pakistani market given the obstacles that are in the way and why is it that you're determined to continue growing and what is it about the anomaly of the Pakistani market in a good way that allows an entrepreneur like yourself and others like yourself to prosper and thrive and continue to push the economy forward you know at the end of the day you know for me Pakistan is home this is where I was born this is where I live so you know I mean you know I'm sort of I can't see myself living anywhere else so you know if I want to sort of you know continue with my business then this is it and quite only I'm very patriotic I am very very patriotic so I really want to you know I think what gives an entrepreneur any satisfaction is sort of you know being able to employ people to make a change in their lives to help them sort of better themselves to better their family's lives I think that sort of really you know is what drives drives me at least as an entrepreneur obviously I sort of have a real passion for taking the business forward because I do feel that there is a lot of potential as well like you said you know that that anomaly is it's a good anomaly because even though like I said we're in a global pandemic you still go out in the market so you still go somewhere you know you do see people still you know going about their daily lives I mean you know it is an economy that you know a lot of people unfortunately are are daily wages so you know you sort of need that that economy to you know you need businesses to be open you need because that's how how you know our population survives and not that we have daily wages but you know I'm just saying that sort of I think that's that you know when you see people around you who who are struggling to survive you know who are having a hard time then you know I think it just pushes you even more I you know like you said I would love to be able to you know scale up and you know employ you know 600 people within the next year two years or whatever it is but honestly that's one of the reasons why we did take one of the financing schemes that the state bank offered is you know we are investing in sort of new equipment so we can enhance our our production capacity you know open more outlets maybe you know move to new you know across Pakistan so you know sort of create more jobs you know health healthy economy grow that way I mean you know the issues that that the business you know the small sort of business community faces they're not going to go away I mean I don't see them going away anytime soon so you know either I shut shop which I'm not prepared to do or then I just sort of you know sort of battle my way through and just sort of make it work you know you just sort of got to have that attitude of like a you know sort of that I'm not going to let it stop me and you're going to sort of no matter what you're going to you know build your way through and you know create that create that environment where you know you can sort of employ more people give more employment you know hopefully you know you know just create more jobs create more jobs you know that that's that's what it boils down to really really yeah I agree and I think it is at the end of the day that's what it should be right the conversation should not be about bested interests or subsidies here and there but it should be can you create jobs and can you create formal well-paying jobs that can help people improve their lives and if the answer to that is yes then the government and the policy environment should shift to create that opportunity and I think that's what's been lacking in the economic discourse as put them rightly pointed out within the country for a long long period of time we have another question here specifically and you know maybe I'll start I'll ask this question from Safiya and then Khurram would love your thoughts on this as well because Khurram you commented on it just a bit as well is that do you see the recent ceasefire between India and Pakistan in any way shape or form in the near to medium term benefiting Pakistan's economy and I say that very cautiously Safiya I know you're smiling because you know I was joking with someone on Twitter the other day that if someone were to write a book about you India-Pakistan relations they could probably call the book this time is different a history of Indo-Pak relations because we always make that point that this time hopefully is different so Safiya do you think this time is different? You know I think I'm cautiously optimistic as you know I think this time the fall was much longer you know at least in my sort of 10-15 years of watching India-Pakistan relations you know the fall felt like it you know the sort of freezing of the relationship felt really frozen this time you know the fact that the dynamics of the sort of leadership in both India and Pakistan were such and it really felt like things were going south and for the conversation to have taken this upturn recently with the ceasefire and then the talks on the Indus the water talks on the Indus Valley the river conversation I think that plus this conversation on resuming sort of bilateral economic you know like Kora mentioned on the sugar and the cotton trade between the two I think is promising you know I think we should be cautiously optimistic I think there's obviously always a spoiler to look out for anytime there's progress in the India-Pakistan relationship it's always two steps forward one step back but I do think that unlocking that bilateral trade between India and Pakistan could be a huge huge factor for Pakistan's economic progress and I think part of that is really sort of putting the geopolitics aside and looking at what's at play and what's in benefit of Pakistan's economic opportunities specifically for young people specifically when it comes to the service sector IT sector and how India has really revolutionized that sector in India and creating jobs and I think Pakistan can absolutely do the same and I think if there's more dialogue between the two on the economic side it's really about unlocking opportunities for the region and you asked me earlier about Afghanistan I think this could be a huge factor in that as well and so I don't wanna say this is the one because I don't know but I am hopeful that regional players can also be helpful in pushing the conversation forward I do think that the regional economic conversation should be a part of the conversation between the two usually it does start with like the water talks and the sort of territorial issues and let's put those issues aside and let's actually start on the economic piece and I think that actually might be a good starting point for the two. I think we're also long overdue for a cricket series as well so I'll add that to the mix. Yeah, that takes a bit. And I think you're absolutely right in terms of the normalization of trade cotton and sugar is not trade normalization trade normalization is when for example some of my friends in India stop complaining about the fact that they cannot find Sean Masala anymore in the markets there because it has to be routed through Dubai or some other channel and then ends up in India and it's too expensive by that time so that's an opportunity lost not only for Pakistani businesses but again to Naila's point in terms of Pakistani jobs and if you can have a normalized trade relationship then jobs will be created on either side of the border. Safiya you had mentioned China and China is the elephant in the room and Paramal asked you this question because you've covered CPEC extensively going all the way back a few years to I recall the exclusive report Don had around sort of what comes after the early harvest projects and part of that argument was that the Chinese will play an increasingly large role in Pakistan's economy, its agriculture it's maybe its technology sector. How has all that panned out over the last few years where I'm from your point of view and particularly also would love your thoughts on do you see this sort of continued closeness if CPEC goes into a next phase where this relationship deepens on the economic front does that have an impact then on the potential of a geo-economic, a deeper geo-economic relationship between Pakistan and the United States? Okay, those are two very, very heavy questions that we see if I can answer them in one go. I think CPEC has definitely slowed down but it is not dead as some people have been saying it has slowed down for two reasons one is that it was supposed to slow down anyway the early harvest programs were that they were the early harvest part of CPEC the real week actually came after the early part of CPEC, early harvest projects were the precursor you could say but and once those were done then those were short gestation 18 months projects to be set up in 18 months or two years, except for some of the hydroelectric projects which will take a bit longer but the vast majority of CPEC is not envisioned to be a project based cooperation between India, between Pakistan and China it's actually sort of a closer integration of the value chains between these two countries particularly between Xinjiang province of China and Pakistan so that is continuing, that's the place the special economic zones workers slowed down on those to some extent because SEVs are more complicated to set up investment is more difficult to incentivize and bring into the country than specific projects especially if those projects happen to be implemented by state owned enterprises that are operating under state directives but now that they are moving towards bringing in private entities from China into SEVs and into joint ventures in Pakistan it's because they were expected that there will be some amount of a slowdown but they are beginning to not trickle in the investments and I think it's entirely possible that in the years to come there can be an update in the years meaning between now and the year 2023 there can be a sharper update and a breakthrough can still happen to promote the influx of these investments so I wouldn't rule CPEC out just yet but to your larger question about its geo-economics in the United States I know a few years ago the Chinese used to try and tell the Americans with some amount of relish all those that we don't need you anymore we have time and look at all that the Chinese are doing for us I remember one event here in Karachi where then Deputy Chairman Planning Commission S&E 12 stood before and assembled gathering of diplomats and told them that the Chinese did for us what you should have done pointing to the Americans what you should have done after the World War ended in the 1980s you owed us a reconstruction package for the support that we have provided in helping bring down the USSR at that time but instead you abandoned us and left and today the Chinese are doing for us what you owed us back then and you have likened it to the Marshall Plan in a sense but today I note that the Pakistanis are trying to see to decline down from that diplomat they're trying to say well we don't want to go too far into China's orbit we're not getting as much out of China as we thought we would be getting and I think there is an awakening taking place within the highest levels of Pakistan's foreign policy establishments especially by this awakening I don't mean something that has happened in the last week but over the perhaps the last couple of years that no matter how much China is committed to you the Pakistan still ends up needing the United States perhaps the principal reason for this is that it goes back to the rudimentary nature of Pakistan's economic conversation that you were talking about earlier perhaps one of the reasons for this is that the only thing Pakistan is ever really looking for from any big partner is bailouts cash bailouts who underwrite the country's economic dysfunction and they found that the Chinese have a very limited appetite for that sort of thing they don't really do they don't really do bailouts they're the known bailouts of chronic dysfunction where the party is going to keep coming back every other year asking for another couple of billion dollars so and then I think realizing that the architecture of international cooperation continues to be dominated by the United States whether you're going to the IMF or FATF China's may be an emerging power especially in the region its power and its presence is it's very very palpable but I think at the highest levels they're now realizing that they do continue to need good relations with the United States and they're trying to find a way back into a way back to that place that they used to be before the relationship began to break so that's more or less it on that unless you have any specific follow-ups No, I think you covered it well and I would love Safiya's thoughts on this as well because I believe that the need for the United States is more than just the dollars there are deep cultural diaspora technological connections that Pakistan and its economy can take advantage of and I think due to the to the mistake of Pakistan's own policy makers in Islamabad they've routinely underestimated the value and potential of these linkages and always look to Washington for some sort of short-term financial support as they are now looking to the Chinese and you rightly said the Chinese are not in that type of game Yeah Sir, let me clarify I didn't mean to say that this is a good thing that the Pakistanis only ever bring the only ask they ever bring to the table is cash assistance to underwrite their chronic economic response I meant to say this more in the statement of fact that like this is sadly the reality this is how it ends up happening there are dozens of other things that they could be asking for that table but for somehow, from what I've seen the cash assistance is pretty much the only thing that it's the only ask that is ever brought to the table in relations with big powers so I just wanted to emphasize not trying to say that that's a good thing and yes, you're absolutely right that the number of students who have studied in the United States that I just put on that work in the United States with the United States as a source of remittances for Pakistan and then market access for Pakistani goods in the United States and services and what not there's a huge spectrum of possibilities that's actually open over there and even from the technology sector and the linkages with Silicon Valley there are extremely successful, qualified Pakistanis who have made it in Silicon Valley and beyond and who would like to contribute to the Pakistani startup ecosystem, for example and that is a wonderful connection that should be leveraged and that has a lot of transformative it could have a lot of transformative and is already having transformative impact on Pakistan's economy Safia would you agree that that's been sort of the shortcoming of the lack of imagination on the Pakistani side as well is like looking beyond Washington and looking at the rest of the United States and saying look, we actually have a really successful diaspora that should be investing in the country and not just in the next barrier town plot or the next real estate deal or the next Russian digital account scheme that has been launched but actually put stakes in the ground with capital investments that employ people and move the economy forward Absolutely, absolutely. I think those linkages are people to people I think they're business to business in Silicon Valley you'll run across so many people who are a Pakistani-American origin who feel like they want to give back to Pakistan and the way that they want to do that is by empowering Pakistani people by empowering the private sector and there is a growing startup community in Pakistan there is this drive of desire of young people to see innovation happening and they want to be a part of it they need capital they need their venture funds they need support and I think that's the sort of linkages that need to happen and unfortunately it's difficult it's difficult for those to happen organically and that's how the governments can provide that convening power and pull people together to have those conversations I think that's a huge part of this is that so often there was this Burman pipeline of billions of dollars of assistance that was coming over years and years right and so I think there was this the conversation was so focused on the assistance that the U.S. was providing to the infrastructure projects to the civil society projects to the democracy for all of these sort of great projects that the U.S. government was funding through Kerala-Burman funding and now that the pipeline has stopped the conversation has sort of dwindled and the conversation shouldn't just be government to government or from the finance cooperation of the U.S. from to the Pakistani government's finance cooperation it shouldn't just be between U.S. aid and the equivalent in Pakistan and I really think that that has been the missing link between the two governments is that they failed to bring in the thriving diaspora they failed to link up the venture community the startup community and that's really sort of the driver behind R&D that's employing young people that's bringing in innovation bringing in new ideas and I think that's sort of relying on the government to do that for you is just not going to happen and I think you know and I think the government could be proactive you know proactively providing a platform for this which would be fantastic but I do think that that's sort of a missing link between the two sides that has been missing for some time and you know the private sector can play a huge role in this but unfortunately the conversation has as Quorum rightly mentioned has shifted from okay so we've gotten assistance from the U.S. now that's dwindled then we'll get assistance from the Chinese then that's dwindled you know the UAE has dwindled so like that mindset has to change and I think the mindset has to really turn into how are we driving innovation how are we being creative how are we bringing in this how are we facilitating these conversations and you know one of the things that I really commend the Indian government for is and I could do this comparison a lot because I help in U.S. companies both in India and in Pakistan is is you know when the Modi government came in is he hired and and Quorum mentioned Thania and Drus which is what really brought this idea in my mind is he hired a bunch of 20-something 30-something diaspora Indian Americans to come to India and serve in his government in positions to revolutionize and change policies change change the way we do things because what we're the way we're doing things is not working right and they were McKinsey types and they were consulting types and they were you know they were like the 20 30 something Yale, Sanford, MIT graduates who wanted to come back and change something and you know their parents home country and I think that that same mentality is very prevalent in and young people of Fox County American origin today who want to sort of figure out how do we do this and how do we change processes and policies but is there really a space for them now in this government and I think that's that's part of the question was there yeah and this has been yes for them there's a very quick reaction examples from India tends to trigger the wrong reflexes over here so it's a carefully curated conversation when one tries to promote innovation and examples on the innovation over here but but it's absolutely true that innovation is the way out for Pakistan and yet at the highest levels of policymaking we see a doubling down on the old priorities which is finding the resources with which to underwrite your chronic dysfunction to manage and muddle through those chronic dysfunctions rather than reform them out of your economy and to continuously keep the shadow of geopolitics hanging over geo-economics instead regardless of of rhetoric sorry No, Kharam I think you summed it up really well and I would just say that even mentioning Bangladesh these days tends to trigger Pakistanis so it's very hard then to look around the neighborhood and say what lessons can Pakistan learn because apparently everything seems to trigger Pakistani policymakers in particular when you compare or draw comparisons between India, Pakistan and Bangladesh but yes it is a conversation that needs to be had in a big China doesn't China is a good example to give and then it's a matter of for what yeah but yes and in the Chinese example then they also conveniently forget that the road to Chinese reforms was ran through the cultural revolution which again as you mentioned would require not to double down on the status quo itself and that's a whole different conversation but this has been a fantastic discussion I thank the three of you for taking out the time for joining us and sharing your insights and perspectives and I think we can all agree on the fact that the policy conversation and the policy environment needs to shift towards removing obstacles creating more pie in the skies and allowing international investors particularly the diaspora to have long-term stakes on the ground in Pakistan and that is the path forward for innovation for employment and for sustainable growth and that the mindset needs to shift towards mindset of inclusion towards the mindset of creating opportunity and not just using crises to ask countries like China like the United States on and others for bailouts and for funds and I think the geoeconomics pivot is an opening to push that conversation we don't know how far that door will open but I think we can all keep trying and moving forward and as Naila said you know even when it drives us nuts we can continue to push forward and see where we go so thank thanks to all of you for taking out the time and for all of you tuning in thank you for joining us please follow us IP on Twitter on the YouTube page and other social media channels to stay aware of all the events that we host and all the reports and publish documents that we put out there and again have a good rest of the day