 the youtube stream let's see it work okay it's eight o'clock on friday the first of september welcome to a new month and welcome to this hour's webinar at the end of this week we've got non-farm payrolls we've also got the um Labor Day holiday coming up so um we will talk about all of that first of all let us do some disclaimers as always all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations trading futures equities and digital currencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and there's the usual slide about me but I think we'll just go straight on to the screens today so since we've got some major volatility and major news likely to happen in 29 minutes let's just do a quick zoom out before we go into context this is part of the context but let's this is what we always do it when we first fire up book mapping this webinar so we are looking in es and we're having a look where that resting liquidity is and as you can see most if not all of it i'd say most of it is up above so um and if we look across at these two trading view charts you'll see 3am being the london open and since then since we broke um above vwap and then above value in es we have not gone back into developing value and and just to recap the dark shaded area is one standard deviation of vwap and that's something that i consider as developing value i a proxy for what value is in the session so far today and you can see that es has not gone back into value it's above value and and it's quite bullish and the liquidity is aligned with that in other words one argument is that the liquidity is dragging it higher because people believe that they can conduct transactions up there anyway let's have a look at context let's go and go back to sorry let's have a look yeah all we are going to do today is we're going to talk context talk about capital preservation which is our number one job and i haven't i've touched on it i touched on it in every webinar but i thought i'd dwell a little bit more and go into a bit more detail in relation to the setups that have happened today and basically how one might trade in eth any day of the week then we can watch the markets maybe the es because the enq will be absolutely nuts we can watch the es at the 830 release okay so let's switch over to some slides okay i will just double check oh hi tom that anybody who has any questions or would like to discuss anything or like me to discuss anything feel free to make any comments in the youtube chat or in the discord channel my mobi eth futures discord channel within the bookmap discord okay the first thing on the images today is obviously the economic calendar so the forex factory one it's as good as any we can see quite clearly here we have a major major red event being the non-farm employment change either non-farm payrolls that is at 830 eastern which is in 27 minutes we're expecting high levels of volatility with that release every single month and that may also result in the margins given to you by your brokers being adjusted so an increased margin requirement during the high level of volatility we've also got one other red economic release which is the ISM manufacturing PMI at 10am eastern which is well past our one hour of power but it is something to worth noting so basically to recap the calendar we've got a lot of volatility so we've got some market making moves one thing that can happen with a market making move is that they can result in trend days again whenever I say anything like that and I'm talking about probability and statistics the only says on you for your trading business to go and research and explore any idea that I may have raised that piques your interest so if I say that if you have significant market making news and then the market opens out of range and out of range means it is out of the range between yesterday's high and low there is a potential to continue a trend for the entire day there's some very good software packages out there investor rt is one where you can research that to your heart's content and of course my friend python that I mentioned the other day python you can do just about anything provided you can export your data to it okay on top of those economic releases we have a us holiday that's Monday the Monday coming up Monday the fourth Labor Day and there is another statistic again please explore this for yourself that the market tends not to have a significant down day going into a holiday weekend this is not a huge probability we're not talking about 90 we're just talking about a likelihood more likely than not that it will not have a significant down day today anyway let us move on to more context okay some stats the only reason I'm pulling this up right now is to note that on nq especially we have had nowhere near the average average range for eth that's currently when I took this a few minutes ago 77 point range out of an average of 120 over the last trade 10 trading days that means there's plenty of room left and if the average for the the whole session is 237 and q has got a long way to go and es has more than double and especially with market making news in other words we could have a lot more range than we currently have had in eth the relative volume is 88 which is under 100 but we haven't had that news yet so something I'm expecting is that relative volume to shoot upwards come 8 30 am eastern okay let's have a very quick look at the dailies for es and nq as I mentioned on wednesday the potential downtrend or the downtrend depending on which way you look at it has been broken and we have re-established an uptrend on these trend lines so we've got two trend lines a medium term and a longer term which is multi months for es and if we switch over to nq it's the same but a bit of a steeper trend line for nq and so basically it is relatively bullish no matter any other news etc etc for es and nq and nq has been leading or driving so if we look at the bars the daily bars this week so after that big red bar down and the big blue bar up and we go back to es we can see that yeah it was significantly bigger in relationship or proportional terms in nq than it was in es and if you watch the intraday stocks you'll have seen that it was likely that nq was leading in rth and I would say that has also been the case in eth but the caveat there let me get rid of these slides now we'll go back to streaming and we'll go back to back to them back to the markets in in eth we have the benefit of liquidity providing a stronger foundation for magnetism i.e it is more likely based on liquidity to establish a direction in the eth than it is in rth that is my personal opinion it's my personal statistic and again please research that for yourself so what I was saying was that although nq has been leading if we look at the liquidity picture here in es and we zoom right out we can see most of or nearly all of the liquidity is above we're very close to tapping into that now and we have already we have started tapping into it and we've been grinding up quite a long way in towards it and into it all afternoon european time or early morning us time and if you contrast that with the liquidity picture in nq we zoom back out to zoom in on the horizontal and the vertical axes the liquidity picture there was earlier on some fairly thick resting liquidity here at 15 670 that's been tagged and taken and it was quite a useful level on the couple of times it got revisited but other than that 15 670 and maybe this 15 sorry 15 5 17 15 5 85 maybe this 15 5 85 level as well the picture on liquidity in terms of giving a directional read was a lot clearer and a lot cleaner in es and that is often the case but not always so just because es may have led for three days out of five for example does not mean that tomorrow or the next day the nq will not provide the better liquidity read for the european or asian sessions okay how are we going on time we've got 20 minutes okay just checking to see if there's any questions no questions so far okay so um what am i going to do i'm going to um i'm going to talk about we're going to do this directly in bookmap um we're going to relate the subject of risk um back to win rate um because we all have weaknesses and i'd say that over the course of my trading career uh an obsession or too strong an interest too keen an interest in win percentage rate has held me back and i'm quite careful in using the term held me back because it is quite true and it's probably the best way to describe it um so what i'm trying to say is that if you can get away from two concepts and they both relate to each other one the desire to win and sometimes the desire to win at all costs and two the desire to have certainty which is very very strongly interrelated that will help your trading um enormously and you know it is essentially a casino you're playing it the same way that the casino is playing you and your edge depends upon how you handle your risk preservation all right i'm just watching let's go back to es because it's hard to take our eyes off this and go back to the london open because we're setting up for something coming into 830 so you know we've got some strong liquidity bands here that it wants to eat through it appears um if we have a quick look at the profile and we zoom right into this yeah it does not look finished in the sense that there is not a nice tapering off on the um profile as it currently stands going into a major economic release so it is hard to suggest that we will go straight down from here without at least exploring a little bit higher than the current eth high of about 54 54 45 sorry 45 3450 i know i have my numbers very very small so it's interesting to note so going into this release again this is context so this all links up to the context we were talking about before we've got value in eth which is let me i can draw but i'll draw with my mouse for a second you've got value in eth which is essentially this area here so that the value is tapering off at this singles area profile singled about 45 23 so if we had clear resting liquidity above that stayed there and we did have a liquidity break and i can explain what that is that is essentially just a dip down to to grab some more liquidity i dip down to an area where they can be filled to go back up again if there was a liquidity dip down to here that might become a very attractive trade to trade back to any resting liquidity in this area that might be in a position for them to attempt to take out yesterday's rth high and if i look also let me get back on the cursor if i look on this i can do this in bookmap as well just at the the heavy liquidity that's up there at 45 45 and if i go up i zoom right back in on the profile and have a look to see if there are any other areas recently that they might want to take out i mean there's a potential there that that is something called a poor high doesn't look really like a poor high but there is a a possibility that it might want to get up as high as that which is up at the 4560 level so it's always worth looking in bookmap once you've seen this kind of profile interest points to go and have a look at liquidity so let me just ditch that bit of drawing let's go back into bookmap and see what is above and i'm just dragging this down so i don't have to zoom in and out too much so i can get a better idea of the numbers so you've got 254 4545 if sorry i'll say that again 4545 then you've got some another 200 plus level of 4551 and up at the 4560 level nothing of the 200 order so it's interesting that the the highest tag is up at this 4560 and i will just mark that and it should appear on bookmap if i just mark it bear with me i'm just going to mark that level because it could well get that high during the release so that may or may not appear in bookmap in a few seconds depending on how often cloud notes is refreshed i've got a little tool that i built in seara that where i i don't always write in it i normally just shade colors i've got four colors and once i mark an area on my execution chart in seara normally within 60 seconds you get there is there you you get the corresponding cloud note and so if i actually gave that one a name that would also appear just there but it's just something useful if you've got multiple tools and i've said before that i do or i admit that i do it's always a good idea to make sure that they talk to each other or work as well with each other as they possibly can so i know tom he was listening a little bit earlier uses investor rt but yeah he has a process where he's integrated his use of investor rt directly with his use of bookmap and that is key so you don't want your tools to be conflicting with each other or to to be to spend too much time focused on one tool and then ignoring the other tool because that negates the purpose of having both of those tools okay so you know on this screen here we've got a purpose of this trading view tool we've got a higher level three minute chart which will move down to one minute in a few minutes and we've got the developing value area and we've also got a clearer zoomed out picture of yesterday's high low and settlement so it serves a purpose i've got other things in my in my sierra chart that serve as purpose to work with with bookmap so it looks like they are having a bit of a liquidity dip and q might be a little bit more interesting on this one i marked a little area here of on a very low time frame chart a 10 second chart but they might want to flush this zone down at 15 5 6 5 just to see if there were any stops down there on any liquidity break this does not mean that we are suddenly not bullish it's just the immediate immediate short-term action maybe that they flush the stops around here to get a better price to take them up higher later that's one possibility but um there are lots and lots of other possibilities as well anyway let's um let's have a five minute chat about risk and capital preservation and win rate so i might just kick this one off by talking about win rate okay and i might do a little bit of a drawing here as well so if i am if i just do some typing first here so when i um when i was learning wike off one of the first setups that i was that i was told was about uh was something called new momentum high or low and if i if i now get my pen out and we draw this one there's a reason why i'm mentioning it if you bear with me so if we let's do it to the downside okay so say we've got some price action here then all of a sudden we go down there okay that would be considered a new momentum low and you often have something like a momentum in indicators such as a mac d or any any any type of momentum oscillator where you might have just a general thing like that and then suddenly a much lower curve or lower peak on the on the on the momentum indicator as well okay why am i mentioning this because it's not something that we generally talk about um sorry i'll get rid of that as well okay i was told yeah i was taught i won't we went it doesn't matter who i was taught by that this particular setup had has a 70-80 win rate okay i was also taught um some scalping techniques so a particular scalp a very a very small scalp a small scalping technique small scalping small small setup that had something like a 90 win rate what i'm trying to say is that both of those lessons in hindsight and we're talking about several years ago and just reviewing it all now were a disaster for my psyche and moving forward to establish a profitable trading business and it's something that i highly encourage suggest whatever the words are people not to go down that path you will see you know if you do your youtube kind of search your google search you'll you'll see these gurus oh by the way if we quickly click back to nq we did flush that there and they haven't really found many stops that was the zone i'd marked earlier that i thought they would flush let me just move this chart down to one second it was really some it was some of the action down here that i thought they were going to flush and maybe go all the way back into value uh they didn't they didn't really they just tagged value and looks like they bounced already um anyway um yeah let's get back to that okay what i want people to get away from in terms of this 90% or 80% win rate is that this gets into your head or it starts playing with the part of the human brain that loves certainty and the human brain is is naturally inclined to to do that for whatever reason we don't we don't need to go into the whole psychology of monkey brains etc here during this because there's plenty of better books and speakers and videos all about that kind of concept but what i'm saying from a practical perspective and what this does when you're actually trying to trade these markets when you're not doing it this from a theoretical basis you're actually in the nitty gritty executing and placing orders and placing stops or supposedly placing stops in the market is the it gets into your idea that this has an 80 or 90 win rate this must win if i if i let it lose um then i'm not going to get the the win rate or this can't lose because i've taken this and i've lost twice in the last five trades and this has got 80% win rate so this one must must win to to get there or there's some other factors that lead you to believe that it is absolutely certain that this trade will will win that will kill your trading and that will break your account quicker than anything else in the market uh and you know it also um yeah it has two ways let me do it it's a separate bullet point here two ways of destroying your account your account excuse my typing today by adopting this approach the first is certainty so you won't so you won't take your stops and one single trade will get you to breaking your account count or your max stop stop out uh stop limit set by your broker all right so that one trade because you you're so hooked into this i must win 80% of the time 90% 100% of the time that you will not take a stop and that one trade it doesn't matter i mean you might well have been hitting 80% um on this particular setup time and time and time again um but that one time will destroy your account um because you won't accept the stop you'll have placed your stop in the market just like you tell yourself to do but you won't honor your stop uh and that is a practical way of destroying your account and the other way the second way uh is that you will not honor your your win scales um per your plan so what i mean by that and we can you know we can get back onto book map now because we can actually look at that um for example so um i'm saying i mean i'm going to draw again so forgive me when i draw uh here we go so i'm saying that if i zoom right back in i have to zoom back in otherwise you won't see why this is a supply and demand trade okay so we have we have a lower here we have a flush below it and we have a breakout failure so this is type c that's really horrible let me just go back so this is type c okay type c right so we've got we've got a breakout failure below it rejects that and goes up okay um when we have a type c and we may need to zoom out again here we have a we have a we have a lightly target here because we've got a lovely range of sellers here that they should take out i haven't got my pen on okay they should take out one pen yeah they should take out that so i'm saying that um the the t1 was around here and if you get into your certainty and uh and this starts playing with your head um apologies it zoomed in on me there you will end up taking some off around here here and here you might only have three scales and you'll already be done here even though um when you've analyzed this setup and you've written it up in your trading plan and you know that your first main target is right here you will not have taken your first scale there in other words you would have taken a scale at something like point two five r multiple of a quarter of an r or half an r or two-thirds of an r rather than a full r and we're talking about a beautiful trade here so um where does it get down to it got down to 15 five uh sorry 15 three six three so we so you could have had a really really tight stop here um based on on this lower and this trade of of 81 uh and you could well have had three r by now um or at least two r i'm just saying that will kill your trading because you will not honor your scales correctly at one r two r or you know maybe your second scales at 1.5 r whatever your scales are that you've written in your plan because you've determined it on your manual back testing um that concept of not honoring risk um preservation correctly and being too focused on certainty will destroy it anyway um i better stop um talking about that now and let us focus on the es market because we are coming right up to uh 8 30 so some of this liquidity is going to disappear we're at 8 28 i'm just gonna turn on financial use i don't think you'll be able to hear it um okay i'm just looking at seeing what liquidity is left in es in the last 90 seconds coming into this release um so we still have this heavy heavy band up to that round number at 4550 but we've also got a thicker band now that's appeared at 4560 we're still in es um we zoom out we're still above value and in nq we're still above value so you know part of these these shades for me are to keep me in context you know for example not to let myself get too bearish you know i can still take shorts but not to get too bearish in context remaining i'm leading with us non farm payrolls i don't think anybody heard that that was financial just just telling me that we're down to the last 50 seconds um anyway i'm just saying we are towards the top of the range or above value we've got some liquidity above so let us watch what happens so one of the things that might happen is a fake out to start with the liquidity it dipped down and then a grind up or a rapid push-up but we shall see which way they go first and we'll focus on es we 25 seconds to go so we can see all the numbers it's about as close as i can get 10 seconds that's 830 so we had to move both up and down at 187 k 187 k higher than forecast 100 and 70 k unemployment rate three spot eight percent three spot eight percent that's higher than the forecast of three spot five percent average earnings year over year at forced so the unemployment rate is higher than forecast so nq by 90 stop doesn't really matter what the news was the market wanted to go up and has continued to go up and we saw that by the likelihood given by the liquidity positioning that has been there all afternoon european time or all early morning us time so what was a little disappointing was that the dip down in in es was so small so if i had been trading i think i um pretty much hinted that i was looking for longs um yeah it would have been a very very quick trying to get in on this little stop out 280 stops on the nbo stops to get in to get along to grind up towards the 4550 there is a tiny cell iceberg that suddenly appeared at 4544 and if we quick as we can we flick into nq and there's some liquidity up above and let's get back to es center it so i keep saying that i take these icebergs certainly at this time of the day as a potential sell target i prefer it if it was more than just one contract that being filled but because you've got liquidity above it does add confluence nonetheless to um a long direction but remember markets do not like being too obvious certainly the nq doesn't um at the moment it is obvious that it wants to go up if we look across at the one minute chart on es and nq we can see we've taken out the high of yesterday on both and we go and we now just tapped the first bit of liquidity that was sitting there at 4545 so again that liquidity did help us and in terms of you know what was the supply and demand way of getting in there i mean we had this little region you can call that a dull bottom or you can call that a test of a demand zone you would have had to been very very quick but you did get that opportunity a minute after the economic release so if you'd have managed to get in around there at market and i would not have been limiting in targeting at least the first liquidity you'd have got a few points um probably about four points at least and now we've got that liquidity we are having a little push down again um given where we are nothing is particularly bearish just yet and at this point when we haven't moved down a bit it's worth knowing it's worth checking to see if we've got any liquidity markers like this one here of any real interest i where is the liquidity below what is it does it relate to um any significant level i mean at the moment nq just tagged its hive yesterday and essentially has bounced off the fact that it may have gone five or ten points under at this time of the day that's still just tagging it because nothing is precise when you have a significant market making moves yes actually took out its yes a hive by a little bit i came back down to um the second deviation of the web but we're yeah we're not getting far away from that liquidity so it appears that all this was was a little motion to go and grab some cheaper prices and now we're grinding back upwards to the main areas of liquidity so it is still long you can see um zoom in a little bit there you can see a nice little bye ice so our general principle for heavy liquidity is they almost get there they go away they come back they may not tag it the second time but the third or fourth time they usually do interact with that heavy liquidity certainly that is the case more for nq than anything else but it will be interesting to see if es blasts through this liquidity at four five four five this time if anybody's got any questions it's always good i want to stay focusing on this action because we've got some market making market moving action um right here and now so we can have some live commentary for a change as opposed to when i'm doing some hindsight talking on the microstructure before um i can keep talking about risk even though i'm talking about it on on live um on live market action and i'm talking about it on es rather than nq es is es i find deciding where my risk point or my wrong point is to be easier than nq um because es is so much thicker than nq so i'm happy to have a stop i mean for example um if there was something there at this mbo 46 stop i would have my stop right there and because if it took that out um even though it could be a c category demand i'm happy enough that when i initially take the trade and i probably wouldn't have got into about there that that is a good enough stop for me whereas nq i find because it is such a thin volatile beast i often prefer to have automated volatility based stops rather than manual stops so most of the time because nq is so thin and so fast my stops are placed automatically essentially based on a on a on some form of multiple of an atr on a low time frame chart it's hard to describe exactly what i programmed but that's essentially what it does and i can quickly adjust the multiple that i'm applying to that type of atr so that's one way i do it and obviously if if i can see a better risk point i i can see something to narrow the risk after i've entered the trade i am more than happy to tighten my stop straight away you know one thing that i continue to try and learn every single day is to be better at losing and to be better at being wrong um you know people will ask during this webinar you know with it with the a b c of supply and demand yes still crunching through the liquidity so if we look at this if we look at that so look at the number of times it did it so once twice didn't take it out three four this time it took it out on the fifth touch and that's by zooming in into bookmap and seeing all of these trades you wouldn't see that on a three minute chart or a 15 minute chart but it is good to note in in bookmap and one of the things that helps you with and this is what we're talking about supply demand here is that if you wanted a demand long you know whether it's a scalp or whatever say you wanted a trade to take out that 4545 the fact that you know the probability is that it will not take it out on the second touch but more likely on the third and fourth touch means that you are patient enough to wait for it to come back to here take a tight stop and trade all the way back into it or through in this in this case before it's come down and taken out the the resting by iceberg um yeah that's i think that's one i mean i i've talked about the advantages i mean there are lots of disadvantages of having small time frames but there are also lots of advantages and some of those relate directly to repetitions and risk and preservation of capital so by zooming right in inside bookmap there we are able to see exactly where that demand zone was or exactly exactly again is an inverted comma kind of word as precisely where the risk zone not the actual risk level but the risk zone because there's no such thing as an individual price level you can see as close to precisely where that risk zone was than if you'd had it zoomed out on a much wider time frame okay so this is quite nice action now that um in terms of supply and demand you've actually got you know you you've had a lovely short there i mean that was it that would be a very brave person to take it with the liquidity above maybe it's the wrong thing to do if you think it's going to eventually grind up and take out the 50 and the 55 and maybe the 60 but there was a category c supply trade just right there after it flushed out that liquidity some trapped longs just some lake longs which is also fuel to take these shorts and then you would have got nice trade back down to the other end of that supply demand zone okay so it's quite interesting now that we've had 10 minutes since the economic release and we've had nothing majorly bearish in terms of market price action and that is worth noting because there is another statistic that i'm going to throw at you and again take them with a massive pinch of salt and go and do your own research but there is another statistic which is that if we were to have a trend day you know it might well be a trend day up in this in this scenario the if it was a trend day up just as just as an example then the low of that trend day up is often formed within 15 minutes of the economic release i.e by 8 45 a.m eastern if we were having a trend day up you might have already had the low of the next eight nine hours i am not here to predict the future i cannot predict the future anybody that says that they have a a certain way or absolutely a certain way of winning is lying to you anybody that says that they do tremendously well because they win 99 percent of their trades is lying to you but i'm just saying that there is a statistic that if we were to have a a trend day then the high or low of that day is often established within the first 15 minutes of the major 8 30 a.m economic release and then if we then go back and see what was that that that point there and we can always market on our charts as that you know in case this is broken later you know so this becomes a key point so the point there is it's 452875 or if i zoom into the dot yeah 452875 so if i marked my charts there as a support zone direct it back i'm doing this in Sierra so it'll appear in in book map hopefully in a minute or so something magical will appear just around about there and i'll know there it is there and i'll know that that statistic has been breached as when that's taken out so so i can then have a thought and say you know maybe this you know for example might not be a trend day no it's just it's always useful having counter arguments against yourself so this isn't questioning your trading plan this is not questioning the setups and the process that you take this is just questioning your analysis of the market because as i said in the last webinar your trading process is a much better trade than you are so anything that that makes you question yourself rather than your process is a good thing so if you question yourself because you're a hundred percent certain that the market is going to go up and we're going to have a trend day well it's good that you have then question yourself and here we have an objective level at 452875 where we have to then question ourselves if we were using that statistic saying oh but i decided that the the low for the day was this point at 8 31 a.m at 452875 and it's taking it out so maybe it's not a trend day okay that was just a thought so the market has slowed down we've gone back to the normal kind of auctioning process tom likes to use that phrase again so i'm having a quick look at get that one off having a quick look at the one-minute bars i need to have a quick look at my seara shot as well so we're back under yesterday's globe x high and close to yesterday's rth high yesterday's rth high was at 3975 so we're getting quite close to that and it'd be interesting to see whether we can hold hold at this level and then grind upwards or whether we're going to slam down through it and and go exploring lower again if we look at the microstructure in terms of what has happened since we formed that high okay so the second opportunity after after we had that first high down let's have a look make sure i'm talking about the right thing i have to zoom back out yep okay so you you had that which is the up thrust or the breakout failure then you had a double top which is right where they placed 140 and cued by 55 stop and now it looks like they are having a short-term exploration of price lower and we're at a critical level because we're right at the top of yesterday's rth range and if we get back under that maybe we can explore a little bit further i'm just having a quick look to see whether the liquidity has remained relatively static i either still providing it up above or not whether they have signaled whether there's anything below you know is there some real interest that they want to explore and trade down to or is this just more likely than not some form of pullback okay and yeah with major economic releases because nq is so crazy if i'm looking for supply and demand trades i'm looking for small trades in es normally sometimes you get a scale and you get a runner so what you start off with as a small trade might turn out to be a much better or bigger trade than you imagine but i mean i think i did a chart yesterday in the room just showing how many supply and demand setups that were in nq in the first 90 minutes or first two hours of the european session yesterday and again here i mean even if we started looking at shorts you know we've got that one we've got two and then if you zoom into this microstructure here you've got a potential third one there so you'd have three really good setups and and yeah we can go into detail why details of why they are i think the first one yeah the first one it was late players in terms of the trigger you had the late buyers after the flush through liquidity so you had a decent delta above a decent number of buyers who in fact we've been to zoom right in so you can actually see it until we do zoom right in you had enough buyers to get us down to this by iceberg which is the other side of the supply design demand zone as a target so you had a good trigger there you also got this market pulse where it's been pushing really really really hard with price and so you know there's a good chance that they can't keep that pressure up forever so that's a way of using the market pulse when it's grinding grinding grinding at the up you know that you're taking it when it is right in the green zone and that it cannot probably stay in the green zone forever and the second one the second one's it's not a double top if we zoom right in but it's it's a test of the double top so it's the category b or close to the category b as possible you've got a nice large trade interacting with liquidity so you've got a 400 trade and that essentially is the trigger this is the hardest one to take because you see when it's a double top and you've got liquidity above it's very very hard to think that it will not go all the way up but you know one of those things if you get yourselves away from certainty and you get yourself into the concept of uncertainty and in exploring it and accepting that uncertainty can actually help and improve your trading that will help you take these kinds of trades which can get you you know maybe the best result of your trading day you know that that would have been a very very hard trade to take that one at the 370 buy volume on the delta side you got a great big buy delta at the top there and you're right in a zone where they did have supplied previously and they pushed it down quite a few points so you know that is a legitimate setup the fact that it tests again and doesn't go up just enhances that or gives you a second opportunity to get in all right and then if you're staying on the short side then you know this you know we're zooming right in on the microstructure where it's exploring towards this resting liquidity below and you're taking a short scalp that is a supply demand scalp there or there that's a category B that's a category C and yeah they do take it out and they push it down a little bit further so i'm just saying that you know with these economic releases and with with highly volatile ES action at this time of the day you can do things in a proportional sense that are pretty much identical with what you do with NQ during the first hour or two hours of the european open you know it is zooming right into the microstructure and trading that microstructure but as i've said i've got a tool i've got i've got various tools that i've got in seara to help me with this but one of those tools is the you know where where i've set the risk in whatever points you know whether it's automated or fixed um then i i have it such that my the quantity that i take is automatically calculated for me so that it meets the risk dollar value that i have set for each and every trade that i'm taking in this session and that and that should relate proportionately as a percentage of your total capital so it doesn't matter to me you know that you know i might be trading for two points here rather than four points or six points um because my are because i'm trading the same dollar value risk i'm still getting the same as if i was taking a four-point risk and a four-point target so the fact is i'm taking a two-point risk with a two-point target it is the same trade to me in terms of my trading business and that is something that you know you're often i mean i i saw a video the other day talking about home runs and things like that it's one thing i'm not looking for a home run i'm looking for a sustainable trading business that i can do each and every day of the week and that means that necessary that i don't get home runs but i often get people saying or you you'll see video saying i made 90 of my profits on this day uh and you then have to question it i mean that's great we all have days where we do much better than other other days and that does happen but if your business revolves around having as a guarantee and a day where you make 90 of your money for the month you know you've got to question whether that is a truly sustainable trading plan because what happens if you aren't around that day you might be sick that day it might be you know it might be now i'm i am not able to trade this hour because i have promised to do this webinar um so but you know i might have taken some good trades i might have taken some bad trades i'm just saying that you know there were some beautiful setups in this session but i am not trading them and i won't be trading until the rth session tonight so i won't trade until 40 minutes time but um i believe that you can model this around having different size targets um so it doesn't matter whether you you know in a volatile rth session in an hour we make 10 points um if we've taken a 10 point risk or a five point risk you know if we get to our whatever the point is that you have multiple repetitions so that you can keep doing the business that is necessary to get the trading results that you want to see um you know you can equate it to being a taxi driver because that's probably a very good analogy or a metaphor um you know you don't want just one ride to the airport that makes 90 of your money for the um entire month or the entire week you you'd like to have lots and lots of good rides and if one of those rides happen to be somebody you take and they suddenly decide they want to go to a b c d and e i use five scales in in our terms um that is great but it's something that you could not have foreseen i mean whenever we you know i i normally have about i think i've got five scales in my um in my current um automated execution things i've developed in sierra i am not expecting i in fact i never expect to get to the fifth scale um if i get to the fifth scale or or if i managed to increase that scale for whatever reason you know it's it's an absolute bonus but it is not the mainstay of your trading business the the mainstay of your trading business is is um not losing more than one are and that's you know that's really what i wanted to talk about um in in that perspective anyway let us quickly go and have a look at nq i haven't really gone back to the rth open but because we've got so many similar types of trades to what we would do at the sorry the eth open i don't think there's any need um it's always worth looking at nq and again i say that as i keep saying when i am actually um not you're not presenting a webinar i've got book map nq and book map es pretty much side by side across a thin bezel on two monitors so i i would know um that on nq we tagged right up to this thick liquidity and rejected it um there we go in fact we interacted with it and then we rejected it so you have that beautiful category c trade here category c and nq can be like this at this time of the day you know it doesn't look like a true category c because you've got this skinny little shoot up but that's what happens when they put tremendous um pushing and selling pressure sorry tremendous book pressure in the market and you and you go through some stops and nq because it's so thin it can shoot up but that essentially is still a category c supply and demand it's a breakout failure it's smashed above it something and then comes right back down um so in terms of being able to see it live in real time you have to account for the fact that one is a lot thinner than the other so they're going to look a little bit different and when you've got something like the um the mbo stop um icebergs order that that can help here you can see that that was 33 six so um you know in terms of actual stops you know it's like a 300 stop if we took everything one of those orders and we added them up 173 48 etc it's pretty about 300 in total so if you've got 300 orders to fill in nq it's going to take a few points because the book is that thin so that to me is still um very similar to a category c at any other time the day it's just something that you have to adapt because of um you know of where it is um and it was taking out I think it was sort of look yeah it was taking out a thick liquidity level and it hit a few stops I don't know if they they knew they were gonna hit those stops there but they took them out and that got a beautiful reversal okay still no questions okay I just checked to make sure there are not a lot of people on today I'm just seeing if there's anything in nq that's helping us with likely direction so you've got this thick liquidity which is at the round number of 15 600 which we kind of ignore even though it may well get taken out but you've got two lower levels there nq sell 58 stop 15 519 15 980 and just looking at my 10 seconds it looks like they might want to flush underneath 15 618 at some point soon so they might well have a little flush down because they have the momentum at the moment and if I look across to see if we have any unfinished auctions we don't but that doesn't mean that it went flush it out yep there we go nice little flush down yeah when you watch the nq a lot you will kind of see behaviors that you see again again so there is something that I saw there in book map and and also on my 10 second Sierra chart that that said to me that it was likely that much more likely than not that they were going to flush that out um okay how are we going on time to 8 58 two more minutes to go back to ES and watch this so we zoom out again we've still got this heavy liquidity above and if we look at the actual longer term three-minute chart how we've broken back into value no not really we've held above value so we're still very very bullish and we're back above yeah we're back above yesterday's daily rth high and the globe x high so again even though we had a lovely move down and it was tradeable you know provided you had setups that were that were set out in your trading plan and those criteria were met but even though we had setups to the downside that were tradeable it still looks quite bullish and you know you should also have been looking at a potential category c long just right there which is quite nice so you had a large couple of volume dots there so quite a lot of volume if you add those up you're very well over a thousand um and they took those out i'll try to see what they were right it's hard sometimes you've got to do quite a bit of mental arithmetic in your head otherwise you have to spend too much time zooming in we took those out and yeah that's been a nice retrace of four and a half five points already four and a half points probably okay um yeah final request for any questions because i'm coming up to my last 30 seconds um i wish everybody a good holiday weekend and enjoy your trading and enjoy your session ahead i will be with you mentally or in spirit um and have a have a good weekend um i will stop the youtube stream now