 This is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi, everyone. I'm Basil Chapman, 23rd. This is the Wednesday edition. Early edition, 8.06 a.m. It'll be replayed at 10 a.m. So, whatever we discuss right now, you've got to wait two hours for the market to open. We're going to open for half an hour, and then you'll check to see whether or not we're at the same levels that we're looking at right now. Pre-market, I'm anticipating some kind of a consolidation today. We had at least two sessions where the market went even higher than I anticipated in this leg seat. So, let's go through the numbers. We'll do it on the closing price yesterday, the Dow extended to leg seat. My suspicion is that the 34,900, 35,000 level is going to be the big test to see whether or not we can move even higher. But the futures are in, actually, this is already a leg D. I'm always looking at the Chathamway methodology. We try to identify the lowest low bar, and then try to see if the prices that we're following go from a buy signal to an upgraded buy mode. The implication is that you'll get to at least four higher peaks, peak A, peak B is an X, peak C is an X, and then a peak D, and then other things can happen. Well, within the context of markets, we're looking at 127, let me just check that out here, 131 points down right now, 34,578, but actually the futures went to a higher high, extending that leg D at 34,792. We're only in leg C in the daily chart on the cash, so I'm anticipating some kind of a pullback today, and then over the next two days, we make that leg D, and that test, because the high yesterday was 34,792, it tested 34,900 area. That's going to be key for me. Fabulous action, as the stochastic is at 94 percent, I love that, and flat for the source to drop and go under 80 percent, that's a big problem. And the MACD, the moving average is good, the weekly chart, we've still got to wait, we're not even halfway through the week, so we have to wait to see what happens with this weekly chart. Action up till now has been really good, and the monthly chart has improved, obviously. Let's go to the S&P, the S&P cash yesterday, went to a leg C, extended, and well into the 4500s, and right now the futures, I'll go to the continuous contractors to show you, has made a lower high than yesterday, unlike the Dow futures, the high yesterday and the futures was continuous, contract was 4514.75, today's 4514, 00, round number, and we're down 20 at 4484. Here again, stochastic is at 95 percent, that's fabulous, on Dow's volumes are really lagging, the strength is the great line right here, good. And we're going to be looking at the weekly charts Friday at four o'clock to see how does this improve or weaken, really important, it's above the 9p moving average and 14p moving averages in the weekly chart, and the monthly chart, you would never believe that we've been under such strenuous conditions, with higher interest rates, we'll get to that moment, as well as the interest rates, as well as the configuration going on now in Ukraine. I'm still wondering, this is really an invasion, because I don't think that Ukraine has sent one bullet, let alone any torpedoes or anything into the Russian territory, this is really strange. So what we're looking at here is the E-mini now is down 18, the QQQ, this is the NDX100 trading vehicle, now this is very interesting, this is just a single leg up from the double bottom, 318-26 low of the 24th of Feb, rally is up to a peak, B fails, comes back down and goes to a slightly lower 317.45 low, and that was the 14th, yep, the 14th of March, and now is extended higher, but hasn't gone above the high of 317.10, which was the high at peak B-minus on the 2nd of February, if it does that at any point in March, that is really good action, I can't give this an up arrow yet, I can say yep, they're getting close to a bi-signal, this is just a single leg A, Fabulous move from 317 to the 357 level of yesterday, 357.85, stopped dead at the George repeat moving average of Cardwell's resistance all the way through in February, so all I can say is let's give this a little time, I still say that although there's been a Fabulous retracement from the lows and all those terribly beaten down NASDAQ stocks, let's see what happens over the next coming few days, the week is improving, monthly chart still doesn't look very good, and IYM, the Russell 2000 traded down 75 cents at 208.75, that is, that should have been 187, this is in a bi-mode because the stochastic is at 91%, so that gets upgraded from a plus side to an up arrow, that's in leg C, and we want to see a decent close above the arch high of February the 10th, 209.05, so as it says right now, I am anticipating some kind of a digestive session today, how deep it is going to be really important to tell us what will happen on the next big move up if there is a leg D to come, if we make a peak C with a lower high in the Dow and the S&P cash today, that's really important, let's go on to the semiconductors or lagging, that's to me is just a sign to say be real careful, single leg A up is down 2.16 at 268.25, the SMH, market vector semiconductor, EDF, this is really important, I still think there is a big issue with the semiconductors, so we are going to be watching this very, very closely, and I just wanted to check on something here before we go on, is that question came in, yeah, very good, thank you, all right, got that out of the way, now the resistance here at the SMH is at about the 270 level, we are going to be watching that, only a leg A, there is a big pullback, and by the end of March, the semiconductors rather than trying for 283, we are at 268 right now, actually are down below 253, that will be a big deal, gold, gold at this point is up 7 at 1928, stuck in this little mini range right here, digesting huge gains to the 2078.80 level, I wonder if that's changed at all, 2078 not yet, it's a continuous contract, the higher of the 8th is the Eiffel Tower, straight up, straight down pattern, and now we are just going sideways to consolidate, I think this is going to go on for just a little longer, and then I think there is a chance that gold comes back as the fear factor icon and starts to rally again, Crudall is just holding so amazingly, it's 112.23 in the continuous contract, up 3, this is a grey leg A because the magnet hasn't crossed positive, it's stochastic, it's still way down at 40.41%, so I call this grey, I make it a grey right there, click, click, click, there we are grey, and then it just says, there's a chance that it can continue higher in the V shape or the cup shape formation, that will be ensouced to close in the 116.50 or higher area, that will be really positive, I think it's more in the side base range, I don't think this is going to make the full H pattern by coming back down again, all the way to the 90 level, I think that there's a chance that the 108, 106 can't contain it, we're going to look at the TLT, which is down again, down 561. 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TFNN Educating Investors Hi folks, this is the early edition 8.18 am which will be 10.18 this time when it's played in the replay at my usual time, just couldn't make it later time. Just wanted to show you in the 10 minute chart, the ES Mini, this is the June contract ran very nicely to little doji hide about 11 that was 11 am yesterday. Then it kind of went sideways and it popped up once at about just as we closed out at 4 o'clock in the afternoon. I was sure that yesterday we would make a peak C in the Dow but in fact what happened was we ran up even further and then what happened is we went sideways. You know it's incredible how long the price off the spectacular moves. You can go sideways look at this between 45, 14, 75 and 44, 97, let's call it 45, 4500. Just trade it all the way until it broke down. That was at 4.30 am this morning. Went back to say hi to the little rectangle formation friends over there and then whoops, started to slide. We did a slide too. We were looking at this I think yesterday we were talking about the 200-period moving average. Look how important it is. Fantastic support for hours. This is a 10-minute chart and finally it broke away and it broke above and then what does it come back to a few moments ago? So I started to trade right there from about 6 this morning. It's been trading in and out of that 200-period moving average and what I had done is I love to do this. I take a cluster formation on the left if this is an obvious doji candle or some trough and I create that as support and I do that all the way in to about that would have been at 840 and it hasn't broken into this area but it's touched the narrow rectangle sideways action support level of the cushion and this whole area, this cluster formation between that was 24 hours ago. That was just about between let's call it 44.83 and 44.74. That's going to be key. A break below that today says uh-oh it's going to be a lot tougher to get to that leg D this week earlier by Thursday or Friday but that would still be the action that we expect in the daily chart and if there's a nice move I'd say to subscribe to my opening call based on the way to go. So for my subscribers today you've got the smallest newsletter you've ever got just a couple of lines and the reason is I know what happened but instead of in Snagit instead of shutting down and always saying this is unlike Trace Station where I lose all the information that I hadn't saved and I have to try to either redo it or find it somewhere Snagit always saves things but today it just closed down without saving and out of the blue my template for today was just destroyed. I have to redo the whole template and the whole thing so I did a quick report saying there was only one potential buy today that's the same one that was staying in place for the last couple of days and we'll see if we get that. There's a choice even to get it if you don't want to but that's about the only thing and I wanted two stocks that we were looking at as potentials in the next couple of days to buy. So this is what I'd said and this is my daily chart and what I'd said was basically today if the Dow is holding more than a minus 60s that's greater than a minus 60s after 2pm eastern time the chance is increased for a week close. The deeper the decline the harder it will be to get to that missing leg D in the 1 to 1 extension up that's this extension right here from the 24th of January to the high of 35,824 and then repeat it from the 32,272 but it's more a sideways action on the 24th of February that takes you to about the 34,980, 35,020 level okay and this is leg C and closing down less than minus 20s would be very impressive after everything we've seen so that's how it stands right there. A couple of things we want to finish up here so I was talking about the TLT the TLT is the ISHA's 20 year treasury bond it has 20 plus whatever extra could be 25, 30 year but mostly we call it the 20 year treasury bond fund has plummeted and now look this is the very moment that we can say is there a chance in leg D in the TBT the ultra short human 20 year treasury bond is there a chance that we store here for a bit of a breather to the greats and come down just a little bit while the fed speaks comes this afternoon we'll see what happens but in this pattern that I've got here of the cup formation in the Chapman Wave I call it the gravy cup because it's a little bit lopsided but it's going back to the lip on the left side it went above the Chapman Wave inside wedge resistance line and now we're looking at 2184 in the TBT and the high I forgot to type it in was 20, oh 20 to 60, 19, 3 let me just do that 20, 20, 22.60 9, did I say 22 or something? Let me go back to see what it was that was the high of 319 good grief I got everything twisted up 319, so 319 back in 2021 was at the high of 22.60 which right now 21.85 unbelievable and now I completely forgot again, good grief what a day I got a little confused because I had to redo all my 319, I'll call it 360 and that plummeted down to the 15.60 no 15.53 low so what we're looking at here this is one of the steepest and quickest moves we've had in a while certainly the quickest on the upside and we're going to see what happens and in the ultra short Leman 20 TBT monthly chart that peak B that was made at 22.60 that at 22.61 starts a leg C to the upside that would be a breakout in the yields and talking about yields we can go to the TNX X that's the 10 year, I've already done a whole bunch of these one to one extensions to the upside, this is G slash C in the weekly chart of the 10 year yield and it's trading at 2390, 2.39% and this is already in the weekly chart that's one thing but look at the monthly look at this huge it's almost a one to one extension to the upside in the monthly chart all I can say is there's a lot of pressure for the market to have done so well under these conditions something's going on and I keep saying well wait a minute why is the SLX a new recovery high not all time high that's 68.22 but here it is at 67.33 this is amazing right ABCDE is this an air for a brand new future upside and it's both on the left side high look at that the resistance so we're trying to get back to the 68.42 level on the SLX why would Elko if you're running like this Elko at 90.55 almost at the left side I hope to watch are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's Daily Market Newsletter 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get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com this is the early edition this is going to be I couldn't make my 10 o'clock time so I'm recording it at 8 to 9 o'clock this morning we played at 10 we're looking at high grade copper up 0.03 at 4.732 this is all within the pattern that I'm looking at here is probably going to go something like this there's going to be an H formation I'm not sure it needs to go all the way back to 4.60 but I think there's digesting big gains here that's really important look at the OIH a whole bunch of questions came in there was one that came in yesterday as I was wrapping up the show I'll get to it in a moment but the OIH has the same pattern look it's got a peak D306.19 top this is the oil service ETF and it's pulled back very sharply but it's balanced quite nicely and I suspect there's a second H pattern that's going to form here a big digester phase off the spectacular move TME let me just double check yeah TME is 10 cent music ink trading up in the 32.33 area earlier this earlier last year no it was last year and then something like February and now a year later we're looking at it having gone down to 3 and it's trading at 5.10 this is in a digester phase at the bottom trying to find some kind of establish some kind of a base fantastic move from 3 to 5.10 no no no it was even higher let me give you the exact number doji candle low of 2.95 and within 6 to 7 sessions it goes to 5.33 that is a huge percentage gain but what a percentage lost going from Ohio back in March of last year exactly a year ago 32.25 gets cut down what 90 something percent from 30 yeah from 30 32 down to 2.95 yeah so I can see it having a little bit more bounce but the monthly chart says wow that's terrible the weekly chart says yeah it's trying to establish some kind of a low but the chances are that if it breaks 4.32 at any point then it's probably going to retest 4 and maybe try that gap again so that was that one then a question that Dan about oops where did it go didn't I just see something here could I look at SBA oh SBA is S S B A wait a minute SBA are you sure that you put in SBA I don't have an SBA S B A I'll do it again no I don't have one so maybe you typed in one letter that was incorrect SBA I'm not here I'm trying to guess what it could be now I can't guess oh SBA C is that right is that to say no maybe SBA C I don't know what it is at 322 SBA C is SBA Corporation that doesn't give me any clue as to what they are it's stuck that George would be moving average at 329 we just can't move above it that's a big problem it's in P I can't even see the chart I'm sorry I can't read what it is so ratio charts of the OIH to the XLE have just broken out above down transformed from red to pink last spring so let's just do that XLE of course that's energy stocks typed it in again no type it over here XLE oh I didn't mean to do that what did I do what a day first of all I can't do my opening call newsletters the way I always do it because there was a problem and I had it shut down and usually Snagit saves everything for some reason as I was exiting instead of saying save and I always said yes it just went right out so I couldn't do I had to just type in a quick opening call newsletters today we're not doing much there's one particular issue that we might add to if it gets there as an infrastructure play and actually last night the said that they're going to give 2.5 billion our way of these numbers just flying around towards infrastructure so I don't know if that's a go or it's discussing or whatever it is so XLE this is a PG in the long-legged dojin went under it that makes the area of 77.5 short-term resistance is at 75.67 right now if a size below 72 that's going to be a failure H pattern I just think it's going to digest for a little bit PG in the weekly chart leg E in the monthly chart last PG was at in May of 2018 77.63 and it's already gone above that it went to 80.22 on the 8th that's the XLE Energy S&P Select Energy Spider Fund and the OIH I don't do those ratios I just do it on a visual basis and the OIH is lagging a lot my thinking here is that if we continue like this the oil service area could in fact just be at the start of a bigger move to the upside I need just another week or two to be able to tell what that monthly chart is going to look like the MACD's good statistics only is 74% if by the end of March it's actually gone above 80% that's going to be a big deal for the oil service sector so I don't duration did anybody did was that zip I missed I didn't get the sorry those are my bad oh SLB is it SLB I'm sure it must be SLB because that is in the area we're talking about right now so this is slumbish they're all doing this slumbish Canadian company oil service makes a high most recently on the 8th with all the other oil sector stocks goes to 46.27 drops to 37.60 on the 16th a week and a half later and now it's bouncing I think it's going to stall here just for a little bit but I don't think it's going to break down at this particular point because this is the energy sector is still desperately in play there's no question about it and leg E with the MACD strong and stochastic recently right now in the weekly chart 76% but look the 90 so far above the 14 that's tremendous support unless it trades at 32.50 30 34 to 32 in the next really suddenly that 90 is going to stay above the 15 and that's the same in the weekly in the monthly chart leg D so all of them say on a purely technical chapter we basis they should be digesting and yes they are digesting it also says on a purely technical basis there is still tremendous support and unless slumber J SLB oh what was the question to add or not oh SBAC it was SBAC I'm all over to show you it's one of those days I'm just following what is being asked of me so that's slumber J but you were asking about SBAC yes this is one that in the big picture I'd say it's stuck and when I say stuck it means on a short term basis you can get some big percentage moves but on the bigger on the bigger basis unless it closes under 310 so 322 and it's called ah this is the SBA communications okay so the communications media I guess if it closes under 310 in March that that is negative for both the daily and the weekend it says you're probably going to fill the gap between 310 and maybe the 306 so at this particular point I think there's a lot of upside music yep there's a lot of let's just make it as simple as possible you see this orange 200 period exponential moving average at 329 I think I'm going to chop up and down and up and down around that until it's the size of the basis to 333 level at that stage then it's really positive right now it's just stuck not looking bad just stuck you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the 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the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV all of the oil service trans ocean offshore drilling oil and gas trading at 4.43 I'm watching this closely it's unfortunate didn't fill the gap in the 470 area but it is holding quite nice 10 cents pre-market 453. Yeah this is looking good but percentage wise you're getting here at 443 and all if it all it does is test the four area that's a 10% correction so it longer term but all of these other one was I I I E O which is the I shares US oil and gas ETF you know I I think I actually did this last night because someone else had asked me about it and I lost their data because I had to shut down Trace station I wasn't a I thought I'd save everything very nicely but for some reason maybe I didn't do this one it's one I don't usually follow I follow most of the others and the ETFs especially ones that are comprehensive that have a big picture because they are the ETF of that particular sector but this is holding very nicely this is almost at the recent high that 82.3 actually pre-market up at 8370 this is the one that's doing really well US oil and gas ETF it's even better than the O I H because this is broader so yes I like this to get it right here that's a little tough because your risk reward is different altogether but as a long-term buy-and-hold if you can scale in maybe nibble here at 83 and then plan that you wanted at 83 77 and 72 and hopefully not get the set the third one you get the two and then it really moves higher if you you don't actually want to get that third one because that's just the aberration will move to the downside and I'll say this sector is really in trouble you'd have to wait longer so preferably just two entries nibble here and add maybe five points five points or so lower maybe even six points lower if you can get it all right so a couple of things that I had questions about so could I do the wheat etc see oh that's correct yeah wheat is trading at 1134 remember I said often that huge move with the Chapman Roman candle and then a break halfway between the wick low and high the bottom part of the wick says that you're gonna retest and probably break the left side low did that and now the 1024 level is really strong support is a hundred points above that I just think it's stuck in a range for now but absolutely wheat is in play and at what point will we start to move higher we're gonna know very very soon if it doesn't go under 1024 in the next what is today by Monday but instead it breaks into the 12 13 yeah 12 13 area or higher 12 15 oh that's that's a big deal soybeans continuous contract is working its way in the rectangle formation towards the upper part of the rectangle and it's trading at 13 in the court at 1709 this is nice action as I said before the reason why we aren't continue to hold the DBA agricultural fund is because at 22 point 13 this is holding in that big rectangle formation in fact I meant to put it to expand it maybe I slipped there at it expand this rectangle to say it's just consolidating huge gains and if you're looking at corn or Khan as we say here in the Boston area sideways action high-level consolidation this is just saying these grains are it's really important this corn sauce trade not at 757 like it is right now but breaks and closes under 704 that'll say at least for this phase there's a big digestive pattern going on a quick couple of quick questions here oh yeah a CCI oh CCJ CCJ is there we go CCJ is chemical chemical corporation uranium energy look how well the uranium has done it's broken out in the weekly chart this is a 2970 pre-market it's above the high yesterday was 30.04 that's in leg E but it's a leg D in the weekly chart and leg F in the monthly uranium is on fire let's just see you you you this is the one that we've looked at very often I haven't gotten it yet they haven't got back in we've had it once before this is trading the same pattern actually this is uranium energy fuels Inc. symbol you you you you at 10.26 up 8 cents it's in play but it is making this kind of double top in the cup formation in the weekly chart and then I might pull back a little bit but I would say anywhere in the nines this is I want to look at it again because that's where it could become attractive again so that's there's an E in the daily chart okay a couple of things we need to look at here so Nike Nike had a spectacular earnings report at first then on retrospect they weren't that impressed with Nike so Nike popped up kept to hit the 50 period moving average exactly and then from the high yesterday of 100 and this from 130 900 we're always looking for gaps with round numbers 139 round number high whoops round number high it's pulled back and straightening out 132 87 so that big red candle says the breakout pattern from the Chapman we've inside check repellent zone has to become a propellant zone there's also the fat falling X formation so if it closes under a hundred and if it closes under 128 it's a big problem because it says whatever Nike said the market is disbelieving it okay EUR USD this is the Euro dollar currency pair making the arch formation but it isn't fading yet it's just making this this may have just done that over and over and over this is the first time it's held for so long since February the about the 10th or so where it made that peak be minus and turned around and created an arch formation took out decisively left side low so this is acting at 1.098 it's down just a tad the low was 1.08 was it 1.08 0 6 1 I'll never get used to these numbers and it's a little higher than that what we're all looking at is that the dollar DXY dollar is holding very well it's up 30 ticks at 90 points if I see a high level consolidation means that it's established the boundaries and those boundaries can last for quite a while if it's at a high the chances are it might make one little pop to the upside but it then wants to break to the upside and doesn't hold it comes back into the rectangle and it could slide all the way to the bottom and that would say if it breaks above 99.42 and doesn't hold for more than a day or two and then comes back to the 99 say 29 area there's a good chance that over the coming weeks it plummets down to the 97.71 low of the 10th of March but a rectangle formation can last a lot longer than your patients we're looking at that's the dollar just want to go back to gold gold now is up 5 at 1926 it is rectangle pattern on the lower range it's almost like a head and shoulders but there's this uppercase a remember the Eiffel Tower straight up and straight down I was reading so many fascinating things recently about that to do with the Eiffel Tower how it was made how they they bolted then they took it apart and sent it to America as a gift and the Americans had to put it together what a fascinating story and there was a lot of you can imagine America receiving this thing saying what are we needed for I saw blah blah blah look at today's that the reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades at TFNN we understand that it can be hard to find 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