 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope you had a great weekend. Hope everybody had a great trading day. We'll get to that in a second. Really good stuff today. Really, really good stuff today. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, thank you very much for tuning in. Thank you very much if you're brand new and finding us. All we ask is one little second of your time. Click a like button. It will help out the channel, subscribe, share all that good stuff, and hopefully we will continue to bring you good value. So a lot of things to wrap our heads around. I recorded the video, the weekend video on Friday afternoon. My daughter and son had 286 AU basketball games this weekend, so I didn't have a chance to kind of decompress over the weekend, but that was okay. We were prepared and that's the most important part. If you were watching the video, we had a very, very specific line in the sand for the bulls. If you watched the video over the weekend, you also knew, well, also know that there was a lot of news to digest. Again, Iran warned Israel that they were going to attack, right? They were going to attack over the weekend. Again, we didn't know how the market was going to react. We didn't know if there was going to be a tremendous amount of damage, a limited amount of damage or there was going to be no attack at all. And then finally somewhere around Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon, you saw the headline, there were missiles and drones and all that stuff being launched into Israel. And the first inclination that everybody thought was, well, this is it, right? You have the doomsdayers talking about this is the end of the world. This is now the start of World War III. Again, there's always the Antichrist speaking at some point. Again, I don't understand how you can go through life. And I don't care if you're short over the weekend. I don't understand how you can go through life wishing the demise of the human race, which is mind boggling to me. But hey, there are people out there like that. And again, I hope you find what you're looking for in life. But get a little love in your life, just a little bit, a little love in your heart. I think you'll be all right. But there's people like that. They started talking about the demise of the demise of the world, the start of World War III. And when the headline read in the afternoon, Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, when the futures market started trading again, you realize that the majority of the missiles, the majority of the drones, they were a fail, right? They were a fail. They were knocked down. They were deflected, whatever the case may be. And the futures where the doomsdayers talking about that the market was going to go to zero today, the futures started climbing. Okay, they started climbing. And when you woke up this morning, you saw the Dow futures up 300, the Nasdaq futures up like 120, 130. And the question was, again, we talked about this in pre-market, we were super prepared for what happened next. We were sitting there and we're saying it's very, very tough to get excited about a gap and go. Because if you guys remember last week, right, every single time we had an inclination of a gap and we actually got above the intermediate range here, what happened the next day, right? The fear of a potential war scenario and knocked down the market. Okay, so the market was very, very gingerly going into today. And when you saw a lot of stocks gap up this morning, you saw a lot of stocks gap up into supply. We always talk about it. Anytime you have technical damage, especially the day before, and you gap into supply, you're probably, if you get long, you're probably going to lose money 95% of the time. That's the whole point. It's supply. And slowly but surely you started seeing more comments come out. You started seeing different scenarios being played out. You saw a headline this morning from Tesla. We'll get to Tesla in a second. And we saw a really good initial reaction to the Goldman Sachs report. So you had financials running pre-market. You had a little bit of sigh of relief from the Wall Street community in general, that there was no initial massive attack against Israel. And the next thing you know, slowly but surely stocks started giving it up. Now, keep this in mind, if you watch the video over the weekend, we discussed very, very important things. Okay. The market was cracking. The Dow and the IWM, this is going back to just the last night's video. Okay, well, Friday's weekend's video. The Dow cracked a week ago. Okay, we broke below the 50-day moving average. We were harping on the 50-day moving average all through last week and all through the weekend video. So we knew the diamonds, right? The diamonds were below supply. We knew the IWM was below supply. And the key going to today's session was we knew that on Friday, last Friday, the S&P, the spies and the QQQs tested the 50-day moving average once again and they bounced. The only thing that we didn't know was how was the market going to react today after, right? After the initial digestion of the news, were they going to start selling the market off? Because remember, again, the macro indexes started selling off a week ago, a week and a half ago, and now we were in really place with a big line of the sand, with a huge juicy line of the sand, both in the S&P and the Nasdaq. And if you are a loyal washer guys, and this is why we say subscribe to the channel, get your notifications on. If you watched this video at any time in the last two weeks, you know how important 435 was. I was basically screaming every single day. There's no room for interpretation. 435, 435, 435, 435. And you finally started seeing the Nasdaq go from up 130 in the day to going red in the day. And the next thing you know, you had a very, very big battlefield, battle lines drawn. That was the CPI lows. That was the April 4th lows. It was 435. And I said, again, like I kept on reiterating, 50-day, right? The 50-day is the start of a trend. Okay. It's not a small thing. It's not one of those things that go, ah, it'll be back. Okay. So we lost the 435 this morning while this afternoon. And this turned out to be an absolutely huge move. Absolutely huge move. Here is the 435. What was the last time you saw an ETF, right? Get really hit that hard? That's what happens when you have technical damage and you miss on very, very key level of support. You give it up. You're going to have a lot of selling to, you know, to happen next. Now the question is, now that we have this big move here, we traded right to the next support zone, the question is what happens next? Let me break it down. So in 2022, we lost the 50-day moving average. What followed next is 90% of 2022, we were below the 50-day moving average. And we lost roughly 34% on the Nasdaq 100. Okay. This is now the first close. Okay. The first close underneath the 50-day moving average since the end of the last week of 2023. Judy, the first week of 2023. Does this mean now that the market is going to go down 20%, 30% from here? Not necessarily, right? Not necessarily. Because again, what we've done, we've seen and we witnessed in this type of scenario was that the Nasdaq has the ability to reclaim back the 50-day. Okay. It has to. Now, here's the problem. The longer we stay below the 50-day moving average, the higher probability that we are going to start getting exaggerated back down to the downside. If you're a bull, you want to, you need to. Okay. See the Nasdaq reclaim back that 435 later, like yesterday or at least today. Because the longer we build the base, the longer we build the ceiling below this 50-day moving average, the higher probability this line right here that was hit, right? This next demand zone. If it starts confirming in the next few days, again, who knows? Maybe we have a debt card bounce tomorrow. But the point is the longer we stay below the 50-day moving average, the higher probability that at some point in the next couple of days, we retest today's lows channel, we break below the channel, and then look how much room you have back down to the next support, which is roughly the 100-day SMA. And the point was me reiterating the point of that 435 level throughout of last week, we kept on saying, look, be prepared. We want you to be prepared. If you're watching this broadcast, and you're an investor, you're a trader, do not just shun away and just take it to the side, the 50-day moving average, just one of these stupid lines. Guys, technical analysis is real. It's very real. I don't know why people are in denial. It's very, very real. There's nothing random. Again, this is what we talked about on the weekend video. If you refuse to acknowledge that 50-day moving average was a big deal, then you're going to have a very, very big problem continuation underneath that 50-day through all its time won't stay below. So again, the best case scenario for the bulls, the market has a debt card bounce tomorrow and reclaims back that 50-day moving average, and everything is all good in the hood. The problem is the longer we stay, the higher probability we are going to hit, and we're going to get hit much more. So again, very, very important that the bulls in the next couple of days reclaim that 435 level, especially on the close, because if not, your yote was a first inning of what you're going to see for the foreseeable future. So it's very, very important for the bull case to reclaim back that 435 level. Same thing we talked about on the weekend video with the SPX. We talked about if it was going to lose 5107, right? If it was going to lose 5107, what was going to happen? Again, all you need to do is go back to the weekend video. We talked about these levels. This was basically my thank you for everybody tuning in. We were giving specific levels, majority on the QQQs, but we talked about the SPX as well. 5107 was the major line in the sand, and this was a massive move, guys. 5107 all the way down to 50-52. Again, any close now below 50-52, this is going to turn into a very, very aggressive move. So hopefully, you guys took advantage. If you're trading on the trading side over the weekend, all of you guys at the webinar, obviously we know what we did today, which is pretty neat. And the most important thing is now what do we do next, right? And obviously, you're going to go through a lot of charts. You're going to see a lot of broken charts. You can see a lot of charts that were strong and now are very, very close to breaking down. You're going to see a lot of charts already broke down and pretty much a mirror image of the QQQs and the S&P 500. And the key right now is to go with the trend, right, guys? Go with the trend. Don't just sit there, be a victim. Don't sit there and hope your positions come back. We talked about over the weekend, if it starts breaking down below the 50-day to start hedging your portfolio if you are a permable. So hopefully, you guys listened to what I was saying. If not, again, it's not too late, but any bounce, any initial bounce will get stuffed into supply until the bulls start reclaiming back the 50-day moving average. So let's get to the pivots. Yeah, pretty good, man. Pretty good day. Let's start off with one that confirmed a couple of days ago. I came in short a runner on, we've been talking about Rivian now for a while. We came in short a runner from this $10 area. It's $840 on Rivian. This thing, it's one more day of selling. You could see a move sub-8. So this is great. This is really, really great. And then things started really escalating very, very aggressively. AMD 16182, I believe we talked about AMD on the weekend video. 6182, if it builds below, can flush. So here is AMD. It got below the 6180 level, went all the way down initially to like 59 and change, bounced back a little bit with the market. And now this is the lowest close in the whole formation. It went down about three, four bucks after the pivot. Again, we always talk about both sides, folks. We're not in love with the stock. We're in love with the ranges. And we don't care which way. In a weird way, it was actually good on both sides. In the beginning of the day, it got above 902, went about a little under last week's hive, about 907. But this was the big one in the afternoon. 875 is your downside pivot, and Nvidia got crushed. I mean, absolutely crushed. It took out the 875. It took out last week's intermediate low and traded all the way down to 859. Just a huge, huge move on Nvidia. This was the massive one for me. I am still short overnight. We're getting into a juicy level for tomorrow, guys. Tesla, we had, again, two-sided pivot, 176 to the upside, 16850 to the downside. So that's where I got short of this 168 level. And this thing, this is now the lowest close in this whole formation. Here is the key. The January, February, March lows and the lows from two weeks ago were exactly the same number. All you got to do is look at the chart. It's exactly the same number. If Tesla confirms the March lows books, this thing is going to get just creamed tomorrow. If they give up those March lows, look at the weekly chart. Look at the weekly chart on this thing. If it gives up these weekly lows, you can see it a little bit more defined here. If it gives up these weekly lows, look how much room you have here. So Tesla is a huge line in the sand tomorrow. Absolutely huge line in the sand tomorrow on Tesla. It's running down another dollar after the close for all you guys who trade Tesla. Watch this macro level, folks. If this macro level goes, we saw today 160, 155s, 140s, 140s for short term exploration, 145s. So this is a heavy, heavy macro level coming up on Tesla for tomorrow. Here is Reddit. We talked about Reddit over the weekend video. 4172, if it builds below, can flush more. Here was Reddit. Oops, Reddit. Third time's a charm. Here was Reddit. Broke down below that 4172, traded out to 3960s. This thing looks lower, but this is the one, the creme de la creme de la creme de la creme, that everybody, again, everybody had this line in front of them. Everybody had the same information, the same chart data in front of them. The question is, did you pay attention to that level or you refused to ignore it? And now is the big, big move up the day sending the market into an absolute tizzy this morning whether this is this afternoon. 435, massive line in the sand. And here are the cues, right? Stocks trade from support and down to support, all the way down to the 430 level. So that's it guys. So hopefully everybody that watched the broadcast took advantage, put yourself in a position of strength for all you guys who are brand new to trading. Again, I don't care what opinions you have. It's not your reality, it's the reality you have. And this market, when things have good value, right? And the value gets confirmed, whether the upside or downside, there's a high probability that it's going to play out in that direction. Guys, have a great night everybody. God bless. Let's see what happens tomorrow. If we get a continuation of today's selling, we have a lot of really great value for tomorrow as well. Guys, God bless everybody. Have a great night and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.