 Chapter four of Principles of Economics. Book four. This is a LibriVox recording. All LibriVox recordings are in the public domain. For more information or to volunteer, please visit LibriVox.org. Recording by IC Jumbo. Principles of Economics. Book four by Alfred Marshall. Chapter four, The Growth of Population. Section one. The production of wealth is but a means to the sustenance of man, to the satisfaction of his wants, and to the development of his activities, physical, mental, and moral. But man himself is the chief means of the production of that wealth of which he is the ultimate aim. And this and the two following chapters will be given to some study of the supply of labour, i.e. of the growth of population in numbers, in strength, in knowledge, and in character. In the animal and vegetable world, the growth of numbers is governed by the tendency of individuals to propagate their species on the one hand, and on the other hand by the struggle for life which thins out the young before they arrive at maturity. In the human race alone, the conflict of these two opposing forces is complicated by other influences. On the one hand, regard for the future induces many individuals to control their natural impulses, sometimes with the purpose of worthily discharging their duties as parents, sometimes, as for instance at Rome under the Empire, for mean motives. And on the other hand, society exercises pressure on the individual by religious, moral, and legal sanctions, sometimes with the object of quickening, and sometimes with that of retarding the growth of population. The study of the growth of population is often spoken of as though it were a modern one. But in a more or less vague form it has occupied the attention of thoughtful men in all ages of the world. To its influence, often unavowed, sometimes not even clearly recognised, we can trace a great part of the rules, customs, and ceremonies that have been enjoined in the eastern and western world by law-givers, by moralists, and those nameless thinkers whose far-seeing wisdom has left its impress on national habits. Among vigorous races, and in times of great military conflict, they aimed at increasing the supply of males capable of bearing arms, and in the highest ages of progress they have inculcated a great respect for the sanctity of human life. But in the lowest ages they have encouraged and even compelled the ruthless slaughter of the infirm and the aged, and sometimes a certain proportion of female children. In ancient Greece and Rome, with the safety valve of the power of planting colonies, and in the presence of constant war, an increase in the number of citizens was regarded as a source of public strength, and marriage was encouraged by public opinion, and in many cases even by legislation. Though thoughtful men were even then aware that action in the contrary sense might be necessary if the responsibilities of parentage should ever cease to be burdensome. Thus Aristotle, in Politics Book 2 Chapter 6, objects to Plato's scheme for equalising property and abolishing poverty on the ground that it would be unworkable unless the state exercised a firm control over the growth of numbers. And, as Jowett points out, Plato himself was aware of this. See Laws verse 740. Also Aristotle, Politics Book 7, Section 16. The opinion formally held that the population of Greece declined from the 7th century BC and that of Rome from the 3rd has recently been called in question. See Die Bevulcarung des Altertums by Edward Meyer in the Handfuhrtabuch des Staatswissenschaften. End of footnote. In later times there may be observed, as Rosja says, a regular ebb and flow of the opinion that the state should encourage the growth of numbers. It was in full flow in England under the first two tutors, but in the course of the 16th century it slackened and turned, and it began to ebb when the abolition of the celibacy of the religious orders and the more settled state of the country had had time to give a perceptible impetus to population, the effective demand for labour having meanwhile been diminished by the increase of sheep runs and by the collapse of that part of the industrial system which had been organised by the monastic establishments. Later on the growth of the population was checked by that rise in the standard of comfort which took effect in the general adoption of wheat as the staple food of Englishmen during the first half of the 18th century. At that time there were even fears, which later inquiries showed to be unfounded, that the population was actually diminishing. Petty had forestalled some of Carey's and Wakefield's arguments as to the advantages of a dense population. Footnote. He argues that Holland is richer than it appears to be relatively to France because its people have access to many advantages that cannot be had by those who live on poorer land and are therefore more scattered. Quote. Rich land is better than coarse land of the same rent. End of quote. Political arithmetic chapter one. End of footnote. Child had argued that whatever tends to the depopulating of a country tends to the impoverishment of it and that most nations in the civilised parts of the world are more or less rich or poor proportionably to the porcity or plenty of their people and not to the sterility or fruitfulness of their land. Footnote. Discourses on trade chapter 10. Harris' essay on coins pages 32 and 3 argues to a similar effect and proposes to encourage matrimony among the lower classes bringing some privileges to those who have children, etc. End of footnote. And by the time that the world's struggle with France had attained its height when the demands for more and more troops were ever growing and when manufacturers were wanting more men for their new machinery the bias of the ruling classes was strongly flowing in favour of an increase of population. So far did this movement of opinion reach that in 1796 Pitt declared that a man who had enriched his country with a number of children had a claim on its assistance. An act passed amid the military anxieties of 1806 which granted exemptions from taxes to the fathers of more than two children born in wedlock was repealed as soon as Napoleon had been safely lodged in St Helena. Footnote. Let us, said Pitt, make relief in cases where there are a large number of children a matter of right and an honour instead of a ground for approbrium and contempt. This will make a large family a blessing and not a curse and this will draw a proper line of distinction between those who are able to provide for themselves by labour and those who after having enriched their country with a number of children have a claim on its assistance for their support. Of course he desired to discourage relief where it was not wanted. Napoleon I had offered to take under his own charge one member of any family which contained seven male children and Louis XIV, his predecessor in the slaughter of men had exempted from public taxes all those who married before the age of twenty or had more than ten legitimate children. A comparison of the rapid increase in the population of Germany with that of France was a chief motive of the order of the French Chamber in 1885 that education and board should be provided at the public expense for every seventh child in necessitous families. And in 1913 a law was passed giving bounties under certain conditions to parents of large families. The British budget bill of 1909 allowed a smaller abatement of income for fathers of families. End of footnote. Section 2 But during all this time there had been a growing feeling among those who thought most seriously on social problems that an inordinate increase of numbers, whether it strengthened the state or not must necessarily cause great misery and that the rulers of the state had no right to subordinate individual happiness to the aggrandisement of the state. In France in particular a reaction was caused as we have seen by the cynical selfishness with which the court and its adherents sacrificed the well-being of the people for the sake of their own luxury and military glory. If the humane sympathies of the physiocrats had been able to overcome the frivolity and harshness of the privileged classes of France in the 18th century would probably not have ended in tumult and bloodshed. The march of freedom in England would not have been arrested and the dial of progress would have been more forward than it is by the space of at least a generation. As it was but little attention was paid to Quesnes guarded but forcible protest. One should aim less at augmenting the population than at increasing the national income for the condition of greater comfort which is derived from a good income is preferable to that in which a population exceeds its income and is ever in urgent need of the means of subsistence. Footnote. The physiocratic doctrine with regard to the tendency of population to increase up to the margin of subsistence may be given in Turgut's words. The employer, since he has always his choice of a great number of working men, will choose that one who will work most cheaply. Thus then the workers are compelled by mutual competition to lower their price and with regard to every kind of labour the result is bound to be reached and it is reached as a matter of fact that the wages of the worker are limited to that which is necessary to procure his subsistence. Sur la formation et la distribution des richesses. Section 6. Similarly Sir James Stewart says Inquiry, Book 1, Chapter 3 The generative faculty resembles a spring loaded with a weight which always exerts itself in proportion to the diminution of resistance. When food has remained some time without augmentation or diminution generation will carry numbers as high as possible. If then food comes to be diminished the spring is overpowered the force of it becomes less than nothing inhabitants will diminish at least in proportion to the overcharge. If on the other hand food be increased the spring which stood at zero will begin to exert itself in proportion as the resistance diminishes. People will begin to be better fed they will multiply and in proportion as they increase in numbers the food will become scarce again. Sir James Stewart was much under the influence of the physiocrats and indeed in some respects imbued with continental rather than English notions of government and his artificial schemes for regulating population seem very far off from us now. See his Inquiry, Book 1, Chapter 12 of the great advantage of combining a well digested theory and a perfect knowledge of facts with the practical part of government in order to make a people multiply. End of footnote Adam Smith said but little on the question of population for indeed he wrote at one time of the culminating points of the prosperity of the English working classes but what he does say is wise and well balanced and modern in tone. Accepting the physiocratic doctrine as his basis he corrected it by insisting that the necessaries of life are not a fixed and determined quantity but have varied much from place to place and time to time and may vary more. But he did not work out this hint fully and there was nothing to lead him to anticipate the second great limitation of the physiocratic doctrine which has been made prominent in our time by the carriage of wheat from the centre of America to Liverpool for less than what had been the cost of its carriage across England. The eighteenth century wore on to its clothes and the next century began. Year by year the condition of the working classes in England became more gloomy. An astonishing series of bad harvests a most exhausting war and a change in the methods of industry that dislocated old ties combined with an judicious poor law to bring the working classes into the greatest misery they have ever suffered at all events since the beginning of the trustworthy records of English social history. Footnotes For the Bad Harvests The average price of wheat in the decade 1771 to 1780 in which Adam Smith wrote was 34 shillings and seven pence. In 1781 to 1790 it was 37 shillings and a penny. In 1791 to 1800 it was 63 shillings and six pence. In 1801 to 1810 it was 83 shillings and 11 pence and in 1811 to 1820 it was 87 shillings and six pence. For the Exhausting War Early in the last century the imperial taxes, for the greater part war taxes amounted to one fifth of the whole income of the country whereas now they are not much more than a twentieth and even of this a great part is spent on education and other benefits which government did not then afford. End of Footnotes And to crown all well-meaning enthusiasts chiefly under French influence were proposing communistic schemes which would enable people to throw on society the whole responsibility for rearing their children. Footnote Especially Godwin in his inquiry concerning political justice of 1792 it is interesting to compare Malthus's criticism of this essay with Aristotle's comments on Plato's Republic. End of Footnote Thus while the recruiting sergeant and the employer of labour were calling for measures tending to increase the growth of population more far-seeing men began to inquire whether the race could escape degradation if the numbers continued long to increase as they were then doing. Of these inquirers the chief was Malthus and his essay on the principle of population is the starting point of all modern speculations on the subject. Section 3 Malthus's reasoning consists of three parts which must be kept distinct. The first relates to the supply of labour. By a careful study of facts he proves that every people of whose history we have a trustworthy record has been so prolific that the growth of its numbers would have been rapid and continuous if it had not been checked either by a scarcity of the necessaries of life or some other cause, that is, by disease, by war, by infanticide or lastly by voluntary restraint. His second position relates to the demand for labour. Like the first it is supported by facts but by a different set of facts. He shows that up to the time at which he wrote no country, as distinguished from a city such as Rome or Venice had been able to obtain an abundant supply of the necessaries of life after its territory had become very thickly peopled. The produce which nature returns to the work of man is her effective demand for population and he shows that up to this time a rapid increase in population when already thick had not led to a proportionate increase in this demand. Footnote. But many of his critics suppose him to have stated his position much less unreservedly than he did. They have forgotten such passages as this. From a review of the state of society in former periods compared with the present I should certainly say that the evils resulting from the principle of population have rather diminished than increased even under the disadvantage of an almost total ignorance of their real cause. And if we can indulge the hope that this ignorance will be gradually dissipated it does not seem unreasonable to hope that they will be still further diminished. The increase of absolute population which will of course take place will evidently tend but little to weaken this expectation as everything depends on the relative proportions between population and food and not on the absolute number of the people. In the former part of this work it appeared that the countries which possessed the fewest people often suffered the most from the effects of the principle of population. Essay. Book 4. Chapter 12. End of footnote. Thirdly he draws the conclusion that what had been in the past was likely to be in the future and that the growth of population would be checked by poverty or some other cause of suffering unless it were checked by voluntary restraint. He therefore urges people to use this restraint and while leading lives of moral purity to abstain from very early marriages. Footnote. In the first edition of his essay, 1798 Thomas gave his argument without any detailed statement of facts though from the first he regarded it as needing to be treated in direct connection with a study of facts as is shown by his having told Prime who afterwards became the first professor of political economy at Cambridge that this theory was first suggested to his mind in an argumentative conversation which he had had with his father on the state of some other countries. Prime's recollections, page 66. American experience showed that the population, if unchecked would double at least once in 25 years. He argued that a doubled population might even in a country as thickly peopled as England was with its 7 million inhabitants conceivably though not probably double the subsistence raised from the English soil but that labour doubled again would not suffice to double the produce again. Let us then take this for our rule though certainly far beyond the truth and allow that the whole produce of the island might be increased every 25 years that is with every doubling of the population by a quantity of subsistence equal to that which it at present produces or in other words in an arithmetical progression. His desire to make himself clearly understood made him as Wagner says in his excellent introduction to the study of population Grundelgung, edition 3, page 453 put too sharp a point on his doctrine and formulate it too absolutely. Thus he got into the habit of speaking of production as capable of increasing in an arithmetical ratio and many writers think that he attached importance to the phrase itself whereas it was really only a short way of stating the utmost that he thought any reasonable person could ask him to concede. What he meant stated in modern language was that the tendency to diminishing return which is assumed throughout his argument would begin to operate sharply after the produce of the island had been doubled. Doubled labour might give doubled produce but quadrupled labour would hardly treble it Octupled labour would not quadruple it. In the second edition, 1803 he based himself on so wide and careful a statement of facts as to claim a place among the founders of historical economics. He softened and explained away many of the sharp points of his old doctrine. Though he did not abandon, as was implied in earlier editions of this work the use of the phrase arithmetical ratio. In particular he took a less despondent view of the future of the human race and dwelt on the hope that moral restraint might hold population in check and that vice and misery, the old checks, might thus be kept in abeyance. Francis Place, who was not blind to his many faults wrote in 1822 an apology for him Excellent in tone and judgement Good accounts of his work are given in Bonnars, Malthus and his work Cannons, Production and Distribution and Nicholson's Political Economy Book 1, Chapter 12 End of footnote His position with regard to the supply of population with which alone we are directly concerned in this chapter remains substantially valid. The changes which the course of events has introduced into the doctrine of population relate chiefly to the second and third steps of his reasoning. We have already noticed that the English economists of the earlier half of the last century overrated the tendency of an increasing population to press upon the means of subsistence and it was not Malthus' fault that he could not foresee the great developments of steam transport by land and by sea which have enabled Englishmen of the present generation to obtain the products of the richest lands of the earth at comparatively small cost. But the fact that he did not foresee these changes makes the second and third steps of his arguments antiquated in form though they are still in a great measure valid in substance. It remains true that unless the checks on the growth of population in force at the end of the nineteenth century are on the whole increased they are certain to change their form in places that are as yet imperfectly civilised it will be impossible for the habits of comfort prevailing in Western Europe to spread themselves over the whole world and maintain themselves for many hundred years but of this more hereafter. Footnote Taking the present population of the world at one and a half thousand millions and assuming that its present rate of increase about eight per thousand annually see Ravenstein's paper before the British Association in 1890 will continue we find that in less than two hundred years it will amount to six thousand millions or at the rate of about two hundred to the square mile of fairly fertile land Ravenstein reckons twenty-eight million square miles of fairly fertile land and fourteen millions of poor grasslands the first estimate is thought by many to be too high but allowing for this if the less fertile land be reckoned in for what it is worth the result will be about thirty million square miles as assumed above meanwhile there will probably be great improvements in the arts of agriculture and if so the pressure of population on the means of subsistence will probably be held in check for about two hundred years but not longer end of footnote section four the growth in numbers of a people depends firstly on the natural increase that is the excess of their births over their deaths and secondly on migration the number of births depends chiefly on habits relating to marriage the early history of which is full of instruction but we must confine ourselves here to the conditions of marriage in modern civilised countries the age of marriage varies with the climate in warm climates where childbearing begins early it ends early in colder climates it begins later and ends later but in every case the longer marriages are postponed beyond the age that is natural to the country the smaller is the birth rate the age of the wife being of course much more important in this respect than that of the husband footnotes on the age of childbearing of course the length of generation has itself some influence on the growth of population if it is twenty five years in one place and twenty in another and if in each place population doubles once in two generations during a thousand years the increase will be a million fold in the first place but thirty million fold in the second on the relative ages of husbands and wives Dr. Ogle in the statistical journal volume 53 calculates that if the average age of marriage of women in England were postponed five years the number of children to a marriage which is now four point two would fall to three point one Corosi basing himself on the facts of the relatively warm climate of Budapest finds eighteen to twenty the most prolific age for women twenty four to twenty six that for men but he concludes that a slight postponement of weddings beyond those ages is advisable mainly on the ground that the vitality of the children of women under twenty is generally small end of footnotes given the climate the average age of marriage depends chiefly on the ease with which young people can establish themselves and support a family according to the standard of comfort that prevails among their friends and acquaintances and therefore it is different in different stations of life in the middle classes a man's income seldom reaches its maximum until he is forty or fifty years old and the expense of bringing up his children is heavy and lasts for many years the artisan earns nearly as much at twenty one as he ever does unless he rises to a responsible post but he does not earn much before he is twenty one his children are likely to be a considerable expense to him till about the age of fifteen unless they are sent into a factory where they may pay their way at a very early age and lastly the labourer earns nearly full wages at eighteen while his children begin to pay their own expenses very early in consequence the average age at marriage is highest among middle classes it is low among the artisans and lower still among the unskilled labourers footnote the term marriage in the text must be taken in a wide sense so as to include not only legal marriages but although informal unions which are sufficiently permanent in character to involve for several years at least the practical responsibilities of married life they are often contracted at an early age and not infrequently lead up to legal marriages after the lapse of some years for this reason the average age at marriage in the broad sense of the term with which alone we are here concerned is below the average age at legal marriage the allowance to be made on this head for the whole of the working classes is probably considerable but it is very much greater in the case of unskilled labourers than of any other class the following statistics must be interpreted in the light of this remark and of the fact that all English industrial statistics are vitiated by the want of sufficient care in the classification of the working classes in our official returns the registrar general's 49th annual report states that in certain selected districts the returns of marriages for 1884 to 5 were examined with the following results the number after each occupation being the average age of bachelors in it at marriage and the following number in brackets being the average age of spinsters who married men of that occupation miners 24.06 their wives 22.46 textile hands 24.38 their wives 23.43 shoemakers and tailors 24.92 their wives 24.31 artisans 25.35 their wives 23.70 labourers 25.56 their wives 23.66 commercial clerks 26.25 their wives 24.43 shopkeepers and shopmen 26.67 their wives 24.22 farmers and sons 29.23 their wives 26.91 professional and independent class 31.22 their wives 26.40 Dr. Ogle in the paper already referred to shows that the marriage rate is greatest generally in those parts of England in which the percentage of those women between 15 and 25 years of age who are industrially occupied is the greatest this is no doubt due as he suggests partly to the willingness of men to have their money incomes supplemented by those of their wives but it may be partly due also to an excess of women of a marriageable age in those districts end of footnote unskilled labourers when not so poor as to suffer actual want is not restrained by any external cause have seldom if ever shown a lower power of increase than that of doubling in 30 years that is of multiplying a million fold in 600 years a billion fold in 1200 and hence it might be inferred a priori that their increase has never gone on without restraint for any considerable time this inference is confirmed by the teaching of all history throughout Europe during the Middle Ages and in some parts of it even up to the present time unmarried labourers have usually slept in the farmhouse or with their parents while a married pair have generally required a house for themselves when a village has as many hands as it can well employ the number of houses is not increased and young people have to wait as best they can there are many parts of Europe even now each custom exercising the force of law prevents more than one son in each family from marrying he is generally the eldest but in some places the youngest if any other son marries he must leave the village when great material prosperity and the absence of all extreme poverty are found in old fashioned corners of the old world the explanation generally lies in some such custom as this with all its evils and hardships footnote thus a village to the valley Yachenau in the Bavarian Alps about 1880 found this custom still in full force aided by a great recent rise in the value of their woods with regard to which they had pursued a far-seeing policy the inhabitants lived prosperously in large houses the younger brothers and sisters acting as servants in their old homes or elsewhere they were of a different race from the work people in the neighbouring valleys who lived poor and hard lives but seemed to think that the Yachenau purchased its material prosperity at too great a cost end of footnote it is true that the severity of this custom may be tempered by the power of migration but in the middle ages the free movement of the people was hindered by stern regulations the free towns indeed often encouraged immigration from the country but the rules of the guilds were in some respects almost as cruel to people who tried to escape from their old homes as were those enforced by the feudal lords themselves section five in this respect the position of the hired agricultural labourer has changed very much the towns are now always open to him and his children and if he betakes himself to the new world he is likely to succeed better than any other class of emigrants but on the other hand the gradual rise in the value of land and its growing scarcity is tending to check the increase of population in some districts in which the system of peasant properties prevails in which there is not much enterprise for opening out new trades or for emigration and parents feel that the social position of their children will depend on the amount of their land they inclined to limit artificially the size of their families and to treat marriage very much as a business contract seeking always to marry their sons to heiresses Francis Galton pointed out that though the families of the English peers are generally large the habits of marrying the eldest son to an heiress who is presumably not of a fertile stock and sometimes dissuading younger sons from marriage have led to the extinction of many peerages similar habits among French peasants combined with their preference for small families keep their numbers almost stationary on the other hand there seem to be no conditions more favourable to the rapid growth of numbers than those of the agricultural districts of new countries land is to be had in abundance railways and steamships carry away the produce of the land and bring back in exchange implements of advanced types and many of the comforts and luxuries of life the farmer, as the peasant proprietor is called in America finds therefore that a large family is not a burden but an assistance to him he and they live healthy out-of-door lives there is nothing to check but everything to stimulate the growth of numbers the natural increase is aided by immigration and thus in spite of the fact that some classes of the inhabitants of large cities in America are it is said reluctant to have many children the population has increased 16 fold in the last 100 years footnote the extreme prudence of peasant proprietors under stationary conditions was noticed by Malthus see his account of Switzerland essay book 2 chapter 5 Adam Smith remarked that poor Highland women frequently had 20 children of whom not more than two reached maturity wealth of nations book 1 chapter 8 and the notion that want stimulated fertility was insisted on by double day true law of population see also Sadler law of population Herbert Spencer seemed to think it probable that the progress of civilization will of itself hold the growth of population completely in check but Malthus's remark that the reproductive power is less in barbarous than in civilized races has been extended by Darwin to the animal and vegetable kingdom generally Mr. Charles Booth statistical journal 1893 has divided London into 27 districts chiefly registration districts and arranged them in order of poverty of overcrowding of high birth rate and of high death rate he finds that the four orders are generally the same the excess of birth rate over death rate is lowest in the very rich and the very poor districts the birth rate in England and Wales is nominally diminishing at about an equal rate in both town and country but the continuous migration of young persons from rural to industrial areas has considerably depleted the ranks of young married women in the rural districts and when allowance is made for this fact we find that the percentage of birth to women of childbearing age is much higher in them than in the towns as is shown by the following table published by the Registrar General in 1907 the urban part of the table is headed 20 large towns with an aggregate population of 9,742,404 persons at the date of the census of 1901 the table compares the rate of increase of population as time goes by the first comparison is calculated on the total population in 1870-72 population grew by 36.7 per thousand people in 1880-82 population grew by 35.7 which as a percentage of the 1870-72 figure is 97.3 in 1890-92 population grew by 32 per thousand 87.2% of the 1870-72 figure in 1900-1902 population grew by 29.8 per thousand which is 81.2% of the 70-72 figure when calculated on the female population aged 15-45 years population increase goes as follows in 1870-72 population grew by 143.1 per thousand people in 1880-82 population grew by 140.6 which is 98.3% of the 70-72 figure in 1890-92 population grew by 124.6 per thousand which is 87.1% of the 70-72 figure and in 1900-1902 population grew by 111.4 per thousand which is 77.8% of the 70-72 figure second part of the table deals with rural districts 112 entirely rural registration districts with an aggregate population of 1,330,319 persons at the date of the census of 1901 the first set of figures is calculated on the total population in 1870-72 the population grew by 31.6 per thousand individuals in 1880-82 population grew by 30.3 individuals per thousand which is 95.9% of the 1870-72 figure in 1890-92 population grew by 27.8 individuals per thousand which is 88.0% of the 70-72 figure in 1900-1902 population grew by 26.0 individuals per thousand which is 82.3% of the 70-72 figure when calculated on the female population aged 15-45 years we have the following figures 1870-72 population grew by 158.9 per thousand individuals in 1880-82 population grew by 153.5 per thousand individuals which is 96.6% of the 70-72 figure in 1890-92 population grew by 135.6 which is 85.3% of the 70-72 figure and in 1900-1902 population grew by 120.7 which is 76% of the 1870-72 figure end of the table the movements of the population of France have been studied with exceptional care and the great work on the subject by Le Vaseur, La Population Francaise is a mine of valuable information as regards other nations besides France Montesquieu, reasoning perhaps rather a priori accused the law of primogeniture which ruled in his time in France of reducing the number of children in a family and La Plie brought the same charge against the law of compulsory division Le Vaseur calls attention to the contrast and notes that Malthus' expectations of the effect of the civil code on population were in harmony with Montesquieu's rather than La Plie's diagnosis but in fact the birth rate varies much from one part of France to another it is generally lower where a large part of the population owns land than where it does not if however the departments of France be arranged in groups in ascending order of the property left at death valeur successurale par tête d'habitant the corresponding birth rate descends almost uniformly being 23 per 100 married women between 15 and 50 years for the 10 departments in which the property left is between 48 and 57 francs and 13.2 for the Seine where it is 412 francs and in Paris itself the arrondissement inhabited by the world to do show a smaller percentage of families with more than two children than the poorer arrondissements show there is much interest in the careful analysis which Le Vaseur gives of the connection between economic conditions and birth rate his general conclusion being that it is not direct but indirect through the mutual influence of the two on manners and the habit of life Meurs he appears to hold that however much the decline in the numbers of the French relatively to surrounding nations may be regretted from the political and military points of view there is much good mixed with the evil in its influences on material comfort and even social progress end of footnote on the whole it seems proved that the birth rate is generally lower among the world to do than among those who make little expensive provision for the future of themselves and their families and who live an active life and that fecundity is diminished by luxurious habits of living probably it is also diminished by severe mental strain that is to say given the natural strength of the parents their expectation of a large family is diminished by a great increase of mental strain of course those who do high mental work have as a class more than the average of constitutional and nervous strength and Galton has shown that they are not as a class unprolific but they commonly marry late section six the growth of population in England has a more clearly defined history than that in the United Kingdom and we shall find some interest in noticing its chief movements the restraints on the increase of numbers during the Middle Ages were the same in England as elsewhere in England as elsewhere the religious orders were a refuge to those for whom no establishment in marriage could be provided and religious celibacy while undoubtedly acting in some measure as an independent check on the growth of population is in the main to be regarded rather as a method in which the broad natural forces tending to restrain population express themselves than as an addition to them infectious and contagious diseases both endemic and epidemic were caused by dirty habits of life which were even worse in England than in the south of Europe and famines by the failures of good harvests and the difficulties of communication though this evil was less in England than elsewhere country life was, as elsewhere, rigid in its habits young people found it difficult to establish themselves until some other married pair had passed from the scene and made a vacancy in their own parish for migration to another parish was seldom thought of by an agricultural labourer under ordinary circumstances consequently whenever plague or war or famine thinned the population there were always many waiting to be married who filled the vacant places and being perhaps younger and stronger than the average of newly married couples had larger families footnote thus we are told that after the black death of 1349 most marriages were very fertile end of footnote there was, however, some movement even of agricultural labourers towards districts which had been struck more heavily than their neighbours by pestilence by famine or the sword moreover, artisans were often more or less on the move and this was especially the case with those who were engaged in the building trades and those who worked in metal and wood though no doubt the wander years were chiefly those of youth and after these were over the wanderer was likely to settle down in the place in which he was born again, there seems to have been a good deal of migration on the part of the retainers of the landed gentry especially of the greater barons who had seats in several parts of the country and lastly, in spite of the selfish exclusiveness which the guilds developed as years went on the towns offered in England, as elsewhere a refuge to many who could get no good openings for work and for marriage in their own homes in these various ways some elasticity was introduced into the rigid system of medieval economy and population was able to avail itself in some measure of the increased demand for labour which came gradually with the growth of knowledge the establishment of law and order and the development of oceanic trade footnote there is no certain knowledge to be had as to the density of population in England before the 18th century but the following estimates reproduced from Steffen Geschichte der englischen Lohn-Arbeiter are probably the best as yet available Doomsday Book suggests that in 1086 the population of England was between two and two and a half millions just before the Black Death in 1348 it may have been between three and a half and four and a half millions and just afterwards two and a half millions it began to recover quickly but made slow progress between 1400 and 1550 it increased rather fast in the next hundred years and reached five and a half millions in 1700 if we are to trust Harrison in description of England Book 2 Chapter 16 the master of men able for service in 1574 amounted to one million one hundred and seventy two thousand six hundred and seventy four the Black Death was England's one very great calamity she was not like the rest of Europe liable to devastating wars such as the Thirty Years War which destroyed more than half the population of Germany a loss which it required a full century to recover End of Footnote In the latter half of the 17th and the first half of the 18th century the central government exerted itself to hinder the adjustment of the supply of population in different parts of the country to the demand for it by settlement laws which made anyone chargeable to a parish who had resided there forty days but ordered that he might be sent home by force at any time within that period Footnote Adam Smith is justly indignant at this the act recites that by reason of some defects in the law poor people are not restrained from going from one parish to another and thereby do endeavour to settle themselves in those parishes where there is the best stock the largest wastes or commons to build cottages and the most woods for them to burn and destroy etc and it is therefore ordered that upon complaint made within forty days after any such person or persons coming so as to settle as foresaid in any tenement under the yearly value of ten pounds it shall be lawful for any two justices of the peace to remove and convey such person or persons to such parish where he or they were last legally settled several acts purporting to soften its harshness had been passed before Adam Smith's time but they had been ineffective in 1795 however it was ordered that no one should be removed until he became actually chargeable End of Footnote Landlords and farmers were so eager to prevent people from getting a settlement in their parish that they put great difficulties in the way of building cottages and sometimes even raised them to the ground In consequence the agricultural population of England was stationary during the hundred years ending with 1760 while the manufacturers were not yet sufficiently developed to absorb large numbers This retardation in the growth of numbers was partly caused by, and partly a cause of a rise in the standard of living a chief element of which was an increased use of wheat in the place of inferior grains as the food of the common people Footnote Some interesting remarks on this subject are made by Eden in The History of the Poor Book 1 pages 560 to 64 End of Footnote From 1760 onwards those who could not establish themselves at home found little difficulty in getting employment in the new manufacturing or mining districts where the demand for workers often kept the local authorities from enforcing the removal clauses of the Settlement Act To these districts young people resorted freely and the birth rate in them became exceptionally high but so did the death rate also The net result being a fairly rapid growth of population At the end of the century when Malthus wrote the poor laws again began to influence the age of marriage but this time in the direction of making it unduly early The sufferings of the working classes caused by a series of famines and by the French war made some measure of relief necessary and the need of large bodies of recruits for the army and navy was an additional inducement to tender-hearted people to be somewhat liberal in their allowances to a large family With the practical effect of making the father of many children often able to procure more indulgences for himself without working then he could have got by hard work if he had been unmarried or had only a small family Those who availed themselves of most of this bounty were naturally the laziest and meanest of the people Those with the least self-respect and enterprise So although there was in the manufacturing towns a fearful mortality particularly of infants the quantity of the people increased fast but its quality improved little if at all till the passing of the new poor law in 1834 Since that time the rapid growth of the town population has as we shall see in the next chapter tended to increase mortality but this has been counteracted by the growth of temperance of medical knowledge of sanitation and of general cleanliness emigration has increased the age of marriage has been slightly raised and a somewhat less proportion of the whole population are married but on the other hand the ratio of births to a marriage has risen with the result that the population has been growing very nearly steadily Footnotes On the ratio of births to marriage but this increase in the figures shown is partly due to improved registration of births On the steady growth of population the following tables show the growth of the population of England and Wales from the beginning of the 18th century The figures before 1801 are computed from the register of births and deaths and the poll and hearth tax returns those since 1801 from census returns It will be noticed that the numbers increased nearly as much in the 20 years following 1760 as in the preceding 60 years The pressure of the Great War and the high price of corn is shown in the slow growth between 1790 and 1801 and the effects of indiscriminate poor law allowances in spite of greater pressure is shown by the rapid increase in the next 10 years and the still greater increase when that pressure was removed in the decade ending 1821 The third column shows the percentage which the increase during the preceding decade was of the population at the beginning of that decade In 1700 the population was 5,475,000 1710 5,240,000 a decrease of 4.9% 1720 5,565,000 an increase of 6.2% 1730 5,796,000 an increase of 4.1% 1740 6,064,000 4.6% increase In 1750 6,467,000 an increase of 6.6% 1760 6,736,000 an increase of 4.1% 1770 7,428,000 a 10.3% increase 1780 7,953,000 a 7.1% increase 1790 8,675,000 a 9.1% increase In 1801 8,892,000 a 2.5% increase In 1811 10,164,000 a 14.3% increase In 1821 12,000,000 an 18.1% increase In 1831 13,897,000 a 15.8% increase 1841 15,909,000 a 14.5% increase 1851 17,928,000 a 12.7% increase In 1861 20,066,000 an 11.9% increase In 1871 22,712,000 a 13.2% increase In 1881 25,974,000 a 14.4% increase In 1891 29,002,000 an 11.7% increase And in 1901 32,527,000 an 11.7% increase The great growth of immigration during recent years makes it important to correct the figures for the last three decades so as to show the natural increase is that due to the excess of births over deaths the net emigration from the United Kingdom during the decades 1871 to 1881 and 1881 to 1991 was 1,480,000 and 1,747,000 respectively End of footnote Let us examine the course of recent changes a little more closely Section 7 Early in this century when wages were low and wheat was dear the working classes generally spent more than half their income on bread and consequently a rise in the price of wheat diminished marriages very much among them that is it diminished very much the number of marriages by bans but it raised the income of many members of the world's due classes and therefore often increased the number of marriages by license since however these were but a small part of the whole the net effect was to lower the marriage rate footnote for instance representing the price of wheat in shillings and the number of marriages in England and Wales in thousands we have for 1801 wheat at 119 and marriages at 67 for 1803 wheat at 59 and marriages at 94 for 1805 the numbers are 90 and 80 for 1807 they are 75 and 84 for 1812 they are 126 and 82 for 1815 they are 66 and 100 for 1817 they are 97 and 88 for 1822 for 1845 and 99 end of footnote but as time went on the price of wheat fell and wages rose till now the working classes spend on the average less than a quarter of their incomes on bread and in consequence the variations of commercial prosperity have got to exercise a preponderating influence on the marriage rate footnote for 1820 the average price of wheat has seldom exceeded 60 shillings and never 75 shillings and the successive inflations of commerce which culminated and broke in 1826 1836-9 1848 1856 1866 and 1873 exercised an influence on the marriage rate about equal with changes in the price of corn when the two causes act together the effects are very striking thus between 1829 and 1834 there was a recovery of prosperity accompanied by a steady fall in the price of wheat and marriages rose from 104 to 121,000 the marriage rate rose again rapidly between 1842 and 1845 when the price of wheat was a little lower than in the preceding years and the business of the country was reviving and again under similar circumstances between 1847 and 1853 and between 1862 and 1865 a comparison of the marriage rate with the harvests in Sweden for the years 1749 to 1883 is given by Sir Rawson Rawson in the statistical journal for December 1885 the harvest does not declare itself till part of the year's tale of marriages is made up and further the inequalities of harvests are to some extent compensated for by the storage of grain and therefore the individual harvest figures do not correspond closely with the marriage rate but when several good or bad harvests come together the effect in increasing or diminishing the marriage rate is very clearly marked End of footnote Since 1873 though the average real income of the population of England has indeed been increasing its rate of increase has been less than in the preceding years and meanwhile there has been a continuous fall of prices and consequently a continuous fall in the money incomes of many classes of society now people are governed in their calculations as to whether they can afford to marry or not more by the money income which they expect to be able to get than by elaborate calculations of changes in its purchasing power and therefore the standard of living among the working classes has been rising rapidly perhaps more rapidly than at any other time in English history their household expenditure measured in money has remained about stationary and measured in goods has increased very fast meanwhile the price of wheat has also fallen very much and a marked fall in the marriage rate for the whole country has often accompanied a marked fall in the price of wheat the marriage rate is now reckoned on the basis that each marriage involves two persons and should therefore count for two the English rate fell from 17.6 per thousand in 1873 to 14.2 in 1886 it rose to 16.5 in 1899 in 1907 it was 15.8 but in 1908 only 14.9 footnote statistics of exports are among the most convenient indications of the fluctuations of commercial credit and industrial activity and in the article already quoted Ogle has shown a correspondence between the marriage rate and the exports per head compare diagrams in volume 2 page 12 of Le Vasseur's La Population Francaise and with regard to Massachusetts by Wilcox in the Political Science Quarterly volume 8 pages 76 to 82 Ogle's enquiries have been extended and corrected in a paper read by R.H. Hooker before the Manchester Statistical Society in January 1898 who points out that if the marriage rate fluctuates the birth rate during an ascending phase of the marriage rate is apt to correspond to the marriage rate not for that phase but for the preceding phase when the marriage rate was declining and vice versa hence the ratio of birth to marriages declines when the marriage rate is rising and rises when the marriage rate falls a curve representing the ratio of birth to marriages will move inversely to the marriage rate he points out that the decline in the ratio of birth to marriages is not great and is accounted for by the rapid decline of illegitimate births the ratio of legitimate birth to marriages is not declining perceptibly end of footnote there is much to be learnt from the history of population in Scotland and in Ireland in the lowlands of Scotland a high standard of education the development of mineral resources and close contact with their richer English neighbours have combined to afford a great increase of average income to a rapidly increasing population on the other hand the inordinate growth of population in Ireland before the potato famine in 1847 and its steady diminution since that time will remain forever landmarks in economic history comparing the habits of different nations we find that in the Teutonic countries of central and northern Europe the age of marriage is kept late partly in consequence of the early years of manhood being spent in the army but that it has been very early in Russia where at all events under the old regime the family group insisted on the sons bringing a wife to help in the work of the household as early as possible even if he had to leave her for a time and go to earn his living elsewhere in the United Kingdom and America there is no compulsory service and men marry early in France contrary to general opinion early marriages on the part of men are not rare while on the part of women they are more common than in any country for which we have statistics except the Slavonic countries where they are much the highest footnote the preceding statements are based chiefly on statistics arranged by the late Signore Baudiot by Monsieur Le Vasseur, La Population Francaise and by the English Registrar General in his report for 1907 end of footnote the marriage rate, the birth rate and the death rate are diminishing in almost every country but the general mortality is high where the birth rate is high for instance both are high in Slavonic countries and both are low in the north of Europe the death rates are low in Australasia and the natural increase there is fairly high though the birth rate is low and falling very fast in fact it's fall in the various states ranged from 23 to 30% in the period 1881 to 1901 footnote much instructive and suggestive matter connected with the subject of this chapter is contained in the statistical memoranda and charts relating to public health and social conditions published by the local government board in 1909 end of footnote end of chapter 4 Chapter 5 of Principles of Economics Book 4 this is a LibriVox recording all LibriVox recordings are in the public domain for more information or to volunteer please visit LibriVox.org Principles of Economics Book 4 by Alfred Marshall Chapter 5 the health and strength of the population we have next to consider the conditions on which depend health and strength physical, mental and moral they are the basis of industrial efficiency on which the production of material wealth depends while conversely the chief importance of material wealth lies in the fact that when wisely used it increases the health and strength physical, mental and moral of the human race in many occupations industrial efficiency requires little else than physical vigor that is muscular strength a good constitution and energetic habits in estimating muscular or indeed any other kind of strength for industrial purposes we must take account of the number of hours in the day of the number of days in the year and the number of years in the lifetime during which it can be exerted but with this precaution we can measure a man's muscular exertion by the number of feet through which his work would raise a pound weight if it were applied directly to this use or in other words by the number of foot pounds of work that he does although the power of sustaining great muscular exertion seems to rest on constitutional strength and other physical conditions yet even it depends also on force of will and strength of character energy of this kind which may perhaps be taken to be the strength of the man as distinguished from that of his body is moral rather than physical but yet it depends on the physical condition of nervous strength this strength of the man himself this resolution energy and self mastery or in short this figure is the source of all progress it shows itself in great deeds in great thoughts and in the capacity for true religious feeling vigor works itself out in so many forms that no simple measure of it is possible but we are all of us constantly estimating vigor and thinking of one person as having more backbone more stuff in him or as being a stronger man than another businessmen even in different trades and university men even when engaged in different studies get to estimate one another's strength very closely it soon becomes known if less strength is required to get a first class in one study than another in discussing the growth of numbers a little has been said incidentally of the causes which determine length of life but they are in the main the same as those which determine constitutional strength and vigor and they will occupy our attention again in the present chapter the first of these causes is the climate in warm countries we find early marriages and high birth rates and in consequence a low respect for human life this is probably been the cause of a great part of the high mortality that is generally attributed to the in-celebrity of the climate vigor depends partly on race qualities but these so far as they can be explained at all seem to be chiefly due to climate climate has also a large share in determining the necessaries of life the first of which is food much depends on the proper preparation of food and a skilled housewife with ten shillings a week to spend on food will often do more for the health and strength of her family than an unskilled one with twenty the great mortality of infants among the poor is largely due to the want of care and judgment in preparing their food and those who do not entirely succumb to this want of motherly care often grow up with enfeebled constitutions in all ages of the world except the present want of food has caused wholesale destruction of the people even in London in the 17th and 18th centuries the mortality was 8% greater in years of dear corn than in years of cheap corn but gradually the effects of increased wealth and improved means of communication are making themselves felt nearly all over the world the severity of famines is mitigated even in such a country as India and they are unknown in Europe and in the new world in England now want of food is scarcely ever the direct cause of death but it is a frequent cause of that general weakening of the system which renders it unable to resist disease and it is a chief cause of industrial inefficiency we have already seen that the necessaries for efficiency vary with the nature of the work to be done but we must now examine this subject a little more closely as regards muscular work in particular there is a close connection between the supply of food that a man has and his available strength if the work is intermittent as that of some dock laborers a cheap but nutritious grain diet is sufficient but for very heavy continuous strain such as is involved in puddlers and the hardiest navies work food is required which can be digested and assimilated even when the body is tired this quality is still more essential in the food of the higher grades of labor whose work involves great nervous strain though the quantity required by them is generally small after food the next necessaries of life and labor are clothing, house room and firing when they are deficient the mind becomes torpid and ultimately the physical constitution is undermined when clothing is very scanty it is generally worn night and day and the skin is allowed to be enclosed in a crust of dirt a deficiency of house room or a fuel causes people to live in a vitiated atmosphere which is injurious to health and vigor and not the least of the benefits which the English people derive from the cheapness of coal is the habit peculiar to them of having well ventilated rooms even in cold weather badly built houses with imperfect drainage cause diseases which even in their slider forms weaken vitality in a wonderful way and overcrowding leads to moral evils which diminish the numbers and lower the character of the people rest is essential for the growth of a vigorous population as the more material necessaries of food, clothing, etc overwork of every form lowers vitality while anxiety worry and excessive mental strain have a fatal influence in undermining the constitution in impairing fecundity and diminishing the vigor of the race next come three closely allied conditions of vigor namely hopefulness freedom and change all history is full of the record of inefficiency caused in varying degrees by slavery serfdom and other forms of civil and political oppression and repression in all ages colonies have been apt to outstrip their mother countries in vigor and energy this has been partly due to the abundance of land and the cheapness of necessaries at their command partly to that natural selection of the strongest characters for a life of adventure and partly to physiological causes connected with the mixture of races but perhaps the most important cause of all is to be found in the hope the freedom and the changefulness of their lives freedom so far has been regarded as freedom from external bonds but that higher freedom which comes of self mastery is an even more important condition for the highest work the elevation of the ideals of life on which this depends is due on the one side to political and economic causes and on the other to personal and religious influences among which the influence of the mother in early childhood is supreme bodily and mental health and strength are much influenced by occupation at the beginning of this century the conditions of factory work were needlessly unhealthy and oppressive for all and especially for young children but factory and education acts have removed the worst of these evils from factories though many of them still linger about domestic industries and the smaller workshops the higher wages the greater intelligence and the better medical facilities of townspeople should cause infant mortality to be much lower among them than in the country but it is generally higher especially where there are many mothers who neglect their family duties in order to earn money wages in almost all countries there is a constant migration towards the towns the large towns and especially London absorb the very best blood from all the rest of England the most enterprising the most highly gifted those with the highest physique and the strongest characters go there to find scope for their abilities an increasing number of those are the most capable and have most strength of character live in suburbs where excellent systems of drainage water supply and lighting together with good schools and opportunities for open airplay give conditions at least as conducive to vigor as are to be found in the country and though there are still many town districts only a little less injurious to vitality than where large towns generally some time ago yet on the whole the increasing density of population seems to be for the present a diminishing source of danger the recent rapid growth of facilities for living far from the chief centers of industry and trade must indeed slacken in time but there seems no sign of any slackening in the movement of industries outwards to suburbs and even to new garden cities to seek and to bring with them vigorous workers statistical averages are indeed unduly favorable to urban conditions partly because many of the town influences which lower vigor do not much affect mortality and partly because the majority of immigrants into the towns are in the full strength of youth and of more than average energy and courage while young people whose parents live in the country generally go home when they become seriously ill there is no better use for public and private money than in providing public parks and playgrounds in large cities in contracting with railways to increase the number of the workmen's trains run by them and in helping those of the working classes who are willing to leave the large towns to do so and to take their industries with them and there are yet other causes for anxiety for there is some partial arrest of that selective influence of struggle and competition which in the earlier stages of civilization caused those who were strongest and most vigorous to leave the largest progeny behind them and which more than any other single cause the progress of the human race is due in the later stages of civilization the rule has indeed long been that the upper classes marry late and in consequence have fewer children than the working classes but this has been compensated for by the fact that among the working classes themselves the old rule was held and the vigor of the nation that is tending to be damped out among the upper classes is thus replenished by the fresh stream of strength that is constantly welling up from below but in France for a long time and recently in America and England some of the abler and more intelligent of the working class population have shown signs of a disinclination to have large families and this is a source of danger thus there are increasing reasons for fearing that while the progress of medical science and sanitation is saving from death a continually increasing number of the children of those who are feeble physically and mentally many of those who are most thoughtful and best endowed with energy enterprise and self control are tending to defer their marriages and in other ways to limit the number of children whom they leave behind them the motive is sometimes selfish and perhaps it is best that hard and frivolous people should leave but few descendants of their own type but more often it is a desire to secure a good social position for their children this desire contains many elements that fall short of the highest ideals of human aims and in some cases a few that are distinctly base but after all it has been one of the chief factors of progress and those who are affected by it include many of those whose children would probably be among the best and strongest of the race it must be remembered that the members of a large family educate one another they are usually more genial and bright often more vigorous in every way than the members of a small family partly no doubt this is because their parents were of unusual vigour and for a like reason they in their turn are likely to have large and vigorous families the progress of the race is due to a much greater extent than appears at first sight to the descendants of a few exceptionally large and vigorous families but on the other hand there is no doubt that the parents can often do better in many ways for a small family than a large one other things being equal and increase in the number of children who are born causes an increase of infantile mortality and that is an unmixed evil the birth of children who die early from want of care and adequate means is a useless strain to the mother and an injury to the rest of the family there are other considerations of which account ought to be taken but so far as the points discussed in this chapter are concerned it seems prima facia advisable that people should not bring children into the world till they can see their way to giving them at least as good an education both physical and mental as they themselves had and that it is best to marry moderately early provided there is sufficient self-control to keep the family within the requisite bounds without transgressing moral laws the general adoption of these principles of action combined with an adequate provision of fresh air and of healthy play for our town populations could hardly fail to cause the strength and vigor of the race to improve and we shall presently find reasons for believing that if the strength and vigor of the race improves the increase of numbers will not for a long time to come cause a diminution of the average real income of the people thus then the progress of knowledge and in particular of medical science the ever-growing activity and wisdom of government in all matters relating to health and the increase of material wealth all tend to lessen mortality and to increase health and strength and to lengthen life on the other hand vitality is lowered and the death rate raised by the rapid increase of town life and by the tendency of the higher strains of the population to marry later and to have fewer children than the lower if the former set of causes were alone in action but so regulated as to avoid the danger of overpopulation it is probable that man would quickly rise to a physical and mental excellence superior to any that the world has yet known while if the latter set acted unchecked he would speedily degenerate as it is the two sets hold one another very nearly in balance the former slightly preponderating while the population of England is growing nearly as fast as ever those who are out of health and body or mind are certainly not an increasing part of the whole the rest are much better fed and clothed and except in overcrowded industrial districts are generally growing in strength the average duration of life both for men and women has been increasing steadily for many years End of Chapter 5