 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network It is June 21st, which means summer is finally officially here What better time to dive fully into some baseball than today. We're gonna do a full breakdown tonight's baseball slate I got seven games kicking off from a 640 p.m. On or later over at fatal sports before to break down my favorite money lines for tonight We'll talk about a strikeout prop on a home run prop as well both in the same game Both should be a whole lot of fun. So let's dive on in now and get you ready What should be a delightful night over on the diamond welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and Number fire comm my name is Jim son of Siamese senior writer and analyst for a number fire here to break down some MLB bets for today that I'm liking based on my models and Letting you know where I'm seeing value over at Bandual sports book before today before I dive in though quick reminder to make sure You're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We are here to the covering the spread podcast feed We are here every weekday breaking down our career bets across PGA MLB NASCAR UFC Coming up with Austin Swain tomorrow as well on the same place So just search for the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify also quick fun announcement for the podcast 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help at orc in a new york 1-8778 open wire text open Y and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Let's dig in now to the mlb slate for tonight over at fan dual sports But we'll start things off with the three money lines I like most the first one is in a game where you can't get a better number elsewhere So as always make sure you shop around and I try to identify the best number, but even at plus 146 I show value in the Oakland A's to defeat the Cleveland Guardians for tonight again The plus 146 is at Fandle you can get plus 160 at some other books So as always shop around and get the best number The reason I show value even if the shorter number is because I've got the A's win-offs at 44% to win tonight Which may seem pretty high given that they are on the road and facing a Cleveland team that has had some pretty big aspirations for this year But there are a couple things pushing my model this direction The first one is that Paul Blackburn has looked really nice to open this year using a slider that he used Very little last year using it more often this year and it's worked out very well Blackburn the A starter for today has a 25% strikeout rate and 10.9% swinging strike rate versus numbers of 19% last year and 9.6% respectively so up big time in both those numbers and That's impressive when you consider that two of those four starts came against the rays and the braids So tough match-ups Blackburn looked really good in numbers that stabilize pretty quickly They're not going to stabilize across four starts But they stabilize a lot more quickly than results based stuff will and Blackburn's results have been good as well He's facing Gavin Williams making his debut for today and Williams started the year down in double A Got promoted to triple A pretty much right away and looked really really good there getting a lot of strikeouts good results for Williams So there is a reason he is starting for today for Cleveland He did struggle with walks and he's not a big ground ball pitcher though So it's not as if Williams comes up with a totally flawless profile. So He could come up and be Outstanding right away, especially given that the A's have not seen this guy before So there's no book to go off of for them They can watch film of triple A and stuff like that, but they have not seen him in person yet I do think that does matter So maybe Williams comes out and uses that debut bump to really obliterated not very good offense But the Guardians offense also is not very good. So to me honestly I think I'm just lower on the Guardians in general and that leads to me showing value in the A's So again, the number at Fandall sports book is plus 146. I've got this at 44% so quite a bit of value there shop around and See what the best number you can get is but even if the best number you can get is that Fandall plus 146 I would still say the A's are a value there Second money line for me tonight is gonna be the Boston Red Sox They're taking on the Minnesota twins and right now the Red Sox money line is plus 112 I've basically got this game as a toss-up I've got the Red Sox when odds at 50.3% the implied odds of plus 112 are 47.2% so It should be 50-50 if we're getting plus 112 in the Guardians or in the Red Sox Which to me is more than enough to take a bite at the apple here and a big part of why I'm lower on the twins here is Sunny Gray's looked a little bit off Recently don't really know a better way to describe it, but across this past seven stars Gray has been throwing fewer breaking balls leaning more on his forcing fastball in a sinker and That's been okay for results perspective because across those seven stars. He has a 3.5 Oh era so he's gotten through unscathed for the most part But the skill interactive era for gray is 4.53 That is a lot worse than what it was earlier on this year and because he's throwing fewer breaking balls It kind of makes a question What has led to this change for gray and isn't they can reverse right away if he can reverse it right away Then he'll be fine and we'll be good to go but he hasn't yet most recently his last time out was actually I would say the worst start in the sample he walked four batters against the Tigers and Got yanked into four innings. He disagreed with getting yanked into four innings He had a discussion with Rocco Baldele there But it didn't look good and you kind of understand why Rocco made that move in that situation On the opposing side Garrett Whitlock has pitched well since coming off the IL both in terms of his results and his peripherals So I'm fine taking the Red Sox here if I can get plus money again I would show value here even if they were to get to even money It would not be a ton of value if I have them at fifty point three percent But with the Red Sox money line being plus 112 right now that to me is a very advantageous number So I think the Red Sox money line plus 112 given gray struggles given the twins offense the struggles That kind of converges to me to make the Red Sox a quality bet for today at plus 112 The final money line I mine for tonight is on the Chicago White Sox now this was plus 104 earlier on it is now Or sorry, it was minus 104 for earlier on it is now minus 108 that is a Definite difference and you do want to make sure that you are accounting for differences in odds And when you see movement like this make sure there aren't any lagging sports books that haven't seen that movement as of yet So the White Sox went odds out to fifty two percent fifty one point nine percent specifically Make sure you can't get a better number than minus 108 But if you can't I still show value there because to me if you look at this game straight up I think the White Sox are the better team factoring in starters, etc. Etc. I think the White Sox is a better team in this specific matchup So you put them at home and to me they should be more heavily favored than minus 108 Martin Perez starting for the Rangers Hasn't been able to rekindle the magic he had last year and it wasn't fluky like his skill interactive era last year His expected era were both very very good, but that has not carried over into 2023 Perez using more cutters as past ten starts his skill interactive era in this that time is five point two eight and That's kind of rough and it's shown through in the results in the most part did pitch really well last week against the blue Jays but for the most part the larger sample has been less enthusiastic about Perez He's facing the White Sox here who they have not been as stout against lefties as they were in the past But their WRC plus against lefties and the current active roster is still 111 now You could say the White Sox would get downgraded here if Tim Anderson can't go Anderson has missed a couple of games And I would bet he probably does wind up sitting for today as well Given he's battling a shoulder issue But whether it's that shoulder issue or something else Anderson has not been a Plus contributor for them so far this year. So to me It's not a terrible thing if Anderson does want to want of sitting here Michael Kopeck starting for the White Sox We talked about him with pitching Ninja last week how much more confidence he has right now That star for Kopeck didn't go very well because he walked a lot of guys and he's in a tough match up here But now back at home Overall things have been much better for Kopeck. So even at minus 108 I still think there's value in the White Sox here. So to me the Chicago White Sox The a solid bet even at minus 108 as always check around to make sure you can't get minus 104 still lingering out there Somewhere else. So the three money lines I like for today are the Oakland A's money line at plus 146 again shop around for that one the Red Sox money line at Plus 112 and the White Sox at minus 108 assuming you can't get a better number elsewhere Two props I like for tonight are both in the same game Let's start things off with the strikeout prop I like for tonight And that is between the Mariners and the Yankees a Yankee stadium and Johnny Brito coming back up here for the Yankees His strikeout prop is currently four and a half with the under at even money And I think that is a fantastic number to grab with the under on Brito Brito I have projected for 3.6 strikeouts tonight. That is well short of this number and In the big leagues Brito's strikeout rate is six 16.9 percent his swing strike rate is 8.4 percent Those numbers Typically are not going to get you to an over on a number that's not three and a half and he's at four and a half right now With plus money on the under Brito is coming back up from AAA and sometimes you can see guys unlock something when they're down there But didn't happen for Brito his strikeout rate down there in four starts with 17.2 percent So it's hard to assume that Brito has made this big jump when The numbers do not say that happened and it's not as if Brito has ever been a huge strikeout guy to begin with Brito has it the over on this number three times in nine starts. So A rate of 33 he is at home He isn't a plus matchup the Mariners do love to strike out But I think this number is already accounting for that So you don't want to double count the matchup and my numbers know what the Mariners strikeout rate against righties is and even with that again 3.59 the projected strikeout number for Brito for tonight So even a plus matchup even at home I think the under and Brito is the right play under Four and a half strikeouts even money as of right now As mentioned the home run prop is also in this exact same game And that number is going to be on that that will be on Jared Kalmyk Kalmyk's number right now vandal sports book plus 450 was plus 470 earlier on so it seems that there is Interest elsewhere in kelnic as well, but even plus 450 I think this is a fine number and I guess I've been surprised to see kelmyk's number shortened because He's been in a big pretty big Homer drought recently He has not had a home run or he said one home run in the month of june and we're already at june 21 So that's not ideal But when you dig into the numbers for kelmyk, he is still making a lot of hard contact in the month of june specifically again Where he has just one home run He has a 48 hard hit rates with an 11 percent barrel rate And that barrel rate did go up last night because he had a barrel there but did not hit a home run The issue kelmyk has had and the reason why that bad at ball data is not translated to fantastic results is He's striking out too much But as mentioned that's less of a concern with brito than it would be for a lot of guys given We're on brito's strikeout under for tonight. So it's kelmyk in yankee stadium Facing a lower strikeout pitcher who has not been super restrictive with hard contact this year That to me adds a well for making kelmyk a quality play of plus 450 here To hit home run over at vandal sportsbook I do think these bets play well together. So I think you could consider potentially Tying them together seeing if uh, that would work out for you If you decide to same game parley the kelmyk home run with the brito strikeout under it's plus 815 I actually do think that's somewhat enticing given that A large part of the kelmyk analysis Revolves around the low strikeout nature of brito and i'm taking the under on brito's strikeout prop as well So if you wanted to tie the kelmyk home run with a brito's strikeout under at four and a half Plus 815 the number over at vandal sportsbook. I will not push back on you in that regard I as always do tend to play things a bit differently where I prefer to Place the separate bets and play it that way, but I think this is a unique situation where The bets do it interact pretty well and that to me is what I want I'm going to place the same game parley as I want to make sure a Both legs make sense individually and b I want to make sure they play well together these two happen to in fact They probably do correlate pretty well. So plus 815 for the same game parley of kelmyk home run Brito under four and a half strikeouts. I think that's a fair way to play things from tonight If you are so inclined but again the individual ones kelmyk home run plus 450 Brito under four and a half strikeouts even money both those over at vandal sportsbook So hopefully that gives you a good baseline for uh some solid mlb bets for today We'll be back with you once again tomorrow. We talk some us too with austin swain I will also talk nascar and nashville We have all three series back in action for this weekend We'll try to find some bets across all three series and see where we can find some value For this weekend do not forget to subscribe to the covering the spread podcast feed Wherever you get your podcasts also check us out over on the fandal youtube page and fandal tv plus and just in general make sure you download the fandal tv plus app on your apple tv your amazon fire tv or your roku app because A lot of good stuff. They're all in the same place if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcasts Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb bets for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to talk some usc and some nascar This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network