 Aloha and welcome to season two episode three of figments on reality my non political non vitriolic commentary show. The season two episode three thing is something I do not to because they're real seasons, but actually just to keep my graphics and notes are organized in my computer Sunday I'll count up how many shows I've done quite a few all this year. I want to give you a peek behind the curtain before we get into today's topic. Figments and that the how I do it is first of all is with the help of think tech Hawaii a great nonprofit company been around for 20 years, and they do 30 broadcasts a week, and I encourage you to do two things go to their website check out the very diverse offerings they have, and donate because they are nonprofit corporation that require relies on your largest to continue their good work in the community. So they make it all work they take my graphics and fold them in. They make the captions and everything else and prepare the broadcast. Sometimes the sound is imperfect here at home and they'll fix that. Eric the engineer is on right now so I'll give him a shout out so he pays special attention today but think tech makes that all work. It's filmed in my studio. No actually in my own office. We're all zoom right now they do have a studio and I've done interviews at think tech in the studio that's how I first learned about them. The zoom thing works pretty well. And it's broadcast live and usually sometimes I pre record because of schedule conflicts but almost always live. And I have a lot of technical things to worry about like wardrobe you'll understand why I'm wearing a plain black shirt today when we get to the topic. I want to make sure that the shirt looks good I have my fashion consultant my wife all 100 do that. And then we worry about lighting and sound and I'm going to share this because if you do a lot of zoom meetings and want to look good especially say for a job interview. There are a few things I've learned. One is the best thing to do is get good lighting and I've got a ring light and another desk lamp and I make sure the windows are open and we tweak that with the engineer. The sound is important. I use as you can see an air pod pro for my listening to what else is going on like an interview with the guest, and then I'll got to wave three microphone that filters out a lot of the background noise because there is no way to ensure yard worker construction like starting a pigments broadcast pretty quiet today, maybe we'll have a helicopter fly by to fix that. But a good microphone will take out a lot of background noise and so like I said if you if you need to do well on zoom or any other platform. You can put money into how it works. I spent several hours, I hope this shows in preparation for each episode from the time of inception to getting ready for the broadcast I prepare the graphics, I like to use photos to illustrate it. But there we have to be really careful for copyright infringement YouTube is is a stickler for not infringing on somebody's intellectual property. I just make a PowerPoint slide and then Eric and the team turned it into good graphics and they display it when it's supposed to be displayed which is pretty cool. And then I have to get it all done in 28 minutes and that's probably the biggest challenge I'll be looking at the clock I know I'm three minutes in ish right now. And the first 15 minutes go by slowly. And then the next thing I know I'm at 28 minutes. It's an interesting phenomenon that happens every show. And I'm sure this one will happen this time. Once we finish the live broadcast and think tech why they clean it up sound distractions any awkward pauses. They edited a bit not for content but for style. And then they'll post it on YouTube video and as a podcast on Apple podcasts and on Spotify. I share my notices of shows through an email blast I try not to abuse that but if you would like to get notified when there's a new broadcast a new figments either version figments on reality or figments the power of imagination. Send me an email at info at phase minus one dot com that's info at phas e min us the number one dot com, and I'll add you to the mailing list and again I promise not to use it. So that's how I do figments why do I do it. Let me assure you it is not for the money. Figments like think tech is a totally nonprofit endeavor. There is no, no money is harmed in making of these these webcasts. So I don't do it for the money but I've been blessed with an interesting life and I hope that's given me some insight and experiences that you find valuable when I share and I made some amazing friends and have some family that's pretty amazing too. So I like to bring them on and share their stories with you. And I do that to enter entertain to inspire in just to give you some food for thought not because I'm right. I'm sure I'm not always right maybe totally wrong. But hopefully the way I present it in a non political manner will give you that food for thought. I end with what would fig do that came up in my second edition of second episode of figments the power of imagination with former chief of staff Dave fingers Goldfein. When he said in somewhere in the broadcast. And later later he had worked for me at Aviano in combat. He said I'd asked myself what would fig do. Now he did not elaborate he said he may have meant I'd asked what would fig do and then go in the other direction. I hope not, but I want to give you something to do about the problems I present or to think about on the issue the stories I share. The ideas just happen. So my next my next power of imagination week from today will be with a golfing friend and Air Force friend of mine who brought it up at the golf course I'll share that with you in a bit. Others happen serendipitously world events, Afghanistan for example present themselves, or today, let's talk about today, how did today's episode happen. Today's episode happened, because I looked at the calendar, which I have to do to try to keep my schedule organized I'm a lousy personal assistant executive assistant by the way. But I looked at the calendar and today is November 22. I remembered immediately that today is the anniversary of the assassination of John F. Kennedy. I do remember that day well even though it's just 11 years old. The entire nation was in shock when the president was assassinated regardless of where he stood politically. It was truly a black swan. It was really impossible it happened and that's really what I want to talk about today is black swan events, and I've got a definition here the black swan is when the impossible happens it started being used first in financial Nicholas today wrote several books that alluded to the black swan and it's from phenomenon thought to be impossible because for a long time black swans weren't known to exist they were discovered in Australia. And the assassination assassination of President Kennedy was a black swan. Now, the there's a lot more to the black swan event it's not everything that's surprising. This is element number one of a black swan event it's surprising to the observer. Second, by to love's definition it has to have a major effect and the effect can be positive but the events are almost always negative according to him, but surprise a major effect and then finally and this is one of the most fascinating elements of the black swan is after the event occurs, it's rationalized behind say we look back and say, No, yeah, we should have seen that coming or I knew that could happen. But we didn't see that coming. And the unthinkable assassination of President Kennedy was a black swan we didn't see it coming. And the effect, of course, many rationalized that we should have including conspiracy theorists. We didn't see it coming. And the effect was so great. I think it changed our nation and not a good way. Because there were more assassinations in the ensuing decade and more and attempts and Martin Luther King George Wallace, Robert F Kennedy attempts on Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan and that was a significant change in our political landscape that I think had a negative effect in accessibility but also just in how we viewed ourselves as a nation. Another area where I think it had a dramatic and deleterious, I think that means bad impact was in trust of the government, the conspiracy theories survived now I don't buy them. Please drop me a note if you think I should but I don't buy the conspiracy theories but they're out there and they're persistent, and they all involved distrusting the government. And I think that the President, the President Kennedy's assassination and the aftermath, including the Warren Commission investigation, seriously eroded trust in our government. And part of that was due to a lack of transparency there's a lesson there folks, we do need transparent government, I still don't think we have it. But it eroded the public trust, and that's not good in a democracy we don't have to like what our leaders are elected officials do. But we should have a good full view of it. And as I look at the headlines, whether it's a politician on the right left or in between. My first responses, I probably really don't know, they're probably not sharing anything and I think that's been exacerbated by the information age where there's so much out there. But everything out there might not include the real facts or the real truth. So I think the assassination of Kennedy that that black swan event damaged our country in ways that can't be measured. There have been other black swans. The atom bomb, when dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki was a black swan event for the world out. People knew that it was coming people in the US Defense establishment certainly those involved in the Manhattan Project new. I'll share a little family story, my father Bob leaf was studying physics at the University of Wisconsin the Navy had kind of pulled him out of high school early age 16 I think to go study physics at the University of Wisconsin. He told the story. They all they knew was they were getting a very intense education in physics with a lot of one on one tutorials from very high level professors. And they would finish their degree program in about two years. That's the way I remember his story. When the atom bomb was actually dropped on Hiroshima he and his one classmate in this be 12 program that was called the Navy's program, looked at each other and said to themselves. Now we know why we're here. So it was a black swan even to those involved tangentially or peripherally with the effort to perfect the metal atom bomb thoroughly the fact is beyond describing this episode. And some may say oh yeah we knew they were working on that but it was a surprise. Sputnik was another surprise and is Sputnik is often held up as as the ultimate black swan event that the surprise that the Russians could put a satellite in space a functioning satellite and and the ensuing space to space and that maybe it was a negative event to the United States we get beat to that objective by the Russians. But with a positive outcome it energized our space race, a lot of benefits have come out of the peaceful use of space and we're not voting the trip to the moon. So, surprise major fact rationalized in hindsight I don't know that that fits for the Sputnik but I think it fits the criteria. There recently was one that I mentioned in one of my recent pigments episodes, and that was the Chinese launch of a hypersonic weapon which surprised a lot of people. I'm not in the defense business anymore I hope they weren't as surprised as it seems from reading articles about the event. But the defense establishment several key officials have said well I don't know that this has been a Sputnik moment, but it should be. This black swan Chinese possession of a hypersonic weapon and it's a little more complicated than that but should spur concern response, perhaps investment, not conflict, because what we have to make sure we do is can do is deter accounts but the, it has been a certain I think agree that I agree that almost all major technical advancements technological advancements are in fact black swans and good some good things can come out of them the, the expansion and ready ready access to expansion of and ready access to the internet is a good example. I'd say cell phones had have more effect, frankly, my second I don't spend too much time on that, but I will want to mention one more tsunami, or one more black swan and that's the boxing day tsunami in 2004 that incredible disaster took everybody by surprise. And enhance hindsight we could have been more ready for the earthquake and ensuing tsunami, but we weren't and hopefully the preparedness we see now with this tsunami warning system means that we were paying attention. So, as I thought about black swans without what other black swans are in the world today that might be flying and might be important to folks for folks to think about, and I thought about Chile, not just because my wife all I hundred is a native of San Diego de Chile. But because they experienced a black swan in October of 2018 and the effects are still occurring and the future is very uncertain because of it so in October of 2019. I'm sorry 2018 if I said 19 2018. The government raised the fares on the metro in the capital city San Diego by 30 pesos in US dollars that's five cents. Not a big increase and probably needed. Chile have been the darling of Latin America the model of stability for the 30 years of democratization following the departure of the Pinochet and it was it's a developing company country it still ranks 43 of 189 countries in the world. On the human development index which includes health economy and education. So it's a, you know, pretty stable country and it's the highest ranking of all the Latin American countries on the HDI that human development index. So cool. What happened after they raised the subway fare 30 pesos. The country descended into unprecedented chaos, violence and destruction and political unrest. There was a massive discussion destruction from riots inside San Diego was incredible to see it's a beautiful city and imperfect like every metropolitan area but this was terrible then the subway system focal point of the unrest at first was a big target for this unrest and virtually destroyed. Over 30 pesos. Nobody expected it. But it wasn't about 30 pesos it was about 30 cents, or it was about 30 years, 30 years of dissatisfaction broadly with the government and both major parties. It has changed Chile forever and may change it even further. Because the either was the violence and destruction and 36 dead, but it ripped at the social fabric of the country and drove the people I would submit to polar opposites and that's witnessed by an election just held yesterday a presidential election. And that in this election, the two candidates who will face in a runoff are at polar opposites for which the left wing and cost the right wing. I don't know who's going to win it, but it's further complicated by another effect of that 30 peso swan. All of the unrest made people agree that there was need for a revised revision to the Constitution affects a new constitution. They may have agreed but they didn't participate in only 43% of Chilean voters voted for the delegates to the convention and now that convention is made up very predominantly for people from the left. And that means they're going to have a constitution that a significant majority minority plural, I don't know, but a big part of the population isn't going to like it. And it's a pretty extreme constitution as currently drafted. If cost or borage will win the election. If it's borage then that constitution and the new president are going to take Chilean in directions that are going to change the country. If cost is elected and opposes the new constitution that's another difficult situation with the potential for even more unrest. Folks these effects can't be undone we can't rewind to September of 2018 and say but let's start over. And I'll let you know why I think that's important to Americans right after a quick break to talk about that next episode of figments the power of imagination. Coming up on November 29 the week from today at 2pm, why standard time with Colonel Ed Hawkins a great friend, former Air Force Colonel. He was an intelligence analyst he's a really smart guy I like to talk to him a lot he's a much better golfer than I am but I don't think he has a hole in one. I have to ask him. So, Ed's brought up the idea of talking about China Taiwan conflict and what it would mean to Hawaii. And he has some really interesting views it's something we should be concerned about and by the way if you're not watching in Hawaii. It's part of America folks, you know that. And the consequences may be magnified here in the islands, but they'll be significant throughout the country. So let's get back to black swans and why chili could what happened in chili couldn't possibly happen in the United States, more could it. When it was occurring, I said to 100 and I hope people don't realize this, but this could happen to the US because of our polarization, and sure enough, if you look at the events following the killing of George Floyd. On January 6 to the riots, the violence to everything. We're seeing unprecedented political dysfunction and a deep fractionalization of American. We've had two spectacularly unpopular presidents I'm not saying that with a political bent but neither President Trump or President Biden have won the hearts and minds of enough of the population to be very effective. I want our president to be effective, never he or she may be. And they're not, I think we've also seen somewhat with the additive effects of the pandemic a breakdown and checks and balances on government and not the conspiracy guy and I've got my vaccines and I know it's something of a conundrum to figure out how to tackle the pandemic while maintaining an individual liberty but I see the checks and balances, sometimes from the left and sometimes the right from the right being eroded and that's a fundamental concept underpinning American democracy and guess what that concerns me. We're facing fundamental change with the two recent infrastructure bills, if you will, that about half the country doesn't appear to want it. You know, worth that divided and with one party in power in both houses and in the White House. You know, we're going to have that it could deepen the divide. And could this be the demise of American democracy. It could, but that's not a political view that's a practical view. What can we do about it. Well, I'll start with vote vote and vote, and my politics are between me and my ballot, but I can't complain if I don't vote and I generally don't complain in public about specific people or issues. We ought to respect each other's views because no matter how far they are from yours they deserve your respect and I think we've stopped doing that as nation, and it's not healthy it's not good for the country. Don't feel good either, by the way, but, but we've got to respect other views. And then I think a key is to learn again, how to discuss and debate, but don't dismiss. There's abuse of others. You know, I've done a lot of writing and talking and thinking about North Korea. And one of the things that always gets under my skin is when somebody says well, Kim Jong Un or his father grandfather is totally irrational. No they're not. They just don't share our rationale. I'm not justifying the behavior of three dictators. And saying to dismiss it as irrational prevents you from looking inside it and trying to understand the rationale so that you can counter it effectively. So even at the extremes, respect the views of others as you examine them without validating endorsing or adopting, you can still respect. And if we do that in the United States. I think we will we face the kind of seismic shift. The country of Chile is work is facing right now. And I hope it works out well for both countries, but we can't just wish for a brighter future. Are there cases worldwide where there are other black swans on the horizon. I think there are. I'm not going to talk about all of them today but when you look at the protests in Europe over pandemic, over pandemic enforcement measures. And the departure of the United Kingdom that kind of a black swan from the European Union, the various refugee crises around the world are all creating tremendous change and I won't even go into climate. You can find several black swans orbiting around the climate crisis. How about the collapse of North Korea. We might think that's good. And we may say well we saw that coming I've been predicting it for years. Well, in fact I have been I inaccurately predicted quite loudly that it would collapse in late 1997. I checked it hasn't. And I think the collapse is unlikely. The collapse of that could be very bad, or potentially very good. But what do we do about that and now it's time for what would fig do. I would open, I would suggest we all should open our apertures to the impossible, recognize that we're almost nothing is impossible. And when it's a worst case and possibility we can't, we can't build our lives around a low potential high impact near impossibility, but we ought to be ready for some regard. So open your aperture be involved. That's why I do figments. I want to be involved in the discussion I want to be thinking and maybe influencing if you're so inclined to be influenced by my thoughts. And recognize that while we can't anticipate the impossible will make the outcome significantly worse by simply doing nothing. So, let's not do nothing let's do something. Let's do something like say happy Thanksgiving to all my figments viewers I'm thankful for for your support. If you do watching you do like please click like you already know I don't get paid for it but that helps get broader distribution on YouTube and other media, and it makes your host feel good. Another great reason to do it and share it with others. Again, if you want to be on my mailing list and be advised to figments earrings, then just send me an email info at phase minus one dot com info at phase minus one dot com I don't know how Eric slapped that up there on the screen, not good for podcasts but for the rest of you info at phase minus one dot com and I'd also welcome any thoughts you have on future episodes. So again figments on reality and figments the power of imagination are both brought to you by the wonderful folks at think tech why who deserve your support and they get my thanks for giving this citizen journalist, the opportunity to share with you. Happy Thanksgiving and a low.