 Okay, this is Think Tech Global on a given Friday afternoon at 5, and we are doing a regular show. We do a regular show every few weeks with Karnaki Mishra, who's a student at the School of Management Science in Varanasi, India, which is not too far from the what, the Nepal border, and which is on the Ganges River, and he talks to us and tells us the student, the Indian student perception of what's going on in the world. He is very worldly and complements to his school for that. So, Karnaki, welcome back to the show. It's nice to talk to you again. Thanks for having me, Dave. Absolutely. So, we have agreed to talk about three things today. One is the North Korea Summit, which is very interesting, and let's get your views of that. One is the G7 meeting, which the president attended just a few days ago. And the other is the Shanghai Corporate Summit in China that's also very interesting. And I am so interested in trying to find out exactly what you feel about these things. Let's tackle the North Korean summit first, because that has implications heard around the world. So, what do you think, what do your peers think? What does India think of what happened here at the North Korea Summit between Trump and Kim? Certainly, everyone is positive about this summit. Even everyone's leaders have given their views about it. And so, I think we have given positive feedback about this particular summit which took place in Singapore. And again, the government has welcomed the actions of both North Korea and President Trump. And I personally see that perhaps victory or I would say achievement of Donald Trump as a president in tackling the problem of North Korea. And certainly, I can say that this summit will yield both North America and North Korea and as well as the rest of the world. Well, they struck an agreement on a two-page document, which was very nonspecific. And they spent 20 minutes together and neither one of them speak the language of the other, I don't think. So, what do we have here? What kind of moment does this agreement have in terms of an agreement that actually will go forward, will be implemented? What do you think, what does the Indian people around you think about the implementation, implementability, if you will, of this agreement? Okay, I first want to think that this agreement talks about two things. First thing is complete denuclearization of North Korea. And second thing is the U.S. would stop taking exercises, military exercises with South Korea. These are two goals of this summit, I believe. And certainly, this thing will bring positive impacts in the eastern areas of Asia. And secondly, I think very positively all this because India has diplomatic ties with North Korea since 1973. We completed 45 years of diplomatic relationship with North Korea. And before this summit took place, one very interesting thing is that our foreign minister, junior foreign minister, General Luike Singh, made a visit to North Korea. And it was the first visit I would get in the past 20 years by an Indian minister rather than person visiting North Korean. It yielded positive results in India also. India is having a key interest in North Korea. So the President, President Trump has said that this is the new age and there's an age of now of peace to follow between the U.S. and North Korea. Do you accept that? Do you believe that or do you think that's merely for public relations? I believe it's possible, but somehow trusting North Korean regime is a bit difficult. We can say that in London it may function well, but we have to see the actions of North Korea, what would be they doing for keeping their part of the agreement. And as well as one thing I would like to point out that Trump, President Trump is instable in this foreign policy or diplomatic policy as we can see. And that's something which troubles me. It depends upon President Trump. If he gets in a mood swing, he can do something like walking out of Iran with North Korea, which can again raise the tension between the nation. So I can say a trust issue is something which U.S. and North Korea should work on. Well, you know, while we've seen him change his mind, we've seen more and more he becomes his own policy council. And it's not too important what the people around him say, it seems like, that he makes his own decisions about these things. So my question to you is, do you trust him to fairly implement the deal? Do you trust him to make reasonable moves going forward? Or will this just be one step in a long road toward a decline or a redecline of the relations between the U.S. and North Korea? It may happen. It depends totally upon President Trump that what decision he takes in the future. But certainly I believe that this step was necessary in the present day. But one thing I would like to also point out that before this summit took place on 12th June, President Trump issued a declaration of something like that, stating that he will cancel the North Korean summit which is happening in Singapore. And after reconciliation and talks with North Korea, things came to line and this summit happened. But we can certainly see that Trump is unstable in his policies. First he canceled the summit, again then summit took place. So we can conclude that his decisions are quite erratic in nature. How frequently he's changed his opinion. So if President Trump keeps one single thought in his mind and continues to work on it, and then I can say positively that North Korea would also take the actions for denuclearization in the COVID-19. Well what about now? What about Kim Jong-un? He's got a reputation of going back on his word. He's not, he hasn't been treated as trustworthy and in fact he's killed a number of members of his family. And I'm wondering how you feel about his ability or his willingness to actually go forward on a reasonable basis and implement the terms such as they are. What can we expect from Kim Jong-un? Certainly Kim Jong-un is the creator of North Korea. His family is ruling North Korea since 1950. So I can say that his policies are towards making North Korea a power which could be a threat to the alliance or the alliance of the United States in that area. Japan, South Korea are very key strategic partners of the USA in that area. But suddenly I'll say that North Korean leader or North Korea does not have the financial capacity or the economic capability to maintain a large army or maintain nuclear arsenal. It's human that he has six to ten nuclear weapons but it is still rumored. We can't say with guarantee that North Korea does or does not have nuclear weapons. It is something which is only stated. No one of us has seen the weapons of North Korea. It is only by the government of Kim Jong-un that they have the nuclear weapons. It's been said that it would take ten years to actually de-nuclearize North Korea because there are so many installations and systems involved. So what is the timing? Because it's not clear that President Trump will remain in office that long. In fact he couldn't. And it's not clear whether that's a workable time limit for public interest and for the interest of the press. How long do you think it'll take before we know whether this is a legitimate deal and whether the parties are legitimately trying to implement it? Which I could see clearly is that North Korea destroyed its testing facilities. So this could be a step which shows that North Korea is willing to take action to de-nuclearize the North Korea and I think it will take time. It is not an issue which will come to an end in one to three years but it will take time. Ten years is something expected. It can take longer than that depending upon the nature of the government. So how do you feel this will affect the stability of the Korean Peninsula and South Korea? How will South Korea react to it? How will Japan react to it? And the big question of course, huge big question is how will China react to it? Do you have any thoughts that people talk about that in Varanasi? Something which is that news is North Korea. Generally if you see an Indian news channel, I can say one hour is daily dedicated to Kim Jong-un and his nuclear attacks or something. Generally we mock him for doing this all. And I can say that these countries, China, South Korea and Japan closely related to North Korea. Before the summit of 12th June, North Korean leader and South Korean leader met together. First summit between North Korea and South Korea. And first time a leader of North Korea visited South Korea and signed a declaration what we call Bob and Joan declaration which took place. And according to this declaration, the Korean leaders will try to work together for complete denuclearization and to increase the cooperation between two Koreas. And many steps are taken by the Korean governments to, I would say, support the peace between the nations. For example, in Winter Olympics for the Koreas took the participation under one flag of Korea, both North Korean and South Korean players were under one flag of Korea. So I can say that I believe that North Korea will take positive action. As for Japan and China, these two lessons are about the key interest is North Korea becomes peaceful. So China can have a threat that U.S. Navy or the station, I would say for stopping North Korea may put China, it would be targeted towards China. So from China's point of view, it can be a big digital situation if North Korean problem solves. As for Japan, we can say if they agree to it, North Korean, South Korea and United States, Japan will also agree to all the policies of U.S. making the area peaceful. Okay. The big question now is India. How does India fare? Is India happy with this deal? How will this affect? How will this deal affect India? India's relationships with North Korea, with South Korea, with Japan, with China and with the U.S. What's in it for India? Sir, I can say that we, as I said, from 1973, we are maintaining whole diplomatic relations with North Korea. And this peaceful approach, this peaceful policies will increase the trade of India with North Korea. It's possible in future. If North Korea didn't realize it, the sanctions raised by U.S. would be lifted. U.N. sanctions would be removed. This would give India an opportunity to invest in North Korea, some business with North Korea, and as well as India will be able to own his, his policy of active, which seeks alliance and trade between the nations of East Asia. So North Korea can be a key strategic partner for India after lifting the sanctions, if the legalization takes place. As for China, Japan and U.S., I can say that India has positive relations with each of them. So North Korean relations of India, U.S. and China does not affect the India's relations with different countries. Okay. You have it. Karnaki Mishra, he's a student at the School of Management Science in Varanasi, India, and he joins us by Voip Phone. We're going to take a short break and come back. We have a couple of other international issues that we want to discuss with him. We'll be right back with Karnaki Mishra. Have the potential to be seriously cool, and I want you to come watch my show where I bring in experts who talk all about easy strategies to be healthier, happier, build better relationships, and make your life a success. So come sit with the cool kids at Out of the Comfort Zone on Tuesdays at one. See you there. Hi, I'm Bill Sharp, host of Asian Review here on Think Tech Hawaii. Join me every Monday afternoon from 5 to 5.30 Hawaii Standard Time for an insightful discussion of Contemporary Asian Affairs. There's so much to discuss, and the guests that we have are very, very well informed. Just think we have the upcoming negotiation between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, the possibility of Xi Jinping, the leader of China remaining in power forever. We'll see you then. We're back with Karnaki Mishra. He's a student at the School of Management Science in Varanasi, India. He joins us from time to time. Talk about affairs in India, but also India's participation in international affairs. We've talked earlier in this show about the North Korea Summit. Now we're going to talk about the G7 summit in Europe, which President Trump attended only last week. So you've read up. You know about that. You've looked at the newspapers. Talk to your friends in Varanasi. What do you think about the G7 summit and what happened, Karnaki? Let me know about the G7 summit. It took place in Canada. The area is known as Cuba. Canada was the host of the G7 summit and all the nations between Japan, United States, UK, the participation in it. And they had various policies, or I would say idea on how they can work together. And certainly I can say that United States took a very drastic step. President Trump, I would say, moved out of that summit before the declaration or the something was signed. And I can say that this can lead to a very big problem between the other allies of United States. Sometimes these people in France or the French media said that this is not a G7 summit. This is a G6 plus one summit because... Yeah, we've heard that here too. G6 plus one. Yeah. Because the policies of United States are completely different and not aligned to the other members of this summit. And the key areas in which this summit was working were climate change, developing jobs in future, and building a secure world for everyone. But President Trump, I would say, took a very drastic action, moved out of this summit, stating the reason that Canadian people or the Canadian government is importing 300% tariffs on the daily products. And until and unless Canadian government reduces the tariffs on U.S. products, U.S. based daily products, Trump won't agree with the G7. So this can lead to a problem with the key allies of United States which are near U.S. It can create a great war between U.S. and the Europe or the, I would say, rest of the world. And recently I read in the newspaper today that Trump put 25% tariffs or increased 25% tariffs on some products of China. And as well as China has also increased 25% tariffs on some of the products of U.S. And if this kept on going, it can lead to a very drastic trade war between U.S. and all its allies. And once again, in G7 summit, Trump targeted India also. It said that India put tariffs on some of the U.S. products which are up to 100%. Until and unless India reduces those tariffs, we won't agree to the trade policies of India. So he is clearly taking a policy on which trade war could easily start. We placed tariffs, China placed tariffs. So this can lead to a very great problem, economic crisis. None of the presidents before President Trump took such drastic measures for reducing the trade deficit between the nations. He said that certainly that if these measures do not increase the trade tariffs, we will stop creating them. And I don't think this approach will help United States in the long run. Yes, I certainly agree. I mean, we've alienated our trade partners, our closest allies in Europe. And in fact, Canada, that's really too bad. We've imposed tariffs on people we are close with. And we are in effect in a trade war. And he has alienated allies, strategic allies, who are in a very funny spot now, and especially given Russia's attempts to increase its influence in Europe. So I guess my question for you is, what's going to happen now? What's going to happen with regard to the ripple effects, Carnegie? What are the ripple effects business-wise between the U.S. and its trading partners in Europe, between the U.S. and its trading partners here in North America and for that amount of South America? And what will happen in the relationship, the trading relationship, that the U.S. has with China? All of these seem precarious right now. And I wonder how you see it playing out. Certainly I can say that these foreign policies of the United States have created some problems. The world is now looking towards time. If you have kept on this approach of protective trade policies, people will look towards nations like India and China for the, because these nations are still, compared to the United States, are ready for open business, open market. And the nations like, developing nations like India, China, Russia, South Africa, BRICS, what we call them, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and these all relations who few of them are common in FCO, which is known as Shanghai Cooperation Optimization, which was clearly made by Russia and China. So we can see that is why it's moving from the United States to China for the U.S. If they kept on this. Well, so if we say that the relationship, the trading relationships and the strategic relationships between the U.S. and all those G7 countries in Europe is at risk and degrading. Likewise, its relationship with China is degrading. How does that affect India? I mean, for example, if Trump imposes a technology tax on technology products from China, doesn't that give India a new advantage for the same kinds of technology products? Yes, certainly it gives advances to Indian products, but certainly Trump is not in favor of that also because India has a trade surplus with U.S. China has a trade surplus with U.S. Trump has targeted those nations who have trade surplus with U.S. China has a surplus with U.S. India has a surplus with U.S. So his policies are targeted towards nations who have trade surplus with U.S. and he wants to reduce them. The great deficit of U.S. with, I would say, all the nations are around, so in 2017, $556 billion in which $300 billion of functions is around China, $24 to $25 billion around India. And Trump wants to reduce them. Well, it just occurs to me that we are at risk of losing a lot of trade. We are at risk of having economic downturn in the U.S. and certainly these other places as well. Trade war in the circumstances sounds like it's inadvisable for everybody, but let me ask you this, you're a business student, maybe you've thought about it. Are we at risk of a global recession as a result of these arguments and trade wars? Yes, we can actually go to the repressions because for example, President Trump pulled out of Iran in May and certainly walking out of Iran and putting sanctions on Iran made the prices of oil go up. And the prices of oil go up means increasing of, I would say, all the things which are related to the oil nations like India and China are severely affected by such policies. It can lead to recession if these policies are kept for long. You should think positively about these relationships and should work in a diplomatic month rather than a trade war to curb this deficit between the nations. Okay. Gee, not happy news. Let me move on to the third area we wanted to talk about and that is the Shanghai corporate summit in Qingdao. So Qingdao, can you tell us what's going on, what has happened with that summit and who has participated and what the upshot is? Yes, it is something very interesting which I would like to tell that it is the 80s SEO summit took place in China, the city of Qingdao, on 9th and 10th June. This whole SEO concept started in 1996. In 2001, Uzbekistan joined the SEO and after 16 years, both India and Pakistan joined this SEO as full members. In 2018, the second step moving visited as the full member of SEO for the very first time in China. And this SEO basically works on increasing cooperation between the central Asian nations, for example, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, China, Uzbekistan and two new forces joined the SEO. This is much more legible than G7. Trump moved out of this G7. China took India and Pakistan as new members. So we can clearly see that the world is moving towards a very different order. India and China are not important. And if not, if G7 fails, this SEO and BRICS can be an alternative to all the nations who are wanting BRICS with Asia. Well, it's all connected, isn't it? It's not coincidental that these three meetings have taken place all within the recent past. It's not coincidental that they each have an effect on the other. And in a world that's interdependent, in the words of Thomas Friedman, and flat and interdependent, each one of these things has an effect on the other things. And all three of them have a significant effect on the global economy. So this suggests to me, Kartike, that you and I should be talking about this on a regular basis. And we should compare notes, not only how it is seen from India, but how it affects India and how India reacts to it, because India is right there, you know, sort of in the coincidence, in the intersection between East and West. And thank you so much, Kartike, for joining us. I'd like to get together with you again four weeks from today, same time at station. I hope that's okay with you. It's fine with me. And thanks for having me for the shoot. Thank you, Kartike. Aloha.