 You're listening to The Crunch with Cam Slater, right here on RCR, Reality Check Radio. On the line with me now is Matt King to discuss the results of the poll. Matt, we've had a lot of good feedback about the interview. I think you've picked up a lot of support out there in Reality Check Radio land from the interview that we had last week, but now it is time for the Reality Check. We've got the results of our first poll in Northland, exclusive to Reality Check Radio, and welcome to The Crunch. You know, Cam, thanks for having me on. Appreciate it very much. Anytime, Matt. It was a pleasure to talk to you last week, and it's a pleasure to talk to you again this week. Now, we've had the poll results come in. The 38% of those polled have said that they're going to vote for Grant McCallum, the National Party candidate. 18% say they're going to vote for Willow Jean Prime, the Labour Party sitting MP. 6% are saying they're going to vote for Shane Jones. 3% for Mark Cameron, and 2% for you. Have you got some comment on those numbers? Yeah, Cam, it doesn't ring with what I'm getting around the electorate. I've had about 14 meetings around Northland. Every one of them has been nearly a full house, massive feedback, great volunteers. I mean, last night we had a meeting at the Whanganui. It was probably 70, 70-80 people there, so hardly any free chairs, and feedback's been really positive, so that really surprises me. It's just a stake in the ground, I guess. We've done a poll there before, so that's why we thought we'd do a poll, to put a stake in the ground, and now we can measure progress for the 81-day, 80-odd days that are left in the campaign. You said last week that you were knocking on a lot of doors. It looks like you need to knock on a lot more. Look, yeah, I get that. I mean, what I've got to try and get past is that the major parties have got all their people out there saying that it's a wasted vote, or we're splitting the vote and we'll let Labour back in, and that's 30 years of MMP. People are still thinking with first-past-the-post thinking. That's a good point. It's a really good point you raised, but you've now got an empirical poll that you can point to people and say, well, actually, we're not splitting the vote here. There isn't any vote splitting. The poll showed that there was 30% uncommitted. They were unsure of who they would vote for as their candidate. Now, that's a lot of votes that are up for grabs, but you need to grab all of those in order to get past Grant McCullum, or Grant McCullum has an embarrassing news story or something goes wrong in Northland with Christopher Luxen and something happens there, but there's still 30% of respondents in this poll were saying we don't know, and 11 weeks out from the election. Yeah, well, what we've got to is that when I talk to people and I explain the situation where in Northland they can party vote for who the party they want, and they can candidate vote for the candidate they want, and that if they party vote for the party they want, which is trying to get Labour out, which everyone's really scared about Labour getting back in, there's no downsold or no risk to candidate voting the South, because I'm more likely to bring some of the undecided vote from around the country in as List MPs with me and make up the balance of power and ensure that we get this government out. So I've been going around everywhere I can and as much as I can, passing that message on to people. And every conversation I have where I talk to them about that and it's hard going because you've got so around so many people, they understand that they recognize that it's a strategic vote in Northland, as I described last time, it's not a red-blue horse race. So that's where I'm at, and I've obviously got a massive job ahead of me, but that's what that's my job I've got to do for the next 80 odd days. But you always knew that you had a massive job ahead of you and that this electorate gives you an opportunity. But what our poll also shows, because we also polled for name recognition, is that pretty much the electorate, I know this disagrees with your anecdotal evidence on the ground, but we've got the hard evidence here that pretty much all of the candidates including Willow-Jean Prime, the sitting Labour MP, have got a majority of people not knowing or recognizing who their name is. And that's the biggest challenge, to get your name out there, that, hey, Matt King is standing again and vote for me. Yeah, well, we don't get any, we've had zero mainstream media coverage, actual fact, we've been on reality check a couple of times on a couple of other non-mainstream news, but we don't get the coverage that some of the other parties get when they're on mainstream media all the time. So yeah, I mean, that's the challenge of a minor party starting up is to actually get across, get your message out, and what I say to people is, and we've got 80 days to do this, and we'll be going hard out, is to let them know that when they're actually thinking about who they're going to vote for, the way they're going to vote, there is a strategic vote there that they can do where there's no downside. And for me, I guess we'll be advertising, we'll be pushing out social media, we'll be doing it at all the meat of candidates, and every bit of publicity we can, I will be saying to people, hey, there's no downside to giving me your electric vote, there's absolutely no. And if I can get that message out to enough of these people and enough of these undecideds, and a few of the people that are staunch gnats, that they can recognise that, that there is no downside, then I've got a chance. And I was at a farmer's meeting today, a DNZ luncheon, and I was talking to the average Calcoc Museum, there was a few of them, and I was asking them what they thought, and this first thing was, yeah, Matt, we really like you, we like you as the MP, and we'd like to have you again, but we don't want to risk labour getting back in, and when I explained the strategy behind it, they all understood straight away, and they said, oh, yeah, we've got two votes, we can vote strategically, and we can ensure that the Labour Government kept out for a decade. That's what I find astonishing, that after 30 years of MMP, people still don't understand that, except in rare electorates like Northland or Epsom or places like that, it really doesn't matter who you vote for, for your electorate MP, so you may as well have an insurance policy, but it's the party vote that's critical for everybody, but a small party is able to drag in a couple of extra MPs if they can win an electorate seat, and that's why I always say the two questions I ask minor party leaders, what are your plans to win an electorate seat, and what are your plans to win 150,000 votes, and you clearly answered those questions last week, which was good, but the focus now has to be on you need to get out there and really rattle some cages in the local electorate and get across the line there, and if there's an upset, I'd be very pleased for you to see that happen. Yeah, well, we had a poll when I was running in 2020, and that showed me Urtle's ahead of the Labour candidate when I was running as a national candidate, like 20% ahead, I think, and safe margin anyway, and on the day, everything changed, and 2020 was, there's nobody predicted that result, there's no way it would look like that. So I'm encouraged by the number of undersciders, also, I mean, for me, I talk to a lot of people around them that even though we've had any people for 30 odd years, people still think first pass the post, and you can, that's the thing that you've got to try and break through with people and say, hey, you can be strategic here, because you imagine a scenario where they two tick the national candidate, right, and they get to the action and they're sitting at 59, they're an actor looking at 59 seats, and they need 61, or actually you need 62 or 63 to be safe, and I go to national voters, I say, well, you know, if you've given me the candidate tick, I might have bought those two or three in and we would have guaranteed and assured a change of government. And when I say that people, they do, but you know what, because I can't get on mainstream media and talk like that, I have to do it, you know, person by person, room by room. And so we've got a pretty, pretty good campaign, and it will be concentrating on strategic voting and more so than actually selling our policy, we'll be talking about how you can ensure that we have a change of government by strategic voting. Northlanders will decide that. So, yeah, your poll tells me I've got a hell of a lot of work to do. But, you know, I'm not going to lay down. I want to go hard. That's what I've done. So that king is not showing away from the challenge? No, not at all. And you know what? Everyone wrote me off and I was up against Winston Peters. Everyone, exactly the same feeling. Actually, there was a basically a vibe amongst people as you don't have a hell, shitshow and hell of winning against Winston. And I was I was just doing the work on the ground quite as much as I could and bevering away and I did that for a long time. I was quite confident that I'd done enough to get across. And when I had the result came through and I won by 1,500, I actually felt disappointed because I thought that I was going to get more. And so I look at this and I go, OK, you've done a poll. It is a stake in the ground and it indicates to me that I've got a lot of work to do to try and get that strategic message out there and we'll be focusing on it. So yeah. Well, you know, as I said, it is a stake in the ground. We needed to measure that that then allows allows you to reinforce that message. See, we can actually make a difference here. But it is a steep mountain that you've got to climb. But you knew that when you left the National Party and went out on your own. You knew you'd have the the forces of the elites against you. Yeah, well, Cam, I what I did was I mean, I could have I could have been if I'd been an unprincipled, I could have just sat on and in the blue in the blue uniform and and right right, you know, I read the chariot through on to the next election and but I know in my own self, my principles were challenged by this whole thing. And I, regardless of the outcome of this election, I did the right thing and I can sleep well at night. I felt so strongly when the mandates came out that I have to do something for my family, for my community, for my country. And that's why I went out on this, you know, what we've started the crowd at a party and, you know, regardless of the outcome, I'm very happy with the decision I made and I sleep well at night and I look back on these times and go, you know, I'm on the right side of history and I'm very comfortable with it. So yeah, hey, look, this is this is not a good poll result. But I tell you what, we've got 80 days to go. So I'd love to be talking to you at the election and say, you you be congratulating me from coming from behind and pulling off the win of the century. So well, look, I'd like nothing better than to talk to you the day after the election and that you're the new MP for Northland. And there'll be a whole lot of people out there who will be cheering you on. And, you know, I've been critical of you in the past. But one thing I can't criticise you for is the heart that you're showing in the campaign and in the fight that you're taking to the campaign. And, you know, that's all that we can ask of people who put their name forward for public office that they do their best and they do as much as they can to try and get elected. And it's it's a really hard job standing for Parliament. It's a really hard job standing for public office. And people don't think people understand just how hard it is. And then when you see raw numbers like this, it can be disheartening. But the ones that succeed are the ones that pick themselves up and and carry on and press on regardless. And, you know, I wish you all the best in the campaign. And no doubt, we'll talk several times more before the election. Hey, I'm a bit concerned about the new camps later, this being nice to me. It's like it's really it's kind of a little bit unnerving. But I appreciate it too. I've had a few comments from mates saying, who's this? Who's this cams? What happened to old cam? I said, well, old cams dead. Old cam died when I had a stroke. And this is new cam. And this is really the first outing that people are seeing now, the new cam. And so thank you very much for that comment. I appreciate it. Thanks, Tim. OK, mate. Thank you very much, Matt, and all the best for the election campaign. We'll talk again. You're a good man. Thanks, cam. Appreciate it. No worry. This is the crunch with Cam Slater. Conversations with a side of controversy. Right here on RCR.