 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheActionToTrader.com, a nightly update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good day of trading. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, the only thing we ask for is your support. That's it. Like, click the like button, share, tell a friend, subscribe to the channel and we'll try to facilitate as much value as we possibly can on an unbiased basis on a daily view. So let's talk about the market, right? Today, the best way I can describe the action today was, let's put it this way, a nerdy version meets the first girl and he invites her to prom. He's never been with a girl, he's never held hands with a girl, he's never done anything. To his surprise, this girl is very, very interested and she lets him know so, hey, I'm very interested. So they go out, she invites him back to her place, her parents are home. This is getting weird. I'm not going to say anything, but anyway, make a long story short. The bulls, it's getting weird. The bulls, right? They were very excitable this morning and just like that, just like a virgin on prom night, it was over that quick. Last night, we talked about a potential, the bulls reclaiming back the five and 10 day moving average today and the problem was they gapped up. Everything looked good, everything looks strong and the next thing you know if you look at the 60 minute view of everything and it was over, right? This was literally the gap up in the morning. The video was up $7, $8. We'll get to that in a second. Everything was gapping up. Everything looked good and it was just all day fade. It was literally an all day fade. There was no juice in the market whatsoever and the worst part about it is they got rejected on the two levels that they really needed to clear, live in a bigger, wider space on the 1130 and the 1201 highs and they got rejected there on the third time around and the question is now what happens? Well, right now we're stuck in this channel here. We are. We're just kind of stuck in this channel here. This is day three. The S&P 500 is red. It's not that big of a deal yet where it becomes a big deal, especially in the S&P 500. It's kind of what we talked about on the weekend video. This channel right here becomes very, very important. Guys, right down this level, 453.30. 453.30 is the bottom of the range of the S&P 500 and we talked about this on the weekend video. This is kind of mirroring the setup that we were talking about on the NASDAQ 100 when it was sitting there and couldn't break out of that channel and finally lost that 388 level. Well, this is kind of playing out the same way. This bottom channel here is kind of important for the rest of the week and maybe potentially spilling over next week. So the bulls need to defend this 453.30 level. If you look at the cues, it's a little bit of a different story, right? The cues now, the fact that they couldn't rally and they couldn't reclaim back last week's fives, that's a problem area. You're going to see this on a lot of charts. They got rejected pretty much into supply making lower highs from last week's session. It's a big deal. The big number continues to be to the downside on the cues, which is 382.66. That will be the definitive line in the sand. That's the rising 20-day support and if that area gets violated, just the same way we talked about right here, that 388 level gets violated, we're going to have lower prices. And if you go through individual names, you're going to see price action that's being mirrored, right? Like really being mirrored on the NASDAQ 100 names. Again, there's 500 stocks in the S&P 500. It's a little bit of a different monster to kind of tame. But the NASDAQ 100, yeah, it's 100 stocks versus the 500 S&P. And if you look at the top 5, top 10 holdings, they're basically all the stocks that we trade. And instead of trading the cues, you can trade these individual names. And there's some pretty damn good setups coming into tomorrow's session to the downside. If we continue to slide and start testing back that 382.66 level. The big news today, there was an AMD kind of an AMD presentation conference, whatever the hell it was. And you notice they sold it, right? That's again, it's a big deal. It's a red flag and AMD now because of the kind of the sell on news selling the event. Well, you know, they had 1637, 1638 level keeps on holding over and over and over again. I'm so tired, I just give you guys the general level. But hey, that's what I do sometimes. I'll slip up, right? So now that I said the numbers, right, watch the 1637 level, right? So many times they held 1637. They held it once, they held it twice, they held it three times. So my slip up is your potential trade. So 1637 is held out three times. They couldn't get the stock up on the event. So now if the floodgates open and starts losing the 1637, there's a potential to wash out. The problem with this setup is not only that they get sold on the event, it's the news of the event. You know, you had Meta and Microsoft coming out and says, well, listen, we'll buy AMD chips. You know, we'll buy it an alternative to the NVIDIA chips. And on that news, they couldn't get the stock going. So again, this line in the sand here for AMD is definitely on watch for tomorrow. And because Meta and Microsoft said, we're going to go with the AMD chips, well, guess what? NVIDIA sold off, right? Sold off. And look how close this is. Now, this one, I'm not going to share with the public, but this 50-day support is a massive, massive level, guys. The 50-day moving average, as you can see what happens every single time a stock loses the 50-day and regains the 50-day, right? So let's start with the losing part, right? You see here how NVIDIA lost the 50-day for the next week or so. The stock went from 455 all the way down to 409. You see it as 50 points in four days losing this T-line, right? This T-line here. Now, look what happens when they reclaim this baby blue line, whatever the hell it's called, right? The stock went from 449 all the way to 476. Well, look what happened when it lost the 50-day moving average, right? It went from 449 all the way down to 392, right? Look what happens when they reclaim back the 50-day moving average, right? It went from 353 all the way up to 505. So here we are, right? Now that I demonstrated the importance of the 50-day moving average. Again, guys, you don't need a lot of setups for tomorrow. Keep an eye on NVIDIA, right? If NVIDIA starts losing the 50-day moving average, good things could happen if you're short. Not good things are going to happen if you're long. So if you are long and you're in it for a short-term trade, watch the lows of the 50-day because if the 50-day starts getting lost, you have room here to 439 and all the way down to 428. So again, you've seen the evidence of what happens when you reclaim the 50, when you lose the 50. And now NVIDIA is not that far away from the 50-day moving average. And if it does lose that, we can have a pretty good back test as well. So you've got AMD showing weakness on good event news. You have NVIDIA losing. It's starting to get weakness on AMD's rise in the eyes of Meta and Microsoft. So it's not good as well. So the key is, can the bulls defend last week's lows? If the answer is yes, then yes. We're back in the middle of the range. And we're probably having another dead cat bounce. But boy, oh, boy, guys, if we start losing yesterday's the bottom range of last week on the Q's and NVIDIA starts losing the 50-day moving average. Yeah, this could be the one, right? This could be definitely the one. I always say you only need one. YOLO, right? YOLO. You only need one, right? And this thing confirms, again, we don't know if it's going to confirm. But if the video confirms this thing could definitely, definitely be the one because the measured potential and the average to range on NVIDIA on NVIDIA is pretty damn aggressive. So again, going into tomorrow, guys, the two big levels you have to be aware of, 453, 34 on the spies, and QQQ's, QQQ's, 380 to 66, right? And obviously, it all depends on all the other names that you're watching on their specific levels to trade. But again, I trade the same names pretty much day in, day out. So let's talk, right? Let's talk about today's pivots, as you can imagine, with the market kind of fading right off the open. Not a lot, right? Not a lot. We generally traded in between ranges today. And that's the cool part of the PS16 theory. You don't need breakouts or breakdowns because we trade the most aggressive stocks in their channels. Their channels are wide. So we're trading from supply to supply to demand to demand. We bounced Tesla a few times today on NVIDIA. You know, not bad. Not bad at all. It all adds up at the end. But there was a couple of natural pivots today. And let's talk about them. Amazon never confirmed to the upside. Apple never confirmed to the upside. Meta stopped right at supply. NVIDIA. NVIDIA on a quick little pop at the open. 72.50s went to about 74 and then literally died the rest of the day. Roll blocks never confirmed. Arm never confirmed. This was a big number, right? 33.90.55 rejected twice. Needs to build. Guess what? It got rejected in the high 30s. Basically got rejected three times off that area. And here's where the last two pivots of the day that actually did confirm. UPST went absolutely out of its mind. When absolutely nuts UPST 3440 needs to build. Here was UPST and look at this candle here at the open. Right? This was an absolute monster candle here at the open. It took out the 3440 and stock traded all the way up to 3730s. Congratulations for you guys who caught that and Coinbase. See Coinbase is a little tricky sucker. So I usually don't trade Coinbase. Not really my thing. But I traded it today just because there wasn't a lot of, just because there wasn't a lot of opportunity for natural pivots. I was trading basically more bounces and stuff like that. But Coinbase today, it looks heavy. Had a big run on Bitcoin. 139 and 137.60 if it confirms, it could flush, right? It looks better on paper. I'm going to tell you that right now. It looks better on paper. Yeah, agree, call then. Yeah, not really. Not really. So I shorted it, it went down a less than a dollar. I covered some, this was in the morning, I covered some, the stock went back, you know, I pretty much covered the rest, pretty much break even the stock rally $2 and later in the day, later in the day, it took down that 3760s and traded all the way down to 134. So it looks better on paper than it is. Yeah, I did a little bit on it. I just basically took some cash flow, nothing crazy. But here's where it could get interesting, right? Here's where it definitely could be interesting, right? The five day, again, like we always talk about is the shortest term sentiment. Whatever controls the five day controls, well, the short term trend. As you can see here on the orange line, every single time it hit the five day, what happens? Bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce, bounce. Even here, it lost the five day reclaimed bounce. So we closed on the five day tonight on Coinbase. Guys, watch Coinbase. For all you guys who traded against, just a little too thin for me. I know my limitations. I don't like thin stocks that could jump around $2 every two seconds. This is one of those stocks. But for all you guys who do, again, to each his own, if this thing starts losing the five day moving average for tomorrow, then this thing has room to the 10 day, which is roughly 127. So there's definitely enough room there for a trade. So definitely keep an eye on that. A couple of names, smaller names that I do like to the upside. Look at CHGG. Keep an eye on this thing for a couple of days. You've got a nice little tight channel that's playing out here. Again, does it confirm? Does it not confirm? Again, we don't know, but the channel definitely looks pretty good and looks like it's ready to go. And Canada Goose, right? Canada Goose. Very expensive coats that are worth the money. Let me say that much. If you go into a Canada Goose, not every single Canada Goose has that. But they have one of these freezing chambers. And until you can test drive their coats, they put you in these freezing chambers. We have one in the Shortholes Mall in New Jersey. They crank it up to minus 10 degrees. And the damn coats, the expenses they are, they're very, very worth it if you could swing them. Check this out, guys. This is a nice looking chart. It's coming off the bottom here. All this thing needs to do is reclaim back the 50-day moving average in the next couple of days. And this thing can definitely wake up. So you have some things to the long side, but you definitely have some things to the short side. Again, top watch this tomorrow. You have AMD. Again, three times in a row. It held the bottom range here. And NVIDIA. NVIDIA for potential losing the 50-day moving average. So that's it. That's my spiel. And that's my story. And I'm sticking to it. Hope everybody is doing well. Tomorrow is Thursday. It's my normal Thursday evening. All for all you guys who are coming aboard tomorrow or thinking about pittance. Guys, come aboard. I mean, all you need to do is try these pittance 30 days. And you'll really start looking at the market in a completely different view. Guys, God bless. Have a great night. Have a good trading day tomorrow. And I will see you soon. Take care.