 Okay, let's get things kicked off here. I've got the risk warning on the screen. Trust you can still hear me okay. See me okay. See the screen? If not, obviously, let me know. So the big thing this week really is that there's a lot of economic data because last week it was a shortened week and the result being that they sort of shifted the focus into this week. So we've got a lot going on this week. So I'll cover some of that up front, these sort of key highlights that I think will be the biggest ones that could move markets. And then just to sort of mention right up front is that we've got quite a big day on Friday lined up. We've got OPEC making their decision on whether to cut production, cut crude oil production, so that would be a big one for all markets. We've got Greece set to make their payment to the IMF and we've got the US unemployment report. So a few big ones loaded into the end of the week. And on Wednesday worth mentioning right up front here is that we've got the ECB decision. But let's just go through, I don't always do it this way, but let's just run through the calendar day by day. We've already had a lot of PMI data from China and Europe today. China was sort of, you could almost say that there's been a bit of a pause and decline in Chinese manufacturing in May, which is a good thing. It's still, according to the private survey by HSBC, it's still in contraction, but the official survey has it marginally expanding. UK and European manufacturing, the UK, it did grow on the month for just less than expected. In Europe, we saw a slight drop-off in Germany which kind of dragged the whole PMI for the euro zone down. So that's partly to explain the weakness of the euro today, alongside the fact that unsurprisingly, Greece didn't come to any arrangement over the weekend in terms of their bailout. So tomorrow, Tuesday, we've got UK construction PMI, Eurozone CPI, that would be big. We've just had the German CPI result. And that would sort of suggest that inflation's picking up again a bit in the eurozone. I'm sorry, we've got German CPI coming out in an hour. And that would suggest that it's, you know, with the expectation to suggest that inflation's picking up again in the eurozone. And at some point in time, we're going to start calling into question why QE is still going. And then US factory orders at three. Wednesday's a big one because we've got the ECB. We've also got services PMIs from the UK and Europe. And we've got the US ADP report. And then the US trade balance. So the trade balance was a big one last time because it showed us that the first estimate for the first quarter GDP in the US was actually overestimating and these big drop-off in exports actually dragged. As we saw last week, the first quarter growth in the US into negative territory. First, we've got the Bank of England. And on Friday, as mentioned, we've got those three events I just mentioned, most notably, positively for currencies, it's the NFP report, coupled with eurozone GDP. So yeah, busy old calendar. So good week if you're trading FX, but some of these things are going to affect broader markets, stock markets too. Let's get into some of these indices. A lot of them are just stuck in sideways ranges. So if we have a look at the UK 100 here, we've pretty much just been oscillating around this 7,000 round number. Now I've got this trend line in. It's been drawn in different ways, but I think this line is pretty solid. It's discounting this spike here. It's got three nice touches there. So we could be in, you know, if it dropped further down to the bottom of the trading range and hit 6,900 again, it wouldn't be altogether unsurprising given this failed move higher. That would also coincide with this trend line again. So there's a good chance of that holding if we're to maintain the uptrend. If not, obviously that's 6,800, where I spiked off last time is a big level, and then just down to this support area here. But you know, should we move through this rising wedge and be breaking down, I think that probably would point to a larger decline, possibly even through this 6,700 support here. It's not the default scenario for now. And if we check on the 200-day moving average, you can see that comes a bit above 600 there. So that's acted as support on the last couple of occasions that's been touched, which may mean that it's less likely to work this time. And if indeed it does break, it just adds a bit more significance to it because it has acted as support in the past couple of times here. So this PMI data is going to be big, but as you can see from these other industries, it's not specifically a UK scenario that we're looking at at the moment. It's more of a kind of broader, probably US-led needed push higher in equity markets. Europe's slightly different, obviously that they market to Europe have been moving higher this year because of the ECB's QE programme. And obviously we're going to be hearing more about that on Wednesday. They've got new growth and inflation forecasts. They're unlikely to change those. What we may get a bit more colour on is the front-loading of the programme where they're going to be buying more at the moment before summer because liquidity tends to drop a bit in the summer. Less buyers and sellers around to people on holiday. So they'll be doing less buying in the summer, but more before. So that gave European markets a bit of a boost, but they weren't able to take out their highs again from that. And the euro's been dropping off pretty hard recently, both because of US reasons but also because of that. We look at the Germany 30 at the moment. We can see that we have sort of crossed a kind of technical threshold here with what we've got five touches for this one. One, two, three, four, five. Five in a break. Five touches on this one. A lot of people are going to have this trend line on their chart and are going to be eyeing today's progress. Today is big. Today and then whatever we can do with these lows is going to determine the strength of the trend in the medium term. I suspect that we could be on for a, if not today, maybe sometime this week, a more prolonged correction. It's risky selling while we're still above the 200-day moving average and generally we're still in a bullish market for stocks that could just see a bigger correction here. And I've marked out some of the kind of places that I think maybe it could pause before that 200-day moving average has reached. But this trend line break to me is significant. If we can smash straight back above it again, that's a good sign. But I suspect we may not be able to. And a close below it is going to be a sell signal to a few people in the markets. You've just got to be cautious obviously because there's a high up there so we could still get a bounce up to there in the downtrend scenario. Now flipping over to, as I mentioned, all these indices are looking pretty similar. Arguably that Germany 30 and the Euro markets are looking a bit weaker than the rest. The UK and the US are looking a bit more solid. Looking at the US 30 here, I highlighted this there because I really think that pretty much, this has basically been the whole of this year going back even as far as November, but this has been pretty much stuck sideways. Generally a positive bias, but you can see the prices just going back and forth around these moving averages and you can just see if you draw a couple of lines above and below that really would not make much progress and it wasn't altogether much of a surprise. I mentioned in the post here on the 29th that there's a chance the back down towards the bottom of the range after that false break high because that was a high. A lot of people have been buying on a breakout but it just failed and moved back in and so all those people who were buying suddenly had to sell and caused a bunch of selling back down to this 50-day moving average and as I said in the update today, I tend to think that because we've already had a bounce off this 55-day moving average, 50-day a lot of people have on their charts and it's come back down to it again. To me it suggests that that wasn't enough to sustain the trend higher and this move back down to it suggests to me we were probably going to drop back down further to 17700 maybe and then as I would define this more recent range more in this sort of vicinity of 7600 probably being more the level to watch. But yeah, not to say that we're going for any huge change in circumstances but I think maybe we could be looking at a move back into the bottom of the range again. And that's largely going to rest probably on if the ECB say something very surprising that could do it but it's going to be this PMI data in the US and the US unemployment report on Friday. One of the interesting things from the GDP report last week is that it said that corporate adjusted profits dropped by almost 6% in the first quarter. That's the first time that's happened since 2008 because that wasn't particularly good quarter for corporate profits so fundamentally there's not that earnings reason to push markets higher. We kind of need central banks to step in and help again so we need economic data to imply that the Fed's going to keep rates low for longer. So that being the case, the way I'm thinking is that it's hard to tell when you're in this environment where good data is not necessarily good for markets but I think probably a miss of the non-farm payrolls might be what's needed to actually push their markets into the next leg higher but if you get another 220,000-plus jobs created which shows that the unemployment is still steadily coming down and no reason for the Fed to hold off on hiking interest rates in September or possibly October or December. So that's as equity as you can see the general idea is that we're stuck in ranges. Generally when you're in a range you've got to be aware of the longer term direction but the lowest risk, highest probability range when you're in a range is buying and selling at the bottom and top of the range respectively. The breakouts obviously do bring about good trades once a successful breakout but you will as you see in that US 30 chart see just a lot of false breaks. We did reference the euros so let's just switch over to currencies. So we've totally rolled over in the euro here. It was a bad couple of weeks for the euro after coming close to hitting 115. We're back down. We've dropped beneath 109. We've bounced back. We've hit the 110 round number and that's based a lot of selling and this if the day finishes as it is it's a sort of bearish sequence of candles. Bearish day, three up days and then a bear day again. That's like a little flag right there and it could insinuate another move down to perhaps these loads here beneath 107. And obviously bearing in mind just the longer term trend here is the 200 day moving average. So if you were buying to this rally with the benefit hindsight you can say that we were still below that 200 day moving average and it was going to face some selling at some point. Similar looking picture with the British pound. It's just a dollar strength environment we're looking at at the moment. We have, I had this peak highlighter as a possible bounce. We did get a few long wicks but the week data today from the UK just well not weak. The manufacturing sector is still expanding but just not as strong as expected. We had a bit of a slowdown in the first quarter and the UK signs that it's turning around a bit in the second quarter but not perhaps as strongly as we would have liked. And so we dropped off again, made new lows. So it's a short term downtrend obviously but if you're short you're looking for areas to take profits. If you're looking for areas to go long either way you're looking for areas of support. Now an obvious one would be this 151 which is around number plus this low here but perhaps where we are at the moment the 50% retracement of this rally from April through May could be what does it. Now Dolly Yen's been the most interesting one. It's just a prolonged period of week Japanese data in spite of the huge quantitative easing program that the Bank of Japan's doing which in itself weakens the Japanese yen faced with a stronger US dollar later recently has caused this market to break out massively higher. And as you can see we're right back at this we actually moved marginally above it this high from 2007 and we're basically pushing into these highs from back in 2002. So this is a pretty huge potential area of resistance here but given that we had a bit of a slow down running into it this is kind of where we had our pause if you like it's almost where the market broke down through here that's kind of where we paused and so this high I feel especially given that we closed right at it even though we may get some short term correction I don't think it's going to pose too much resistance I think we're looking for another extension up towards that 130 level but given the strength of the trend it's almost better to drop down below to lower time frame charts here to pick your timings because the dips have been pretty shallow but generally speaking we've got these are the lows they can see now it's been tested a couple of times and it is quite a strong long term area of resistance this sort of 124-20 type area so we may get a break of these lows and a move down to perhaps test this low here which may be enough to attract a few more buyers into this pretty strong uptrend if that gives way then perhaps down to the 122 round number again but definitely a good strong uptrend but it's obviously due to a correction but if you wait for too much of a large one you may miss the next leg high because they've been pretty shallow corrections so far but I would say it's the yen is just sort of continually weak because of the QE program the sort of weak economic data the weak recovery in Japan so it's really a U.S. driven story and again probably comes down to the non-pump payroll sport on Friday as to how much further this can go maybe we get a correction leading into the NFP report and if that beats expectations maybe that's the trigger for the new leg higher maybe we don't even need to wait that long that is five days away one sort of slightly less commonly traded pair the New Zealand dollar worth making here I noticed at the end of last week is that we saw a big weekly breakdown so we had that breaker that long term we had to test, we moved lower got a strong bounce but that's been undone and now we're lower so there will be lots of people with a night of this because we are multi-year lows now back down to the lows from 2010 so few people will be aware of that so may get a kind of strong bounce and expected but I think still the fact that we've got this week