 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com nightly update show. Everybody is doing well. I want to welcome aboard all the new folks who are joining us this week that took advantage or taking advantage of the Black Friday Cyber Monday Trial Special. Again, for all you don't know, we have a trial that is heavily discounted and for all you guys, it's basically for all you guys who are thinking about pivots. Is this something for me? Is this something that fits with my account size, risk tolerance? There's only one way to find out. Again, I've been saying this for years. I don't believe pivots are for everybody. I don't. It's a very patient way to trade. There's only six candles throughout the day. But if it's something that you are contemplating or thinking about it, again, we have two more days left. So you can take advantage of this. I think the trial is 50, 60%, 70% off, whatever it is. So just come in, kick the tires around 30 days, ask a lot of questions, see the price action live so you can understand it in front of your face. So there is, I promise you, there's no edits. There's no, nobody's pulling any wool over the shoulder. It's just price action and technical analysis. If you are interested, we have two days left so you guys can take advantage. So let's talk about the take, right? So as you possibly know, unless you don't, market's been up, right? Market's been very, very strong. And bears have been very frustrated because people were screaming, the market was overbought. After two days, if you guys go back two and a half, three weeks ago, I made a video and I saw people talking about after day two of reclaiming the 50-day moving average to the market was overbought. Yeah, that was three weeks ago. That was when the cues were at 364. Now the cues went as high as 393. There's no such thing as overbought when you're reclaiming a big level. However, right? However, this is where we start to look at the tape a little bit more responsibly, with a little bit more of hesitation to chase past performance. The past performance has now been three and a half weeks of incredible market structure, a very rabid bull scenario into the last month of the year. Any of your favorite cold stocks have been going nuts. Amazon, Apple, this one, that one, they've just been all over the place. But we start looking for signs. Again, I trade the market on a day-to-day basis. I don't try to predict where it's going to be three weeks from now, three days from now. I'm trying to pick up the pieces. I'm trying to get all the data to figure out where the market is going to be tomorrow and where can we take advantage of potential areas of, well, a rug pole. Right? I know it's crazy. I know it's nuts to say. But hear me out for a second. Right? So far, in this three, three and a half a week run, we haven't seen, we literally have not seen a lower high that's followed through. We've seen instances of three days, three days in the last three and a half weeks, that the market has attempted to take out the previous day's range and the rising five-day support saved that we started running up again. Now, if you look at the last three days, what do we have in common in the last three days? Right, guys? So here's the last big move here. We've got out of the whole channel. And the last three days in a row, four days in a row, have been red bars. What is a red bar in the Japanese candlesticks? That means the close is lower than the open. Right? When you see a green bar, that means the close is higher than the open. So we have three days in a row of the close lower than the open. Now, is that crazy? Is this the top of the market? No, no, no, no, no. But it's something for us to pay attention to. And if you notice the last three days or four days, the market's been holding on to the five-day moving average. For our brand new to the channel, the five-day moving average is the shortest term sentiment. It doesn't mean this is the top. It doesn't mean we can go higher. It just means that the market has been putting in four days in a row of lower close and opens, and we've been holding on to the five-day. So that's where we start the nightly update. We have to play doubles advocate. We can't trade as euphoric knuckleheads running like chickens without heads. Things get tired, right? The same way, again, the seller's got tired on the sell-off here at October 26. When we had this massive V-shaped recovery, we're starting to get a little bit tired here. Now, the question is, can we get through the five-day? That's what we need to be prepared for. There's definitely a lot of stocks that still look good. They're still rallying. They're still very, very strong. But this is where we start looking at the market for a little bit more clues. Is it possible if we get a back test? Now, again, the back test doesn't necessarily have to happen tomorrow. It doesn't have to happen Wednesday. Hell, it doesn't have to happen, right? That's exactly the conversation we had right here when we fell back into the five-day moving average. The problem is here, for the bears, it never confirmed. So here we are again, right? We're going sideways now, and if you notice here, and write this down, write down this number going into tomorrow's session, just writing down this number for the rest of the week. So the QQQs have held 388 now back-to-back days. Everybody see that? 388.50 was the low from Friday. 388.28 was the low from this morning. So this is where the Qs are. 388 is held back-to-back days, and that's also the five-day moving average. I know it sounds crazy. I know it sounds nuts. But what happens if the bears actually reclaim back that 388 level? Well, that's going to happen. It's not going to be the end of the world. It's not going to be Armageddon. But that's one of those days that if you are a euphoric, permeable trader and you say, oh, this market's going to go to the moon. The market will never go down. This is where your legs get chopped up underneath you if you don't understand or understand the ramifications of big levels. Although the five-day is not a big level in the whole dynamics of what's going on, but again, I don't trade from three weeks from now. I'm trading for tomorrow. I'm trying to take advantage of tomorrow's session. And if you look at, even though today we did get above the previous days high and spiked up another 67 cents or so, again, we close lower than this channel here. If you look at the Friday's close, we close 389.51. Today we close at 389.18. So my point is be aware, okay? Be cautious. It doesn't necessarily have to happen. Again, I still believe that there's a lot of value in this tape. It's just a scenario that you have to be very, very conscious, right? You have to be very conscious. And if you don't know your levels or nobody's going to turn around and sit down to you and say, hey, by the way, watch the five-day moving average. If you're a novice trader and you have nobody whispering proper guidance into your ear, yeah, this is one of those days that if there is a rock pole, again, it doesn't have to happen, but if there is a rock pole, you better understand your levels. You're going to give back three, four, five days, two weeks worth of gains, literally on one cannonball. We see this all the time happens when people are not prepared for a potential backside move, and that's very, very important. So then we have to start looking at stocks within the QQQs to give us more clues. Well, let's look at two of them, right? Let's look at two of them. So let's look at Apple, okay? Apple and Microsoft arguably the two biggest ways on the Nasdaq 100, right? I think the third was Intel. I could be wrong. But Apple and Microsoft, they're definitely the top three, four, okay? So look at Apple, okay? Apple, again, the same thing, gassed out, right? Gassed out, lost the five-day, and the only thing that held in the last couple of days was the 10-day moving average. Everybody see that? Now, what happens to Apple loses that 10-day? Do you think there might be a little bit of ramifications what happens to the rest of the Nasdaq 100? Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't, but maybe it does, right? So if you look at the 10-day, and that's the green day, if Apple starts losing the 10-day moving average, that is a lot of room down. Again, if there is a rock pool, you know, Apple's not going to go down 50 cents. And if the QQs lose that 388 level, you know, Apple's not going to go down 50 cents. There's room here. There's room all the way down to 185.20. So it's something we definitely want to watch. Look at Meta. Meta had an ugly, ugly reversal today, right? Ugly reversal today in the middle of the day. I mean, really, really ugly reversal today. And guess what? It closed on the 10-day as well, okay? So what happens if Meta starts losing this bottom channel here? You see it? It held the 11-20 lows, the same area that we held today's lows. What happens if we start losing the 10-day moving average? Guys, there's $7, $8 for a potential back test on Meta. So that's my point, right? You have to go through the NASDAQ 100 or go through any names that you trade. Again, my specialty is the mega cap technology space. You might be trading oil names. You might be trading, you know, consumer cyclicals. Who knows? We are driving choices. But the point is start looking for clues. These are my clues in the space that I trade. It's your job as a trader to whatever group or whatever specialty you are trading. Make sure that you know exactly the dynamics of where your specific group is, where your specific stocks are. And when you look at Apple and when you look at Meta and you start going through another list, right? You start looking at other names, for example, right? Like look in the video. Although there was a lot of call buying coming in the video and it never took out, never confirmed the previous range, look how close this thing is sitting to the bottom of the channel. Look at Tesla, right? You know, I'm waiting for Tesla to break out one way or another, but the point is, right, the longer Tesla can go higher, well, maybe it goes lower, but maybe it goes higher. And it's a very, very sneaky stock compared to everything else. If you guys notice, Tesla has been one of those weird names. I'm actually watching it for both sides tomorrow, both up and down. Today, there was nothing there. It gave us a bounce play a little bit later in the day. But this is one of those scenarios that is getting super-duper tight. And if you look at the last couple of times, the Tesla was very, very tight sitting above the five-day moving average, right? Take a snapshot, right? Take a snapshot of the two candles here that are sitting above the five-day moving average, right? Back-to-back days. Now, look at what happened here on 11, 17, 11, 18. Same thing. So tomorrow, if Tesla could reclaim back, right, reclaim back the 50-day moving average, and this is where it's having its trouble, maybe Tesla could wake up as well. But the flip side, look at the bottom channel as well. It's not out of the realm as well. So we're getting into a little bit of a kind of... I don't want to use the word tired area, but a little bit of more of a pregnant pause. We've used that word before when talking about price action. Maybe sellers getting a little bit more aggressive. Maybe buyers are getting a little more tired. But it's something we definitely want to watch the next couple of days. If the market does start to gas out a little bit, guys, the last thing you want to do is not be prepared. If you look at today's session again, people complaining, inflation, high interest rates. Boy, oh boy, look at the holiday shopping season so far. You got Shopify, what nuts? Amazon actually did very well today. And then when we talked about Amazon on the weekend video, it did very, very well today. Some of these other online retailers, right? You got Etsy on a very strong day as well. So as much as we talk about the economy, it stinks and this and that and the third, the bottom line is that people are still spending money whether they're maxing out their credit cards. So little Johnny could have a new pair of Air Jordans. Hey, that's all personal preference. But the point is the proof is in the pudding and holiday sales so far have been strongly embraced. Again, a lot of really great sales if you look around and if you started doing your holiday shopping. So let's talk about today's pivots. Most of them are pretty aggressive. Some of them didn't confirm. If you look, it was a lot of the smaller names. When I say smaller names, not the Roku is a smaller name, but it's not something I typically I'm dying to do. But boy, oh boy, Roku had a monster move today. Roku upgraded in 9650 needs to build. Here was Roku. Here was Roku just absolutely when nuts. I believe we talked about Roku on the weekly update. I think they got upgraded by, I forgot who, but they got upgraded to a Roblox 3833 needs to build. Nice move on Roblox, nothing crazy and nice move. Again, I think we talked about this on the weekend update. Took out the 10 day moving average, ran up to like 39 and change. Nice looking chart if it continues to grind, looks pretty good here. On the video, again, held the pre-market lows, held the opening range lows, didn't give us a trade to the downside. Doesn't mean it was going to go higher, but didn't go down, kind of stuck in the middle of the range. And AFRM, again, AFRM, if you guys don't know what they do, they are basically by now, pay later. They work with Amazon. I'm sure they work with a lot of other online retailers. And again, with this online season kicked off really, really well. And AFRM is obviously a really good, getting a lot of good traction behind this. AFRM needs to confirm 2750 pre-market highs. AFRM, when nuts, it absolutely when nuts. It took out the pre-market highs and stock traded all the way up to $30, $35 move on a $20 stock is pretty darn good. And I believe that is it, right? I believe that is it. So going into tomorrow, guys, again, just write down, write down 388, right? Write down 388, because again, you need to be prepared. Remember, the market is, it does the same thing all the time. It's never as good as you think, and it's never as bad as you think. Case in point to sell off into October, which we miraculously turned around and now that we're here. And believe me, the market is not going to go, hey, buddy, we're going to sell off now. Maybe you want to start taking off your position. They're just going to do it. And that's the most important part. Guys, again, everybody, thank you very much for coming aboard, kicking the tires, trying this out. Again, if you are interested in learning about pivots, again, you have a couple of days to take advantage. And I'd like to see new friends. I'd like to see people with open minds and most important, ready to work. Guys, God bless. Have a great day, and I will see you all tomorrow.