 Okay, traders, that is 1pm London time and we are going to get started here this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Mundy, before we jump into today's presentation. As always, once we're here to the risk disclaimer, and most importantly with respect to today's discussion is the fact that the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine, they're not indicative or representative of those held by Tickmill in UK or Tickmill Europe Limited. So those that are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself after I graduated from the university. I joined a city PLC consulting firm, I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found an exit consulting startup which was focused on C-Suite's executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriate at that stage, day gambling and after some early beginners love and I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginnings of that run out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my capital. So this was a gut-wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. So I really had to stand back and figure out it's feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months was a time during which I was not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing, since we back and forward-testing strategies that crucially suit in my personality, all of which underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. Most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably most importantly of all, I made the war-shed ship from being a highly goal-oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you accept and understand the true nature of trading simply being a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades, because I know my focus on excellence in execution might actually demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-stretch approach has delivered a profitable annual return since 2008, since 2013. I've also been managing investing capital through a managed account service, again delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I am a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trading knowledge to tick mill clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups for about three to five markets that I'm actively tracking. I share those through the tick mill trading view accounts. I also run tick mills rapidly growing. Emily, especially Facebook Group, I post a daily trade plan outlining my pre-market thoughts for the cash trading session ahead. I give my bias for the day and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 5,000 points of profit since we launched the group last April. Second tick mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trade to the next level. Tick Mill Futures Trading Telegram Group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights, analysis and real-time trades. I also provide live market commentary during the opening hour of the cash session where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. So that gives you a flavour of where it is I'm coming from. We will now jump into the charts. I would say before I get going here that if you have any questions, just drop them into the chat box and I will come back to them at the end of the presentation. Equally, if you want me to give you a view on an instrument that I don't cover in my presentation, then again you can just put that into the chat and I'll take a look at the chart for you at the end of my presentation. So starting with the S&P 500 using the E-Mini Futures Contract last week, we were testing the support ahead of that CPI print and I was looking to the long side, got an excellent, well really excellent week last week trading to the long side through that CPI and then up into the highs here into that 40-50 test and so we're now correcting against this leg of upside. So what I'm looking for now is a pullback in a three-way pattern which we're currently getting here. So I'm anticipating we'll do something like this, test into this pivot 3910 area, from there I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side because I'm looking for another leg to the upside to develop here and my ultimate, my target for this move is up into the 41-20s. Now got some nice confluence developing there, it's monthly projected range resistance, we have this ascending trend line resistance as well coming in there, it's an equality objective like I say versus the swing structure here for those who are unfamiliar with the term equality, it's basically looking for an equal leg swing to play out or what Elliot Wave would refer to as the ABC pattern I guess. And so yeah, I'm looking for this 41-20s to get tested, we also have the weekly descending trend line resistance, we have a high volume load there on the weekly chart, on the daily chart, we have a high volume area as well there. So what I'm anticipating is we get a move up into this 41-20 and from there I'm going to be looking to short the market for another leg of downside to develop. So we're going to see now coming into this session, seen some weakness overnight but we should test this 39-10, 39-15 area and from there like I say watch for those bullish reversal patterns regage on the long side. At this stage any close through the 3900 level will be a bearish development and would suggest that we're going to take another look at trend line support this high volume area down to 38-45. So those are the key levels I'm watching as we head into the session today in the US, moving to the NASDAQ. Similar scenario here, we actually traded to the initial target level that I had in mind last week plus is this swing structure that we identified and we traded about 11,878. So we're now correcting in a similar fashion and if we use the trend based Fibbi extension tool we get a clear target here. So what I'm looking for is 11,420 to get tested here to complete a corrected move and again we watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and the next upside objective is up towards 12,200 as the upside target on this move. Now similarly if we take out that 11,400 bearish development we'd certainly think about a test down into weekly projected range support comes in at 11,200 and the prior highs before we broke out to the upside. So for now still constructive at this stage but we've got some key markers in terms of price where we would start to consider a downside move developing in earnest. So moving to the Dow Jones YN, let's get ourselves some target areas here. So versus the swing high here, swing low here and that swing high. We are looking 33,059. Notice we've got a little low volume area here so what I'm looking for is a test into this area and again we watch for bullish reversal patterns here to engage on the long side looking for the next leg of upside to develop in the Dow up into these prior highs 34,370 is the target for this move and then I think we might see a meaningful correction develop in line with the S&P. The Dow has been outperforming obviously it's an index that is heavily weighted towards value stocks. We have on the opposite end of the scale obviously the Nasdaq which is heavily weighted towards growth stocks and so in this environment where obviously we're in a you know rates are being raised access to capital is becoming more difficult we anticipate that the Dow would outperform the Nasdaq in this scenario and that's what we're seeing play out moving to the DAX nice bullish structure here in the DAX we could be in a situation now I think where we probably have a wave three high in place here so I'm going to redraw this what I'm looking for now is a move equal to the wave two consolidation to develop so what I do is I just measure those overlay this versus our high and that gives me a target area for this if we're going to see this corrective move play out here so what we've been looking for is something like this into that ascending trend line support 13,780 and then we look for our wave five extension to play out equal at a minimum to our wave one here and so you can see just overload that versus that and that gives us our target so what I've looked for is any move into that 13,780 to engage which a bullish reversal patterns a gauge on the long side and that gives us a target up into 14,650 monthly projected range resistance coming in there at 14,580 similarly in terms of in terms of identifying you know the the quality of the structure that we're actually trading if we take out this support area on a closing basis then we could be looking in a more protracted all that developing but for now we want to trade the sequence as it's playing out in in front of us so 13,780 is the key support area to watch on the downside moving to the Nikkei. Nikkei traded to our target but we identified last week now we are looking at another test of support here so we have this word pattern developing so what we're looking for is support to hold here into 27,760 what's the bullish reversal pattern is there and really what then what we'd need or want to see is a confirmation to close back through this trend line resistance so take out the 28,150 area on a closing basis to encourage long positions next upside objective is 28,745 is our target as long as we hold support here at the 27,700 if we take that out on a closing basis that suggests that we'll we'll see a deeper pullback and we have this trend line support coming in down to 26,500 there on the downside so we take this out on a closing basis certainly look at here on the daily time frame then that will encourage short positions to work to target the support zone to the downside. Nifty another one we were looking at last week it's got a nice clean bullish structure we're looking for a test of the trend line didn't get it we extended up into the target zone and we're now seeing a pullback so what I look for now in the nifty is any three wave corrective move that tests and holds into the 18,130 area to engage on the long side looking for a minimum five equals one objective we have our wave one here you can see we're just measuring that in terms of the quality test so that gives a test up into 18,700 as our upside objective there in terms of the nifty moving to the bonds TLT traded to our target we've actually hit our second target of the 101 level so we're now looking at a further upside extension next target on TLT is going to be 102,85 level on the upside so we can adjust our target there now and we'll be looking for let me just let me draw that so we have this scenario playing out moment so we're looking for that 102,70 area if we can get through there on a closing basis and this is an important piece of market generating information in terms of my style of trading these markets is that if we can get close through that 102,85 then this move is going to start to become impulsive as opposed to corrective and so any close through there and I'm going to reassess upside targets here because what we'd look for would be the extensions versus this being a wave one and so we can then start to think about the 261 extension on the upside 105,60s and the more often the more likely target we would actually trade on the upside is that 110 which is the 3618 extension of our wave to consolidation which we often see play out in terms of the technical targets to the upside moving to the dollar index and some these forex pairs so dollar index traded through our target at 107 and then we were looking for a test of 105,97 which we've got so we now have a new downside objective and let's see if we can identify an entry opportunity here so if we use the swing structure we would look for a test now into 10750 we have this descending trend line resistance so this is the type of scenario I'll be looking for here now is this three-way corrective move to test up into this area and then we look for our next downside objective which is the 161 extension at 104,40s in terms of the next target on the downside at this stage we really need to close back above 108,60 to suggest that the downside correction in terms of the dollar is potentially complete possible but less problem I would suggest at this stage we look for this resistance just below the 108 handle bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side 105,104,40s would be the next downside objective so obviously we have the euro trading inverse to the dollar let's see where our target is here so again we are looking for a three-way corrective move to play out that's done here so we're looking now for the euro to pull back into this 102,50 area from there watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side next upside objective the euro is 106,20s now that 106,20s here on the weekly timeframe coincided with the weekly trend line resistance back from those highs posted in 2021 there so we've got some nice confidence developing there so we want to watch for this pullback to come into that 102,40,102,50 area look for a bullish reversal pattern there engage on the long side you can equally if you're a little bit more risk averse and wait for the price to clear back through the trend line resistance here trend channel that we have developing so back through the 104 handle still got plenty of upside to play for there in terms of targeting that 106,20 on the upside at this stage it really take close back through trend line support here the 101,80s to suggest a more meaningful highs in place and then pull back first objective would be to the midpoint of the channel here just above parity sterling similar setup we are looking now let me just remove that and bring in our trend based extension tool and get some targets here so we want to see sterling put in a test of 117,30s from there we watched the bullish reversal patterns so this is the pattern we're looking at three wave corrected move now into that 107,20 got some trend line support just below 117 and then we look for our upside extension to our target area of 120,60 let's see we've got a question here um yeah i'll i'll try and find that at the end uh Jorge the EWZ Brazilian ETF yeah i'll i'll see if we can dig that out on trading view once uh once i run through these other charts so that's what we're looking for here 117,20 bullish reversal patterns engage on the long side are we looking for move up into 120 dolly yen this one hit our targets last week we were looking for 143,20 141,13 and then we ultimately traded down into a target 139,20s so what's the what's the information we get from this well if you think about what i was just saying with respect to these 161 extensions once we trade through these this then gives us a high probability scenario that we're in an impulsive move and so we look then for three wave corrections to to engage on the short side so if we use this so versus this low here our swing high so our first area of interest is going to be three wave corrected move that essentially takes us into 141,40s and see we've got a high volume node here or high volume area sorry so 141,40 is going to be an area of interest and from there we'll be looking for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side and let me just show you another measurement that's also worthwhile let's use this so we've got some additional confidence there versus this last major corrected move so 141,30 141,40 we're looking for bearish reversal patterns here and we want to engage on the short side and we've been looking then for a five equals one downside objective and let's overlay that so there so that will actually give us a new target on the downside of 134,30s and we on the daily time frame here we see 134,90s is the high volume node over the past year so you can see the confidence developing there for that downside test so pay close attention to 141,30 141,50 area which bearish reversal patterns there and we are going to be told to move down to 134,15,135 as the next major downside objective in terms of the dollar yen moving to dollar CAD so I'm also traded to our target from last week we were looking for a test of 133,20s we got that and we are now looking for 131,60 so we're looking at a three wave corrected move here let's move this over a bit so the initial area that I'd be interested in watching is move equal in scope to the last corrected leg so 134,04 is the area to watch here watch a bearish reversal patterns to engage on the downside 131,60s is the next upside objective if we clear that 134 if we don't get any response in terms of sellers there then we'd anticipate that we get up into this the midpoint of the prior channel there coming in 134,90,135 again from there watch bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side targeting the move down to that 131,60s in terms of the dollar CAD the Aussie also traded to targets 67,60 was our target and we we've clipped that and we're now seeing pullback so what we're looking for here in terms of the Aussie is this swing here so we're testing into the support area here so we're watching now to see if we can get bullish reversal patterns in this 66,10 area bullish reversal patterns there our next upside objective in terms of the Aussie is going to be 68,80s on the upside is the target area the next technical target for the upside extension here we didn't really get any meaningful divergence into that last high so that leads me to believe that there's a high probability this is a wave three high so we're looking for a wave four low and a fifth wave upside extension similar setup in terms of the Kiwi Kiwi traded to targets from last week 61,60s so we are now looking for a three wave pullback to develop here let's move that for one second bring in our measurement tool so we're sitting right into the support area here a daily projected range score at that 60,50 level so we want to see bullish reversal patterns here and and then we're going to be looking for a fifth wave extension to the upside initially we are our target level is going to be 62,40s that's the first area of interest that's the high volume node on the daily time from there so that's going to be our target so we want some bullish reversal patterns at 60,50 area and then we're targeting to move up into the 62,40s on the upside moving to gold again traded through our target we were looking for a test last week 17,50 got through that on a on that CPI print last week and so what we're looking at now is a corrective move to play out here one two three four five six so we should at least see another move to the upside so we're looking at a three wave correction back into 17,50 that's the area I'd be paying attention to if we can test and hold 17,50 then we are looking for the next upside objective will be 18,20s on the upside in terms of in terms of gold so we want to see a retest 17,50 bullish reversal patterns there we engage on the long side and we're looking then for 18,20 as our next upside objective for this move in terms of gold crude oil still in this range trade I talked about this last week nothing for me to do here let's just draw in where we have the new quality objective now yeah so you as I suggested last week we're going to we're holding this range so what I'm looking for is an equal legs move that gets us down into this 81 handle got daily projected and monthly projected range support there so we watch for bullish reversal patterns in this area and the first upside objective is going to be back into the high volume node at 88 in terms of crude oil and wrapping up with Bitcoin consolidating after the significant declines driven by the FTX scandal looking for a test here of 18,320 versus this swing low at 15,800 but again and I've pressed this over the weeks and the area I'm really interested in in terms of Bitcoin is 12,185 if we get down there I'm going to be looking to establish a long term position in Bitcoin as I believe that that's that's going off some real value but the high volume node just below 10,000 that's going to be a key area for of interest for me anyway I don't trade Bitcoin that regularly in terms of from a leveraged position I do I do hold it in terms of my balance sheet as a position trade from time to time and that 12,185 is an area that I'm looking to to acquire some exposure to Bitcoin on a longer term I'm talking about a three to five-year outlet not a leveraged trading position as such so that gives you the whistle stop tour of what I'm watching as we head into the back end of next week back end of this week's orient into the other part of next week so Huawei EWZ let's see if we can find that and we'll have take a quick look at it doesn't look like they they have it let's try again EWZ yeah here we go let's take a look at this let's start on the weekly time frame first of all and connect some areas of interest so trading I would suggest in a triangle here on the weekly time frame let's go down to 2569 so I would be looking at any close through the trend line support here on a daily basis 2924 to target a move down to 2550 and then from there on the daily time frame we're watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side the first target on the upside then would be 3197 the high volume there on the weekly chart similarly on the daily charts 3190 so yeah any well I can you can see actually in the pre-market we're actually going to open below that trend line support so the downside target now on this one is 2560s 2570s and then from there watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and next target there 3180s and we get through there then trend line resistance 3460s any other questions anyone want me to take a look at the chart haven't covered my presentation there does that make sense Huawei okay I can't see any questions coming through one thing I will do just quickly for those who are here for the first time here's the link to that the Facebook group I run you can just request access and you'll get my daily trade plan for the S&P 500 and then for those who want to follow along with the setups in terms of the trading view account I'll post a link for that okay guys if there aren't any other questions you're welcome Huawei we'll wrap this one up here and we'll reconvene at the same time next week as always trade us plan the trade trade the plan most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much