 Okay, Traders, that is 1pm GMT and we are about to get started with this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munnerly, before we get going, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent to today's presentation is the fact that the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They are not indicative or representative of those held by TickMill UK or TickMill Europe Limited. So, for those of you here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself. As I say, my name is Patrick Munnerly and after I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found an exit to consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially I had a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. So, I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately at that stage day gambling. And after some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, the beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hit to my personal capital. So, this was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences and understatement. So, I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So, I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months was a time during which I upped not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing, extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality and all of which were most importantly underpinned by a rigorous risk management strategy. But most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process orientated. So, what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you accept and understand the true nature of trading, simply being a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster ride of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So, I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of an individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades. So, I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. And since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. And since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm also resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tickmail clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook. I break down the fundamental and technical drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for about two or three markets that I'm actively tracking for the trading day ahead. And I share those through the tickmail trading view account. I'll post a link for that account at the end of today's presentation. I also run tickmills rapidly growing E-mini strategy group where I post a daily trade plan, outlining my pre-market thoughts for the cash trading session in New York. I give my bias for the day ahead and specific action areas and trade levels where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have offered over 7,500 points of profit since we launched the group in April 21. The second tickmills strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The tickmail futures telegram group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights, analysis and real-time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the cash trading session in New York where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the markets and how I identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and those mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. That gives you a flavour of where it is I'm coming from. Let's jump into today's material. I would say if you have any questions during today's presentation or specifically to any of the charts I cover or trading questions in general, I would ask that you just drop those into the chat box and at the end of the presentation I will come back to them and cover off any questions that are posted there. Equally, if you have an instrument that you're interested in that I don't cover in my presentation you're welcome to drop that into the chat box as well and I'll give you a view on the charts at at the end of the presentation. So let's jump into the charts for this week and we are starting as always with the S&P 500. I use the e-mini futures contract. Trades are spread from the SPOT contract. Currently I think the spread is about five points as let's see. Let me just take a look and I'll give you the exact spread. So yeah the the SPOT market is trading 39 38 and we're trading 39 43 in the futures. So it's about five points difference if you're looking to assimilate these levels to the cash market but I like I say use the futures market. And so what we've been tracking over the past few weeks is a corrective sequence and what I'm looking for now is one more one more low here. Ideally I'd like to see us push up today into the 39 65 39 70 area. From there intraday I'll be looking for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side and what I'm ultimately looking for is a test down towards this 3900 level. And from this 3900 level I'm looking to I'm looking for bullish reversal patterns. Importantly and for those that that are here on a weekly basis you'll know this but it's good to just go over it. I'm always keen to identify momentum divergence so when I'm looking to enter a trade against the current dominant trend and obviously when I talk about trends the reality is trends exist on time frames you know you can have an extremely bullish one-minute chart and you can have an extremely bearish 15-minute chart. So don't get caught up in the idea about you know trading against the trend etc. What I'm what I'm ultimately looking for on the time frame I'm trading is some momentum divergence. So if I'm looking to play a move that is counter to the current trend in the market what I want to see is a loss of momentum i.e. it's taking more effort in this instance from the sellers to make new lows than it has done in terms of price making previous lows. So that for me on the charts is identified as divergence with the the momentum indicator I use which is called a psych indicator. It is essentially just an enhanced version of the RSI so no voodoo or holy grail here it is it is just a slightly tweaked version of the RSI. I also have it colored it gives me better visual straight away I can pick up where I see momentum. So at this stage like I say any move into this 3965 3970 area I'm looking for bearish reversal patterns I want to see one more low down into this 3910 3900 barrier and then from there I'm looking to engage on the long side. Now when I say I'm looking to engage on the long side I'm not necessarily talking about holding a position for days or weeks I'm I'm generally when I use these intraday for our timeframes and personally when I'm trading the E-mini S&P I'm using much lower timeframes intraday but I'm looking for a move essentially that will first and foremost test what I call or what is term the high volume nodes. What the high volume node simply refers to is over the the period the time period we're looking at here so we're talking about the beginning of December 22 obviously up now until the beginning of March here so over this time period the highest amount of volume has traded at this price that's 3991 so when I engage on the long side my immediate target for the trade is going to be a essentially a reversion back into that high volume node that's the first target the second target is going to be this pitchfork you can see I've overlaid a pitchfork here versus the current swing structure that we've got so that would take us into the 4000 level so that for this trade for this setup that I'm tracking at the moment that's what I'm looking for so that's and obviously if we don't if we don't find buyers here at the at the 3900 level then I'm certainly going to be starting to think about the idea that we're going to extend further to the downside and we're going to be retesting the key support area back into the 3788 but for now 3900 is where I'm interested in establishing long positions 3965 3970 is where I'm interested in establishing in intraday short positions looking for that downside target so let's move out to and I would just again for those that are here for the first time in the weekly timeframe I'm tracking this setup here so I use what I refer to as equality objectives it's the in elite wave terms it's either the abc structure or the wxy structure but essentially what I'm looking for is price to move in equal legs and that's going to give us a target to the upside of 4465 so that's my long-term target whilst we hold support at that 3790s just to just let you know what I'm thinking about long term moving to the NASDAQ similar idea really to the the S&P this is I posted this this chart earlier in the week this was the setup I was looking for on Monday I was looking for a rejection at the pivot and I moved down into tests our equality objective 11865 we've got that test a little four-hour pinball reversal there we've got some momentum divergence so what I'm looking for now will be let me just remove that I'll show you the setup I would look for here in terms of establishing longs so what I'd want to see here is a close through that little this internal channel here so any close now on a four-hour basis through 11900 I'm going to look to engage on the long side and as with the S&P my first target is going to be what I imagine would be a three-wave initially a three-wave corrected move you've got to think all trends or all impulse moves start as corrections and we would be targeting initially that weekly pivot there and the high volume node back into 12106 from there then we'll see if buy side momentum really does kick in and we are the correction is complete and then we'd be looking to target the the trend channel resistance this corrective channel that we've been in so back up to 12600 will be the next objective but by obviously by the time we get into this high volume node I certainly want the trade to be risk free take the risk off the table and and trade for that upside objective moving to the Dow Jones the Dow has has a structure here posted this chart as well at the beginning of the week I'm looking for another low in terms of the Dow this these this drawing that you can see here on the chart this I posted this on Monday and you can see we've tracked it pretty well so far this week I'm looking for one more push to the downside the target area for me is this equality objective again when I'm talking about equality all I'm simply referencing is this swing versus this high into this low so it's equal legs so we're looking for a test of 32 000 just about 32 000 and obviously what we're paying attention to is we want to see as price makes that new low we don't want to see a new low in terms of momentum study as long as that setup is maintained we watch a bullish reversal patterns there initially we will look for a test of the corrective trend channel resistance which will take us back up into 32 000 at 665 so again you know you're looking you're talking there about 600 points on a four hour chart certainly the trade is going to be risk free by then and then we'll see if this corrective structure is complete you can see I've drawn it here on the weekly time frame a little bit clearer let me just blow that up for you and you can see actually exactly what we're looking at so this is the impulse leg this is the correction abc 32 000 and then we're looking for that upside extension and the higher time frame target will actually be up into this trend channel resistance coming in 34 430s but we don't get it carried away we're taking it step by step you know if we're entering a trade on the four hour time frame we're identifying those four hour targets but we've always got in the back of our mind those higher time frame objectives as well let's move to the dax oh wait a minute just take a sip of water here okay so the dax again we've been tracking this corrective move and this this drawing is from a couple of weeks ago I didn't do a session last week I was offline but you can see we've traded into this support zone so what I'm looking for now is the dax to extend to the upside we're looking for a test of 16 000 now what I would state here and something to pay attention to is the weekly trend and when I talk about the trend these candles are coloured versus a five period look look back of a volume weighted average price and so this is a the five period look back on the weekly time frame has actually turned bearish so we want to pay attention to that this we got that bearish rejection candle last week and now we've got this inside potential pin bar developing so if we don't find support here above the 15 000 level there is the potential that we're going to roll over here and and see a deeper corrective pullback but for now we're watching for bullish reversal patterns into this support zone for an extension to the upside to test the 16 000 level moving to the euro stocks 50 this another one that's been on a tear you can see this was the drawing from a couple of weeks ago and we haven't quite met our corrective objective let me just remove that for now and bring in the trend based the extension tool and we'll get a target for this correction and we'll see if buyers are going to step in so we're looking for a test of 41 36 on the downside which would complete the correction I'd anticipate at this stage we're looking at a wxy scenario so we'd look for a three wave here in this y wave of the complex correction I don't want to get too bogged down in the technical terms here but ostensibly we're looking for a test of 41 36 from there we're going to see if buyers step in and bullish reversal patterns and we will engage on the long side looking for the next leg to the upside 42 43 80s would be the target there we have a 45 11 on the weekly which is the equality objective so you want to keep that one in mind so only move into this 41 36 area watching for bullish reversal patterns and we're looking to engage on the long side cat 40 cat 40 is the uh the other European index that have been tracking the footsie in terms of making all-time highs and we have a target for the cat here 75 50s versus this swing low at the 63 30s let's see if we have an entry into this trade i'm going to remove the drawings for now and we again we're going to use the trend based fiv extension tool to give us a target 71 20s which coincides with weekly projected range support that's identified by this yellow line so we are looking for a three wave here into this 71 20s from there we're watching for bullish reversal patterns we want to engage on the long side certainly then we think about a test up into the purple line the purple line represents monthly projected range of resistance at this stage so 74 93s obviously by that stage the trade would be risk free any pullbacks then back into these highs should find support for an extension then up into our higher time frame target 75 50s footsie this one had uh have been on a tear this was the drawing from a couple of weeks ago didn't get uh didn't get that upside extension again with as with all these things and and certainly in trading not everything works hundred percent of the time guys and so don't don't get disheartened if uh if some of these these trades don't play out um what you're looking for ultimately is anything from 40 to 60 percent and as long as your risk reward ratio is correct you'll come out on top over time so we are looking for an extension to the upside in terms of the footsie let's get ourselves the channel here now this is the channel off the current highs what i refer to is the corrective channel and and on the daily here you can see we got a nice reversal pattern yesterday what we're potentially putting in here is an inside uh bullish pin bar and so if we can get a move back through 79 50s let's say 79 60 on a closing basis i'm going to engage on the long side and i'm targeting uh the next leg to the upside is the equality objective which will have us trading 81 94s so if we can get that closed through the 79 60 we're going to engage on the long side targeting move up into our equality objective just shy of 8200 on the footsie let's move to the nifty here nifty i am now looking for a test of the let's just extend this over here so you guys can see it so this is our equality objective we have 17 218 we also have our 78.6 retracement of this last impulse leg so that five wave sequence this is a complex correction at the moment that's all we know that that's the tradable information at this stage so what i look for now is a pull back into this support zone we watch for a bullish reversal patterns here to engage on the long side first and foremost we look for the high volume node then the trend channel resistance look for a break there and then we can start to think about the next leg to the upside in terms of the nifty obviously any close through that's a 17200 level would be a bearish development and we think about a retest of the pivot there the swing load back down into 16783 but for now we're going to use this as a corrective sequence versus this clear five wave impulse and we will look to establish longs into the 17200 area let's move this forward into the FX domain as we as we're kicking on in time here so dollar index as as those were here last week before last i'm looking for 105 57 i've been long the dollar this has been a great trade but i'm looking for 105 57 i'm looking for momentum divergence to be maintained so we test that 105 57 area bearish reversal patterns there no new high momentum and i'm going to be engaging on the short side and certainly we think about first test high volume load 103 89 and then the projected trend channel sport weekly projected range sport 103 50s obviously any close through 105 57 i would use the daily close for this one but if we get any close through there our next upside objective is going to be 106 50s moving to the euro dollar euro dollar we are looking for a new low in terms of the euro dollar 104 30s is our target so that would complete this corrective sequence the equality objective from there i'd be looking for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and we would look for the next leg to develop to the upside certainly we look for a retest the price cycle highs and then on potentially two new highs in terms of the euro sterling similar type of setup here versus this swing high here we have an equality objective 117 80s and again from there bullish reversal patterns and i'm going to engage on the long side that should broadly coalesce with the idea of shorting the dollar index above that 105 50 area and then we are looking for a test into weekly trend channel resistance 126 80s in terms of sterling dollar yen coming close to our target zone here 137 20s we do have momentum divergence in play here so as price is making new high you can see this almost in real time we are watching for a rejection here from 137 20s as long as we don't get new high momentum i'm going to be looking for bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side first stop it's going to move back into test those prior highs 134 60s in terms of dollar yen for a trade the Aussie couple of areas of interest here i want to watch for bearish reversal patterns at 68 tens i'd be a seller there and i'd look to take it down into our target zone which is 66 34s from there watch for bullish reversal patterns from gauge on the long side again this would this is based around this idea that they give the dollar index topping out and then we get the move up into our first target high volume node 69 kiwi slightly more bullish sequence in the kiwi here we can see i've tracked a potential five wave here so any move up into the 62 90s watch for a fade there back into test support 61 90s again i'd be a buyer there if we get bullish reversal patterns first target is going to be the pivot there at 63 80s for a trade gold similar type of setup there to the antipodeons obviously we watch for push into 80 1850s three wave correction back into 1820s i want to be a buyer there if we get bullish reversal patterns on four hour time frame first stop is going to be 1880 and then up to 1890 for a trade let's check in with bitcoin bitcoin i'm looking for a test of the 21 500 area from there i'm watching for bullish reversal patterns i think that is a great entry then to get a test up into the yearly pivot which would see us trading just shy of 27 000 there so this one has great risk reward potential so we want to see bullish reversal patterns in this 21 500 21 300 area and then we have a nice juicy upside target just shy of 27 000 uh what have we got to the time to i'm just pushing the time here so i'm going to wrap i'm going to wrap this up here i'll leave you with that that bitcoin idea do we have any questions uh benego let's see you have a question uh please can you analyze gold um yep just did that was helpful um so to me it looks constructive what i was looking for uh benego was this uh corrective sequence so we have this move here we were looking for 1800 on the downside came just shy what did we get 1810 that's uh that's close enough for government work and so we are looking now for any pullbacks into 1820 1830 bullish reversal patterns there and i'm going to be engaged on the long side and we want to uh initial upside objective is going to be in 1880 1890 uh benego continue no problem benego there's a um there'll be a recording posted on the youtube channel so uh so don't worry about that mario you've also asked about gold i think hopefully i've covered that you know the levels i'm looking at now i am getting constructive on gold obviously we want to see the dollar index topping out to really uh to really invigorate the gold trade um chris can you look at the ten year bond yeah i can i've uh let me pull that up for you chris ten year yield topping just over that four percent mark so let me give you a view on that uh a couple of things i want to do i'm gonna see where the 127 extension of that last swing is that gives us 4.063 percent and we have a one two three four five six seven eight nine eleven swing so that's uh what i look for here ah now do we have momentum divergence just i would anticipate chris at this stage um i'd prefer the divergence to be a bit more pronounced personally but what i see developing here is a fifth wave extension up into this 4.063 percent area and then from there i would look for a three-wave corrective move and what i'd look for in terms of that correction chris and i'll i'll draw it first and then i'll show you what i'm looking at um again i don't want to get into the weeds on on any way but i personally i think about it as simple structures but what we have here is a one two this could potentially be our third wave here then i'd look for a fourth equal to two so probably a little bit higher actually and then we'd look for a fifth equal to one so let's just uh do this so something like this and we overlaid that with that gives us five so i'd be looking at this type of structure chris so uh let's say just shy of uh 4.1 percent would be the uh the objective now what i'd look for here as well chris is on this this potential five uh we'd certainly want to see momentum divergence and the good the great information you can get from from the momentum study is when this thing's breaking highs and we're trading into this potential target zone what that's telling me is there's a high probability that this is still that we're in a third wave extension so really don't want to get into the game of fading three is what i prefer to do is buy a four and then try and sell into a fifth once we have potential momentum divergence developing so that makes sense chris uh kiwi yen yeah let's take a look at that yeah this uh that's an ugly chart but on the daily let's pull that out yeah not uh not a great chart i mean to my mind anyway it's when i when i pull up a chart to analyze it if i don't immediately see if i can't immediately recognize a pattern that just tells me to shut the chart basically but what i would say um in a broad sense here is that um we are trading you know simply in a range at the moment with the potential for that range i guess to turn into maybe a um an ascending triangle type scenario uh let's see let me just turn that around bring here yeah so there's the potential that you know we've got it it's developing into an ascending triangle which triangles generally tend to break with trends so if uh if we zoom out a little bit here and we can see that we've been trading to the upside so what you'd anticipate or what i would anticipate certainly is that we break to the upside and if we do my target would be that initially that 127 extension 90 69 so any break through the 88 handle that would be the first upside objective there Chris that i'd be looking at yeah uh yeah potentially monthly flag yeah same same same principle um just looking at the slope of these slightly higher lows here and these uh this steady top for an extent for a triangle break okay guys any other questions no problem at all chris you're very welcome uh can't see any other questions coming through what i will do for those that are interested i will drop the tick mill uh the facebook group the link i'm posting into the chat now uh you just simply request access and you can get access there to that daily trade plan and i post some other institutional research and interesting uh institutional insights and uh last but not least the trading view so for those that want to follow along with the trade ideas on a daily basis you can uh you can follow them through the trading view account okay guys that's uh that's a wrap for me as always plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much