 Okay, good morning, so my name is Jose Jimenez, I am professor at the Technical University of Catalonia and now we are going to try to downscale a bit, so this morning so we start with sea level rise, now with impacts and now we are going for adaptation. We are going to talk about adaptation to climatic coastal impact and with the special reference to relative sea level rise or to sea level rise. This is the what type of impact, so this is the result of a survey that we did the last year in the, in a, in an initiative for the GPI climate and GPI ocean, so we launch a survey between the stakeholders in Europe and we have about 200 respondents and we asked the people to identify which were the most important impacts related to sea level rise in the different bases around Europe, so here you have the resulphur or the basin, the North Sea, the Mediterranean, the Eastern Atlantic, the Baltic, the Black Sea, the Arctic and the last one it is the all the basin together. As you can see, so there is a high variability, so that when we talk about impact and we talk about adaptation, so there is a high variability even inside the same country. The most important, so when the people sink in sea level rise, so all the people sink in inundation, so the most important impact identified by all the basing was erosion, so what's the first one? So the second one was increasing the stone impacts and also damage to infrastructure and to private property and the third one was permanent flooded, so gradual inundation, so in Europe apparently, so gradual inundation or permanent inundation is not the most important impact and this most important impact have very much related to the indices that Ross presented before, that are sea level rise, coastal erosion and coastal flats, so that we are on the same way but we are approaching from a different standpoint. So in the same survey, so we asked the people okay, these are the impacts, so how your countries are adapting to this, so the first question that we asked is about the effectiveness of the sea system adaptation strategy in the different countries and the most answer or the most common answer was that they were insufficient, they were not effective enough according to their criteria and also we asked about the what was their opinion about the flexibility of the sea system coastal adaptation plans and again the most important is that they disagree that the plan where flexible enough in order to cope with expected variation in sea level rise, increase in sea level rise and so on, so then we have a problem, so then we have a strategy that's apparently according to the stakeholder, the stakeholder where researchers but also people working in governments, so from the 200 from all the bases in Europe, so this is quite representative, so then this is where we are, so we have a problem with adaptation. When we talk about coastal adaptation, so we are talking about adjusting to the impact and the potential risks associated with the climatic hazard but here mostly with sea level rise and essentially involves to implement a strategy to enhance the coastal resilience and to reduce the vulnerability, however we have to take into account that any coastal adaptation plan typically requires a long time in order to be implemented and this is a problem essentially because the current risks are getting worse, so just looking to the indicator that Ross presented, so the sedimentary coastlines are already rolling without sea level rise, the strong impact and damage are frequent and apparently they are increasing, so we are getting worse, so we require a long time to implement adaptation, so this is a problem and especially the problem is that apparently for the people say okay for coastal adaptation we need a lot of money, no you need a lot of time and this is a problem, so the most evident decline in resource for adaptation is not money, it is time, so if we delay in order to implement adaptation, so we have a very big problem and it is nothing, it is not related to money, it's related to time, okay, just to give you an idea, so here we have, sorry, here we have different typical coastal adaptation works and in blue it is the typical lifetime at the triangle in white, it is the typical implementation and planning time in order to implement this, so means that in just to give you an idea, so we require one third of the lifetime in order to implement at coastal adaptation, in the best situation where you have money and so on, so then we have a problem that if we don't start just now, so we have a future problem in coastal adaptation. How can we approach, so the typical approach is okay, what if, or what will look cool if this change is happening, so then with this, so we identify which is the impact and with this side, which is the response to implement it, however the new approach or the, no the new, so probably the most adequate approach, it is what we call the adaptation tipping point approach, so it's how much change are we able to cope with, so with this, it is which are the conditions that we are not able to maintain our objectives for the coastal, so and then when this occurs, so just to show you an example, so here we are in Italy, so this is a typical Italian beach in the Adriatic during summer, so all the surfaces are occupied by people, so the 11 percent of the PMB, the GMP in in the Mediterranean is coming from tourists, so then we have a problem if coastal erosion is taking place, I know we are expecting that silver rise is also going to produce an additional erosion, so here we have in the Y axis, so we have the recreational Caribbean capacity of the beaches that depend on the surface and in the Y axis, so we have silver rise, so we are going to identify when silver rise is going to produce a problem related to recreational Caribbean capacity, so for my country, for Italy, I am from Spain, but imagine that I am from Italy, so okay, my objective is to maintain the recreational Caribbean capacity at the 90 percent, if the Caribbean capacity decreased below the 90 percent, we have a problem in the economy, so here we have the expectation, this is the blue line, on how the recreational Caribbean capacity decreased with silver rise, according to the spectator ocean, here we have an additional problem, so here we have a line, but we have some shadow area around the line and this is the uncertainty produced by using different models to estimate erosion from silver rise, because we are not going to predict erosion, we are going to predict silver rise from what we presented this morning, very early morning, so oh sorry, we need a model to convert this to erosion and there is not a unique model, so we need different models and we have some uncertainty, so then when we go to our point, so we identify which is the expected silver rise that is going to produce this failure in the objective, so here it is okay, we require 50 centimeter of silver rise in order to have a problem, so now the time we have another uncertainty, so depending on how the silver rise will change, which is the scenario, so this tipping point will occur at different times, so just to give you an example, here we identify 50 centimeter silver rise for the tipping point, we go to the NASA tool that was presented this morning and we look for the side which is the time in order to obtain this decline in the objective, so here, oh I'm sorry, here we have the different, this is time in the x-axis and here we have for the different scenario and we have different times in order to have this tipping point, so we have an uncertainty in the prediction of the time and once we, sorry in the prediction of the silver rise, when we have the silver rise we have also an uncertainty on when this will occur, so this is a problem for adaptation, so when will start to adapt, I just want to illustrate which are the problem in adaptation, okay, so now we know when to do it, what to do, so here are the typical response or the different kind of response to coastal risk and silver rise according to the IPCC, so probably all of you know this very well, so here we have from, this is the current situational response, advanced protection, retreat accommodation and ecosystem, just to give you some examples, so this is for protection, so forget the table, so here protection means that we are going to do something very active in order to cope with the risk, with the coastal risk, with silver rise, so when we talk about coastal protection, so we think in two different strategies, setting in base and hard protection, setting in base, very flexible, hard protection, very robust and we can predict very well which are the safety level, problem, hard protection is very expensive, in many cases they cannot be affordable for poor country, setting in base, apparently it is very flexible, very easy to implement and here we have a very good example, but this is unique, so this is a protection strategy for silver rise in the Netherlands, so you will never, oh you will know, you cannot see anything similar to this in any different country, so here they put 21.5 million of COVID meter of science in six months in order to be protected for the next 20 years, of course you can do, but you probably this is very difficult to find anywhere, but this is a very good example and here we have the, this is what they did in 2011 and it is expected that this sediment will be distributed along the coast and will protect the coast for the next 20 years, so it's a very good example in terms of advancing time, so we are preventing the expected impact for the next 20 years, however all the sediment-based strategy with the exception of the Netherlands, they put the hand on the North Sea and there's plenty of sand, so we have to answer several questions before to say that our future adaptation will be based on sediment, so how much sediment do we need for the future? We want to adapt for the next 100 years, 50 years, whichever, so how much sand do we need? The second question is do we have sand enough and can't we afford, so then this, all of this is related to, we need to identify a strategic sediment reservoir in order to get all the results for to be adapted for the future and again we have a problem, so here we have in the x-axis we have time, this is the sediment volume that we have and here we have the two, that's the line horizontal, it's according to the available stock in your site and here it is the requirements of sediment according to the different scenario and again, we have an uncertainty once we've identified that we have a strategic sediment reservoir, how long this reservoir will be useful in order to get the sediment, so we have a big uncertainty in predicting the tipping point, we have a big uncertainty on how will this tipping point occur and now we have a big uncertainty, also which is the use of how much sediment we can use in the next 10 or 20 or 30 years depending on this, so this probably this is very much related to why the people is still going to refine the adaptation plan because we have a lot of problems in order to go from the global numbers to the local numbers, this is pure local, so in mind if we have this uncertainty with local numbers, so with the previous number that Ross presented and Ross was very clear in this, so don't use for local adaptation just to get an idea, it's very useful to identify the hottest spot which part of the country is going to be more sensitive or not, but once you go to adaptation you have to go to the local level, this is hard protection, the tains barrier, so how many countries of this can afford this and even the problem that this need to be updated and the upgrade of this for the new sea level so must cause a huge amount of money so that it is a huge amount of money to implement and now to update for the new sea level rise because the operating gates need to be a great in order to cope with the expected sea level rise so it will be also very expensive, so just to give you an idea about the two different strategies so now we will go to accommodation, accommodation it is also a very common adaptation strategy but normally this only or very effective for a small sea level rise so we are talking about everyone insisting and we are talking also to some small actions in order to accommodate to the new situation, this is an example for coastal flooding or for sea level rise where we are only changing the flood proofing type of building in order to accommodate to the size so this is what is proposed a different type by FEMA and here we have some application for a coastal area in the east coast of the United States and here we have also for Nigeria where this is here for the city of Lagos where we have floating house so then we are adapting to this but of course this is only adapting for very small sea level rise rates if this is the sea level rise rate is the magnitude is very high so probably this will not be longer useful so we move also to advance so don't accommodate let's go to advance so this is very much related to hard protection so the problem it is very expensive so we can cope with relative high sea level rise and the cost is too much so here we have some example this is one example for the Atola Island in order to cope with relative sea level rise so when we have a natural Atola Island so probably the Atola Island will be able to cope with some sea level rise but when we build in the island so and then we have a problem so we have taken out the natural resilient of the island so we have to cope with this and one example this is a proposal for the Maldives where they are trying sorry they are trying to rise the land so of course again so imagine how much time do we need for this and how much money do we need for this but this is it is an existing option in all the different options that we have this is for an Atola Island in order to avoid migration and here we have for also this could be could be easily implemented in very large cities so this is an example for Tokyo and where there is a progressive adaptation to the sea level rise and depending on the how the sea level rise or the local sea level rise is it is increasing so then there will be a moment in which the system adaptation is not the longer value and they go to advance where they claim it is land claim they rise the land and they build again this can be affordable in saying that the price of the land there it's very high so then we can use the land price in order to pay for this type of advance so of course this cannot be applicable anywhere but this is also an adaptation level then we go to something that nobody like retreat and retreat nobody like because probably it is the adaptation option with the largest social conflict associated so nobody want to live but here in some cases it's not an adoption we have no money to do the other one there is not let's say in a cost benefit analysis or even for finances so we cannot write we cannot rise our here we have an example of Fiji where there is a plan for migration for planet relocation so here we have different billage that has been removed or they have a plan but again here this is a warning so decisions to move one billage that was affected by sea clones and by sea level rise and so on take more than 10 years in order to go to a new position so then again time is very important here time is very important especially because you have to negotiate with the people and then you need a strong public participation in order to decrease the social conflict so this is for Fiji and here we have an example from Europe this is fully different so here we're not talking that the people are at risk so here they eat the territory at risk this is an example for UK where they have retreat in this area permitting that they to be flooded during a storm and so on so then they remove some protection they put protection in the back and now this area is free and it is evolving on the sea level rise and under storm without any problem and here we have an additional example for Spain this is this is our not a billage this is a campsite so this is not a problem so here the retreat means spatial planning where we define a new setback and say the campsite must be behind the setback so here we are retreating we are removing the expected damage for sea level rise of the storm so this it is avoiding the damage in terms of other to the sea level rise or to the coastal hazard and finally what is this the way so if we go to Europe say the Green Deal natural based solution please don't use natural based solution use natural based measure solution if they are solving the problem we don't know it's for the future so let's say ecosystem based measure ecosystem or natural based measures so we have different example the idea is to hope or to help the natural resilience or to promote the natural resilience to the coast to this coastal reef so remember that this means to enhance resilience so here it is trying to promote the natural resilience so we have some examples so here we have for Nigeria here we have for Spain where we are trying to restore the original ecosystem in order to be protected however take care so if we plan a man group so go to the literature in order to see how much width how much why it must be a man group forest in order to protect the territory against the storm surge this is helping this is not solving okay if you want to be protected by a man group against a big storm surge so probably you will require several hundred meter of why forest of man group so then imagine so we are planting man group you require time in order to let the man group to grow so then this is helping but this is not solving the problem now again time is important and this is for this is a coastal view in Spain or the also to try to improve the resilience again the impact of the storm again so we require time in order to permit the deans to be forced and also we require a space in order to put all of this so they seem that when we are going to use natural base solution one of the most important resource is a space in order to implement or to recover the forest or to recover the deal so here we have an example also for Spain so this is the April Delta this is an agricultural area that is affected by impact of storm and we are expecting a high impact of silver rise there and this is a plan where we are going to restore the natural area before agriculture took place there so we are trying to answer we are trying to restore deans wetland and so on but we're required to buy the land to the agricultures in order to produce this natural base measure to cover with the risk so it is natural based but we require also a space and this means also to be associated to retreat all this typical response so probably are not effective just by themselves so probably the the most useful approach is that we have to combine and here appear what we call it appear what we call it the adaptation pathway approach essentially it's a sequence of different response in order to adapt in a long time to different changing conditions so during one time so probably sediment base could be useful but for a given silver rise it's not the longer useful we have to change to a different type of response so then it is a sequence of different response that we saw before so then all the response that we saw have to be combined in order to define our coastal adaptation plan for the future so here you have sign example for rural and for urban so in the copy of the presentation so you have these and also you have all the reference there where you can find detailed information about that just to finalize so for all of these so we have also some constraint to adaptation and we have what we call a limits and what we have barriers limits are technical technological limits so there is not an adaptation option available to reduce the impact here when we say that there is no adaptation option means in a given time I'm maintaining the functionality so in mind so of course I can put a seawall very high in order to protect the even delta and sea level rise there is no technological limit for that it is economic but if I do so the delta is losing the functionality so it is up solution but this is changing the functionality of the coastal when we talk about technological limit is one adaptation option that this is going to change the system functionality that we want to maintain barriers are something that can be overcome with some info and we talk about economic barriers if the implementation it is most costly that the benefit that they're going to produce financing that mean that probably this economical or feasible but we cannot access to the money to pay for so economic and financing are very different and finally the social conflict so we identify in an analysis that we did for many counter for different country that the most important barrier was social and just to finalize the take home measures so sea level rise is going to continue to rise as we mentioned before the coastal impact that presented by Ross will increase in the future so coastal adaptation will be needed even that we implement very efficient mitigation plans so we will require coastal adaptation second the most important application plan for the future is coastal impact can be avoided by preventing new development if we don't develop the coast very close to the shoreline so we are avoiding future problems so this is a very good coastal adaptation the response to sea level rise and to the coastal risk will be much more effective we combine and sequence some plan according to how the conditions will change and finally adaptation typically required in order to implement several decades to be implemented so time is important if we want to be adapted for the future so we have to start now and this is all for now thank you for your attention