 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger technician hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 Hello everyone Basil Chapman here Tiger technicians hour this is the 6th of April Wednesday and we're looking at the Dowdown 284 at 34,358 this is going to be a very important week in the sense that we've got some title changes and let's go through everything one at a time you had that buy signal to buy mode in the in the Dow daily we went to the peak D that's the obligation of the Chapman wave methodology let me just show you here so you've tried to identify the lowest low bar and then you can't eat successively higher peak alphabetized all the way through G ABCDFG it's at that fourth highest peak D that other things can happen doesn't have to but that's where you raise your foot of the accelerator hover over the brake and see how the next couple of bars act it doesn't matter what time frame so in this particular instance we've gone now below the 200 period moving average which was support was resistance not support and that's going to be very important the day is young anything can happen we're still looking at those monthly charts and the Dow the S&P etc but most importantly we have to go to the shorter term which is the Dow and the Dow has completed the buy mode to a D can go higher but this is where you got to be careful and in fact we have pulled back looking at the S&P also made that fourth highest peak peak D I just type in the wrong place always do that right here okay there it is the S&P is trading down 61 points at 44 63 it is holding the 50 period moving average it's gone underneath the 14 period exponential moving average the green line is still way above the 14 that's a good sign was a good sign if you're talking about strength it's a bad sign if it says wait a minute it's still has to cross negative and if it's going to go negative then the S&P will test the 200 period moving average at 4406 probably has to see if we can hold the 44 30s and that's going to be an important thing because a MACD hasn't crossed negative yet but it looks like it will stochastics under 80% on balance times just okay and the red interest strength is weakening so we don't want to even talk about the weekly and monthly yet let's see how this week goes just in terms of the daily chart we've got a buy mode going to the D the QQQ I was sure that that peak B would see some kind of a pullback and then just a modest new high recovery high above 371.83 for a leg C and maybe even a D nope we had that fantastic day on Monday on Monday a horrible day yesterday and a continuation of the horrible action and that could be a failure pattern this way under all the moving averages but the MACD is still good and stochastic is weak it's just under 80% to 79 on balance volume is terrible in the daily chart and the 90 still way above the 14 if that's going to go negative it probably have to go to the 342 343 level to see the 9 cross negative and confirm a sell signal to sell mode in the in the direction and you're looking at the IWM allows the action went to a peak D at the 200 p.m. moving average that's how important these 200 p.m. moving averages can be especially when its resistance or support resistance right here and now we've gone from the 212 level to 199 down four points today alone down four well that's down 2% that's one of the bigger losers in terms of the percentages now they're going to be important look the semiconductor index horrible action it rallied quite nicely above the 200 p.m. moving average then plummeted down and trading at 250 now just a week ago it was at the 282 area it's down eight dollars a tube at 250 not good action I'd be worried about this and as a big market participant you remember I talked about semiconductors as the oil mechanism for the economy just as in the 1900s and going into the 2000s where oil was so important it's still obviously is really important but the semiconductors have got equal weighting as far as I'm concerned just about everything that can move at all uses semiconductor chips and pretty much everything everything that we look at is dictated through the semiconductors so this is a very important moment and I suspect that at some point when they finally get the act together we'll have a problem because why because the there'll be a glut all these fabs that are going to be opening sometime this year and early next year alright let's do a couple of things what I want you to do was to show you that the TLT is trying to rally off the load today but it went to 127 49 I've been talking about this for some time let's just go through these things one at a time look the TNX the tenure treasury note yield remember this pattern the big cup pattern that actually looks like a ball and within it it can have a whole bunch of cups well the high that was made sometime in 2019 and about in the 27 28 area that's 2.8 saw a real a big plummet down to the low that was made March of 2020 that's when the market made its huge turnaround to the upside March of 23rd $3.98 so one yeah 3.98 so it goes down to 3.98 that's point 3.98 in reality and then he's back and I had this left side right side price time as this is what I'm going to be showing patterns like this in my webinar coming up how do you use them how can you use them in a short time frame how can you use them let's just go to this quickly just to show you something I used the same pattern of a decline with a measured move down and it did that it did that in a long period of time since so one o'clock this one o'clock yesterday all the way through the evening in the 10-minute e-mini chart finally broke down and retested it about five times at 7 o'clock this morning try to rally and then went to a lower low announced in a leg G maybe a trough G some kind of a bouncer coming very soon we'll see but these patterns are what I'll be talking about in my webinar for opening call subscribers and look what happened we've gone to a leg D remember these where we start to as long as the technicals are in place you can keep counting alphabetically but these way we raise your foot of the accelerator for a moment just to see what's going to happen in the next two three bars while we're in leg D in the weekly chart the high of 26.41 is that today yeah 26.41 is the high so far this week and the level that we were looking at to start the measured move was back in January of 2019 at about 27.99 2.799 and here we are and that was 19 so that's three years and look where we are gone to a leg D after a big ball formation now the trouble is with a ball formation anyone remember the XAU chart from 2000 where it was making this in gold was making this incredible ball formation and then broke out and had almost like you could have taken this and raise it vertically it was such a big move to the upside I just hope that we're not looking at rates doing the same thing right now there's a lot of resistance the next resistance is at 30 32.48 3.248 back in October of 2018 so we'll go one step at a time all I'm saying is that we've got to take this very seriously and then I'll talk about a couple of things that came up but what are we looking at based on the champion that George for the year that's what the webinar could be about are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio Tom O'Brien is here to help Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien found a TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you Tom's daily market newsletter Market Insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed these newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio get Tom O'Brien's newsletter Market 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at TFNN.com sign up today sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Hi folks just to show you a little something here with the techniques that I'm talking about on Wednesday 19-13 April 30th my webinar for subscribers to hopefully call it'll be on discord so sign up a little early if you haven't been there before just so you can practice a little bit to get it it's really very easy if I was able to do it I'm sure other people will be able to do it easily so we're looking at just the one minute chart of the ES mini this is the S&P and there's a price time move that says that by 1022 what are we at now by 1018 earlier there should be a test of the left side high of 958 and that is at 40 44 70 point 25 we're at 44 66 right now this is a bit of a way to go and we'll see what happens all right we'll just put that in and we'll talk about it when the time comes so here we go in the meantime back at the ranch these are the things I want to look at look at same price time as that I was talking about in the TLT and the TBT that's the inverse that's a that's the 10 year yield looks very much the same look he has the weekly chart he has the weekly chart I'll open it up there it is you've got from 22.60 on the left side back in about March peak D in the weekly chart that's the inverse of the TLT goes down to 15.53 running in leg D and today's high is 22.29 so a couple of just 30 cents or so off the the high that we were targeting and it actually has about a week or so to go in this particular pattern most importantly what we're looking at is that yields have been going higher as I said before the the bond market has basically done the work for the Fed all they have to do is formalize it and say yep now that's it so therefore we have to play catch up maybe 50 cents they talk about I think as soon as remember the market everyone says oh the market hates the unknown I say every single day the market there's an unknown the market hates the unknown about the unknown you move it once you have you you once removed and you've got a problem and that's really what we're looking at so I wouldn't be surprised if we're very close to seeing some kind of just a kind of a relief rally in the yields so that there's some kind of a pullback I didn't do this I didn't want to do it because I didn't want to go there but just I got a question about it and a statement about the yields saying where was it let me just try to find it here okay I can find it it is at the cat's been let out of the cage the rate increase is coming today all the insiders know it try to understand the TV TBT yep we're talking about that so look what happened remember I was amazed yesterday that I'd seen the five year scream out not climb over the the 30 year yield the five year why would you even bother with the 30 year yield we can get even better in a five year without the same time risk well today it went above the 2644 level it went to 2679 2.6 2.79 this is the five year and of course it's done finally would the ice is global and timber forest ggf is pulling back it's within that big long rectangle narrow rectangle can stay in the range longer than your patience but look what happened to the hgx the Philadelphia housing index plummets underneath the base of support is down eight at 395 so this is really important right let's get out of this so this the white is the 30 year yield the brown which is completely covered is the tenure yield and the cyan is the five year fvx yield aye aye aye that is a big breakout okay close the workspace yes to all and now look at this the IYT the IYT this is the I shares Dow Jones transportation average index fund I just too many words made the lowercase h upside down so that's the why the reverse why what I mean by that but in the Chadwick methodology what we do is we look for three basic patterns straight line up or down look there's a straight line down then a cup formation or an arch formation or a combination when it is the h pattern that takes out the left side lower that's the dreaded h you can go a lot lower it could even turn into an h that goes to a lowercase m pattern same with the reverse why this cup could have a second cup so that you get it took me so many years to finally figure out that um w is really a double d o u b l e u the letter u I mean I used to just say w right all of a sudden one day I say hey there's a double it looks like two u's that's a oh that's a double u and that's exactly what we're looking at here there's your double u all right and if you look at the gold contract so that's the I shares transportation average went to a peak e in the 276 area whoosh down to 244 just alone today's down 2.7 percent down 7 points at 244 that to me is serious stuff and now I'm going to just go to a couple of other things and then I'll go to what I wanted to talk about was IYT and I was about to do something and uh yes gold so gold right now is uh it's up 4 at 1931 and this the reverse this is the h pattern that is going to a lowercase m pattern huge move spiral up and an eiffel tower straight up straight down pattern looks like an uppercase a 2078 that was the um august the eighth sorry march the eighth high and plummets down to the 1890 94ish area and now it's just bouncing and it's just stuck in this range high level in this case it's a low level consolidation considering where it came from but I'm really looking at the weekly chart and these rectangle formations and it's just amazing how it works the rectangle formation that goes for a long time it's so powerful that when the price eventually spikes above it there's a pullback we saw that in LAC which we had only just a small portion um this is uh where were we this is LAC is lithium america america's corporate corporation trading at 33 27 down a dollar 36 it went to our our big deal that we were looking for and yesterday's reversal was really sharp and look what happened you got your cup formation double top 41 56 back in uh december the week and the third of 2021 at 41 56 drops sharply down to 22 78 january 28th and then screams back up three days ago it hits what 40.39 it is incredible how many times we've seen these double top patterns in the cup formation pullback very sharply uh question came in just a moment ago i'll get to it i think it's very appropriate exxon mobile uh yep it's a nice session today but it made that pd remember fourth highest pd in the chapter wave got to be careful and what happened is at 91 70 was it at 91 51 on the 8th of march it tumbles down this is the eiffel pattern eiffel pattern this is the uppercase a and it comes down and it hits about the 75 76 area and the rally is nicely and now it too is stuck in a range so this is saying to me if you look at crude oil making the automation that during the h-pad i think all these commodities are in a very big digestive phase and that's going to be pretty important i'll be back in a moment we want to look at um uh tear spray the pd and his pulling back question about the rectangle you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding 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trading down 279 at 410.92 i must say that subscribers be along uh the uh here uh so this is really important because it hit 437.98 in leg d that it made it peak d with a gap down that was been all the commodity suddenly had a little bit of a uh a woozy session and then it made a trough a trough be announced in a leg c to the downside i'm watching it closely because the patent that i've been looking at for so long for a year and a half where sideways rectangle moves mean especially at highs that if it breaks to the upside there's just a really good chance that it could come back into the rectangle i'm watching this closely because dear has to do with the reality of what's going on right now and with tractors and and really mostly if we can think of it as a very much agricultural phenomenon right now uh farm equipment that sort of thing and with what's going on in the ukraine the bread basket of the world or at least the bread basket of many many countries uh what we're looking at is dear maybe it's supply problems maybe it's something else really watching this closely because if at any point dear fills in the gap um then that is the gap from the low of the 28th of march low of 427.36 and the next day's high of 409 so that 424.49 if it fills that in at any point in the next week or two that's going to suggest that it's in play very much in playing that it should not just retest the 437 level it could go to the 442 if on the other hand it closes any day in the next week under 400 let's call it 398 that just says you know what back into the range again and it's nothing nothing to see here folks so this is for me an important thing catapult on the other hand is more united states catapulted heavy-duty equipment that's more infrastructure etc so i think it's a different it has a little bit of a different chart pattern and there's a different implication question came in again about maus mrs and i'd said uh maus is in his trading band is holding very nicely the key is going to be um now what was the question that you were in it should you take a little bit off and now i can't recall exactly trying to go and make that leg d in the week oh oh that's right you had said the question in the general was would it make the leg d in the weekly chart and my answer was yes maus a company phosphates fertilizers i know what i'd said is this is in the sweet spot of what we're looking at now as i said the bread basket of many countries around it that's in ukraine and fertilizers i think it's really imperative to keep an eye on so this is going to leg d this is a brand new leg d in the dating chart let me type that in leg d now the the the whole thing about this v shape pattern is that in the rectangle the formula that i have is that within a shorter time frame let's just see if we've got that right here this should be if the stair step moves to the upside and hasn't taken out the load within two or three bars then you can have a stair step move that takes you to peak a peak b peak c and then a peak d just under right on or just above the previous high previous high in maus mosaic was back in march march the 25th at 71 50 and the 120 minute chart made a peak a the peak b a peak c pulls back pulls back and they go to d e and f it's in leg f right now with a high of 72 16 so this is interesting this is only this is a leg d and the overall buy and this is something chart formations tend to for me i don't go looking for the pattern i let the pattern look look at me and say hey i've done this eight times out of 10 or seven times out of 10 don't you think i'm worth following in greater detail and this is the pattern that i'm looking at when very quickly there's a sharp pullback from say a peak d and then there's a series of legs and a cup formation that tries to tackle the previous high and then decisively takes it out it's very hard sometimes out of all the chap and wave notations the one thing that i've always found difficulty with although i've been able to identify it many times over the last year and a half but it took a lot of time a lot of effort i would normally have to go back and say oh that was a an up arrow it didn't look like it at the time but this is absolutely the start of a new move and that's the low that was formed in mosaic on the 9th of august of march at 5290 that becomes pk that is e f you can go alphabetically but that's f slash c because the magninian stochastic is still very strong finally got your d so that is the up arrow and now we've gotten where to just above the previous high of 70 150 today's highest 72 16 and we're going to be watching it it avoided i always put the type two patterns in because they're fighting patterns one is the arch and the other is the v shape pattern now we're going to see because mosaic fabulous action price wise the technicals the mag d is is weak it's trying to rally stochastic's weak at 72 on balance volume daddy is really strong but it's the nine period which just it didn't even notice the dip the nine stayed way above the 14 that is fantastic action and this leg d says all right now you're going to be watching because of the rule of thumb the left side you've taken it out by a fraction how does it act in the next two days leg d finally in the weekly leg d in the monthly and if you're looking at the same thing i was talking about before the left side right side price time match going from the 89 74 high of the february 2011 plummets down to six dollars and 50 cents in march 2020 what's the high so far 72 16 so that's only taking you to the lower resistance level that i did this price time match which is why this is the week in fact right there leg d is occurring in this very week and that was 74 31 and we're only at 72 16 we just just on over no yeah a little over two points below that right now but if that's taken out 89 74 will be the bigger move for the mosaic company based on the monthly chart once upon a time in september 2008 it 163.23 so i just wanted to show you some of the things that are really important in this particular phase i'll be talking about it in my webinar coming up wednesday week that's today week today week time flies the the 13th and most importantly do these commodities stay elevated does the xle stay elevated that is the s&p select energy spider fund but it's in the large rectangle it's come from 80.22 on the 8th of august down to the low around about the 13th or 14th of march and then this goes peak a peak b and now it's got a little mini peak a peak b underneath that and basically this looks the pattern that says i'm just in a range i'm stuck for a moment i haven't broken out and i my weekly chart is still very very strong so castigate 88 percent bank is still very strong nine way above the 14 and the monthly chart is the same thing the energy is in play and it's to be in play for a good while okay i'll be back in a moment bowser chapter goes down to 46 see you in a moment are you in the market for 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s and p biotech three times bull and bear etfs visit direction investments dot com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at eight six six four seven six seven five two three the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services llc don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv i was i was asked about the splv in besco sp500 low volatility pdf it's up 29 cents today it's up 43 a point 43 percent at 67 81 holding really nice after making a peke so i was asked about this some time ago i i completely forgot to follow it this is um really what a nice vehicle let me just do this that's a p a b c did make a d back in december i believe it was and i did pull back very sharply and it went from a 68.86 down to a low of weaker 24 for fab 61 12 and now it's trading up with yesterday it hit 68 68 17 wow this is a really nice vehicle coated nice nice good eye well i can say yeah this is holding very well um what'll be really important is if all week it does not take out the low of the fourth of april 66.91 which is only a dollar less than a dollar lower than where we are but in fact it closes any any time between now and friday above 68 17 the high of yesterday that'll suggest there's a good chance that over a period of a couple of weeks it's going to retest that high that was made on the uh december the weekend december the 31st at 68 86 let me just type that in yeah i like that and um yeah i'm going to keep my eye on this as well because it's already had a huge move from 61 to 67 that's a 10 gain that's a that's really a more it's about 11 gain plus i believe this should be as a dividend as well so i just keep it in mind i'm going to keep it in mind myself let me just write that down in case i forget splv all right here's another one that i want to look at mention in the den was a stock that periodically i would look at um why because uh the this is b t ai i don't even know what they do i do know it's a biotech bioxl therapeutics ink biotech area one of the things is i thought we've got a couple of people in the den not a couple a lot of people that know a particular sector very well or stocks very well and dan often talks about the biotechs and this is one of those that he's been following and i thought i just keep it on my on my list here because um the thing about the chapter weight methodology is that even though when you're talking about biotechs anything can happen at any point they could be absolutely dormant doing nothing for weeks and then suddenly you got news about an fda level two or level three whatever it is tests are coming up and the stock is just doing you know it's like those dogs um uh i my mother-in-law had this dog years ago she was it was a little white one little some some sort of called it bingo and um it would just lie there do nothing nothing for hours and then suddenly it would just it would jump up scare the den i said everybody and run up and down the passage along passage which was this parquet and it would slip and slide it would go right into the door and then turn around you know how swimmers when they're doing the race and they flip over i was never able to master that and and reverse course this is what the dog did except it had to hit the door to do it well this is the same thing with biotechs nothing nothing nothing that all of a sudden kabob so i did this work it did a peak e back in november of 2021 i came tumbling down from the 36th area to 14.32 and then the fascination with me was the pattern i keep talking about which is the dreaded h if a successful h and retest this way it made a 14.32 low in january of this year bta i this is simple it goes to a peak b pulls back goes to peak c minus because it pulls back and oh that's still a c and then it goes to 14.44 and that was in march about the 14th of 15th and then it rallies up to peak e so this is very interesting because this is exactly in that same biotech area where nothing nothing nothing look just hanging around in the 15th and then whoosh it goes up to the 23s and and then four points down from 23 i mean that's a huge decline right four points down in a few days and today it has a low of 18.96 and i have 21.84 i don't know if there was any news anything like that but this is just typical of of some kind of a biotech stock it made that peak d what are we always looking for made a peak d in the weekly back in november and then made a peak d in the monthly and that was a high back in 2020 i believe it was that was 2020 in the 70 area 70 this is july of 2020 it goes to 71.50 i mean really down to 14 and now it's trying to come back so i just wanted to mention so the question came up about the chaplain wave and it was more a statement than anything else someone who's followed followed me for years and years and years hi basal seems crystal clear to me now the chaplain wave is a momentum driven technical tool that relies on a common foundation of economic policies in order to achieve a complete by mode letter designation a through g so number one is um you're absolutely correct it's a momentum base i essentially grade each successively higher peak yes and troughs i use the peaks on the upside a lot more than the troughs on the downside because the troughs on the downside for some reason the technical tools that are used like the mac d and stochastic give really good uh um look at this look at the way the on balance volume look at this low right here bam does that coincide or does that coincide with the most recent low in bta i and that's the low of 14.44 on the 15th of march and look at the on balance volume turn around stochastic within a day within two days it's turning around so yes i use momentum but i have to make it first before i go on absolutely the notation is built on higher highs and lower lows therefore it is an oscillation and it's based because it's moving from a zero line to a higher line or a zero and down i don't know where the zero line would be but i'm just saying because it can go up and down it can never go below zero itself the actual price that i'm following but once it's on its way it can oscillate like a sine wave up and down it's momentum base number one number two is the objective is to go from a buy signal upgraded to a buy mode which says there should be at least four higher peaks number one and that's number two number three is in the different time frames look he has the daily time frame doesn't this look really exciting in the daily if you look at the weekly you say oh yeah that's good it's not great it's way below the high that was made back in the 30 in the 30s it got cut in half and now look it's only a 20 and if you look at the month you say good grief that looks like a biotech stock really why it made the double top and then plunged to the downside it looks like it has to restart i'm only using this as an example i have no position in the bta bta ai by excel therapeutics but it came up and i thought i'd follow it because i'd love to see how fundamentals can you help the technicals and also and the oscillation of the fundamentals can come together and really come i'll be back in the month captain once they can go down 250 60 and now sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent 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