 Hello and welcome to the CMC markets Monday market update webinar with myself David Madden market analyst here at CMC markets And today's date is Monday the 5th of March 2018 and the time has just gone 1215 GMT quarter past 12 p.m. UK time Now before we kick off with webinar itself as always we'll be showing the risk warning screen slides on screen So have a quick read through those and it's just keep my clients department very very happy It's all very straightforward it essentially states anything that is covered in today's webinar is merely my own thoughts views opinions and comments And not to be construed as explicit or direct investment or creating advice So while you're reading through the remainder of the risk warning slides I'll have a quick run down of what's going on in the in the financial news over the past 72 hours Essentially the uncertainty on the back of the Italian election is the main driver of the as a main news story of the day at the Italian market as under severe pressure The footsie made whereas we saw selling initially and a bit of pressure initially in the footsie and the in the DAX in the CAC 40 so and so on as a board But but the majority of European markets have bounced back if but the Italian at the Italian market is still under severe pressure That is going on. Also. There is the The talk of a possible trade war is still quite a large issue In relation to Donald Trump's plans to levity import tariffs on aluminium and also on steel So the possibility of a trade war is Still do the rounds. That was a big story of the day on Friday but given we had a Italian election of the weekend and it looks like nothing They've also sort of been counted, but it looks like Italy is set for a hung parliament and Worst of all for for the for the likes of the euro and the European Union itself is at the the five star were five star movement the Eurosceptic anti-establishing party It looks like they are set to actually be the largest party on the back of this election granted It does not appear that they will have enough they will have enough Votes or seats to win an overall majority and former government themselves But nonetheless the tide of your skepticism is rising and a time where whereby Brussels are trying to Unite Europe it would seem that Europe is actually quite divided at the moment And what does essentially means is that if there's discontent in Italy as there is in other countries around the around the Around eurozone it would just mean that the overall euro itself could come under a bit of pressure but if there's no Solid government in Italy with a the clear majority or a clear line on how the country should be run It just means that very different banking reforms and a very different governmental reforms that are much needed in Italy They won't get passed and the one thing investors at the spies. It's uncertainty and The Italian economy hasn't been in great shape recently Unemployment in Italy is above the eurozone is above the eurozone average There's no discontent in Italy and as it's been reflected in the polls over the weekend So that the major news is that the Italian market is under under pressure We also saw some PMIs a service service service figures coming out from the from the eurozone And also the UK this morning long story short of it France and Germany the biggest countries in the eurozone And and Italy itself had Disappointment and figures which are underwhelming they show the growth rate rates were Lower on the month and also the mis-expectations On the flip side that UK actually have quite respectful figures It grew at a faster the service sector in the UK grew at a faster pace on top of that and actually manage to actually beat expectations So what I'll do now after you cover the headlines and a quick run through our economic calendar those of you's You don't know our economic calendar can be found on our platform by taking the market polls fourth option down market calendar I'll have a quick run through of the major economic events of the week And then I'll look at some of the major markets to find out the talk discuss potential levels, which could be of interest So looking ahead to tomorrow Take it's a relatively quiet day in terms of economic indicators the big one to watch out for Overnight if you're trading the Aussie dollar Aussie dollar or this are the ASX 200 is of course Yeah, the interest rate decision in by the the Missouri Bank of Australia Racer anticipated to be kept on hold at 1.5 percent that interest rate the decision will be made at half 3 a.m. UK time Looking ahead to tomorrow afternoon the next big thing to watch out for tomorrow afternoon. It's gonna be you US factory orders This is gonna be of interest seeing as we have some mixed economic indicators of the rest recently We've had super confidence that's been you know quite quite decent But I should retail sales and sure but good to orders haven't been that impressive and ultimately is that the confidence figure can say one thing It's all what one could be confident about the economy But actually are you bought spending money and that's that that's gonna be of importance also factory orders could be a way of gauging what CPI could look like down the line because if if the man in factory level at the factory level is high that could suggest Consumer at the end at the end of the cycle of consumer demand is high also Turning our attention to Wednesday what we have on Wednesday with Australian Growth figures coming out the early hours of Wednesday morning just half past half twelve A.m. UK time at half eight UK time we have UK house prices and at 10 a.m. UK time We have your result GDP I Respecting your zone GDP to claim at 2.7 percent ever so slightly down from the previous rating of 2.8 percent So once again, that's really we have some decent growth of the result in 2017 But it does look as if we are starting to kind of lose a bit of steam As I mentioned the service figures out of a few eurozone countries were a bit of on the slightly cooler side and this This in this forecast ties in with the kind of wider theme of what's going on in the eurozone scrolling down to 115 on Wednesday Wednesday We are expecting the we have the ADP all the figures coming out from the United States ADP comes out a few days ahead of non-front pales We should be talking about in a few minutes. The previous ADP report showed that there were 234,000 jobs added this week. We are expecting 193,000 jobs to be added. So in or around the 200,000 mark is still fairly good Economist suggests the United States needs to be adding it say an average or at least 200,000 jobs every single month to actually kind of continue on with the recovery and to continue down the path of economic growth So even it comes in 193 might be might be Slightly down to the previous month, but they're there about a friend around 200,000 jobs. You so do reasonably well Turning our attention now to what's going on on Thursday We have Chinese trade figures coming up at 3 a.m. UK time The imports and the exports will be closely watched anyone out there trading the Australian Donner or indeed the footsie Because the footsie has a lot of mining companies in this your Glencores, Rio Tinto's, BHP Billitons, so on and so forth They'll be keeping it out for the imports component of the trade figures because China is a major consumer of raw materials And if a persecutory signs that their demand for raw materials is waiting that could be indication that that could put pressure on these Docs and conversely if you have a decent jump in imports, which I suspect this might be easy easy to beat because We were looking for anticipating Imports to rise by 9.7% bearing in mind this time period includes these The lunar new year the Chinese new year and the previous report was an increase of 36.9% So we're expecting Imports to increase by 9.7% which may be on the softs which which may be easy enough to beat Given that some of the other some of the other indicators didn't quite factor in the actual Lunar the time off over the lunar new year At 7 a.m. UK time we have German industrial orders keep an eye for that We're expecting it to from a swing from a family crease of 3.8 to swing to a decline of 2.1% At half at 115 we have Canadian housing services any building permits at half one we have the US job this claims as to do every single Thursday And turning our attention now to Friday We have Chinese CPI and Chinese CPI once again if you're trading the Aussie dollar or if you're trading mining companies We really need to put yourself keep an eye out for that and then it's rolling out on to Half nine UK time we have the UK manufacturing output and UK industrial output At half one This is going to be the big one to watch out for on Friday at half one And we have the non-farm payrolls and on the headline figure respecting it Non-farm payrolls to come in at 200,000 Unchanged for the previous month we're expecting on poverty rate to dip from a 4.1% to 4% And on the average earnings front on a month and a year on your basis We're expecting average earnings to come in at 2.8% down from the previous month's number of 2.9% Bearing the mind. It was this report last last month Which really impressed investors particularly the average earnings component that they jump an average earnings to 2.9% in the previous report is what Which effectively was the trigger for the recent sell-off we saw in global equities particularly late in early in early February I got traders thinking that If these there's going to be a decent rate, there's going to be a decent jump in earnings that could be That could lead the way for a decent increase in spending also at half one what we have out is the Canadian figures Canadian unemployment and also And the various different Canadian jobs data reports coming out at half one on the Friday So what I'll now do is I'll now run through some of the major markets some of the indices some of the commodities and the currency pairs As always if there are any markets, you would like me to cover that. I haven't actually Mentioned please feel free to type in the chat box and do so to take a look now and with the indices what I The the discussion holder on the indices for the major European and also the American markets In the shape of the markets as you'll see the shape of the chart has been broadly similar For a lot of those markets some of a fair better than others, but by and large is similar enough story So what we saw here was the fuzzy 100 The futsy 100 at the beginning of February was making a recovery from the ground loss in Late late January early February was bouncing back it ran out of steam here As you see the market has been turning over on itself And now the market is down near level not really seen since since the middle of February So if you take off this level here, which is in around the lows of the session if you go below say 7,000 and 60 60 odd that could be looking heading back down towards 7,000 itself Or perhaps even testing the the recent low of a 61 19 Most of the upside could run into resistance in around the 70 200 mark But we'd really need to be taken out this high here at 73 40 This this area of resistance here before we can actually become more confident at the markers I should going to continue on that the push higher and if you do take out 73 40 We could be looking heading up to the today moving average at 74 70 44 at this level here But what the indicators that I'd like to look at is the MACD indicator This MACD indicator the MACD histogram which measure which effectively measures momentum And as you can see here as the market was selling off We saw a steady increase in negative momentum So the so the momentum or the pressure was with the sellers and then as we saw a bounce back here We saw a distinct decline in negative momentum And then as she flipped over to positive momentum and as you can see here The market was pushing higher and then we can see the market turning over on a set yet again So as the market was pushing higher Positive momentum is increasing as markets are to fade Positive momentum started to fade and I've actually swung to negative momentum. And what this does is that? in effect to be the The momentum confirms the price moves So as you can see here as the markets pushing lower and we can see an increase in negative momentum So it's with those two diverge That's when you get worried if you see if you see a market pushing higher high You know pushing to higher highs or multi-week highs multi-month highs and momentum is going the opposite direction Or if positive momentum was fading that isn't that is a possible sign We could be looking at a turnaround but for the time being what we're seeing here is that the momentum is confirmed It's confirmed with the move we're seeing in the actual market itself. I take a look now at what's going on in Germany So as you can see in Germany It's even worse data affairs where by the German market had a decent rebound It was pushing out and ran out of steam in around the 12,600 level had a quite an aggressive sell-off since then and it looks now That we're not too far away from the February low, which comes into play at 11,692 So if we take out that level that we could be looking at heading back down towards 11,600 or indeed 11,500 So as you can see here, we're not too far away from the February lows on the on the Germany 30 Moves to the upside work with potentially look to run run into resistance to commit up to under resistance in around this area You hear a lot of consolidation in around twelve thousand four hundred But once again, we really need to take out the late February high of say twelve thousand six hundred before we become more confident that the rebound The which began about a month ago is still in play and if you move north of that We could be looking heading back towards the turning moving average at twelve twelve thousand seven hundred and forty one I'll have a look at the Italian market thing is that that's you that's actually in the news today. Give what's going on With the Italian elections and the uncertainty around that. I was interesting about this market here Is that it did manage to have a recovery here? I was pushing higher, but I could see as it vanted to some resistance in round the fifth day moving average in around 22,840 on a number of occasions it couldn't quite get above the fifth the fifth of the moving average Marks are down the line the fifth of the moving average could prove to be another area of Resistance or indeed supportive the market takes it out But as you can see we saw a steady sell-off in the last few sessions and in fact today's low here It managed to actually take out the February low and also the low from January So we are talking at levels not seen since August 2017 that the low of the day has been seen on the on the on the the Mib since August 2017 So I get an indicator of just how bearish investors are surrounded us So if you do continue to push lower from here, it could be a looking head back down towards twenty one thousand three hundred and thirty three This area here Did manage to act as a bit of it on a few occasions manage your act as a support So I'd like you to do so again in the future or the possibility of it at least and if you go below that level We could really get back down towards twenty one thousand itself Big it's like about your number, but if you do manage to bounce back from here Areas to keep an eye on keep an eye on the upside Will be this price area here the low from mid February and also coinciding a high high from a couple sessions ago In around the twenty two thousand seven hundred twenty two thousand two hundred and seventy area this area here And if you go north of that, we really want to see a break Decisive move or a decent move north of the fifth of the moving average at twenty two thousand eight hundred and forty Before we can actually become more confident that the this that this recent negative move has come to an end The American markets take a little a thousand a second now The shape of the American markets and chart is that to the similar that to the ones we just saw in Europe But the American market asset at better recovery, but given that what's going on in relation to the Trump tariffs They have they have a succumb to some setting pressure recently as well So take a look at the American markets. It was make a decent recovery on Dow Jones here it recovered Recovered quite a bit of the ground it lost due to the sell-off in early in early February But as you can see here, we work the markets were already in decline for a couple sessions last Wednesday and Thursday And then of course the announcement about the Trump tariffs Really is really put pressure on the actual Dow Jones itself. So the markets moving lower There's a clear swing from positive to negative momentum. So it's possible that this negative mood on the Dow Jones could continue We're not back south of the one of a moving average which comes into play basically in around these levels here I'll say twenty four thousand five hundred five if you remain south of that, we could really head back down towards The reason that the recent lows in around this area here over on 23,250 this area in around here could be targeted South of that we could really head back down towards the tourney moving average at 23,160 so there that I was keeping up for on the downside Move to the upside could potentially run into resistance at the 50 moving average of twenty five thousand three hundred five And if you go north of that the next day to keep an eye out for would be the late February high of twenty five thousand eight hundred and twenty one notice how There's a lot of consolidation in around the 50 moving average in for the second half of February so if it has previous recent history of Acting as a zed or support and over resistance which has which has on a few occasions in around here It's likely to do it again or more likely to do it again in the future. Obviously, they're no guarantees But it just means that it's just it's that much more likely for it to happen Take a look now. I was going on on the S&P 500 Like I said any markets you'd like me to cover please feel free to type in the chat box and I happily work happily work on those Similar dealing here or by the mark was making steady recovery as we approach the end of February Markets are to turn over on itself And then of course the Trump tariffs really put pressure on the market Well, the difference is the S&P traded south of it to if it's if the one-day moving average But we have managed to be gained onto that again. So while this could be a bit of a attention turning point while we were mean above the recent low of 2,649 below here from Friday We could potentially look to move higher from here But if you do manage to break south of the 2,649 area, we could be head back down towards 2,600 or possibly down towards 2,568 itself And I moved south of that could then target target the February lows of 25,000 2,532 Move to the upside on the S&P 500 could run the resistance in around the fifth of the moving average Which comes to play in around the 2,742 mark and if you go north of that Could be looking towards the late February high of 2,789 and then of course if you go beyond that it could be looking towards 2,800 and if you take our 2,800 it's a good chance. You can retest the 2018 highs I'll take a look now what's going on in the gold market So the gold market was interesting one Gold here in the latter half of February was coming under pressure at the US dollar was grinding higher trade at the top of possibility or Perhaps for interest rate hikes in the Fed Reserve in 2018 is a Fed meeting in the middle of March That's going to be on the horizon So the theme was for the second half of February was pushing lower And in fact gold managed to actually drop to a two-month low on the on Thursday the first of March last Thursday But of course as you saw what we as as what we saw with the Trump tariffs Traders turned around the announcement of the of the of the Trump tariffs But I put tremendous pressure on the US dollar which which in turn had the price of gold on top of that Trump tariffs Triggered a selling of equity so traders Also bought into gold on the back of the flight quality effect So gold benefit above the soft US dollar because of the Trump tariffs and also benefit because of the poor the exodus from equities Because of also the Trump tariff so gold has been has been pushing higher It's tested the fifthly moving average on a couple of occasions We're not too far away from the moment the 15th moving average comes into play in on the 1326 area If you have a decent break note of that if you go north of 1330 We could be looking at a test in the late February high of 1340 and then if you go beyond that We could be looking heading back up towards the 2018 high of 1366 move the downside if you take out 13 or two the recent low And also if you take out 1300 big psychological number We could be looking heading back down towards the 30 moving average at 1287 and we go south of 1287 We could be looking at head back down towards this area here of 1270 Take a look now. What's going on in the oil market? So the big picture for the oil market has been since last June. I've been very much an upward trend working You're a Brent oil we can see as a classic example of an upward trend higher highs and higher lows over the Vassay Seven months or so But the interesting developments have happened recently in the last few weeks United of America has Be gone to actually produce record levels of oil It's a bit of a it's a bit of a catch when you to for OPEC because OPEC Obviously have the production cut in place up to the end of 2018 Is even talk that being extended How an OPEC? curtail production deliberately to drive up the price the reaction by shale producers and producers in the United States was to actually increase Increase supply. So you got OPEC on one hand Trimming coming back and supply give the Americans increase the supply and now increasing at record levels So looking at this so it's an interesting point in the and we could be out We could be near a turning point after the price of oil. So obviously it's a solid upper trend For about six or seven months Even the pullback that we saw here still has really negated the positive upper trend We have managed to bounce higher here and now whether we actually managed to hold above the recent lows The February lows of inner region of around a 60 to 40 if you can hold up of these loads It's likely we could look to retest the late February high of 67 95 93 94 and if you go beyond that we could look ahead towards 70 and then 70 potential towards 70 to 74 now the question I'm wondering is are we at a point where buy the market has sold off? It's rebounded it's having a pullback and we were another potential Area for potentially heading up towards 70 to 74 or is the market has the market bounce But is this beginning of the lower low? Is this the first lower high and that's that's why I mentioned about if you can hold above this area Because if you have a decisive break south of this area here That would be a second lower low and that could be a sign the markets actually turning over on itself so I think If we remain North of this of the of the February lows of in around the kind of 62 dollars area It's likely that we could be that the wider upper trend could continue But if you take out 62 that could be a sign that we're actually heading for a bit more profit taken because likes of United States are actually producing oil at record levels, and I feel people go south of 72 Sorry six 62 it could take us back down towards 60 dollars at barrels keep an eye out for that So as I said, we're potentially near what could be an important level for oil It's going to be a fairly similar shape shaped chart for WTI. Have a quick look at that So similar data again worth of the TI if you could hold above the recent lows The recent the recent lows of say 60 dollars and 18 cents as you can see here WTI is already held above that so if you could hold above say if you could hold above Say, you know the kind of 60 dollars or 59 73 It's likely that we could be looking at retesting the kind of 64 area and then beyond that up towards 67 potentially But if you move so even if you move south of 59 73 as long as we hold north of this great this price here 50 at 10 I think I think the outlook for WTI could be positive a decent break south of 50 That's we could be looking head back down towards 55 72 or back to 54 76 itself Take a look at a few currency pairs. Are there any markets? You're likely to cover feel please feel free to say so and I've quick look at them I'll do a few currency pairs, and then we've been looking to wrap things up So the euro dollar has been a solid upper trend versus the for quite some quite some time now We haven't even though we have seen a bit of a pullback in the euro in Of it since since 2018 begun by and large is still the it's in its it's in the software trend So take a look here at the price action if you do move to the south We could be looking finance support in around the 122 area and if he holds north of the the recent low of 121 54 this which is this this price here from last Thursday We could be looking to actually continue on the wider upper trend look at the target say 124 and then beyond that the other recent highs Oh, but 124 50 120 125 54 a move south of this price here You could bring us back down towards 120 92 and then move south of that could potentially put 120 on the radar Take a look at what's going on the pound versus the US dollar So the big picture over the last 10 months is that pound has been a solid upward trend versus the US dollar granted we have seen Some uncertainty we've been brought in the pound in relation to in relation to brexit talks But recently the pound has been aging higher given what's going on at the US dollar related to what's going on with the president Trump's tariffs so it's Why we remain north of this trend line here, which is the trend I connected the lows of last March with the look with the lows With us with with loads of August and through the lows of November Why we remain north of the trend line the outlook is likely to is likely to remain positive for the British pound versus the US dollar So if we were at the moment, we've been eyeing up the fifthly moving average if you go north fifthly moving average at 138 38 we could be heading back up towards the 140 area and then north of that up towards 140 150 Moves it down side may find some support in around the 136 59 area or even down towards the actual Fed nine itself which would come into play in around kind of 136 area itself And so if you break south of 136 could then actually look to get worried and potentially We could be looking for a bit of a further sell-off in the pound versus the US dollar Take a look now. What's going on in the euro versus the British pound euro sterling So euro sterling has been relatively range bound for a number of weeks And they're at this area here from zero spot 89 29 down to zero spot 86 89 The low end has been the range of the last number of the last number of weeks Basically kind of since basically kind of I can early December up until now We're racing as you can see here We had a couple of decent break moves north of the higher end the range at zero spot 8 9 2 9 Which is this high here. So if we continue to remain north of that level The 2018 high we could be looking at Eric heading up towards a zero spot Zero spot 90 and if you go north of that, we could be heading up towards zero spot 90 49 Move to the downside might find some support in round is zero spot 89 area Or perhaps at the charity moving average at zero spot 88 57 And it's only if you head south of the late February low of zero spot 77 71 who are looking heading back down towards the lower end of the range at zero spot 86 89 I take a look now look now at the US dollar versus the Japanese yen and I look for machine wrap wrap things up. So since November Dollar the end has been in a fairly obvious downward trend the class example of lower lows lower high We saw a bit of consolidation in December and But in January then a continuation of the lower low lower high lower low lower high lower low lower high lower low So the level we dropped down to on Friday was 11 not see first for some for some months It's just giving an indication Just how bearish traders are actually on the dollar versus the Japanese yen so it's 11 not seen since November 2016 so the big picture is to the downside So if you continue to push it around low from here, we could be looking at targeting 105 heading out towards 104 If you do see a bounce back as you often do whenever it is an intense setting pressure We could be looking at running into resistance in around the kind of 107 area or perhaps even up towards the kind of one-way It's region, but I guess said we're at we're at levels not seen Since the back end of 2016 and it's been a solid downward trend over the last number of months Well, I'll quickly do is show you a few things things on our platform What we want what that what's updated every single day is the market insight and the chart forum Market it's like can be found under the market market pulse tab second option down Some of the updates that we do in terms of the of the news and analysis that we write it gets uploaded to the market inside section We also do things like this here the data alert whereby we It is important economic releases that are announced during the day. That'll be updated shortly after the number comes out It's also a place where you can find things like say the advertisement for this webinar This this this webinar is being recorded and I will post it on Market insights on the inside section in about one hour's time Also, I Also gets updated regularly throughout the day is also the chart forum that actually It's not just employees of CMC. It's also customers of CMC can contribute to the chart forum It is it's an area whereby people can actually just Upload a particular chart. So I did an analysis on the Japan to do five the Nica to do five Most recently and it's basically a snapshot of the chart that I used and also a quick few a few hundred words And what's going on in terms of the price action and potential areas prices of interest Also keep an eye out for if you go to our website I've been under the news and analysis section what you can do is you can find out throughout the day the News analysis section gets updated with very different articles We write some of the articles get posted to the actual website under news analysis Something opposed to two insights, which I just shown you so this is our mid-morning update Which which I did at 1045 and pretty previously that Michael Houston did an update just before six in the morning Lastly I'll talk about webinars So in the same place where you found where you found the sign up area for this webinar You know, there's also other webinars that I suggest that you sign up too So today on Monday the 5th of March 2018 at 1900 hours GMT, so 7 p.m. UK time There is a trader development program part one the foundations of technical analysis That's what that's we're tuning into on Wednesday the 7th of March and half 7 p.m. UK time We have the business this webinar title the busy traders toolbox and on Friday The 9th of March at 115. We'll have the non-farm payrolls live live coverage Talking about what to expect going into the numbers Take a look at the numbers themselves and of course a reaction to the numbers and potential what markets may or may not Be moved on the back of the figures depending what they are Well, that's all for me this week. I do want to thank you on behalf of all of us here at CMC markets Have a good trading week and good luck