 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody? Welcome into covering the spread. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire Dot com where today we are getting you set for UFC 251 at fight island by talking with Megan Nunez to break down her favorite bets for fight island this weekend My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com joined here As always by Ed Fang you can find his work over at the power ink dot com Ed fight island coming up this weekend How you doing? I'm doing good. I bet it's gonna be pretty hot out there in the desert. Hey, I like I can't imagine It's it's I hate he it's done like 90 degrees here in Syracuse the past week Yeah, and like I live in the department. We don't have central air. We have like window units. They can't keep up It's terrible. I hate it. I hate everything Yeah, it's been in the mid 90s here, too, and every day I mean, I I can only run about mid morning and every day like it's higher and higher in the 80s when I go out So hopefully it's gonna cool off pretty here pretty soon. I think tomorrow I think I would be running at like midnight if I don't run because I that'd be terrible But like if I were to run kudos to you for still doing it But if I were to it would have to be like Whatever the coldest moment of the day was because I would like I bike on our exercise bike in our apartment That makes me so sweaty that I gained like 16 pounds in sweat I know the sweat's leaving me that doesn't work conversion wise, but like it's drenched. I can't imagine running in that Yeah, well, I mean I can legitimately lose five pounds of water right in right right now But yeah, I kind of need to do it Otherwise, I'd be so unhappy that I would just come on the show and curse you out and we have the intro So honestly, that'd be pretty fun. I'm not opposed. Maybe we can work on that and One thing that could lead to that is changes in the college football schedule because the Ivy League Sounds like they are trending towards pushing back their season until the spring, which is something Ed you brought up in like March about how college football might be played in the spring and I don't think it's been officially announced yet, but it sounds like that's the way it's trending We talked about it then But I kind of don't hate the idea of having a college football player is not being exposed to a deadly virus when there's no vaccine But also be having football if the NFL plays in September through like April like that kind of sounds better to me I don't know Yeah, I don't know if we're actually allowed to say it But I think we did talk about the nine straight months of football. Yeah, NFL kicks off September 10th Goes to the Super Bowl next week college football kicks off. Yeah, and you know, we're all so busy during football season You know, we're doing two shows a week getting people ready for college football on the NFL You know, we probably scale that back to one show a week You know, maybe it may be a second one every once in a while to do another sport I often don't watch as much NFL as I would like so I can spend some time with my family and you know Would be able to do that a little bit more. I think what's really interesting about this Ivy League situation is that It just shows you the difference between the NFL college football, right? University presidents will Strongly consider what the Ivy League's doing because it's their colleagues, you know the presidents of those universities that that are making this decision and there's just you know there's so many people that have the power to push college football off to the spring and Given the state of our country right now, like I mean, I think that's definitely the prudent thing to do Right you give yourself. I don't know a decent chance that there's a vaccine by the end of the year I certainly wouldn't count on it and I don't think it's anywhere near a hundred percent But you give yourself a chance and I think that would make all parties a lot happier especially about the safety of playing the game because You know the game The game is gonna spread the disease I mean that I don't think there's anywhere around that right and like what intrinsic value is there in playing College football in the fall versus the spring like what what do you gain by having it earlier? You gain revenue five months earlier. I mean, that's true. Like that's right. You're right So, you know, I mean a lot of these athletic departments might need a loan of X million dollars to So to hold it over. So that I mean there's for sure. There's that I Don't know. I mean you get the mental health of the fans that want to see college football sure happened in the fall I mean, there are reasons why they want to do it in the fall and I understand that, you know These conference commissioners were saying that spring is like our last option but I mean Unfortunately, it's a good option and I think though I think I really like the the ratings bump. They're gonna get in the spring. Oh my good Well, yeah, so you mentioned you don't get to watch as much NFL I don't get to watch as much college because like I have to work all day Sunday And it would be terrible of me to like ignore my fiance for entire weeks at a time Because I want to watch college football Saturday at the NFL on Sunday I have to have a day where I could be like free or else. I'm just being a bad partner So like honestly if they could push college football back to February or whatever, I'm all in I think that sounds optimal to me, especially because it like Safeguards these athletes and these coaches from an infectious disease that can have long lasting ramifications So I don't see a downside personally. I think I think what the Ivy League is doing I hope it catches on because Let's get that vaccine before we put these unpaid athletes out there in danger, essentially Yeah Absolutely. Well, we're gonna talk Some more sports that are still going on right now and just with Megan Nunez You can follow Megan on Twitter at Megan making money She is now doing weekly videos for FanDuel sportsbook Those go up on her Twitter page and the FanDuel YouTube page So make sure you follow Megan on Twitter at Megan making money and subscribe to the FanDuel YouTube page today We're talking USC 251 we're gonna talk about her getting into horse racing because a lot of us have picked up new sports for betting during the pandemic and Think she has an interesting process in how you get into those sports We're gonna talk with Megan about that in just one second quick first of a quick a reminder I guess not a reminder, but a quick announcement. We're not gonna have a show next week I am out all of next week Ed is also going. You think you're going on vacation, right? I Hope you're going on vacation. I hope you're going on vacation. That's the plan Yeah, I mean we'll see Everything's moving target at this point, but I will be out next week. So no show next week We're gonna come back the week after that with Dan Zimborski fangrafts.com easy creator of zips, which is a tremendous like projection system. We're talking about How much variance actually increases in a 60 game season something looking forward to that To preview MLB opening day But to make sure you get that podcast when that goes up Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are an apple podcast spotify stitcher the google play store iheart radio you name you can find this there Please subscribe rate interview the podcast And again no show next week back at it the week after that with Dan Zimborski to preview major league baseball Before we talk to megan though, we do want to go back to last week Had a couple of bets for nascar indianapolis got kind of close on one and almost got over the edge there Covering the past All right, so last week here on the show We were talking some nascar once again getting you set for the brickyard 400 or the big machine hand sanitizer for wanted in indianapolis and And then she said like ryan blaney at 11 to 1 and eric almirola at 42 to 1 Blaney was 11 to 1 and closed there almirola closed at 31 to 1 So good amount of value in almirola Blaney started the race in 12th and he was up to sixth on the opening run And then the poo hit the fan In his first pit stop there was he was in his his pit stall There was a giant pile up on pit road and one of his crew members like got pinned against his car It was like frightening to watch he's apparently okay But like frightening to see and it damaged blaney's car So he has to pit for an extended amount of time goes all the way to back to the back I'm like Dead set watching his his lap time seeing if he's fast enough to gain that ground He's working his way forward back into the top 10 And then he wrecks so ryan blaney finished 30th not great Almirola though was better He started that race in fifth and he was running really well early in that race But then he had a vibration he had to pit and he set himself back He was running back in 15th for a while Eventually clawed his way back and almirola was restarting in third position Which is two laps left. So he had a chance there. He's right behind his teammate kevin harvick But uh harvick got the better push on the outside lane. He pulled away on the restart So almirola finished third. I think that's pretty good for someone who uh was 42 one of uh 42 to one at the time That's his fifth straight top five finish, but couldn't quite pull it out. Uh, so Almirola almost came through couldn't quite get it But I still feel pretty good with the process behind that bet And we did not talk about south empton last week here on the podcast But we did talk about them two weeks ago and the general thought process for you was They're undervalued based on a lot the numbers you have over at the power rank and we didn't discuss them last week But then they went out and beat man city So you got to feel pretty good about that Or more confused than ever So the numbers have had uh definitely have Said south hampton has value and it certainly said that against man city as well The other thing like I didn't bet that because yeah, I feel like my system has a really well Expected goals adjusted for string to schedule I don't think captures how good the best teams are So if you just look at the markets like you know, the man city was way in excess of what my number said another example was, you know, like byron munich played liver coos in in the in the final of the german cup And my prediction wasn't as high on byron as the markets were so so you kind of consistently see that I think like the best teams in the world the man cities The byron munichs of the world, I just I just don't think the numbers quite capture how good they are I you I think you would need some market input to figure out exactly how good they are compared to everyone else um, you know south hampton one one one the match one zero, uh, they also Got swamped in terms of expected goals like man city was almost three and south hampton was point eight So obviously a little bit of luck in that result, but you know, these kinds of things are going to happen So, um, I still think going forward, uh south hampton is going to have value You can definitely go check out my predictions at thepowerrank.com slash predictions They're up now for all the midweek matches But I think for me as a data guy still trying to figure out exactly how to Evaluate those top teams and is that true for all sports or is this specific to sports that use expected goals? No, I mean My system has some similar problems in college football like it doesn't quite capture how Good albam and clumson are compared to everyone else. Um, I think part of the reason there is turnovers Because when you have lopsided games the turnover margin just tends to skew in favor of Um, the team that is dominant Yeah, and that's that leads to some of the margins Um, but yeah, so still something I'm trying to figure out, uh, and uh, yeah, I'll let you know Hopefully what I do But hey, we can just shock this up as a south hampton win and we're gonna feel good about it We'll ignore the expected goals in the game itself You know, we're gonna count that result. Yeah, we're not we're not gonna ignore it But but also like I mean, I am you you you don't have to ignore it. I will personally because I want to feel good for you Yeah, I mean we I had If you remember like I had a big dog in munchin gladbach against by urnick that didn't work out But the expected goals was much less than it was in in this one. I mean I think that one was like on a late goal too, wasn't it? Yeah. Yeah Yeah, and by urnick was definitely the better team But you can certainly get these cases where a team dominates And still lose Let's make sure you check out ed's numbers over at the powerink.com before we dive into our discussion about usc 251 of the Megan Nunez Fandall sportsbook is giving you a chance to bet uh to get in on the action risk-free Create a fandall sportsbook account today and place your first bet if you lose Fandall will give you a refund up to 500 dollars in psych credit It is that easy for more details. Is it sportsbook dot fandall dot com offer valid for new users only Must be 21 years old gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Let's bring on Megan Nunez now. Uh, she is on twitter at Megan making money making some videos for fandall sportsbook And the fandall youtube page make sure you subscribe to that and follow Megan on twitter We're gonna break down usc 251 fight island and talk some horse racing too Covering the present Let's welcome Megan Nunez into covering the spread to break down fight island and usc 251 Megan I appreciate you making the time to come on here today. How you doing? I'm doing great. I appreciate y'all having me. Absolutely. I'm excited to break this down because Fight island is pretty wild. It's a another product we have of the covid 19 world We're living in but just for you personally like how have things been the past couple of months like how you've been You know holding up I guess in a very strange time in our world I mean it's been crazy, especially, you know as we talked about me being home with the kids and trying to juggle Two different completely different tasks Between mom and you know making picks and putting out decent bets So things have it's been pretty crazy. I mean the whole mask and sanitize and Staying home definitely been doing a lot of that I've escaped once or twice But they were at like air bnb's where like I just doused everything down and it was like we didn't go anywhere brought our own food Um, but you know, I can't complain. I'm healthy and my family's healthy and I'm here. So no complaints We had a Twitter feed. Uh, you've definitely inspired me to grab a basketball and a bottle of beer Uh for the for the Megan stunt. So uh, so I see you've been teaching yourself tricks like that as well Yeah, um, I might have stolen that one from like a tick tock or something But I just I uh, I liked I like to kind of see what I can do and what I can't do and Right now is the time to kind of figure out those weird things. You know, uh, so that one I was super confident I don't have with barefooted like I was I was ready to go. I was fully committed. I was going to catch it no matter what Um, and if I didn't catch it it was going to be a great fail and I was posting it either way. So it didn't matter Okay, I like the transparency. That's perfect and uh, picking up new hobbies I think something that a lot of us have done in the past couple months and that can relate to betting too because There were no regular sports going on for a pretty long time So did you pick up any new sports to bet on to fill that gap? Or did you try to stay patient until the sports you're stronger in pick back up? Well, I tried to be patient. I like dabbled in a little KBO until I realized it was just a complete mess And then I've always really wanted to start Getting into horse betting and I have a lot of respect for the people that do it because it's a lot of work It takes a lot of time. It's definitely a certain skill set and I've been working towards that You know, so I've I've been kind of getting into a track here in there. I'm not playing everywhere I usually pick one or two tracks and stay there and try to learn about it and So, yeah, horse racing is probably the only thing that I've picked up and occasionally tail a You know boondestliga play here and there or even, you know, a good KBO play Have a guy that's been hitting a ton of unders as of recently and been tailing him. So he's been great And are you thinking you'll keep the horse racing going once baseball and basketball and stuff start to come back? I mean, I feel like I will probably won't be as big especially if I get football and my sec football back and But I love the horses like they have been so much fun It's like completely scratched the edge of wanting to have action because literally like you can put whether it's 50 cents to $100 you can put it down you wait for your race. It's over in like A minute and you're like you're your blood's pumping. You're excited. You're screaming and then I mean literally one bet like that could hold you over all day It's it's great. So, yes, they will probably stay in my handicapping, you know repertoire Megan let's get into the UFC card. It's an interesting one because it's on fight island in Abu Dhabi So is there anything about this location that makes you want to bet it more or maybe want to bet it less? Tell us about what you're thinking in terms of location Well, I'm always a little hesitant with betting UFC because I mean you could have a huge like juice favorite go in there And they make the wrong move, you know, and they're done, you know And all of a sudden you you've paid a ton of juice and you you know, essentially are a lot sadder about your bet But with fight island, I've been so excited for this to actually happen I'm pretty much kind of just like throwing money out because I'm like While I am has sent because it is a new place. There's No one's, you know been there people are traveling all over the world Uh, it's like an 11 hour time difference from their usual vegas fights Um, I think it's like eight hours from me, but 11 hours from them. Um So, yeah, there's literally the testing the Not like I think they have to take like four tests like all throughout the week or maybe even more I'm not sure but of course There's a lot of variables that would make a person a sharp person. So, you know, I might not want to bet this You know this card I however, I guess I'm just a little bit more excited than sharp per se I think we're all a little itchy. So I I understand that for for sure So let's talk about your UFC betting process and what that looks like. Are you someone who leans on numbers and data? Do you like to watch past fights because most of them are available on youtube you see What sounds are like what what does it look like for you before you lay down a bet? Well for me and I guy I'm I'm not an expert in UFC So, you know, like I I enjoy watching it so much. I it's so entertaining for me It's I love it. So what I usually do is I'll I'll pick some fighters and I'll go back and I will watch past fights I try to find other fighters that they have fought previously that kind of are In the same element as the fighters are going to fight now. I'll you know, I'll look at How many knockouts if you know if a guy's been knocked out instead of put in or has been Knocked out instead of winning by points and you know, I'll I'll look at props It's just it's all about how the fighter is and it's more of like an eye test for me and especially like I love Fighters with like a lot of swag and they walk into weigh-ins and they're like ready to rip someone's face off or Even the opposite if you walk in and they're like quivering and bent over because they had to make weight and they're just completely Just just done, you know, like I I'm not that will definitely go towards my bet as well. I mean You you gotta you gotta look at all of the variables when you're betting UFC instead of just numbers because at the end of the day they're two people Getting into an octagon ready to take each other's heads off and you don't really know how it's gonna play out Well, I think the tough part with data, too Is that you don't know in what context that those numbers came because every fighter is so different So even if they have a good record you have to adjust for who they were facing the strength of that person and stuff like that So I think I understand too why you'd want to lean more on eye tests there Right. Yeah, I'm just not a big and then that's that's the same way with a lot of the other sports that I cap um, I I think that I mean these are people. I mean besides the horses. These are like people that Whether every day is it's a different day for them It could be their best day or it could be their worst day And you don't know where you're getting the fighters or your your quarterback or your pitch or whatever You know, you just they're they're people at the end of the day So you have to be invested in watching them and learning how they fight and learning the type of person They are and how it can, you know gravitate towards how they perform Megan you said something super interesting there, right? I mean you're looking at guys of the way And that have dehydrated themselves so much that they look a little woozy and might not be able to get that fluid back in them by fight night Um, is that that's what you're saying, right? Right. I mean, I can you imagine like having to cut weight to the point where You are almost passing out on stage and then have to Rehydrate refuel Get your because after you lose all that hydration all like all of that nutrients your brain has to be completely fried too. So I mean you're having to not only refuel your body, but your mind you can't go in there after being completely Dehydrated and you know lack of food and sleep or whatever and And go in there and think that you're going to be able to win because your your your mind's not there and your body's not there Well, and plus you're probably running to lose all that water or weight, which is not It's exhausting Awesome. So the headliner is uh Kamara Usman versus Jorge Mosvedal Usman is the heavy favorite at minus 300 a fan dual sports book Tell us what you see in this fight Um, well, I would tell you guys But I do have a little show coming on later in the week that will give you my pick for that fight I kind of break it down a little bit and give you a little um Jorge Mosvedal and Usman background You know, so well, we can talk a little bit about it, but I don't want to disclose who my pick is yet What are you seeing in this fight? You know, what are the what are the styles of the fighters that you are focusing on when you're trying to dissect this one? I mean look, I feel like Mosvedal is the type of guy that is um a little bit more fluid and can go from striking to wrestling to I mean five second flying me knockouts. I mean, I feel like he can really do it all where Usman is more of the the wrestling style. I think that he's going to try to get Jorge to the ground I think um, I think they're both going to I mean about round probably like round three. They're going to be Super slippery. They're not going to know what to do with each other And I think that's you know, where we're going to see The fight starts to to tilt and you know, again It could it could be round one and it could be something crazy like, you know Usman could come out and just put them in submission or you know Mosvedal could do some crazy off the gate or flying me. Who knows, you know, it's UFC It's two guys at the end of the day fighting. So I guess we'll just have to find out Yeah, and uh to check out that video make sure you follow Megan on twitter at Megan making money And that'll be up on the fandom youtube page later this week too It's like about two other fights here on this card with title implications We got Piotr Jan, uh facing Jose Aldo and then Max Holloway is facing Alexander Volkanovsky Any markers stand out to you and either of those fights based on the current odds over at FanDuel Sportsbook Okay, so with the Jan Aldo fight I I think that I'm not taking Jan straight up because he's just a little too juicy Um, I did I'm trying to let me look at the odds so that I don't get it wrong. Um with Jan I like method of victory By points at plus 240 I think Aldo has I mean, he's been around forever. He's fought. He's he's fought one more fights than Jan has Even, you know fought, uh, he's from he's got the jiu-jitsu style. He's you know, the brazilian jiu-jitsu He's I mean, he's been around so I don't think that I mean look he could get knocked out He's he's is long in the tooth Again, if anything could happen But I feel like he can hang in there long enough to where it it makes it a good fight But jan will probably dominate every round and Aldo will have to hang in there And that's where I kind of found some value there just because it is I think plus 240 so Anything for the Holloway Volkanovsky fight or is that one not as enticing to you? well, uh After it wasn't as enticing and then I saw that Supposedly Holloway hasn't been training like sparring with anyone as far as his training goes He's been doing everything over zoom calls and It's yeah, he hasn't been with any of his trainers because of heavy restriction And I don't know how you go into a ring without physically touching someone For months like it just it doesn't make sense. So Um with that one I went ahead because even Volkanovsky is pretty juicy, too I went it I took the fight to not go the distance at plus 152. That's all at fandall Um, and that's only because I feel like while Holloway Um, he won that he he lost the last fight He's coming back. It's the second fight against Volkanovsky But I really think that he's just not going to be able to take Take the hit. He's not I just don't know how you go in without having sparred someone So I'm going to go ahead and and take a little risk there, but I'm going to have it not go the distance Megan you mentioned a little earlier about you know fighters that are well rounded versus ones that Specifically like to do one thing UFC is very unique in that way and that there's so many different types of of styles Do you find like a preference for generalists versus specialists? When you're thinking about these fights I mean, I personally like like a general fighter because If you're well rounded and whatever you're doing even if the person that you're fighting is like supposedly the best striker ever If you're well rounded in a general sense, I feel like you have a better shot Just at Beating someone else with instead of it's just having more tricks up your sleeve versus one, you know right Yeah, I always tend to think about that in terms of boxers right and going against the knockout artists because they Kind of seem like a one-trip pony whereas the guys that can box have more skill Right, I got I think it's even more so in ufc where there's so many different elements, right? It's not just boxing It's wrestling. It's grappling and all those types of things Let's look at the other fights on this card here We have 12 total fights on saturday, which is pretty interesting And if we can bet on all those over a fan dual sports, but Megan any of them present Value in your odds is where the numbers currently stand outside of those three title implication fights Um, there was one more that was a little interesting to me. It's um another It's a fight that they're they're fighting again. They've already fought before and that's uh rose I don't want to butcher her name Number units. Yes. Um, so she lost last fight Against uh, jessica or jessica. I don't know how that's pronounced I do not want to mess up anyone's names But she lost last fight and it was a weird like slam ko and She was a lot faster than jessica I felt like the whole fight and she thinks she's a favorite um this fight even though she lost last fight But I feel like jessica is just like a Brawler she is so strong and just She's throwing haymakers whenever she gets the chance and I feel like That type of fighter is someone that you especially after you've already fought them once you can really learn To to find holes in their game because if she's just going to come at you and just Big just big strikes big, you know big moves Rose is quick enough to where she can really get in there and for that fight. I think I took let me double check Uh, yes, I took nama junas method of victory by points at plus 155 So I really tried to find some good value within The fights that we're talking about because I don't want to just give out a bunch of you know big juicy favorites and You know clap my hands when when I win Well, especially because people betting ufc a lot of people listen to this probably aren't like diehard ufc listeners And want to just you know casually bet it and you know it makes sense that they want to you know Have a little extra juice on it too. Right All right before we let you go here meg and I do want to talk about horse racing really quickly So we're talking about before and you've been learning this new sport and trying to navigate your way around Uh, you know finding a new betting avenue. So what have you been leaning on? What resources you've been leaning on in order to make your bets there with horse racing to make that transition a bit easier Okay, so first I followed everyone that I thought was smarter than me I feel like that that's always smart always the number one thing that I've done is Try to surround myself with people that are smarter than myself So I followed the smart people I decided on two tracks and I played a couple here and then I played like santa anita I played golf stream Churchill belmont and then I kind of found two that I really liked and I stuck to them So I could get used to you know who was running there the trainers that are there Things like that then I really started to learn how to read the racing form Which I feel like is really really important. Um, especially when you're looking at like past performances and stuff like that So I learned how to read the racing form for the most part You know, and then again, I I'll I kind of put my my card together a lot of the time It's like especially if the weather is nice. I'm picking a lot of chalk courses But if I'm I mean if it hits it hits a winner is a winner And I'm again, I'm not putting a lot of money out there. It's you know, three five ten dollars here and there But that's pretty much what I do I'll put my my card together after I've done my research for the morning made sure the weather is nice See who's kind of what jockey's been taking over for the week if one has had a better week than the other and You know who's running in the race And then I'll put my card together and I go look at everyone who else has put out their card people that I find They're smart. I'm like, oh, okay. Well, they like this horse in this race You know, why do they choose this horse over that horse and then I'll go back and I'll look at my notes and You know, I'll I usually stick with my horse just because I'm stubborn I'll stick with my own and then if I kind of put right little notes up to the side Like, you know, this person picked this horse this reason Um, and if I hit I'll you know highlight mine and if they hit I'll highlight theirs and Tell myself, you know, don't don't be so stubborn Well, I think that that's interesting too because it's always good to hear different processes And I like the way that you reverse engineering it where you see their pick and then try to figure out how they got there Has that led to You know changes in your process seeing how other people do it and kind of investigating What they may have done done right and stuff like because it sounds like a really sound strategy if you're getting into a new sport Well, yeah, um, I really feel like For the most part It's it's worked for me and I as far as like other sports. I I don't I don't use that method. This is just me getting into the horse racing. Sure. Um, but I feel like as far as like Finding what I've done wrong what they've done wrong is it's like I Will miss things, right? So like if I see don't read that like a horse had had a class drop or if they batted blinkers or if There's a certain horse from out of state that's running in the race that I didn't I didn't notice and it's just a little small Like and again, that's why I give so much credit to the horse racing community and people that are doing Multiple tracks all the time. It's it's insane. Like it's definitely you have to love it. It's an art So much respect for all those people. Um, so with me, it's just again, it's fun. It's kind of scratched the itch It's uh It's it's and I like horses. They're really pretty That's perfect. Well, that is Megan Nunez Make sure you give her a follow on twitter at Megan making money Check out her video later this week for fangirl sportsbook and on the fangirl youtube page Megan Good luck with usc 251 and your horse racing bets and hopefully we can talk to you again here soon Thank you. And also, um, is it your birthday today? In theory, I I try not to uh, I try not to reference Well, happy birthday. Well, thank you. I wanted to make sure I Just decided that out there. I've been wondering why there's this little birthday cake on our side Cal found that too. I don't even see it. So I'm just I was confused about it and I'm like, I'm just confused Like you forgot today was your birthday. I'm so sure I try to pretend it's not happening at all times, but thank you. I do appreciate that. Absolutely. I hope it's a great one Covering the future Big thank you once again to Megan Nunez for swinging by and breaking down usc 251 at fight island follow her on twitter At Megan making money and make sure you check out that video as well on the fangirl youtube page And Ed I thought the discussion around adding a new sport and constantly You know reevaluating your process I thought that was it was a a good discussion to have because a lot of us are adding new sports But also b I think that's probably a smart recommendation too as we you know, look into new sports Just constantly reevaluating your process while also being cautious to not overtinker with your process too Yeah, for sure. I mean I think with any sport, you know, uh, you should always be trying to improve whether you know for me, that's obviously improving my models but also Watching more of the game and and understanding the nuances behind what's going on Um, so yeah, I mean, I think you know when you get into a new sport, you're just trying to learn But I feel like you should always be learning even if it's your specialty. Yeah, absolutely There's always more we can learn uh listening to smart people is always good advice as well So big thanks to Megan for coming on and talking about all that Let's take a look at covering the future for this week and Ed Thing we've been discussing ever since the boondestliga came back Was looking at home field with no fans and the data on that keeps on getting more robust as we add sports back between The boondestliga now the epl being back. What does that additional data tell you about home field when there are no fans present? Yeah, so I've been looking at this and I've talked about a little bit On this show getting all my data from fb ref.com The sports reference family of sites Which is where I'm getting my expected goal stuff as well But it's been kind of perplexing because row teams have scored more goals and home teams since they've been back in the boondestliga Which is Not supposed to happen clearly small sample size effect The premier league started next And their home field advantage is actually doubled With no fans and people ask me what's going on. It's like it's just randomness, right? It's it's it's just randomness. It's gonna, you know, we saw regression to A home field of zero in the boondestliga We will eventually see regression in the premier league from double what they were doing before But what we can do is actually just collect that all together And then we can also take the two other leagues in spain and italy and add that in as well If the french can get their act together and start playing football again I will add their data in as well because they're definitely the top five leagues in europe So when you look at all Four of those leagues, uh, you had a home field advantage about point three goals Over a thousand matches before the shutdown happened. That's pretty consistent with what, you know, what, uh, The premier league has had the last couple years and the boondestliga as well So after the restart the home field advantage has been about point one two two goals So essentially that's saying about a 60 reduction in home advantage I think that's the right ballpark could be 50 could be 80 reduction I think it's the right ballpark When you do the calculation is 237 matches your your air is about point one three two So it's essentially the size of what that advantage is And if the the rough estimate is that, you know, uh, about 80 chance that there's there's actually a field advantage without fans and I think that's right I think I was always expecting that there would be a little bit of a home advantage So, you know, we're still gonna keep collecting data Um, I'm gonna look at mlb when that comes along as well Although I kind of started looking at a little bit and they're just like the nfl last year There there was no home advantage last year in baseball Uh, and uh, yeah, which is always disconcerting Especially in baseball when the home team has the advantage of batting last as well So, um, you know, the NBA is being responsible and all playing in neutral sites Like the health authorities want them to so we're not going to get any data there Um, but you know between european soccer between baseball I think we will uh, we'll get a little bit of an estimate and uh We will use that for the nfl this fall So if you had like in theory nfl starts up now out of nowhere Are you thinking like a point? I'm thinking a point. Okay. I'm thinking a point. Um, but you know, that's an ongoing situation Now what actually complicates things is the nfl isn't doing the health responsible thing. It's saying No fans or you know, very few fans in the stadium. They're saying, ah, let's leave it up to the local authorities Which to me is a cash grab that says, you know, if you can get away with it pack your fans in there and make your money So that is an interesting complicating aspect as well. Uh, that might be something I mean, that's definitely something I mean, if they're If they're filling up the stadium in Jacksonville Then you got to account for that. Yeah, and so we'll go back to I kind of look, I think the average over the last five years home field in the nfl is two points Yeah, it was really low when you add in last year's data Uh, and that kind of continues the trend of decreasing home advantage in both nfl and college football But so, you know, there'll be there'll be a lot of nuance to it and uh, Hopefully I'll get it right when I start post the predictions on my site Well, and we'll have more data by then too, which is reassuring because more data is never a bad thing That is for sure From my cover in the future I want to talk here about the chicago white socks and they're a team We have discussed before on this podcast and when we talked about them before it was pumping up your moncada as the league MVP and that was 75 to one at the time But now with the shortened season being official He's down to 30 to 1 so we can't really talk about moncada anymore But a similar mindset with moncada can apply to the team as a whole And that's why I want to snag them at plus 3 10 to win the american league central The white socks are going to be a volatile team this year. That's not a bad thing always Volatility can't be good. You can hit the high end. I think the white socks may be able to they are a young team With a bunch of new pieces That's going to make them hard to predict But most of those young players have a high ceiling and their floor has gotten a lot better with the additions of yasmani grandal Edwin and carnacion and dalis kaikal So I think we can see the impact of those players by going to fangrass.com because there You can see what each team's active roster did last year So it will basically pretend and carnacion and grandal Were on the team at that time and when you make that switch and look at just active rosters The white socks offense ranked sixth in the entire league in w rc plus the twins are also in the al central They rank third, but cleveland who is ahead of the white socks in the betting odds They're all the way down in 16th. They are just 21st in usr per 150, which is a fielding stat They're just third in the american eccentral there. So the fielding not as good But the defense of grandal at catcher should be pretty big here because grandal is an elite framing catcher That's going to help their defense, but it's also going to help their young rotation Make the next step and hit the high end of their range of outcomes We saw a lot out of guys on lucas geolito last year But they've got guys with stuff and potential in dylan c's for another lopez they got potential in that rotation And grandal is a kind of like a cheat code to unlocking that potential the twins are minus 130 to win the division right now I like that team a lot. I think they're very good. I think they should be the favorites But in a 60 game season it seems a little aggressive to put them at minus 130 The white socks win total is just three games lower than the twins So with their division odds at plus 310 I think it's a good time to buy into the volatility and the increased floor that comes with the white socks new pieces And make that bet and I know it's been a short turnaround since the The announcement that the baseball season will be just 60 games, but the other chance to check out any division odds in that time yet I haven't I was just looking at the wind totals. I mean, I I think for this division You can just kind of throw out kansas city in detroit. Yeah, sorry. Sorry. Sorry detroit. Yeah Hey They had some good years But yeah, I mean clearly the twins look good I mean, it looks like cleveland's going to be a contender there as well But I like taking the the volatility of a talented white sock team and I think the reason I went with the Division bet rather than the wind total was because of that volatility The wind total is you know, you're not going to be getting a ton of juice there But you want to go for a more volatile market and you can get a better number with the division They shoot for the upside there didn't think the rotation was good enough to bet them to win the american league or The the world series but to win the division. I think that's within the range of outcomes So I do like the white sock set plus three ten to take down the american league central That's all that we have for this week From a sports perspective, but ed we were talking before the show Hamilton on disney plus Something you've seen live. I had never seen before But it's been interesting to uh for me to consume it for the first time But uh, did you actually watch it this weekend? Oh, yeah, absolutely, man. We had a Little family date with the other family that got it actually originally got us into hamilton. Okay 2016 or maybe 2017 whenever whenever we got into it Like it was an entire year that we were were obsessed with the music Saw it live twice Not something we would normally do but both my wife and I turned 40 that year Um, I read uh, alexander hamilton by ron turn out the the book that it's based on which is brilliant in its own Right, so i'm a huge hamilton fan and it was amazing to see the original cast Yeah, so the the woman that plays angelica Yeah, is so much better than both the people I saw live like it's not it's not even close You know, it's like michael jordan versus Yeah, like I don't know take your pick of crappy too hard league right now Like I mean it it's really that much of a difference and then david diggs who does uh, both lafayette and thomas jefferson like he he does all of lafayette in a french accident, which yeah No one else in the world can probably do or at least no one else that i've seen play that part Actually does it's unbelievable. So to see that live and and and it's The whole show like as much as time that you can spend listening to the soundtrack the whole show was meant to be seen live So there's a lot of songs about like, you know when Uh, there's one song in particular where where hamilton has the affair and writes about it And then they're making fun of them like that doesn't really work just music wise you have to see the whole production Because it's hilarious, right? Yeah. I mean you saw it. It's hilarious. Well, I mean like I had never Like I listened to the soundtrack maybe once. Um didn't get super into it I listened to they made a mixtape It's hard to know what the heck is going on from the soundtrack if you look at it once But the other thing too is you can't so this is going to sound like a tape versus betricks thing It's not that but like there is a sports parallel in watching this because you can tell the talent of uh, Renee Elise Goldsbury who played angelica and leslie odom jr Like it's like when you watch a college football game and there are two guys in the field who are just So much more talented than everyone else you like you appreciate it no matter what your level investment is like, oh They're good and you can tell right away and that was exactly like the takeaway that I had like the music was cool Choreography was really fun. Um, but just watching those two specifically do their stuff It was it blew me away. It was so cool Yeah, they're amazing. I mean, I feel like I saw some pretty good birds Maybe not quite as good as leslie odom jr. Yeah, but You know lafayette and angelica were I mean That was that was the joy and I and I need to really I want to go back and watch it again because I I had I had uninterrupted time to to see the first half but The scene the second half was a little interrupted with life responsibility. So yeah, yeah Are you a musical fan in general or just specific to this one? Um, I mean, I mean, I'll go to a musical but I wouldn't say I'm a huge fan. Yeah, I mean I get I tend to get bored Just because like the constant singing like my brain It gets too distracted if there's too much singing. Uh, but this one is good like Well, you get a lot of different styles. Yeah, that's part of it And you get like the normal songs and then you get, you know, like the king It's all it's all like different styles, which I think And if it's music that I know like the music man in jersey boys, I can jam with those like very easily But when it's music as interesting as hamilton, it's not very hard for me to pay attention and like I don't pay attention to anything in life I very scatterbrained But they held my attention for the entire two hours and 50 minutes So it was it was a lot of fun for sure. Even if you're not a huge musical fan. I think that Definitely worth checking out And I'm glad that I finally got to see it because I feel like I can now appreciate it For what it actually is. Uh, Lin-Manuel Miranda also has a movie coming out. I think it's next year now um called in the heights and Oh cool One of the actors from brooklyn nine nine, uh, who she plays rosa Diaz, Stephanie Beatriz is in that So pretty excited to watch that one too. It should be fun Is that the same idea where they just filmed the Broadway? I think that one might actually be a movie because I don't think she is a stage actor And this is just specific to her because I she's the one I know was in it. Um, but she's like a tv actress So and I think that's another thing where like I listen to the soundtrack. I'm like, I don't understand what is Yeah, right. I just don't get it Give me the whole thing. I would love to go see it Right. Yeah, sweet. Now. I got something to look forward to exactly whenever we get a virus Not a virus a vaccine. Let's not get the virus We can go back to the movies and enjoy, uh, all this great stuff That is all that we have for today final reminder No show next week back again the week after that, uh, talk with Dan Zimborski of fangrass about his zips projections And the impact on volatility of 60 game season big. Thank you again to making to making To Megan Nunez for swinging by talking about usc 251 at fight island. Make sure you follow Megan on twitter Megan making money and check out her, uh, video which will be on the vandal youtube page later this week Ed what's going on for you at the power rank and on the football analytics show? Yeah, you know, I mean I got please sign up for my free email newsletter at thepowerrank.com Usually you'll get predictions for the nfl And college football when that does happen Sample of my best stuff. I usually say for paying members of the site But also in august i'm planning a lot of the work that i've been doing over the past couple months With football analytics, so we're really excited to tell you more about that So make sure you sign up for that newsletter That is a tease Make sure you find ed on the power or on twitter at the power rank and the power rank.com as well I imagine sanis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Big thank you to calvin theobald as always our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal and thank you to everyone for tuning in Hopefully things will go well for you at usc 251 if you decide to dive into some of those bets that Megan recommended And we'll talk to you once again in two weeks. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network