 Good evening. Welcome to NFA Live. I think we're on episode 35 already and as always, hosted myself here and I've got Ben and Guy from Coin Bureau. So gentlemen, welcome back to the show. So we were just talking behind the scenes, just talking about how boring the actual market is because we're in a brutal, bare, boring market. There's some interesting stuff going on. I mean, Scam Wankman and his trial and a couple of different things with some influencers, but here we're just trying to give you as much good information as you can to kind of lead you up to kind of understand what the market is. So I've got four questions for everybody. We're going to take a look at October because Rektember didn't really work out and I'm hoping that October works out, but who the heck knows. Also, we're going to talk about the lows and how and I mean, are the lows actually in? If we take a look historically and then we're going to take a look at some rates. I'm going to look at, there's this thing called not dominance, but the Bitcoin Ethereum pair. So we'll see how that works out. And then we're going to talk about what rallies. And then last question, and this is inspired by Guy, is what conspiracies, what's the craziest conspiracy you've heard? Conspiracy you've heard because I just took a look at a paper from the NSA back in the late 90s, talked about public and private chains or private keys. And the author was Tatsuaki Akamoto, which sounds like this other guy we you guys may know. So as always, everybody, you can find the information for Ben and Guy's sites. You can see them right here, Ben's YouTube channel, Coin Bureau Clips. And of course, you can follow us on Twitter. So let's just jump into it, shall we? October, October. It might be Rektober, might be October. I have no idea. So again, we know that if you take a look at the monthly, there's this site of Mois stealing information from Ben's site. It had a great sale going on, but I think that sale is over. So maybe next month, I'll just see what this guy, Ben, can do for us. But October or September, we're up 4%. And the last 123456, pretty darn negative. So the question is, where do we go on October? Guy, we need your insights. Where do we go in October? I honestly can't see anything on my timeline, anything on the horizon that suggests to me anything else other than sideways, which I know is probably the most hedging your bets boring answer that I can give. But yeah, I think it was interesting to see the pump at the beginning of this week, which is obviously the beginning of the month as well. And I think everyone was sort of like, oh, wow, that's started quicker than we expected. But of course, has now kind of run out of steam, as these pumps tend to do. So yeah, I mean, look, it looks like the ETF narrative not dead, but is kind of dormant at the moment. I don't think off the top of my head, there are any due to be approved or let's face it, kicked further down, delayed, kicked further down the road. So I don't see anything from that corner of the field sort of to affect the market much. I did wonder whether the SBF trial might sort of generate kind of more negative sentiment around crypto in general. Let's face it, there's already plenty of it. So I did kind of wonder whether that, you know, Eric Voorhees made a good point, you know, he said, he tweeted a few days ago just before the trial started, he was, you know, something along the lines of, you know, you're going to see a lot of headlines for crypto is on trial and all this. And it's, it's not crypto isn't on trial. I think I touched on this last week, Sam Bankman Freed is on trial, you know, the people who ran FTX and Alameda essentially are on trial. And, but I mean, whether or not the wider public kind of sees that and appreciates that, I don't know. So I am kind of, I do sort of think we might see some kind of negative sentiment towards the market and towards the industry in general out of the trial. That said, I don't think, I mean, sentiment is already, is already so low. I'm not sure it could really be enough to push the market lower. And I think, but that said, you know, if it is, if it does become clear to people that FTX was fraud, you know, was the result of individuals making criminal and or bad decisions, then, you know, maybe people will start to, start to realize that this wasn't a case of crypto going wrong or blockchains failing or anything like that. But yeah, I think, and, and, you know, when you talk about October and September and all this, I mean, I kind of think, are these not just sort of memes really, you know, past performances is no indicator of future returns. So I think probably sideways, although I'm perfectly prepared to be completely proved wrong by some bit of incredible good news, or absolutely terrible news, possibly as soon as tomorrow. Now that I've said it, you got to love crypto, because if you don't like the prices, just stick around for eight to 12 hours or even less, and it'll change. So guy, I got to tell you, man, I hope you're wrong. I hope it goes in either way. I don't care if it goes up or it goes down, at least it'll be exciting. Ben, what do you got? Because I know that you've been doing a couple different videos, especially taking a look at the S&P and, of course, the Bitcoin bull market support ban. Bitcoin dominance has been in there, I think, maybe recently, but some good stuff. So where are we going here? Yeah, I mean, I guess it depends on what, what, which thing we're talking about. Bitcoin dominance should be going up, right? I mean, it's been going up for a long time. I expect that to continue going up. And I think the bigger question is, you know, at what point do we reach that level with the altcoins that there's no longer sufficient liquidity sort of support the Bitcoin rally? And I mean, we're watching a lot of these altcoins just continue to break down. So, I mean, guys, right. I mean, seasonality only takes you so far. You know, we've done the wake me up, when September ends video, like three or four times now. And you know, like every time it has turned out to be a red month, this time it turned out to be a green month. And it took, you know, it was seven years before the last green September, I think it was 2016. I believe it was the last green September for Bitcoin. So yeah, I mean, normally September is red, it ended up being green. Normally October is green. History shows that it doesn't mean that it has to be, right? So I mean, the true answer is I don't know, right? I mean, I, and it could be a mix of both, right? We could go up for, you know, a part of it and then go down for the sort of the second half or something like that. Like that's a possibility as well, where, you know, you're sort of wrecking everyone and it ends up doing what Guy said, where it basically just goes sideways when, you know, from, from sort of the start of the month to the end of the month, but perhaps everyone got wrecked in between. So, I mean, I still do lean in the direction of sort of like what we've seen in prior prehaving years, whereas like we normally, we normally go up for half a year and down for half a year. So I would imagine, and that is, so every prior prehaving year, we've had six green months and six red months, except for 2015 where we had seven green months and five red months. So it's always been six and six plus or minus one, right? So we've already had six green months. So if we stick to that plus or minus one, then it could mean one more green month this year. But like I still am a student of the past, I think that it will, we will likely see some, you know, some more red before the end of the year as, as liquidity continues to, to drain. And I mean, you know, we've talked about the, you know, the, look at Ethereum, I mean, look what's going on over there. You know, it's, it's, it's still bleeding against Bitcoin. Malice, I guess, I guess when we talk about, you know, like, is it going to be uptober or rectober? It depends on what we're talking about, right? Because a lot of alts could be red for the month. And maybe Bitcoin would be sideways or something. That would be some, well, that would still suck. I'll be honest with you. I guess that would be, that's a perfect segue. Ben, Guy, thanks for the answers. I mean, it's, these are all honest answers. Nobody really knows. Nobody can really predict the future. But I mean, if, if there's history as any indicator, it shouldn't be good, but what if it's not? And the, the big question I think everybody is, because I don't think people care the month to month, unless you're a scalper or like a short-term trader. The big question is this, are the, are the lows, are ultimately the lows already in? And when we take a look at this, like just for the cycle lows, and I share this with you guys yesterday. So if we look at, I mean, the, in the four year cycle, from the top of the bottom in 2013 for Bitcoin, it was an 85% drop. And of course, in 2017 to 2018, and it only took a year. Again, this is like 2013 of November to 2015. Okay. It was like a year and three months here at exactly a year. It went 84% from 19, 6 down to 3000. And then everybody thought that June was, was the low when it went from 67 to 19,000. And then we've got it. And of course it was wrong. It was 9th November. It took again, one more year, 9th November, 2021 to 9th November, 2022, 15, 7. Same thing was happening with Ethereum as it dropped 94% in 2018, 2017, 2018. And then, of course, now we're down to the low was roughly a year, June 2022. And that was a 79% drop, a 90% drop before 75. Don't forget Cardano, one of my favorites. It dropped 98% from 2018 to 2018, roughly a year. And the same thing here is we're going down. It's now it's been 91% as we see like a low around 26, 25 cents, but a 95% drop is everybody just so you guys know, we're looking at 15% or lower. So the question then is, is this the ultimate lows? Because lastly, I will just say this, if we take a look just like the treasury yield spreads, I mean, we're on the highway for a recession. The yield spreads of the 10 and three, we can look at the 10 and two, but it's always it inverts, it un-inverts, and then we have a recession. It inverts, un-inverts, we have a recession. It, I want to just do this. Inverts, un-inverts, recession. Inverts, un-inverts, recession. Inverts, un-inverts, recession. That was in the pandemic. It inverts, it's un-inverting, and we're heading that way. That was a long question. What are the ultimate lows looking like? Whoever wants to take this one, go for it. My view is still unchanged. So back in the summer of 2022, I said either the next low, the Q4 low is the low, or we get one more low beyond that if a recession materializes. The hard part is knowing if a recession materializes or not, or when it materializes, I think there's a, there's a case to be made that the longer it takes to materialize, then the low, you know, that low, the Q4 2022 low could be the low. But if it comes sooner, then we could sort of take out that low. And it's kind of in line with this idea of like a secondary scare that we normally get. Like think about your March 2020 type drop where it was base, it was a higher low for Bitcoin, but only barely. And for a lot of altcoins, it was a much lower low, you know, 30, 40% below their prior lows. And you mentioned Cardano. Cardano, I think, went 30% below its December 2022 low in March of 2020. So, you know, you can, I think that's the thing. And by the way, in the cycle before that, we had a secondary scare and it wasn't due, it was due to a recession scare. We had a recession scare in 2015, 2016 and Bitcoin ended up finding a double bottom. So, I think, I mean, look, everyone has their opinion on, as to whether the lows are in or not, my sort of argument is that it's impossible to know until we see just how bad the secondary scare is. Like, and I don't know how bad the recession will be. I do think we will end in a recession. I just, I don't know how bad it's going to be. Last cycle, it was a very short recession because the Fed just printed our way out of it immediately. Right? What if they don't print our way out of it immediately this time, then that could leave us in a risk-off environment for a longer period of time. And then we still have to sort of face the music as to whether the lows are in or not. I mean, I've said before, Rob, you know, with Bitcoin, the best thing to do for, you know, in most cases is to just DCA, which is what you said, right? According, I do it according to the risk levels. For the altcoins, it doesn't always work out because some alts just go to zero, right? And a lot of alts just kind of bleed back to Bitcoin, regardless of whether Bitcoin goes up or down. So that's kind of where I stand. I mean, Bitcoin may, it's possible. It's going to depend on the recession for a lot of these altcoins. As they've shown us already this year, many, many times, they can continue going lower even as Bitcoin has gone higher, right? I mean, a lot of alts were putting in new lows, even back in June, the same month where Bitcoin was putting in new yearly highs. So, I mean, it all depends on what we're talking about. I think it's more, more, there's a higher, a much higher probability in my opinion that altcoins put in new lows than Bitcoin, but it doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't put in new lows as well, even though, you know, it all depends on how aggressive the secondary scare ends up being. That would be a great segue to the question for about conspiracies as far as like Bitcoin, but we'll get to that later. So, Guy, what do you got? Are you thinking that are the lows already set? Or are you like, I don't know. And then, of course, if the lows aren't set, then of course, you know, why even get into it? Yeah, yeah. I don't have, I mean, I don't have a huge amount to add to what Ben said. I think, yeah, he's absolutely right in my view. Like, we have to wait and see what pans out with this recession, which again, I agree, it does seem, it does seem to be coming. I'm just amazed that it hasn't already happened. Again, I think we've said this a few times. It's like the Fed has done pretty well over the last few months. You know, it's kind of steered the US economy seemingly pretty well to stave off a recession for this long. But yeah, I do think one's coming. So, I mean, I personally kind of feel that I get the sense that we've seen the low and that was in the wake of FTX. I was convinced around that time that it had lower to go. And so I've kind of watched it climb out of that whole sort of ever since. But yeah, I mean, I still think, I certainly think we can go lower from here. In terms of Bitcoin, a kind of price bracket that I'd be looking at would be sort of within that 23 to 25K range. Because if I remember rightly, that is, it's around there that we start talking about miners starting to get squeezed. And I think if that happens, plus as well, of course, we're moving into winter. We had this thing not all that long ago, I think, where Texas asked Bitcoin miners to shut down when the grid was getting overloaded. I think because it was so hot and were turning their aircon on. Now, we could see that again. And something that always, really in order for Bitcoin to see new lows, what we've historically seen in the past is the hash rate collapsing. And instead, and that hasn't happened. And I think that's kind of fascinating. And that is something that I'm still looking out for. It was something that I was talking about kind of this time, well, not this time last year, but during the winter last year, or earlier this year, I should say. And it's something that still kind of concerns me. I think we could still see that collapse in hash rate, especially if miners do start to get squeezed. And if they start to get squeezed around that 23 to 25K range, then it looks like the next stop is sort of 19 to 20K, which would be kind of my guess for the low from here. And that's kind of assuming, again, like we don't see some other sort of disaster on the horizon. That's just kind of assuming that perhaps a cold winter means that miners have to conserve power or are otherwise kind of leaned on to switch things off. And again, like it's interesting to see, I think there was something about sort of something earlier today, how mining is becoming increasingly centralized towards in places like Russia. And also, there's a huge amount happens in Texas as well. And obviously, that kind of centralization is dangerous. So, yeah, that's something that I'm keeping an eye on just to see whether hash rate really does come under threat, whether miners really do start to get in difficulty and what could happen around there. Yeah, you know, that's a good, I always forget about that. It's taken a look at the breakeven point for miners. So, everybody, I just showed you a couple of different charts. That is from lookintobitcoin.com. It is a free site for the Bitcoin charts, the macro stuff you got to pay for. But if you want to do your own research, that's a pretty good place to go to. And just to piggyback on what Guy said, yeah, because Texas, we figured it out. We have a bunch of different energy sources that become unusable at some point. So, we're able to capture those and then turn on the Bitcoin miners, use that, and that generates revenue for the state. When things go wrong, when things get a little bit too hot or too cold, we say, turn it off, we pay the miners, they're like, sure, go right and take it. And it works out pretty well. Cynthia Lummis, Senator of Wyoming is doing the same thing, they're trying to do the same thing in Wyoming. And also, they figured it out in Nebraska. They just had one of the council members talked about how they're actually making money from using Bitcoin mining operations. And I think it's the same thing moving forward because if they understand with electricity as it comes out, there's a fail rate or the ability to actually transfer from the electrical usage point to somebody's house, there's a loss of around 33%, somewhere around there. It's between 20 to 33%, correct me in the comments section. So, if we can utilize more of that electricity and it goes into a place that actually can utilize it faster, well, so much the better. All right, gentlemen, that was a great response for all that stuff as far as ultimate lows. Now, this is kind of like, this is kind of looking in the future. And take this all with a grain of salt. So, we know that Bitcoin rallies first, especially as things happen. It happened back in after the halving in 2020. It happened in 2016 after the halving, and it rallies up first, then it goes in the altcoins. So, you're best, let's be honest, you're best guess, what's going to rally after Bitcoin? And I put in Anne-Yves, because I didn't want you both to cheat and say, well, it's going to be a theory. So, Guy, start off with it. What do you think rallies after Bitcoin? Anne-Yves. Okay, so I want to give a bit of context first. So, if you think back to 2020, the last halving. Now, what Bitcoin obviously rallied here in rallied, and then there was, what else rallied? Well, it was DeFi. This is when we saw DeFi summer. And so, there was basically a crypto niche kind of popped up, a crypto use case. It came up, it became popular, it saw loads of hype, and DeFi tokens went crazy. And I think we all remember that. Funnily enough, they never really rallied much after that. I mean, they did, most of them continued to see gains into the following year into 2021. But that was their big pump. That was the big kind of pump for DeFi tokens. Now, I think we could see something similar this time. We could see another crypto niche, another narrative, if you like, come to like shortly after the halving that will pump a particular category of altcoins. Now, I guess the huge question is what category could that be? And I mean, we've speculated on this before. It could be something like GameFi, for instance. It could be something like decentralized social media. I think there's a chance that we could see another rally in DeFi and DeFi related tokens, or possibly more towards the infrastructure side of things. But whatever. I think there's a very strong possibility that we will see this kind of category, this narrative fire up again. And that seems to, because I think that's what the market kind of needs. It needs this sort of catalyst to give the green light for crypto holders in general to start moving into riskier assets besides BTC and ETH. But in the short, there needs to be a kind of narrative behind it in order to precipitate those flows out of Bitcoin, for instance, out of ETH and into these kind of riskier ones. And 2021, there was the narrative around Ethereum killers, wasn't there? Solana was the big one. And so I think we could perhaps see a similar rotation in something like that. Now, what might be interesting is that they're now talking about the Solana killers, which always strikes me as a little odd, because Ethereum didn't exactly get killed. Solana is kind of holding up fairly well. I think it's seen more inflows or it's more popular with institutions at the moment than ETH is. So perhaps we could see a narrative like that. Perhaps we could see one of these Solana killer NFTs, layer ones kind of lead the charge. But basically, I think it needs a narrative of some sort, like we saw in 2020 with DeFi summer, like we saw in 2021 with Ethereum killers. And then the bigger narrative kind of takes over, the wider narrative of crypto in general takes over, and that's when even more speculative alts kind of see inflows and get driven higher as well. So that's the sort of long answer, but I guess you want me to be a bit more specific. So if you can, this was a great response so far. I got to give it to you. All right. I mean, let's say if we were talking about Solana killers then the ones that spring to mind are things like Aptos and Sui, which we've covered both before. I'm not a particularly big fan of Aptos. Sui, I thought was a bit more interesting. I know both have got a lot of funding, a lot of teams, a lot of development. So the narrative could come from there. I was looking at the charts earlier today just before we kind of came on air, as it were, and I tried to put my more speculative pattern. I tried to put myself in the mind of a retail investor, perhaps someone new to crypto, which remember if we are going to have a bull market, if we are going to see that narrative, we need new people coming in. The crypto community, as it currently is, is not big enough or rich enough to get a bull market going. So we need new interests. We need new people. And I was trying to second-guess what they might be interested in. And unfortunately, I looked at the top 10 and thought, well, the cheapest thing there, if you like, the one with the lowest price point is Dogecoin. So it had me thinking, well, the more cynical side of me thinks, rather than seeing some coin or token with genuine credentials, if you like, it may just be that people start hopping on the next meme coin. So Doge, Pepe, who knows? I think there's a strong chance that could be it. Depressing is that would be, hey, at least it would get interest and excitement going again. So I'm just rolling through this real quick. Because I remember coming in and Dogecoin everybody is fun of it. But just you who are watching the video right now, just think about your favorite token. Has it stayed within the top 20 or 30 and Dogecoin has been around since 2014? So just think about that. Even though it's a joke, hey, seems to work out pretty well. Again, I'm not telling you what to do, not financial advice, but Guy, excellent answer because, I mean, really knows. But I mean, looking at Aptos and Sui and maybe Arbitrum, one of my favorites, it's something to look at because those don't have a ton of bag holders because they're kind of on the newer side. All right, Ben, best guess. Where are we at? Look, I mean, I think what you said, Rob, and I mean, Guy too, but Rob, the last thing that you just said sort of is what people should pay attention to. It's the new things that don't have a lot of bag holders that tend to do the best. That goes back to what we said earlier, right? Like DCAing these sort of altcoins from prior cycles, it's possible to get lucky and to pick like one of the few that actually go to new all-time highs. But the reality is there's a lot of bag holders for a lot of those altcoins. And those bag holders end up being the resistance levels on the way back up in a future in a future bull market, right? So like, if you think about it, how every time the altcoin market rallies, everyone comes out and says, oh, like, look at my altcoin, it's doing great things, like it's going to go to the moon and whatnot. And then it ends up just being another lower high, right? So this creates a lot of bag holders in the bear market. And so that when we go into a bull market, for the altcoin market, which by the way, the altcoin market still to this day has not put in a higher high ever since this whole thing started. When we go back into a bull market, those resistance, those bag holders, they become the resistance levels all the way back up because they just want to get their money out. So it's always the newer coins that tend to take off the best. So I would be looking at some of those, I'm not going to get any specific names because then people will you know, run with that and you know, say all sorts of stuff. But I would look, I would look at two things. I would look at new coins that you can, you can see the narrative playing out, right? You can kind of understand, okay, that's the narrative. People will run with that narrative next cycle to give you an example last cycle. I was, you know, I had some Bitcoin and ETH and I was like, well, you know, I know the fees on ETH are going to go up again to the bull market. And it's going to be a good idea to have a hedge because people are going to be looking for a hedge, right? Or some alternatives, which is why I picked up some, you know, some Cardano, Polkadot and an Avalanche because I just want, and this was, this was last cycle, right? I'm not talking about this cycle. I was like, hey guys, it looks like these alts have probably bottomed out on their Bitcoin pairs. And it looks like we're likely going to have another period where the Ethereum fees skyrocket and people are going to be looking for alternative solutions. And I said back then, I don't think any of them are going to kill ETH, you know, they're not going to flip it or anything like that. But you have to think about the narrative. So look for new projects that actually have a good narrative, good utility. But the other thing is, and I've said this before as well, right? Look to see which altcoins are not going lower on their Bitcoin pairs, right? Look at those. And there's not, there's not, I mean, most of them are just they just continue to push lower. Some of them, you know, have maybe gone up a little bit. If you have an altcoin and you pull up the Bitcoin chart of it, and it's been putting in higher lows for the last six to 12 months, then that bodes well for that altcoin. Assuming there's not like a rug pull or, you know, some, some, you know, idiosyncratic risk related to that. But as long as it's putting in higher lows or it's holding its lows on its Bitcoin pair, that tends to bode well for that altcoin on average, you know, for a future, for a future cycle. So I'm not saying that altcoin can't do well this year. It just that, you know, once you get to the having year and the post having year, those are the altcoins that tend to do, tend to do pretty well. It's like a last cycle chain link was putting in higher lows, you know, throughout all of 2019. And then it was one of the points that had the best performance in 2020, right? And it went on a parabolic rally. I think Guy mentioned the DeFi summer of 2020 earlier. Link was, was one of those coins. And you could have known that there was a high likelihood of that occurring in the having year. Had you just looked at the Bitcoin pair and said, Hey, Link, Link Bitcoin has been going up for a year, you know, and note that Link got wrecked on its USD pair when the, when the, when the pandemic arrived, right? So a lot of these altcoins that are now putting in higher lows on their Bitcoin pairs, it doesn't mean they can't get wrecked if that recession comes that you're, you know, you were pointing out earlier, Rob. It just means look to their Bitcoin pairs to see which ones are, are, you know, have the best chance of pulling it off. And, you know, that, that I think is the, is the main thing to sort of take away. Yeah, it's a good, so again, excellent response to both. Yeah. I mean, that was really good. And then just as a reminder for everybody, I know we talk about how things are going to go lower and it sounds kind of like a little bit negative, but let me flip it for you real quick and just talk to you about what could not, what could potentially happen as we just talked about that to death, but how great things were and how great things were. And I have this, there's a link in the description. It's just called did it all timeites, but the very bottom, and I took a look at, you know, everything as far as like from 2017 to, you know, which ones are actually left. One thing I want to remind everybody is wouldn't it be great to go back in time if we had that time machine and pick up Ethereum for 84 bucks or Bitcoin at 3,250 or gosh, Cardano at 3 cents or Stellar 3 cents or a bunch of these different things that we can just look at at the time. What the heck? Dogecoin was a fraction of a penny. The whole thing is like this, I know it sounds scary right now and it looks awful and just blah, blah, blah, but remember that when you look back and take a look at these prices, you're like, shoot, those are some really good prices. The question is, you know, when is the ultimate lows? And that's for you guys to decide and figure out. But when I take a look at them, like, you know what, I wish I could go back in time and buy those. I remember at those that same point, this is in 2018, and I was like, man, I don't know if I should buy Ethereum for 84 bucks or 90 bucks or below 100 bucks is who knows what's going to happen. Of course, we look out having said all that out of those top 53 I just showed you from 2017 out of all of those only 11 out of 53 were actually putting in all time highs in 2021. And that would be something to also think about. So lastly, and before we go on this, we're doing pretty good in time. So if you guys got questions specifically for Guy or for Ben or for myself, put those in the comments now and we'll take a look at it and we'll do a little Q&A. All the burning questions you've been dying to ask, just couldn't do it because you couldn't make a live one. Well, here you are. Let's talk about something a little bit fun, conspiracies. Everybody loves a conspiracy. My favorite so far has been this. So what have you guys seen as far as the most crazy conspiracies that are out there? This was mine. So there was a paper. It was how to make a mint the cryptography of anonymous electric electronic cash. And this was put out by the National Security Agency, the NSA, the Cryptology Division. And this was in 1996. And I'm not going to go through this, but it's about 10 pages or so. But it talks a lot about private keys, private key between users in a secure and authenticated way. It talks about public keys, public key cryptography. And it was one of the one of the references of what they took a look at was by an author of Tony Ng and Tatsuaki Okamoto, which sounds a lot like Satoshi Nakamoto. This is one of my favorite ones. I don't know if I think Guy you've talked about this before, but what are your favorite conspiracies out there just to mix it up a bit? It's interesting, Rob, because on the back of that one about the NSA creating Bitcoin, it's interesting because Tor, the dark web browser, was supposedly created by, I think it was the Naval Intelligence Unit. It was supposedly created by an arm of the US government as well. So it kind of, those two kind of tie in quite nicely. I think Tor was developed to, as a way of US spies overseas, enabling them to sort of get back in contact with base without sort of having to reveal their whereabouts, reveal their IP address and such. So yeah, those two tie in quite interestingly. Anyhow, the one that kind of spun most readily to mind for me was another one about Satoshi and that was obviously people love to speculate on the real identity of Satoshi, but one of the more interesting candidates I think. I think you can, I'm not sure if this technically counts as a conspiracy theory, but one of the candidates is this chap Paul LaRue, who was a software developer, a very, very smart guy, but also an extremely violent criminal who is now serving, I think he may have been locked up for the rest of his life. He's sort of a former cartel boss, among other things, a really not the sort of guy you would want to run into at a crypto conference or down dark alley or anything else, but I remember we covered this in a video years ago when we sort of went through some Satoshi candidates and this guy was kind of intriguing, this idea that he was really, really, really smart, but also really, really violent and obviously the fact that he's been incarcerated for quite a few years now and is I think going to spend a good few years more incarcerated, that obviously explains why he hasn't been able to touch any of Satoshi's million-odd Bitcoin, so that was one that kind of sprung to mind most readily for me. Have you heard that one, Paul LaRue? I've never heard that before in my life, so maybe that's it, so I hope that guy stays in jail because that million or however many different Bitcoin are there, that means they're locked up forever, just like that guy. All right, Ben, any kind of crazy conspiracy theories? Because I know people don't usually ask you this. They're like, hey, what about that Bitcoin dominance or the Bitcoin ship pairs? No one asked Ben about conspiracies, so why not? Yeah, I don't know. I'm not a big believer in this. I don't focus on it too much, I guess. I mean, the whole stuff around who Satoshi Nakamoto is is probably one of the biggest ones. The only personal ones I can think of or relate to are when people often say things like, oh, I'm just sputting altcoins so I can keep buying them cheap or something. It's completely ridiculous. It's all ridiculous, but it's fun. It's ridiculous, just like the Sam Bankman-Free trial, which is ridiculous right now. Nothing's going to come out of that for quite some time, and there's the different conspiracy. I remember, I've heard like Vladimir Putin was the creator of Bitcoin to destroy America, and I've heard that this crazy one, this guy named Craig Wright, it was the Satoshi Nakamoto, which hasn't been proven whatsoever. All he has to do is move some coins, but whatever. All right, so that would take place of the conspiracy theory. Hey, we did it, 37 minutes, and now we got time for some questions. I've taken a look in the comments section. I can tell it's the bear market, and just like we talked about, not many questions coming up, but here's some of the good ones that I have found so far. First of all, guys, thanks. Those were great responses for some really wacky questions. Mr. Moe says, you're just speculating, Bitcoin's never been in a crazy time like this. You can see that everything's changing. Next year is going to be explosive. I heard that too in 2017. I heard that also in 2018, 19, 20, 21, is this time different, the most famous quote in finance, but this time it's different. What do you guys think? I mean, I should say he's absolutely right with the first part of that. We are just speculating. That's all we can do. We're making our most educated guesses, but it is all just that at the end of the day. It is just guesses. So like I say, I'm fully prepared to be proved wrong on everything that I say, but I say it with a lot of hindsight and having listened to you and Ben a lot, et cetera. So they are educated guesses, but at the end of the day, they are just that. Look, there are people whose opinions I respect a great deal. Arthur Hayes is one who springs to mind, who is extremely bullish. He says that we're going to see this turnaround. The Fed have screwed things up so badly that they're going to have basically no choice but to turn on the money printer before too long. And I think his timeline, if I remember rightly what he said in Singapore, his timeline is sort of 2026 is going to be the absolute mother of all bull markets, according to him. And then after that, it's all going to get a little bit dicey, but Arthur Hayes is a smart guy. And his blog, his sub-stack, is kind of one of my favorite resources to read. But I don't happen to agree with him. I'm not sure we are going to see this absolutely insane bull market, much as I would like to do that. But yeah, I mean, I think there is a chance that next year could be pretty explosive, but my timeline is slightly longer. I think 2025 is when we're more likely to see, when hopefully by that point, the situation with inflation will have calmed down a bit. I guess we sort of, we ask for it. We talk about a Fed pivot, don't we? But again, as you've pointed out, Rob and Ben, we have to be kind of careful what we wish for them, because a pivot generally means something really bad has happened. So maybe he's right. Next year could very well be explosive, just perhaps for the wrong reasons. Be explosive that way rather than that way. Let's hope not. I watched Hayes, he was on Impact Theory with Tom Billu, and he said the same thing. What he's talking about is he goes, yeah, the big mother of all blow-off tops is in 2026. After that, we're going to see some problems with AI and the reduction in the job force that then maybe different wars that are going to break out. He said after that, it's going to get really bad. But hey, I'll hit the go with the bad and we'll see how it goes. Hopefully not World War III. Ben, what do you got? Same thing? Do we going to see it? Yeah, I mean, look, but it could be explosive in both directions, right? I mean, oftentimes having years are, we get like everyone piles in for the halving and then Bitcoin gets a pretty large correction sometime either before the halving or after the halving. I think last halving, we actually just went up after the halving. The halving before that, I think right after the halving, we had like a 20% drop or something. So yeah, I mean, a lot of times having years are pretty explosive in both directions. And I think it makes sense because if, you know, with this inverted yield curve, if the Fed does in fact break something, it would likely lead to an explosive move to the downside, but then they would likely start QE. And that would lead to an explosive move back up to the upside. So you could have elements of both. Yeah. And as a reminder, just to piggyback on what you said is, you know, even though when we get into the bull market, we still have massive pullbacks. I mean, take a look at 2017. I mean, heck, just take a look at 2021. I mean, we had a nice run up to 64, 63,000 and then dropped by, I don't know, 40%, 30% and then it rallied back up to 67, 68,000 in November. So don't think that just because we're in the bull run that everything goes up, it doesn't. It's a nice little, nice little give and take. Steven says, why are you waiting for your daddy Jerome to tell you it's a recession instead of bringing the room? I don't, excuse me. I don't really think we're in a full blown out recession right now, but I think it is coming. Anybody have some thoughts about this? I mean, it's the natural, it's not, it's the NBER, right? The National Bureau of Economic Research that's going to say it. I mean, Jerome Powell's not just going to come out and put down the gavel and say, I declare a recession, right? So I don't, I mean, it's kind of a weird question because I don't think anyone's waiting to hear Jerome say it. I think that, I think that the NBER will come out and say it when after, after the labor market softens up, right? But they're not going to come out and say it until the labor market softens up. So I mean, in terms of reading the room, I mean, you can try to read the room, but the data, we just got initial claims and continued claims again this morning and they're still relatively low, right? I mean, they're not, they're not yet printing recessionary levels, right? It doesn't mean it's not going to happen. They're not yet printing recessionary levels. So it's just, it's just more so looking at the data rather than caring what Jerome has to say about, about whether a recession or not. Yeah, I can see that. What's the tab openings? I think we just, we just saw that for some reason that didn't do so well. Yeah, I just look at, it's the first one on the screen right there. Yeah, that one, it's sort of a stochastic process down, it looks like, right? Like just sort of slowly going down every, every once in a while, we get a spike back up. But normally after that spike, we just sort of make up for it to the downside the following month in terms of job openings. Yeah. And that's why I like your site then, because like, when people tell me one thing, I'm like, I think they're full of it. So I just go take a look at that and say, oh, okay, well, does that actually make sense? All right. I get a lot of questions. What's up guys? In the absence of questions, should we, should we try and start a conspiracy theory of our own? Yes. A rumor of our own? Maybe that, I don't know, maybe that Pepe was, was cooked up just to, just to increase transactions on Ethereum. I think that'd be a good one. That would be a great one. I think Pepe was also created by the NSA. And then of course, that would lead me to my next video, which is the Pepe coin dominance video. And let's see exactly how it goes. All right. So I want to, I want to talk about something here because, you know, we've talked about the ether Bitcoin pair a lot, right? Over the last year and a half. And we are at that support level, right? If everyone, everyone has been looking at this sort of the descending wedge right on the ether Bitcoin pair forever, right? And I've been very bearish on it for over a year. But the thing that I've heard people say the most is that I'm underestimating it because of it, it's being, it's deflationary, right? And, and that's the thing that comes every single time, right? You're, you're discounting the tokenomics, right? It's deflationary. It's different. What do you guys think of the fact that we're still seeing this trend where there's now more, there's more eth being issued than burned? I mean, we talked about this last week as well, but it's continuing. And, you know, guy was, guy was talking about this earlier. It seems like a lot of the social, like if you go on Twitter, it's like a ghost town, right? Think about, think about the crypto verse, right? There's not a lot of people actually partaking in a lot of these different, you know, platforms and communities because they're just bored of it. So what do we make of, of, of, you know, sort of this deflationary narrative now that it appears that, and maybe, maybe Rob, you could pull up the ultrasound money website, because I mean, it looks like it's heading in the wrong direction, right? It looks like it's just sort of starting to head back up. And I'm curious what you guys think of how that will affect things. I'll leave this one for Guy. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's definitely going to, it's, it's definitely going to be bad for Ethan the, in the, in the short to medium term, I think, because I think as we discussed last week as well, this isn't going to change. You know, it's not going to become deflationary again until, until we see network activity pick up. And that network activity is, is, you know, reflective of, of the wider crypto bus, I think it means people using DeFi. It means people using stable coins. It means people minting, selling, trading NFTs. And that's just, and that's just not happening. So as a lot, and that does make, that does make ETH more vulnerable, I think, because it is, it is a lot more subject to, because of this inflationary, inflationary trend, it is, it is a lot more vulnerable to, to sort of wider market conditions, probably much more so than, than Bitcoin is, because Bitcoin, you know, it has that sort of safer haven idea. People are content to sort of buy and hold a lot more. And when you pair that with the fact that institutional interest in, in Ethereum, in ETH, which was, which was kind of getting quite strong, especially when, especially with the upgrade when, you know, when it became possible to un-stake, there was a lot of speculation that institutions would be looking to get in then. They don't seem to be doing that anymore. Why, you know, why stake ETH when you can get the same or more in terms of yield with, with U.S. Treasuries. So yeah, that, that, that doesn't bode well for, for ETH in the short to medium term. It needs the rest of the crypto market to, to pick up. It needs sentiment to improve, activity to improve, etc. So yeah, it is, it is more vulnerable than Bitcoin, certainly. People got to start using Ethereum so I can start paying out right as Ethereum gas prices. So everybody, it's up to you to do those things. I've missed that. I've missed that. So here's a good question. Rob, Guy, Ben, did you guys outperform your whole crypto carrier with alts or for Bitcoin? Like, I guess if you're asking this, like, what, I don't know if this is the right, let me, let me switch it around. Where are your biggest gains in the total market cap space of crypto and Bitcoin? Your biggest gains? Did you, was it in Bitcoin or was it, wow, this is, this is still the same question. It was at alts. Did you outperform? Did you outperform? Okay. How about this? In the last bull market, which, which one outperformed either? Was it Bitcoin or was it alts for what you did? So the strategy that I use is, and I've said this right, like it's just, it's Bitcoin heavy. Okay. Once we get early on into the, into the halving year, maybe even late this year, late this year, early next year, that's normally when it starts to become okay to pick up alts coins because they're, they're around that point where they're now starting to bottom out against Bitcoin. But I would say the, the weighted, it's not a, it's not black and white. It's not just Bitcoin or just alts coins. It's, you ride the Bitcoin parabolic rally up and then as Bitcoin is going up, you convert some of that Bitcoin into alts coins because after Bitcoin hits a new high, the alts coins then take off themselves. That's not to say you shouldn't have any alts coins before that. I think it's worthwhile to have some, before Bitcoin has a parabolic rally because like, you know, some of them will outperform Bitcoin in the, in the halving year. So it's not really black and white. I think you can, you can sort of ride Bitcoin for a while as this parabolic rally is going on. You then convert some of that to alts ether. You know, earlier you said that ether moves, but ether is actually the last one to make its move in, in the bull market, right? So it's Bitcoin, then alts, then it's the ETH Tsunami, right? It's the Ethereum goes up two X and two weeks. It did it in 2018 700 to 400 and two weeks. Last cycle, it did it 2,200 to 4,400 and two weeks. And then that typically marks the end of it. So it doesn't have to be like one or the other. It's sort of like it's, it's, you go into it with mostly Bitcoin, some ETH and some alts, you convert some of that Bitcoin to alts during that parabolic rally. And then as alts pop off, you then convert the alts into Ethereum, Ethereum goes off and then everything crashes. So it's not, it's not just one or the other. I think it's a combination of all of them. Woof. That's always the way, right? Bitcoin jumps up and then everything kind of follows it. That's just how it goes. A lot of questions about the pool. Is the pool real? And if so, prove it. You asked for questions and then it's like, when's Ben going to grow a beard? When's Ben's next haircut? The pool green screen is a popular one. Yeah. Once, once Ben gets his basic training Army haircut, then that'll be the questions up to day. This is a green screen. And then last thing, and then we'll get out of here. Do you expect another exchange to get another FTX, which is a good question to get another FTX crash? I'll just say like this, it won't matter if you follow the rules that I've laid out, which is first of all, don't invest money. You can afford to lose. And that's, I think is the big thing. If you, if things go up and down cares, because you're like, well, I can lose the 20 bucks or the hundred bucks or if you're a baller, you're like, I can, I can lose that million dollars that's that I put into it because I don't, that's, it's something I can afford to lose. That's, you know, that's how guy rules. And then everything's a scam until pre otherwise, don't, don't leave anything on exchanges. There's a bunch of cold storage wallet devices. I've got a ledger. I've got an Ali Pal and I got a tangent and I can diversify that and it works out pretty well. Don't use leverage. I mean, you want to do two or three X, I guess, and then take profits along the way because nobody ever went broke taking profits. So that's it. But what do you guys think? Is there anything that you could foresee as the next big thing as far as negativity? I don't think I like, I don't go into it expecting an exchange to fall. I mean, it could happen, right? Like anything could happen. I would prefer for them not to fall, you know, like it would just make the cryptoverse look worse and would take longer for people to come back. So I don't, I don't think I have any expectations of any of them falling. But I mean, we always have to be prepared in case it, in case it happens. And, you know, I mean, don't make it your concern by just not keeping your crypto on the exchange, you know, and also having some cash in case, in case there is a big event like that, you want to be able to take advantage of it. That's true. Guy, what do you think? One of those things you don't like there? It's the, it's the old adage, isn't it? Hope for the best, expect the worst. I would, I would really hope that after everything that's happened, not just, I mean, not just in the last year with FTX, but with, with exchanges before it, you know, even going back as far as Mt. Gox, I would, I would really hope that exchanges have, have, you know, learned their lessons from this. And obviously, you know, we talk about things like proof of reserves are becoming, becoming bigger. I think people are generally expecting exchanges to hold themselves to higher standards. So I would hope that, that lesson has been learned. But as you said, Rob, and, and, and has been echoed, you know, it's like, insulate yourself from it. Maybe, maybe a big exchange will go down. That will be bad for the market, but it won't affect you if you're self-custiding your crypto. And, you know, you're not leaving it there. You're not trust, entrusting it to, to a third party. So yeah, I, I really hope that we've got past that stage of it. I mean, I guess they'll always be kind of bucket shop exchanges, weren't they? They'll always be shifty ones. And I hope they get, I hope they get crowded out, but I guess there will always be, you know, I get, you know, places not requiring KYC and things like that. There's always going to be a market for, for a sort of shadier exchanges, I guess. But yeah, let's just, just assume that it could still happen. Right. There is a scam and a rug pull around every corner. So just everybody remember that, because it's going to happen again. All right, everybody. So look, we're coming up in the top of the hour. I know these guys got things to do. So everybody, thanks so much for stopping by again, check out Ben, check out Guy. Guy's got two channels. Ben's got one, but it's pretty good. And you can find those links in the description. So that's it for today, everybody. Thanks so much for stopping by. We appreciate it. And we'll see you on the next one. Have a good week. See you guys. We'll see you, everyone.