 Okay, so very good morning. Hope everyone is well. Tuesday 18th of June, gonna run through a couple of the major news items from this morning and then as per usual hand you over to Sam and he'll look at the charts for much more technical perspective but possible that today I could be on for a very short period of time just there's not too much to really there's moving markets at the moment not with the fact that everyone's really waiting for this big FMC announcement to come tomorrow night which will be covering live via our YouTube channels to do subscribe to the channel turn on the notifications for catching that session but overall though given the magnitude of that magnitude of that event if I think back only about six or seven weeks ago is a pretty much a not so much a non-event but certainly wasn't one of the most important ones because you weren't anticipating any real likelihood of substantial changes but obviously that's radically changed and now Wednesday night really is quite a big situation and decision that the Fed need to make and how far do they come to meet market expectations and I was looking out on the next 12 months and we're now pricing in almost four rate cuts over a year period so that including three for this year which is quite incredible really when you think about where we were just two months ago so with that in mind I think that does need to be applied to your approach to today's session possibly tomorrow morning as well it will probably start to saturate kind of market attention to the point where people are just sitting on their hands waiting on the sidelines for the Fed to show what they're going to do in particular I was looking yesterday there's about a 20% chance of an interest rate cut I would say most big institutions are not expecting that to happen however I did read last night PIMCO are looking for 50 basis point cut tomorrow that would be punchy to say the least one of the things that they're saying is the Fed want to kind of get ahead of the curve you know show a strong signal to the market that they're willing to act I would say that the general consensus though is probably the opposite of that take someone like Goldman's chief economist Jan Hasseas he expects no rate cut at all in 2019 so that's pretty much your spread if you like you got PIMCO on one side and Goldman's taking the other but I think from my point of view you know the central banks normal communication method is to they want to manage market expectations in a way that certainly don't want to shock them if the market is expecting rate cuts I do think that the Fed although will not pre-commit will give a pretty clear hint towards a cut in July I think then though they'd want to keep the kind of optionality about further subsequent cuts depending on incoming data so this data dependency does the inflation situation continue to deteriorate alongside other domestic data and then how does the trade war play out will dictate whether or not they will go for the second and the third is how I'm kind of viewing things at this point so yeah definitely not thinking that the dot plot for 2019 is going to show directly three rate cuts for this year I think they'll use the form of verbal communication the press conference potentially in the statement to signify the fact that they remain open to that as a potential route but not committing to it so definitively as dots on the matrix so to speak so as I said net net as far as today is concerned and I think it will carry through into tomorrow you've just got to be a little bit I guess aware of the fact that markets are probably likely to be potentially a little bit range bound a lack of commitment or follow through into real direct directional playing until we get into the second half of the week so I guess a little bit of discipline is of the order because the best opportunities likely might come the second part of the week overall quick look across the board then pretty mixed Asia session I think really too spectacular to talk about just having hit the charts at the morning the DAX just coming down towards I can see here Sam would have had marked up the lower bound of some of the end of last week's price action so maybe worth just keeping an eye on at 12,050 level in the DAX otherwise US indices as I said pretty range bound WTI crude coming back down to test it looks like the low of yesterday's session that we saw yesterday evening US hours so just keep an eye on around there around 5180 treasury is pretty flat gold minor positive comes amid a slightly softer dollar Dixie down about 0.14% and that's helping elevate slightly the major currency pairs see here euro dollar coming into some near-term resistance around this R1 which coincides with the high point from yesterday's range cable I guess a little bit of a pullback from the depressed move yesterday I think was was it a month multi-month low its market still kind of bedding in this prospect of a Boris Johnson led conservative party moving on though to the headlines I'll let Sam go over the charts in more detail this is a couple of things just to cover off one is obviously we're coming close towards the expiration of the existing OPEC plus supply packed that's been in play and rolled over for some time where we're at at this situation at the moment is about fixing a date as towards when they were going to meet because this did get delayed it was originally penciled in for June it was then lights of Saudi and some of the other major producers have talked about doing it in early July and now Iran has said that they can't actually physically make that meeting they prefer more I think it was the 12 13th basically the second week of July and so at this point it's still a we haven't got yet a definitive date but this obviously is important because the more this drags out then the closer we get to potentially the lapse of that deal and that would be worst-case scenario for prices but it's highly unlikely I'd say that would happen just given the state of play and with oil seeing a pretty aggressive pullback over the course of the last few weeks as the demand side of the situation you know has has weighed on prices outweighing some of the supply shop risks that we had last week in the in the Strait of Hamas on that point few things to be aware of Trump yesterday I don't think this is again particularly shocking they shouldn't I don't think create an idea in your mind that you'd want to get long oil but it's certainly something which could I think if anything it would depress oil because it would tame the situation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards ability to perform any further stunts like they did last week this is because the U.S. ascending up to I think it was 1500 the FT reporting here a thousand troops to the Middle East amid Iran tensions just to provide further air naval and ground based threats to repel those with additional deployment of of military forces on that front there was a graphic that I did tweet last week that was quite useful by Platts oil and one thing here on the top left you can see the basically I just wanted to represent that the actual area in a bit more detail you can see there the site of Thursday's alleged tanker attacks so that's the red spot here in the Gulf of Oman which is kind of close to the tip of Oman's southern part of Iran but you can see there that the the narrow nature of the geography around the Straits of Hamas the inbound and outbound channels is actually only two shipping lanes and that's it in what is you know it's hard to see in that graphic it looks pretty tight but it's a 21 mile wide at its narrowest point which sounds quite wide when you think about 21 miles but in reality when you think about the size of these ships and the type of area that's a requirement for them to pass without any issues then it is particularly narrow one thing here to be aware of then given that nature of the the narrowness of the channel and the slow moving nature of the traffic that then as a byproduct of that has to travel it's very much susceptible to attacks and as you can see that could be either onshore attacks or hostile vessels looking to attack the tankers as they pass through now a couple things here I just wanted to be make you aware of in terms of the forms of which attacks could happen there are several options that the Iranians have at their disposal they could target enemy shipping including mines coastal missile batteries submarines Navy vessels small fleets of small and fast highly maneuverable boats as we saw some of the footage of what happened last week now back in well I guess this was going about 20 years ago when there was a lot of tension in this area a lot of this was done by shore based missiles and speedboat attacks what's happening here then is really two things by sending more troops on behalf of the US you know they have such superiority in that you know they're the size of their fleet I think it's the fifth naval fleet that's that's moved there they would be able to repel pretty much every single form of attack and would be able to restrict any type of issue in the in that particular region so all in all the analysis proves that the net result here is that is highly unlikely that the country Iran could block the straight to shipping for more than just a few days or a couple of weeks and the main point is if they even contemplated in doing so the military response and the interpretation the Americans and its allies would take from that would be you know so extreme that Iran wouldn't pull the trigger in the first place anyway so I think the the realization of that was quite evident last week I know Sam covered this at the time but it does go some way to explain why despite the initial headline flurry and 4% price appreciation appreciation we had the move was unable to be sustained and certainly now I think with the US moving in the troops it means it's even more unlikely I think that you're going to see any further confrontation in that area quick look though back at the DAX I did just see as I was talking that we just pop through that level I mean you can see how just how volatile the DAX is I mean just to be clear here there is no fundamental catalyst that just caused that break over the course of the last few minutes while we're just speaking there this is absolute 101 DAX action you can see here the range that we've been holding pretty much for the last eight days just breaking through you got these ellipse here marked at the bottom end of that range snap through fast money price movement typically then the speculative traders will look for the first you know exit and that normally when the markets are moving in high velocity looking at the pivot levels most obvious so you can see how that s2 they're working is a pretty good target on the downside so yeah just saw that more of a technical breach there in the DAX the other thing of course that we're looking out for today it is round 2 for these gentlemen these are the running candidates for Tory leadership they're facing their second ballot vote so let me just refresh your memory of what the plan is here we've had the first round where conservative MPs vote and candidates receiving fewer than 17 votes are eliminated remember that did see some fall by the wayside the one who only just by a whisker cut the made the cut was Rory Stewart at the time he had 19 however he's he seems to have caught quite a lot of the attention given his alternate angle comparative to the other candidates and how he would deal with things going forward so that could be quite an interesting one to watch and second vote the main point here is candidates receiving fewer than 33 votes are eliminated is what we're looking out for timings wise this is going to happen at 6 p.m. London time when we get the results that's not going to happen till 6 o'clock this evening and then at 8 to 9 p.m. the remaining candidates will appear in a live televised debate on BBC and Boris Johnson will be taking part this time as far as it has been communicated at the moment so obviously subject to change but definitely going to be quite interesting if Boris does appear obviously quite a few of the candidates have been tweeting or commenting yesterday at the kind of press gatherings in regards to what Trump has been saying on his criticism of the London mayor for one Jeremy actually coming out supporting Trump on the issue in regards to knife crime and so on but it'd be very interesting of course to see how Boris would respond to such ideas about his relationship with Donald Trump for sure so that's going to be one of interest could the pound move on that live televised debate actually I think it could and I wouldn't have that as my baseline scenario I would say more likely or not the televised debate will go through in the pound or remain unmoved but if Boris Johnson does appear let's say he says something spectacularly offensive to the point of even more offensive than Donald Trump's best work then that would severely harm I would think then his prospects of him being an outright front runner and it would throw into disarray then this whole you know Boris has got this you know this this position sealed and so that certainly could be very interesting if that was to occur remember I'd say if Boris was to go let's say fall down the pecking order I've probably see that as in the short term sterling positive because other than Dominic Rab which I don't see making the cut today quite frankly I'd say if Rory Stuart if it swings in his favor that's got to be sterling positive to a lesser degree Jeremy Hunt because he has been he's the second in the running at the moment and that being because he has talked about an openness potentially for an extension and so on one interesting point I picked up in the UK press this morning is that apparently according to sources Boris Johnson has been secretly his team suggesting they could blend hunt some of his votes in order for Johnson not to go against Gove quite interesting there because Gove typically seen as the more harsher challenge for for Boris in that sense and particularly in the live debating arena so yeah that's enough on on that situation for now other things to be aware of a touch of Aussie weakness overnight the RBA released their minutes remember they cut rates more recently they've said further rate cut more likely than not in the period ahead the other headlines we've had our China's US Treasury holding sink to lowest level in two years as you can see Treasury market hasn't blinked and rightly so I'm bringing this headline so you're aware of it the reality is it's not important because this is a consistent pattern that's been happening for a fairly long period of time well those are the news wires will make a mountain out of a molehill saying that this is real the reaction effect that China were doing to counteract an escalating trade war this has been going on for a long time so unless they radically alter the speed of purchases then this really is just a continuation of a trend all things being equal the other consideration today before I look at the calendar from a speaker's point of view it starts to spice up a little bit at the ECB forum in central Portugal this typically has been a platform for heads of central banks to communicate their latest policy stances outside of their regular meetings so I was just looking at the agenda for Tuesday and here it is the main thing you're looking out for today is the policy panel happening at 3pm so in addition to your written calendar of economic data 3pm you have a panel including Mark Carney of the Bank of England Mario Draghi of the ECB and Stanley Fisher the former vice chair of the Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve in particular Draghi I think needs to be watched probably to a slightly lesser extent Mark Carney because some what his hands are tied and unlikely he's going to say too much ahead of the official Bank of England meeting on Thursday but definitely Draghi would want to be wanting to hear from any further clarity about his assessment of current economic conditions and policy responses how dovish does he want to sound it's going to be quite key and I think something to consider if you're trading European assets for sure. In terms of the calendar for the rest of the day though other than that you do have Eurozone CPI but that is final reading so I wouldn't be expecting any any great movement on the back of that you don't have German ZEW economic sentiment at 10 o'clock could be fairly interesting again I wouldn't say though particularly market moving it it normally is second fiddle to German ifo this being ZEW the economists kind of forward-looking soft data into the afternoon you have the housing starts building permits coming out of the US you get the Tory leadership second ballot results tentatively scheduled for six o'clock as far as BBC is concerned when I've checked this this morning that debate happening at 8 and 9 p.m. on the BBC all infantry from the API is this evening and as I said a couple of speakers to have a look out for the calendar here has Draghi potentially an opening comment at the ECB forum to kick off the day coming up later on at 9 a.m. but the main panel discussions happening at 3 o'clock this afternoon okay but that being said let me hand you over to Sam you can look over some of the charts I can see equity futures under just a touch of pressure so with that I'll catch you in the chat room wish you a good day thanks guys hi guys hope everyone is doing well yeah you can just see across the middle of the screen here that that's leading the way is stopped in the US also falling would have a quick look over S&P just to begin with it's just touching the S1 for the day trend line starting on the low that we had back on the 12th broke through overnight and I think really since then you've had a bit of a continuation to the downside you see how well that was respected from from the beginning of the day on the on the 13th I should say sorry rather than the 12th but we have broken through and since then it has drifted lower to the upside you can see that break down from the previous low of today 2895 free quarters obviously a key level S1 really where we're trading now along with what was a previous high of the well a layer of resistance should we say on the 14th that's actually a support now as a pretty key point if we were to push through that S1 really would be the next level or key level to have monitored on the charts you can just see looking at the previous lows all from the 13th and then the 14th throughout the morning and afternoon pretty big zone to have marked up on the chart to the upside you can see if this trend line was to get retested we'd be looking at around really 2900 which has offered pretty good resistance over the the last few trading sessions we have chopped through a touch but it is also the high of the day to the tick today so another point and would have marked up on the chart you can see near that that high 2895 and free quarters key really the low of the day important now and of course any previous lows that we have broken through to the upside to offer possibly some resistance we'll keep an eye on the the DAX and other equity markets so they're just having a bit of a breather the pound yesterday knew lows for well certainly for a few weeks other than that flash crash low that we had back on the third of Jan nice break here of this trend line I didn't really get the retest but straight break through and really have drifted lower since then obviously to the upside would be having a look at the previous lows or any of the highs of the day is to a pointer to get in as a resistance for a drift lower a sentiment definitely favours this market to the downside you can see just again looking longer term just how low we we are and actually we are now obviously quite consistently here on this this daily chart combining all the futures contracts we are now below that that point and really we're trading at levels not seen since the beginning of 2017 so pound under significant pressure still sentiment not improving as of late having a look at the euro obviously the double bottom that we've had the beginning say the middle part of this month so not too long ago along with this Thursday the SIP I think it was has offered quite good support we're keeping a watch on this if we were to drift lower below here this is when it might start to get interesting really be looking here probably at the the Wednesday of this week with the Fed coming into into play there trend line you could have marked up from yesterday's lows it's have that drawn up this might be something to have marked up on the chart going into at the very end of the session break of that and then we could perhaps get a further further push to the downside but at the moment we are having a bit of a recovery the dollar under a touch of pressure obviously not really helping the pound too much to the upside yesterday's high and previous lows from Friday areas to have marked up one 1333 on the Friday low before that break down and a few ticks below that yesterday's high as well are one in the in the mix now as well just an area to have noted looking at the Aussie dollar you can see we have been drifting low those the rubbish comments from the RBA have only helped matters push to the downside despite a weaker dollar again looking here at the longer term chart you can see just how low we are and actually just have touched on the futures and just touching again the low of the year the Aussie there way to look at this I have a break of that level 6850 or really looking at any retracement points previous lows or areas where the sellers have just come back in to look for that to happen again wouldn't be too surprising to have an opportunity or two in this market as we are just hitting those lows again the end this morning supported we were talking yesterday about this the importance of and again I was putting on the longer term chart is the importance of what was the previous higher the 13th couple of tests of that another one yesterday morning held really well and we have pushed higher since breaking out of the range yesterday early this morning around 2 a.m. We have also found quite good resistance initially on what was the low of Friday morning as in today as well only to break through that gold is very similar to this market in that we have sort of broken above its range from yesterday and also for the end is keeping an eye on the top end of this range which is really the high that we had back on Friday gold you can see here breaking above yesterday's breaking out of that range and pushing on slightly more choppy you could argue trading now but what was quite a key level was the previous higher Friday then a breakdown point on Friday evening was also the higher of today so keeping a close look at the Friday high is an area of to retest and also the Asian session higher you would have marked up at 1345.5 as well I'm going to quick look over just stocks again you can see the deck still relatively near that low the S&P is testing its S1 and the low of yesterday as well as we speak NASDAQ just looking pretty similar in that we the area we were testing last night as an area support has been tested now as well oil just under a touch of pressure you can still see the importance really and drag this wider of around here 51 79 51 80 74 quite a key level support that I would have marked up just observing what happens around here break of that and it's still not necessarily gonna be the area where we do completely run down 51 61 also a point that I'd have marked up just where we had a previous high on the 13th as usual any questions please do let us know of course be on the mic throughout the day to see in a bit of dollar weakness across the euro the pound drifting towards the upside Aussie dollar under pressure because of the RVA and the yen supported as we're having a bit of risk off into the market I hope you have a good day ahead