 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now, pull free at 1-877-927-6648. Hello, the Chapman here, all this funding the 10th of January, beginning of a new week, and we're looking at the beginning of the new week seeing huge selling. Look, the dollars down 413 at $35,822. Right on the 50-period exponential moving average. That PD is probably going to have a down arrow saying, the data is now gone from a cell signal to a cell mode or in one move. And I spoke to subscribers to open the call about this doji candle. Is it going to be a one-to-one to the downside? Or is this where you get some kind of a reversal to the upside attempt? It is for a short-term balance. We haven't got the balance yet. Now we're looking at is the S&P. This is the S&P 500 trading down 71 and 4605. It just, this is still a leg A to the downside. If I have a chance during the show, I'll talk about these single legs down and what they can imply. But let's just see where we are in about 20 minutes, 30 minutes. If there is some kind of a balance, let's just look at the futures. Or is there some kind of a balance attempt? Well, the candle is not there. That's trough C, trough D, E, trough F we've got. And we'll see whether or not we can. Let me just put this in here. That's a D. That's an E and that's an F and a 10-minute chart. Let's just see what the one-minute chart is showing. Let's go there. Yep, there's the first attempt at a rally that might have a little bit of legs. We're at 45.99 off the bring down at 45.91 round number low. We're at 45.99, nine points above that. So what we need to see is that by the end of my show at 11 o'clock, the S&P, if it's going to have any kind of substantial rebound, and I'm only calling it a balance because we're in cell mode in all the indices, it needs to be trading at 46.13 to 46.15. Trading, I mean trading, holding it and using that as support as it keeps trying to bounce higher. So let's go back to our story here. We've got the QQQ. This is the index 100. I've been warning about this for quite some time. There's great vulnerability here and but it doesn't really show in the chart of the, of the, it does a little bit in the day, but not the weekly. Weekly has just gone from the upper boundary. Capital Wave, inside track, repalent loan down to the pro-palent loan, pro-palent zone. And now it's a tad under the 14 period moving average. I will see. I can just tell you that if at any point this week, there is a close below the low of four weeks ago, which is at 45. Let's see, 45.08. Let's just make that 45. Ah, 45.31. If there's a close under 45.30 at any point in the next week, that's going to be significant because what it's going to say is that now there's a really good chance that in January we get the kind of red candle that allows February to identify a peak B top in the monthly. And that's, that's a big possibility right now. And I'm going to go through other things. I get a lot of questions. I'll try to deal with it right now because we want to also look at the big picture. One of the reasons why we've raised so much cash. We have just core positions and we've lightened up even on those is because I, I've not liked this market for a little while. And we just been waiting and waiting to see how the Dow, which was the last one to make its high, starts to pull back. And now it's showing that it's, that the selling is coming in deep. I just want to show this here. Home Depot is part of the Dow. Look at this. Home Depot is down two and a half percent down 990 at 383. Now this is very interesting. You see this peak F at 420.61. HD is a symbol trading at 383.75 down 986. But at 420.61 on the 6th of December, it comes tumbling down to 380. And then it rallies. And I've been talking about these double top patterns that are so frequent. And there are so, there are, there are uncanny in the sense that the price goes to within pennies sometimes. In this case, the ad was within less than $3 of the all-time high. But then it makes this V-shaped pattern in the weekly chart and kabup. It comes tumbling down. So I have to consider that even Home Depot, great company in a great area of the market, building materials, appliances, home electronics, just the works. Pay and still name it is seeing a lot of selling. And one of the reasons is if you look at the HDX, and I show this to subscribers, I'm opening call over the weekend in my overview, 530.41 was the high back in early December. And then the third, fourth week of December, it goes to 531.14, less than a dollar higher, 70-something cents. And then look at this tumble. There's another double top. So we've got, this is the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index. You've got to respect when these things are occurring, one after the other, and we see the rotation start to impact the best of the best. I'm going to go to the estimators right now because it's all tied in. The estimators, because this rectangle formation, 318.82 was the high on the 22nd of November. This is a semiconductor ETF. And what does it do? It tumbles down to the 289 area and then rallies right back to 318.69 within pennies of its all-time high. And then it tumbles down and now it's about to take out the left side trough low. And that will be at 280, give it to you exactly, 288.14. We're already at 290, down 6.90. And yet, when you look at the overall pattern, it's just a little hiccup. It's just kind of ho-hum. So I had a couple of questions. One is, yes, it's all very well-trying attempt to short the estimators, but where would you put in a buy signal or a buy, a starter position for the much longer term? Since this is the area that if they are going to be higher highs in the monthly chart of the S&P in Leg B suggests there should still be a C and a D in the Chapman way methodology, surely that would be an area, as it always has been, that leads the market back up. Well, let's just be as brutally honest as possible with a chart pattern. This very much looks like distribution. And distribution suggests that big money is starting to pull out of longer term positions, possibly even positions that have been there for years sometimes. So we have to treat this with a lot of respect and say, well, let's, before we actually talk about buying, let's talk about what would incur the wrath of the estimators if what support level is key. But it's at a support level right now. But I would just suggest to you that any close under 278, which is a little bit down at 11 points, 12 points from where we are, a close below that would suggest now you're impacting the weekly chart. This looks like an isolated leg to the upside. They made a double top and is now about to give back at least into this ugly bar. Sorry, into this beautiful bar, I meant to say, of the 5th of November, a low of 272 and a high of 299. And that would be it. And what would suggest that it's going to do that? Because the middle of the bar is at about 285. If there is a close on a weekly basis below 285, it makes the rest of that candle highly vulnerable. You are decided decisively below before we really have. But wait a minute, the green line is still way above the foot. I need to talk about this. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years, a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC. Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. 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TFNN, educating investors. Thank you, Basel Trapp and here at Tiger Technicians Hour and also the author of the opening call, Dating Newsletter, where we've been raising cash and cash, cash, cash for a while now because we are anticipating that this market, the rotation is going through the different sectors and until today might be the day we get everything going down with almost the same percentages. We're getting closer and closer to some kind of at least test of good support. You've got to just be really careful. Now, what I am looking at here, I had a question in the den about TRT. I was actually thinking I was going to TLT, which is the bonds. This is TRT, Triptek International, trading at 9.30 down 65 since I did this the other day and I said it was made in the Chapman Wave. I don't know if I want to do this right now. There's a technique I've developed over the many, many years that I've had Chapman Wave methodology notation with peak D going to EF and maybe even a G but recycling. But I also learned no long time ago we used to have someone in the den who used to always look at currencies and the EUR, USD, the Euro used to so often make these tops where it went just fractionally. Just instead of leg D, it's stalled underneath the left side peak C and it confirmed a technique that I've been developing for years of a peak C1, C2 meaning that everything about it, the MACD, the Stochastic, just everything about it was suggesting that that could have gone one tick higher or two ticks higher to make it leg D. It didn't but everything about it was in fact the D that concludes or not just concludes but is the objective of a Chapman Wave buy signal to buy mode going to at least four higher peaks peak D. That's where you got to be a little careful and reassess. Now this became peak C1, C2. Just fractionally underneath the left side high of mid-December and now it's trading with a cup formation and it's gone more than one to one to the downside. And that says, so the question is where would I, I would like to, where did it go? Ten minutes and a fifth time. Oh, I thought I saw something about where would you get in? Let's see, I think you were and I'm sure I think you took profits. Yeah, so let me just do this. So at 930, the 50-period moving average is around about nine. I'm just going to suggest in this environment I'd be real careful because the decline has gone below the left side high that was really important back in November which was peak E at 11.08. And here we are at 9.38. So you have to consider that now the whole downside area of the eighth is going to be important to test and you've got the weekly chart of 14-period moving average of 8.66. I love this stock looking out, but at this particular point I don't want to do anything other than to say to you. I think you're actually out. You had profits and I'm not sure. I would hold off a little bit. I'm just going to cover the same question I had you about. Invidia, I've been talking about it as fading off to the 319 round number low on the 22nd making a 346.47 high, making lower lows and lower highs and that it looked like it had gone to a cell mode in the daily. Yes, but now it's confirming that the arch formation that I call the dreaded H in the weekly chart trading at 258 down 14 has now confirmed that the weekly chart has gone into a cell mode and I'm not changing this. I'm calling this a peak F in the monthly chart. So this was one of your leaders and that's the reason why I'm saying I know that over the years buying the semiconductors on any major pullback was absolutely the rigour. That was the thing to do. I'm saying this might be the change. I would hold off. You could nibble at some point, but please just to have a little patience and the reason I say that is because if invidious source to trade under the high that was made the week of the 3rd of September of 233.43 I mean trade under that for a couple of days. That's suggesting that you're going to have even maybe a chance of a head and shoulders pattern. I just wouldn't be there on the long side yet. Yes, a little later on maybe. It is a great company, but now I think it's being the test is coming now of the whole semiconductor area. So with that said, let's go to the next. Oh, that was also advanced micro devices. Advanced micro devices. Also this right now we're looking at it at a lower low with a dreaded H pattern in the daily. It could have a balance, but it would only be a balance based on the weekly chart saying that the H pattern is alive and well and that at 128 right now down three and a half. There's a good chance that that 164 level will not the all-time high made in the end of November will not be seen for quite a while. In fact, not even the 153 155 area of the recent balance because this one looks like it really needs more time to digest even if it goes sideways. Next question I had was NKE. I'm skipping some of the things I usually do. NKE they're all in the same pattern. Look at this dreaded H. NKE had a gap up reversal and now it's had a huge gap down, massive gap down at 150.44 down 654 and it means that the rectangle formation in the weekly chart has 144.37 is absolutely major support in the weekly chart below that and it even impacts a peak D in the in the monthly chart. So I'm taking this very seriously this decline. Next question I had. So let me I have to I've lost my rhythm. I'm getting back to the rhythm and the rhythm says you've gone. You haven't done the IWM. IWM the Russell 2000 is down at 100 212 gap down. There's the H pattern holding a little bit better than the others. Did the one-to-one breakout of falling exclamation into the 226 level could not get to 228 which I said was imperative. In fact it's pulling back and now what we're looking at is there's a real good chance that the low of 209 208.76 the low of the 20th. If that is taken out that's the story that I always talk about in the rectangle formation. Let's just do that now because it's so important. There's so many patterns like this. Let me show you the rectangle formation has been going on a lot longer than you would have expected. Certainly a lot longer than your patients. 234 there was the high back in April. 207 was the low just two weeks later. And then we're looking at just trading sideways. Eventually it goes to PKP C1 C2 pulls back sharply to the support of 207 207 21. And then bam it goes to leg D above the rectangle. What's my rule with the rectangle formation especially the narrow rectangle formation. Eventually it comes down and retests the low and it could even break the low and then make a sign wave as it just trades up and down in between the big rectangle. So 212 just be careful to close under 206 at any point in the next week and a half on the weekly chart would say oh oh the IWM is under tremendous pressure and that does make that a peak D in the monthly chart. Let's go to another seminal. How are you? Good morning Basil. I'm great. Thank you. So you're going to take a closer look at the IEF. I was wondering if you did that. Yes I did. Just to remind me the symbol is not IEM but IE. IEF. What's the last symbol? IE Frank. IEF. Okay yep I got it right here. And I did look at it and I was talking about that turn line that had a hole which is broken. I'll be back in a moment. IEF is the treasury bond. Are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com On with Earl and Sonal and what we're all looking at I have a great question in the can Basil perhaps this week you can discuss the different 50 and how it relates to today. There's a lot of stuff that over the weekend I was doing and I'm also reading a book that's just a fascinating book goes back to all the bankers in Paris in 1880-1990 area and 1900s. Just so many things are starting to tie end because a big question came in last week could you start talking about the Coder phase that you always talk about. Yeah, I will talk about that. It was interrupted of course by COVID and that interruption has almost created a restart. So that also takes me right to those questions about the iShares 7 to 10 year Treasury bond ETF training at a low of 112.48 and the reason why I wanted to bring this up is when I was looking at it I can't remember if it was during what we were talking last week or two weeks ago I was talking about support and I said it's nick the one support level but it's bounced back over it again but you can see from Friday's Thursday actually into this morning look how it's plunged underneath the upper trendline and the lower trendline rising trendline and that means if this pattern that I normally call let me make this pink this is the weekly chart let me make this green what I normally call inside track propellant zone or buy zone we've just gone right through it and because it closed sharply under it last week now I can say for the entire week 114.10 report that it has to close above this week if it wants to save the day but really what we're looking at is and remember Earl we said looking at the TBT is ready the way to go that's the inversion of the TLT so I don't see any change except it is an old egg dean that says you know what it's just a tad overboard therefore you could get some kind of a bounce in bonds and the fields can just pull back a little bit but the major work has been done to say that if I put in A now this is a technique that I do visually you could notate it but I like to do this visually if you go to the TBT and I know you'll look at this very closely and you'll look at the narrow range of the weekly chart you can just go to the week of the 23rd of July and go to the high of 17.91 and the low of 1668 and you can see that no matter where it's gone above and no matter where it's gone below it keeps coming back into that level and that says that in this particular pattern if the TBT this is the weekly chart starts to trade any week on a mean trade that means a daily chart if it starts to close any 2 out of 3 sessions above and let me put that in right here that would be the high that was made of 1903, 1901 yep 1903 so if there's a close on a weekly basis in the TBT above that 19 let's say 1910 which is really quite far away it's at 1842 right now it's going to take a little bit of work because it's on the 200-period moving average in the in the daily chart at 1787 and it's trading at 1842 you could see a wiggle and just a kind of a yo-yo pattern here if there is any strength at all in bonds so that would take the TLT so I'm trying to cover as many areas as possible so that we're talking apples to apples so the TLT which is the 20 year or greater Treasury bond fund it's not the 7 or 10 but it is the 20 year that it is at this point stuck in a range and if the TLT at any point 141.45 starts to trade under 142 out of 3 sessions in the daily chart that's going to impact yields even more so and I just wanted to show this is what I showed subscribers to my opening call over the weekend I always show it on the weekend I'll show it now so this is if I can find it right there the white is the 30 year TYX yield the brown is the TNX 10 year yield and the cyan one comes up is the FVX 5 year yield and look at the speed and the strength the momentum the torque of the 5 year if I can come up hello 1, 2, 3 here we go and as soon as you see the cyan colored one come on must be a busy day out there it's coming here we go so as soon as you see that look at that 5 year which has gone from now not many things are used for the 5 year but I like it as an indicator the 5 year was once at 1.92 that's 0.19 percent and it's trading right now at 15.40 1.54 that is a massive move but when you're talking historically and you go back to the 1980s and many of us know that from the 1980s mortgage rates could have been anywhere between 15 and 17 even 18 percent so this is nothing but it is having an impact let me see why am I not getting this let me just get that there it goes so we're down on wood the ice shares Global Timber and Forestry ETF and sharply down from the high of last week in the HGX Philadelphia Housing Sector Index so you can see I would not treat anything right now as just kind of a a little blip nothing to worry about I think there's plenty to worry about here and one of the reasons why I am quite concerned is that the IEF which you pointed out to me that move below the 200 period moving average which is way at 115.72 suggests that there could be a bounce to the 113.63 area but then we've got to be really careful that it doesn't make another arch formation and that would be that really would be tough and one of the things that I'm talking about now saying that there is a chance that we have a little bit of a bounce in the in the T in the bonds so that yields can pull back a little bit is because if you look at the XLF which is at a spectacular move the gap up rally from the 37s and it went to peak APP, PPC and yes leg D a red candle but making a new recovery high of 41.46 and now pull back to 40.82 so in that regard I'm just looking at this and saying let's keep our eye on how the financials respond to what's going on with the bond market at this particular point that helps you my question was what I'm wondering is that if we get a severe market pullback is the bonds safe even oh thank you so much for bringing that up because for decades you would hear me saying when the market pulls back and all the darlings start to decline sharply money invariably migrates from the volatility of equities into the so called safety of bonds not this time so that's thank you for bringing it up because I had mentioned it about a week and a half ago I think I brought it up last week but I didn't make a big deal about it to say this is the first time that we're actually not seeing money come out of stocks and going to the safety of bonds so that says there is something a little different hold on a second because there's something else I wanted to show you and that's J and K is the part of the bond market 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its course trade labu or labd directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear etf visit directioninvestments.com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the fund are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv well folks we're back so what we're looking at here and let me just ask the question the important question right now is are you still there yes I am so I just wanted to mention to you the impact that we're seeing here in the bond market is really is really is really full trading through all the different sectors and if you look at JNK which is the junk bond is called the Barclays high yield bond it made a peak C- it made a peak D and then an E in this double top the pattern I've been talking about that impacts so many charts it doesn't matter what the even if there's no connection whatsoever the pattern is the same and here it is it made a high back in the week of the 9th of July at 110.10 pulls back sharp to 108 and then it goes to a high of 110.12 I mean really 110.10 110.12 2 cents and then it plunges and now it's down to 106 and this is the Barclays high yield bond fund so that's not a good sign in suggesting that if on the left side double bottom low same thing as a top it made a double bottom low and we've seen a number of these in different markers 106.48 on the 1st of December 106.48 the oh so that is a D yeah ABC yeah that's still a C on the 1st of December and the 26th of December so what we're looking at here is at 106.66 right now the arch formation if it starts to close decisively in the 105 area or under 105 wow that's going to impact the yields even more so all I can say is that within the context of the yields just right now we've seen the greatest impact and I wouldn't be surprised if in two weeks time we started to see some kind of a stabilization and then yields started to come down a little bit but in the shorter term we've got to watch these levels very closely so I hope that helps you yes but what I was going to say is the 10 year note in less than a month has gone from 140 to 180 so that that is almost like a stock that's a T and X dot X here we go yeah and it's gone to leg D and this is I mean moves like this besides being kind of abrasive to the market it just confuses the market completely it is also saying in the monthly basis you've now got a leg C in the 10 year in the monthly and it's in a buy signal where it's a 78% in the stochastic if it was an 82% I'd feel much more confident saying that it's in a buy mode in the monthly chart everything about the 9-speed moving average really looks like it wants to tackle at some point in the first part of 2022 the high that was made it's 1971 1.971 back in November of 2019 so that's kind of what I'm looking at right now and that is going to impact the market it just says that you can now get very strong balances in the market if you get this combination of some kind of a low not only will you have to get the VIX much much higher the volatility index to get a turnaround this is now we could rally again for a few weeks but he has the VIX at 23 in leg B in the daily chart if it closes anywhere in the 23s today that's going to say watch out for Tuesday but if it is able to pull back to 22.65 by the end of the day that's at least a little bit of a comfort but if it closes near this high that's not so good so yeah we're looking at so many things just to say look it's about time that the market had a pullback that took in other areas like the semiconductors like the areas that were really good and I think that's healthy I don't think it's a bad thing are you too good thank you bad no thank you very much for calling always appreciated bye thank you so that's early in seminal now we're looking at question came in a couple of questions the one question that I've been thinking about for the last two three weeks and I've been trying to do that for my subscribers to my opening call with a very long 45 minutes to an hour it's almost like a webinar for my video overview on the weekend and the question came in a couple of questions over the last week but certainly even today in Tiger YouTube hi Basil are you planning on doing a webinar anytime soon yes I am I thought I'd cover a lot during my I thought I'd cover a lot during my during my videos my overview video on the weekends but there are a lot of technical things that I'd like to go through and listen where we are and what we're looking at chart patterns coming into the next two weeks I don't know when but absolutely I'm thinking about it I had a really busy schedule and I'll set away from my eye to heal a little bit which is actually not the eye but it's the forehead and everything's coming back just to normal so let's go to Sharky and the Den hi Sharky how are you good morning Basil I got a little over to a scratchy throat here but I just want to look at the QQQs and see where we could potentially be headed in that area and the SMH if this is really breaking here and then some of the Shark vehicles for that or have they just gotten out of out of town and missed the train on them and just your thoughts on all that Basil okay so this is what we're looking at here the QQQ the index 100 which has a number of components that are very important not just the fact that it's the QQQ the MDX 100 you've got Apple which Apple is in the Dow Apple is in the Q Apple is in the SMT and yes Apple just about to take out the left side low in an arch formation 182.13 was the high back in December on the 4th of January what does it do it goes to 182.94 I mean I've been talking about this for months I've been saying watch these double tops they're not just a clue but they are pure evidence of resistance and the rolling over the corrective process so here we are in the arch formation and we'll use that just for the moment to say look Apple is a fantastic company Apple is in a fantastic situation right now there's just a dozen points or so maybe 20 points no less than that where can it go well you know it could have a pretty decent a reversal that takes time as well as some price so the whole 160 to 155 area so that's going to impact the QQQ it's going to impact the Dow but just to look at the Q's themselves that leg G says C in the monthly chart leg G and I was going to use Home Depot as I had questions about where in using the alternate count where does a G fail to go G slash C to a D but is absolutely a G top well this is going to become one because the weekly chart is at G I didn't even put the alternate count because I felt strongly that this was going to be a double top of some duration whether it's just short term or long term I'm not sure but in the weekly chart and yeah we are under support now we can start talking about what will be the major support area sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives 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$100,000 invested or $7,000 per a year on a secured Tiger First mortgage the Tiger First mortgage program may be just the program for you the Tiger First mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 this segment is brought to you by thinkorswim for more information just click the thinkorswim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Hi folks we're back and we're back with Sharky looking at the QQQ's so in my chapter we've automated levels for support in the QQQ I actually don't have until we hit come come what's going on there it is 370.05 and today's lowest 369.31 that's the first one in the daily I don't have in the 120 minute chart I have 345.69 in the weekly nothing yet until 3 oh just way down in the monthly chart in the 347 level so those are the levels I'm looking at at any point you can get a nice balance you'll be very strong resistance if there was more than a balance but in the meantime I'm starting to look at the weekly chart I don't I have all these resistance levels look at these beautiful resistance levels right at the highs and I have very little in the way of support and that means it needs a little time to start building the numbers at the bottom so I'm just looking at this and I would just have to say to you having closed if this week it closes underneath you could close under 370 let's call it 370 4 I'd actually like to say 370 3 then there's a chance we're going to get a one to one to the downside and that would take it for a test on the left side low 350 that's a that's a long way down 20 points but it might take a couple of weeks to do that or it could be a couple of days you never know but that's kind of what I'd be looking at for the full arch formation in a weekly chart most importantly by Friday for whatever reason I don't care what it is if there's just a sudden trigger for a strong bounce if the cues manage to even touch 386 to 388 that is really impressive action and that says you're now using more time than price but if this weakness continues in tomorrow it's going to be price and time hope that helps you yeah yeah that helps thanks very much and I need some tickets to Hawaii or something and look after your car thank you for calling so folks that was on 548 watch out you don't want to fix