 Welcome to the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday, September 30th I'm Chief Meteorologist John Innsworth for Lama Public Media. We start out with a full moon on Friday Spooky and what's kind of neat is depending on you know time zone at your national date line and little things like that We in many places get another full moon off on a Halloween so at the very end of the month if You get two full moons in one month. That's sort of colloquially called a blue moon So something happens once in a blue moon will happen for some people in October Taking a look at drought not much has changed from the previous week You take a look at areas around Colorado Springs You see they got a little bit of rainfall relief down there for the roasted state estate largely unchanged With extreme drought over much of the western part of the state Looking across the nation Eastern US doing fine Western US having the problems the areas outlining black have more of the long-term drought Problems settling in and that includes most of Colorado The last seven days rainfall has been very light less than a tenth of an inch Few spots close to a quarter inch out on the plains, but very light showers at all And of course looking at smoke. We have this Gigantic trough that we'll look at in the upper air map in a moment of the eastern US has bringing very clean air from the Arctic region and pull a region down Clean to the nation the ridges building in the west coast and so Air flow has become stagnant again under the neat that high and the ridge So the smoke is beginning to pool up there locally the Cameron peak fire Just on Tuesday night seems to have flared up turn the moon red. We have that plume going right over So this is probably on undone under done There's more smoke coming in take a look at Thursday morning Some of the smoke is starting to leak out of the ridge coming down the Northwest flow and our local fires Maybe doing a little bit more as well So here's that giant West Coast Ridge. It's been around for months. It's been the cause of the fires and the extreme heat Phoenix I guess has had its second largest number of 100 degree plus days Of course, we are setting new record for the number of 90 degree plus days But with a trough here of the Midwest and East we're getting due North flow on Tuesday By Thursday noon, the highs gonna migrate from Oregon down into Nevada Get a little bit of a tilt a little more in Northwest flow here Which means any little ripple coming along will be able to bring in a weak cool front knocking off 10 degrees or so from our previous day high Had to find a different GFS ensemble The one I go to a weather 5280 seems to have broken about half a week ago So our low highs and lows normals drop from 72 to 69 over the next 10 days And for lows 42 down to 40. So our lows you're about to go Normally into the 30s, but you can see the temperatures are still remaining above normal felt this period not Extreme 90s, but definitely some heat still That's because the ridges and felt far away and rain is nothing. These are clouds down here Not smoke just normal clouds If you look way out at Sunday, you'll see the high which is around Oregon and to Nevada This is migrated down to southern Arizona and the ridge axis itself has moved from the west coast over to Utah Wyoming, so it's getting closer. We'll see the temperatures rising again still this giant trough is hanging on over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and Mississippi Valley Over the next 10 days the GFS doesn't give us anything. I guess I see like a little blockiness here of Under point zero five inches in the foothills, but it's so hard to see. It's not much So looking over the next seven days Our first cool front comes in Wednesday night cooling us into the 60s We rebound close to 80 on Friday another cold front for Friday night max us down for Saturday We're still kind of cool Sunday, and we see 80s come back as that ridge Starts to inch towards our state again And we're normal high down at 70 so this is 12 degrees or so above normal lows at night in the 30s and 40s really almost a Negligible if I could speak a chance of rain over this time before we go let's take a look at the ENSO the El Nino Southern Oscillation and this is the Sea surface temperature anomaly, so this is how Unusually cool for the blues or unusually warm for the reds and oranges the Pacific is Give you some landmarks here here is Mexico Central America and South America over here This is Australia and this lower left and This is the equator going right down the middle, and this is a classic La Nina signature when you get the cold water here means that the easterly winds at the equator blowing a little stronger than normal Creating more upwelling on this side of the ocean moving all the warm water over to this side of the ocean Taking a look at October 2019 up through September. We've gone from abnormally warm to abnormally cool. So we're definitely settling into a La Nina event and the Temperature probabilities going through the end of the year. This is October November December with La Nina settling in and the other sea surface temperature indices Has above normal temperatures for the Iraqi mountains And much of the nation For precipitation below normal for the southern states and some above normal in the Pacific Northwest from our local News take a look at longmontleader.com also more frequent weather updates there I've been chief meteorologist John insworth for all my public media. Keep looking up