 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Sonnes and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com where today we are taking a look at some Super Bowl 56 futures with Nick Costos of you better you bet getting his favorite thoughts there and some values he likes in that Super Bowl market. My name is Jim Sonnes. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang. You'd find his work over at thepowerrank.com and find him on Twitter at thepowerrankeded busy couple of weeks. You were in Vegas. You've got Betbash going on tonight. I had the FanDual FanFest in Denver where I said to bet the under on the Broncos win total and had stuff thrown at me on a stage. So we're we're cooking with gas here. It is it is August and we are loving life. How you doing? I'm doing great. Yeah, I'm doing really busy. I'm doing really good. I am very busy. We are all very busy. If you don't work in sports like August is by far the busiest time getting ready for a football season. Football season obviously matters the most in the American sports world. So and of course I made it all the busier by planning two trips right back to back these past two weeks. But Vegas was awesome. It's kind of nice to not be wearing a mask and in a casino doing the episode this week like I was last week. But that was kind of fun with the atmosphere being in the South Point Casino. And then as soon as we're done recording here, I'm headed to Newark for Betbash, which can't possibly not be a good time. So I'm looking forward to that as well. And you know, maybe maybe by mid September, my heart rate will have settled down and get on the football season. What's on your schedule for Betbash? Show up. Hang out. No. Yeah, I don't know. Let's see. I'm having dinner with some people going to Betbash. I think I'm supposed to do a live recording with with hops and props, a podcast that that I've been on before. And then yeah, I don't know who knows where the night will lead. But we'll see. Well, cool. I hope that goes well. Fan to a fan fest was a blast. That was a power field in Denver. We did a sports betting panel. Lisa Kearney hosted. And then Aaron Dolan, who we've had in the show and live mood. So we've had the show as well. Olivia Moody. We did a panel with them and talk through our futures, which maybe I shouldn't have been. I mean, like I don't I'm never going to say like something dishonest. But like maybe I shouldn't have been like as certain that the Broncos would go under eight and a half. But like, you know, there are also not a lot of Cowboys fans in the crowd. So that didn't fly super well either. But like, it was fun, man. I got to we got to see the chain smokers after I've never listened to change smokers that much. But like, it was free. It was fun. I had a blast. It was great. That's awesome. Yeah. So you go into the Rockies game. Yep. And there wasn't there some like football throwing competition in the parking lot the next day or something on Sunday. So that was yeah, that was that was on Sunday. I didn't do the football pass. Because you know, I got a like Matt Nagy, three cone a couple years ago in the precinct, they got to keep that under locks and no one knows how good I am throwing football is obviously it's not because I played offensive line and can't throw worth a darn. It's definitely because I got to keep it a secret. I did a pit crew competition. They have like a NASCAR tire there. He tried to like unscrew the lug nuts. I was terrible. So this is why I bet on NASCAR and don't work on a pit crew. But I wanted a second shot didn't have time to get there. I'm hoping they do another one and I can try it again because it was pretty embarrassing. But either way, it was fun. Yeah, I hope that batch is fun as well. Hope that Vegas went well. It's a very busy time of year for us also busy time of year for Nick Costos. We're gonna talk with him in just a bit get his thoughts on Super Bowl 56 and some futures find Nick on Twitter at the Costos. He is of course the host of you better you bet on Odyssey. You can find a lot of different places right now. So we'll talk to Nick about that. Talk to Nick about his thoughts on this upcoming year. Of course, we've had a bunch of NFO previous already. We had Edward E. Gross on wind totals last week. Aaron Dolan, we talked about before, talked about divisional outrides, JJ Zacharias and talk player props of us. We also drew Martin on talking to the college football next week, college football week one week zero is this week. So maybe some more college coming up in the near future. So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and search for covering the spread on Apple podcast, Spotify, Stitcher, wherever you get your podcast, you can find us and while you're there, leave us a rating and review as well. We'll talk to Nick in just one second. At first a sports fans. Fandal is offering an exclusive promotion for new sportsbook users. Join Fandal Sportsbook today and make your first bet. If you lose, we'll give you a refund up to $1,000 in site credit within 72 hours. Your first bet after depositing will qualify. If you have multiple selections on one bet slip, it'll be the first selection you made head over to Fandal Sportsbook today and place your first bet. Must be 21 plus and present Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. New users only max refund $1,000 site credit. See full terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem called 100 gambler in Colorado 105 to 247 hundred in Iowa 1 800 bets off in Indiana 1 800 9 with it for confidential help in Michigan 1 800 2 707 1 1 7 in Tennessee. Call or text the red line at 1 800 8 9 9 7 8 9 or in West Virginia 1 800 gambler dot net covering the present. Let's bring Nick Costos into covering the spread of toxin Super Bowl 56 futures with the season just around the corner. Nick, I know it is a crazy time of year for you. How you hanging in there giving everything that's going on right now. Oh man, you just got to you got to push through. You got to make it happen. This is this is this is it. This is the time of year with all apologies to you know, the NCAA tournament, the NBA playoffs, baseball, etc. There's nothing like football season and football season like I say on you better you bet is on nine, which is like a really fancy way of saying it's like right around the corner. So yeah, really excited and ready to go week one Sunday, September 12 Thursday, September 9 very exciting and just can't wait for the games to start because we've been talking about this set of 16 games for what seems like an eternity. Right. And you know, we talk about offseason. We use that word but I feel like for you there hasn't really been one because you better you bet it's been like blowing up. You've got stuff expanding to announcements all the time. What are the past couple of months been like for you with it seeming like you're kind of everywhere right now. Yeah, it's cool. And I appreciate you saying that and yeah, like it's been great with Odyssey, you know, you better you bet as well as the show hasn't expanded, but like that QL has expanded the bet QL network and the company's commitments to like to to sports betting right so expanding to a bunch of different markets with the plan being for us to continue to expand to different markets. They've got a lot of cool plans and like I'm not trying to make it seem like I'm like like like holding the plans to the Death Star at bay here. It's not like it's anything earth shattering, but there's lots of cool stuff that we've got on the hopper coming up for the start of the season. So it's really fun for me personally. I don't think it's that much of a change. You know, I get asked sometimes and I don't say this braggadociously just the truth like hey, like what's your preparation life for your show and I say like hey like I get up in the morning like I love sports just like you guys do like I'm sure the listeners do like we get up and we're into sports whether it's baseball basketball the NHL playoffs college basketball NFL college football soccer golf. I like all this stuff. So for me it's not really that big of a change because I'm following this stuff anyway. So I would say it's not really that much of a change. Well that's good. I'm glad to hear that because we are gearing up for what should be a fun point in the year as well. It's it's busy but it's a fun busy. I'll take a fun busy every day of the week. Now let's talk about some training camp here Nick because we've got training camp info. We've gotten some news out there and I think one of the tougher things is always trying to balance how much should we care about this stuff. So has anything occurred outside of injuries because I think those are obvious outside of injuries during training camp that has altered your view of a team entering this year. Can I give you instead of training camp? Can I give you like preseason instead? And I want to use a team as an example here. I think my opinion of the Jets has been altered here by a couple different things. The first would be the the season ending injury suffered by Carl Lawson I think is like a major deal and like we talked about this on You Better You Bet. Like as far as like the spread of a game I don't know that Carl Lawson is a spread impact player where he doesn't play in a game and the line moves right. I don't know he's not like Aaron Donald in that respect right. But I think that on this defense given like the lack of other talent that they've got on the defense in order for this defense to be successful I kind of think you needed that combination of Lawson and Quentin Williams on the defensive line. So I think you know even with Robert Sala there and I think you saw this with Sala in San Francisco this isn't even a knock on Sala like when when all the good players were healthy that defense was absolutely awesome and when some of these players got hurt the defense wasn't as good. Like I think that would be the case with a lot of great coaches in the National Football League. Like it's hard to win with Belichick 1-7 and 9 last year with that Patriots team right. Even the best coaches can struggle when you don't have the talent there. So I think that that Lawson injury is a big deal again. Maybe not unlike makes you want to bet a season underwind total or like that. But I think and I will get to kind of what I mean with my the way the difference that I look in the Jets here. But I think it plays a big deal in terms of game by game in the individual handicaps. And on the flip side there you know I don't know that Zach Wilson is going to step in and be you know Peyton Manning in 1998 with the passing yards or what we saw Justin Herbert be last year. But I also think he's he's been awesome in the preseason and I know it's been against backups but like he's showing a lot of poise. He's got an absolute cannon. I look at Corey Davis and I'm like this guy's the Julio Jones in this offense. Now he's not as good as Julio but in the Shanahan LaFleur offense here he's going to get a billion targets. Elijah Moore is going to be back at some point. Like I like Michael Carter like if Bacchai Bechton wore himself into shape with Ali Vera Tucker on the left side of that line here. What I'm getting at here is like I think the Jets are going to be an over team this year. At least to start the year and I don't mean over in terms of win total. I mean over in terms of points scored in their games. So like week one against the Panthers. You guys tell me how like that should be the second lowest total of the week. When there's so much unknown with both teams with the Panthers with Sam Darnold and this new offense with Joe Brady with with the new quarterback in Darnold and then with the Jets with the new rookie quarterback in the new offensive scheme here. How that total can be 43 is beyond me here. So I'm sure the market can adjust as time goes on here but at least early in the season. Like that's one example I would say where I have seen something in training camp or the preseason where I'm like okay this kind of did change the way I look at a team heading into the year. Yeah it'll be interesting to see what the the rookie quarterback can do. I mean there are always doubts about that. Nick I wanted to ask you more about how you're viewing kind of long-term bets right. It's not 2020 we don't have the mass uncertainty that we had last year but 2021 we still have some uncertainties with the pandemic. How is your confidence level embedding season long wind totals champion futures division odds so on and so forth. I kind of like trying not think about that I just think it's such like in a well it's I don't even mean to be glib when I say that I just think it's like such an impossible thing. Right. To handicap I mean like you know we're a year plus into COVID and I still feel like there's like so much unknown. It's you know I have a friend who's the husband had it sleeps in the same bed with his wife wife never got COVID like they both got tested like that's the thing that happens that may be abnormal like for what a lot of people have experienced but my point is that I guess we don't know right. So I think it's like I know people want to say oh well you know Kirk Cousins for example or like the Cam Newton situation at Patriots Camp like unvaccinated players whatever. I just feel like we just we don't know and I'm not willing to make that a part of my handicap and I just don't know. So I am maybe foolishly maybe we come to the end of the season and I'm like man like this cost me some money here kind of look like an idiot it's possible. So it wouldn't be the wouldn't be the first time it wouldn't be the won't be the last you know but I I'm trying like to not make it a part of my handicap and just because I just feel like who the hell knows what could happen. It could happen it could not happen so I'm kind of operating under the assumption that things will be kosher which obviously they probably won't be but who the hell knows where like the bomb is going to go off so to speak maybe that's a bad analogy but I think you understand what I'm saying. Does it impact your willingness to bet the futures market in general given that we actually like you said we don't know how to impact stuff. Are you betting futures at the same rate as you did previously have you scaled back scaled up maybe even potentially or is it pretty much a status quo for you. Yeah I think it's probably about about the same as what I've got I feel pretty good about a bunch of them here I oh let's all talk about the Vikings for a second like look obviously the Vikings are really interesting because we've barely seen cousins play in the pre-season in the first two games and when we did he was getting sacked by a quitty pay of the Indianapolis Colts. The backups from Minnesota are like not striking fear in the hearts of anybody like maybe Kellen Mond like can turn into something but Jake Browning is absolutely terrible he's awful right. So if I like Minnesota's win total of nine because I feel like at worst like you push on that bet. Detroit's obviously going to be bad like by design I think they're going to be bad. Chicago's offensive line is so brutal that I don't think it matters who they start a quarterback like I would like to be bullish on them with fields but the line is absolutely terrible so it's hard to feel good about them. Vikings are getting so many pieces back on defense you know the Daniel Hunter chief among them here you know the offensive line in theory should be better than it's been in the Kirk Cousins era once they get Christian Dara saw back the first ground pick from injury the left tackle. So I feel like at worst you kind of like push Vikings over nine but I mean if cousins is going to miss time and it's like Katelyn Mond or Jake Browning like they're in big trouble so you know like I acknowledge that that's maybe I should kind of take it more into consideration but maybe foolishly I'm kind of operating on to the assumption that we're going to see Cousins and these guys play the full season and whatever happens happens but like that's that's one that I like and I say I'd say I have about the same amount of futures that's right now. Okay perfect so that's that's good to know so let's talk about some Super Bowl futures then talk about some teams you may be on for this year but I think before we talk about who you want to bet we've talked about who you can bet because not every team has the upside to win the Super Bowl like there is a limited number of teams at least in my mind who can actually do it. So to you Nick when you're looking at the landscape for this year how many teams like you know to be exact but like roughly how many teams do you reach the threshold of being a viable Super Bowl contender in 2021. Alright so I think let's include like theoretical upside right in this conversation so these are teams that are maybe not like valued highly now to potentially win a championship but teams that I think would have the theoretical upside to win a Super Bowl championship. So we can kind of go by division in the AFC East Buffalo obviously. I also think the Dolphins theoretical upside is to win a Super Bowl if two is awesome like I think on average the Patriots win more regular season games than Miami but I think that Miami's ceiling is higher than New England's because of the ceiling of two at the top of Iowa in year number two in this offense with all the weapons they've got so again like I'm I'm actually saying that I think it's more likely if you play the regular season out like a hundred times the Patriots would have more wins than the Dolphins but I don't think the Patriots can win a Super Bowl and I think the Dolphins upside if two is great which I think is a reasonable possibility that the Dolphins upside is to win a Super Bowl. So Buffalo and Miami Baltimore and Cleveland I think in the AFC North I don't think Pittsburgh upside is to win a championship this year. Defense will regress offensive line is bad. I don't think any team in the AFC South can reasonably do it. I don't think Tennessee's defense is good enough AFC West chargers and chiefs like the chargers theoretical upside is definitely to win a Super Bowl not saying that they're going to be better than Kansas City but like things break right they could potentially go on a deep playoff run. Denver's interesting because I think if they end up like if reports are true and like we've seen them play a lot of like heavy personnel in the preseason so if they decide to play like two tight ends the Phantom Alberto they got a lot of depth on defense defense should be good and Teddy's going to be the starter and like they're going to play ball control and not try and turn the ball over and lean on their defense I think Denver becomes a lot more interesting but we can leave Denver out just because I don't think Locke and Teddy kind of have that upside to win a championship. I don't think any team in the AFC East does probably just the Packers in the NFC North just the Bucks in the NFC South and I guess like you could say three teams in the NFC West just for the sake of conversation. Russ I think elevates Seattle to that level the Rams I don't think we'll get there but theoretically could and obviously the 49ers I think ceiling is to get to a Super Bowl championship as well so I think that's your your bucket of teams to choose from. So you still feel pretty good about the night I mean you know I think the vast majority of those teams have a solid situation at the quarterback position you know the two that don't are Denver and San Francisco so you feel like there's enough upside I mean I like both those teams on I like particularly Denver on the defensive side of the ball but maybe with the Niners how much does a quarterback controversy maybe get you off that take. Well I just yeah I just want to say about Denver like I don't I just think Denver becomes more interesting like as I can overteam potentially or like week one against the Giants is a road favorite here if it's Teddy and they're going to kind of change the way they play as opposed to last year when it's lock slinging it around to throw in tons of picks so I don't think Denver is upside as to win a Super Bowl this year with the quarterback situation but like I do think they become a lot more interesting if it's Teddy and they kind of change the way they play with San Francisco the quarterback controversy doesn't really move me off them at all I think what we've seen with San Francisco and this is kind of proven to be true in like the whole Kyle Shanahan era they get in trouble when a quarterback gets hurt and then it's like CJ Bethard or like Nick Mullins so I think they ride Jimmy Garoppolo until the wheels fall off either until Jimmy sucks or until Jimmy gets hurt and then Trey Lance comes in and then like you know and it adds like a different dimension here now the game I think at moments I know that Twitter is kind of like Goo Goo Gaga for Lance and for Justin Fields and for the other rookie quarterbacks and I understand that Lance's fastball is unbelievable man like he made some throws in the preseason this weekend that are like oh my god like holy bleep throws from Lance the athleticism is obviously there but you know we had on you better you bet this week two guys that have forgotten more about football than I'll ever know Brian Baldinger and Michael Lombardi I want to see NFL insiders and they say like the game right now is moving a little fast for Trey Lance so I don't think it's the worst thing in the world if Jimmy ends up starting plays until either like he stinks like and Kyle's like I've had enough or if he gets hurt which we don't want to happen but has happened with Jimmy Garoppolo in the past and and kind of incomes Trey Lance so I kind of look at the 49ers as like they've got a fallback plan this year in case things go awry at the quarterback position whether it's Lance starts and Lance can't get the job done and in comes Jimmy G or vice versa so I actually feel pretty good about the Niners either way as we head into the season yeah I think that boosts their floor a lot and they've shown in the past day of the ceiling when things are right like Jimmy Garoppolo has been an above average from an efficiency perspective above average quarterback in this system he's not went to the Super Bowl yeah they had a lead going into the fourth quarter two years ago in the Super Bowl like I'm not saying overthrow and their Super Bowl champions yeah and that's a really bad overthrow obviously but I know that I know that we all we all recognize that but yeah I mean I'm not saying Jimmy G's great or that he has the ceiling of Trey Lance like he doesn't like Lance is going to be the guy obviously probably sooner rather than later and that's what it should be but uh but it's not like Jimmy's a loser you know like he gets hardly throws some bad passes sometimes but man like he did go to a Super Bowl a couple years ago like I don't think that can be discounted yeah exactly so I think that their range of outcomes is good and I think that that I would agree with you that the ceiling is there where they could realistically make that happen so speaking of ceiling let's talk bucks and sheeps they are five to one and plus 650 respectively uh any lingering value in either those teams Nick given that they are the the favorites here or is that too short of a number for you to bet uh you know despite how good they are um I I think they're still value with Tampa um I look at the bucks this year and I'm curious if you guys agree with this I think they have the opportunity and I'm not like planting my flag in down and being like hey like this is absolutely going to happen but I think there's a good chance it could happen um I think it correlates to a couple different bets where I think we could realistically look back on this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team five 10 20 years from now and say this is one of the better teams we've seen maybe in the history of the National Football League like I think they they actually have that upside to be legitimately historically great this year everybody coming back Joe Trion looks ridiculous obviously the rookie pass rusher now you put him with Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre Paul um and the the NFC is just not as good as the AFC right like I don't see any team in the NFC East challenging Tampa Green Bay would be the one team in the north I I guess like people will make the case for the Niners or the Rams or the Seahawks I'm not going to so I think Tampa is clearly the best team in the conference here I I I think they're upside is to go 15 and 2 or 16 and 1 in the regular season like not saying it's definitely going to happen in a 17 game regular season they may have things wrapped up early and sit guys down the stretch like that's a realistic possibility so I'm not saying they can they can definitely reach those lofty goals here but I think Tampa is the best team in football not Kansas City now that's not meant to be a knock on the Chiefs more meant to be a compliment to Tampa I think you know we could very well be staring down the barrel of a Tampa Kansas City Super Bowl rematch here but I like Tampa plus 650 if I had to choose between one of those two because I think Tampa is more likely to get to the Super Bowl than Kansas City is because of the path and I think a correlated bet to make with Tampa and curious if you guys agree with this and I know like when we talk about coach of the year it's generally a situation where like a new coach comes in and you know exceeds expectations or the team improves by like four games whatever like Kevin Stafanski did it last year you know we've seen this happen numerous times with coach of the year but I'll direct you guys to the 2007 New England Patriots is just one example of this happening where the Patriots in 2006 go 11 and 5 were up 21-3 in Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game asante Samuel pick six of Peyton Manning we think it's all over Patriots going to be Peyton again here comes the big comeback right and the Colts win 38-34 cover the three and a half points Brent I remember because I bet it on that championship Sunday in 2006 and and the next year the Patriots go 16 and 0 obviously undefeated regular season Bella check wins coach of the year so it wasn't like they were four and 12 what nine and seven the next year one coach of the year so like there's historical precedent for this happening if if Tampa won 11-5 last year didn't even win their division if Tampa goes 15-2 this year or 16-1 why can't Bruce Arians win coach of the year 22-1 like why can't that happen you also have the media narrative built in there where Arians has two coach of the years already under his belt with two different teams one with Indianapolis as the interim coach when Chuck Pagano had to step down with leukemia with Andrew Luck and then wanted in Arizona with Carson Palmer and the Cardinals so Arians is a guy that the media loves this would be his third coach of the year with three different teams so I think that's something that plays into his favor perhaps here like I'm not saying it's definitely going to happen obviously I just think that a 22-1 if we actually reasonably think that Tampa's an outcome for them could be 15-2 16-1 historic type of regular season why can't Bruce Arians win coach of the year in an inflated number you can actually get an even better price at Fandle 30-1 for Bruce Arians longer than well you know I'm a bet rivers guy I know this is a Fandle right no yeah but yes you know what I'm saying but he's longer than Urban Meyer longer than Mike Vrable Mike McCarthy, Vic Fangio, Joe Judge that's interesting so I think that's that's pretty interesting there for sure okay let's step down from that top tier to watch six and to watch Brady we'll get hurt and they're going to win like four games and he's going to retire to go play golf in Florida for the rest of his life but hold on Nick but I think I want to bring this point out because you I personally what what you just said I believe there's a wide range of outcomes for Tampa Bay I believe they could be the best team in the NFL I believe Brady could finally start acting 43 years old right and I really enjoy because you said this similarly with Miami right it's not just you know some people some teams have a higher variance than others and I enjoy that out about teams because I think that's the right way to think about a lot of these bets especially when you're looking at low probability thing like winning a Super Bowl all right onto you yeah so I think that that finding variance is good in a lot of situations let's talk about the second tier if we see value in the box at plus 650 Nick any value for you and teams like the Packers Bills Ravens 49ers Rams and Browns and that second tier the 12 to 16 to one type tier anybody in that group stand out or do the box kind of push you away from betting in this second tier I kind of like Miami if we're going to get past that going to get past that tier here and again like I the acknowledgement here is that Miami's floor is to win like six games this year to a socks right which you have to I'm a I'm a to a truther I think to is going to be awesome I like the way this offense is going to be catered around him as opposed to last year with this love the weapons here floor as I think is shown to be a good coach a lot of talent on defense if the offensive line is not absolutely brutal I think Miami's upside is to win a Super Bowl championship and to his upside is to be MVP like I think that that is within the range of outcomes again so they can also my only Super Bowl my only MVP bet this year at that river so you go 66 to one to a tongue of Iloa I'm on board man love it I think the other one in that tier I I really like Buffalo I think Buffalo is the third best team in football what are the fan dual prices right now in Buffalo and Baltimore let me find that for you for Super Bowl yes okay so to win the Super Bowl Buffalo is 12 to one Baltimore 14 I I think I I really like both of these teams I like both of them I think and this may be something you guys disagree with also I think Cleveland's is more likely to have a better regular season than Baltimore but I think Baltimore's upside is higher than Cleveland's like I give Baltimore a better chance to win the championship to win a Super Bowl than I do the Browns I think this Baltimore passing game obviously not film at 11 here it's going to struggle you know Hollywood Brown is barely practiced with the hand like you don't want a speed guide have a hamstring that's that's problematic Bateman's going to be out until October with the groin so I mean I think it's going to take some time for Baltimore's offense to round into shape but I mean you know my co-host on you better you bet Ken Barkley Locky Lockers and made a really interesting analogy during interesting analogy with Baltimore last week on the show and it's not apples to apples so we're not saying it's the same exact thing but like Baltimore's kind of like the Milwaukee Bucks coming into the year here right where you've got the former MVP and it's like people are tired of Baltimore now like gotten to the playoffs a couple of times three years here with Lamar you know they finally got over the hump and they won their first game thanks to some Mike Vrabel stupidity at the end of that wild card game in Tennessee and then Lamar throws the pick six we ended up losing a teaser on Baltimore in that game because Justin Tucker missed like nine field goals and Lamar threw that hundred yard pick six which is aggravating but it's like people are kind of like out on Baltimore I feel like as far as the ceiling is concerned like to get to the Super Bowl this year and I think Baltimore's got like not a terribly easy schedule to start the year like they see the Chiefs and we do they never beat Kansas City so maybe wait on Baltimore a little bit if you want to make like a futures bet on Baltimore to win the Super Bowl here Buffalo I think Buffalo is upside is to be like again like 14 and 3 this year I know some people kind of like are down on Buffalo a little bit I don't understand how you could be like the offense is going to be sick Josh Allen is going to have a great season I kind of like don't see it and like if Rousseau is going to be awesome the first round pass rusher and AJ Epeneza is going to be good as well which he has been in the preseason and training camp like this defensive line has the opportunity to get after that ass man and bring down the opposing quarterback and that's something that was missing last year for Buffalo so Buffalo and Baltimore I think are two teams that I target there you know it's interesting all these teams that I'm talking about are from the AFC which is again why I'm like I really like Tampa obviously to come out of the NFC No I agree I mean with Buffalo like I think their past defense kind of underperformed I think they have more potential with players in the second there too which is why I also am high on a team that I couldn't have imagined being high on a year ago Nick before we let you go we don't want to restrict you to Super Bowl odds so is there anything else in the futures market NFL wise that you are interested in I think defensive player of the year presents a pretty interesting odds and potential value call me square and that's okay I like Chase Young a lot I think he's 12 to 1 right now at Bed Rivers look in the first preseason game against the Patriots like I think it's pretty well acknowledged right that Isaiah when the Patriots left tackle is like an ascending left tackle like could one day be like one of the best one of the best left tackles in football Chase Young made him look like an amateur in that preseason and I get it's the preseason but just that this dude ceiling I just feel like is absolutely monstrous so Chase Young at 12 to 1 is someone that I look at you know Von Miller coming off the ACL last year he's 33 to 1 right now at Bed Rivers like Von Miller like first ballad hall of famer Super Bowl MVP under the under the old resume already and like these two guys kind of check the boxes of like who wins defensive player of the year like I think in like the history of this award at least in the last like 20 years I am fairly certain and please correct me if I'm wrong JJ Watt with his probably steroid induced season when he won his first defensive player of the year is like the only guy to like come out of like nowhere right and obviously like it's not confirmed the wobbles on steroids and being a little glib there obviously that Watt is like the only guy to like come out of nowhere like that doesn't happen with defensive player of the year right you you've got a pro bowl at least one right you've got an all protein probably so it's like guys that have had some success in the past before so I think like Durwin James could be a stud with the Chargers this year I would never bet Durwin James to be defensive player of the year Darius Leonard is a guy that makes a lot of sense to me 33 to 1 I don't think Indy is going to be very good which may hurt his kind of ceiling here but I mean he's going to rack up all the counting stats that you need in terms of the tackles I texted a lot of people in the NFL and I mean that seriously I worked for the NFL media for 10 years for serious XM NFL radio so like I actually do have sources in the NFL not with other sports but with the NFL I do everyone likes Devin White things like this is the monster season for Devin White where he like announces himself to the world as the best defensive player on what could be the best team in football Devin White right now is 33 to 1 I think for Davius White is really interesting right I think he's also 33 to 1 and Ed I know you mentioned Buffalo secondary having a lot of great players he's the best one if Buffalo is going to have this monster season he's the best player like why can't he be like Stefan Gilmore in 2019 like the best defensive player on one of the best teams that wins defensive player of the year so I think that market is really interesting offensive rookie of the year I'd probably bet like whichever rookie quarterback is going to start the most games at the best odds which right now is Zach Wilson at plus 700 max 8 to 1 right now but we don't know if max is going to start the full complements of games and I think in the history of the award like no rookie quarterback with the exception of Herbert last year has started less than 16 games and won the award and like obviously like the Chargers team Dr. Puncture Taran Taylor's team they didn't even want to play him so yeah it's like whichever rookie quarterbacks go to start 17 games or at least enters the season as the starter and has the best odds right now that looks like it's Zach Wilson that's who I'd look to bet for offensive rookie of the year and if like the Patriots named max the starter and he's 8 to 1 I bet max so those are some of the other individual awards that I'm looking at and Jim like you mentioned to us my long shot MVP play I love it love to hear it also love the correlated thoughts with Bruce Arians Devin White the buck Super Bowl thinking that way I think is always smart when it comes to the futures mark until they suck until they suck and I lose all my money but yeah yeah but like if they suck it's 30 to 1 you know at least at least you're out on a ledge at least you had you know that's that's baked in so you know we're all good there that is Nick Costos checking out on Twitter at the Costos and check out you better you bet on Odyssey Nick we appreciate the time good luck this year hopefully we'll talk to you again soon good luck to you guys as well look forward to having you guys on you better you bet this season and talking to you on this show down the road thank you excited to be on thank you covering the future big thank you once again to Nick Costos for swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on Super Bowl 56 futures and Ed talking about the Broncos I think that the way that Nick was discussing that kind of does tie back into a discussion that we had a couple weeks ago where I was talking about the Broncos and what I had to do to get them to be an eight and a half when team where I needed to make Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock be a league average passer that got them to eight and a half wins so if you can find a way to make them above average there is some upside in there so I think that the way he was discussing it was correct and although I like the under I think that the range of outcomes here is pretty wide and that does include at least some sort of a ceiling on that team even if it's not Super Bowl winnings upside there is a ceiling there well yeah okay so yeah there is certainly a ceiling but I kind of see this maybe like last potentially like Denver's last Super Bowl winning team just because I see some upside in the defense they brought in Kyle Fuller which is a guy that Big Fangio is liked and played with before definitely an above average NFL cornerback that doesn't get hurt you had Bryce Callahan who is one of the top graded cornerbacks in the league last year by PFF and then you draft Patrick Sartan from what the scouts say is high floor cornerback maybe not the highest ceiling of anyone that got drafted but a very high floor so look it's idiocy to project too much about coverage and secondary because it regresses so much from your year but if any team's kind of going to make a jump I mean they were a top 10 defense last year anyone's going to make a jump even further you get Von Miller back on the defensive side of the ball you end up being one of the at least top five best defenses and then you get average quarterback play from Teddy Bridgewater you know and like yeah I don't know I see some hope with this Denver team and yeah so anyways I think it's interesting I would definitely not go over I'm sorry I would definitely not go under on the team I've not bet the over because again it's so volatile with defense from year to year but I do think that with those two new pieces and getting Von Miller back from injury that defense has a potential to be really good I think that ties something we discussed at the FanDuel FanFest Lisa asked me you know so you like the under would you bet them in the midst of playoffs which is minus 190 and I said no because I recognize that the range of outcomes is so wide I think that their median their median projection is seven wins and that's under however I think that they have upside and therefore I didn't want to lay minus 190 that they missed despite the fact they're in the AAC West with the Chiefs and the Chargers stuff like that I can't lay minus 190 in a situation like that so although I like the under I respect the fact that they have the path to being a good team and that's why minus 190 was too infuriated to pay there so I just like the way that Nick thinks about these things talks about it and it seems like has the correct line of thought process when it comes to dissecting what upside actually is and what volatility is and viewing upside or volatility in the proper sense in terms of betting so let's move now into covering the future for this week and you're talking about the Titans we've alluded to them a couple of times but not in depth and it sounds like Ryan Tannehill was a guy who popped up in your annual quarterback study now what does that do for you with the Titans and their win total at nine yeah I mean I like the under here I think I think Tennessee is a little bit overrated it's definitely starts with Tannehill so he's clearly been really good over the past two years since you replaced Marcus Mariota but as I've talked about you know some of my research has shown how you know interceptions from last season or interception rate from last season isn't a very good predictor of what's going to go forward but when you look at bad balls which is basically all the situations in which a quarterback puts the ball in dangerous position so this is the sum of interceptions plus passes defended that tends to be a much better predictor of interceptions and Ryan Tannehill only during his time during Tennessee let's not even let's not even count the years that he was with the the NFL quarterback morgue keeper and Adam Gase and in Miami he's at a bad ball rate of 13.3% and that's significantly higher than the NFL average of 11.3% in contrast he's been really good with turnovers he's only thrown interceptions on 1.8% of his passes in his time at Tennessee that's lower than the NFL average of 2.4% so just like Carson Wentz last year I'm predicting that Tannehill is going to have a rougher season you know he's been excellent in EPA per dropback when you look at the metrics that Ben Baldwin tracks over at whatever his site is go check it out but part of that is you know I mean interceptions are very minus expected points plays right so so when you're getting fortunate which is what my analysis said he's gotten fortunate over the last couple years in terms of throwing interceptions he does put the ball in dangerous positions and you know we expect that to progress and then you know Tennessee's defense was a complete dumpster fire last year and so in some sense they're kind of starting over they got rid of cornerback Malcolm Butler when we're looking at their secondary they signed Genoris Jenkins who's definitely a good average NFL cornerback but he is 32 years old they're kind of starting they're looking to rely on Chris Bolton who was second round draft pick in 2020 at the other cornerback slot he was hurt a lot last year and then the other guy that they're potentially relying on back there is Caleb Fairley who is a rookie that is a high ceiling type of cornerback but also a guy who had back surgery I believe within the last 12 months so how actually yeah what's that he's I think he's had a couple within the past couple months I think oh as you had a couple back surgery he's had at least one ACL at some point I think he's had two backs or it's at least it's at least one but there's potentially a couple in there yeah and he didn't play football in 2020 so when I look at who they're relying on in that secondary it doesn't give me a ton of confidence that that they can come back I mean they did they did add some pieces to the past rush which I which I think will help they did add obviously Julio Jones on the offense side of the ball so they are kind of in a win now mode but I I don't see it happening I think they're they're going to be a very average team so I took the under under nine wins of Fanduil which was actually plus 125 which I think is a pretty good price right now and yeah that's what I'm going with today so I'm curious two things first of all does the fact that Genorus Jenkins now wants to be called Jackrabbit change your assessment of their secondary does Jackrabbit Jenkins move the needle for you Jackrabbit Jenkins annoys me because that's what he's listed at on PFF which made it difficult for me to find he actually is listed as Jackrabbit now you cannot find anyone under the name Genorus on on the PFF database so he's actually going as Jackrabbit I thought it was just a nickname I don't know if that means he's actually going by Jackrabbit but that's what he's listed at in PFF I think that's got to be worth at least half a win though right what his presence what his name no no the name Jackrabbit not his presence like the name Jackrabbit that's at least half a win to me I think having him play 17 games and being above average at least the average NFL cornerback that might be worth half a win okay well I'm going to go with the Jackrabbit name itself not the play this is the Jackrabbit second question is Tennessee is currently plus 130 to miss the playoffs right I think that that does not it's kind of similar to the Broncos discussion where liking their under does not necessarily lead you towards betting them to miss the playoffs sure plus 130 I think is a very reasonable number but the problem is if you're betting tight to miss you gotta concoct someone else to win the AFC south and that's tough so are you staying away from that number and just betting the wind total here yeah I think we're I think we're going to go with the wind total but you know I mean it you know Tennessee did win the division last year right I'm pretty sure yeah because India was on the road in the first round of the playoffs they were against Buffalo yeah so right I mean it's I mean it's so there's certainly going to be division winners that don't win and I would put Tennessee is one of the more likely ones to do not win their division okay so Ed likes Tennessee under nine my cover in the future for this week is actually something Nick covered tangentially he discussed it in passing but as we discussed previously you can't take a ton out of what you see in the present but the one difference for me the one thing I do care about is usage and teams show you the players they want to feature and who will get volume for the season and it really seems like the Jets are going to get Corey Davis involved heavily so I like the over 825.5 receiving yards with minus 112 on the over right now for Davis's season long prop so far this pretty season Davis has run 13 routes according to next-gen stats he has been targeted on 10 of those 13 routes no other player who has run at least 10 routes has been targeted on more than half their routes and Davis is at like 76 percent so obviously that's not going to stick but it does show they are scheming in touches and getting the ball and it shows Zach Wilson trusts him and has a report built up with Davis already now it is worth noting that Elijah Moore their second-round rookie who was tremendous in minicamps has not played yet he's been getting rave reviews in practice but he also hasn't played because he had an injury which means he missed time key practice time developing with Wilson getting that chemistry Davis hasn't and it looks like he is taking full advantage here the Jets don't have a tight end here to take away targets outside of maybe some Tyler Croft dump offs again their backs are not monsters in the passing game so even if more does carve out a significant role here it might not matter at all in terms of trying to get Cord Davis above a 25 and a half number fires Davis at 888 yards that doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room but I think that might be underselling him if they do want to skewing towards an over team as Nick alluded to with Carl Lawson's injury they also draw Davis on the at the lineback or he's also banged up they could be a team that has to you know make up some deficits I've got them as a 5.9 win team that could bode well for some passing as well so I am down to go here and check take the over and hope that the preseason chemistry between Davis and Wilson carries over into the regular season and I think the Nick's analysis there was correct and I agree with it where the jets could be a team that is a bit more high scoring or the games can be more high scoring than perception given how good Wilson has looked given the Lawson injury the Davis injury and stuff like that so I think that Corey Davis over 825 and a half pretty attractive for me. Any thoughts for you on the jets so far obviously too early to tell on Zach Wilson stuff like that but just brought thoughts on the team entering 2021? Yeah I haven't I haven't done my deep dive yet but I'm always going to fade rookie quarterbacks I think that's just kind of you know I mean obviously it doesn't work out with the Justin Herbert sometimes Justin Herbert is more the exception that's for sure well it gives you an opportunity to fade him in year two as the football outsiders people are this season so yeah I don't know I mean they I I think I don't know I don't think of them much as a team right now I don't know if they're going to be worse than Detroit in my mind because Detroit might be the worst team in in football as I talked about last year sorry last week but but I mean that might be a good thing because they'll be down they'll be throwing a lot and that'll give a lot of opportunities to get yards yeah that's to go here and just the the rapport seems really good so Corey Davis over a 25 and a half the first Jets future I've got for this year and that is all the time that we have here for today on covering the spread once again big thank you to Nick Costos for swinging by checking out on Twitter at the Costos and check out you better you bet on Odyssey or wherever wherever you get your podcast as well to do post it after the fact as well big thank you to Nick as always Ed what is going on for you this week over at the power rank yeah the big thing is that we launched the preview series on the football analytics show so episode three went up today it's Edward Ygros talking about Heisman odds probably the best episode it's going to be on the entire series it's really good so I highly recommend that you go check out the one thing about Heisman betting that he's dug up up from historical data so that's football analytics show and then yeah over at the power rank I'm still writing my sports betting email newsletter it's a free service check it out at thepowerrank.com all right make sure you follow Ed on Twitter as well at the power rank and again the the preview series the football analytics show wherever you get your podcasts I am on Twitter at Jimsonis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the Fanduel podcast network at Fanduel podcast big thank you Devin for tuning in for today good luck to you with your bets this weekend if you're betting the preseason is the final week wraps up here good luck with the other few futures and for week zero of college football we'll talk to you once again next week this has been covering the spread right here on the Fanduel podcast network Aaron Dolan here thanks for watching and make sure you click below on that subscribe button for more great Fanduel content and check out some of our latest uploads and playlists right over here