 Welcome into the FanDuel hurry up. It's Maria Marino for Fantasy Sports Network joined by Number Fire's Jim Sonnis as well previewing the Super Bowl once again. We've been talking about it from every single angle and today we're gonna dive deeper into strategies specifically for the single-gain Super Bowl slate on FanDuel and the first strategy we want to highlight courtesy of Jim is that quarterbacks are Safe for that MVP spot within your lineup Jim. Why is that? Yeah, I think this is kind of something that's true in general for fantasy Just because quarterbacks have such a good floor from a fantasy perspective because they touch the ball every play You can kind of predict how their scoring will go But I think for this game specifically it makes even more sense to go with either Tom Brady or Jared Goff in that MVP Slot just because in general I think with these two specific teams The quarterback scoring is going to be your most reliable source for fantasy outputs because you look at the backfields here It's between CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley for the Rams And then it's a three-headed backfield for the Patriots and you don't really know who's going to go off in a given week Between those two backfields Same thing is less so true at receiver but still partially there because you got Robert Woods and Brandon Cooks for the Rams But the Patriots corners are really good They can kind of nullify wide receivers and on the Patriots side you do have Edelman But I kind of think that from an Edelman perspective his biggest strength is his floor Rather than his upsides, I'm not really super inclined to put Edelman in my MVP slot So that kind of does leave us with the quarterbacks more often than not looking back at past Super Bowls The quarterback has been the highest scoring player from a fantasy perspective two of the past five times They have been the second highest or third highest score in the other three games as well So I kind of think that if you're looking for safety out of your MVP slot You kind of want to bank in that really good production It does make most sense to go with a quarterback there And I think that the quarterbacks in general are just the safest outlets for this game So when looking at the single game slate, I really do think a quarterback will be in my MVP slot a pretty good percentage of the time Right and as you mentioned, it's just harder a little bit harder to predict out of all of these offensive weapons that are out there Which one is actually going to go off? Whereas you assume that both of these quarterbacks are going to be productive It should be relatively high scoring a close game that should see a lot of points Which means you feel good about putting your MVP as a quarterback now We talked about for the Pro Bowl how Wide receivers you liked at MVP. This is obviously completely opposite This is more in tune to a regular game scenario But you say wide receivers a little troublesome in the MVP spot Yeah, I think that there are a couple of instances during the regular season Which I would use a wide receiver in the MVP slot like thinking back to Thursday night football back way back early in the year I think that it made a lot of sense to use AJ Green your MVP slot for one of the games Just because he had like a 30% target market share at the time. We know he has monster upside So if you have a wide receiver who has just this monster market share in those instances I do think it does make sense to put those players in your MVP slot But you look at this specific game There are no pass catchers in general who have market shares that are that high Robert Woods are on 27% for the Rams, but doesn't get a lot of work down feel which does cap his upside Julian Edelman he has 26% of the Patriots targets in the in the playoffs That's a pretty good number and he does get worked down the field, but Edelman's strength is going to be in his safety It's not going to be in his upside Which means he's not super conducive to that MVP slot So basically what you're getting is spread out production for these wide receivers within this game And that's kind of scary for me from an MVP perspective because if you want a wide receiver to go off and be Kind of this lone ranger who goes off and not bring the quarterback along with him You want him to be getting almost all of the team's targets in that specific game That's probably not going to happen for any of the wide receivers between the Patriots and the Rams So basically if we assume that Edelman does go off That probably means that Tom Brady will go off as well with dragging You know guys like Chris Hogan, Rob Gronkowski, James White along the way So to me I think that if I assume a wide receiver does do well I'll probably just be more inclined to put their quarterback in the MVP slot than that wide receiver specifically This is not to talk down upon all wide receivers in this game I think that they are really attractive as we'll talk about in a second But as far as the MVP slot goes I think that I'd be more inclined to use either a quarterback or a running back there rather than a wide receiver It seems kind of simple, but maybe not the most obvious logic You make a really good point if one of these receivers for example is gonna go off Why not have the quarterback be in your MVP spot where you're reaping those benefits anyway It just makes sense and just seems like a really smart way to go about it Moving on to our next strategy Wide receivers are valuable in other spots throughout your single game lineup for the Super Bowl Why do you say that? Yeah, I think that when you look at the the salaries on the wide receivers for this game That's kind of the thing that I do like about them And I think that I'm going to wind up using them quite a bit Even if they don't wind up in my MVP slot because outside of Edelman They're all pretty cheap Brandon cooks is down to 11 5 You got Robert Woods at 10 5 and then also Josh Reynolds as a pretty big value play on the Rams side So from a salary perspective the wide receivers are pretty good But also if you look back at past Super Bowls You tend to have a lot of wide receivers among the top five scorers in that game Which is what I want to find I want to pinpoint those top five scorers and get those guys on my roster If you look at the top five scores for the past five years The average is that there have been 2.2 wide receivers within that top five per year There has been only one season in which there were not two wide receivers that was back in 2017 But every other year there have been at least two there were actually four wide receivers among the top five and scoring back in 2014 So I think that you're probably going to wind up having Multiple wide receivers in most of the line-ups you fill out just because they do tend to score well They also benefit from playing inside a dome which is good for wide receivers. And again, they save you a lot of sour You've got some pretty good options in that lower salary tier with guys like Chris Hogan and Josh Reynolds getting good market shares Philip Dorr set down there as well. So I'm going to use wide receivers And I think that I will be very okay with using them for this specific slate I just don't think that'll be in the MVP slot. So kind of conflicting points here You know, maybe I'll use in the MVP slot But I think they're good overall which may be counterintuitive But I do think overall wide receivers do deserve to be on a pretty good number of your roster slots Okay, so just to clarify we like quarterback at MVP the most And we like wide receivers in pretty much any other slot And it's a great way to get some value and be able to save a little bit of your salary up next quarterbacks, let's talk about them even further and Using both of them often. That's what you you're recommending Are you are you gonna have a lot of line-ups with both quarterbacks? Most likely. Yeah I think that that's kind of the way to go for this slate because when again, you look at the two teams specifically It's a lot of spread out production Especially with the Rams sprinkling in CJ Anderson in the backfield for this Rams team If you look at number fires projections for this game both Jared Goff and Tom Brady are expected to score more than 18 Fandal points. Nobody else is projected to score more than 13 and a half It's a pretty big gap from Tom Brady and Jared Goff down to the rest of the pack on top of that The salaries for these two guys are not super restrictive. They're both $15,500 which I think honestly is a bit of a bargain during the regular season You would see guys, you know at the quarterback position who'd be priced 16 517 thousand dollars for these single-gain slates So the salary is not bad for Jared Goff and Tom Brady the projections like both these guys quite a bit and historically It's been good to have both quarterbacks in your lineup Especially if you assume this game will feature a pretty good number of points If we look at the top five scores in Super Bowl line-ups over the past five years Three of the past five years both quarterbacks have been among the top five in scoring that was in 2018 2017 and 2015 if you look back to 2014 the game of football back then was pretty different than it is now with passing being a lot Further emphasize so with three of the past four years having two quarterbacks in the top five and scoring I'm inclined to trust that quite a bit and go with both Jared Goff and Tom Brady in my line It's you kind of switch things up You know you put Brady in your MVP slot for one put golf in the MVP slot for the other So there are different ways you can change things up while getting both quarterbacks in there But I think with the spread out volume that both these teams have right now I think that there is a lot of safety and a lot of allure in plugging in Jared Goff and Tom Brady and just going from there Well, we've already established that the quarterbacks really have the best floor of any position as we head into this single-game slate and What helps the the whole idea or the whole strategy of using both of them is the other strategy Which you mentioned as well where you can plug in some wide receivers for some bargain prices and get some value So I like that both quarterbacks as well are They're pricey, but not completely out of the question pricey So up next let's talk about running backs now and one strategy that you like for The single-game slate for the Super Bowl is using the running back of the winning team now That must mean you know who's gonna win Jim Yeah, I think that you know, we were joking about that Maria But at the same time if you're building a lineup you kind of have to make these assumptions So like if I fill out a lineup I want to assume in that specific lineup that the Rams win 100% of the time because within that specific lineup It's the the Rams are either gonna win or they're not that's how the outcome is going to be So when you're building a lineup you want to assume like you want to play the Swami and be able to assume Hey, I know with 100% certainty that the Patriots will win the blowout or that the Rams win a close game Once you make that assumption you can build from there, but pretty much no matter what assumption you build You know, you're gonna have a running back who will benefit from that assumption and running backs Do tend to score well when they're on the winning team last year or two years ago I should say James White had the highest score in that game by a pretty wide margin He was on the winning team in that one CJ Anderson would have been your MVP slot back in 2016 He was on the winning team as well even last year when it was a huge shootout And the Eagles had this kind of split backfield both Corey Clement and the Garrett blunt scored more fantasy points than any of the Patriots running backs did so there's a lot of value in Pinpointing the running back will be on the winning team So if you're filling it a lot up and fill it out under the assumption that Todd there that the Rams win If you assume that you could either assume that Todd Gurley or CJ Anderson will get a lot of volume and have a really good day So and I think that for the Patriots the obvious one there is Sony Michelle because He's gotten so much volume when they have been ahead on top of that both these teams can run the ball efficiently So if they do get a lead and are able to hang on to it, they're gonna run the ball pretty efficiently So I think you do just want to make assumptions like when you're filling out a lineup Assume a tight game assume a block game Whether it's favoring the Rams of the Patriots But make that assumption in your head and build your lineup based on that assumption and most of those assumptions Will lead you to getting either a Patriots running back or a Rams running back on your team I really like this idea of determining different game script scenarios And if you want to play in more than one contest and put out a few different lineups kind of To reflect how you think the the game might go I do think that's really fun. And then of course if you just want to go all in on one lineup and Try to project it. I think that's that's actually really fun, too So it's kind of a win-win all around and just real quick. Are are you leaning Patriots? So I gotta confess that I'm a fairly Degenerate Jared Goff fan So it's hard for me to pick against Jared Goff So if you force me Maria to pick right now Who would I pick? I would probably pick the Patriots Okay But I think the odds of the Patriots winning are a little bit lower than the public seems to think it is Based on the way the betting is gone. So in general, I favor the Patriots But I think I'm more into the Rams than the public is right now I think that's the most political I could possibly give my answer. It's kind of, you know, ride both sides Give me both. How about that? Ultimate hedge but Sorry, I digress. I just wanted to get that out there We still have one more strategy to discuss when it comes to the single-game slate for the Super Bowl and that is Using our old friends our dear friends the kickers There's a couple of good kickers I would say probably two of the best kickers in the league will be playing in this Super Bowl and they have a good floor They absolutely do and I think that when you're looking at players in this kind of middle to lower tier from a salary Perspective you can see guys who have really good ceilings Like I think that Josh Reynolds has a path to a good game because you know We know that the mantra the Patriots defense is take away the best options that can lead to a lot for Reynolds Chris Hogan catch a deep ball every now and then Robert and Kowski Maybe he goes out on top and his potentially final game All those guys have a path to at least a decent ceiling But from a floor perspective none of those players are on par with what you get from both Steven Gostkowski and Greg Zurline. So I think that there is a lot of a lure in using these guys here Gostkowski Averaged 8.5 points per game this year He had at least four points in every game this year at at least eight Fandall points in 12 of 18 games Greg Zurline had at least seven points in every game this year from a Fandall perspective So like the fours of these guys are really good and they're going to be better than what you get from those lower dollar plays So I don't think that the That the the ceiling is bad for the lower tier plays But I think if you're looking for floor It's pretty attractive to plug in a kicker because if you plug in a kicker What you're doing is you are allowing yourself to be less fragile if the four other players on your roster do go off So I think what I'll do is kind of go back to the assumption game Maria Where I assume that either the Patriots or the Rams will win and fill out my lineup based on that And the winning kicker is going to be a pretty good selection because you're implying that team will score points They'll probably have chances at field goes late in the game So that kicker and at running back you want to make the assumption that one team wins and build a lineup based on that It'll be a pretty clear winner based on you know, which kicker you decide to use So I think that that's the way I play it there And if you want to go for floor the kickers are pretty good options where they're priced at for this weekend All right, you hear that forget the stigma when it comes to kickers in single-game DFS All right, Jim and I are gonna take a quick break But when we come back we are going to discuss some game Proposition bets via fan duel sportsbook. I'm so excited. Don't go anywhere We're back on the fan duel hurry up Maria Marino for fantasy sports network and number fires Jim Sonnes to preview some of the proposition bets Available via fan duel sportsbook. There are so many fun ones to choose from we're gonna highlight some of Jim's favorites Right now and the first one is the projected rushing yard total for the game Both teams combined is at about two thirteen and a half yards and Jim You think we're gonna go over that number. Yeah, I think that when you look at these two teams It's two really smart defensive coordinators essentially, you know Brian Flores and Bill Belichick for the Patriots and then Wade Phillips for the Rams and both of these teams are Analogically minded although the Patriots never admit that they put a lot of stock in numbers I think that they both understand that it is in their best interest to force the opposing team to run the football because rushing in General is less efficient than passing and both these offenses have good good rushing offenses as well So they can take advantage of that So I kind of think if I'm looking at this game overall I would expect there to be a tiny bit more rushing than is there is projected to be based on the total for this game Up at 57 points and also based on this prop here 213.5 rushing yards in this game number fires projections agree right now They project there to be 238.6 rushing yards in this game between the two teams combined And I think that a lot of it can come down from the winner of this game Whoever that winds up being because the Patriots and their two playoff wins have a hundred and fifty five yards rushing and a hundred and seventy six yards rushing The Rams had 273 all by themselves against the Cowboys and then 77 against the Saints and a pretty stout rush defense there So the winning team in this game They could go over this by themselves and honestly, I think that you know around 150 or so is probably a pretty realistic Expectation for the winning team in this game, which means that the losing team would need, you know Roughly 63 or so to hit that over So there is some juice on the over here at minus 160, but I think even with that being considered I think that there is enough here looking at these two offense looking at the way the defense Accordators will likely think going into this one where I would expect there to be a pretty good amount of rushing in this game So I think that the over here does make a lot of sense The running games for both of these teams have been productive throughout this postseason so far Obviously Sony Michelle with the Patriots and then on the Rams side, whether it's CJ Anderson or I think as many DFS players and and bettors are hoping Todd Gurley. They've still been somewhat efficient. I think that's a pretty safe bet Let's move on to another prop bet Julian Edelman to lead in receiving yards. How do you feel about that? Yeah, Edelman right now is a favor to lead in receiving yards, which I don't you know I don't generally want to do that, but I think for this specific game It does make a lot of sense number fires projections currently have Edelman projected to lead this game with 72.59 receiving yards Robert Woods is second. He is at 66 receiving yards and Brandon cooks is the only other guy Projected to get more than 54 receiving yards So it's basically a pretty small pool of players who could lead this game in receiving yardage and among those guys I think that Edelman has the safest path to having a good amount of yardage in this game because You know with Brandon cooks and Robert Woods You know Bill Belichick is gonna do whatever he can to try to slow those two guys down So it could lead to Josh Reynolds But Reynolds is not a guy who gets a lot of receiving yardage in general is from an upside perspective So I kind of think that Edelman does make a lot of sense here gets 26 percent of the Patriots targets That is in addition to 33 percent of their deep targets looking at just the playoffs So he gets a lot of overall yard or a lot of overall Volume but also volume down the field which can lead to the that yardage pretty quickly for Edelman So I think that it's not overly attractive to bet the favorite here Edelman is plus 250 to lead and receive the yardage But based on the projections and just based on thinking about this game anecdotally I think it does lead towards Edelman being the pretty easy selection to lead this game So at plus 250 I think I can get behind him at that number I really like the idea of Julian Edelman You know as the favorite leading and receiving yard is just considering the fact that if we Like the Patriots to win as we've talked about Um just with DFS but also with betting Kind of making making bets and and assumptions along those lines I think Tom Brady is going to do well Julian Edelman is his favorite receiver. He's been here before I just it's again just something you feel good about something fun to bet on Let's move on to another prop bet that you like And there's one available on Fandall which says any wide receiver or tight end Will have 100 receiving yards Um tell me why you think this is a good one to go with Yeah, I went with no here at plus 115 partly because you know when you look at the receivers in this game It's kind of back to what we discussed earlier on Maria where it's kind of spread out production I did just talk about Edelman getting this concentrated production for the Patriots But even with him he's getting just 26 of the team's targets and 33 of the deep targets like those aren't overwhelming numbers Number fires projections right now Again had Edelman leading with 73 receiving yards And he'd have to go pretty well over that in order to hit the over here for 100 receiving yards Only five players are projected to have more than 46 receiving yards So it's kind of a small pool of players who could top that 100 yard barrier And again, it also goes back to what we discussed before at the rushing where I can see this being a game that does feature a pretty good number of rushing attempts and if that does happen That's going to suppress passing volume, which will put a bigger emphasis on the possibility We just don't see anybody get to that 100 yardage Marker the Rams have good slot corner play and neckel roby Coleman when he's not passing or fearing out there at least You know, so there is good corner play to keep Edelman in check So I like Edelman a lot But I think there is a pretty good chance the Rams keep him beneath that 100 yardage marker And I think when you see that the no on this one is plus 115 It does make a lot of sense to side with that So I think it's larger the number they're giving me here with the no being plus 115 That makes me side with saying all players will be under that number number fires projections Think that'll be the case and I'm willing to buy into that as well Number fires projections have been Pretty darn on point all season. Uh, you've been pretty on point for the most part Just kidding. So no, I uh, of course. I I respect the logic Let's talk about another prop bet. Um, and this one has to do with the goat tom brady You think that he will be the quarterback to throw the first interception of the game. Is that right? Yeah, I don't want to, you know, get any negative tom brady stuff out there because patriots fans can be tiny bit vocal on twitter So I don't want to go right. Just I don't want to go out here too much But I think just from a numbers perspective This one does make sense because brady to throw the first pick is plus 100 right now in fandom sports book And you know, honestly with number fires projections brady is projected to throw more picks than golf He is at point seven eight whereas golf is a point seven. Oh, we remember, you know Back in the conference championship that brady did throw two picks in that game He had a third actually that was called back by the d4 and offsides penalty And overall brady has thrown 13 picks this year when you count the playoffs, which is the exact same number as golf This rand's defense has been really good ever since a cube to leave came back They've allowed negative point 0 5 passing that expected points per drop back based on number fires metrics The league averages at point one two, so they've been a really good defense ever since a key to leave came back I do think that the patriots defense has a lot of talent But when you put a key to leave on that rand's team, I think that they if I had to pick one I'd probably pick the rand's defense if I had to pick one straight up So I think that overall I think it's pretty even odds that jared golf or tom brady winds up throwing The first pick in this game. So if i'm getting tom brady at exactly plus 100 when it's really hard To find any value and prop bets for the super bowl because people are so jazzed to bet on it I think i'm going to take that so uh, you know, it could be golf. It could be johnny hecker Maybe throwing that first kick, but I do think that uh that tom brady of those selections would be my favorite I could see why people are jazzed. I'm pretty jazzed But it's really the the numbers game that you're playing there with why you're selecting tom brady in that scenario, which I appreciate So let's move on to our pal. Todd girly um and sony michelle on the patriot side so in talking about sort of how this Run game scenario on each side is going to play out this proposition bet has girly reaching 50 rushing yards Before michelle does How do you feel about that? Yeah, a lot of that comes down to just a numbers game maria because when you look at these two back fields Todd girly is fighting with one guy that's cj anderson whereas sony michelle is fighting with two in rex burkhead and james white So if we're looking at getting production quickly early in the game That kind of does favor Todd girly over sony michelle because when is michelle at his best? He is at his best late in the ball game when the patriots are ahead and can grind down clock That's going to make him a little bit less favorable for a prop like this Then he would be if we were betting on rushing totals for the entire game If we look at this the matchups too, I think that it's actually a game That sets up pretty for a pretty good amount of Todd girly because the weakness of this patriots defense Isn't the speed of their linebackers. That is why kareem hunt had five receptions for 105 yards against them We saw to rick cohen get eight receptions for 69 yards lashom a coyote 82 receiving yards You can exploit this team with backs out of the backfield, but you know again That doesn't relate to rushing So why are we talking about that here as it relates to from a rushing perspective for Todd girly? I just think that what that's going to lead to is Todd girly being on the field more often than cj anderson And if if you give me Todd girly and his regular role Against this Patriots defense and give me plus 150 that he'll get to 50 rushing yards before sony michelle I'm inclined to take that so I think it's a couple of things to line up here whether it be the number of guys in the backfield for the rams compared to the Patriots Whether it be the anecdote around the way they could use girly compared to cj anderson in this game Or the thinking about when sony michelle gets his rushing yards Those things do funnel me towards taking girly straight up over sony michelle plus 150 To get to 50 rushing yards first just because I think that there are a lot of factors That could lead to this being a good game for Todd girly I think this is music to a lot of people's ears Jim and I just just like to point out If you watch this program, you probably have noticed already that the The notes at the bottom of the screen are Are pretty uh pretty snarky pretty witty and I just want to shout out to uh our producer our exec producer Greg Sussman for being super creative and funny make sure you you read the bottom of the screen That's all i'm gonna say now Let's move on to uh one more proposition bet that you like This one is the distance of the shortest successful field goal Being over 25 and a half yards. Why do you think that's a good bet to make? It could just be because I have too much faith in the intelligence of these Of these head coaches to not to kick a field goal that short because you know, you look back to last week I was super enraged with Sean McVeigh kicking a field goal from the one yard length It's like dude like you're supposed to be the super smart coach Like just you know, you know try to score here man Like I was pretty mad about that So you're looking back at what these teams have done this year because it got me kind of worried about this one The anecdote around McVeigh doing that last week But I think in general these two teams didn't kick a lot of super short field goals for this year This would be from the eight yard eight yard line or closer for a 25 yard field goal The rams did kick 10 field goals of that length. They're shorter this year But it usually was not against super high powered offense They did it once against the chiefs. They did it twice against the seahawks But all other short field goals for them were against Basically duds teams They were much better than and were projected to win that game pretty steadily the patriots attempted seven field goals that were That were shorter than 26 yards this year One was against the vikings another was against the chiefs But again, all the others were against dud teams that the patriots should win by a pretty good amount to buy So when you're looking at these two teams if you're going to keep up with the patriots or keep up with the rams You got to get touchdowns and not field goals So I think that what that will do is key these two teams to be more aggressive Once they are inside the 10 yard line for this game so They had combined 17 field goals of that length this year and only five of them were against really good opponents So to me, I think we're going to see field goals in this game for sure It's why I like zirline and gaskowski for dfs But I think when they do so it will be in situations where they're not as close to the goal line So I'm going to take the over on this one minus 115 So bookmakers kind of agree here that it is more likely to be Longer than 25 and a half yards, but I think that is the right way to go given the mindsets of these two head coaches I think it totally makes sense and what's what's interesting is if you're in field goal range A little farther away from the goal line You might be more inclined to kick a field goal because these kickers are are pretty solid But you would hope that if you can get inside the red zone, etc That uh, you're be able you're going to be able to go for it and punch it in because once again It's going to be tough for both of these teams to keep up with their respective opponents All right, jimsonis of number fire. Thanks so much for your suggestions as always Thank you to those of you out there who are watching this program Remember you can always get more content by going to fan duel com slash the duel and clicking on videos And subscribing to our youtube channel at the fantasy sports network Thanks, uh, thanks once again. It's been fun. Enjoy the big game everybody. Take care