 Okay, very good morning. Welcome to a brand new month first of March I hope everyone is doing well had a great weekend I'm gonna get you up to speed of some of the major things that were in the news fear over the weekend and Also gonna look at the week ahead because quite a lot to look forward to ranging from in the US We've obviously got non-farm parrots on Friday So we get the usual kind of pre labor report build up with the ISM numbers You got ADP jobless claims and so on and we also have the UK budget Coming on Wednesday. You've got Eurozone CPI this week, which is gonna capture a little bit of focus You've also got the OPEC meeting as well where we are expecting an increase to production So all of these things I can update you on gonna have a also brief glance across the charts on a very top level side of things if you want more technical detail then just check out the Subsequent section on discord channel fanfire live users but let's get straight into it and look at what's happening this morning and Looking here across asset class clear case of a bit of risk on appetite albeit needs to be put into perspective because comes after quite a nervous week that we saw obviously just past given the Acceleration sharply in yields and a downside pressure that was putting on things like equities and also some of the precious metal prices, but a recovery has been seen and there's nothing like I think Sleeping on it such as life lessons I think when there's an ability and particularly with markets the weekend gives a good kind of circuit breaker Where markets can't trade and so therefore it gives participants a bit of a chance to just digest Some of the moves that have been occurring. I think that was important for the case of where we are at the moment given I think last week largely was a lot of Behavioral aspects that were fueling some of the move can't disagree with the directional kind of play of things just given the overall improvements in growth perception going forward because of the vaccinations because of force coming stimulus and so on and so forth, but I think it did get quite behavioral last week where The move was almost exacerbated to that degree And so now we've had the weekend you just kind of bookmark that previous week we've had a strong reversal in yields and That has meant then that t-notes are up around 22 ticks or so Just rallying throughout the overnight Asia-Pacific session And the recommencement of overnight electronic trade equity index futures are positive Asia was positive across the board. So some of the areas in Isolation we're seeing gains around 2% in the likes of took China for example The Nasdaq 100 futures already up about 210 points here and gold prices have seen a very sharp reversal from where we were at the bottom of the starting pressure when we got down to around the kind of 1715 type level on Friday and with that sell-off So we'll have a let's have a look at some of these charts then and I want to start with the S&P and the Nasdaq because I think those two there's some bigger levels on a daily continuation given. We're looking at the week as a whole and that are fairly interesting and that is these kind of rectangle boxes that I've got marked up and You can see here. We had that quite Volatile session back on the 23rd. We had to push down that we saw at the end of last week As people were was kind of capitulating over what high yields meant for For just generally equity markets at these elevated levels and we were seeing quite strong rotation out of Certain areas like big tech for example But we've come back down and 3804 and three quarters in the daily on the future was a key level We're looking for we failed to close below there Which as we were saying at the time was going to be a key Closing print for the week of where we were going to either finish in with a bullish or bearish mindset for the force coming week And we finished above that point and as you can see we've started to pick up a bit of traction here on the upside The S&P's are really up about 40 points or so And as we do move higher Just be keeping an arm the reversal of some of that price initial break So we're trading of 47s at the moment 62 and a quarter would bring in some of those previous Kind of double top at the all-time previous high and previous support resistance here But we had from the quite wine-graging price activity from Friday. So definitely worth keeping an eye there on the upside Similar case as well to the Nasdaq or be a slightly more extreme Just given the more pronounced movement the tech sector was seeing last week with some of that rotational play So on the daily here similar type of thing though a key level that we were looking at was 17 727 And we've had a brief flip below there at the end of last week But again, we failed to close that below that key level and we've just kind of sprung back higher this morning So at these would still be the same levels I'd be looking at throughout the week if we were to see the recommencement of kind of weight in the global equity picture What would what would initiate that we would need to see a reacceleration in yields in a similar fashion to last week I think to make people again a little bit more nervous In the equity space but for the time being and this morning is more about an overall I would say not that there's been one single a comment that's created a turnaround I think it's just the weekend given the market pause for breath Just to kind of gather itself and just reverse some of this overall move that we've been seeing and gold Obviously was getting hammered at the end of last week We did see if we flip over to a daily You know a break of a key level which was that end of November low print that we were was holding up price Back on the kind of 18th 19th of February broke through there and you know We ran down to these kind of technical targets. We were looking at 17 Which was those previous low on the 18th of June and we bounced quite aggressively off that now and on the upside recovery Definitely that support will now turn resistance in the short term at least so worth keeping an eye on 63 kind of 64 area as a potential then cap on some of this price recovery We're already trading up, you know, $27 for this time in the morning in the European session That's a pretty decent move seen already So could get a little bit of congestion as we start to move further up Which would be on this chart here if we're going back on the 30 minute kind of around that type of area Which would also bring in around the R1 that would need to be watched today All right, well, let's get stuck into a few of the news stories and and firstly in those charts there I didn't mention the Currency space, but that definitely does warrant a mention both major pairs are up this morning And one of the things that we've constantly been looking at here is it's really a lot of this FX movement has been dollar led of late Although obviously sterling seen a pretty decent our performance in broader terms if you're looking at the last few weeks But the Dixie has broken You know, this is that long-term trend line that we keep up on the charts from the main November test But if we look at what's happened in the recommencement of trade here We have jumped back above it and moved above and work a fairly interesting near-term technical point here If I just run my cursor over 91 you remember 91 we were mentioning last week and All the prior week I should say and that was an area where the market did respond here As you can see because we gapped up and then it then it sold off and actually moved back below the trend line So 91's quite a A decent level if we were looking at the last Two month two and a half months of price action So it will be interested to see how the Dixie can perform At these levels and and as we've seen with the general risk return of appetite Fading some of that move and that rally obviously seen to finish last week The price has responded again for the time being so 91 is quite a big level for the week Overall for for the Dixie and holding for the time being but we are above there at the moment So here does give room for a bit of scope for for dollar weakness if these general Prevailing themes from this morning can persist and obviously that will help support some of the major dollar based pairs if that is the case Running you through a few of the things that have happened overnight We did ask me Chinese data to be aware of this really hasn't been a market mover The general theme in markets in this overall reversal trade so far has been more dominant But over the weekend you had the official Chinese manufacturing PMI and you've had the case in number released overnight So the official one expanded in February at a slower pace in the month earlier came in at 50 spot six From the previous 51.3 was below expectations of 51.1 and it was the lowest level since May The case in number came in at 50 spot 9, which is also the lowest number since May So still the expansionary territory above the key level of 50, but it's slowing a little bit But is this room for concern? If anything it perhaps could be a quite a healthy thing at the moment because if you remember just around a week or so ago There was that one day when Chinese equities did come under some quite heavy selling pressure On the similar notion to what we're seeing in the Western world Which is this idea of central banks just kind of taking the foot off the stimulus easing gas And that prompted around a biggest downfall in Chinese equities at the time for around six months And so perhaps this kind of slowdowns enough then to hit the sweet spot Where it's not going to make policy makers, you know feeling optimistic about the future But not enough to change policy So I wouldn't really look too much to this to guide market direction this morning And if anything probably it's more healthy over the medium term view Just to sit around that borderline expansionary mark The other thing we've had overnight Obviously we've had this yield decline in the Asia PAC session just more broadly Worth letting though the RBA has announced plans to buy more than three billion dollars of longer dated securities Following up on a surprise boost to purchases of shorter Dated maturity debt at the end of last week And that did spur the biggest drop in yields in a year in Australia This comes ahead of the RBA meeting, which is actually going to be tonight going into tomorrow So to be aware of an interesting comment. I did see with all of this Kind of obsession with yields at the moment was a note that came out on Friday from Citigroup If you didn't see it then basically they're speculating the Fed might not intervene to stem disruptions in the market Until investors see more pain with the 10-year potentially hitting 2% before alarm bells start ringing Which would bring real yields closer to zero And that latter bit seeing as this kind of threshold overall that a lot of people would be looking at So perhaps the move got a little more to run if it does indeed at all before the Fed would feel Any kind of necessity to start stepping in with their kind of verbal rhetoric in that respect on that note It's worth being aware that Jerome Powell the Fed share is speaking with a keynote kind of US economy outlook speech I think it's an association Wall Street Journal on Thursday So that will be a key event for the week Particularly because by then we'll be able to see how this week's played out on the back of last week Have we started to see a repeat of kind of market instability and almost kind of nervousness building up Or have we restored a degree of calm will probably dictate the type of language he's going to use at that speech So overall not not expecting too much from him at least for now Other than to reiterate what he did at the semi-annual testimony not unless then we start to see a big shakeout in markets again so Check out the market watch podcast I did with head of trading peers on Friday if you just go on to Spotify or Apple and just search market watch amplify live peers and I had a really great chat about this very subject It's pretty worth having a listen to if you get to get the chance otherwise Just going through the kind of other stories that are in play and things to be aware of Gotta talk briefly about the UK budget You probably read a lot about this if you're based in the UK from the press over the weekend If you're new to trading, you know, the budget is a bit of a funny one It sounds like it's a big meaningful event. It gets a lot of air time Traditionally, it's very much not too much of a market-moving event Now a few reasons for that is that, you know, fiscal policy implementation tends to take a bit of time Also, the budget is very well telegraphed I mean as we can see from this screenshot can pretty much tell you exactly what Rishi Sunak the chance is going to say now and We've still got three days until he actually makes the announcement So it's all very much leaked and speculated Kind of gone over with a fine tooth cone from the national newspapers But the general summary here is that the government basically remains in support mode You know Rishi Sunak was kind of kind of dual-fold approach when he was doing the kind of media rounds at the weekend It's kind of like look, I said I would help the people That's what I'm doing But I've also got a level with you and be honest that you know We've got to pay for this at the end of the day and so here I think this kind of sums arise summarizes it quite well in the telegraph I didn't retweet this if you want to have a look at the details But you've got kind of got phase one which of the support mechanisms. So we are anticipating Increasing time pushed out for things like furlough and also the stamp duty holiday for properties for example That's all that we pushed out to a June Then you've got the kind of reviving the economy because we've got the roadmap in place in this four-step process And then by the 21st of June looking for a more full reopening But in order to get that going there was also talk about a restart fund for grants for certain size for some of the hardest hit Sectors like hospitality and these types of areas and then you've got phase three, which is the The inevitable which is the slightly more negative twist to this, which is the tax options And that's the one which What a few people were looking at the weekend the Sunday Times saying The chance is under pressure to bring tax rises and will freeze the income threshold for people paying income tax Currently at 12 and a half thousand pounds for three years and government officials expect to rise in corporation tax To 19 from 19 percent to perhaps around 25 percent. However, that latter point interestingly Would the amount of extra funds that they would bring in as income as a country from increasing corporation tax by that kind of margin Would be immediately offset if reels were continued to rise which obviously makes the servicing of the debt more expensive So hence the reason why this yield move is very important At the moment and particularly given the scope and and size of the rally that we we had seen so in such a short period of time last week Overall the OBR said the office of budget responsibility They're going to issue their latest economic outlook and growth forecast is so expected to be revised up and chiefly helped and underpinned by the impact of the successful vaccine rollout so far So all in all this something which will will cover in full of course on Amphi live But I'm not expecting a great deal of it or from it and I wouldn't anticipate it to be the real definitive market That's going to move sterling for cable. If you're a forex trader, I'd still be keeping half an arm the vaccine rollout program But predominantly I'd still be more just mindful of tracking the dollars movements, particularly on the coattails What we had last week has been more definitive marker for cable direction at least for the time being Particularly now that cables kind of shuck out some of that Extreme nature of the out performance it was seeing I think it's kind of more leveled up now and would be more fair reflection with the dollar Otherwise a few other things OPEC. I did briefly mention and they've got a meeting on Thursday With the need for more supply evident Traders expect OPEC plus coalition led by Saudi and Russia Will agree to increase production when they meet the decision will be on whether they were alive five five hundred thousand Bound per day tranche in April in addition the Saudis will confirm whether an extra one million barrels They've recently taken offline or return as scheduled. I don't see any reason why those two things should not go ahead Obviously the growth outlook has improved materially just given Good reason with all of the economic data. We've been seeing Just generally and then with the stimulus which at the weekend did pass through the house in the US and now goes to the Senate Which is something we'll look out for with more details and timing And so the demand picture is becoming ever more kind of constructive over the few Months ahead and so they will need to start bringing more in in order to avoid kind of a sharp squeeze in prices going going forward. So Yeah, definitely This has been fairly well prepared for I would say I guess the shock would come of Them not doing this or in fact doing even a further increase in production beyond what we've just discussed So if they were to do a million plus the Saudis million that would be That would create potentially a negative price reaction in the short term Given that that's more supply coming on that than people are anticipating at this point in time The other thing talking of that region. Let's say in the Persian Gulf This is Iran on Sunday They ruled out holding a fork an informal meeting with the US and European powers in regards to Re-initiating the 2015 nuclear deal They basically said that Washington must lift all of its unilateral sanctions first so I don't actually think that That's particularly surprising. I don't think it's a big deal I don't think it's really something for the oil market at the moment, you know This kind of standoff that we're seeing is because of how I guess damaged the relationship between Iran has become with the US Given what happened with the Trump administration? So trying to rekindle this is of course going to take many weeks if not months And so this type of headline doesn't really worry me too much or make me particularly overtly bullish on oil price The two are not getting on at this point in time and that would cause any type of conflict all right quick run-through then the calendar and As far as today's session is concerned You've got the various manufacturing PMI numbers coming out of Europe, but these are final reading so not likely to be market moving We then push on into the afternoon where probably the highlight of the day will be the US ISM manufacturing number Still expecting that to be you know in strong expansionary territory All things considered at the moment 58.6 a holding steady really from last month We also get a couple of Fed speakers Feds Williams feds Bostick as well speaking today Tuesday then and we've got the eurozone flash CPI numbers now just given the fact that Inflation is a real talking point underpinning a lot of the the yield movement as well the The breakdown would suggest the energy is expected to drive headline inflation higher in the coming months for the eurozone So we are anticipating inflation pressures to increase But the overall I guess mechanism is what does the ECB have to say and They will probably insist that temporary increases do not constitute a sustained return to its goal Of below but close to 2% inflation So I don't anticipate that this is really going to spook the market so to speak and again It's the same with inflation all over the world It's the fact that central bankers for the moment see this is more temporary than something more persistent and ECB I don't think would be any different One thing just briefly on the COVID front. I was just having a quick check and I did see over the weekend Italy Who has seen a pretty consistent rise in COVID cases? Probably the one standout of mainland European countries because generally speaking Germany is uptick to a little bit Spain is pretty much plateauing and France has has declined but Italy has been tracking higher pretty consecutively for around five or six days and they have come out and Tighten the restrictions in the land to run and some other areas and three other regions across Italy as well so just worth bearing in mind that you know despite this Dramatic drop we've seen in the UK which is still in a nationwide lockdown which has had pretty dramatic effect on The speed of bringing down case rates and subsequently hospitalizations and deaths mainland Europe is still in some spots struggling and That then overlaid with the fact that their vaccination rollout has been particularly slow in comparative terms to the UK For example, so it's just worth bearing in mind and all the more reason why I think The the ECB in particular can't really go anywhere other than just follow their their policy path at the moment Feds brain art speaks an economic outlook should be speaking on on Tuesday feds daily as well Then we're going to Wednesday start to get the indication service PMIs overnight in regards to Japan and China We then get the final readings for Europe in that morning, so final winnings again not that important We got the budget coming out of the Chancellor Later on that day on Wednesday around midday you've got ADP and then ISM non manufacturing Which of course will be keeping an eye on that employment constituent ahead of the labor report on Friday Feds 10 BOE's 10 Ray Road feds Evans all speaking as well on Wednesday Thursday US factory orders and Fed share Powell discussing the US economy and probably the standout events They come or his speech comes after the European close into the US afternoon Then we move over to Friday and then we bookmark the week with the Change in non farm payrolls Report so that's pretty much it. That's everything any other questions at all you have for me Please let me know I'll see everyone in the discord room and amplify live But if you're watching this on YouTube and feel free to drop me a comment I'd be happy to help and have a great week ahead. All right guys. Take care