 Welcome traders to another Tickmail Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 21st of November with me, Patrick Munnerley. Thanksgiving in the US means a holiday short and trading week, with the focus set to remain on the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Market pricing has switched markedly since the surprising soft October CPI print, but Federal Reserve officials continue to suggest there is more work to be done to ensure the inflation front is defeated. Market markets continue to hear comments suggesting the risk of doing too little outweighs the consequences of doing too much. In terms of interest rate increases, expect more on that from Fed Speaker this week. Data-wise, looking at ongoing weakness in housing data, but durable goods orders should rise given firm-bowing aircraft orders. Nonetheless, it's doubtful this will be market-moving in a meaningful way. November jobs report on December 2nd and November CPI print on 13th of December are really the big releases ahead of the holiday season. From a technical perspective, moving to the charts here. Looking for the Zoller index to continue its corrective move here, I'm looking for a test up into this 10770 trend channel resistance, which will bearish reversal patterns there to engage. On the short side, targeting and move down to our next objective at 10440s. At this stage, take a close back through 10850 to suggest a deeper corrective move to play out, up then to test the 10920 to 10940 area. Moving to the Eurozone, and in terms of data this week, it kicks off on Tuesday. Consumers are feeling the heat from inflation and rates. Heading into Wednesday, we get the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, 46.4 last read and services PMI, 48.6 last read. Broad-based weakness in demand beginning to really take hold, leaving manufacturing and services data likely in a very fragile state. On Thursday, we have November Evo Business Climate Survey out of Germany, last time out 84.3. Looking for a positive 85 here, highly uncertain though, and set to remain that way for some time. From a technical perspective, this is the Eurodollar inverse pattern to the dollar index here. We're looking for a corrective move to play out, a test of 10250, watch the bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side, next upside objective being into that weekly trend line resistance here, coming in just above the 106 handle. At this stage, any close back through trend channel support and through the 102 handle will see us trade down back into the prior double top resistance there, 10090s. Going to the UK with that all important autumn fiscal statement out of the way, key takeaways being from that autumn statement was that much of the anticipated fiscal pain has been pushed back until and surprisingly after the next election. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has calculated that common financial markets and the announcements of certain tax rises means he can push back some of the tougher spending decisions without sparking a fresh crisis of confidence in UK assets. No doubt the Treasury is banking on less aggressive Bank of England rates to lower future debt interest projections in scope to water down some of the cuts further down the line. With the fiscal event out of the way, obviously attention turns back to the economic data which is clearly deteriorating in the UK. Next week's PMIs are likely to re-emphasize that more companies are seeing conditions worsen and improve right now. The latest sign of the recession is coming if we are already not in one in the UK. There are also the question of whether the Bank of England will pivot back to 50 basis point rate hike in December. Markets think it will, despite some mildly hawkish inflation data last week. We're also here from a couple of rate setters in the week ahead to help shape expectations ahead of that meeting in a few weeks' time. From a technical perspective, Stirling Dollar also in a corrective mode here. So whilst we hold resistance at this 1.1950 area and looking for a move down into this internal trend channel support in the equality objective, 1.1730 is from there. Watch our bullish reversal happens, engage on the long side, togthing a move up to our equality objective at 1.2060. At this stage, any break of 1.17 will open a deeper corrective move back down to test 1.1640, so it's the next downside objective. Moving to Japan, in terms of data there next week, it's looking a little bit light and actually only get real data on Thursday. We get the services and manufacturing PMIs, 53.2 and 50.7 last time out respectively. Easing of COVID-19 restrictions has been positive, but suffering demand conditions are a key risk ahead for the Japanese economy. From a technical perspective, Dolly Yen continues its correction after trading into our target zone at the 1.38 level. So now looking for a three-way corrective move to target a test of 1.40-1.40. From there, watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side, targeting a move down into the 1.36 area, which is the, sorry, 1.3580s, which is the yearly S3, and we have the high-volume node just below 1.3517s. At this stage, we really need to see a close back through the trend channel resistance on the four-hour timeframe, coming in 1.4350s to suggest the correction could in fact be over, and then we'd be talking a move up to the high-volume node 1.4720, but for now, focus still on the downside. Moving to the Aussie dollar and in terms of data next week, RBA Governors Lo is speaking on Tuesday price stability, the supply side and prosperity at a conference in Sydney. And then in terms of data that don't really get any other tier one data out of Australia next week, I would say next Sunday, we get Chinese October industrial production profits. Policy support will aid profit growth there into 2023, and that Chinese data tends to feed into pricing in terms of the Aussie dollar as a proxy. From a technical perspective, looking for the Aussie dollar to complete a corrective move now, let's just draw in some targets. So whilst we hold the swing high here, 67.30s, we look for a test of 66.20s, also have that trendline support coming there. So from there, watch for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, looking for a break back through that pivot at 67.30s. And then on to our next upside objective, which is the 68.87. And just before we wrap things up, let's check in with the weekend risk barometer, Bitcoin, obviously still having a very torrid time of things here with FTX, debacle continuing to play out from a technical perspective. We can hold trendline support here just above 16,000. We've got an equality objective on the upside at 18,300. Any loss of the 15,700 support area, and we can start to think about and move down to that 15,000 level as the next downside objective. Remember, we still have that equality objective, 12,185, as the ultimate target for this move. As always, traders, plan the trade, trade the plan, and most importantly, manage all risks. Until next week, thanks very much.