 Good morning to CMC Espresso. The probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months has never been higher during the current economic recovery. This is according to economists at JPMorgan who find that the chance of a recession in the US economy now stands at 36% within one year's time frame. This marks the second consecutive week that the tracker has reached a new high for the expansion. JPMorgan's proprietary model considers the level of several economic indicators including consumer sentiment, manufacturing sentiment, building permits, auto sales and unemployment. At the same time, there is Deutsche Bank coming out with a research note saying that profit margins of US companies have likely peaked in the third quarter of 2014. With that in mind, the historical data reveals that the average and median lead times between the peak in margins and the onset of every session are 9 or 8 quarters respectively, which as Deutsche Bank concludes would imply that the economy would enter a recession as soon as the second half of this year. This is actually precisely what US Treasury suggested on Friday. Not that there will be a recession but there will be more economic weakness coming. So, Treasuries broke out their multi-week downtrend to the upside. This means that nominal yields went down, which leads to real yields, so inflation adjusted yields to go down as well. This in turn is the perfect storm for gold, which has been going up by over 2.5% on Friday on renewed speculation that yields will be lower for longer. At the same time, most traders think that there will be no rate cut coming over the summer months. When you look at what European stocks did on Friday and if you wonder why the DAX for example or the Euro stocks has been so much weaker than Wall Street, which managed to close in the green on Friday, then you find the reason in the Euro dollar. The currency payroll sharply on Friday's missed NFP expectations from a technical standpoint. This means that the upturn channel since February is still intact. The Euro could from a technical standpoint now go as high as $1.7 in the coming days or weeks. A longer Euro would mean a weaker dollar and this in turn is good news for emerging markets, for US stocks, for commodities and for gold. But it also means that European stocks will be under pressure for the time being as exports from the currency area will become more expensive as the Euro rises. Now, for Forex traders, there are two data points to watch. First, look at dollar yen. It dropped sharply on Friday as a trader sold the US dollar and while not yet there, the currency pair dollar yen is going into the direction of the range between 90 and 95 yen. There, the Japanese government already said it would not hesitate to intervene in FX markets to weaken the yen again. On top of that, there was the Swiss National Bank saying on Saturday that the Frank is significantly overvalued and that they would by themselves not hesitate to intervene in FX markets as well should the Swiss Frank increase in value. The S&B didn't mention a target zone at which they would step into intervene but they stand ready to do that anytime. So, FX traders keep that in mind that something could become from that side which would pose a risk to traders' portfolios.