 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Market Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN Thursday morning. Excuse me, just after nine a.m. Eastern time, jumping around, we have the S&Ps up by nine points right now. We got jobless claims out this morning. We'll get into those in a moment, but you've got markets drifting a little bit higher in the overnight session with the S&Ps up by about 210% right now, trading at 4408. We got the NASDAQ 100. You're up by barely single-digit points up by nine points right now. 15,395, you see a little bit of volatility around that 830 jobless claims number. As I mentioned, we'll get into that in a moment. I think 217 was the number, jobless claims, inching higher a little bit for the seventh straight week is the headline, I believe, we'll get into it. The Dow, check out the Dow, right? Yesterday, you traded from 34,315 to 34,050. Just like that, we're up by 82 points. The Dow up by a quarter percentage point, 34,255, the Russell, particularly volatile recently with the Russell, up by almost 0.7%, up by 11 points. Bitcoin, it's not stopping, man, Bitcoin. 37,685, I mean, look at the tear, this thing has been on, and yeah, we're pushing new recent highs in Bitcoin at 37,500. Crude, a slight reprieve from the drop recently. You got crude up by 87 pennies at 76,20 right now, the gold contract continuing to decline off by about $3 right now. You jumped in notes and bonds. A little bit of lower price and higher yield. Now we put this thing on a daily, we've been talking about on a daily basis, right? You break out of this channel line, you accelerate on last Friday on the jobs number to a high of 108,25. And we've just kind of been shopping around since then with the tenure right now at 1.0802 off by 10 ticks, you jump over to the dollar index as we kind of finish this wrap up dollar index, kind of chopping around as well at the 105,57 price point. And yeah, it's gonna be interesting to see where the market goes today, a little bit of volatility to the upside yesterday. You take a look at the S&Ps, and we're right back to where we started the volatility on October 17th. You trade down from 4,400 and change to 4,120. What do you get? You get a Federal Reserve meeting with Chairman Powell, sounds a bit dovish, right? He sounds a bit like we were talking about that the risks are now greater when it comes to hiking and the harm that you may do to the economy versus the risks that are out there for runaway inflation if you do nothing. You follow that up with a very strong jobs number in terms of actually a weak number, but a strong number in terms of bringing down inflation. The market gets back everything it gave up since October 17th, and you're talking about over a three week period, and just extreme volatility in both directions down, back up, and now we're right at that critical level of about 4,400 in the S&Ps. All right, let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. See how we're kicking things off. You jump over to Apple shares this morning. They're barely in the red this morning by about 40 pennies at 180, 289. You jump over to Google shares. Google 13318 right now. How about Microsoft recently, right? Microsoft flattened the session. Oh boy, looking at this thing yesterday, right? Within a stone's throw of all-time highs, that all-time high back there in July 18th, 366.78, and you back it up. Pretty remarkable that you're talking about well above where you were coming into the highs of 2021, kind of where the market peaked out. You got Microsoft, almost $20 above that price level right now at 363.20 right now from Microsoft shares. We jump around to Amazon. They've gotten a little bit of a lift recently up to 143.48 yesterday. This morning we're basically flat off the close yesterday at 142, and let's jump over to Disney. We'll kick it off. So Disney, with their numbers last night, strong numbers for Disney, gonna be interesting to see where they open right now. Strong subscriber ads. 7 million subscriber ads. Getting back to a period of profitability. I grew up there talking about the last year, had to do a lot with fixing, and I do have some Disney longer term, just in retirement accounts, full disclosure out there. What are you up, $3.50, something like that this morning, $3.70, $0.80, $0.20. I mean, we've been talking about, when you look at the comparison here, Disney basically back to where the world wasn't even sure if travel would exist, if parks would exist. Remarkable that you give back from $203 down to $78, but nonetheless you come into the earnings at $84.50. We'll go over their earnings a little bit later in the program as well. But yeah, let's take a look at jobless claims. As we kick off the program, continuing jobless claims rise for the seventh straight week. That was the headline, continuing. Okay, initial claims tick lower to $217,000 in the week ending November 4th. Now, continuing claims, much more indicative of potential strain on the economy, right? Initial claims, you're gonna get a lot of volatility. The people who are remaining on the rolls, continuing jobless claims, how large is the total supply of people who are filing jobless claims, right? Much more indicative than on a weekly basis if you're filing an initial claim, undeniable, tick up. But boy, some low levels in terms of where you're at, well off where we were, anywhere in 2021, of course, but a noticeable trend to higher levels. That level, 1.83 million in the weekend at October 28th. Now, remember, initial jobless claims are one week more recent. Initial jobless claims are for the weekend in November 4th. It takes them an extra week to tally continuing. So the continuing number we get is through the weekend at October 28th. We are talking about data that's two weeks old, okay? And we've been ticking up for seven straight weeks. It's an undeniable trend there. So what do we have? Yeah, we have a little bit of a weakness in this economy potentially. Economists expect the labor market to gradually cool going forward. And we'll see if that plays out, man. But jobless claims out at 8.30 this morning seems like the market likes that number. They're liking the Goldilocks scenario here where there's just enough weakness, where the Fed says there's too much risk to the economy to continue hiking. We've now have inflation going our way. I don't know, though. I mean, I was listening to Bloomberg this morning, man. What happened to the whole deal of the tough part here is gonna be going from where we are right now back to 2%. The tough part was not going from 9% to 6% to 4%. That's not the tough part. The tough part is going from four to three to two. What my brain tries to wrap, what I'm trying to wrap my brain around, that better way to savings, is that's gonna be the tough part. But what's built into these numbers, and you hear some of the Fed speak out there from the voting members themselves, saying, listen, we are going to have to cut, even if we're not back down to 2% yet, because it is a restrictive policy, and as inflation comes down, the difference between the growth rate in the economy and where the Fed's policy rate is becomes wider, therefore creating actually a more restrictive policy. So if you just wanna keep it at a, let's say you wanna restrict the policy, you wanna restrict growth by one to 2%, right? The Fed right now, let's just say, they wanted to aim where their interest rate was about 1% over what they refer to as R-Star, which has gotten a lot of attention recently. R-Star is basically the theoretical growth rate of the economy, right? And if you are matching that in the Fed to some degree, you're making sure it's not going too hot, it's not going too cool, things are too hot right now, we have inflation, so the Fed wants their number just one to 2% above, let's just say the R-Star. Well, as inflation comes down and R-Star comes down, in theory, they should be lowering the interest rate that they set, the Fed, just to keep the restrictive rate in a similar range of what they're doing. So that's gonna be the real question here, man. Do we get these kind of Goldilocks scenarios, continuing claims, continuing to rise, some weakness in the jobs numbers we got on Friday, we got a Fed that seems like they're comfortable with staying in the course right now, and we have the market that's looking for gains yet again. Not sure if the Dow, I mean, did we just miss breaking the trend yesterday with a barely negative day across some of the indices? We may have, but for all intents and purposes, we're right near those highs. Stay tuned, folks, we're coming back with our man, Kevin Hinks from the Schwab Network, you're right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them, using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. 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There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today to become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We get S&P Futures up by about 12 points right now, trading at 44.12. We got green cars across the board. Yet again this morning, to talk about some of the market action, let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Folks, every trading day, right here at 12 noon Eastern time on Tiger TV from the Schwab Network, you got the program Fast Market with our man, Kevin Hinks. Tom White, the outstanding team of the Schwab Network, they got some great guests. They walk you through hypothetical trade setups. If you've never checked out the program, you can learn a tremendous amount about options. Check it out. They're all talking about defined risk. And Kevin, we greet you again this morning and we're just marginally higher. The market march is on. What are you looking at this morning, Kevin? Good morning, Tommy. Yeah, I mean, it's earnings. It's lack of economic data. And it's like we talked about at the end of last week when the non-farm payroll number came out. When traders looked to the week ahead, not a lot of economic data to get in the way of this market right now, Tommy. Next week's a different story with CPI and PPI retail sales. But this week was very low, very light on top tier economic data. And that means whatever the narrative was at the end of last week is continuing into this week. And that's exactly what we're seeing. The earnings aren't disappointing. The bond auctions aren't disappointing. And this market is finding some comfort that Trump may have efficiently taken his foot off the break. Yeah, and it was quite a one-two punch, right? Getting chairman Powell, of course, on Wednesday and then the jobs number on Friday that might line up just that Goldilocks scenario. In some degree, we have a lot of data to continue going forward. It is interesting, Kevin, how that narrative can change so quickly in like 72 hours last week. But boy, it doesn't get much more important than a Fed meeting followed up by a jobs number for the month. And we sit at about 4412. You mentioned we don't get a lot of data. I know the jobless claims number, not exactly on the top of the totem pole when it comes to economic data points, but we have continuing claims, seems to be the headline, maybe continuing to rise. Are you watching that data, Kevin? It's out this morning, market seems to like it. We get a little bit of a lift. What do you think about that data point this morning? Yeah, jobless claims that high-frequency data is still something that we care about in terms of how it moves into the overall labor market, how it affects wages, how it affects job data that we just got. So yeah, that's certainly a normal Thursday morning look at the labor market, Tommy, yeah, it's important. But there's a couple other good stories. How about this story, Tommy? Think about this. The quietest big story going on in the market right now is the US just hit 13.2 million barrels a day in crude oil production, higher than at any time during the Trump administration and no one's talking about it. You know why? Republicans don't wanna talk about it because it's not them. Democrats don't wanna talk about it because it goes against their donor base. So very quietly, we have more US production than we've ever had during the Trump administration. It's fascinating. There's a story about 48 tankers coming to the US to fill up with crude oil. We are exporting more crude oil than ever before. It's an unbelievable story. If you wanna think about why crude oil can't catch your bid and it's sitting in the mid 70s, Tommy. I had the chart up of light sweet crude as you were talking about it and boy just remarkable, especially the recent drop off from that $90. But boy, you back it up a couple of years, the war going on, you got Russia, et cetera and just crude pretty resilient with the 76 price point right now. You make a great point. I just had a vacation last week, Kevin drew up to the Great Smoky Mountains in Tennessee, put some miles on the car and I appreciated the price of gas doing about 1600 miles in a week. I did. With that in mind, Kevin, man, we got some numbers last night. We continue to get some numbers this week. Do you guys have any equities you're talking about on fast market at 12 today, Kevin? A stacked lineup for trade today, Tommy. We'll look at Nvidia, like fully original presentation on the trade desk and then we'll look at Apple post earnings in the final segment. So really good names today to look at. A lot of high profile things, of course we'll cover Disney and what happened to them, but yeah, really good names today. Yeah, and Nvidia, right? Boy, you talk about a chart pushing all time highs, almost not quite 500 bucks, but even this morning you're getting a lift by about $9 to 474 in the pre-market from 465 yesterday. Kevin, I always appreciate the time you take on a busy morning, man. We'll be watching fast market at 12 today and we look forward to talking to you next Tuesday, man. Have a great weekend, Tommy. You too, folks, check it out. You heard it, three great stocks. Yeah, how about that chart at Nvidia, man? And Apple, always an interesting one. The trade desk, but yeah, Nvidia. The poster boy for AI. And we jump over to the Analyze tab on the Thinkorswim platform. You jump over to the Earnings tab. November 21st is when they're looking their numbers. Now what's interesting here is, man, you look at some of the volatility, okay? When you're just going out on any particular week, and you can see when you get into earnings week how it spikes, right? So you go to November 17th, you're looking at an implied move of $22, okay? You want to go out one week further to November 24th? Well, guess what? There's a boatload of volatility in that week. You know why? Because they got their earnings, folks. And if you don't understand what we're looking at right now, okay, implied volatility going out weeks. If you don't understand that, check out the program Fast Market from our man, Kevin Hinks, Tom White, The Schwab Network. We're fortunate to have it, folks, at noon Eastern time. We play it every day. We talk to Kevin every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. I've learned a tremendous amount myself and I always say, even if you don't trade options, right now, understanding how they trade, how they're priced, delta, all of that stuff, okay? How it's priced in, understanding it can help you be a more profitable equities trader because it tells you so much about what is being priced into the expected moves in the market for underlying equities, underlying indices. So check out the program. And yeah, how about Disney? We jump back to Disney shares, Disney. Gonna be up about $3.50 as we come in and we're gonna talk about Disney coming up after the next break as we come into the opening bell. What else we got going on here? All right, this one's an interesting one, man. So Eli Lilly is out with a new obesity drug and it's been talked about. There's multiple drugs coming down the line here, right? It's gonna cost 21% less than Novos. That price tag is still gonna be $1,060. Zeppound, Zeppound, Zeppound. We're all gonna be able to pronounce these eventually. Wegovy's $1,349 a month. Zeppound is $1,060 a month, okay? Now, insurance companies have been reluctant to cover these but what is happening here is that first they have the studies coming out saying that if you take the drugs, you lose weight, okay? Well, that was enough to catch fire of course because that's basically the holy grail for healthcare, right? But then what the studies are now showing is that not only do they cause weight and it makes sense, okay? But from an insurance company's perspective, making sure that it actually translates into a healthier individual that's gonna deal with less disease, diabetes, et cetera, that it actually does lower those ailments, okay? So the weight that you lose from these drugs does result in a better outcome for your health. I'm paraphrasing and that's just from headlines, okay? I don't know enough about these drugs. With that said though, so insurance companies aren't covering many of them, that's going to change, I imagine. If they work, insurance companies are gonna cover them, probably because they'll save money in the long run if people lose weight, okay? Now, the kicker of all this article and I got this off Jonathan Farrell watching Bloomberg this morning, okay? He cherry picked this line but it can't help but jump out at ya if you're reading this article and I'll post this article in the tiger stand, okay? Here's the kicker of this. Lily already sells this same drug for diabetes under a different name, Munjaro, which has been known about. That retails for around $37 less a month and they're even listed here, Munjaro. So Lily has Zep bound, you take that if you wanna lose weight but you take the same exact drug, Munjaro, for 37 bucks cheaper if you have diabetes. How does that make sense? And then you go to Zempick at 9.36. Stay tuned, folks, we're coming back for the opening bell. 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For free, each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We've got markets open. You got an S&P up by about eight points right now. We were up to 44.13, little bit of a slight sell-off on the open. NASDAQ 100, we're pushing 15,405 this morning, the Dow up by 38 points and the Russell up by eight. And yeah, listen, if anybody has an idea how that happens and the Tigers then out there just listening, watching Tiger TV, watching us on YouTube, give us a call folks, 877-927-6648. What I'm talking about is how does that work on the drugs in terms of one drug being offered basically under two different names for two different ailments at two different prices? I'm sure there's some nuance as is usually the case, but pretty remarkable. You got Zephound, the new one, approved for weight loss for $1,000 and 60 a month, and they already sell the same drug for diabetes under a brand name, Manjaro, that's $37 cheaper a month. Yeah, either way. All right, we jumped to Disney shares. They top profit estimates, seeking extra $2 billion in cost savings. The market seems to like what's going on. Let's check back for Disney, see how they open on the open this morning. A little bit of a lift. We're up by 4.3% right now, or $3.63 to the upside on Disney. And let's get into some of the numbers because they're strong numbers, especially on the streaming front with the number, excuse me, with the amount of people they have signing up. Earnings rose to 82 cents a share. The estimate was 69 cents. Revenue grew 5.4%. It was a miss though at 21.2 billion versus 21.4. Cost cutting will move Disney from an era of fixing to an era of building. That's kind of what I referenced. That was the quote I was thinking of that he said on the call with investors. And he said, I spent the whole year on fixing. I'd love to be Chappick listening to that earnings call. He probably listens to that earnings call, right? What's Chappick doing? You think he listens to the earnings call within a year of getting ousted? And Iger's just sitting there talking about it's been a year of fixing the equity. Nonetheless, that's the truth, man. Stock prices don't lie. By the end of 2023, Disney plans to resume paying a dividend for the first time since the pandemic and addressing a concern raised by pelts. You got pelts out there, of course, fight for board seats controlling about $2.5 billion, I think it is worth the Disney shares. Now, getting into some of the numbers. Theme parks delivered the biggest profit boost. Earnings rising 31% to 1.76 billion in the period ended in September 30th. Revenue in the division, which includes products grew 12% to 8.16 billion, 55% growth internationally. Now, the streaming business losses in Disney's streaming business, including ESPN plus narrowed to 387 million. I think they've lost like 10 or 11 billion dollars, though, as they continue to get a lift on the open. 10 or 11 billion dollars, I think they've lost on their streaming adventure. The company continues to expect the business to turn profitable by the fourth quarter of the fiscal year just getting underway. So they're almost there, but boy, they got some money to make up before they get into the green on that venture. But they're getting there. Check out the number of subscribers. Now, the number of Disney plus paying subscribers rose to 150.2 million, beating estimates of 147.4. I'd argue the number that they have outside of Hotstar, which is in India, okay, and other areas, but they're paying a much lower price when you're talking about Hotstar. If you exclude Hotstar, you still climbed 7% to 112.6 million subscribers. A gain of 7% follows a year of slow progress for online services, but nonetheless, Disney's higher. Overall content spending is expected to fall to 25 billion, 17% below where it was two years ago. And they did talk about here that they are going to focus on the brands that made them. They talked about in here that they haven't had a Star Wars since 2019, and they don't even have one in production right now. I've been talking about on this program, and if you're looking for the slate of movies that really could move Disney on the movie side of things, it's like two years from right now, or maybe even three. 2026 probably will be a good year for Disney and the movies. You might get some Star Wars movies, and when you do get Star Wars movies, they're gonna have three of them made. So keep this in the radar, man. Even if you're talking about two or three years out, realize they haven't had a Star Wars movie since 2019. They crushed it at the movie theaters in 2019 with many superhero movies, with a Disney movie, excuse me, with a Star Wars movie, maybe even two Star Wars movies in there, but they got three Star Wars movies there to coming down the line once they start making them. But I think that's where the focus is gonna get back to the core business that they have made money on, like some of the juggernauts, including Star Wars. Why aren't they making Star Wars movies? I mean, how does that happen, right? Ask yourself that question. They haven't had one come to theaters since 2019. It's probably gonna be 2026 at least. That means there's at least a seven-year gap within a Star Wars movie coming to the theaters, and it's probably gonna be 789. I mean, that's just ideally. They haven't even started production on it yet. That's a flaw that needs to be fixed to put it lightly. So management broke out ESPN separately for the first time. Revenue at its sport next works was little changed, 3.91 billion, earnings grew 14% to a billion dollars, we'll call it, 981, not bad. Yeah, so nonetheless, Disney, they get a pop on the open as the markets actually pull back. You got Disney trading up to almost $90, 89.42. I do have Disney in retirement, folks, and even at this price level, if you think and you missed it, if you're scaling in for a longer-term position in Disney, okay? I like this price point. Doesn't mean it can't go lower, man. You get the market trading at 4,400, okay? This market rips lower back to 4,000. Of course, Disney's gonna trade lower with it, but you're seeing a little bit of a divergence today as we have Disney bouncing off of a nice technical area off of the lows, trading at 89.41. We just traded at 78, and yeah, I imagine it will be quite a transition when you get their online business transitioning to profitability at the same time as you have some of the streaming, excuse me, some of the movie theaters actually coming back out with maybe some Disney movies, et cetera. All right, let's jump around some of the fang stocks, see how we're trading on the open. Apple shares, as we have all the markets slipping into the red, what's going on? Let's see how the VIX is doing. The VIX is in, but on quite a drop, man. You put this thing on a 10-day, 10-minute chart, and this is where the market gets complex in my head, okay? So you say to yourself, volatility is dropping dramatically, and these are the questions we have as traders in our head, okay? Volatility is dropping dramatically, right? We were just at a 22 handle. You back it up to Fed Day, what, eight days ago, you were still sitting between 17 and 18. You go to the jobs number on Friday, we were between 15 and 1575, we're now at 1450, but it's dropping for good reason, okay? And you may see this market consolidate around this price point of 4,400. We just dropped 15 points on the open, okay? It doesn't mean you're not gonna get movement, but to get substantial movement in one way or the other, I don't know. I feel like this market just wiped out all the losses we got from middle of October, and it's probably saying we're in an intermediate range where the Fed is probably gonna pause and remain pause, but the market has to make sure that the economy's actually okay. And so we're in this indecisive spot where we got quite an acceleration off the Fed pivot, but now we're waiting to see all that economic data that will allow it to line up where we won't see the pullback that the lag could incur on the markets. And guess what's been in focus? Yields, of course. Keep your eye on yields, man. The tenure, off about 8x, right where we started off the program, my dad was in the Tiger stand talking about that dollar index this morning. Dollar index, yeah, trading lower. We'll see if that pops the market. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris' for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. 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An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit directioninvestments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors, distributor for side fund services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Back folks, we've got the markets right now, S&P up by about one. We catch a little bit of a bit off that pullback, pulling the charts over here. NASDAQ barely in the red by three points right now. S&P is trading at 4,400. We died from 4,412 down to 4,396 and we're sitting right at that 4,400 mark. You jump over to the spy. It's correlated to an area at about 3,437,50. And part of me just feels like this is gonna be an area folks because it's a visual area on the charts where it might be comfortable in the middle of the range that we've been at. 4,60 is probably a little high on the spy. Let's jump back to the S&P for some clarity here. 4,634 with rates still where they are probably a little bit high for this market. 4,150 with the Fed potentially done hiking, probably a little bit low for this market. 4,400, just right. And I say that as in, that's where we were in October. That's where we were back in August. That's where we were. Got a little pause back in June or July. It's gonna be an area that's gonna be difficult to break away one way or the other. Next week, Kevin, our man, Kevin Hinks referenced it. We got some important economic data. CPI, PPI coming out, consumer price is very important right now. Deciding what the Fed is gonna do could provide an impetus for this market potentially to trade higher or lower, but that's a nice area. And so one of the things that we've been looking at in my newsletter, Rocket Equities and Options is potentially selling a little bit of volatility. We had iron condor trades, we've had losses, we've had potential wins, okay? But looking even with the VIX at 14 or 15 folks, okay? Now listen, you commit to CPI day, you can get some run, okay? The big economic data points, they're still gonna matter. But we're over the hump on earnings. We're over the hump on October data. We're over the hump on the Fed meeting that we just got a week ago. And where do we go from there? Well, drastic moves? Not sure that's gonna be the case on a daily basis in terms of getting rip-loring rallies or pullbacks. Market just might need to digest things where they are right now, at least for the next period of month or so, right? As we march forward, as we get more data, but we started off next week with some of that CPI data and PPI, of course. All right, what else are we talking? Let's talk a little bit of inflation. We'll talk Ken Griffin from Citadel, always talking your own book. Not surprising, one of the wealthiest people in the world is out there saying the government's spending too much money. You're not gonna hear him talking about a billionaire tax. It goes both ways, folks, okay? Truth lies somewhere in between. Government is the art of compromise, okay? All that's gotten lost in the shuffle, unfortunately. We had a political day Tuesday, get the politics back in the discussion again, right? Everybody gets heated. I think a majority of Americans would fall much closer to the center and agree that there's some compromise. It could probably get us going forward. Griffin's out there saying that, guess what? Well, one of the reasons is government spending, and boy, the debt matters, okay? And where interest rates are going, that matters. As I said, truth's somewhere in between. He's not wrong, but he's not 100% right. There's other factors going on. That's part of the equation, okay? But yeah, interest rates rising, and what's the interest load gonna be? Over a trillion dollars, I think. Just on interest that we're paying this year alone because the spiking interest rates almost doubling what it was years prior because of the rise in interest rates. But he's talking about we could take some time here as we could have the quote here, high inflation could last for decades, baseline inflation may last for decades, US spending like a drunken seller, deficit unsustainable, et cetera, et cetera. But nonetheless, don't be too surprised if this battle from three and a half to three to two and a half to 2% inflation is not as easy as some up here. Now, we jump with that and we go to the house shutting down. You got the new speaker, he's running out of time, and I don't know how it gets done, man. I don't know how it gets done. Conservatives push to attach immigration changes to the stop gap, no house or Senate plans yet to avoid the shutdown end of next week. Maybe that could weigh on the market, and I say maybe. The market really hasn't cared about it until it cares about it, and it's probably not gonna care about it until we actually get into the shutdown if it risks shutting down longer than anybody thinks. Right now, worst case scenario, people are saying, hey, worst case it shuts down for a few days, it shuts down for a week, right? We take our licks, we move on, we get an agreement, we somehow stem the debt that's out of control. You gain a new perspective on life, folks, when you have a two-year-old in the house because you have to make sure things are still running smoothly in the next 40, 60, 80 years. So things have to get under control. It's gonna take a lot on both sides, but the government has to stay open. So keep your eyes on that. It's gonna sneak up right as we come into Thanksgiving, and there is the possibility. It stretches a little bit longer than anyone's thinking. We've never had the problems that Republicans had just finding a speaker of their own house, let alone funding the government right now in a Congress where the house barely control is controlled by Republicans, the Senate's controlled by Democrats in 50-50, and you have a Democratic president, very difficult in the environment that we're in right now. So keep your eyes on that one as well. Yeah, almost not even worth mentioning the details, right? Barely a week to make his opening gamut. We know how this works. November 18th, eight days away, nine days away. Yeah, Saturday, either way, it's coming. All right, what else do we got pulled up here? Yeah, we talked about Osempic, we talked about, this one's interesting, talking about term premium. Stays the Fed hand talking about bonds and how they're priced in here. The extra yield investors demand to own longer-term debt instead of rolling over shorter-term securities. The term premium, in the broadest sense, is seen as protection against unforeseen risks, such as inflation and supply-demand shocks. But what's been going on is that this is triggering bond sell-offs, shifts in debt auctions, and interest rate policy. Yeah, the term premium, and we all know things get a little wild, but US Treasury term premium surging. The term premium is also factoring in fiscal policy. Yeah, last week the Treasury Department increased planned sales of longer-term debt by less than most expected. The decision against the backdrop of swelling US deficits came after it was advised by a panel of influential bond market participants to skew issuance towards maturities. They're not as sensitive to term premium increases. So I think we all saw some of the headlines out, right, that what the government was gonna have to go to market with was not as much as people anticipated, the market like that, and that is having to do with some of these term premium increases, keeping the issuance away from those, if possible. I'm gonna post this one in the dent too, because it's a long one. I wish I could go through it all, but check that one out as well. Yields are so important right now, folks. That's what I'll say lightly. Let's check back on those yields as we talk about it. Yeah, a little bit of a reversal from where we were until about eight, eight o'clock. Eight, eight, 30. So we got a little bit of a rollover in the market, 15,378 in the NASDAQ 100. We're off by about just eight points. S&Ps off by four, Dow off by 33. We check back on Disney on their earnings, holding up well, pushing 90 bucks. It's a one-way trip, man. Strong numbers from Disney. They're liking the turnaround, and they're liking the numbers of the ads, et cetera. And it is remarkable going back to that Disney for a moment. They added, was it seven million? I mean, the numbers of subscribers, these companies add, like a 7%, I think it was seven million, right? Yeah, they went from 105.7 to 112.6, almost seven million subscribers, and that is excluding hot-star. Climbing 7%, which is almost seven million, because they were coming off 105, so probably about 6.8 million subscribers, something like that, man. 89.99, the high on Disney. Stay tuned, folks. We'll look at some of the other equities, digesting their earnings. We'll take a look at the active stocks when we get back. One more segment, don't go away. The Gold Report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The Gold Report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly Gold Report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The Gold Report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the Opening Call newsletter at TFNN.com. The Opening Call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the Opening Call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement that you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. I got a chart of Instacart up here. What's their main company's name? Let's look at it. Fundamentals on this company. Maple Bear, that's what it's called, but it is the parent company of Instacart under the symbol cart. They go public on September 19th, about a month and a half ago. They come out with their first earnings as of the close yesterday, and I've been talking about this equity, folks, just from a anecdotal perspective, just from a personal perspective, love this company during the pandemic, spend a lot of money with them on public purchases, almost refuse to use the product right now, just because it is a luxury that is too expensive to warrant it. No matter how much money you got, man, okay? And I'm not saying it, but no matter what, paying like $50 or $100 extra just to avoid a grocery trip is not something I'm comfortable with, not something a lot of people comfortable with. I take time to the grocery trip, man. We jump in, we jump in the cart that's got the racing wheels right, he drives around the Publix, we enjoy it, and I save 50 or 100 bucks because it's that much money on grocery items. And I take inflation, weighing on some of those food products, you add it up over three or four years. Very difficult for many people to stomach the amount of money it costs on an Instacart offer order just for that luxury. And I stress it's very different from an Uber ride where that is not a luxury, that's a necessity. An Uber ride cannot be replaced and look at the difference in the two equities, right? Man, Uber, look at Uber, Uber's coming, they're going for the top part of that channel on 5220. We check back in on Disney one more time, it's not stopping for Disney either. Today might be the turnaround folks, 90, 34, you're up by 7%, you're up by 585, and most importantly I think even on a skittish market, you're up by what? Almost $3 right now is the market likes the fact that they potentially have the turnaround they want, Iger getting it done, and we'll see if Disney runs with it. Yeah, some of the other companies moving, you had to arm hold things out with their numbers, dropping down about 7% for that equity out there, and NVIDIA up by 2.4% in a mixed market. S&Ps, we're flat at 4,400, seems to be the magnet right now for that market, 4,400. Folks, thanks so much for starting your trading day right here with me on the morning market kickoff. Stay tuned, we got Basil Chapman coming up next, Steve Rhodes at 11, Bass Market at 12, Larry Pezzavento at one, and don't forget folks, Larry Pezzavento in six days, next Wednesday he's got a live trading open hour, remember 15, check that out, from page to T.