 Thank you very much for joining us for this Strategic Outlook Energy Systems coming to you live from the 48th annual World Economic Forum here in Davos, Switzerland. We're looking at transformational events over 2017 and the impact that they are going to have on energy systems and joining me to take this debate further. To my immediate right, I have Rachel Kite, who is the special representative of the United Nations Secretary General for Sustainable Energy, for Sustainable Energy for All and of course the CEO of Sustainable Energy for All. We are joined by Pedro Polin-Parenchi, the CEO of PetroBus, by Ignacio Sanchez-Galán, the CEO of Iberdrola Spain and Jean Pascal Triquois, he's the Chairman and CEO of Schneider Electric Fronts. Thank you for joining me. I'm sure it's going to be an amazing, inspiring panel to kick off the session in Davos, 2018. We will be joined a little later in the session by Minister Piyas Goyal, who is the Minister of Railway and Coal India. He's running slightly late, but will join us on the podium. Ah, sir, thank you very much for joining. There we go. That's the entrance that we needed just to get the energy going. And of course, US President Donald Trump has also given us something to talk about. Yesterday, widespread reports that he has put duties on renewable energy as much as 30% on solar panels. And I think we have to start with the elephant in the room. Rachel, don't look elsewhere. Can I go with you? Mr. Goyal, well, I think that India may be struggling with the same issue domestically, but to stand all the way back, one of the things we have not done yet is internalize the struggle to combat climate change into the trade regime. And so while we have competing interests around domestic content, in this case solar PV panels, we have an imperative to drive or decarbonize the energy system as quickly as possible. The price of solar PV has tumbled incredibly over the last few years. China, obviously, has become a major manufacturing center for that. So at some point, the trade discussions which happen over here and the climate discussions which happen over here and then the domestic sort of planning around that are going to have to be a little bit more coordinated than they are at the moment. However, putting these kinds of tariffs on renewable energy is going to cause some kind of domestic disruption, how much we don't know. But I think that the most important thing is that the parity now of the cost of renewables with other sources of fuel is impressive in jurisdictions all around the world. And I don't think that this is more than a blip. I mean, you're not going to turn back the wave of renewable technology with these kinds of trade interventions. Minister Goyal, let me get you to come in here as Rachel says. We've seen the prices of renewables coming down dramatically and solar in particular down 70% from 2010 to date. Your thoughts on this somewhat controversial issue, trade, international trade and climate change all lumping together? Well, I think India's own thinking in the earlier years was quite different in terms of our ability to ramp up renewables, the pricing of renewables, and also the fact that India was never responsible for this problem in the first place. After Prime Minister Modi came in, particularly during the discussions in Paris at COP 21, I think the dimension completely changed. India took a leadership role in promoting renewables, in addressing this serious challenge of climate change, and instead of becoming an obstruction to the global effort, which somehow over the years had become the flavor. I think India has adopted renewable energy very rapidly. If you take solar energy alone, we've grown by about six times in the last three and a half years, and our plan is to go up to 100 gigawatt by 2022. Really giving a huge demand push, which encourages new technology, which encourages competitive pricing, and irrespective of its impact on the cost of energy. India has chosen to go down the path of clean energy, we've chosen that we will be a part of the global effort to promote serious, serious action on energy conservation, on addressing the challenge of climate change, and that path is irreversible as far as India is concerned, irrespective of what other countries may do. Ignatio, let me bring you in here. Iberdrola has been transforming for many, many years. In fact, your payoff line is utility of the future. So perhaps you can give me a little insight and our audience a little insight into what exactly you are saying by utility of the future. Well, I'm not saying, I think, is that this something has been said by MIT. MIT wrote a book a couple years ago in which says what have to be the utilities of the future. And it describes the utilities of the future, those one which transforming the power generation for forcing fields into renewables, those one which are investing in networks, in grids, just to be able to manage in a more digital manner, much more distributed energies, and those one which are investing in storage. So storage is because they're renewables by natural intermittent. So I think we never blow, not all we blow when it's needed. There's not always sun when it's shining when it's needed. So you need to store it that in one manner or another one. And that is precisely what we've been doing during the last almost 20 years. I think we have pretty close something like 15 fossil fuel power plants or around 8,000 megawatts. I still left a couple of them which have problems with my government because they don't live to me to close the last two coal power plant. But I think we will in one time or another one. And we've been investing in heavily in renewables. Almost now our fleet 70% is not a mission, it's a mission free. We reduce our emission by 75% in the last 15 years. We are 67% less emission than the average of the European peers. And we invest something like $100 billion between renewables and grid in the last few years just for digitalizing the grid. And we have already one of the largest storage worldwide in pumping storage, transforming low-hydro power plant into reversible power plants to be able to store it. And I think, and I'm coinciding with what is said in the minister, which is far from being negative, that has been very positive. So the company is much bigger than it was. We are five times bigger than we were. We are much more profitable. Our shareholder has already benefited three or four times more dividends. So I think it means a climatic change is not a problem. It's an opportunity. And I think that is the message I would like to transmit everywhere. I remember I discussed a few years ago with your colleague about the opportunity in India, instead we were discussing to make coal or to make a renewable. And I was saying, no, you have the chance. It's not already promised an opportunity for you to make that one because you will be much more competitive than one else in the future. And they did. We love your passion. And I can see there's going to be a lot of discussion about opportunity on the panel going forward. Pedro, let me bring you in from a petrobus perspective. And if you can reiterate the trends that you are seeing in transforming the utility, the state-owned, Brazilian utility, petrobus and your experience with the company, obviously having gone back into the company recently, 2016, to re-look the company's image. Thank you for the invitation. It's a pleasure to be here. I think that we have to start by thinking that, of course, I'm the only oil and gas company here. So I assume I will have a little bit tougher time than my colleagues here. So fine, no problems. So we have to consider that, although we clearly see that we will see the peak of the consumption of oil and gas, maybe even before 2030, it's difficult to say, depending on the scenario. But still in any of the scenarios that we have seen that start talking about coal, coal will still answer for around 20% of the energy generation by 2030. So when you comment this issue of the President of the United States, saying that he's imposing a 30% tax on renewables and link this to the fact that they are actually stimulating the coal in the US again. So it's something that concerns because probably he will see again coal increasing and probably the numbers will be even worse. I see the whole of oil and gas company in this new world of the increasing demand from society for a more greener and cleaner energy generation. We have to do it in at least three different ways. First through innovation. So it's really important that we use innovation and innovation not only in the use of the energy, but in the generation of energy. Pedro, if I could just bring you here. So it's really new technology when it comes to oil and gas effectively. That's what you will be driving extensively. Yeah, it's very important. I'll give you an example. So we are now exploring fields that are at a very high level of CO2. So what we are doing is re-injecting the CO2 in the fields. And this has a double effect. First, you are not launching the CO2 in the atmosphere. And second, you increase the pressure to extract only oil from the fields. So this is just one aspect or one use of innovation we can do. And of course, another use is to reduce very, let's say very sharply the footprint in our production in relation to CO2. So we had a 20% reduction between 2016 and 2014. Just one more big focus on reducing methane leakage as well in terms of new technologies. Oh yes, leakages. I mean, if you look to the, let's say, all the improvements, all the industry had after the problem we had in the Gulf of Mexico, you'll see that really the technology has improved a lot. So when we look to the indicators that we follow that very closely every minute, it's not every day, every minute. I mean, the reductions around, I'm talking about small leakage, I'm not talking big leakage, but the reduction is 95, almost 100%. Well, to follow on that conversation from an innovation technology perspective, of course, Schneider Electric, a big player in innovative technologies in energy management systems, automation of homes, buildings, cities. Let's get your thoughts on, and let's bring this debate back now to the strategic outlook for energy systems. The transformation that you've seen in 2017, Jean Pascal, that is going to have a corresponding impact on energy systems as we go out from Davos. All right, I think 2017 has been a quite pivotal year. You've seen at least three accelerations. The first one is a massive acceleration of digitization to the benefit of efficiency. And you see it in many things that have been evocated here, like the smart grid, if you want to share better energy. The whole chain of energy is quite inefficient, in fact, at all levels. You take today a study saying building 80% inefficient, industry 60% inefficient. So the convergence of energy together with digitization allows to make immediate gains of efficiency of 30% up to 70%. So that's immediately available. And what you don't consume is actually the greener, the cheaper, the fastest kind of energy you can generate. Second one, of course, is sharing better. It's better to consume when the energy is cheap, green, plenty full, and when the other guy next door is not consuming it. So that the smart grid and where utilities particularly have a huge responsibility in being the conductor. Third point we've seen accelerating, because of everything you mentioned, like prices of renewable storage going down, is decentralized generation. So prosumers, professional consumers, saying I want to generate part of my energy locally close to my place. So microgrid, renewable, storage, all of this. So you've seen massive acceleration of digitization, massive acceleration of those decentralized generation solutions, with Pivotal year 16, where the investment in renewable was higher than in fossil. And I would say massive acceleration of electrification. I think 17 is the place where people say cars will be electric to a very large extent. And the car being electric means a lot of implication for the rest. With Francesco Starracce from NL, we are co-chairing a group here of study at the WEF about the grid edge. I mean, what is happening beyond the grid? And we think that the biggest transformation will happen here, because all of those technologies could give a new empowerment to companies, to users, to consumers, and people who want to embrace the changes. And as we know with mobile phone, changes happen through them. The cars become an electric, our source of storage, the source of exchange of energy, which is coming to the place where you live, where you work. And that is another massive change that pushes the acceleration of electrification, digitization, and decentralization. And we combine those technologies together into integrated architecture. And we work with all the companies here to make sure that they reach their objective. According to the International Energy Agency report, expenditure on electrification, as Jean Pascal has just put to us, is now a parity with expenditure on oil. And that art recently, Rachel, for 2016, this is the first time we've seen that shift, your thoughts, because that is one of those points that is moving us along in the conversation, and we've got tangible results coming to fruition. So I think what the IEA is pointing out, looking backwards, is what we see happening in the market. So we're seeing more and more investment into the revolution in renewables. And that's global. So the investment is in emerging markets and fast-growing economies, more so even than in the OECD. And there's a debate around the ambition levels of the European Union and other OECD countries, which could be had. So we see that interest. We also see the hesitancy of investors around their tail risk in heavily carbonized industries and in carbonized energy. So you've seen what started off as a sort of divestment movement now becoming something that the insurance industry is really looking at. You've seen some fairly significant announcements. I think just last week, Lloyds sort of came out with its announcement about its holdings in fossil fuels. So you're seeing people beginning to realize that what Jean Pascal talked about, this decarbonization, this digitalization, this decentralization is offering up a vision of a very different set of energy systems for the future. And that's where investors want to be. And the question is really how fast is this going to go and how globally will it go and will it encompass everyone? Ignatio, let's talk about policy and how important policy is in impacting energy systems in a positive way. And perhaps you can talk to some of the key policies you've seen coming to fruition of Les? So, well, first, I think I would like to say my friend Pedro Parenti, that is not a fight between oil and gas toward electricity. I think oil and gas, they have to play the role and electricity have to play their own. So I think for years, and something I've seen for the last 30 years, has been burning some raw material which is tremendously valid, has been already generated across millions of years, which is oil. And I think we are using with the lowest added value, which is just burning. So I think oil and gas and sewer has a very good future as raw material for a lot of processes, a lot of things in all areas. So Pedro feels much better now. So, no, I think I'm convinced of that one. It's not a fight on that one. The point is, there are other areas we have been today, been using already oil and gas, which that is what Raquel is mentioning, which needs to be electrified. We would like to achieve the targets and the goal would we are fixing most of the countries. Inevitably transport, then you have already present tomorrow some document on this one. So areas like heating, areas like in certain industrial processes. So I think that can be transformed in using electricity generated with renewable sources which are not emitting, not polluting. But I think I would like to keep that clear. I think for years, I've been already considered as an enemy of the solar because I was already the flag of the wind. It was true. I was defending the wind because solar was not competitive. And I think I was trying to, all time to invest in those technologies which are already my economic and more economic viable. And solar today is absolutely competing even better than our technology. So I infer all the same with oil and electricity. I'm absolutely convinced a great future for oil and gas for different uses than what is being done for the last 100 years. And, but there are no other things which has been used oil and gas for these purposes which can be already made electrifying all those things which is that these are the lines with what Kelly has already mentioned. I think Pedro, let's come back to the gas equation. And according to the international agency report, gas is going to be a major player in the energy equation going forward. And it comes back to new technologies being deployed on the likes of oil and gas. Pedro. Yes, we do consider that gas, natural gas, we are talking of course. Yes, it's qualified natural gas. Yes, it's so-called a transition fuel because it's still fossil, but polluted much less than gasoline, diesel and so on. And this is a very important issue for my company because due to the characteristics of the country, we only have gas fields associated to oil in general, of course, we have exceptions. So petrol rises now around 20% gas and 80% oil and we do think we have to re-equilibrium this participation of the oil. So, but this has a let's say strategic impact because then we have to go abroad not to stay in Brazil as we decided back to 2016 due to the crisis we were facing. So we had to concentrate on Brazil and in the core business of the company to survive, basically to survive. But yes, gas is very important and we are, as I said, improving the technologies to have a better use of gas. We have a huge research center in Brazil. But I want to go back, if you allow me, to the question that you raised because I think that's very important. We look to the, and I go back to this issue because for me it's important. When we go to the electric cars, in my view, it's very important to consider how the electricity that is moving this car is generated. That's very important. But again, I'm to be very concerned and I'm totally in favor to the trend, of course, of the renewable, greener, cleaner foils. But the still oil and gas will be here for many years. Absolutely. Nobody's disputing that. We know that 1.1 billion people don't have access to electricity. We have to solve that equation as well and we're not going to do it without oil and gas. Minister O'Goyle, if we can come to you and back to that issue of policy, I think another element, if I can bring into the conversation and has already been thrown forward to is that it's not just the power sector that needs to transform. We're talking here about transportation, specifically shipping. We're talking about the trucking industry, which has to be hard hit from a regulatory perspective, potentially, to create that change. Let's get your thoughts, sir. Well, when it comes to policy and pricing, India was amongst the first country to put a 40% tax on our cost of coal. That about two years back, three years back, our coal going to the power plants was costing about $15, $16. And our tax on that coal was about $6. So in terms of policy, I think governments will have to be proactive to dissuade somewhat the fossil fuel generating sources of energy. Oil and gas certainly will have its role to play. We in India are large importers of oil and gas. So for us, there's an added incentive to disincentivize petroleum products. And therefore, we have a huge taxation on petroleum products. Also, because we do not want runaway consumption of petroleum diesel, also of gas. At the same time, the important thing that was mentioned and brought on the table about electric vehicles, I think one has to look more holistically at the electric vehicle story. Of course, most of the West, everybody owns their own vehicle, so you're looking at replacement. Countries like India, which are still emerging, you'd have 80% of our population which does not own a vehicle as yet. And we would love them to have a first vehicle which is electric. So in some sense, we are not duplicating investments first into the petroleum driven vehicles and then into electric vehicles. Also, as he rightly said, it provides a natural hedge in terms of storage. And what was just mentioned about the source of generation, then you can actually have power being generated from intermittent sources of energy like wind or solar. And without having to spend on storage, you can actually spend straight away on storing it in the battery which goes into the car. And in the long run, look at swappable batteries. That's the kind of policy framework we in India are trying to do. The battery technology has got to lead the charge on this one. Yes, the battery will store the energy, create it or generate it at different times of the day. And that will be swapped into the car, into the vehicle, as and when it runs out. The old batteries just swap with the new one and the old battery will then be charged whenever the renewable sources come on stream. So one of the biggest challenges for all policymakers is the fact that we need 24 by seven power. And we're not going to have... Energy security has got to be at the top of the pile. So therefore, at the end of the day, countries like India will have to depend on coal. We can't feed renewable energy into a grid. It doesn't have energy flowing in it 24 by seven. So in that sense, there'll have to be a balance. We'll have to look at energy efficiency in a bigger way to bring down consumption. And whatever consumption is there, how can that be more efficiently managed through the time of day so that the dependence on fossil fuel base energy is reduced? And policy can make a huge impact on that. That is a great segue to Jean Pascal in terms of energy efficiency and the devices that are needed to set up that status quo. Perhaps you can come in on that. I'd like to take on from India because I think it's a great example of that multiplicity of solutions. If you take our case, we've digitized the biggest oil refinery in India to make it safer and more efficient and those kind of things. I think today we are powering 25% of the renewable installations in India at the same time and that's complementary. And we are really innovating from India for the rest of the world in 40% roughly of Indian homes. This kind of hub, which is a battery digital control center to manage all the sources like renewable generators, grid at the same times. On that, we started it in India but it's now going full speed into Africa, into the islands of Southeast Asia. So we are inventing a future all together which is significantly different from what we had before. So what I want to, we always pick the traditional problem in energies that we always speak about supply, which is ideological. Okay, coal, gas, oil, nuclear, renewable, right? The biggest change will come from the edge, from the consumer. I mean, people, young or not young, they want to have their solar panels on their home, they want their company to be green. Well, just think about it. You have 100 companies in the world, the RE100 who committed to be 100% renewable not so long from now, right? You have more than 100 companies in the world, the EP Energy Productivity 100 who have decided to cut their energy by unit of whatever turnover in 10 years from now. You have all those commitment on pledges. We have made a study recently with a few hundred of companies. 80% have a plan for energy efficiency based on digitization. Same thing three years ago, 30%. Okay, 50% have a plan for microgrid, renewable on those kinds of things. 20% only still have a plan for demand response, but that's accelerating. So that movement coming from the user or not from the generation is huge and this is probably the one that will drive the thing. And if you allow me, I think what is done in emerging countries will also transform it because innovation is coming from taking a blank sheet of paper and starting anew with completely different solutions. Jean Pascal, I love the switch from the supply side to the demand side and the role that the consumer ultimately is going to play in the energy system going forward. And Rachel, this is very close to your heart, especially where energy efficiency is concerned and what the consumer ultimately can change from a consumption perspective. So to pick up where Jean Pascal left off, I think we're at this point, 2017 was a year of acceleration, of moving from centralized energy systems that got as far as they got that were mainly powered from fossil fuels and that the grid was the grid and inefficient as it was or whatever, to this very decentralized set of energy systems that we can only just begin to imagine. I think there's all kinds of innovation that is coming that will be truly transformative. And one of the problems that we have is that for decision makers, policy makers, business leaders, community leaders, at the local as well as the national level, they are operating off a sort of energy industry, including the international organizations in this space that continue a line extrapolated out from the past. The past no longer predicts the future. And so the fact that IEA has been wrong around its estimation of renewable energy penetration for the last 17 years, 17 years ago, that was maybe something that a few of us could discuss and there'd be a little bit of banter. It's now very dangerous because for emerging countries, there's a very big difference about whether or not you think that renewable energy together with storage is an investment option that's real and tangible and there for you and is going to reach, it's a considerable portion of your potential energy mix or whether you think it's only just going to get to perhaps a quarter of the energy. So I think there's a moment when the energy organizations have to step back and say, this world is a totally different one. It is one where consumers have power. It is gonna be one where the 1.1 billion who don't have electricity today are going to be demanding it and we can provide it in very different ways than we can in the future. And then there are other issues like clean fuels for cooking. Again, 3 billion people in this world today who can't cook cleanly. You're only going to talk about basic services that we have failed to meet. You were very outspoken in a 2017 interview in September on the clean cooking energy environment and the lack of investment in that space. Bring your passion to bear on why people aren't investing in the clean energy space. You've just put the stats on the table. Well, so it's just under 3 billion people today can't access clean fuels for cooking or a device that would allow them to cook. There are a number of countries, India being one of them, where this has become a political issue, championed at the very top and you start to see progress. But we decided to look at where the investment is flowing into big markets for clean fuels. By that we mean natural gas, ethanol, LPG, et cetera. And then, of course, some of the new business models around pellets and ways to use biomass in a clean way. And we found that despite all of the priority that's been put on sustainable energy, despite all of the priority over the last seven or eight years on clean cooking, almost no money was flowing into this sector, private or public, concessional or non-concessional. In the countries where the gap is the largest. And I think this is where the consumer, this is where the consumer meets the energy transformation. I need to be able to provide food for my family. I should be able to get access to affordable, reliable, clean fuel for cooking. And that cannot be beyond us as an energy, as people in the energy system. And so, a shocking, because development organizations have been talking about clean cooking for a decade, and yet there's almost no money flowing. And the lack of innovation around the building of the markets for this, if we're talking about 2.8 billion people who can't cook cleanly, and you think about all of the other things that they will be able to do if they could cook cleanly, that's a massive market. And I think that's, go back to what my colleagues were saying, it's the opportunity rather than the sort of, dismal picture that this transformation offers. Solutions in the space, in terms of encouraging that investment into clean cooking energy. We in India had a very, very serious challenge, almost 100 billion families, which were cooking through traditional, means literally having firewood come in and cook or using even coal sometimes. And that was almost reaching a crisis proportion in terms of the carbon that that created in the atmosphere. We embarked about three years ago on a huge program to take LPG to each of these families. We've done about 35 million in the last three years. In the next one year, we'll do another 15 million. And in the next two or three years after that, we'll make sure that there'll be no family in the country which has to use that traditional form of cooking. But we've not rested on that, that's only an intermediate solution. I'm glad Rachel talked about it because only last night, Prime Minister Modi while talking to business leaders talked about, touched on this subject, that ideally would like to go to the next level now. And we must look at what we can do with clean energy or renewables and create the cooking solutions. Right now in India, we have been doing a little bit of innovation using very, very simple technologies using the sun and trying to cook maybe Maggie noodles or stuff like that. But then that's just the beginning. The idea is that we'll ultimately have to take clean energy and electric induction heating into every home for cooking purposes. And that means the ramp up for heat will have to be really fast. So it's, I think, a challenge for all of technology experts. But clearly that will have to be addressed both in the African continent, large parts of Asia and maybe some parts of South America where this can become a very, very humongous problem in the years to come. I just want to open to audience at this stage. Are there any burning questions? We will deploy a mic if you can just put up your hand and state your name. Thank you very much. We'll take those two questions in the back and this one here. We'll take three, we'll take four questions. Thank you very much. Thank you. Tristram Stewart. Rachel mentioned the divestment of insurance companies in fossil fuel companies. Does divestment, whether you're a massive institutional investor or a Greenpeace and other environmental organizations actually work or does it artificially deflate the value of your shares just creating another investment opportunity for somebody else? Can I take the second question? Thank you. This is Karuna, a global shaper from the Portless Hub in Mauritius. So my question has to do with Renewable Energy and the 100% Renewable Energy Campaign. Researchers from Stanford University and other universities have come up with roadmaps for 139 nations to transition to 100% Renewable Energy by 2050. In fact, 43 countries committed to it during the Climate Vulnerability Forum in 2015. Is this just a distant reality and what is it stopping us from going towards this future? So 100% Renewable Energy by 2050. Thank you. Thank you. I'm Mark Brighton, Chancellor of Washington University in St. Louis. I served as Vice Chair of the National Research Council Committee on America's Energy Future. And about 10 years ago, we concluded that with existing technology, no new research, but with what we already know, we could improve efficiency in all energy consuming systems by at least 30%. And if we could do that in America, it would avoid the need for building additional generating capacity. But the challenge is, how do we amass the capital needed to deploy the technology to improve efficiency? Right, Rachel, can we start with the divestment of insurance companies it was directed at you? Do you have a comment on that side? Well, one assumes that the CEO and the Board of Acts and others believe that this is a smart move. Obviously, it doesn't mean that others aren't going to invest in the fossil fuel industry, right? But I mean, I think it's about where you are in the investment cycle. For those who want to participate in the management of the tail risk of the global economy of that fossil fuel segment of the economy, then I think there are very specific dynamics around that. But for, especially for institutional investors and for those that are looking at the future and looking over a diversified portfolio, then increasingly, you're going to want to be in part of the economy, which is going to glow globally. It's going to grow in emerging markets where growth is. And it's going to be part of what is a cleaner economy. And I think that that's where all of the trends are pointing. And at the end of the day, these are companies that are taking governments that face value in terms of the agreement that was reached in Paris. And under the Paris Agreement, well below two degrees, then there is no getting away from the fact that the heavy carbonization of the economy up to now is something that can't be part of the future. And so they're tilting in that direction. So, you know, how this all shakes down and who will carry the tail risk and who will have the bad assets and how they get managed? That's also another question. But I think that this movement is more than boutique. It's more than just the odd endowment. It's now sizable parts of the financial sector. And the push for transparency that's come from Mike Bloomberg and the TCFD is going to be very important because it's going to force companies to reveal how do they actually see the future of the world going forward. And so can I just say something about the climate vulnerability forum? Yes. So I think if you look at the countries that have committed to 100% renewable and the leadership that's come from the Climate Vulnerability Forum and I think there's a ministerial meeting this year which will give added impetus to that. Many of them are actually small islands. And for those small islands, 100% renewable, especially with the advances in storage is a very important and significant part of their economic modeling. And as we see from the new efforts to build a sustainable Caribbean and the efforts of collaboration that have come as the result of the hurricane season in 2017, I think that in particular for small islands, 100% renewable is something that they feel is their energy security and their destiny. And I think that how to make that work is something which more and more people are starting to work. And then I think if we can open up to all of the other members of the panel on amassing the capital to deploy technology to create that efficiency effectively which can solve our problems. Minister Goyal. Well, I can share a very good example we have had in India which will actually answer the question best. Personally, I believe energy efficiency is an absolute profit making game. There's no cost associated. We had, we've been using these incandescent bulbs for lighting in India for God knows how many years. And way back in 2015, we embarked on probably the world's largest campaign to replace all lighting by LEDs. And I remember the government used to procure LED bulbs at that time at about $6 and add all costs and taxes and marketing costs and then subsidize it to make it viable proposition for the people. We decided on leveraging on economies of scale, huge amount of transparency and procurement. And we set a target to replace 700 million bulbs with LEDs in a span of four years. I'm delighted to share with you that it's not even three years. Actually, fifth of January 2015. So we've just completed three years two weeks ago of that program. We've replaced 800 million bulbs with LEDs in the country and the price has fallen by 87%. I mean, I go to many parts of the world and powers, ministers, energy ministers thank me for India's contribution to bring down the prices. Price down 87%. 87% down. So today, and by the way, I bought 50 million LED bulbs from Phillips. I don't know whether it's improper to say that, but it's public knowledge. At 60 cents a bulb, which was earlier at nearly six, five and a half, six dollars. 60 cents a bulb. The illumination was 30% more instead of seven watts. It was nine watts. And the revolution that we've created because of that, we've reduced our carbon dioxide emissions by 112 billion tons annually. We've been able to avoid 20 gigawatt of capacity because lighting is usually in peak hours and the saving to the consumer, directly to Indian consumers, is six billion dollars every year. And what did that cost us? These 800 million bulbs, less than one billion dollars. Jean Pascal comes back to the consumer. Yeah, I would like to add to that. You even forgot to say that it's much more reliable. You don't have to change a bulb. Absolutely. So in terms of OPEX, it's even lower. So it's win, win, win, win, win. And it's only 10% of the consumption of a building. And then there is all the rest. You have your IT, which is consuming a lot. You have the HVAC, which is consuming a lot. You have the same potential by applying simple digital technology. So I really don't see the problem with capital if I want to be very provocative at all. It's a short return. We've got now a thousand of proven cases, fast deployment, low investment, not a big amount, return on capital employed on investment, less than three years, sometimes six months. Which better investment you want to do, especially on the top of it, if it makes your company and your building more attractive for tenants, for new recruit, for youngsters, for millennials. So not even a question. The problem is us. The problem is scaling. The problem is rethinking differently. The problem is going transitioning from traditional technologies for efficiency to modern technologies. It's about deployment. Where are the schools training today? Massively, people on digital technologies for efficiency. They are not shame on us. We have created our own school to open courses, trainings, and then we deploy with normal schools. So it's really, it's what's called in companies, change management. Okay. And Ignacio has managed that change management. Again, we're looking at the utility of the future. If you can pick up on Jean Pascal. No, no. I think... On financing. Because you know what? The paradox, it's too small a project that it's motivated for financial, motivating for financial institutions. So you've got to find a way because it's not enough money. It's difficult to find interest for it. I just don't want to. But I think, I think I fully agree with Jean Pascal. But I think in my point is that in, I think it's 195 countries have already signed the Paris-Portugal. Which I think that's great. But how many countries has already made a real energy policy which already made the necessary step for achieving what has already been committed? I think there are very many countries with continuous using the poll, they are not making any policy, they are making politics with energy. So they are using the energy as a political tool for their own short-term purposes. And they are not already making a long-term projection in which all these things that Jean Pascal is saying, things would have to overpass of the times of their mandate. And I think that that is unfortunately what is happening. And I think you see, I think, priorities agree everybody. Now we have in Europe, the European Commission is already making just a certain project, what they call the Winter Package Clean Energy for all the Europeans has been well discussed. But there are tremendous discussion between the parliament with a certain thing, the European Parliament, a member state with a lot of other things because they had their short-term interests, et cetera, et cetera. And I think in my view is that today exist technologies for being much more efficient. Today exist technology for making much more sustainable use of the energy. So they exist technologies which already make much more economical competitive a power generation and distribution. But they are people still because the short-term interests which are defending 19th century policies because they don't like to afford and to fight and to jump into 21st century. And I think that that's a gap. I think I will discuss in a few years ago with some of your colleagues on this respect. I think because of the mining industry, because of the competitiveness of the new fossil fuels, et cetera, they were not able to jump in their job. They said, now we would like to go out and we decide to make already huge investment in renewables, solar, wind, et cetera, et cetera. They create their industry, they are making all the things they are making. But their countries still are defending all fashion technologies because of the short-term interests. So I think if I can say something, we have to stop to making policy with energy and we need to make already energy real energy policies in the countries. With the long-term strategies, which in many countries doesn't exist. And we are seeing countries develop, not develop countries everywhere the same thing. Pedro, as the oil and gas voice in terms of Pedro Bus, can you come in here and then we're gonna go to concluding comments from our panelists, setting the stage for strategic energy systems going forward for the next couple of days of debate. Okay. I would like to start talking about the country, but not by only the oil and gas. In Brazil, in my view, I mean, doing a lot of good things in terms of the renewable and we had, for instance, the ethanol program for maybe 30 years is a very successful program. I mean, we have the fuel cars that you can use both for gasoline or ethanol. But I think it's important to mention that in terms of the electricity, we have a lot of wind generation. For instance, northeast part of the country. In some moments of the day, the wind is responsible for more than 50% of electricity generation that region. So in our starting, I mean, the solar generation because it's becoming more economic. So going back to the issue of the efficiency and the profitability, what we are seeing in Brazil is that, I mean, it's more and more, not an issue for the question of the subsidies from the government. Of course, that is still a long way to go. In terms of our industry, what we have to do is to invest again in technology, in innovation, and the way we think we can go faster because it's very difficult for big companies to change mind, and it's not only a question of, I mean, investment mind, but it's a mindset. So what we are going to do is to put in place investment fund for venture capital to hire small companies because we do believe that by doing that, we may have much faster and better ideas on how to improve in digitalization or more efficient ways to use energy or new ways to generate energy. And we are doing this now. So, I mean, not forgetting the oil and gas discussions, but looking to the future on investing in technology and innovation because that's the way to go ahead. We've got 10 minutes left in terms of this discussion, and I want to remind you that we are setting the stage for further discussions over the next couple of days here at the World Economic Forum for the Strategic Energy Systems. We are asked at the beginning of the transformation that happened in 2017 that is going to have a corresponding impact on those energy systems. So I want you to take your time. We've got 10 minutes between the panelists. I want you to leave our audience both here and across the African continent and, of course, those via web watching this broadcast with the key elements as you deem them appropriate for the discussion on energy systems as we go forward for the next couple of days. This is your time to shape the conversation. You're all passionate at the stage, sir. Well, taking a cue from the discussion earlier about a world by 2050, which is 100% clean energy. My own sense is it fits in very well with the theme of divorce this year, a shared prosperity in a fractured world. If one was to look at energy consumption patterns instead of taking the country as a unit, but taking the world as a unit, and transmission costs have over the years come down. They're more affordable now. There you have transatlantic and ocean transmission lines coming up. You have wind being generated at different places all over the world at different times of the day, solar being generated at different times of the day. If one was to imagine, and I don't think it should take us 32 years to get there, one can really, if we all put our combined might together and work like we did in Paris, where the 195 nations really collaborated in that effort. Everybody brought in their INDCs on the table, save and accept a few, most are working towards achieving that. If you were to look at the world as a grid and in some small sense, we in India successfully experimented with one nation, one grid in the last few years. And therefore, I can say with some sense of background that if we were to look at the world as one grid and look at transporting or transferring power to demand areas at different times of the day, we could actually transition much faster to a low-cost future for energy, for a future where you could look at 24 by 17 energy powering the world. And I think, as Pedro rightly said, innovation technology won't take that long once the dimension is set, that despite all the issues where we have a fractured world, at least on addressing the concerns of climate change, we are one, we're gonna share our technologies, we're gonna work together as one family and ensure a bright future for the next generation. I like that, looking at the world as one grid when it comes to energy systems. We are one. Jean Pascal. So my, we're gonna keep investing in India. That was, right? Now if, I think we should realize we're at inflection point, electrification massively increasing, that's not going against oil, it's another reality but really accelerating. Again, I spoke a lot about it, digitization and decentralization. This has one massive impact, which is consumers are in charge of what they want to do. What were, a thing that was taken for granted in the past is not the case anymore. And they've got plenty of elements on their phone in real time and that will be augmented by one thing which is really accelerating also at the moment, which is artificial intelligence because it will make it simple. AI is a new user interface. What brings you, what makes sense to the data which is collected. I think it's fantastically exciting. I'm not sure it's one grid. I would say decentralization is actually probably the contrary. Grids put back in the hands of communities, local communities with lighter touch points. So it's probably going- That localization theme. But I tell you one thing, our experience, you digitize something, you give the data to somebody, they immediately save 10% because people want to do good. If you just tell them it's like when you start a diet or that kind of thing, just the fact that you go on your scale every day, already you are better because you know what you have to do. And make empower people, make them responsible. The three things that we talked about are just going into the direction of higher empowerment. The biggest challenges I think we have to resolve is skills, rethinking differently, like Inesio was saying, just thinking differently. Making sure that we've got the right tools for financing. So most of what we described doesn't need big financing, but it needs adapted financing. The other, the International Energy Agency also throwing forward, of course, to China's change in policy direction with a strong focus on environment as one of the key shifts. I'm just throwing it out there. And then you can't forget the US, the shale gas, the shale and the gas story from the US shale gas. And that impact that it will have on the broader energy system globally, obviously at lower prices. I'm just again, putting out two shifts at the International Energy Agency as brought to bear in the conversation into 2018, Inesio. I fully subscribe, has been said by my colleagues before. My feeling is that industry and civil society is ahead of the politician in most of the countries. So in all the things related will come out to change, in all the things related with energy transformation, in all the things related with the consumer behavior. So, but INC is what I was saying before. I think politics, energy has been used as a political tool for many years. And in the sector for 20 years, I've been already had several ministers in most of the countries were present. And most of them are already repeating that the predecessors made mistakes and they're going to make something right in the future, et cetera. But the fact they make again mistakes and who is paying the mistakes? Consumers and shareholders. And that is the reality in most of the countries. I think it's, we need once forever to try to jam and insist on that one, to make a real energy policy in most of the countries. And what means energy policy? Is to define what is going to be the demand? How the demand is going to recover? What is the investment required? Because technology exists, technology exists. How it's going to pay, et cetera, et cetera. How it's going to refinance? What is going to be taxation? If they have subsidies or taxes, et cetera, et cetera. And against that, what they are moving? We are moving to countries where they're putting caps in the tariffs. There are countries where they are already intervening, intervening, intervening, which is precisely on the policy direction. So instead of attracting capital to transform industry, then doing all the necessary for not doing anything to attract this thing and not transforming anything. I think I can put example for countries where they already raised their margin very low and they are not succeeding, the new power plan will be built because they are just doing the things in the wrong manner. So I think, I keep a word, less policies with energy, more energy policy. Emergency in that message, Pedro? Okay, so I think that when we look to the oil and gas companies, again, innovation, digitalization is very important. Second, reduce our carbon footprint. And last but not least, in new forms of cleaner energy. And then we see that the necessary changes will not be made individually. That's very important for us, but we will rather be incremental and the result of a collective effort. Just by collaboration, knowledge and technology, we will always be able to go deeper. And that's the way the industry think that we have to work. And then just to mention, it's very, Petrobras is very likely to become a member of the Oil and Gas Industry Climate Initiative, OGCE. And we are looking forward to join these efforts on climate change responses. It will be a very important place to discuss within the industry and the industry's clearing concern in respond to the needs and to demands of the society. We have it very clear. And again, for big companies, mindset sometimes difficult to change, but at least we are aware of the demands of the society. Rachel. So if we close our eyes and we think what the world's gonna look like in 10 years, and we think about buildings, storing energy, feeding it back, the extent of AI and digitalization, available to people on low income, not just something for those who can afford an iPhone, it's a completely different system than that with which we have grown up. And so the challenge is one of leadership. How can we have leaders today who are prepared to manage and to lead to that world, which is tantalizingly close already, and not to just keep on creating policies and systems based on what we grew up with? And so I think that we're at that pivot moment. So when you take the digitalization, the decarbonization and the decentralization that we've all been talking about, you're effectively talking about the democratization of energy systems. That used to be scary, but we're seeing leaders, business leaders, and elected leaders around the world not being scared by that now, but embracing that because that's going to be the cheapest, easiest way to get reliable and affordable energy as well as clean energy to everyone who needs it. And when you think about the consumer, the consumer doesn't wanna engage in a political debate around energy. They wanna be assured that they can access energy services for the things that they want, a cool classroom in summer, a warm clinic to visit and get good, reliable healthcare. And they want to be reassured that the energy services, whether they're decentralized or not, are not going to poison their health, affect their wellbeing, close down their jobs, make their cities unlivable. And I think that it's in that context that energy leadership is beginning to emerge. And I'll just go back to the question from the president of Washington, the University of St. Louis. I live in the United States and I am driven to distraction by this ping pong or tennis match which is played between different parts of the debate around who's gonna create the most jobs. You know, are we gonna subsidize the past and to secure jobs within the coal sector or are renewables gonna create more jobs? First of all, I think the evidence is pretty clear. What we never discuss is in red states or blue states, what Schneider Electric and Johnson controls and everybody else can do, community by community in assuring that 40% of the emissions reduction is gonna be achieved by efficiency and a total government approach to energy productivity. And that's not cutting off anybody's nose and that's a conservative value and it's a liberal value. And for as long as leadership doesn't emerge around something as banal as energy productivity, you are simply going to push off your own ability to ride the crest of this wave. The energy transition came in 2017, it's rolling. The leadership challenge is now are you gonna surf it or are you just gonna get swallowed by it? Rachel, a powerful point to leave our debate on. Thank you very much to our panelists for the robust debate. Thank you to our audience and thank you for the interactivity. And thank you to our audience joining us from the African continent and via webcast for CNBC Africa debate. Thank you.