 37 and folks we're gonna jump over and talk to our man Teddy Kegstad as we do every Wednesday at 40 past the hour. You can check out Teddy's outstanding Tiger Forex report folks. He puts that out weekly Monday mornings updates throughout the week when warranted. You can check that out right under the newsletter tab on the front page of TFNN. You hit subscribe. You can sign up for $97 a month folks. It comes with a 30 day money back guarantee. Okay. You subscribe. You get it for 30 days. It's not something you think that is, you know, you're gonna keep for whatever reason you cancel it. You get a money back guarantee. You can't go wrong. And don't forget he's got a couple of outstanding webinars under the services tab as well, whether you're talking about capitalizing on time with calendar stock option spreads or Japanese candlestick pattern stock and option strategies. Check those out as well $97 under the services tab and let's jump into it. Teddy Kegstad. Good morning. Good morning Tommy. So we got a little bit of a hot CPI number yesterday. We have yields rising a little bit. It seems like the conversation persists Teddy as where does the Fed go from here? Are they gonna give us the cuts that the market thinks in every time? It seems like this inflation presses on. And again, we look forward into the market, but the market rising a little bit. What's your take kind of maybe on the heels of that CPI number yesterday, just some of the action that we have chopping around in this market? Well, you know, from unemployment to CPI really once again just reinforces what I've been saying for a year now is that the economic numbers really are gonna be the drivers for direction when it comes to yields especially. I mean, you saw Friday unemployment ticked up just slightly higher, which we know the Fed wants that would move them towards cutting rates sooner than later if employment goes up. So that was favorable for the trade on Friday. We saw the US dollar get hit and they really pressed the move going into Friday. There was a lot of sell signals and buy signals that were triggered in a bunch of different currency pairs. And in the Tiger Forex report, I pointed out that, you know, we had this unemployment number that helped surge the dollar weakness. But we had CPI that was ahead of us and I'm like, you have to be careful. We're either at a point where the market's gonna accelerate the trend or we're coming because we were hitting key support and resistance levels going into Friday's close. That being said, CPI counterweighted what happened on Friday's unemployment number and it puts us back into the inflationary trend, not to mention we know the crude is once again pressing resistance, you know, and fundamentals obviously are bearish or assuming are bullish for crude, you know, our technicals have been bullish for crude. We've been talking about that now for weeks, although slight and gradual they have been bullish, you know, higher move highs and higher move lows. So I think that in the inflationary environment is something we really have to key off of because, you know, like look at the Swiss. Since Friday, you know, basically even including Friday, it's been caught in a half a dollar range. It's one of the few currencies that has stayed pretty much static in the midst of a lot of volatility on Friday and also yesterday, you know. So I mean, if you want to talk about some individual markets and some levels, I can, like we can talk with that one. But I think you really have to watch any inflationary indicators that could push yields higher because right now I think that, for instance, like unemployment showed us that if you have just the smallest amount that looks deflationary or the Fed is going to cut, wow, what a move you're going to get. It was barely a tick up and unemployment that caused yields to drop significantly. Then we have reinforcement of the trend, which is higher inflation with the CPI bump in yesterday and look at what it's done, how it could easily pull back that excessive, you know, trend, you know, as what was leading into Friday into the new week, you know. And I think that we really have to be cognizant of that one. And the fact that the Swiss has gone sideways, I mean, there's no real big breakout and look at what's happened to the US dollar yen, the balance they've had over the past couple of sessions. What is that related to? Obviously higher crude prices and the CPI number, meaning that the Fed is not going to loosen at least until June. I think it's pretty solid now that June for sure is the soonest that they're going to loosen. And I think it's now looking more towards if we have even any more inflationary spikes of any kind that you're going to see it pushed out towards mid-summer, maybe even the end of the summer. I appreciate the take, man. And yeah, I agree with a lot of what you said. And it is pretty remarkable that it seems like every time we have these conversations, the market says, you know, we're going to be there in two or three months. And then you get forward two or three months in data. And over those two or three months, the market says we need to wait a little bit longer because the data is just not there. And here we are again. And I completely agree that, you know, we got a Fed meeting folks one week from today, of course, March 20th. We'll see we get a new dot plot. We'll see what Chairman Powell has to say just about all that data that you kind of gave us some conflicting data in there. And they're not looking for conflicting data. And that's the problem, right? They're looking for a little bit of clarity. And I think we're all kind of finding out as time marches on that that clarity is a little bit tougher to come by, especially when you talk about getting back down to two percent. It's remarkable how we've kind of shifted back to the beginning of the conversation. I was doing this in my own head recently, Teddy, just even just as the data you were talking about, we said, this is what everybody talked about, man. We're stuck between two and four, right? We're stuck at two, you know, three point five. Inflation has gotten pretty sticky between three and four. Of course, you could go from eight percent to four percent. But what's going to happen when you got to go from four to three and you got to go from three to two? And and and we're writing that right now. And boy, it seems like it's pretty difficult. The market keeps getting ahead of itself. But yeah, it's and then you got to reverberate when that data comes in. Yeah, where do you want to jump around? Let's jump around to some of the individual ones, if you can. OK, you referenced some of them, but where do you want to kick things off? All right, well, let's talk about the US dollar yen because I know that I got it. I know you guys like. All right, so Friday said a nice little, you know, we're we're coming down on some nice support. Obviously, the trend is higher move highs, higher move lows. It was a nice corrective move that I think ended as a Friday. Reason being that with crude right now pushing, you know, up towards where we're going to probably get into the $80 level and also with yields as long as yields stay static to potentially getting higher. I can't see why you can't be a bull for the US dollar yen. I'd be buying. We were talking about this last week about it's a buy break situation. And that was before they had the really big slide into unemployment. We had just broken out to the downside last week. The numbers helped to really and that's the other thing. Once again, exacerbating the move on Friday because of unemployment and that spike low. Now, one thing I remember as being a bond trader for so long, you know, since, you know, 1990 is that unemployment is one of the biggest numbers of the month, no matter what for the interest rate market. I don't care if it's when the Fed is planning on doing anything, what stage the economy is or whatever. Sometimes unemployment is a non-event. Nothing happens really. Nothing. Just and then all of a sudden it's a dead Friday. It means the only game in town is the S&Ps. But then you have days like last Friday where you have such an exacerbation of trend that you have spikes then. And it's really, you know, like on a day like Friday going to the close, you'd be like, how can you buy the bond market on a day like that? You know, especially like we don't know what's going to happen on CPI. Well, I'm not saying always fade that move. But historically, that does happen a lot. And then when it gets confirmed with a counter number like we have where we had, you know, bullish, you know, one way and negative. The other way between the two numbers that solidifies that bounce. And that's what we have going on in the US dollar yen right now, especially with the uptick in crude, you know, and we're still below the 150 level. See, right now the yen is trading out what 147.84. We're two dollars below the critical number that the BOJ doesn't like. So we know that right now, even though the BOJ is probably going to start to do something eventually, we know that. But, you know, two weeks ago, the market was going sideways where it was trading above 150. You're wondering, is the BOJ going to intervene today on any given moment? You don't know. Now we're two and a half dollars lower until we get back above 150. I think there's no risk of BOJ intervention now. You know what I mean? So we should see it, you know, get back above 150. And then we'll have a nice conversation then. Can you hang with us through the break? Sure. Perfect. We'll finish it up. We'll do a couple of the currencies, folks. We'll take a look at that crude market one more time with Teddy when we get back. Stay tuned. We'll be back in three minutes. Don't go away. Welcome back, folks. We've got the S&Ps off by eight points right now. You have markets slightly in the red, NASDAQ 100. Negative by about 129. That's a slide of about seven-tenths percent. We're on the line with our man, Teddy Kegstad. We're talking some currencies. And yeah, that's quite, when you look at that yen, Teddy, I appreciate the take gold, of course, really reacting to the yen. But are there any other currencies you want to jump through in the final four or a few minutes as we wrap up the program? Sure. Why don't we talk about the British Pound, U.S. Diorotaller. Okay. They got anything going on in the tabloids over there in Britain recently? No, go ahead. No, what I think right now it's more of a technical trade than anything. What we did have nicely last week was we broke out to the upside. The market had been wedging and consolidating for the past few months. We've made a nice higher move high. We've exploded into unemployment. And once again, spiking high in the pound U.S. dollar. We had an upside target of the 2865 level, which it pierced through that last Friday. And then it fell back over the past few sessions. So right now I think that the trend obviously has broken out to the upside. So with this long sideways range trade that we've had has helped to press the bull, but it's a sleeping bull. It's not a very aggressive one. It's waiting for yields to show a sign that they're going to pull back sharply. So and right now I think that's what we have to watch is the yield. So let's say that over the next couple of sessions, like we don't really have any economic numbers now. We have Fed Day coming up next week. So it's very likely that we've set the high of the range or the low of the range from Friday going into the meeting, meaning now that we're gonna start chopping around and find a median and we're gonna start narrowing our trade going into next week's meeting. The reason I say that is the Swiss is the biggest indicator. If all these currencies made these moves with interest because of the interest rate moves, because of the numbers on Friday and also Tuesday and the Swiss state static, that means they're really waiting on the Fed meeting. And they're a base currency. Like when they go flat line and the other ones are jiggling, that's when you know unless that thing starts to move the rest are coming back to a median. It's very odd or rare that they would really have an exacerbated trend when that one is trendless. And I think that's a nice indicator for you. That's some great information, man. That's some great experience. I'm sure we're talking and I appreciate it. And I know the listeners do as well. Teddy, thanks so much, man. And we'll talk to you on Fed Day next Wednesday. I look forward to it. Sounds good. All right, take care, folks. Thanks so much for tuning in. Stay tuned, Basil Chapman's up next.